Category Archives: Article

May 13, 2019. Azita Berar on ‘ILO: Celebrating a century of international cooperation on the governance of labour’. GLO Policy News No.1

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Azita Berar Awad is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Former ILO Director, Employment Policy

GLO Policy News No. 1 – Theme 3. Future of Work

ILO: Celebrating a century of international cooperation on the governance of labour

by Azita Berar Awad

This year is the Centenary of the International Labour Organization (ILO). Since its establishment in 1919,  by the Versailles Peace Treaty at the end of the first World War, the Organization has shown a remarkable resilience, unique amongst the multilateral institutions of global governance. Over 100 years, ILO has survived another major war. It also surfed over and navigated through  several global and regional economic and social crises and tectonic geopolitical shifts among its constituent members. Created in 1919, on the promise of sustaining peace by promoting social justice, the Centenary celebrations across the world, are a good opportunity to reflect not only on past achievements, but on the relevance of this  proposition for the future.

The Future of Work is the central theme of ILO’s Centenary deliberations. To this effect, an independent Commission composed of 27 members representing diverse interests was established in 2017 and issued its report in January 2019. The International Labour Conference, the main governance organ of the institution, bringing together governments, employers’ and workers organizations from 187 countries, will meet in June 2019 in Geneva  to draw its own conclusions in the form of a Centenary Declaration.

In this GLO Policy News, six issues drawn from a review of ILO’s rich history are highlighted. (See for a list of publications on ILO history.) They relate to the Organization’s foundational values and their evolution in a century of economic, social and technological transformations. On each issue,  we bring out key challenges, the resolution of which  will  shape ILO’s effectiveness in its second century.
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What we should know

  • The ILO was born at the intersection of the twin quests for International Peace and that for Social Justice. Its foundational act, the ILO Constitution, is  Part XIII of the Peace Treaty that put an end to World War I. It was adopted by the Versailles Peace Conference on 28 April 1919. The Constitution envisioned a new international order, against a backdrop of tremendous human sufferings during World War I, widespread poverty and appalling conditions of work in most of the 19th Century and early 20th Century. The  industrial revolution had brought about progress, but also misery and injustice. Protest,  social unrest and revolution had ensued. This vision in which “lasting peace can be established only if based on social justice”, resonates strongly  a century later, for all those concerned with the rising and widening economic and social inequalities, for the left-behind of globalization, and for all those who look to the future with apprehension. Will there will be work for all who seek to work and will it be decent, they wonder. While international wars have diminished in recurrence and intensity, millions of people are caught in numerous internal strife and protracted crises of various types in different regions of the world. Current conflicts that have dreadful internal and cross-border consequences,  such as the movements  of internally displaced persons (IDPs), economic migrants  and refugees seeking asylum.
  • ILO is the only of the three international institutions established by the Versailles Treaty still functioning a century later. The League of Nations and the Permanent Court of Justice, the other two institutions,  were paralyzed and later formally abolished to be replaced by the new global governance system of the United Nations. The ILO became the first Specialized Agency within the new frame of the United Nations System, soon joined by several other new international institutions with dedicated technical specialization.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration, adopted on the 10th May of 1944,  and embedded later into the ILO Constitution, while maintaining the ILO’s primary function of developing international legislation to promote humane conditions of work, broadened the original vision in several ways. (To date, there are 189 Conventions and 205 Recommendations and 4 Protocols covering a wide range of work related issues and adopted after elaborate international tripartite negotiations.) With emphasis laid on human rights, including the freedom of association (for workers and employers),  the Philadelphia Declaration is a precursor to the Universal Declaration for Human Rights adopted in 1948 and a source of inspiration for many rights included in  the two international Covenants of Civil and Political Rights and Social, Economic and Cultural rights adopted in 1966.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration also introduced the objective of full and freely chosen employment and the commitment to promote employment, acquisition of skills, and regulation of labour migration as contributing to full employment. Despite the Cold War and the confrontation between competing social ideals, ILO’s model of international cooperation adapted and evolved relatively well in the 1950’s and 1960’s, in a context of high growth, full employment and welfare state in industrial countries. During the same period, the decolonization process which saw the membership of the Organization grow rapidly from 40 countries in 1919 to 187 today, gave more sense to the universal relevance of the ILO while bringing out the different and diverse realities of the world of work in developing countries. The World Employment Programme launched in 1969, at mid-point in ILO’s history, responded to this developmental challenge by treading new field, uncharted before. Examples are its pioneering work on rural poverty, its coining of the concept of the informal sector and its innovative lens on the gendered division of labour.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration clearly  proclaimed the primacy of human and social progress “in conditions of freedom and dignity, of economic security and equal opportunity” over economic and financial considerations. It mandated the ILO to examine all international economic and financial policies in the light of this primacy. We know that the globalization story in the 1980’s and the 1990s, and the neo-liberal model that sustained it and expanded it to all regions, unfolded differently. The International Financial Institutions (IFI) set  policy frameworks  based on the primacy of financial solvency, despite its high social adjustment costs. The policy responses to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and to the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, have shown that policy coherence, between the IFIs and the United Nations system, when addressing the social and economic challenges of globalization or responding to major global economic and financial crises, remains a challenge. The ILO’s 1998 Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work represents a rare consensus platform, a level playing field in globalizing economies in respect of the core labour rights  of elimination of child and forced labour, non-discrimination at work, and freedom of association.
  • It is good to recall that the ILO is the only United Nations agency that is not only inter-governmental but embodies an enlarged democratic system representing all three parties of the world of work. Since its foundation, the ILO functions on the premise of tripartite dialogue and cooperation at national and international levels. Governments, employers’ and workers’ organizations voice their views, negotiate and vote independently in all ILO’s organs and working processes. This pioneering and revolutionary model of tripartism is obviously  confronted with its own challenges. A major one is the representational challenge. The declining membership of trade unions reduces  their bargaining power and hence their voice in policy-making. The Employers’ organizations often do not include the two extremes of the business sector, that is the major multinationals and global supply chains that operate across borders and different national legislative frameworks, often setting their own ethical agenda and codes of conduct. They do not encompass either the myriad micro and small business operators , most of which are in the informal economy. The  growing movement of civil society organizations (other than employers and workers organizations) also claims a more active and systemic engagement with ILO.

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This brief could only touch on a few issues. It is merely an invitation to dig deeper into the ILO history, many aspects of which are yet to be researched and written. Looking into the second centenary, this is an invitation to reflect on the philosophical notions of human work and social justice and on the values of democratic dialogue and international cooperation in a context of fast technological disruptions such as the artificial intelligence and all embracing digitalization, environmental degradation and widening inequalities. Will the human agency prevail in innovative social engineering and in shaping the future in fairness in a more complex and uncertain world?

NOTE: Opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
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April 10, 2019. All GLO Discussion Papers of March 2019 & the Discussion Paper of the Month suggesting that return migration improves social norms in Mali.

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month in March finds that girls living in localities with return migrants in Mali are less likely to be circumcised. This effect is driven mainly by the returnees from Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting that, in addition to punitive action against those who practice Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) or information campaigns, having lived in an African country where FGM practice is not customary is equally influential. This is evidence for the relevance of social remittances through return migration here by improving social norms.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March

GLO Discussion Paper No. 329, 2019.

Female genital mutilation and migration in Mali. Do return migrants transfer social norms? – Download PDF
by Diabate, Idrissa & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine  

GLO Fellow Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Paris School of Economics.


Sandrine Mesplé-Somps

Abstract:   In this paper, we investigate the power of migration as a mechanism in the transmission of social norms, taking Mali and Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) as a case study. Mali has a strong FGM culture and a long-standing history of migration. We use an original household-level database coupled with census data to analyze the extent to which girls living in localities with high rates of return migrants are less prone to FGM. Malians migrate predominantly to other African countries where female circumcision is uncommon (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire) and to countries where FGM is totally banned (France and other developed countries) and where anti-FGM information campaigns frequently target African migrants. Taking a two-step instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of migration and return decisions, we show that return migrants have a negative and significant influence on FGM practices. More precisely, we show that this result is primarily driven by the flow of returnees from Cote d’Ivoire. We also show that adults living in localities with return migrants are more informed about FGM and in favor of legislation. The impact of returnees may occur through several channels, including compositional effects, changes in return migrants’ attitudes toward FGM, and return migrants convincing stayers to change their FGM practices.

GLO Discussion Papers of March 2019

339 Monopsony Power and Guest Worker Programs  Download PDF
by Gibbons, Eric M. & Greenman, Allie & Norlander, Peter & Sørensen, Todd

338 Personality Traits and Performance in Online Labour Markets – Download PDF
by Mourelatos, Evangelos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Tzagarakis, Manolis

337 Out-of-Partnership Births in East and West Germany – Download PDF
by Jirjahn, Uwe & Struewing, Cornelia

336 What Is the Value Added by Using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation? – Download PDF
by Strittmatter, Anthony

335 Returns to Investment in Education: The Case of Turkey – Download PDF
by Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Psacharopoulos, George & Tansel, Aysit

334 Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria – Download PDF
by Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo

333 Assessing the impact of off- and on-the-job training on employment outcomes. A counterfactual evaluation of the PIPOL program – Download PDF
by Pastore, Francesco & Pompili, Marco

332 Maternal Health, Children Education and Women Empowerment: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from India – Download PDF
by Chatterjee, Somdeep & Poddar, Prashant

331 Exchange rate, remittances and expenditure of foreign-born households: evidence from Australia – Download PDF
by Hasan, Syed & Ratna, Nazmun & Shakur, Shamim

330 Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics – Download PDF
by Vernon, Victoria & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

329 Female genital mutilation and migration in Mali. Do return migrants transfer social norms? – Download PDF
by Diabate, Idrissa & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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“Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Experts debate this in the Winter Issue of “The International Economy” magazine.

“What problems are today’s populists seeking to address? Are followers of populist leaders driven by economic insecurity at a time of rising economic inequality and subpar growth, or by a reaction against progressive values, or both?” The International Economy magazine.

In its Winter 2019 issue of “The International Economy”, the Washington DC based magazine of international economic policy, has featured a prominent symposium of views on “Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Klaus F. Zimmermann, the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Bonn University Professor and UNU-MERIT/Maastricht affiliated economist, who is currently the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, had been asked to contribute to this debate. The link to the full text of the symposium is here. Please find the contribution of Zimmermann also below.

Related to the interactions between media, populism and migration is a new Oxford University book also free access online, to which GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has contributed a chapter. See:

Martin Ruhs, Kristof Tamas, & Joakim Palme (Eds.):
Bridging the Gaps. Linking Research to Public Debates and Policy Making on Migration and Integration. Oxford University Press. Published online March 28, 2019.

Chapter 8: Klaus F. Zimmermann: Gaps and Challenges of Migration Policy Advice: The German Experience

LINK TO THE FULL MANUSCRIPT OPEN ACCESS.

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Paper submission to Brasov conference on 31 May to June 1, 2019 still possible until April 26.

International Conference„Inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Challenges, measures and solutions” (ISEG 2019).

Place: 31 May-June 1: Brasov, Romania, at the Transilvania University of Brasov.

Organizers: Transilvania University of Brasov; Romanian Academy, Institute of Economic Forecasting; Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Invited Speakers are Filomena Maggino and  Klaus F. Zimmermann.

To participate: Register until April 26 through the conference website and send an abstract asap. CONTACT.

GLO is interested in research papers for a special session related to the Labor Markets of Countries in South East Europe; GLO members who wish to contribute to this are invited to send an abstract by April 20 to Klaus F. Zimmermann. (klaus.f.zimmermann@gmail.com)

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April 1, 2019. Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili on their research for Italy ‘What works for youth employment?’. GLO Research for Policy Note No. 1


Francesco Pastore is Associate Professor of Political Economy at the University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli & Fellow and Country Lead for Italy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Marco Pompili is Researcher at Ismeri Europa and GLO Fellow.

GLO Research for Policy Note No. 1 – Theme 4. Population dynamics: youth employment and participation

What works for youth employment? An evaluation of an Italian regional integrated program of active labour market policies

by Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili

In a recent GLO Discussion Paper, we have studied the effect of PIPOL (Piano integrato di politiche per l’occupazione e il lavoro), an integrated programme of active labour market policies, launched by the Italian Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia in 2014, to facilitate the increasingly difficult school to work transitions for young people. The programme grouped different funding sources, including those originating from the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI), (an initiative supporting young people in European Union countries, living in regions with high young unemployment rate). The Programme provided employment and training services to increase the employability of participants.
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What we should know

  • PIPOL is targeted at different groups of people with different needs: Group 1 includes young people aged 15-19 years at risk of dropping out of school; Group 2 includes young NEETs (Not-in-Education-Employment-or-Training) under the age of 30; Group 3 includes under-30 youngsters with a high-school diploma or a professional qualification attained within the last 12 months; Group 4 includes young people under-30 with a university degree obtained at least 12 months earlier; Group 5 includes unemployed people or at risk of unemployment.
  • The participation in PIPOL is structured in three phases. Phase one is registration: young participants who think to be eligible can register on-line or go to a Public Employment Service (PES) or other institutions for specific groups. In phase two, orientation services are provided  and  participants are profiled according to their needs band; this service has to be offered to people within 60 days from the registration to the PESs. An individual action plan is established, showing the type of active policies to be administered. Phase three is the implementation of active measures, such as on-the-job training, classroom traineeship, labour incentives, support to business creation.
  • Our evaluation focussed on the first stage of PIPOL, in particular on the interventions of off-the-job and on-the-job training completed by the end of 2016.
  • Our analysis focused on 4,962 off-the-job training courses and 3,361 internships, that were completed by the end of 2016. In terms of participants, the study covered 7,175 young people, of which 4,059 women. Overall, 3,911 attended off-the-job training; 2,945 attended on-the-job training; and 319 both types of intervention.
  • To assess the impact, we have resorted to a counterfactual approach: a control group is extracted by means of PSM or Mahalanobis matching among those who registered in the program over the years 2014-16, but have never benefited of the program. In other words, the econometric procedure is organized in two steps. In step one, we draw a random sample of individuals from the group of those who registered in the program but did not attend because of the lack of suitable financial resources. The selection is done in such a way that the target and control group have exactly the same characteristics.
  • The Mahanobis matching is more accurate since it implies that only individuals with exactly the same characteristics are selected. In step two, we compare the probability to find a job by the program participants and the control group to see whether the former has a higher probability of employment than the latter. This allowed us controlling for observed heterogeneity through a battery of control variables (age, gender, citizenship, education, province of residence and also pre-program work experience) and for unobserved heterogeneity, by extracting the control group using the same pool of individuals registered in the program.
  • We used data from two main sources: 1) different data banks from the administration of the program and 2) information on outcome variables obtained from compulsory communications  that employers have to make to employment services whenever any labour contract is signed or completed/ended.

What works? On-the-job training has the greatest impact!

  • We found that the net impact of PIPOL is equal to 5 percentage point (pp) on average, meaning that people who benefited from the Programme have an average  probability to be employed 5 percentage points higher than people who did not.
  • The greatest impact was found for on-the-job training, and no significant impact  was observed for in-room training. On-the Job training  also  increased the probability of finding permanent work (+3pp). This is consistent with the view of a youth labour market where young people have excellent theoretical competences, but very little work experience and work-related competences (Pastore, 2015; 2018).
  • The off-the-job training programs did not show statistically significant impact on employment, but did affect the probability to experience at least one labour contract after 2016.
  • These results are partly due to a lock-in effect, namely the tendency of those who attend training programs to put off their effort in job search.
  • Interestingly, we found that the program has a different impact for different typologies of recipients and different types of intervention. The scheme seems to have a greater net impact in the case of women, foreigners and young people with lower education.
  • Some forms of off-the-job training still have a positive net impact on employment chances (training to gain a qualification).
  • Internships in manufacturing and construction show a greater impact than in the service sector, although the service sector is experiencing a larger expansion overall.

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This study represents an important addition to the Italian and global literature on programme evaluation regarding school to work transitions,  considering the small number of such studies, noted also in the recent review of the literature by Card et al. (2010). It is one of the first analysis of the effect of interventions  implemented within the YEI. To our knowledge, there is only a previous paper assessing the impact of YEI in Latvia (Bratti M. et al. 2018) and the evaluation of the Italian YEI (Isfol, 2016), the latter focusing on the very short-term effects. Our findings suggest that active labour market policies for youth are more effective in Italy when they are directly related to the production of work-related competences.

References
Angrist, D. & J. Pischke (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Bratti, M. & al. (2018). Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design, IZA Discussion Paper No. 1187.
Card, D., J. Kluwe and A. Weber (2010). Active Labor Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis. Economic Journal, 120 (548): F452-F477.
Card, D., & al. (2018). What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations. Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3): 894-931.
Isfol. (2016). Primo Rapporto di valutazione del Piano italiano Garanzia Giovani. Roma: Ministero del Lavoro.
Pastore, F. (2018). Why So Slow? The School-to-Work Transition in Italy. Forthcoming in Studies in Higher Education.
Pastore, F. (2015). The Youth Experience Gap. Explaining National Differences in the School-to-Work Transition, Springer Briefs in Economics, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg.
Patore, F. & M. Pompili (2019). Assessing the Impact of Off- and On-the-job Training on Employment Outcomes. A Counterfactual Evaluation of the PIPOL Program, GLO Discussion Paper No. 333.

NOTE: Opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

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March 1, 2019. Azita Berar on ‘Automation, jobs and inequality’. GLO Policy Brief No. 1

Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.

GLO Policy Brief No. 1 – Theme 3. Future of Work


Automation, jobs and inequality

by Azita Berar

There is growing apprehension about new waves of technological development in particular about the implications of increasing automation and use of robotics  displacing human labour. To date, research and policy debate have mostly focused on the estimation of potential job losses that such technologies will entail sometimes with alarmist conclusions. We argue for considering a broader frame of analysis for research and policy that takes account of wider economic and societal implications, including the distributional issues and the need for policy to re-engineer new and evolving social institutions.
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What we should know

  • Recent empirical studies (see selected references below) have focused mostly on the job destruction and substitution impact in the US, other advanced countries and in a few emerging economies. Through different methodologies applied and assumptions made to project potential job losses, they reach very different conclusions about the number of jobs and/or the types of jobs that will be substituted. Their estimates vary greatly – by no less than 5 times amongst the most alarmist and the lowest band – even when focusing on the same economy and/ or sector.
  • The new job creation impact of automation within the same sector or the broader economy is usually underestimated. There are examples of  automation technology widely used today that clearly show the positive net job creation and economic expansion. The most cited example is the ATM innovation in the banking sector dispensing human tellers. There has been massive redeployment and upgrading of jobs of former tellers to offer different and higher quality banking products and services. Productivity gains have been invested in the expansion of the sector, in turn leading to new jobs and incomes within and outside the sector.
  • Another fast-evolving technological innovation is “co-bots”, where robots “co- work” along with (or assist) human workers. Used in the automotive and the health industry for example, these have contributed to reducing the drudgery and improving the quality of jobs for humans. And potentially leading to as many new jobs for humans as the use of this type of automation spreads.
  • It is also important to distinguish between the availability of technology that could  replace or displace a certain job/task – a starting premise of recent projections on automation induced job losses – and the probability that the technology will be adopted on a large scale replacing all such jobs/ tasks. There are gaps, sometimes very significant, between the two. This gap is larger in developing countries and amongst them, where as noted, there has been relatively little research. And where the diffusion and impact of automation can not be deducted from current estimates focusing on a limited set of countries and sectors.
  • An interplay of multiple factors pushing in different directions determines the pace and scale of adoption of automation innovation that goes beyond a simple comparison of relative cost among robots and human labour.
  • Understanding the decision-making process of managers and investors in the spread and large-scale adoption of automation is also key. Rarely, automation alone, in the absence of a broader firm strategy,  provides the competitive edge for increased profitability and productivity.
  • There are also wide sectoral variations in the nature of automation innovation and the dynamics of job, income and productivity gains and losses that could incur. A sector/industry focus would shed more light into specific dynamics.  Another under-researched area is the dissemination of technology within sectors and across borders including through global supply chains in highly globalized industries.
  • From a societal perspective, the key issue is how the productivity gains will be invested and/or distributed and through which mechanisms and institutions. This is highly important not from the angle of equity but for sustaining demand in the medium to long term.
  • Throughout previous waves of industrial revolutions and technological disruptions, starting with the mechanization of spinning and weaving in Britain’s textile industry the mid-18th century, there has been apprehension with regard to destruction of jobs and distribution of wealth and well-being. Then and now, there has been a sharp divide between optimists and pessimists! Looking back the reality has overtaken all projected scenarios in very different directions but it has also led to social engineering, policy innovations and the creation of new institutions to tackle wider societal implications.

Will it be different this time? Context and policy matter.

Automation in unequal and polarized environment

  • This new round of rapid automation innovations is taking place amidst a highly polarized environment.
  • Labour markets remain tight: globally 192 million people are unemployed of which over 70 million are young women and men. In many instances, the youth unemployment rate is three times higher than adult unemployment and female unemployment twice that of male unemployment. And these figures do not take into account the “discouraged workers”, those who have given up looking for a job. Quality of jobs is a concern. About 1.4 billion people are working in “vulnerable forms” of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) and this number is on the rise. Informality is widespread particularly in developing and emerging countries, where it reaches more than 60 per cent of total employment. There are large segments of population affected by “working poverty”, those who work but are trapped in poverty.
  • Rising inequality and polarization: in the last two decades, most regions have experienced an increase in income inequality. During the same period, there has been a decline in the share of income that goes to labour relative to capital. And this pattern has persisted while labour productivity has increased. Concerns with hollowing out of the middle class and income polarization along different groups of population galvanizes headlines regularly and feed into social unrest. These trends left unattended, automation is likely to exacerbate the inequalities and vulnerabilities and entail more apprehension, whether founded or not on evidence, and more resistance to change.

A broader policy and research agenda

  • For a more positive outlook into the future of automation and work in this environment, there is a need for a broader value-driven policy and research agenda that  engages multiple actors, spans to other geographies and provides a more integrated perspective. Beyond net job destruction and creation counts, induced by automation, distribution of jobs and skills, productivity and income gains should be the focus of research and policy.
  • Space for dialogues. There are examples of how more acceptable and equitable outcomes can be negotiated through social dialogue. The highly automated Hamburg Port is a case in point. Advanced automation has been accompanied by internal redeployment of employees to other jobs and tasks, their re-skilling and up-skilling packages, and redistribution of productivity gains through new working time arrangements and wage compensations.
  • Another innovative form of dialogue to explore, is dialogue among scientists and technology innovators with the research community in economic and social sciences.
  • Transition policies should become permanent features of public policy action and enterprise strategies, facilitating redeployment within firm, sector or economy. Use of  fiscal policies as well as private sector financing  can support active transitions in particular for those made vulnerable to automation, and who are in structural disadvantage in the labour markets.
  • Expansion and distribution of learning and re-skilling opportunities as automation and other technological innovations require different and continuously evolving  set of skills. Their accessibility to those who need them most can be powerful means to reduce inequalities.

The challenges of disruption in labour markets as a result of new waves of automation are real but more complex than a narrow focus on the potential job displacement and job creation impact. While this time too, the future may evolve in unpredictable ways, there is a need for a broader policy and research agenda and actions that accompany these transformations. In the polarized environment of today and the rapid pace of technological innovation, the time is now and the time span is limited to invest in new social engineering  and cooperative mechanisms that create more equitable and sustainable outcomes.

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Arntz, Melanie; Gregory; Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich. 2016. “The risk of automation for jobs in OECD Countries: A comparative analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 189. Paris, OECD Publishing.

Frey, Carl Benedikt; Osborne, Michael. 2013. “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”, Oxford, Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a revised version of which was published in 2017 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 114.

ILO, Employment Policy Brief 2017. New automation technologies and job creation and destruction dynamics.

McKinsey Global Institute. 2017. A future that works: automation, employment, and productivity.

World Economic Forum. 2018. The Future of Jobs Report 2018.

World Bank. 2016. World development report 2016: Digital dividend. Washington DC, World Bank.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

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Journal of Population Economics: Issue 2/2019 Table of Content & Ten New Associate Editors

Journal of Population Economics. Volume 32 Number 2 is now available online.

Ten new articles in Population Economics are published, see listing and access below. Ten new Associate Editors have been appointed. Their names and pictures are below.

In this issue: TABLE OF CONTENT and article access
National identity under economic integration
Chun-Fang Chiang, Jin-Tan Liu & Tsai-Wei Wen
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
OPEN ACCESS TO THE PUBLIC for a limited time!
Concrete measures: the rise of public housing and changes in young single motherhood in the U.S.
Katharine L. Shester, Samuel K. Allen & Christopher Handy
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Does public insurance coverage for pregnant women affect prenatal health behaviors?
Dhaval M. Dave, Robert Kaestner & George L. Wehby
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Closing or reproducing the gender gap? Parental transmission, social norms and education choice
Maria Knoth Humlum, Anne Brink Nandrup & Nina Smith
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Intergenerational income mobility: access to top jobs, the low-pay no-pay cycle and the role of
education in a common framework
Paul Gregg, Lindsey Macmillan & Claudia Vitto
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF OPEN ACCESS TO THE PUBLIC
Family support or social support? The role of clan culture
Chuanchuan Zhang
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Revisiting the relationship between longevity and lifetime education: global evidence from
919 surveys
Mohammad Mainul Hoque, Elizabeth M. King, Claudio E. Montenegro & Peter F. Orazem
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth
Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Premature mortality and poverty measurement in an OLG economy
Mathieu Lefèbvre, Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Unequal hopes and lives in the USA: optimism, race, place, and premature mortality
Carol Graham & Sergio Pinto
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF

Newly appointed Associate Editors

  • Quamrul Ashraf, Williams College, USA
  • Andrew Clark, Paris School of Economics, France
  • Avraham Ebenstein, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
  • Shuaizhang Feng, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
  • Moshe Hazan, Tel Aviv University, Israel
  • Eliana La Ferrara, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
  • Terra McKinnish, University of Colorado, USA
  • Jessamyn Schaller, University of Arizon, USA
  • Kompal Sinha, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
  • Rainer Winkelmann, University of Zurich, Switzerland

Ends;

Immigration restrictions lead to cultural separation across generations!

Issue 2019/1 of the Journal of Population Economics is published: Please see for the Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The article in the new issue

Immigration restrictions and second-generation cultural assimilation: theory and quasi-experimental evidence

By Fausto Galli, Giuseppe Russo; pp. 23-51

Abstract

“We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the cultural assimilation of second-generation migrants. In our theoretical model, when mobility is free, individuals with a stronger taste for their native culture migrate temporarily. When immigration is restricted, however, these individuals are incentivized to relocate permanently. Permanent emigrants procreate in the destination country and convey their cultural traits to the second generation, who will therefore find assimilation harder. We test this prediction by using the 1973 immigration ban in Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a quasi-experiment. Since the ban only concerned immigrants from countries outside the European Economic Community, they act as a treatment group. According to our estimates, the Anwerbestopp has reduced the cultural assimilation of the second generation. This result demonstrated robustness to several checks. We conclude that restrictive immigration policies may have the unintended consequence of delaying the intergenerational process of cultural assimilation. “

Read further open access for a short period:

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Kuznets Prize Winner 2019.
The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.

Ends;

Migration fosters economic adjustment after shocks. European flexibility has increased.

Issue 2019/1 of the Journal of Population Economics is published: Please see for the Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Authors: Julia Jauer, Thomas Liebig, John P. Martin, Patrick A. Puhani

Abstract

” We estimate whether migration can be an equilibrating force in the labour market by comparing pre- and post-crisis migration movements at the regional level in both Europe and the United States, and their association with asymmetric labour market shocks. Based on fixed-effects regressions using regional panel data, we find that Europe’s migratory response to unemployment shocks was almost identical to that recorded in the United States after the crisis. Our estimates suggest that, if all measured population changes in Europe were due to migration for employment purposes—i.e. an upper-bound estimate—up to about a quarter of the asymmetric labour market shock would be absorbed by migration within a year. However, in Europe and especially in the Eurozone, the reaction to a very large extent stems from migration of recent EU accession country citizens as well as of third-country nationals.”

Read also open access for a short period:

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Kuznets Prize Winner 2019.
The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.

Ends;

Kuznets Prize of the Journal of Population Economics given at the #ASSA2019 Reception of IESR in Atlanta.

The awarded study receiving the Kuznets Prize shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.

The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics in a particular year is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. Then the winners will be presented in a prize ceremony. This time, the winners remained confidential until January 4, 2019. The prize committee for the 2019 award consisted out of Alessandro Cigno, Erdal Tekin, Junsen Zhang and Klaus F. Zimmermann selecting from the 2018 published articles they were in charge of as acting Editors.

Dean Shuaizhang Feng, Head of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) of Jinan University, had invited the members of the Global Labor Organizations (GLO) and the Kuznets Prize Ceremony of the Journal of Population Economics as other ASSA 2019 participants to join the reception of the Institute. IESR and GLO are collaborating organizations, and Shuaizhang Feng is a GLO Fellow and Associate Editor of the Journal.

GLO President Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal had visited Jinan University and IESR in March 2018 for a longer period and a GLO-IESR workshop. He had also presented the Journal in 2018 to various academic events in Beijing, Xiamen and Hongkong to strengthen the already strong contacts to the Chinese research community. A larger number of economists participated, including many Editorial Board Members of the Journal of Population Economics and Kuznets Prize winners of previous years.

Shuaizhang Feng reported about the activities of IESR and the hiring interviews at the ASSA job market and explained the attractive research climate at the Institute. He also warmly welcomed the affiliates of GLO and the Journal of Population Economics. Klaus F. Zimmermann congratulated Feng for the successful development of IESR and the strong research climate and the attractive working conditions he had observed while visiting the Institute in 2018 and met with the very many strong and ambitious researchers.

Zimmermann also welcomed the 2018 Kuznets Prize Winner, Le Wang (University of Oklahoma), who received the award together with Chunbei Wang (University of Oklahoma) for their article:

Knot yet: Minimum marriage age law, marriage delay, and earnings, Journal of Population Economics (2017), 30(3), pp. 771-804.

Both authors had studied and graduated at Jinan University before they came to the United States. Le Wang expressed his gratitude for receiving the Kuznets Prize and explained how it created visibility for his work.

Then the 2019 Kuznets Prize paper was announced. Studying the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries, it suggests that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.

Nicholas Wilson is a Fellow with the Office of Evaluation Sciences, an Associate Professor of Economics at Reed College and the Chair of the Department of Economics. He is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). His research focuses on fundamental puzzles about human behavior in the context of health, development, and behavioral economics. Prior to joining Reed College, he was a Visiting Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley and an Assistant Professor of Economics at Williams College. He has published a larger number of papers in journals including the American Economic Review, Demography, Economics & Human Biology, Journal of Development Economics and Journal of Health Economics.

Yoo-Mi Chin was present at the ceremony and happily took the prize. The large crowd of participants congratulated the prize winners and networked intensively within the remaining reception time.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson

Yoo-Mi Chin & Klaus F. Zimmermann
Klaus F. Zimmermann & Shuaizhang Feng

Ends;

GLO Discussion Papers December 2018 & Discussion Paper of the Month

The discussion paper of the month examines the potentials multiple language skills have for employment and wages in a globalized world. The research finds in the context of an open and multilingual economy that language training improves employability, but the skills are not sufficiently rewarded by higher wages.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: December

Discussion Paper No. 289 Evaluation of Language Training Programs in Luxembourg using Principal StratificationDownload PDF
by Bia, Michela & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Mercatanti, Andrea

GLO Fellow Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Abstract: In a world increasingly globalized, multiple language skills can create more employment opportunities. Several countries include language training programs in active labor market programs for the unemployed. We analyze the effects of a language training program on the re-employment probability and hourly wages of the unemployed simultaneously, using high quality administrative data from Luxembourg. We address selection into training by exploiting the rich administrative information available, and account for the complication that wages are “truncated” by unemployment by adopting a principal stratification framework. Estimation is undertaken with a mixture model likelihood-based approach. To improve inference, we use the individual’s hours worked as a secondary outcome and a stochastic dominance assumption. These two features considerably ameliorate the multimodality problem commonly encountered in mixture models. We also conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the unconfoundedness assumption employed. Our results strongly suggest a positive effect (of up to 12.7 percent) of the language training programs on the re-employment probability, but no effects on wages for those who are observed employed regardless of training participation. It appears that, in the context of an open and multilingual economy, language training improve employability but the language skills acquired are not sufficiently rewarded to be reflected in higher wages.

GLO Discussion Papers of December 2018

Titles and free access/links to GLO Discussion Papers

289 Evaluation of Language Training Programs in Luxembourg using Principal StratificationDownload PDF
by Bia, Michela & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Mercatanti, Andrea

288 Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and NoncomplianceDownload PDF
by Blanco, German & Chen, Xuan & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso

287 Anti-Migration as a Threat to Internationalization? A Review of the Migration-Internationalization LiteratureDownload PDF
by Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas & Lodefalk, Magnus

286 Some unpleasant consequences of testing at lengthDownload PDF
by Brunello, Giorgio & Crema, Angela & Rocco, Lorenzo

285 Does Money Relieve Depression? Evidence from Social Pension Expansions in ChinaDownload PDF
by Chen, Xi & Wang, Tianyu & Busch, Susan H.

284 Media Attention and Choice of Major: Evidence from Anti-Doctor Violence in ChinaDownload PDF
by Bo, Shiyu & Chen, Y. Joy & Song, Yan & Zhou, Sen

283 Elite School Designation and House Prices – Quasi-experimental Evidence from Beijing, ChinaDownload PDF
by Huang, Bin & He, Xiaoyan & Xu, Lei & Zhu, Yu

282 Commuting Patterns, the Spatial Distribution of Jobs and the Gender Pay Gap in the U.S.Download PDF
by Gutierrez, Federico H.

281 The Effect of Self-Employment on Income InequalityDownload PDF
by Schneck, Stefan

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors:
Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org

GLO Fellows Stijn Baert & Sunčica Vujić find that volunteering fosters employment

Caring seems to be at odds with the simple model of economic agents as understood by the wider societal audience. However, care taking is a more and more popular field in economic analysis. A recent study in the Journal of Population Economics, the leading academic outlet in the field of population economics, is now establishing a volunteering premium. This implies that not only people care, it also pays to care.

Both authors, Stijn Baert & Sunčica Vujić, are Fellows of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), an international organization that supports academic international exchange and the work of the Journal of Population Economics. The article was just published in the new issue of the Journal of Population Economics, , Volume 31, Issue 3, pp 819–836:

Does it pay to care? Volunteering and employment opportunities

Stijn Baert & Sunčica Vujić

» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0682-8

Abstract

The GLO Fellows have investigated whether volunteering has a causal effect on individual employment opportunities. A field experiment is conducted in which volunteering activities are randomly assigned to fictitious job applications sent to genuine vacancies in Belgium. They find that volunteers are 7.3 percentage points more likely to get a positive reaction to job applications. The volunteering premium is higher for females but invariant with respect to the number of engagements.

  • Baert: Ghent University, University of Antwerp, Université Catholique de Louvain, GLO and IZA, Ghent, Belgium

Stijn Baert

  • Vujić: University of Antwerp and University of Bath, Antwerp, Belgium, and GLO

Sunčica Vujić

Journal of Population Economics

Klaus F. Zimmermann; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Population Economics; President, GLO. The Global Labor Organization (GLO) supports the Journal of Population Economics.

Ends;

New GLO Discussion Paper: Selective Labor Immigration Policies Matter in Canada

Europe is discussing how to improve the labor market performance of economic migrants and their integration chances. The Canadian immigration system is often seen as a model case. Is there an earnings benefit depending on the selection channel under the economic classe? In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Casey Warman, Matthew D. Webb and Christopher Worswick provide strong empirical evidence that selection matters. Using Canadian data sources they find that relative to the Family Class, the Adult Arrivals in the Skilled Worker category have earnings that are 29% higher for men and 38% higher for women.  Child Arrival immigrants landing in the Skilled Worker Class have similar earnings advantages.

GLO Fellow Casey Warman is associated with the Department of Economics, Dalhousie University and NBER.

GLO Fellow Matthew D. Webb is associated with the Department of Economics, Carleton University

GLO Fellow Christopher Worswick is associated  with the Department of Economics, Carleton University and CReAM

Casey Warman, Matthew D. Webb & Christopher Worswick: Immigrant Category of Admission and the Earnings of Adults and Children: How far does the Apple Fall? GLO Discussion Paper No. 196.  FREE DOWNLOAD: Download PDF

ABSTRACT

Immigrants  in  many  Western  countries  have  experienced  poor  economic  outcomes. This has led to a lack of integration of child immigrants (the 1.5 generation) and the second generation in some countries.  However, in Canada, child immigrants and the second generation have on average integrated very well economically.  The study examines the importance of Canada’s admission classes to determine if there is an earnings benefit of the selection under the Economic Classes to:  (i) the Adult Arrival immigrants and (ii) the Child Arrival immigrants (1.5 generation) once old enough to enter the labor market.  The study employs unique administrative data on landing records matched with subsequent  income  tax  records  that  also  allows  for  the  linking  of  the  records  of  Adult Arrival parents and their Child Arrival children.  It is found that relative to the Family Class, the Adult Arrivals in the Skilled Worker category have earnings that are 29% higher for men and 38% higher for women.  These differences persist even after controlling for  detailed  personal  characteristics  such  as  education  and  language  fluency  at  21% for men and 27% for women. Child Arrival immigrants landing in the Skilled Worker Class have earnings advantages (as adults) over their Family Class counterparts of 17% for men and 21% for women.  These Child Arrival Skilled Worker advantages remain at 9% for men and 14% for women after controlling for child characteristics, the Principal Applicant parent’s characteristics and the parent’s subsequent income in Canada. (Abstract marginally adapted from the DP.)

The paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. The responsible Editor has been Klaus F. Zimmermann.

The study is in line with earlier research on entry category effects of migrant’s labor market performance. For an analysis see a recent review paper:

Zimmermann, Klaus F., Refugee and Migrant Labor Market Integration: Europe in Need of a New Policy Agenda. Mimeo. Presented at the EUI Conference on the Integration of Migrants and Refugees, 29-30 September 2016 in Florence. Published in: Bauböck, R. and Tripkovic, M.,  The Integration of Migrants and Refugees.  An EUI Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography, European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florence 2017, pp. 88 – 100.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Journal of Population Economics

Ends;

 

 

Does Foreign Aid Stop Refugee Flows? New Evidence for the Policy Debate From a New GLO Paper

In the recent heated public debates in Europe about how to control refugee flows to Europe, it is often argued that foreign aid should be helpful to moderate such migration. In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs and Sarah Langlotz provide strong empirical evidence using global data sources to suggest that while exogenous aid encourages recipient governments to support the return of citizens, we find no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows in the short term; however, the authors find effects in the very long run.

GLO Fellow Axel Dreher  is associated  with the Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University; KOF Swiss Economic Institute; CEPR; Georg-August University Goettingen; and CESifo.

GLO Fellow Andreas Fuchs is associated with the Research Center for Distributional Conflict and Globalization & Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University.

GLO Fellow Sarah Langlotz is associated  with the Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University.

Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs & Sarah Langlotz: The Effects of Foreign Aid on Refugee Flows, GLO Discussion Paper No. 195.  FREE DOWNLOAD: Download PDF

ABSTRACT

This article is the first to systematically study whether foreign aid affects the net flows of refugees from recipient countries. Combining refugee data on 141 origin countries over the 1976-2013 period with bilateral Official Development Assistance data, we estimate the causal effects of a country’s aid receipts on both total refugee flows to the world and flows to donor countries. The interaction of donor-government fractionalization and a recipient country’s probability of receiving aid provides a powerful and excludable instrumental variable,when we control for country – and time-fixed effects that capture the levels of the interacted variables. Although our results suggest that exogenous aid induces recipient governments to encourage the return of their citizens, we find no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows or flows to donor countries in the short term. However, we observe long-run effects after four three-year periods, which appear to be driven by lagged positive effects of aid on growth. (Abstract marginally adapted from the DP.)

The study is in line with earlier research on South-North refugee migration. As Rotte, Vogler and Zimmermann (1997) have shown in their econometric analysis using refugee migration data to Germany, the issue had been discussed before. Short-term measures would not work, a long-term perspective would be needed.

Ralph Rotte, Michael Vogler & Klaus F. Zimmermann (1997), South-North Refugee Migration: Lessons for Development Cooperation, Review of Development Economics, 1 (1), pp. 99-115. Access.

Abstract: Migration has become a major concern of European development policies. By improving socio-economic and political conditions through development cooperation, a reduction of South-North migration flows is envisaged. This new approach is examined by analyzing the causes of asylum migration from developing countries to Germany. The econometric findings suggest that support of democracy, economic development and trade will not reduce migration, at least not in the medium-run. However, restrictive legal measures work. Migration control by international development cooperation therefore seems to need a long-term perspective.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Ends;

European Development Research Network publish special issue on Migration & Development: Research & Policy

A high-profile workshop organized by the European Development Research Network focused on how migration and migration policies can affect economic development and studied the policies that strengthen the benefits of migration for both sending and receiving countries. The event took place at Bonn University on December 5, 2016 under the leadership of Stephan Klasen (University of Goettingen), the President of the European Development Research Network.

The keynote speaker of the event had been Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and ZEF, Bonn University), who is also the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

GLO Discussion Paper No. 70 Migration for Development: From Challenges to Opportunities – Download PDF

by Klaus F. Zimmermann

Background paper to the keynote presentations to the European Development Conference 2016 on “Migration and Development” at Bonn University, December 5, 2016, and to the 22. Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES) Conference, May 24-26, 2017 at Sapienza University of Rome.

The papers of this event have now been published in French and English in the Revue D’Économie Du Développement collecting also articles of GLO Fellows Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics), Dean Yang (University of Michigan) and Tommaso Frattini (Milan University) and were discussed, among others, by GLO Fellows Toman Barsbai (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) and Melissa Siegel (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance and UNU-Merit). (See for more details below.)

 

 

Ends;

“Inter-generational cultural assimilation is hindered by immigration restrictions”

This is the conclusion of a new scientific study forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics, the leading academic outlet in population economics. The Journal is supported by the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Message: Inter-generational cultural assimilation is hindered by immigration restrictions.

Background

As migration research has shown, restricting free labor mobility leads to more migrants in the host country. People stay longer or forever and bring family. The 2014 article on Circular Migration by Klaus F. Zimmermann has reviewed this point providing evidence for Mexico and Germany. In the German context, the 1973 migration labor recruitment stop has lead to more migrants when the restrictions were binding.

In this tradition, a new scientific study forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics investigates the impact of restrictions on cultural assimilation. If those migrants with a stronger affection to the culture of origin are more temporary, more of them stay even permanently, and restrictions may lead to a slower cultural assimilation into the host country, among them or even in the next generation. The new paper studies the impact on second-generation cultural assimilation in this context.

THE PAPER:

Immigration restrictions and second-generation cultural assimilation: theory and quasi-experimental evidence

by Fausto Galli & Giuseppe Russo

Fausto Galli is at the Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Universita’ di Salerno, Fisciano, Italy

GLO Fellow Giuseppe Russo is at the Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Universita’ di Salerno, Fisciano, Italy and at the Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), Napoli, Italy

Website Link. Accepted for publication, forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. Available online. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0694-z

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the cultural assimilation of second-generation migrants. In our theoretical model, when mobility is free, individuals with a stronger taste for their native culture migrate temporarily. When immigration is restricted, however, these individuals are incentivized to relocate permanently. Permanent emigrants procreate in the destination country and convey their cultural traits to the second generation, who will therefore find assimilation harder. We test this prediction by using the 1973 immigration ban in Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a quasi-experiment. Since the ban only concerned immigrants from countries outside the European Economic Community, they act as a treatment group. According to our estimates, the Anwerbestopp has reduced the cultural assimilation of the second generation. This result demonstrated robustness to several checks. We conclude that restrictive immigration policies may have the unintended consequence of delaying the intergenerational process of cultural assimilation.

The responsible editor has been Klaus F. Zimmermann.

Journal of Population Economics

Ends;

Eastern Orthodox believers are less happy and have less social capital, a new GLO study shows.

Relative to Catholics, Protestants and non-believers, those individuals of Eastern Orthodox religion seem to be less happy, have less social capital and prefer old ideas and safe jobs. In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Simeon Djankov and Elena Nikolova provide strong empirical evidence using global data sources to suggest that this is support for the received Berdyaev hypothesis of communism as a successor of orthodoxy.

Simeon Djankov  is associated  with the London School of Economics and Political Science, UK and the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA.

GLO Fellow Elena Nikolova is associated with the Central European Labor Studies Institute, Slovakia, the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, Regensburg, Germany, and University College London.

Simeon Djankov & Elena Nikolova: Communism as the Unhappy Coming, GLO Discussion Paper No. 192FREE DOWNLOAD.

ABSTRACT

Eastern Orthodox believers are less happy compared to those of Catholic and Protestant faith using data covering more than 100 countries around the world. Consistent with the happiness results, the study also finds that relative to Catholics, Protestants and non-believers, those of Eastern Orthodox religion have less social capital and prefer old ideas and safe jobs. In addition, Orthodoxy is associated with left-leaning political preferences and stronger support for government involvement in the economy. Compared to non-believers and Orthodox adherents, Catholics and Protestants are less likely to agree that government ownership is a good, and Protestants are less likely to agree that getting rich can only happen at the expense of others. These differences in life satisfaction and other attitudes and values persisted despite the fact that communist elites sought to eradicate church-going in Eastern Europe, since communists maintained many aspects of Orthodox theology which were useful for the advancement of the communist doctrine. The findings are consistent with Berdyaev’s (1933, 1937) hypothesis of communism as a successor of Orthodoxy. (Abstract marginally adapted from the DP.)

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Ends;

 

A Full Employment Strategy for Europe: New GLO Discussion Paper of Ritzen & Zimmermann

Why not be more ambitious? Ritzen and Zimmermann suggest coordinated labor policies for a European full employment strategy.

Jo Ritzen is Professor of International Economics of Science, Technology and Higher Education, Maastricht University, UNU‐MERIT, Graduate School of Governance. Klaus F. Zimmermann is Professor, UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University; President, Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Research Fellow, CEPR.

Since years, Ritzen and Zimmermann have discussed the development of the European labor markets as a core factor behind Euroscepticism, which has been seen as posing an existential threat to the European Union. Therefore, European labor policies need to become more ambitious to fight unemployment. In their new discussion paper, Ritzen and Zimmermann outline the challenges and perspectives of a full employment policy across Europe: “We need a full employment strategy for Europe!”

Jo Ritzen & Klaus F. Zimmermann: Towards a European Full Employment Policy, GLO Discussion Paper No. 191 FREE DOWNLOAD.

ABSTRACT

Full employment in the European Union member states is a challenge but feasible, also in downswings of the business cycle and during stages of increased robotization. It requires labor legislation that ensures flexibility and retraining, responsive labor sharing during the business cycle and to individual life cycle needs, government interventions to supply supplemental employment and revamping dual education. The future of work is better ensured with coordinated European full employment labor policies establishing fair work conditions based on long-run business strategies as well as a fair distribution of national income between labor and capital.

http://www.klausfzimmermann.de/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/20180328_115952-2.jpg

Jo Ritzen (right) and Klaus F. Zimmermann at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht.

In 2017, Jo Ritzen has published a related book on: A Second Chance for Europe. Economic, Political and Legal Perspectives of the European Union, Springer Verlag Heidelberg.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Ends;

GLO Discussion Paper of the month: How Adult Wellbeing is Affected by Family and Childhood & ALL MARCH GLO DP’s OPEN ACCESS

Titles and free access/links to GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Discussion Paper of the Month: March

Flèche, Sarah & Lekfuangfu, Warn N. & Clark, Andrew E. , The Long-Lasting Effects of Family and Childhood on Adult Wellbeing: Evidence from British Cohort Data, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 184, March 2018. Free download.

Abstract: To what extent do childhood experiences continue to affect adult wellbeing over the life course? Previous work on this link has been carried out either at one particular adult age or for some average over adulthood. We here use two British birth-cohort datasets (the 1958 NCDS and the 1970 BCS) to map out the time profile of the effect of childhood experiences on adult outcomes, including life satisfaction. We find that the effects of many aspects of childhood do not fade away over time but are rather remarkably stable. In both birth-cohorts, child non-cognitive skills are the strongest predictors of adult life satisfaction at all ages. Of these, emotional health is the strongest. Childhood cognitive performance is more important than good conduct in explaining adult life satisfaction in the earlier NCDS cohort, whereas this ranking is inverted in the more recent BCS.

GLO Discussion Papers of March 2018

190 Residential Satisfaction for a Continuum of Households: Evidence from European Countries – Download PDF
by Borgoni, Riccardo & Michelangeli, Alessandra & Pirola, Federica

189 The economics of university dropouts and delayed graduation: a survey – Download PDF
by Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco

188 The Optimal Graduated Minimum Wage and Social Welfare – Download PDF
by Danziger, Eliav & Danziger, Leif

187 Minority Groups and Success in Election Primaries – Download PDF
by Epstein, Gil S. & Heizler, Odelia

186 Two and a half million Syrian refugees, skill mix and capital intensity – Download PDF
by Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe

185 Voting in Hiring Committees: Which “Almost” Rule Is Optimal? – Download PDF
by Baharad, Eyal & Danziger, Leif

184 The Long-Lasting Effects of Family and Childhood on Adult Wellbeing: Evidence from British Cohort Data – Download PDF
by Flèche, Sarah & Lekfuangfu, Warn N.s & Clark, Andrew E.

 

Successful GLO team:

GLO Managing Director Matloob Piracha (University of Kent, right) and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University, left).

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GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann on: Why we need global scientific policy advice.

Evidence-free policy making is on the move. This is a particular challenge for the relationship between scientists and policymakers. A workshop with a high-ranked panel of scientists in Budapest engaged in policy advice and policy-making will debate this in the face of the ongoing debate about the future of the Central European University (CEU). The open event takes place on September 6, 2017 on the premises of CEU.

The issue is also debated during the  Academia Europaea 29th Annual Conference 2017 in the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, on Tuesday September 4-6, 2017. Academia Europaea (AE) is the Academy of Europe.

Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht & Bonn University) is President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Member of the AE. The AE Council of Academia Europaea has just confirmed his position as Chair of the AE Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”.

Zimmermann writes on “Why we need global scientific policy advice”:

“Scientific research does not have to follow socio-political concerns, but it is often inspired by practical challenges. While science cannot help policymakers in cases where hard evidence and convincing findings are lacking, both sides should nonetheless engage in evidence-based policy advice. National and international labor market policies provide a number of good examples how this concept can work.

The concept has, however, come more under pressure in recent years leading to an age of evidence-free policy making at a time when fake-news became fashionable.

The world has learned a lot from the evidence-based policy making of the successful German labor market reforms. This has been a great step forward. On the other hand, many in Europe still fear the economic and social consequences of open and mobile labor markets – despite the proven success of EU enlargement and the available evidence from numerous international migration studies. Unfortunately, the new refugee issue has led people to increasingly ignore such findings after 2015.

But even though the success and the potential of evidence-based policy advice have been widely shown, the concept is subject to criticism from various sides. The necessary independence cannot be guaranteed, a common arguments goes. From this point of view, any policy recommendations are ultimately driven by political and economic interests and dependencies. This allegation is an attack on the scientist’s professional ethos, which includes compliance with the principles of good scientific practice, the pursuit of robust findings, and the impartial communication of these findings. New ethics codes, which the profession has recently adopted, ensure that these principles are upheld.

While good science is always global, some claim that good policy advice must be primarily national in scope. To be sure, national contexts and institutional differences are relevant for a policy advisor. But the increasing global interdependence leaves no room for provincial strategies. For highly open economies like Germany, policy is no longer national. Since globally oriented science ensures the competitiveness of national policy advisors, the quality of German policy advice would be threatened if it were to concentrate on national peculiarities alone.

Evidence-based policy advice, moreover, requires a combination of research and advice: The researcher also acts as an advisor, while the advisor also conducts research. In Germany, the Science Council and other scientific organizations have always stressed the need for this dual role, and the Academies of Science have been practicing it worldwide. Opponents of this concept claim that the dirty business of policy making only keeps scientists from doing good research. Likewise, the demands of policymakers are better met, according to the argument, if they free themselves from the constraints of seeking science-based advice.

Of course, there will always be scientists who shy away from offering policy advice, just as well as policy advisors who do not want to do research. This is not to be condemned. But these two types cannot be considered actors of evidence-based policy advice. And in the long run, this is likely to result in policies of inferior quality. Only the best scientific findings should provide the foundation for important economic policy decisions. Only genuine scientists, i.e., those who contribute to the advancement of science through their own publications, can produce such output, inspired by the challenges of their advisory role, and communicate their results as evidence-based policy advice. This superiority is owed to global competition both in research and policy advice, which ensures the use of the best methodology and findings.”

Revised version of an op-ed of Zimmermann published in IZA Compact 4/2015, p. 16, and on the website of the Academia Europaea, The Academy of Europe.

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Zimmermann in front of the Hungarian Academy of Science, Budapest

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GLO Fellows Asadullah & Maliki on: Bottling Indonesia’s Gini

GLO Fellows M Niaz Asadullah and Maliki have just posted an article on the future of Indonesia with PROJECT SYNDICATE.

M Niaz Asadullah is Professor of Development Economics at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur, and Head of the Southeast Asia cluster of the Global Labor Organization.

Maliki, a Global Labor Organization research fellow, is Director for Population Planning and Social Security at the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas).

JAKARTA – When Indonesia declared independence from Dutch rule in 1945, the country’s founder, Sukarno, called on his people to build a nation that would “stand in strength,” eternally united. That mantra – unity and strength – helped shape the country’s future, including its approach to economic development. During much of Indonesia’s early history, its egalitarian distribution of wealth and assets set it apart from its neighbors.

But seven decades later, the legacy of equality is fading. If Indonesia is to remain one of Asia’s most robust economies, it is essential that its current leadership recommit to narrowing the socioeconomic gap.

During much of the 1970s and 1980s, Indonesia’s low level of income inequality helped raise living standards and reduce poverty. In 1970, just 25 years after independence, the country managed an enviable distribution of wealth among a diverse population, with a Gini coefficient (a common measure of income inequality) of 0.35 (with zero representing maximum equality). By comparison, neighboring Malaysia had a Gini coefficient of 0.50.

Indonesia’s remained roughly the same for decades. But, since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, income gaps have widened throughout the region, and in Indonesia in particular, where social welfare programs have barely stemmed the rise in inequality. This year, Indonesia’s Gini coefficient is around 0.39, only slightly better than the 0.41 recorded in 2014.

To economists like us, this trend is deeply worrying. Because persistent high or rising inequality can contribute to political instability and undermine social cohesion, it is critical that Indonesia address it. Paradoxically, Malaysia’s experience is instructive.

In Malaysia, income inequality is no longer primarily a function of ethnicity, or the rural-urban divide, as it once was. Thanks to successful redistribution strategies adopted during the 1970s and 1980s, average per capita income increased, and poverty rates fell dramatically. Though wealth distribution remains a major concern, Malaysia’s Gini coefficient has been on a steady glide toward greater equality since the mid-1970s; in 2014, for example, it dropped to 0.40 for the first time ever, (though this figure remains higher than the average for OECD economies).

Indonesia is moving in the opposite direction. Not only does it have one of the highest levels of wealth inequality in the world; it also suffers deep regional disparities. The country’s poorer eastern provinces, which have a history of ethnic violence, lag behind the rest of the country on human development indicators, infrastructure quality, and access to education. Despite the country’s overall progress, food insecurity and child malnutrition remain serious issues in the east. In other words, it is not just Indonesia’s income distribution that concerns us, but how unequal access to health care, education, and social services has become.

Our concern is widely shared. Last month, scholars, practitioners, and policymakers from around the world gathered at the Indonesian Development Forum to explore solutions to the many forms of inequality that are affecting Indonesia today. The challenges are complex, and discussions focused on the need for multipronged solutions. As Columbia University’s Jeffrey D. Sachs noted, greater investment in education, and more effective wealth redistribution strategies, are the key areas that Indonesia’s government must focus on.

The classroom is the foundation of sustainable development everywhere. Access to education is one of the best ways for poor or disadvantaged youth to become economically productive and climb out of poverty. Unfortunately, Indonesia’s public schools, especially in the east, are struggling with teacher absenteeism. Children who want to learn simply cannot when their instructors do not show up. Broadening access to education is not only about boosting enrollment rates; it also requires ensuring accountability and improving service quality.

Still, reforming the education sector alone will not be enough to close Indonesia’s wealth gap. Strategies that the government should consider include expanding social protection; creating more vocational-training programs; and overhauling the tax system. In many OECD countries, redistributive policies, like tax breaks and expansion of welfare benefits, have helped reduce inequality. If Indonesia is to hit the targets set by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals for reducing inequality by 2030, it must follow these countries’ example.

There are many reasons to be hopeful. Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesia’s Minister of National Development Planning, has helped make social inequality a key agenda item, following the direction of President Joko Widodo. This time next year, the Indonesia Development Forum will meet again to gauge progress in our efforts to tackle regional inequality.

Clearly, the political will exists to restore greater equality to Indonesia’s economy. If current leaders can remain as focused on their vision as the country’s founders were on theirs, Indonesia will again serve as a model of unity and strength for the region.

Article copyright: Project Syndicate (posted with permission)

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GLO Heads Brown & Zimmermann on the Hounds of Globalization

Companies need to actively and positively account for the hounds of globalization – migration and digitization, issues which are core to the research efforts of the Global Labor Organization (GLO)GLO Director Alessio J.G. Brown and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann have just published a joint article in Germany’s leading Human Resources Magazine Personalführung (in German). 

Brown and Zimmermann both serve also as Co-Directors of POP at UNU-MERIT in Maastricht and as Honorary Professors of Maastricht University.

Abstract

Die Planung und Entwicklung der Humankapitalressourcen in den Unternehmen steht vor gewaltigen Zukunftsaufgaben. Die Globalisierung, wenn auch zunehmend bekämpft, setzt weltweite Standards und erzwingt Wettbewerb. Der Beitrag analysiert die Themenfelder Demographie, Europa, Migration und Digitalisierung. Mitarbeiterrekrutierung wird für die Unternehmung zur Herausforderung. Arbeit wird flexibler und an die Bedürfnisse der Beschäftigten angepasst. Aber ihre sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Risiken nehmen zu. Mitarbeiterführung und Mitarbeitermotivation stehen vor neuen Fragen.

A copy of the article can be found here.

Zimmermann and Brown in front of UNU-MERIT in Maastricht.

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