Category Archives: Post-19

May 13, 2019. Azita Berar on ‘ILO: Celebrating a century of international cooperation on the governance of labour’. GLO Policy News No.1

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Azita Berar Awad is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Former ILO Director, Employment Policy

GLO Policy News No. 1 – Theme 3. Future of Work

ILO: Celebrating a century of international cooperation on the governance of labour

by Azita Berar Awad

This year is the Centenary of the International Labour Organization (ILO). Since its establishment in 1919,  by the Versailles Peace Treaty at the end of the first World War, the Organization has shown a remarkable resilience, unique amongst the multilateral institutions of global governance. Over 100 years, ILO has survived another major war. It also surfed over and navigated through  several global and regional economic and social crises and tectonic geopolitical shifts among its constituent members. Created in 1919, on the promise of sustaining peace by promoting social justice, the Centenary celebrations across the world, are a good opportunity to reflect not only on past achievements, but on the relevance of this  proposition for the future.

The Future of Work is the central theme of ILO’s Centenary deliberations. To this effect, an independent Commission composed of 27 members representing diverse interests was established in 2017 and issued its report in January 2019. The International Labour Conference, the main governance organ of the institution, bringing together governments, employers’ and workers organizations from 187 countries, will meet in June 2019 in Geneva  to draw its own conclusions in the form of a Centenary Declaration.

In this GLO Policy News, six issues drawn from a review of ILO’s rich history are highlighted. (See for a list of publications on ILO history.) They relate to the Organization’s foundational values and their evolution in a century of economic, social and technological transformations. On each issue,  we bring out key challenges, the resolution of which  will  shape ILO’s effectiveness in its second century.
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What we should know

  • The ILO was born at the intersection of the twin quests for International Peace and that for Social Justice. Its foundational act, the ILO Constitution, is  Part XIII of the Peace Treaty that put an end to World War I. It was adopted by the Versailles Peace Conference on 28 April 1919. The Constitution envisioned a new international order, against a backdrop of tremendous human sufferings during World War I, widespread poverty and appalling conditions of work in most of the 19th Century and early 20th Century. The  industrial revolution had brought about progress, but also misery and injustice. Protest,  social unrest and revolution had ensued. This vision in which “lasting peace can be established only if based on social justice”, resonates strongly  a century later, for all those concerned with the rising and widening economic and social inequalities, for the left-behind of globalization, and for all those who look to the future with apprehension. Will there will be work for all who seek to work and will it be decent, they wonder. While international wars have diminished in recurrence and intensity, millions of people are caught in numerous internal strife and protracted crises of various types in different regions of the world. Current conflicts that have dreadful internal and cross-border consequences,  such as the movements  of internally displaced persons (IDPs), economic migrants  and refugees seeking asylum.
  • ILO is the only of the three international institutions established by the Versailles Treaty still functioning a century later. The League of Nations and the Permanent Court of Justice, the other two institutions,  were paralyzed and later formally abolished to be replaced by the new global governance system of the United Nations. The ILO became the first Specialized Agency within the new frame of the United Nations System, soon joined by several other new international institutions with dedicated technical specialization.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration, adopted on the 10th May of 1944,  and embedded later into the ILO Constitution, while maintaining the ILO’s primary function of developing international legislation to promote humane conditions of work, broadened the original vision in several ways. (To date, there are 189 Conventions and 205 Recommendations and 4 Protocols covering a wide range of work related issues and adopted after elaborate international tripartite negotiations.) With emphasis laid on human rights, including the freedom of association (for workers and employers),  the Philadelphia Declaration is a precursor to the Universal Declaration for Human Rights adopted in 1948 and a source of inspiration for many rights included in  the two international Covenants of Civil and Political Rights and Social, Economic and Cultural rights adopted in 1966.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration also introduced the objective of full and freely chosen employment and the commitment to promote employment, acquisition of skills, and regulation of labour migration as contributing to full employment. Despite the Cold War and the confrontation between competing social ideals, ILO’s model of international cooperation adapted and evolved relatively well in the 1950’s and 1960’s, in a context of high growth, full employment and welfare state in industrial countries. During the same period, the decolonization process which saw the membership of the Organization grow rapidly from 40 countries in 1919 to 187 today, gave more sense to the universal relevance of the ILO while bringing out the different and diverse realities of the world of work in developing countries. The World Employment Programme launched in 1969, at mid-point in ILO’s history, responded to this developmental challenge by treading new field, uncharted before. Examples are its pioneering work on rural poverty, its coining of the concept of the informal sector and its innovative lens on the gendered division of labour.
  • The Philadelphia Declaration clearly  proclaimed the primacy of human and social progress “in conditions of freedom and dignity, of economic security and equal opportunity” over economic and financial considerations. It mandated the ILO to examine all international economic and financial policies in the light of this primacy. We know that the globalization story in the 1980’s and the 1990s, and the neo-liberal model that sustained it and expanded it to all regions, unfolded differently. The International Financial Institutions (IFI) set  policy frameworks  based on the primacy of financial solvency, despite its high social adjustment costs. The policy responses to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and to the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, have shown that policy coherence, between the IFIs and the United Nations system, when addressing the social and economic challenges of globalization or responding to major global economic and financial crises, remains a challenge. The ILO’s 1998 Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work represents a rare consensus platform, a level playing field in globalizing economies in respect of the core labour rights  of elimination of child and forced labour, non-discrimination at work, and freedom of association.
  • It is good to recall that the ILO is the only United Nations agency that is not only inter-governmental but embodies an enlarged democratic system representing all three parties of the world of work. Since its foundation, the ILO functions on the premise of tripartite dialogue and cooperation at national and international levels. Governments, employers’ and workers’ organizations voice their views, negotiate and vote independently in all ILO’s organs and working processes. This pioneering and revolutionary model of tripartism is obviously  confronted with its own challenges. A major one is the representational challenge. The declining membership of trade unions reduces  their bargaining power and hence their voice in policy-making. The Employers’ organizations often do not include the two extremes of the business sector, that is the major multinationals and global supply chains that operate across borders and different national legislative frameworks, often setting their own ethical agenda and codes of conduct. They do not encompass either the myriad micro and small business operators , most of which are in the informal economy. The  growing movement of civil society organizations (other than employers and workers organizations) also claims a more active and systemic engagement with ILO.

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This brief could only touch on a few issues. It is merely an invitation to dig deeper into the ILO history, many aspects of which are yet to be researched and written. Looking into the second centenary, this is an invitation to reflect on the philosophical notions of human work and social justice and on the values of democratic dialogue and international cooperation in a context of fast technological disruptions such as the artificial intelligence and all embracing digitalization, environmental degradation and widening inequalities. Will the human agency prevail in innovative social engineering and in shaping the future in fairness in a more complex and uncertain world?

NOTE: Opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
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The long shadow of Stalin: Mistrust across former USSR countries. GLO Discussion Paper of the Month April and other GLO DP’s of April.

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of April 2019 provides a historical explanation on within-country differences in levels of trust. Specifically, the paper finds that the lower trust levels present in former USSR countries can be traced back to the system of forced prison labor present during Stalin’s regime, which created terror and mass repression, causing individuals to lose trust in neighbors, institutions and society at large.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: April

GLO Discussion Paper No. 344, 2019.344 Stalin and the origins of mistrust – Download PDF

by Nikolova, Milena & Popova, Olga & Otrachshenko, Vladimir 

GLO Fellows Milena Nikolova and Olga Popova 

Abstract:   We show that current differences in trust levels within former Soviet Union countries can be traced back to the system of forced prison labor during Stalin’s rule, which was marked by high incarceration rates, repression, and harsh punishments. We argue that those exposed to forced labor camps (gulags) became less trusting and transferred this social norm to their descendants. Combining contemporary individual-level survey data with historical information on the location of forced labor camps, we find that individuals who live near former gulags have low levels of social and institutional trust. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, which suggests that the relationship we document is causal. We outline several causal mechanisms and test whether the social norm of mistrust near gulags developed because of political repression or due to fear that inmates bring criminality. As such, we provide novel evidence on the channels through which history matters for current socio-economic outcomes today.

GLO Discussion Papers of April 2019

344 Stalin and the origins of mistrust – Download PDF
by Nikolova, Milena & Popova, Olga & Otrachshenko, Vladimir

343 Intergenerational Mobility: An Assessment for Latin American Countries – Download PDF
by Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Yavuz, Hasan Bilgehan & Pastore, Francesco

342 The impact of Brexit on International Students’ Return Intentions – Download PDF
by Falkingham, Jane & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline & Wang, Chuhong

341 Labour mobility and interprovincial trade in Canada – Download PDF
by Aziz, Nusrate & Mahar, Gerry

340 Should I stay or should I go? Migration and job-skills mismatch among Italian doctoral recipients Download PDF
by Alfano, Vincenzo & D’Uva, Marcella & De Simone, Elina & Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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GLO President delivered George Soros Lecture on May 8, 2019 at the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest

In a public speech at the Central European University on May 8, 2019, GLO President Zimmermann delivered his George Soros Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits”. Martin Kahanec, Professor, GLO Fellow and Head of the School of Public Policy, was introducing Zimmermann to a larger group of interested participants, and chaired the discussion after the talk. Kahanec and Zimmermann had published various books and articles together dealing with global labor economics, in particular on the consequences of EU enlargement and migration.

Two successful scientists, GLO leaders, co-authors & friends

Klaus F. Zimmermann is the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) teaching a student class on Global Labor Economics in the 2019 Spring term. He is also the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), the Section Chair for Economics, Business and Management of the Academia Europaea, the European Academy of Science, and Professor Emeritus of Bonn University.

Summarizing major aspects from his class, Zimmermann explained in the lecture why global labor economics can contribute forcefully to the wealth of nations. Connecting his work to Adam Smith, he suggested that global labor mobility is the ultimate consequence of the division of work which is the driving force behind economic development and global wellbeing. While most research on global labor economics documents that migration is beneficial for the economy (economic efficiency) and hence the basis of wellbeing of people, he argues that it is necessary to develop multi-ethnic social and cultural identities to make this outcome also socially effective in society.

In its Winter 2019 issue of “The International Economy”, the Washington DC based magazine of international economic policy, has featured a prominent symposium of views on “Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Klaus F. Zimmermann, the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Bonn University Professor and UNU-MERIT/Maastricht affiliated economist, who is currently the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, had been asked to contribute to this debate. The link to the full text of the symposium is here. Please find the contribution of Zimmermann also below, which is in close relationship to his George Soros Lecture.

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Summer School on “The Role of Education in National and Regional Socioeconomic Development” on July 8–12, 2019 in Moscow. Deadline May 15.

GLO Fellow Harry Patrinos (World Bank) speaks at a new International Summer School on the role of education for socio-economic development. Participants are invited as indicated below. World Bank and the Higher School of Economics organize this in Moscow.

The World Bank and the Higher School of Economics welcome applications for the upcoming

First International Summer School:

“The Role of Education in National and Regional Socioeconomic Development”

July 8–12, 2019, Moscow

We encourage applications by students and early-career researchers from Russia, the CIS, Eastern Europe and China who pursue various perspectives in the Economics of Education and Education Policy. The Summer School aims to demonstrate the unity of theoretical and applied research on the Economics of Education and Education Policy. The main goal of the Summer School is to contribute to the development of theory and practice in the Economics of Education and Education Policy by foregrounding the latest international research and practice in this field.

The School Agenda will focus on:

— Challenges and opportunities in modern education policy
— Role of education in national socioeconomic development
— Role of governance in linking education and development
— Development of Human Capital 2.0 as a basis for the conceptual study of Economics of Education and Education Policy
— New trends in the labor market: the key challenges for the education system
— How to assess the effectiveness and returns on investment in education
— How to design, conduct and present research and applied projects.

The speakers are accomplished scholars and leading experts in the Economics of Education and Education Policy:

During the Summer School, students and young researchers will have the opportunity to build up their knowledge in the Economics of Education and Education Policy, as well as to discuss their individual research and applied projects.

The working language of the Summer School is English.

Requirements:

— Strong command of spoken and written English
— Current research or applied project in the Economics of Education and Education Policy.

Venue: 16/10 Potapovsky per., Institute of Education, HSE, Moscow, Russia.

Participants of the Summer School will be selected on a competitive basis. Please note that travel and accommodation are paid by participants. If necessary, a visa invitation can be arranged.

Applications are accepted until May 15, 2019.

The Organizing Committee will announce shortlisted participants by May 30, 2019.

To apply, please submit the following in English:

— Completed registration form
— Summary of the project that you will present at the Summer School (500–1,000 words)
— Motivational letter (300–500 words)
— CV.

Оnline registration form

The Organizing Committee:

I.A. Sloev (PhD, Chair of the Academic Council of the Master’s Programs “Education Economics and Management” and “Evidence-based Educational Policy,” Institute of Education, HSE), P.P. Zavalina (Consultant, Education Global Practice, World Bank), E.A. Savelyonok (PhD, Academic Director of the Master’s Program “Education Economics and Management,” Institute of Education, HSE), A.V. Garmonova (Director of Curriculum and Instruction, Institute of Education, HSE), I.D. Froumin (PhD, Head of the Institute of Education, HSE).

For questions, please contact:

— Igor Sloev: Tel: +7 (495) 772-9590*23086, email: isloev@hse.ru

— Polina Zavalina: Tel: +7 (499) 921-2054, email: pzavalina@worldbank.org

— Evgeniy Savelyonok: email: esavelyonok@hse.ru

GLO Director Matloob Piracha speakes on May 6, 2019 at Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia on Ethnic Identity and the Labor Market

Invitation to the next seminar in the Centre for Workforce Futures Seminar Series, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, on May 6, 2019.

Topic:                   Ethnic Identity and Immigrants’ Labour Market Outcomes

Speaker:            Dr Matloob Piracha
Venue:                120 Lend Lease Room, 1 Management Drive, Macquarie University NSW 2109
When:                 Monday 6th May 2019
Time:                   2:00 pm – 3:30 pm

Abstract:

In this seminar, Dr. Piracha will address the following questions: i) what are the determinants of ethnic identity, and (ii) whether those who identify with the host country culture have a higher probability of getting a job as well as better wages than those who identify more with the culture of their country of origin. The paper will use the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia (LSIA), which consists of data collected for two cohorts of immigrants. The first cohort entered the country in 1993–1995 while the second cohort entered in 2000–2001. The paper will consider what role ethnic identity plays in the labour market integration of immigrants. It will then compare the determinants of ethnic identity of the cohort that entered before the immigration policy change in 1995, when the level of English required in the selective (points-based) system increased, with the one that entered after the change.

Dr Matloob Piracha:

Dr Matloob Piracha is a Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) at the University of Kent, UK. He has extensive experience of working on migration and related issues and has published a number of papers on the impact of migration on sending and receiving countries as well as on migrants and their left-behind families. Matloob has acted as a consultant or a collaborator for a number of international organisations including the OECD, UK Department for International Development (DfID) and the World Bank. He is also Director of the Global Labour Organisation (GLO), a virtual network connecting eminent scholars and policymakers from around the world.

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GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest since April 1, 2019.

The Central European University (CEU) has appointed Klaus F. Zimmermann, who is also President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of CEU for April-June (Spring Term) 2019. He took residence in Budapest on April 1, 2019 and teaches since then a class in “Global Labor Economics“. He will provide the public George Soros Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” on May 8, 2019 (see special announcement).

GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann (on the morning walk to work)

Budapest has played a particular role in the academic career of Klaus F. Zimmermann. Already early 1984, he received as academic youngster the honor of an invitation to the small-scale Winter Symposium of the Econometric Society, which took place in Budapest guided by Martin Hellwig, Janos Kornai and Jean-Jacques Laffont. In 1990 he came back as the then Secretary of the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) to speak at the Workshop “Demographic Change and Social Policy” of the demographic institutes of the countries of the Eastern Socialist Block organized by the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute. Its then Director Istvan Monigl had invited Zimmermann and showed him also parts of Hungary in a personal tour. The ambitions of the two men was to initiate soon a big population economics congress in Budapest to foster change, which was achieved in 1993 when the annual ESPE congress took place in the city. Zimmermann came back regularly since then.

While 1984, 1990 and 1993 were visits in periods of change and transition with a high appreciation of freedom, mobility and collaboration, the current visit as a George Soros Chair Professor takes place in a period where free mobility, academic independence and European unity face declining popularity.

Half way to the office in Budapest: In the back the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Place of Work and Exchange

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GLO Supports World Talent Alliance: Zimmermann Represents his Organization in Hong Kong

Transnational movements of talent have become a key component of economic growth and international relationships. The global movement of talent fosters societal change, generates well-being of the public and promotes peace and development around the world.

On the initiative of Huiyao (Henry) Wang, the President of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a large number of participants representing global organizations met in Hong Kong to debate and foster the creation of a World Talent Alliance. The event, organized by the Center for China and Globalization Hong Kong Council, took place on April 10, 2019. Under the direction and leadership of Henry Wang, a larger number of speakers debated the needs and perspectives of global talent flows.

The President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Klaus F. Zimmermann, who is currently the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, was participating at the event. While representing GLO, he was given the honor to open the panel debate on the future of talent movements around the world. While being a long-term advocate of regulated (legal), but open global labor flows, Zimmermann explained the large potentials of talented worker flows for global welfare and regional development. He strongly welcomed the Chinese initiative fostered by Henry Wang, which would nicely complement the Chinese Belt & Road project.

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A Second Chance for Europe: German version of the book presented to the public in Berlin on April 5, 2019 by Jo Ritzen

On Friday, 5 April 2019, the Berlin Government Office (Landesvertretung) of the State of North Rhine – Westphalia hosted the launch of the German draft of the book ‘A Second chance for Europe: Economic, Political and Legal Perspectives of the European Union’ was presented by Jo Ritzen.

Jo Ritzen: “Eine zweite Chance für Europa: Wirtschaftliche, politische und rechtliche Perspektiven der Europäischen Union. Königshausen & Neumann, 2019.

The host, Stephan Holthoff-Pförtner, Minister of North Rhine – Westphalia in Berlin, introduced the event, and Christoph Schmidt, President of the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Head of the German Council of Economic Experts, provided a keynote speech discussing the challenges for Europe and evaluated the solutions outlined in the book. The detailed agenda can be found here.

Author Jo Ritzen, who is a former Dutch Minister of Education, a former Vice-President of the World Bank and the Past-President of Maastricht University, and has been a Professor of Economics before his remarkable career in politics, is currently working as Honorary Professor of Maastricht University and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). At the book launch, he was presenting the major contributions of the book, which is based on joint research with a number of GLO Fellows.

In the view of Ritzen, key challenges for Europe are (i) the social market economy, (ii) governance including corruption, (iii) internal and external labor mobility, (iv) the asylum issue, (v) the dept crisis and the Euro, and (vi) the knowledge society. It was common sense among the speakers that more Europe and not less is needed in the future to manage the current and forthcoming challenges.

Also present and contributing his views in a panel discussion after the book presentation were Alexander Kritikos, Research Director of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Professor at the University of Potsdam and GLO Fellow, and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann, currently at the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest as the George Soros Chair Professor. Zimmermann is also co-author of two chapters in the book.

Support for the policy proposals of Jo Ritzen

Latest news: The next version of the book, Jo Ritzen announced at the meeting, will be in Spanish.

Relaxed after work: Panelists Zimmermann, Ritzen und Kritikos

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GLO Malaysia Lead M. Niaz Asadullah Provides Public Lecture at University Malaysia Sabah in a Joint UMS-GLO Event on 17 April 2019.

The postgraduate section of the Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy (FBEA), Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), organized the first UMS-GLO Joint Public Lecture on 17th April 2019 in East Malaysia. The objective of this event is to encourage research networking and exchange of ideas especially among labor economists in Malaysia.

Professor M Niaz Asadullah of the University of Malaya and the South East Asia Lead and the Malaysia Lead for the Global Labor Organization (GLO) presented the keynote paper entitled ‘The Changing Pattern of Wage Returns to Education in Post-Reform China’. In his lecture, Professor Asadullah emphasized the importance of human capital development in China’s post reform economy.

The keynote lecture was followed by two presentations: Dr. Borhan S Abdullah and Dr. James Alin, both UMS lecturers, spoke on migration and unemployment issues in Malaysia, respectively. A total of 30 postgraduate students and lecturers of FBEA UMS attended the event, including GLO Fellow and Head of the Human Resource Economics Program of the Faculty, Dr. Beatrice Lim.

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GLO recommends: Take Microeconometrics with Professor Jeffrey M. Wooldridge at Kent University. Deadline is April 30, 2019.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) recommends a Course in Microeconometrics by Professor Jeffrey M. Wooldridge of Michigan State University. GLO Fellow Wooldridge is one of the most distinguished econometricians of our time. Venue is the University of Kent on 16-17 May 2019.

The course will cover several topics of interest to empirical researchers working primarily on micro-level data sets. There are a limited number of places available in the course for academics and research students working on micro-level data sets.

For further details examine the university announcement.

GLO Fellow Olena Nizalova of the University of Kent is one of the organizers of the event. GLO Fellows and Affiliates are invited to nominate potential participants, please contact Olena Nizalova before the end of April about your interest.

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April 10, 2019. All GLO Discussion Papers of March 2019 & the Discussion Paper of the Month suggesting that return migration improves social norms in Mali.

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month in March finds that girls living in localities with return migrants in Mali are less likely to be circumcised. This effect is driven mainly by the returnees from Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting that, in addition to punitive action against those who practice Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) or information campaigns, having lived in an African country where FGM practice is not customary is equally influential. This is evidence for the relevance of social remittances through return migration here by improving social norms.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March

GLO Discussion Paper No. 329, 2019.

Female genital mutilation and migration in Mali. Do return migrants transfer social norms? – Download PDF
by Diabate, Idrissa & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine  

GLO Fellow Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Paris School of Economics.


Sandrine Mesplé-Somps

Abstract:   In this paper, we investigate the power of migration as a mechanism in the transmission of social norms, taking Mali and Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) as a case study. Mali has a strong FGM culture and a long-standing history of migration. We use an original household-level database coupled with census data to analyze the extent to which girls living in localities with high rates of return migrants are less prone to FGM. Malians migrate predominantly to other African countries where female circumcision is uncommon (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire) and to countries where FGM is totally banned (France and other developed countries) and where anti-FGM information campaigns frequently target African migrants. Taking a two-step instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of migration and return decisions, we show that return migrants have a negative and significant influence on FGM practices. More precisely, we show that this result is primarily driven by the flow of returnees from Cote d’Ivoire. We also show that adults living in localities with return migrants are more informed about FGM and in favor of legislation. The impact of returnees may occur through several channels, including compositional effects, changes in return migrants’ attitudes toward FGM, and return migrants convincing stayers to change their FGM practices.

GLO Discussion Papers of March 2019

339 Monopsony Power and Guest Worker Programs  Download PDF
by Gibbons, Eric M. & Greenman, Allie & Norlander, Peter & Sørensen, Todd

338 Personality Traits and Performance in Online Labour Markets – Download PDF
by Mourelatos, Evangelos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Tzagarakis, Manolis

337 Out-of-Partnership Births in East and West Germany – Download PDF
by Jirjahn, Uwe & Struewing, Cornelia

336 What Is the Value Added by Using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation? – Download PDF
by Strittmatter, Anthony

335 Returns to Investment in Education: The Case of Turkey – Download PDF
by Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Psacharopoulos, George & Tansel, Aysit

334 Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria – Download PDF
by Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo

333 Assessing the impact of off- and on-the-job training on employment outcomes. A counterfactual evaluation of the PIPOL program – Download PDF
by Pastore, Francesco & Pompili, Marco

332 Maternal Health, Children Education and Women Empowerment: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from India – Download PDF
by Chatterjee, Somdeep & Poddar, Prashant

331 Exchange rate, remittances and expenditure of foreign-born households: evidence from Australia – Download PDF
by Hasan, Syed & Ratna, Nazmun & Shakur, Shamim

330 Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics – Download PDF
by Vernon, Victoria & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

329 Female genital mutilation and migration in Mali. Do return migrants transfer social norms? – Download PDF
by Diabate, Idrissa & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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“Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Experts debate this in the Winter Issue of “The International Economy” magazine.

“What problems are today’s populists seeking to address? Are followers of populist leaders driven by economic insecurity at a time of rising economic inequality and subpar growth, or by a reaction against progressive values, or both?” The International Economy magazine.

In its Winter 2019 issue of “The International Economy”, the Washington DC based magazine of international economic policy, has featured a prominent symposium of views on “Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Klaus F. Zimmermann, the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Bonn University Professor and UNU-MERIT/Maastricht affiliated economist, who is currently the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, had been asked to contribute to this debate. The link to the full text of the symposium is here. Please find the contribution of Zimmermann also below.

Related to the interactions between media, populism and migration is a new Oxford University book also free access online, to which GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has contributed a chapter. See:

Martin Ruhs, Kristof Tamas, & Joakim Palme (Eds.):
Bridging the Gaps. Linking Research to Public Debates and Policy Making on Migration and Integration. Oxford University Press. Published online March 28, 2019.

Chapter 8: Klaus F. Zimmermann: Gaps and Challenges of Migration Policy Advice: The German Experience

LINK TO THE FULL MANUSCRIPT OPEN ACCESS.

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Paper submission to Brasov conference on 31 May to June 1, 2019 still possible until April 26.

International Conference„Inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Challenges, measures and solutions” (ISEG 2019).

Place: 31 May-June 1: Brasov, Romania, at the Transilvania University of Brasov.

Organizers: Transilvania University of Brasov; Romanian Academy, Institute of Economic Forecasting; Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Invited Speakers are Filomena Maggino and  Klaus F. Zimmermann.

To participate: Register until April 26 through the conference website and send an abstract asap. CONTACT.

GLO is interested in research papers for a special session related to the Labor Markets of Countries in South East Europe; GLO members who wish to contribute to this are invited to send an abstract by April 20 to Klaus F. Zimmermann. (klaus.f.zimmermann@gmail.com)

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April 1, 2019. Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili on their research for Italy ‘What works for youth employment?’. GLO Research for Policy Note No. 1


Francesco Pastore is Associate Professor of Political Economy at the University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli & Fellow and Country Lead for Italy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Marco Pompili is Researcher at Ismeri Europa and GLO Fellow.

GLO Research for Policy Note No. 1 – Theme 4. Population dynamics: youth employment and participation

What works for youth employment? An evaluation of an Italian regional integrated program of active labour market policies

by Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili

In a recent GLO Discussion Paper, we have studied the effect of PIPOL (Piano integrato di politiche per l’occupazione e il lavoro), an integrated programme of active labour market policies, launched by the Italian Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia in 2014, to facilitate the increasingly difficult school to work transitions for young people. The programme grouped different funding sources, including those originating from the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI), (an initiative supporting young people in European Union countries, living in regions with high young unemployment rate). The Programme provided employment and training services to increase the employability of participants.
____________________

What we should know

  • PIPOL is targeted at different groups of people with different needs: Group 1 includes young people aged 15-19 years at risk of dropping out of school; Group 2 includes young NEETs (Not-in-Education-Employment-or-Training) under the age of 30; Group 3 includes under-30 youngsters with a high-school diploma or a professional qualification attained within the last 12 months; Group 4 includes young people under-30 with a university degree obtained at least 12 months earlier; Group 5 includes unemployed people or at risk of unemployment.
  • The participation in PIPOL is structured in three phases. Phase one is registration: young participants who think to be eligible can register on-line or go to a Public Employment Service (PES) or other institutions for specific groups. In phase two, orientation services are provided  and  participants are profiled according to their needs band; this service has to be offered to people within 60 days from the registration to the PESs. An individual action plan is established, showing the type of active policies to be administered. Phase three is the implementation of active measures, such as on-the-job training, classroom traineeship, labour incentives, support to business creation.
  • Our evaluation focussed on the first stage of PIPOL, in particular on the interventions of off-the-job and on-the-job training completed by the end of 2016.
  • Our analysis focused on 4,962 off-the-job training courses and 3,361 internships, that were completed by the end of 2016. In terms of participants, the study covered 7,175 young people, of which 4,059 women. Overall, 3,911 attended off-the-job training; 2,945 attended on-the-job training; and 319 both types of intervention.
  • To assess the impact, we have resorted to a counterfactual approach: a control group is extracted by means of PSM or Mahalanobis matching among those who registered in the program over the years 2014-16, but have never benefited of the program. In other words, the econometric procedure is organized in two steps. In step one, we draw a random sample of individuals from the group of those who registered in the program but did not attend because of the lack of suitable financial resources. The selection is done in such a way that the target and control group have exactly the same characteristics.
  • The Mahanobis matching is more accurate since it implies that only individuals with exactly the same characteristics are selected. In step two, we compare the probability to find a job by the program participants and the control group to see whether the former has a higher probability of employment than the latter. This allowed us controlling for observed heterogeneity through a battery of control variables (age, gender, citizenship, education, province of residence and also pre-program work experience) and for unobserved heterogeneity, by extracting the control group using the same pool of individuals registered in the program.
  • We used data from two main sources: 1) different data banks from the administration of the program and 2) information on outcome variables obtained from compulsory communications  that employers have to make to employment services whenever any labour contract is signed or completed/ended.

What works? On-the-job training has the greatest impact!

  • We found that the net impact of PIPOL is equal to 5 percentage point (pp) on average, meaning that people who benefited from the Programme have an average  probability to be employed 5 percentage points higher than people who did not.
  • The greatest impact was found for on-the-job training, and no significant impact  was observed for in-room training. On-the Job training  also  increased the probability of finding permanent work (+3pp). This is consistent with the view of a youth labour market where young people have excellent theoretical competences, but very little work experience and work-related competences (Pastore, 2015; 2018).
  • The off-the-job training programs did not show statistically significant impact on employment, but did affect the probability to experience at least one labour contract after 2016.
  • These results are partly due to a lock-in effect, namely the tendency of those who attend training programs to put off their effort in job search.
  • Interestingly, we found that the program has a different impact for different typologies of recipients and different types of intervention. The scheme seems to have a greater net impact in the case of women, foreigners and young people with lower education.
  • Some forms of off-the-job training still have a positive net impact on employment chances (training to gain a qualification).
  • Internships in manufacturing and construction show a greater impact than in the service sector, although the service sector is experiencing a larger expansion overall.

____________________
This study represents an important addition to the Italian and global literature on programme evaluation regarding school to work transitions,  considering the small number of such studies, noted also in the recent review of the literature by Card et al. (2010). It is one of the first analysis of the effect of interventions  implemented within the YEI. To our knowledge, there is only a previous paper assessing the impact of YEI in Latvia (Bratti M. et al. 2018) and the evaluation of the Italian YEI (Isfol, 2016), the latter focusing on the very short-term effects. Our findings suggest that active labour market policies for youth are more effective in Italy when they are directly related to the production of work-related competences.

References
Angrist, D. & J. Pischke (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Bratti, M. & al. (2018). Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design, IZA Discussion Paper No. 1187.
Card, D., J. Kluwe and A. Weber (2010). Active Labor Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis. Economic Journal, 120 (548): F452-F477.
Card, D., & al. (2018). What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations. Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3): 894-931.
Isfol. (2016). Primo Rapporto di valutazione del Piano italiano Garanzia Giovani. Roma: Ministero del Lavoro.
Pastore, F. (2018). Why So Slow? The School-to-Work Transition in Italy. Forthcoming in Studies in Higher Education.
Pastore, F. (2015). The Youth Experience Gap. Explaining National Differences in the School-to-Work Transition, Springer Briefs in Economics, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg.
Patore, F. & M. Pompili (2019). Assessing the Impact of Off- and On-the-job Training on Employment Outcomes. A Counterfactual Evaluation of the PIPOL Program, GLO Discussion Paper No. 333.

NOTE: Opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

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May 23-24, 2019: Bucharest. 5th International Conference on “Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research”

GLO Fellow Adrian Cantemir Calin of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, organizes the 5th International Conference on Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research on May 23-24, 2019 at the Romanian Academy in Bucharest. See below for more details.

The conference takes great pride in offering young researcher an opportunity to discuss their work in the current economic context. In this line, the organizers are continuing the tradition of the “young talent” section, aiming to provide a vehicle for scientific dissemination for an even younger audience. Under this section they welcome papers from PhD students, master students and even bachelor students that aim at a career in academic research.


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Guangzhou, China; Jinan University, March 21-22, 2019. IESR-GLO Workshop on ‘Belt and Road’ – Labor Markets. What are the challenges on human resources issues? The exchange has begun.

GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has visited the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University in Guangzhou, China, at IESR, Jinan University during 17 – 24 March, 2019. On March 21 – 22, he had organized IESR-GLO Workshop on ‘Belt and Road’ Labor Markets together with GLO Fellow Shuaizhang Feng, the Dean of IESR. The focus of the workshop was China, South Asia and South East Asia. For the workshop program see below.


Shuaizhang Feng, Dean of IESR

March 21st, 2019
9:30-9:40 Welcome remarks by Shuaizhang Feng and Klaus F. Zimmermann
9:40-10:40 Michele Bruni: China and the BRI Countries at a Demographic Crossroad: Labour Market Implications, Challenges and Opportunities
10:40-11:10 Group Picture and Coffee Break
11:10-11:50 Asad Islam: Can Referral Improve Targeting? Evidence from a Training Experiment
11:50-13:50 Lunch
13:50-14:30 Jinseong Park: Parental Wealth, Time to First Job, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Housing Wealth Shocks in South Korea
14:30-14:50 Coffee Break
14:50-15:30 M Niaz Asadullah: Female Seclusion from Paid Work: A Social Norm or Cultural Preference?
15:30-16:10 Shuaizhang Feng: The Challenge of Internal Migration on China’s Long Term Sustainable Growth

Park, Ouch, Asadullah

Dinner with Associate Dean and GLO Fellow Sisi Zhang (second from right)
GLO Fellows (from left) Xue, Park, Assadullah, Bruni, Ouch, and Islam with Zimmermann

March 22nd, 2019
9:00-9:40 Chandarany Ouch: China’s BRI and Challenges and Opportunities for Cambodia’s Labour Market 9:40-10:20
Sen Xue: Institutional Restrictions on Migration and Migrant Consumption and Savings Response
10:20-10:40 Coffee Break
10:40-11:20 Klaus F. Zimmermann: Arsenic Contamination of Drinking Water in Bangladesh: Knowledge and Response
11:20-12:00 Round Table Discussion
12:00-14:00 Lunch

Zimmermann, Ouch & Feng

List of GLO Participants
Michele Bruni: Professor at Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies, University of Modena, Team Leader of EU-China Social Protection Reform Project
Shuaizhang Feng: Professor and Dean of IESR, Jinan University
Asad Islam: Associate Professor of Department of Economics, Monash University
M Niaz Asadullah: Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Univ of Malaya
Chandarany Ouch: Research Fellow, Head of Economics Unit, Cambodia Development Resource Institute
Jinseong Park: Assistant Professor of IESR, Jinan University
Sen Xue: Assistant Professor of IESR, Jinan University
Klaus F. Zimmermann: Professor of Bonn University and UNU-MERIT, President of the Global Labor Organization

Group Photo of the Workshop

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GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann visited IESR in Guangzhou. IESR Dean Shuaizhang Feng appointed Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.

Arriving from Kuala Lumpur, where he had spent time as a Visiting Professor at the University of Malaya, GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann arrived on March 17 in Guangzhou, China, to work a full week at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University.

Jinan University (JNU) was founded in 1906 by the Qing government in Nanjing as the first university in China to enroll overseas Chinese students. Now, it is the top university in mainland China for international students and it has fully devoted itself to creating a culture of openness, diversity and creativity among its faculty and students.

The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) was created in December 2015 by appointing Yangtze River Scholar Professor Shuaizhang Feng appointed as the first Dean. The mission of IESR is to advance policy-oriented economic and social research addressing the most relevant challenges of the modern China. Within a short time, IESR has gained a strong faculty of significant researchers and a global reputation of excellence.

IESR has been an early supporter and collaborator of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Dean and Professor Shuaizhang Feng is a GLO Fellow of the first hour. During his second visit to IESR, Klaus F. Zimmermann met again with many IESR researchers to discuss their latest research.

Shuaizhang Feng was also recently appointed Editor of the Journal of Population Economics published by Springer Nature. The Journal, the leader of the academic field of Population Economics, is directed by Zimmermann, who is the Editor-in-Chief. Both Feng and Zimmermann had various talks about the further collaborations to strenghten IESR, GLO and the Journal of Population Economics.

At IESR, Zimmermann was working in the Jim Heckman room….

After discussions with visitor Wenkai Sun, Professor & Labor Economist of the Renmin University of China, Beijing, and GLO Fellow. As an Honorary Professor of Beijing University, Zimmermann has frequently visited Beijing.

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GLO President Zimmermann appointed Visiting Professor at the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in March 2019. Highlights from the visit.

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Professor Emeritus of Bonn University, Co-Director POP at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, and Honorary Professor Maastricht University, has been appointed Visiting Professor at the Faculty of Economics & Administration of the University of Malaya (UM) for his March visit to Malaysia. He provided academic lectures and debated research issues with colleagues and students. Zimmermann, who is also the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), introduced this large academic network and promoted the Journal of Population Economics, which he is directing as the Editor-in-Chief. He also discussed research initiatives with GLO Fellow M. Niaz Asadullah, (UM), who is also the GLO South -East Asia Research Cluster Lead.

THE PROGRAM AT UM

  • March 10-17, 2019: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Klaus F. Zimmermann has been Visiting Professor at UM. See for the warm welcome with the Dean. The detailed program in Malaysia was as follows:
  • March 12: Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS).
    Klaus F. Zimmermann provided the public University Silver Jubilee Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” and a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. See for details.
  • March 13: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Joint GLO -UM public Seminar on “Introducing GLO –  Pushing the Research Frontier on Labor and Human Resources Issues”. See for more details.
  • March 14: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Joint GU- World Bank Research Seminar of Klaus F. Zimmermann on “Economic Preferences Across Generations“. See for more details.
  • March 15: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Klaus F. Zimmermann provides a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. See for more details.
  • Farewell. See for details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE VISIT


Arrived at the University of Malaya
University of Malaya
In front of the office

Zimmermann with Dean & Prof. Rohana Binti Jani and his host, GLO Fellow and Prof. M. Niaz Asadullah (left)
Lecturing
Zimmermann Lecture at the Joint UN – World Bank Seminar

UM Faculty and Word Bank Researchers from the left: Nai Peng Tey, Young Eun Kim, M. Niaz Asadullah, Noor Azina Ismail, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Ong Sheue Li, Vijayendra Rao and Lim Kian Ping. After lunch following the UM – World Bank Research Seminar.

UM Faculty of Economics and Administration, ‘his’ Visitor’s Committee. From the left: Pui Kiew Ling, Santha A/P Chenayah @ Ramu (Head of the Department of Economics), Lim Kian Ping, Klaus F. Zimmermann, M. Niaz Asadullah and Ong Sheue Li. After lunch in a great local Malaysian Restaurant celebrating the end of a very successful visit with the team.

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Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) in Kota Kinabalu: GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann delivered public University Silver Jubilee Lecture

March 11 -12, 2019. Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Island of Borneo, Malaysia. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann was visiting the Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) and the Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy to celebrate its 25th anniversary. On March 12, he provided the public University Silver Jubilee Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” and gave a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. He was welcomed by a committee consisting of Dean & Associate Prof. Raman Noordin, GLO Fellow Dr. Beatrice Lim and GLO Affiliate & Lecturer Dr. Borhan Abdullah. Beatrice Lim is also a Senior Lecturer and Head of the Human Resource Economics Program of the Faculty. Zimmermann also used the possibility to discuss research and strategic university issues with key officials of UMS and the faculty.

Event banner from the street

About 400 people attended the festive ceremony around the Silver Jubilee Lecture and around 40 stayed to learn and discuss about the art of publishing in good academic journals. The two events were part of a day-long seminar (see below) of the Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” with a series of paper presentations of local scholars in the afternoon.

The event was opened and chaired by Professor Dr. Rasid Mail, Deputy Vice Chancelor (Academic & International), and the introductory speech was delivered by Professor Datuk Dr. Kasim Mansur. The session on publishing was chaired by Senior Lecturer Dr. James Eng. A large number of academic staff, including those of other faculties of the university were attending the event and the discussions in the break.

THE PROGRAM

BROAD MEDIA COVERAGE


Welcome by Prof. Dr. Rasid Mail, Deputy Vice Chancelor (Academic & International)
Internal discussion with top faculty and university official
About 400 registered participants.

Dean Noordin, Zimmermann, Deputy Vice Chancellor Mail & Beatrice Lim

Ready to travel: With Dean & Associate Prof. Raman Noordin

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EBES & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann met EBES activists in Malysia to discuss EBES business issues

Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Bonn University and Maastricht University) is the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the President of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES). EBES and GLO are academic partner organizations with a number of joint activities.

Zimmermann in his role as EBES President is the recent successor of Jonathan A. Batten, currently a distinguished Professor of University Utara Malaysia, who was serving in this function for many years. Batten is also a GLO Fellow.

Noor Azina Ismail, a Professor of Applied Statistics of the University of Malaya, is the local contact for the 30th EBES congress, which will take place on January 8-10, 2020 at the University of Malaya, Faculty of Economics and Administration.

Zimmermann used his visit at UM to meet with Jonathan A. Batten for dinner and with Noor Azina Ismail for lunch to discuss EBES business issues.

Noor Azina Ismail & Klaus F. Zimmermann after lunch.
Klaus F. Zimmermann & Jonathan A. Batten after dinner.

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March 18, 2019. All GLO Discussion Papers of February 2019 & the Discussion Paper of the Month

Morocco, a North-African country that has become a major emigration hub to Europe, has seen many calls for political change over the last few years. The Discussion Paper of the Month of February is using micro data from that country to confirm that social remittances induced by international migrants are drivers of social and political change in the context of Morocco.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: February

GLO DP 309 International Migration as Driver of Political and Social Change: Evidence from Morocco – Download PDF
by Tuccio, Michele & Wahba, Jackline & Hamdouch, Bachir

GLO Fellows Bachir Hamdouch, Michele Tuccio and Jackie Wahba.

Abstract: This paper focuses on the impact of international migration on the transfer of political and social norms. Exploiting recent and unique data on Morocco, it explores whether households with return and current migrants bear different political preferences and behaviours than non-migrant families. Once controlling for the double selection into emigration and return migration, findings suggest that having a returnee in the household increases the demand for political and social change, driven by returnees mostly from Western European countries, who have been exposed to more democratic norms at destination. However, we find a negative impact of having a current migrant on the willingness to change of the left-behind household, driven by migrants to non-West countries, where the quality of political and social institutions is lower. Our results are robust to also controlling for destination selectivity.  

GLO Discussion Papers of February 2019

328 Short-Run Health Consequences of Retirement and Pension Benefits: Evidence from China Download PDF
by Nikolov, Plamen & Adelman, Alan

327 Tracking the Sustainable Development Goals: Emerging Measurement Challenges and Further Reflections – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Fu, Haishan & Serajuddin, Umar

326 Public Employment Decline in Developing Countries in the 21st Century: The Role of Globalization – Download PDF
by Gözgör, Giray & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

325 The Nativity Wealth Gap in Europe: a Matching Approach – Download PDF
by Ferrari, Irene

324 The Evolution of Factor Shares: Evidence from Switzerland – Download PDF
by Baldi, Guido & Pons, Martina

323 Timed to Say Goodbye: Does Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Affect Worker Layoffs? – Download PDF
by Albanese, Andrea & Ghirelli, Corinna & Picchio, Matteo

322 Beyond the Average: Ethnic Capital Heterogeneity and Intergenerational Transmission of Education – Download PDF
by Chakrabortya, Tanika & Schüller, Simone & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

321 The Growing Divergence in U.S. Employee Relations: Individualism, Democracy, and Conflict – Download PDF
by Norlander, Peter

320Innovation, Automation, and Inequality: Policy Challenges in the Race against the Machine – Download PDF
by Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger

319 English skills, labour market status and earnings of Turkish women – Download PDF
by Di Paolo, Antonio & Tansel, Aysit

318 Improving Access and Quality in Early Childhood Development Programs: Experimental Evidence from The Gambia – Download PDF
by Blimpo, Moussa P. & Carneiro, Pedro & Jervis, Pamela & Pugatch, Todd

317 Motherhood, Migration, and Self-Employment of College Graduates  – Download PDF
by  Cai, Zhengyu & Stephens, Heather M. & Winters, John V.

316 Whither the evolution of the contemporary social fabric? New technologies and old socio-economic trends – Download PDF
by  Dosi, Giovanni & Virgillito, Maria Enrica

315 Are there gains to joining a union? Evidence from Mexico – Download PDF
by  Gutiérrez Rufrancos & Héctor Elías

314 Home advantage in European international soccer: Which dimension of distance matters? – Download PDF
by  Van Damme, Nils & Baert, Stijn

313 Twelve eyes see more than eight. Referee bias and the introduction of additional assistant referees in soccer – Download PDF
by  Verstraeten, Olivier & Baert, Stijn

312 Works Councils and Workplace Health Promotion in Germany – Download PDF
by Jirjahn, Uwe & Mohrenweiser, Jens & Smith, Stephen C.

311 Does Society Influence the Gender Gap in Risk Attitudes? Evidence from East and West Germany – Download PDF
by Chadi, Cornelia & Jirjahn, Uwe

310 Immigration and unemployment in Europe: does the core-periphery dualism matter?  – Download PDF
by Esposito, Piero & Collignon, Stefan & Scicchitano, Sergio

309 International Migration as Driver of Political and Social Change: Evidence from Morocco – Download PDF
by Tuccio, Michele & Wahba, Jackline & Hamdouch, Bachir

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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Call for papers: Urban & Territorial Themes (NESPUTT 2019) 21-22 of November 2019 in Milan/Italy

Deadline for the submission of abstracts is 30 June 2019.

New Economic & Statistical Perspectives on Urban & Territorial Themes (NESPUTT 2019)

The Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology and Social Sciences (CISEPS) and the Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) at the University of Milan-Bicocca in collaboration with the Regional Economic Modelling Team (REMO) of the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) are organizing an international workshop entitled New Economic & Statistical Perspectives on Urban and Territorial Themes (NESPUTT), which will take place in Milan on the 21st and 22nd of November 2019.

The workshop aims at fostering an interdisciplinary debate involving economists, statisticians, modellers and other social scientists towards a better understanding of contemporary regions and cities, viewed as complex socio-economic systems. The NESPUTT Workshop encourages contributions about new theoretical/methodological approaches and applied research from regional economics, behavioral economics, environmental economics, experimental economics, statistics and other quantitative disciplines.

The following list illustrates, but does not exhaust, possible topics applied to regional and urban themes:

  • Behavioral economics
  • Digital transformation
  • Environmental economics
  • Experimental economics
  • Inequality
  • Innovation and competitiveness
  • Migration
  • Nudging
  • Regional divide
  • Regional economic adjustment and development
  • Small areas
  • Social exclusion
  • Social mobility
  • Spatial modelling/statistics/econometric

Submissions of papers based on the application of behavioral, experimental and computational economics approaches to urban studies are also welcome. Special sessions devoted to particularly innovative approaches may be organized.

Participation of interested researchers and policy makers from all countries is welcome.

Proceedings: The NESPUTT2019 workshop will publish an electronic “Papers and Proceedings” edition with ISBN highlighting selected short papers (maximum 4 pages) from the meeting. You must indicate that your paper is to be included in the proceedings.

Location of the conference: University of Milan-Bicocca, Piazza dell’Ateneo Nuovo 1, Milan.

Scientific Committee: Riccardo Borgoni (UnimiB), Andrea Caragliu (PoliMi), Andrea Conte (European Commission JRC), André De Palma (ENS Paris Saclays), Giacomo Degli Antoni (University of Parma), Marco Faillo (University of Trento), Patrizio Lecca (European Commission, JRC), Alessandra Michelangeli (UnimiB), Nathalie Picard (University of Cergy-Pontoise).

Organizing Committee: Riccardo Borgoni (UnimiB), Antonella Carcagnì (UnimiB); Andrea Gilardi (UnimiB), Alessandra Michelangeli (UnimiB).

The link to the abstract submission site is https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=nesputt2019

Important dates:

  • 30 June 2019 – Deadline for abstract submission.
  • 20 July 2019 – Acceptance notification.
  • 20 September 2019 – Deadline for early registration.
  • 30 October 2019 – Standard registration deadline.
  • 21-22 November 2019 – Workshop at University of Milan-Bicocca.

Further information will be available from April 2019 on the workshop website http://www.nesputt2019.unimib.it/

Should you have any questions, please send an email to nesputt2019@unimib.it

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March 1, 2019. Azita Berar on ‘Automation, jobs and inequality’. GLO Policy Brief No. 1

Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.

GLO Policy Brief No. 1 – Theme 3. Future of Work


Automation, jobs and inequality

by Azita Berar

There is growing apprehension about new waves of technological development in particular about the implications of increasing automation and use of robotics  displacing human labour. To date, research and policy debate have mostly focused on the estimation of potential job losses that such technologies will entail sometimes with alarmist conclusions. We argue for considering a broader frame of analysis for research and policy that takes account of wider economic and societal implications, including the distributional issues and the need for policy to re-engineer new and evolving social institutions.
____________________

What we should know

  • Recent empirical studies (see selected references below) have focused mostly on the job destruction and substitution impact in the US, other advanced countries and in a few emerging economies. Through different methodologies applied and assumptions made to project potential job losses, they reach very different conclusions about the number of jobs and/or the types of jobs that will be substituted. Their estimates vary greatly – by no less than 5 times amongst the most alarmist and the lowest band – even when focusing on the same economy and/ or sector.
  • The new job creation impact of automation within the same sector or the broader economy is usually underestimated. There are examples of  automation technology widely used today that clearly show the positive net job creation and economic expansion. The most cited example is the ATM innovation in the banking sector dispensing human tellers. There has been massive redeployment and upgrading of jobs of former tellers to offer different and higher quality banking products and services. Productivity gains have been invested in the expansion of the sector, in turn leading to new jobs and incomes within and outside the sector.
  • Another fast-evolving technological innovation is “co-bots”, where robots “co- work” along with (or assist) human workers. Used in the automotive and the health industry for example, these have contributed to reducing the drudgery and improving the quality of jobs for humans. And potentially leading to as many new jobs for humans as the use of this type of automation spreads.
  • It is also important to distinguish between the availability of technology that could  replace or displace a certain job/task – a starting premise of recent projections on automation induced job losses – and the probability that the technology will be adopted on a large scale replacing all such jobs/ tasks. There are gaps, sometimes very significant, between the two. This gap is larger in developing countries and amongst them, where as noted, there has been relatively little research. And where the diffusion and impact of automation can not be deducted from current estimates focusing on a limited set of countries and sectors.
  • An interplay of multiple factors pushing in different directions determines the pace and scale of adoption of automation innovation that goes beyond a simple comparison of relative cost among robots and human labour.
  • Understanding the decision-making process of managers and investors in the spread and large-scale adoption of automation is also key. Rarely, automation alone, in the absence of a broader firm strategy,  provides the competitive edge for increased profitability and productivity.
  • There are also wide sectoral variations in the nature of automation innovation and the dynamics of job, income and productivity gains and losses that could incur. A sector/industry focus would shed more light into specific dynamics.  Another under-researched area is the dissemination of technology within sectors and across borders including through global supply chains in highly globalized industries.
  • From a societal perspective, the key issue is how the productivity gains will be invested and/or distributed and through which mechanisms and institutions. This is highly important not from the angle of equity but for sustaining demand in the medium to long term.
  • Throughout previous waves of industrial revolutions and technological disruptions, starting with the mechanization of spinning and weaving in Britain’s textile industry the mid-18th century, there has been apprehension with regard to destruction of jobs and distribution of wealth and well-being. Then and now, there has been a sharp divide between optimists and pessimists! Looking back the reality has overtaken all projected scenarios in very different directions but it has also led to social engineering, policy innovations and the creation of new institutions to tackle wider societal implications.

Will it be different this time? Context and policy matter.

Automation in unequal and polarized environment

  • This new round of rapid automation innovations is taking place amidst a highly polarized environment.
  • Labour markets remain tight: globally 192 million people are unemployed of which over 70 million are young women and men. In many instances, the youth unemployment rate is three times higher than adult unemployment and female unemployment twice that of male unemployment. And these figures do not take into account the “discouraged workers”, those who have given up looking for a job. Quality of jobs is a concern. About 1.4 billion people are working in “vulnerable forms” of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) and this number is on the rise. Informality is widespread particularly in developing and emerging countries, where it reaches more than 60 per cent of total employment. There are large segments of population affected by “working poverty”, those who work but are trapped in poverty.
  • Rising inequality and polarization: in the last two decades, most regions have experienced an increase in income inequality. During the same period, there has been a decline in the share of income that goes to labour relative to capital. And this pattern has persisted while labour productivity has increased. Concerns with hollowing out of the middle class and income polarization along different groups of population galvanizes headlines regularly and feed into social unrest. These trends left unattended, automation is likely to exacerbate the inequalities and vulnerabilities and entail more apprehension, whether founded or not on evidence, and more resistance to change.

A broader policy and research agenda

  • For a more positive outlook into the future of automation and work in this environment, there is a need for a broader value-driven policy and research agenda that  engages multiple actors, spans to other geographies and provides a more integrated perspective. Beyond net job destruction and creation counts, induced by automation, distribution of jobs and skills, productivity and income gains should be the focus of research and policy.
  • Space for dialogues. There are examples of how more acceptable and equitable outcomes can be negotiated through social dialogue. The highly automated Hamburg Port is a case in point. Advanced automation has been accompanied by internal redeployment of employees to other jobs and tasks, their re-skilling and up-skilling packages, and redistribution of productivity gains through new working time arrangements and wage compensations.
  • Another innovative form of dialogue to explore, is dialogue among scientists and technology innovators with the research community in economic and social sciences.
  • Transition policies should become permanent features of public policy action and enterprise strategies, facilitating redeployment within firm, sector or economy. Use of  fiscal policies as well as private sector financing  can support active transitions in particular for those made vulnerable to automation, and who are in structural disadvantage in the labour markets.
  • Expansion and distribution of learning and re-skilling opportunities as automation and other technological innovations require different and continuously evolving  set of skills. Their accessibility to those who need them most can be powerful means to reduce inequalities.

The challenges of disruption in labour markets as a result of new waves of automation are real but more complex than a narrow focus on the potential job displacement and job creation impact. While this time too, the future may evolve in unpredictable ways, there is a need for a broader policy and research agenda and actions that accompany these transformations. In the polarized environment of today and the rapid pace of technological innovation, the time is now and the time span is limited to invest in new social engineering  and cooperative mechanisms that create more equitable and sustainable outcomes.

__________________


Arntz, Melanie; Gregory; Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich. 2016. “The risk of automation for jobs in OECD Countries: A comparative analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 189. Paris, OECD Publishing.

Frey, Carl Benedikt; Osborne, Michael. 2013. “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”, Oxford, Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a revised version of which was published in 2017 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 114.

ILO, Employment Policy Brief 2017. New automation technologies and job creation and destruction dynamics.

McKinsey Global Institute. 2017. A future that works: automation, employment, and productivity.

World Economic Forum. 2018. The Future of Jobs Report 2018.

World Bank. 2016. World development report 2016: Digital dividend. Washington DC, World Bank.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

Ends;

Call for Papers Kigali June 2019: 4th International Conference of Eastern Africa Business and Economic Watch (4th EABEW-2019)

Theme: “Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation”  
June 12-14, 2019, College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, Kigali  
 

  • NOTE: Deadline for paper submissions is APRIL 30!
  • June 12-14: Kigali, Rwanda. College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda. 4th EABEW Conference (International Conference of Eastern Africa Business and Economic Watch) on “Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation” with GLO support. GLO Fellows Manfred Fischedick, Almas Heshmati and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann are among the invited speakers. Call for Papers with deadline April 30, 2019. Almas Heshmati is the academic Lead of the GLO Research Cluster on “Labor Markets in Africa”. GLO Fellow Rama B. Rao is the Chair of the Organizing Committee of the conference.
  • Call for Papers. Original evidence based theoretical, methodological, empirical research, policy or practice oriented research papers on the theme are invited from researchers, academicians, industry practitioners for presentation at the conference. Submitted papers should be in the areas of economics and business management and any other interdisciplinary fields that contribute to socio-economic transformation that may fall in any of the tracks defined in the call.
  • For other GLO Events see the GLO event calendar.

Ends;

Forthcoming Deadlines of GLO – supported events: Coventry/UK: February 28 and Brasov/Romania: March 1.

Deadlines of Forthcoming Scientific Conferences supported by the GLO:

Ends;

Journal of Population Economics: Issue 2/2019 Table of Content & Ten New Associate Editors

Journal of Population Economics. Volume 32 Number 2 is now available online.

Ten new articles in Population Economics are published, see listing and access below. Ten new Associate Editors have been appointed. Their names and pictures are below.

In this issue: TABLE OF CONTENT and article access
National identity under economic integration
Chun-Fang Chiang, Jin-Tan Liu & Tsai-Wei Wen
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
OPEN ACCESS TO THE PUBLIC for a limited time!
Concrete measures: the rise of public housing and changes in young single motherhood in the U.S.
Katharine L. Shester, Samuel K. Allen & Christopher Handy
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Does public insurance coverage for pregnant women affect prenatal health behaviors?
Dhaval M. Dave, Robert Kaestner & George L. Wehby
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Closing or reproducing the gender gap? Parental transmission, social norms and education choice
Maria Knoth Humlum, Anne Brink Nandrup & Nina Smith
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Intergenerational income mobility: access to top jobs, the low-pay no-pay cycle and the role of
education in a common framework
Paul Gregg, Lindsey Macmillan & Claudia Vitto
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF OPEN ACCESS TO THE PUBLIC
Family support or social support? The role of clan culture
Chuanchuan Zhang
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Revisiting the relationship between longevity and lifetime education: global evidence from
919 surveys
Mohammad Mainul Hoque, Elizabeth M. King, Claudio E. Montenegro & Peter F. Orazem
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth
Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Premature mortality and poverty measurement in an OLG economy
Mathieu Lefèbvre, Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF
Unequal hopes and lives in the USA: optimism, race, place, and premature mortality
Carol Graham & Sergio Pinto
» Abstract   » Full text HTML   » Full text PDF

Newly appointed Associate Editors

  • Quamrul Ashraf, Williams College, USA
  • Andrew Clark, Paris School of Economics, France
  • Avraham Ebenstein, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
  • Shuaizhang Feng, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
  • Moshe Hazan, Tel Aviv University, Israel
  • Eliana La Ferrara, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
  • Terra McKinnish, University of Colorado, USA
  • Jessamyn Schaller, University of Arizon, USA
  • Kompal Sinha, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
  • Rainer Winkelmann, University of Zurich, Switzerland

Ends;

5 February 2019. GLO Discussion Papers January 2019 & Discussion Paper of the Month

The discussion paper of the month explores the vote on the Swiss minaret initiative in 2009 as a natural experiment to identify the effect of newly revealed reservations towards immigrants on their location choices. The research finds that the probability of  immigrants to relocate to  a municipality that unexpectedly revealed stronger negative attitudes towards them is significantly reduced in the time after the vote. The effect seems to apply to all immigrant groups – Muslim, non-European and European -, and to be stronger for high-skilled immigrants.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: January

305 The Deterrent Effect of an Anti-Minaret Vote on Foreigners’ Location Choices – Download PDF
by Slotwinski, Michaela & Stutzer, Alois

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                      GLO Fellow Michaela Slotwinski

Abstract: In a national ballot in 2009, Swiss citizens surprisingly approved an amendment to the Swiss constitution to ban the further construction of minarets. The ballot outcome manifested reservations and anti-immigrant attitudes in regions of Switzerland which had previously been hidden. We exploit this fact as a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of negative attitudes towards immigrants on foreigners’ location choices and thus indirectly on their utility. Based on a regression discontinuity design with unknown discontinuity points and administrative data on the population of foreigners, we find that the probability of their moving to a municipality which unexpectedly expressed stronger reservations decreases initially by about 40 percent. The effect is accompanied by a drop of housing prices in these municipalities and levels off over a period of about 5 months. Moreover, foreigners in high-skill occupations react relatively more strongly highlighting a tension when countries try to attract well-educated professionals from abroad. 

GLO Discussion Papers of January 2019

308 Technological Unemployment Revisited: Automation in a Search and Matching Framework – Download PDF
by Cords, Dario & Prettner, Klaus

307 Gender, culture and STEM: Counter-intuitive patterns in Arab society– Download PDF
by Friedman-Sokuler, Naomi & Justman, Moshe

306 Time preferences and political regimes: Evidence from reunified Germany– Download PDF
by Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus

305 The Deterrent Effect of an Anti-Minaret Vote on Foreigners’ Location Choices – Download PDF
by Slotwinski, Michaela & Stutzer, Alois

304 Tropical Storms and Mortality under Climate Change – Download PDF
by Pugatch, Todd

303 The Post-Crisis Phillips Curve: A New Empirical Relationship between Wage and Inflation  – Download PDF
by Voinea, Liviu

302 Marshallian vs Jacobs effects: which one is stronger? Evidence for Russia unemployment dynamics  – Download PDF
by Demidova, Olga & Kolyagina, Alena & Pastore, Francesco

301 The World at the Crossroad. Demographic Polarization and Mass Migration. Global threat or global opportunity  – Download PDF
by Bruni, Michele

300 The Belt and Road Initiative. Demographic trends, labour markets and welfare systems of member countries  – Download PDF
by Bruni, Michele

299  The unprotecting effects of employment protection: the impact of the 2001 labor reform in Peru – Download PDF
by Jaramillo, Miguel

298  Measuring the Statistical Capacity of Nations  – Download PDF
by Cameron, Grant J. & Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Dinc, Mustafa & Foster, James & Lokshin, Michael M.

297  Inequality and Welfare Dynamics in the Russian Federation during 1994-2015  – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Lokshin, Michael M. & Abanokova, Kseniya & Bussolo, Maurizio

296  A Beveridge curve decomposition for Austria: what drives the unemployment rate?  – Download PDF
by Christl, Michael

295 Health, Cognition and Work Capacity Beyond the Age of 50   – Download PDF
by Vandenberghe, Vincent

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org

Ends;

8 February 2019. GLO-MSUIIT Public Lecture by M Niaz Asadullah on “Education 4.0: Technology, Teachers and Learners” on the Philippines.

On 8 February 2019, M Niaz Asadullah, Professor at the University of Malaya, Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and GLO Lead for South-East Asia, gives the

GLO-MSUIIT Public Lecture on “Education 4.0: Technology, Teachers and Learners”.

The event takes place on 8.00 am to 12:00 pm at the Amphitheatre, College of Education, Mindanao State University, Iligan Institute of Technology (MSUIIT), Philippines.

Abstract

This lecture provides an overview of the challenges that developing country education systems face to prepare youths for Industry 4.0. I start with a critical overview of the global “learning crisis” and summarize the evidence on automation risks. I then discuss how teachers are responding to these two challenges by adopting new technologies to re-design the learning space in order to impart 21st Century skills and future-proof the labor force. The discussion also highlights some of the factors that limit the potential positive impact of technology on learners in developing countries. I conclude by discussing the importance of system-wide reforms and early interventions to deliver New Economy skills and achieve the SDG 4 target of quality education for all.

EVENT FLYER FOR MORE INFORMATION


M Niaz Asadullah

Ends;

Marco Leonardi on the fate of the Italian labor market reforms & his new book

Marco Leonardi, economic advisor to two prime ministers in the Italian government from 2014 to 2018, has just published a new book on his experience in office during the Italian labor market reforms and the threatened future perspectives of those changes:

The hijacked reforms: why there is no coming back from labor and pension reform. Le Riforme Dimezzate, EGEA 2018 (in Italian).

Italy has passed three important reforms in the past four years—of the labor market, of the pension system and the introduction of a universal measure against poverty. All these reforms are already being undone, and yet this book explains, from the perspective of someone who worked within the Prime Minister’s policy unit, why there should not be any coming back from the main changes in the labor market and in the pension system.  

The author – The book – The Interview

The author

Marco Leonardi

Former Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of the Italian Government and Full Professor of Economics at the University of Milan, Italy. He received his PhD from the London School of Economics and spent visiting periods at MIT, Georgetown and Berkeley. His research interests are in labor economics, inequality and education.

The book

To buy the book

“In this book I describe the birth of labor market reform from within the policy unit of the Prime Minister’s Office. In addition, I discuss two other major reforms undertaken in the past four years: the pension reform and the introduction of a universal measure against poverty. I approach these topics from both the political (how and why certain policy decisions were taken) and the technical perspective. I refer to the many (at times difficult) relations between the government and other administrations, as well as the unions, and the lengthy political and administrative process required to enact a law, from the first parliamentary draft up to the implementation of the software to request the new subsidy online (in the case of the new subsidy for the poor). No law produces real effects until the moment it is “online,” and several steps are required to reach that point. Very often the laws are ineffective because their implementation is flawed, and a policy unit’s job is to drive  the laws through their implementation process.

The most important reform has been the labor market reform (called the “Jobs Act”). This reform is recognized internationally because it was adopted amid the international debate on “flexsecurity” and the increasing protection of the open-ended contract (or single contract).

During the 1990s there was considerable continuity in the employment protection legislation of OECD countries, with one major exception: the deregulation of fixed-term contracts and other non-standard labor relationships. Particularly in Southern Europe, changes in labor market policy consisted mainly of measures aimed at introducing “flexibility at the margin,” that is, making the utilization of non-permanent contracts more loosely regulated while leaving the discipline of permanent employment unchanged. Flexibility at the margin, however, amplified the two-tier nature of labor markets, raising concerns over the risk of labor market “dualism” or “segmentation.” Triggered by these concerns, public opinion and policy-makers have repeatedly stressed the importance of searching for “an appropriate balance between flexibility and security” (the so-called “flexsecurity,” as pointed to by the European Commission in multiple documents).

The Jobs Act marks a stark change with respect to the approach to flexibility at the margin by reducing firing costs for permanent employment and by making them both (a) predictable ex ante and (b) increasing according to the worker’s tenure within the firm. By doing so, the Jobs Act aims at reducing dualism in the labor market, fostering human capital accumulation, increasing job mobility to cope with structural adjustment, and favoring workers’ protection “in the market.”

The most controversial aspect of the reform has certainly been the abolition of the possibility of a worker’s reinstatement (“reintegro”) after illegitimate dismissal for economic motives. This provision is limited to contracts signed after the reform (March 7, 2015) and entails a drastic limitation to the possibility of reinstatement, even in case of disciplinary dismissal. This substantial uniformity of firing costs for both disciplinary and economic cases is necessary to curb the incentive to surreptitiously justify dismissals so that they allow for reinstatement, an outcome that would have certainly increased the number of cases litigated in court. For consistency, the ability to reinstate workers has also been excluded for collective dismissals, as they have in essence an economic motivation. The abolition of the possibility of reinstatement has certainly given birth to a clear-cut reform, a fact that has been welcomed by international investors. Besides the new rules on firing costs, generous employment subsidies were introduced to incentivize the use of open-ended contracts.

Another qualifying aspect of the reform scheme is the introduction of a fast track for the settlement of dismissals (“conciliazione rapida”). The aim is to promote consensual resolution of disputed terminations (as well as other possible disputes). Contrary to other proposals for a “single contract” with increasing firing costs, which would have introduced non-appealable compensation, the reform scheme embraces the fast-track settlement model introduced by the German and French employment protection legislations. The latter, though, are different from the solution adopted in the Italian Jobs Act as they don’t bind the court to award compensation according to a predetermined schedule (which in the Jobs Act amounts to two months for each year of contract tenure, up to a maximum of 24 months).

Unfortunately, this feature of the reform was declared illegitimate after three years, in spring 2018, by the Italian Constitutional Court, and therefore today the reforms are “dimezzate” (or “hijacked”: the title of the book refers to the reversal of many reforms under the new government, of which this case is  among the most serious).

The success of the reform is measured by the reduction of court litigation in cases of dismissal (which was reduced by 80%, but unfortunately began to rise again after the decision of the Constitutional Court), and by the shortening of the amount of time young workers spend in temporary contracts (that is, the average length of the initial part of one’s career regulated by fixed-term contracts) and the resulting share of permanent hiring among total hires. The expected substitution of fixed-term contracts unfortunately has not happened: in 2014, roughly 70% of hiring was through fixed-term contracts, and only 17% open-ended; in 2015 and 2016, the share of open-ended contracts increased considerably, but in 2018, when the generous employment subsidies ended, the share of new hiring in open-ended contracts went back to the 2014 levels.

We made a mistake in allowing the coexistence of a very liberal regime for fixed-term contracts and of the new open-ended contract with increasing protection. Employers are reluctant to hire on open-ended contracts, and if left with the easy outlet of fixed-term contracts, they will not change their preferences. Furthermore, after having established a national system of active labor market policies to favor the reallocation of workers (after 20 years of debate, Italy finally has a national agency and a common measure to manage active labor market policies across 20 regions), we were too slow in the implementation process; as a result, public opinion has become aware of the more liberal regime on firings but not the new policy of support through active labor market policies.

While much of the reform process is now in reversal, when these very incisive labor market reforms were introduced they faced no opposition and Italy enjoyed four continuous years of employment growth (which has now been interrupted under the new government).

Further details of the labor market reforms and my suggestions regarding future action can be found in the interview below. Additional information on some of the other reforms, including pensions, wage bargaining and measures against poverty, can be found in the book, only available currently in Italian.”

The interview

GLO: What were the essential elements of the Italian labor market reforms?

Marco Leonardi: The main policy tools of the Jobs Act (and the main reversals under the new government since June 2018) can be summarized as follows:

First, “Contratto a tutele crescenti,” i.e., the open-ended contract for new hires (from March 7, 2015), which eliminates the possibility of a worker’s reinstatement after illegitimate dismissal for economic motives (the so-called “article 18”)  and embeds increasing monetary compensation in the case of separation. In this respect the Jobs Act marks a stark change with respect to the approach of flexibility at the margin (i.e., the tendency to liberalize the use of fixed-term contracts and leave open-ended contracts untouched by reforms) by reducing firing costs for permanent employment and by making them both predictable ex ante and increasing according to the worker’s tenure within the firm (two months for every month of tenure, starting from a minimum of four months and up to a maximum of 24 months). The Jobs Act is an example of “flexsecurity” in practice: it reduces dualism in the labor market and favors workers’ protection “in the market.”

Recently (in June 2018) the Constitutional Court declared illegitimate the rigid link between tenure and months of compensation in case of illegitimate firing, thus restoring the full discretion of judges in determining  the amount of compensation (this will make firing costs uncertain again and the hiring permanent workers less convenient).

Recently (in June 2018) the Constitutional Court declared illegitimate the rigid link between tenure and months of compensation in case of illegitimate firing, thus restoring the full discretion of judges in determining  the amount of compensation (this will make firing costs uncertain again and the hiring permanent workers less convenient).

Second, restrictions on self-employment arrangements (“co.co.co.,” “co.co.pro.,” etc.) used in the past to hire dependent workers while saving on both firing costs and social security contributions. In the three years during which the reforms were applied (2015–2018) we witnessed an increase in dependent employment and a decrease in the number of self-employed workers (from a record share of 25% of total employment): most of them took up a fixed-term contract but some of them transitioned to an open-ended contract, exploiting the very generous tax break for open-ended contracts activated in 2015 and 2016. Under the new government this trend has been reversed by a combination of three factors: the limits set by the new government on fixed-term contracts; the sentence of the Constitutional Court which has rendered dependent permanent employment contracts less convenient; and new tax breaks exclusively for the self-employed, which will soon cause the composition of employment to revert to a large share of self-employed.

Third, the reform of unemployment benefits, which have been extended both in terms of eligibility criteria and maximum coverage length, and the concurrent reduction of the short-time work compensation scheme that subsidizes employers that reduce hours of work during a temporary period of falling demand. The unemployment benefit reform aims to make benefits more generous and long-lasting and to include those with discontinuous or uneven employment histories. The reform of 2015 extended the benefits period to exactly half the number of weeks of contribution, up to 24 months. Employees can activate their individual right to a benefit if they have contributed for at least 13 weeks over the previous four years; this criterion has significantly relaxed the contributions requirement and has increased the number of potential beneficiaries to more than 95% of the employed population. The current government has not touched the benefits reform, but it has gone back to a generous regime of subsidies for firms that reduce hours of work. A generous short-time work scheme with loose rules on contributions risks keeping “zombie” firms alive for too long and keeping workers attached to them with little incentive to search for a new job.

Finally, fourth: Reform of active labor market policies, with the establishment of a national agency to coordinate the work of the regions (which have the competence over active labor market policies) and of a “re-training and placement voucher” (i.e., a voucher for placement services provided by both public and private operators), which introduces a quasi-market approach in active labor market policies. Unfortunately, the reform of active labor market policies never actually took off. The popular referendum, which should have moved the competence from the regions to the central state, failed, and the regions are jealous of their autonomy, with the result that the performance of the services is very patchy across Italy.

GLO: What are your recommendations for effective and successful labor reform policies?

Marco Leonardi:  Use your political capital fast on your priorities, compensate unpopular reforms with popular ones and spend money to make reforms effective.

First, when you win an election, you may want to use your political capital immediately on your priorities before it is depleted. I think that the absence of strikes during the reform of the labor market was due to the “surprise” effect. Unions were prudent and waited to see what a young new leader of the center-left would bring about. If you aim at important issues (such as removing article 18) you may hope the reforms will endure, but you should expect that the next government will at least want to change the names of things in order to get credit for them.

Second, compensate for unpopular reforms with popular ones. We compensated for firing cost reforms with more unemployment benefits and active labor market policies. Unfortunately, we did not do enough on active labor market policies and we got the timing wrong: active labor market policies should have come prior to firing cost reform, because first you offer the carrot and then the stick and because active labor market policies require a long implementation period and the interaction of various actors: public employment services, the regional governments and private employment agencies.

Third, spend money to make reforms effective. We accompanied the abolition of article 18 with two dedicated measures in the 2015 budget law: (a) a three-year tax break for social security contributions, and (b) a corporate tax (IRAP) cut on labor costs applicable only to permanent contracts. This meant creating a cost wedge between permanent and temporary contracts. Conventional wisdom has it that one of the best ways to make the former more appealing is to make it cheaper than the latter. A generous tax break made a difference by incentivizing the use of permanent contracts and encouraged the perception that the reform was working.

GLO: What is your advice for the current phase of anti-reform sentiments?

Marco Leonardi: There could be two reasons why people seem to be adverse to reforms in many countries. The first might be because the reforms did not work or because they did not work for all in the same way. To make reforms work we need to focus on implementation: you may do less, but what you do must affect people’s lives in a simple way. Politicians often forget that somebody must take care of all the details of the implementation. Let’s take the example of a new measure against poverty for which the beneficiaries must fill in a new request module. Somebody must follow all the administrative processes that bring the law into effect, from the first parliamentary draft up to the implementation of the software to request the new subsidy online. No law produces real effects until the moment it is “online,” and there are several steps that must be taken to achieve this, including the involvement of the many administrations that have to do with the measure at various steps. Very often the laws are ineffective because their implementation is flawed, and a policy unit’s job is to watch over the laws until their implementation is complete.

The second issue regards the distribution of benefits. Many reforms are perceived as targeted at a few people rather than at everyone. In our time, when information is available to everybody through many of the same channels (TV and social media), it is important to stress the redistributive characteristics of all policy measures. In our case, the reform of the labor market occurred concurrently with a significant increase in the number of employed people (probably in part due to the reform itself), and yet people perceived the precariousness of the new jobs that had been created rather than their number. We should have highlighted more the redistributive feature of the reform (more people having a chance to find a job) rather than merely the increase in the number of those employed.

GLO: Thank you very much. (Questions by Klaus F. Zimmermann)

Marco Leonardi & Klaus F. Zimmermann

Ends;

WageIndicator celebrates twenty years of activity: Congratulations to Director Pauline Osse and her global teams! Interview with Pauline Osse.

This year, the WageIndicator movement, Pauline Osse and the WageIndicator Foundation with all the teams in so many participating countries, can celebrate 20 years of successful activities around the globe. We take this opportunity to congratulate a great volunteer institution that has contributed to global transparency, understanding and well-being. We have asked the Director a few question about her organization and its work.

The Interview

Pauline Osse

Director Pauline Osse has been a journalist for all her life. She worked for various magazines, the Dutch trade union and as a freelancer before she created the WageIndicator movement.

Now, the WageIndicator Foundation is a global player producing an international trademark.

In 2017, Pauline Osse and her organization were supporters of the newly created Global Labor Organization (GLO) from the first hour.

GLO: To collect wage microdata through the internet was quite innovative two decades ago. What was the origin of your initiative?

The first trigger was the insight that working people everywhere lacked access to adequate wage information. This became clear to me back in 1999 when I set up the website for the Dutch trade unions. People wanted to know ‘what should I earn, what can I ask, what is the going market rate for someone like me, trucker, cleaning lady?’ And the unions could not give that information. What the Collective Agreement said, yes, maybe, but not the real wage the market would pay. For the real wages one needed large scale research. And nobody did this for a lower level then CEO’s.

The second trigger was a small benchmark tool available online at the time for the Dutch highly educated white male employee. But what about me, a working women? And what about all the other working women, taking care for our children, houses, family? Why only information for the rich and highly educated? What about vulnerable groups at the lower end of the labor market? And indeed, what about labor markets in poorer countries? Why wasn’t there such a benchmark tool for everyone?

So I got in touch with Kea Tijdens, a specialist in gender studies at the University of Amsterdam and we sat together. Kea is great at designing surveys and knows how to structure data sets and handle microdata. I knew a bit about the internet already. We put 2 and 2 together and came up with our first online survey. It was 2000, the internet was still young. But it worked. The data we collected was enough to build a salary check, reflecting the real wages for specific occupations. We put our salary check online as a benchmark on a dedicated website and promoted it. This worked too. Ever since we have been refining and extending the salary check, the occupations covered, and the number of national websites. After 20 years – and over 100 countries –  the salary check is still very much at the core of our activities.

GLO: You are about to become a truly global player. What brought the breakthrough and what are the major products?

We did not stop at collecting microdata on real wages and – later – cost of living. Our websites today have much more to offer than just microdata. We offer statutory minimum wages, we have living wages for countries and regions within, we have a full text – and coded Collective Agreement-database and sample Collective Agreements to draw on, we have built and keep extending a country specific labor law database with tailor-made information on social security and the like, now covering 100 countries. Every step, every extension has been a response to what our web visitors told us they needed. The pressing problems of people we met in the field while doing offline research were also key in directing our work.

Our work essentially is piecemeal engineering, really. So it is difficult to pinpoint breakthroughs. But, as I remember it, a few moments stand out. Take for instance our first extension abroad. In 2004 we rolled out national WageIndicator websites in 9 European countries. All had a salary check, our prime product. That first extension abroad may be called a breakthrough: our idea worked there too!

By then we had already decided that every next step, every extension should be designed and constructed in such a way that all data was internally consistent and compatible. Right from the start every tool we use has been of our own making to make sure that all data and all information we elaborate adds up and is internationally comparable. All data is coded, all clauses are annotated. As a result of this early decision, today, as we speak, we run similar operations in over 100 countries. And we hope to serve people in 150 countries in 2020.

I also remember vividly Paraguay 2006. We met trade union members there, very poor people, and explained what we were doing. Their reaction was: what is this talk about minimum wage, maximum wage. The maximum here is the minimum wage, if we get it at all. And we don’t even know what the minimum is! If there ever was an eye opener, it was this one. So we started our collection of minimum wages and we started it in India, with its highly complex patchwork of minimum wages. Today, as a result, we offer the largest minimum wage database in the world within easy reach of everyone, anywhere, including Paraguay. On average each month 50,000 people consult our website there: in Paraguay alone! And a majority visit the minimum wage page first.

Around 2010 it became clear that living wage data was in great demand too. But how to come by living wages? What is a living wage? I thought that the best reference would have been the wages from Collective Agreements. If anything, that wage level should be enough to guarantee a decent living. If one supposed that the legal minimum wage was too low, then one might use the Collective Agreement-wages as a benchmark to eventually arrive at living wages. We should therefore offer a simple negotiating tool, based on existing Collective Agreements. This internal discussion resulted in two databases that we added to our salary check, minimum wages and labor law database: a living wage concept of our own design and a Collective Agreement-database from which we derive sample Collective Agreements.

Which brings me to our Decent Work Check. It is based on labor law and has been inspired by people’s pressing needs. During 2007 and 2008 in a dozen or so countries in Latin America, East and West Africa we organized fact finding sessions in remote rural areas. In order to structure the debate we handed out a small questionnaire. It took participants a few minutes to fill out by ticking multiple choice boxes. The answers added up to a score. This score told them right away where they stood in terms of compliance with working conditions as in their national labor law. Ten years later this tried and tested tool has been used to create a factory-level survey for both Indonesia and Ethiopia, where it has been applied to conduct face-to-face interviews with workers and hr-staff in the garment sector. After consultation with factory owners the compliance-with-the-law-results are published as factory pages on our national websites in those two countries. The factory pages are seen as so called Worker Driven Social Responsibility.  

GLO: Nowadays, WageIndicator is a trademark. But it is not protected, so how do you survive?

Well, I don’t know about the trademark, I couldn’t tell. But in Holland, after 20 years, we surely are a household-name. And we know that our data is widely drawn upon and used by policy makers, many small employers, multinationals, journalists and academics. Even after 20 years, we stick to our policy of putting all our data online as soon as we have double checked that it is accurate, factual and up to date. We just have to offer more than others, be faster, better and transparent.

We always try to come up with creative answers to people’s questions, even like: if you can do this, can you also do that? Such questions also come from governments and multinationals, but these don’t pay always. They simply assume that the data we publish is for free, since it is published. Doing projects together is one way to raise income. Selling data another.

GLO: Your venture has limited funds. So one does not get rich working for WageIndicator. How do you keep the spirit alive?

We want our data to reach as many people as possible. We are motivated by the urge to liberate the ordinary working women and men through empowerment by providing them with clear cut information that helps them in taking their own decisions. To never take no for an answer. So that they no longer depend on their parents, the trade union, the government or any other authority to tell them what is possible and what not.

This questioning reflex surely comes from journalism, my trade. Why don’t workers automatically get the information from the Collective Agreements concluded on their behalf, why do we have to unearth legal minimum wage information and decipher labor law? Why is is not made accessible in understandable language in the first place? This information belongs to the people, by definition. It is unfair to keep it from them. The way we present it makes them say: ah, now I understand what is in the law for me, finally. And: I feel respected, thank you for that. This certainly motivates our team.

We are an internet-based micro multinational. Our team spirit is highly entrepreneurial. We are builders. The gender angle that has been with us from the beginning is reflected in the composition of our global team. Most have children. We make our own creative flow. If we have the money, we invest in improvement and extension. If we have less money we continue building and updating anyhow. You can also look at us as a family enterprise. Even when some cherished team members leave us, because of an attractive job offer elsewhere, they keep in touch with the family, and continue with us by offering coaching and mentorship for free, for ever. They stay with us in the same spirit. We are all about diversity and inclusion. And the fact that in our daily work we do something meaningful to liberate simple working people by giving them the information they need, is a binding force as well.

GLO: What next innovations may we expect?

Perfect websites, perfect databases in 150 countries, many countries with good Collective Agreement databases, factory pages giving overviews of compliance with the labor law. And a platform with social protection tools for the platform workers.

The interview partner from GLO has been Klaus F. Zimmermann.

Share and Compare Wages, Labor Laws and Career

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The cold Brexit is most likely to come: What does it mean for the rest of Europe? Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann of GLO analyze the situation.

Stability in a dramatic phase of instability: Theresa May remains Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote the day after she has experienced “the largest defeat for a sitting government in history” on her Brexit deal with the EU in the British Parliament on Tuesday night (January 15, 2019). The country is deeply divided, the political system looks like a lame duck. What are the consequences for continental Europe?

Some people argue that the Brexit situation and the uncertainty will also harm the countries on the European continent. But there are also chances to develop Europe better. Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann have written broadly on European integration and the role of migration. Next to many scientific contributions and policy studies, they have also written some books together on the topic. Their views on the situation are below.

A recent survey among 1,693 adults in the UK has investigated the options for the situation after a rejection of May’s Brexit deal. The “no-deal”, cold Brexit is expected by 35%, while a “second referendum” ranks only third with 21% behind 23% for “don’t know”.

Martin Kahanec is a Professor and Head of the School of Public Policy at the Central European University in Budapest. He is Founder and Scientific Director of CELSI, Bratislava, a Chairperson of the Slovak Economic Association and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Klaus F. Zimmermann is Professor Emeritus of Bonn University, Honorary Professor of Maastricht University, the Free University of Berlin and Renmin University of China, Beijing. He is Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, and President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

The Views

GLO: Are you surprised about the large rejection of the Brexit deal?

Martin Kahanec: The landslide is perhaps a bit surprising, but there are several well-defined groups who had every reason to vote against the Brexit deal. One group are those, mainly from the Labor camp, who oppose May, or saw a “nay” as the only way to have a second referendum, or both. Among those who wish for a second referendum are probably a good number of conservatives, too. The other group is composed of those, primarily conservatives, who consider it a bad deal, not protecting the UK’s interests adequately. And then there is the DUP, who oppose the Northern Ireland backstop. It is hard to imagine a deal that would be accepted by some majority in the House of Commons and by the 27 EU member states as well, and with May investing very little in cross-party consensus building, the “nay” result was to be expected.

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Yes, this is kind of a Kamikaze behavior, untypical for a Parliament at fairly normal times. It has been know that the British MPs are quite critical about the EU, and the UK was never a friend of a political union in Europe. An acceptance of the May deal with the EU would have finalized the move out on March 29, at least on paper. Once out, one could have acted more radical. Now those responsible have to fear that the potentially large damage of a cold Brexit generates a stronger desire for a second referendum.

GLO: What do you expect to happen now, general elections, a new referendum, a cold Brexit, or else?

Martin Kahanec: I have no crystal ball. I hope for a new referendum, resulting in the UK remaining in the EU. With Corbyn as a staunch Brexiter at the helm of Labor, one important question is what is needed for him to reflect on the preferences of the majority of his party’s constituency, and turn Labor determinedly in favor of Remain. Whereas postponing Brexit by several months can give some time for what I see as forces of reason to take their effects, I am also afraid that a prolonged agony may further deepen the cleavages and sharpen the tensions in the British society, furthering its polarization, and leaving little space for consensus building. But a cross-party consensus, and strong leadership of the Speaker of the House, are very much needed to avoid a crash-Brexit and explore the options for a new deal or a second, possibly binding referendum.

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Now Theresa May wants to speak with all sides among the MPs. This seems a bit too late. Everybody in the Parliament fears general elections, not even the labor party can be sure to win in such a divided situation. The country is split in two nearly equal blocks with opposite positions. It is not even obvious that a second referendum will bring a strong majority for one side. Hence, my best guess is that the outcome is a cold Brexit. However, I think that this would be really a big problem. With such an important decision with very long-term consequences for the well – being of the people it is not a shame to think twice and to correct a mistake.

GLO: What are the consequences for Europe?

Martin Kahanec: On the one hand, the rejection of the deal is a lifeline for Remain hopes. On the other hand, the ultimate outcome is as unclear as ever. This uncertainty is very unhelpful for the European economy. If the UK leaves the EU, the economic consequences for the EU (and even more so for the UK) will be very much on the negative side. In particular, it will be a major challenge for the eastern member states of the EU. Hundreds of thousands of eastern Europeans work in the UK. Some of them will consider returning to their home countries. As they are primarily young, and have acquired many hard and soft skills in the UK, their return would help the labor markets and public budgets back home. However, they would likely be less productive in their home countries than in the UK, and so their incomes would go down. This and the reduced interstate mobility would also decrease productivity in Europe and hurt its capacity to absorb economic shocks. An abrupt return of large numbers of workers to the sending countries could exceed the capacity of their labor markets, social security and health care systems, and social services to absorb them, creating temporary congestion and resulting in tensions between returnees and their compatriots. The UK will also be hurt: it will lose many thousands of skilled, hard working men and women and talented students from eastern Europe. The UK is also a major trading partner and source of investment for the eastern member states. Brexit would significantly reduce the gains from that trade and investment for both parties.

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Never waste a crisis! Europe has better things to do, but forced to adjust there are two potentials: First, in the likely case of a cold Brexit, the damage for the UK will be substantial, and also the remaining EU will suffer. At least Scotland will try to leave the UK and seek to join the EU. This will signal to the 27 member states that it does not pay to leave. Further, it increases the incentives to develop the EU stronger and faster, in particular since the UK was always hesitant about a stronger political and economic integration and can no longer object. Second, if a cold Brexit does not happen because the British MPs fear the consequences, another referendum is likely. It can lead to a “Remain” and start a cultural change in the UK, where the British people better understand the benefits of the larger European Union. The EU could then be more dynamic than it otherwise would have been.

A recent survey among 1,693 adults in the UK has investigated the options for the situation after a rejection of May’s Brexit deal. The “no-deal”, cold Brexit is expected by 35%, while a “second referendum” ranks only third with 21% behind 23% for “don’t know”.

Reference Link.

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Announcement: 28th EBES Conference in Coventry (UK) in May 29-31, 2019

28th EBES Conference. May 29-31, 2019 in Coventry, United Kingdom
Hosted by the Centre for Financial and Corporate Integrity (CFCI), Coventry University

Interested researchers are cordially invited to submit abstracts or papers for presentation consideration at the 28th EBES Conference in Coventry. It will take place on May 29th, 30th, and 31st, 2019 at Coventry University in Coventry, United Kingdom. The conference will be organized with the support of the Istanbul Economic Research Association and will be hosted by the Centre for Financial and Corporate Integrity (CFCI) in collaboration with the Coventry Business School Trading Floor.

To support the event, the Global Labor Organization (GLO) will organize three invited paper sessions. If you are a GLO Fellow or Affiliate and interested to be be included, please submit the title of a potential contribution to office@glabor.org until February 20, 2019.

Invited Speakers are David B. Audretsch, Marco Vivarelli and  Klaus F. Zimmermann.

David B. Audretsch is a Distinguished Professor at Indiana University, where he also serves as Director of the Institute for Development Strategies. He is an Honorary Professor of Industrial Economics and Entrepreneurship at the WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Management in Germany and a Research Fellow of the CEPR in London. He has also worked as a consultant to the UN, World Bank, OECD, EU Commission, and U.S. Federal Trade Commission. Prof. Audretsch’s research has focused on the links between entrepreneurship, government policy, innovation, economic development, and global competitiveness. He is co-author of The Seven Secrets of Germany (Oxford University Press) along with several other books. He is co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Small Business Economics: An Entrepreneurship Journal and many other journals. He was awarded the Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research by the Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum (Entreprenörskapsforum). He has received honorary doctorate degrees from the University of Augsburg in Germany and Jonköping University in Sweden. Prof. Audretsch was also awarded the Schumpeter Prize from the University of Wuppertal in Germany. He has served as an advisory board member to a number of international research and policy institutes, including Chair of the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin(German Institute for Economic Analysis Berlin), Chair of the Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft (Foundation for the Promotion of German Science) in Berlin, Germany, and the Center for European Economic Research (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) in Mannheim, Germany etc. He has authored numerous papers which were published in prestigious journals such as American Economic Review, European Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of Management and his researches have been cited more than 77,000 (Google Scholar). He holds a PhD in economics from University of Wisconsin, Madison in U.S.A.

Marco Vivarelli, Ph.D. in Economics and Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy, is full professor at the Catholic University of Milano, where he is also Director of the Institute of Economic Policy. He is Professorial Fellow at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht; Research Fellow at IZA, Bonn; Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). He is member of the Scientific Executive Board of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES, Istanbul); member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO, Vienna) and has been scientific consultant for the International Labour Office (ILO), World Bank (WB), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the European Commission. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Business Review, Editor of Small Business Economics, Associate Editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, Associate Editor of Economics E-Journal, member of the Editorial Board of Sustainability and he has served as referee for more than 70 international journals. He is author/editor of various books and his papers have been published in journals such as Cambridge Journal of Economics,  Canadian Journal of Economics, Economics Letters, Industrial and Corporate Change, International Journal of Industrial Organization,  Journal of Economics, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Labour Economics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Regional Studies, Research Policy, Small Business Economics, Southern Economic Journal, World Bank Research Observer, World Development. His current research interests include the relationship between innovation, employment and skills; the labor market and income distribution impacts of globalization; the entry and post-entry performance of newborn firms.

Abstract/Paper Submission: Authors are invited to submit their abstracts or papers no later than February 28, 2018. For submission, please visit the EBES website at https://www.ebesweb.org/Conferences/28th-EBES-Conference-Coventry/Abstract-Submission.aspx. No submission fee is required. General inquiries regarding the call for papers should be directed to ebes@ebesweb.org.

Publication Opportunities: Qualified papers can be published (after refereeing) in the EBES journals (no submission and publication fees). EBES journals (Eurasian Business Review and Eurasian Economic Review) are published by Springer Nature and indexed by SCOPUS, EBSCO EconLit with Full Text, Google Scholar, ABI/INFORM, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, CNKI, EBSCO Business Source, EBSCO Discovery Service, EBSCO TOC Premier, Emerging Sources Citation Index (Clarivate Analytics), International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), OCLC, ProQuest Business Premium Collection, ProQuest Central, ProQuest Turkey Database, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Summon by ProQuest, Cabell’s Directory, and Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory.

Furthermore, qualified papers after review will be recommended to be considered for publication in regular issues of the Journal of Corporate Finance after a review process. However, presentation at the EBES Conference does not guarantee publication in the Journal of Corporate Finance.

Also all accepted abstracts will be published electronically in the Conference Program and the Abstract Book (with an ISBN number). It will be distributed to all conference participants at the conference via USB. Although submitting full papers are not required, all the submitted full papers will also be included in the conference proceedings in the USB. After the conference, participants will also have the opportunity to send their paper to be published in the Springer’s series Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics (no submission and publication fees).

This will also be sent to Clarivate Analytics in order to be reviewed for coverage in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Please note that the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 19th EBES Conference Proceedings were accepted for inclusion in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). 18th, 20th and subsequent conference proceedings are in progress.

Important Dates
Abstract Submission Deadline: February 28, 2019
Decision Communicated by: March 8, 2019*
Registration Deadline: April 19, 2019
Announcement of the Program: April 30, 2019
Paper Submission Deadline (Optional): April 19, 2019**
Paper Submission for the EBES journals: July 31, 2019
* The decision regarding the acceptance/rejection of each abstract/paper will be communicated with the corresponding author within a week of submission.
** Full paper submission is optional. If you want to be considered for the Best Paper Award or your full paper to be included in the conference proceedings in the USB, after submitting your abstract before February 28, 2018, you must also submit your completed (full) paper by April 19, 2019.

Contact: Ugur Can (ebes@ebesweb.org); Dr. Ender Demir (demir@ebesweb.org)

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Inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Call for papers for a conference in Brasov/Romania

The Faculty of Economic Sciences and Business Administration within Transilvania University of Brasov, in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy cordially invites you to submit research papers for presentation and discussions at the third edition of the International Conference „Inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Challenges, measures and solutions” (ISEG 2019). The 2019 event is supported by the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

The conference will be hosted by Transilvania University of Brasov and will be held 31 May-1 June 2019 in the Transilvania University Hall, Street Iuliu Maniu no. 47A, Brasov.

The keynote speakers of the 2019 ISEG conference are:

Klaus F. Zimmermann, President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO); Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT; Full Professor of Economics at Bonn University; Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Free University of Berlin and Renmin University of China, Beijing.

Filomena Maggino, Full Professor at Sapienza University of Rome; Editor-in-Chief of Social Indicators Research (Springer); Counsellor – Prime Minister Office – Italian Government (Conte’s cabinet); Editor-in-Chief of Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-being Research; Past-President of the International Society for Quality Of Life Studies; President of the Italian Association for Quality of Life Studies.

The meeting will be an excellent opportunity for academics, researchers and doctoral students to present new research results and to discuss challenging issues on the topics of conference. The aim of this new series of conferences is to gather research interests and to stimulate collaborative research around actual macro- and microeconomic topics (as suggested below).

Topics:

We are inviting submissions of both empirical and theoretical work that fits into the conference topics. Being a multi- and interdisciplinary conference, we encourage submission of papers in the following broad research areas: economics, finance, marketing and management. Examples of suitable topics:

  • Economic growth and convergence perspectives in the European Union: Measurement methods and new empirical evidence
  • Public and Private Finance Sustainability in the Context of Current Economic Challenges
  • Issues and challenges in the Romanian higher education
  • Challenges and prospects of economic growth in South Eastern Europe
  • New inequalities, multidimensionality and growth pro-poorness
  • Business for sustainable development
  • New approaches in marketing and management

Submission

Deadline for abstract submission is 1st of March, 2019, and for full paper submission is May 15th, 2019. Authors of accepted abstracts will be informed by the 1st of April, 2019.

Please submit your abstracts and full papers through the conference website!

Publication opportunities

All papers must be written and presented in English. A blind review process apply to all submissions. During the conference, one discussant will be assigned to each paper.

Accepted papers will be included in the conference proceedings volume, which will be sent for being indexed by ISI Proceedings volume (CPCI – Conference Proceedings Citation Index) under Clarivate Analytics (or former Thomson Reuters).

Selected papers from the conference may be subsequently published in one of the following journals, subject to the agreement and decision of editors:

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting

Journal of Smart Economic Growth

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov

Registration

The conference fee is 100 euro for each paper. The conference fee must be paid until the 26th of April by bank transfer, according to the indications which will be posted on the conference website. The fee covers the book of abstracts, the attendance certificate, as well as the access to all conference sessions, coffee breaks, lunch and festive dinner.

Best paper award

The “Best Paper Award” is granted to the best paper in the conference. Junior researchers are particularly encouraged to submit papers.

Updated information about the conference program, the organizing and scientific committees, and other related information will be posted on the conference website: http://unitbv.ro/iseg/

For any information related to the conference, please contact us: monica.szeles@unitbv.ro

#Brexit deal rejected by 230 votes – “the largest defeat for a sitting government in history” (BBC). First evaluations of top economists.

With a majority of 230 votes, the British Parliament has rejected the Brexit deal of Theresa May with the EU late evening of Tuesday (January 15, 2019). This has been called by BBC as “the largest defeat for a sitting government in history”. This has caused two-sided hopes; while some now expect a hard Brexit without a transition phase, others still push for a second referendum to reverse the Brexit vote.

Most scientific observers of the ongoing spectacle over the last years typically see the facts different than the critics of the European Union and the migration flows, namely largely positive. They expect huge damage for the UK as for Europe in general. Such damage is already visible, although often ignored.

Immediately after the decison, GLO has contacted some of its prominent GLO Fellows, who have done serious research on the Brexit situation, including Nauro Campos and
Jonathan Portes.

Nauro Campos, Professor of Economics at Brunel University London, Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Research Professor at ETH-Zürich, is a also the Editor of the influential research journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Jonathan Portes is Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe, King’s College, London, and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

The Interview

GLO: Are you surprised about the large rejection of the Brexit deal?

Nauro Campos: The most surprising thing in UK politics this week is how everything (so far) has occurred as predicted. Before the vote, there was certainty about the defeat but questions about its extent. At the lower-end, the estimated margin was about 160 votes (which would already make it a “historic defeat.”) SkyNews I believe held the upper-end with a defeat by about 225 votes. Thus 230 votes would be shocking only to those that don’t follow the debate closely (and it has been such a repetitive, shallow and infuriating debate that there are indeed many good reasons not to follow it.)

Jonathan Portes:  Yes. Few expected quite such a heavy defeat – more than half of Conservative backbenchers rejected it as did almost the entire Parliamentary Labour Party. But the key is that while there was a huge majority against the deal, there is no majority for any particular alternative. Most Conservatives who voted against did so because they prefer No Deal, or think the EU27 will agree under the threat of No Deal to remove the so-called backstop. But most Labour MPs voted against because they want a permanent customs union, Single Market membership, or to remain in the EU. 

GLO: What do you expect to happen now, general elections, a new referendum, a cold Brexit, or else?

Jonathan Portes: Nobody knows.  The vote clearly increases the probability of No Deal –  it also increases the probability of a second referendum.  The key is whether the majority in Parliament that rejects No Deal will be able to decide on a single way forward, whether that’s Single Market membership/the “Norway option” or a second referendum.  And that will depend on whether enough Conservative MPs are prepared to defy the strong views of their own membership and the obstinacy of Theresa May, who so far has proved entirely unwilling to seek a cross-party compromise.

Nauro Campos: I am writing this less than two hours after the result from the vote so, if
predictability will rule this week in Westminster (for a change), than the prime minister will win the vote of no confidence tomorrow closing down a main avenue for a general election. Immediately after voting down the piece of legislation that gives May’s government the reason to be, the DUP (and one should soon expect the rest of the Conservative rebels to come along) said that tomorrow they will show themselves confident, instead. Clearly, it doesn’t matter confident in what. This is the stuff of populism and has been so for the last three years. A hard Brexit seems less likely this week but which of the other options may prevail (second referendum, revocation or extension of A50) should be easier to gauge this time on Monday (after the Prime Minister goes back to parliament with details of her proposed Plan B.)

GLO: What are the consequences for Europe?

Nauro Campos: I guess Europe will continue to do what it has been doing in the last few months regarding Brexit, namely, (1) to wait for Westminster to come to terms with the agreements it signed in December 2017 at the end of phase 1 of the negotiations and (2) continue to prepare for the worse case scenario (a no deal) but confidently showing that it is much better prepared for it than the UK currently is.

Jonathan Portes: The EU27 can do little except wait for the UK to sort itself out. There is little point in making minor changes to the deal on the table when the UK is so divided. We simply are not currently in a position to negotiate in a credible way. The sensible thing for the EU to do is to continue to prepare for No Deal, while being prepared to response positively when the UK  – perhaps under a different Prime Minister or government – actually demonstrates that there is a Parliamentary majority for a specific way forward, particularly if it involves extending Article 50 to allow a second referendum, a general election, or some other process.

GLO: Gentlemen, thank you very much! And good night.

Note: GLO here is Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and President of the Global Labor Organization.

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The Eurasian Economic Review (EAER) seeks to attract high quality research papers in macro labor and on the interrelationships between financial and labor markets

As of January 2019, the Eurasian Economic Review (EAER) has a new Editor-in-Chief, Dorothea Schäfer. EAER is one of the flagship journals of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES), which partners with the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Under the leadership of Schäfer, the EAER, while focusing on macro analysis and financial markets, also seeks to attract high quality research papers in macro labor and on the interrelationships between financial and labor markets. Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO) spoke with Schäfer about her plans.

GLO: In your new role as Editor-in-Chief, where do you see the focus of the EAER under your leadership?

Dorothea Schäfer: The focus of EAER will be on financial markets and applied macro research. The journal has a broad scope in both focus areas. Finance topics may address such issues as financial systems and regulation, corporate and start-up finance, macro and sustainable finance, finance and innovations, consumer finance, public policies within local, regional, national and international contexts towards financial markets, money and banking and the interface of labor and financial economics. Macro economic research includes topics from monetary economics, labor economics, international economics and development economics, preferably but not exclusively, with a link to finance. Typically, the articles published in EAER highlight the economic, political and societal relevance of research results.

GLO: The challenges for the well-being of the world are not smaller today, than after the Great Recession. What can a journal like the EAER contribute to deal with those challenges?

Dorothea Schäfer: Asian countries were exposed to a deep financial crisis 10 years before the Lehman insolvency and had a long way to go before they recovered. Severe deficiencies in financial markets and financial regulations triggered the Lehman failure and the subsequent Great Recession.  Many countries have still not fully recovered and new macro risks from trade wars, Brexit and a general loss of trust have evolved. Financial markets are part of those problems, but will also be part of the solutions. Therefore, understanding financial markets is of ever increasing importance for the well-being of the world. The EAER aims to support building the crucial knowledge by publishing rigorous, high-quality research.

GLO: What kind of papers do you wish to attract for EAER from researcher dealing with human resources issues?

Dorothea Schäfer: Papers dealing with the interaction between labor and financial markets are particularly welcome. But since the Journal has a macro focus in addition to finance articles on labor market issues in general are of interest for the journal.

Short Bio

Dorothea Schäfer, Dr. in Economics and habilitation in Business Economics, Research Director Financial Markets at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Adjunct Professor of Jönköping International Business School, Jönköping University (Sweden); Research Fellow of the Center for Relationship Banking and Economics CERBE, Roma, Italy. She is the Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Economics Review and a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Dorothea Schäfer

Head of various research projects, inter alia, funded by the Leibniz Research Alliance Crises in a Globalised World, the Research Foundation of the German Savings banks, German Science Foundation, the EU Commission, the Fritz Thyssen Stiftung and the Stiftung Geld und Währung; Evaluator/reviewer of research programs/proposals for the German Science Foundation (DFG), EU Commission (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the LOEWE (Initiative for the Development of Scientific and Economic Excellence, State of Hesse).

She has published in Finance Research Letters, European Journal of Finance, Small Business Economics, Journal of Financial Stability, International Journal of Money and Finance, German Economic Review, Economics of Transition, the Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics and many other journals. Schäfer gave expert testimonies for the Commission to Review the Financing for the phase-out of nuclear energy in 2015, for the Finance Committee of the German Parliament (Deutsche Bundestag) (2010, 2011, 2012, 2018) and for the Committee on Social Affairs, Health and Sustainable Development, Parliamentary Assembly, The Council of Europe (2012). In 2012, she was also advisor to the Sub-Committee “Policy for a Sustainable Political and Economic Governance” (Nachhaltige Ordnungspolitik) of the Enquete Committee of the German Parliament, “Growth – Prosperity – Quality of Life” (Wachstum Wohlstand Lebensqualität).

In 2001 Schäfer and her co-author Franz Hubert received the Best Paper Award of the German Finance Association and 2002 the Best Paper Award of DIW Berlin. Main research interests are: financial and banking markets, systems and regulation, financial crisis, financial constraints, start-up finance and innovation, finance and labor, sovereign debt and Euro Area, gender and financial markets, household finance, green finance, crowd financing.  Schäfer ranks in the European Union among the top 6% of researcher according to the RePEc ranking analysis in January 2019.

Immigration restrictions lead to cultural separation across generations!

Issue 2019/1 of the Journal of Population Economics is published: Please see for the Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The article in the new issue

Immigration restrictions and second-generation cultural assimilation: theory and quasi-experimental evidence

By Fausto Galli, Giuseppe Russo; pp. 23-51

Abstract

“We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the cultural assimilation of second-generation migrants. In our theoretical model, when mobility is free, individuals with a stronger taste for their native culture migrate temporarily. When immigration is restricted, however, these individuals are incentivized to relocate permanently. Permanent emigrants procreate in the destination country and convey their cultural traits to the second generation, who will therefore find assimilation harder. We test this prediction by using the 1973 immigration ban in Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a quasi-experiment. Since the ban only concerned immigrants from countries outside the European Economic Community, they act as a treatment group. According to our estimates, the Anwerbestopp has reduced the cultural assimilation of the second generation. This result demonstrated robustness to several checks. We conclude that restrictive immigration policies may have the unintended consequence of delaying the intergenerational process of cultural assimilation. “

Read further open access for a short period:

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Kuznets Prize Winner 2019.
The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.

Ends;

Migration fosters economic adjustment after shocks. European flexibility has increased.

Issue 2019/1 of the Journal of Population Economics is published: Please see for the Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Authors: Julia Jauer, Thomas Liebig, John P. Martin, Patrick A. Puhani

Abstract

” We estimate whether migration can be an equilibrating force in the labour market by comparing pre- and post-crisis migration movements at the regional level in both Europe and the United States, and their association with asymmetric labour market shocks. Based on fixed-effects regressions using regional panel data, we find that Europe’s migratory response to unemployment shocks was almost identical to that recorded in the United States after the crisis. Our estimates suggest that, if all measured population changes in Europe were due to migration for employment purposes—i.e. an upper-bound estimate—up to about a quarter of the asymmetric labour market shock would be absorbed by migration within a year. However, in Europe and especially in the Eurozone, the reaction to a very large extent stems from migration of recent EU accession country citizens as well as of third-country nationals.”

Read also open access for a short period:

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Kuznets Prize Winner 2019.
The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.

Ends;

Research on Africa shows: A rise in the disease risk increases fertility: Interview with Professor Yoo-Mi Chin

The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics was announced and given at the #ASSA2019 meeting in Atlanta. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications. In every year, the Prize is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. List of Kuznets Prize winners.

The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Yoo-Mi Chin

Interview with Author Yoo-Mi Chin, Professor of Economics at Baylor University

GLO: Is a rise of fertility after a disaster not the expected proper Malthusian response?

Yoo-Mi Chin: It is ambiguous whether we can clearly expect a Malthusian response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. It is true that population might recover from a positive check like diseases by increasing fertility. But after all, HIV is a sexually transmitted disease, and proliferation of HIV may lower fertility by inducing the use of contraception for safe sex. Further, HIV takes a heavy toll on working age adults. Like we see in the case of Black Death, as large-scale mortality causes labor shortages and subsequent higher wages, more women participate in labor market, which would lead to lower fertility. On the other hand, it is also possible that higher wages generate an income effect on the number of children. A lower life expectancy may increase fertility through lower returns to education and the child quantity-quality trade-off. Given such theoretical ambiguity, we find that an empirical examination of the issue is warranted.

GLO: How is fertility affected by a rise in the disease risk?

Yoo-Mi Chin: We find that a doubling of HIV prevalence increased total fertility rate by approximately 1.37 births and increased surviving children by approximately 0.38 children, using distance to the origin of the pandemic as an instrument for HIV prevalence. Although HIV/AIDS likely has increased child mortality, our findings suggest that the increase in births exceeded the increase in child mortality.

GLO: What are the policy implications?

Yoo-Mi Chin: The rise of the HIV/AIDS pandemic appears to have increased total fertility and the number of surviving children. Although the net effect of the pandemic on GDP per capita needs to be more thoroughly examined in future research, the increases in total fertility and the number of surviving children coupled with high mortality of working age adults could potentially lead to increases in dependency ratios and decreases in GDP per capita. Our results suggest that positive externalities generated by HIV prevention efforts might be larger than previously thought in that they contribute not only to reductions in HIV prevalence but also to reductions in total fertility, which could potentially enhance future welfare. Therefore, more resources for HIV prevention efforts are warranted.

The Story

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

The Author

Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.

YOO-Mi Chin and Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann during the award ceremony in Atlanta

2019 Journal of Population Economics: Issues

Issue 2019/1: Is already out! Please see Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Issue 2019/2: Will be out in a few weeks. See forthcoming announcements.

Ends;

New GLO Research Cluster & Further Country Lead

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) announces a new Research Cluster on Development, Health, Inequality and Behavior and a new Country Lead for Switzerland.

The GLO Research Cluster Lead for Development, Health, Inequality and Behavior is  Kompal Sinha. She is a Senior Lecturer and HDR Director at the Department of Economics of Macquarie University, Australia. Sinha is also an Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics. Her research deals with economic effects of consumer behavior, particularly in the area of health economics and development economics and the impacts on the design of economic policy.

Rainer Winkelmann is the GLO Country Lead Switzerland. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. He is a prominent researcher in the areas of count data econometrics and the economics of wellbeing. His research paper “Why Are the Unemployed So Unhappy?” (with Liliana Winkelmann) has received nearly 1,900 Google cites; his textbook Econometric analysis of count data many more than 1,500 Google cites. He also joins the Editorial Board of the Journal of Population Economics as an Associate Editor.

Ends;

Editorial Staff News for the Journal of Population Economics: Shuaizhang Feng, Kompal Sinha & Madeline Zavodny join the team. Issue 1/2019 out.

There are some changes in the editorial staff of the Journal of Population Economics. As of January 2019, Madeline Zavodny moved from the position of Associate Editor to Managing Editor joining Michaella Vanore in this role. Last summer, Oded Galor had changed roles from Associate Editor to Editor. The two free positions of Associate Editors are now filled by Shuaizhang Feng of Jinan University and Kompal Sinha of Macquarie University. All those are also GLO Fellows.

Madeline Zavodny is a Professor of Economics at the University of North Florida. Her research concentrates on economic issues related to immigration and the economic and demographic effects of immigration policies. She is a member of the editorial board of the International Migration Review and has served as co-editor of the Southern Economic Journal and a board member of the American Economic Association’s Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession. She received a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.A. in economics from Claremont McKenna College. She has frequently published in journals like the American Economic Review, Demography, Journal of Labor Economics, Health Economics, Journal of Health Economics, International Migration Review, Journal of Population Economics and Journal of Development Economics. See her personal website for further information.

Shuaizhang Feng is a Professor of Economics, and the Dean of the Institute of Economic and Social Research at the Jinan University. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from Cornell University. Before, he was a Professor at the School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His research interest is focused on labor economics and the Chinese economy, including issues relating to human capital, income inequality, migration and the labor market. He has frequently published in journals like the American Economic Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of Population Economics

Kompal Sinha is a Senior Lecturer and HDR Director at the Department of Economics of Macquarie University. She has worked before at the Center for Health Economics, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and Department of Economics at Monash University. She has received her Ph.D. from the Australian National University. Her research deals with economic effects of consumer behavior, particularly in the area of health economics and development economics and the impacts on the design of economic policy. She has frequently published in journals like Health Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, American Journal for Agricultural Economics, Social Science and Medicine, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Review of Income and Wealth and Journal of Biosocial Sciences.

2019 Journal Issues

Issue 2019/1: Is already out! Please see Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Issue 2019/2: Will be out in a few weeks. See forthcoming announcements.

Ends;

Kuznets Prize of the Journal of Population Economics given at the #ASSA2019 Reception of IESR in Atlanta.

The awarded study receiving the Kuznets Prize shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.

The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics in a particular year is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. Then the winners will be presented in a prize ceremony. This time, the winners remained confidential until January 4, 2019. The prize committee for the 2019 award consisted out of Alessandro Cigno, Erdal Tekin, Junsen Zhang and Klaus F. Zimmermann selecting from the 2018 published articles they were in charge of as acting Editors.

Dean Shuaizhang Feng, Head of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) of Jinan University, had invited the members of the Global Labor Organizations (GLO) and the Kuznets Prize Ceremony of the Journal of Population Economics as other ASSA 2019 participants to join the reception of the Institute. IESR and GLO are collaborating organizations, and Shuaizhang Feng is a GLO Fellow and Associate Editor of the Journal.

GLO President Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal had visited Jinan University and IESR in March 2018 for a longer period and a GLO-IESR workshop. He had also presented the Journal in 2018 to various academic events in Beijing, Xiamen and Hongkong to strengthen the already strong contacts to the Chinese research community. A larger number of economists participated, including many Editorial Board Members of the Journal of Population Economics and Kuznets Prize winners of previous years.

Shuaizhang Feng reported about the activities of IESR and the hiring interviews at the ASSA job market and explained the attractive research climate at the Institute. He also warmly welcomed the affiliates of GLO and the Journal of Population Economics. Klaus F. Zimmermann congratulated Feng for the successful development of IESR and the strong research climate and the attractive working conditions he had observed while visiting the Institute in 2018 and met with the very many strong and ambitious researchers.

Zimmermann also welcomed the 2018 Kuznets Prize Winner, Le Wang (University of Oklahoma), who received the award together with Chunbei Wang (University of Oklahoma) for their article:

Knot yet: Minimum marriage age law, marriage delay, and earnings, Journal of Population Economics (2017), 30(3), pp. 771-804.

Both authors had studied and graduated at Jinan University before they came to the United States. Le Wang expressed his gratitude for receiving the Kuznets Prize and explained how it created visibility for his work.

Then the 2019 Kuznets Prize paper was announced. Studying the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries, it suggests that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.

Nicholas Wilson is a Fellow with the Office of Evaluation Sciences, an Associate Professor of Economics at Reed College and the Chair of the Department of Economics. He is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). His research focuses on fundamental puzzles about human behavior in the context of health, development, and behavioral economics. Prior to joining Reed College, he was a Visiting Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley and an Assistant Professor of Economics at Williams College. He has published a larger number of papers in journals including the American Economic Review, Demography, Economics & Human Biology, Journal of Development Economics and Journal of Health Economics.

Yoo-Mi Chin was present at the ceremony and happily took the prize. The large crowd of participants congratulated the prize winners and networked intensively within the remaining reception time.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson

Yoo-Mi Chin & Klaus F. Zimmermann
Klaus F. Zimmermann & Shuaizhang Feng

Ends;

First Renmin – GLO Conference on the Chinese Labor Market 2018: Final Program and Event Pictures

The School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China (Beijing) and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) had organized their First Joint Conference on the Chinese labor market on 20 and 21 October 2018 at Renmin University of China, Beijing. The conference series provides a platform for researchers working on topics related to the Chinese labor market, including migration, discrimination, health and well-being, education, environment and labor market policies. The event is part of the Chinese Labor Market Cluster of GLO headed by GLO Cluster Lead Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO), who is also a GLO Research Director.


GLO Cluster Lead Corrado Giulietti

Keynote speakers were
Xin Meng (Australian National University & GLO)
Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO )
Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University & GLO )

The Program Committee consisted of
Sylvie Démurger (French National Centre for Scientific Research & GLO )
Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University & GLO )
Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO )
Jun  Han (Renmin University of China & GLO)

The Organizers were:
Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO )
Jun  Han (Renmin University of China& GLO

The strong Final Program:
COPY

The well organized event brought a larger number of labor economists interested in the Chinese labor market together for intensive two days of high quality academic exchange and social interactions to foster future research. All participants were very satisfied with the outcomes and are grateful for the work of the local organizing team led by Jun Han and the strong support of GLO Fellow Dean Weiguo Yang of Remin University of China.

Day 1: 20 October 2018

Keynote: Intergenerational Behavioural Consequences of a Socio-Political Upheaval
Xin Meng (Australian National University & GLO)

Session: “Labor Demand” Chair : Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China & GLO)
Workers’ Valuation of Workplace Flexibility: A Field Experiment
Haoran He (Beijing Normal University), David Neumark (University of California at Irvine), Qian Weng
(Renmin University of China)
A Curse or a Blessing: Long-term Effects of the Soviet Union Aid Plants to China
Jingxuan Du (Renmin University of China), Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China & GLO)
To Upgrade or To Relocate? Explaining Heterogeneous Responses of Chinese Light
Manufacturing Firms to Rising Labor Costs
Fei Wang (Renmin University of China & GLO), Junjie Xia (Peking University), Jiajun Xu (Peking
University)

Keynote: China’s One-Child Policy and Its Relaxation Effects on Fertility
Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO)

Session: “Family Economics” Chair : Rufei Guo(Wuhan University & GLO)
The Effects of Children’s Gender Composition on Filial Piety and Old-Age Support
Rufei Guo (Wuhan University & GLO), Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO)
Son Preference and Human Capital Investment Among China’s Rural-Urban Migrant Households Carl Lin (Bucknell University & GLO), Yan Sun (Beijing Normal University), Chunbing Xing (Beijing
Normal University & GLO)
Session: “Productivity and Innovation” Chair : Teng Li(National University of Singapore)
From Tradition to Modern: The Impact of Knowledge Diffusion on Idea
Liu Xuke (Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences)
Non-linear Incentives and Worker Productivity: Evidence from a Quasi-experiment
Richard Freeman (Harvard University), Wei Huang (National University of Singapore), Teng Li
(National University of Singapore)
The Wage-productivity Nexus in the World Factory Economy
Giovanni Dosi (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna & GLO), Maria Enrica Virgillito (Catholic University of
Milan & GLO), Xiaodan Yu (University of Nottingham Ningbo China & GLO)

Day 2: 21 October 2018

Session: “Education” Chair : Haoran He (Beijing Normal University)
Labor Market Discrimination against Family Responsibilities: A Correspondence Study with
Policy Change in China
Haoran He (Beijing Normal University), Sherry Xin Li (University of Texas at Dallas), Yuling Han (Beijing Normal University)
Dynamics of Returns to Elite University Education: Evidence from Chinese Labor Market
Sylvie Démurger (French National Center for Scientific Research & GLO),  Eric A. Hanushek (Stanford
University),  Lei Zhang (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
Elite School Designation and House Prices: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Beijing, China
Bin Huang (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics), Xiaoyan He (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics), Lei Xu (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Yu Zhu (University of
Dundee & GLO)
Air Pollution, Student Health, and School Absences: Evidence from China
Siyu Chen (National University of Singapore), Chongshan Guo (Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention), Xinfei Huang (International School of Business and Finance)  
Keynote: Recent Labor Market Research on China
Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Renmin University of China & GLO)
 
Conclusions and Farewell : The intention is to organize the next joint workshop in October 2019.

Ends;