The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics was announced and given at the #ASSA2019 meeting in Atlanta. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications. In every year, the Prize is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. List of Kuznets Prize winners.

The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Interview with Author Yoo-Mi Chin, Professor of Economics at Baylor University

GLO: Is a rise of fertility after a disaster not the expected proper Malthusian response?

Yoo-Mi Chin: It is ambiguous whether we can clearly expect a Malthusian response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. It is true that population might recover from a positive check like diseases by increasing fertility. But after all, HIV is a sexually transmitted disease, and proliferation of HIV may lower fertility by inducing the use of contraception for safe sex. Further, HIV takes a heavy toll on working age adults. Like we see in the case of Black Death, as large-scale mortality causes labor shortages and subsequent higher wages, more women participate in labor market, which would lead to lower fertility. On the other hand, it is also possible that higher wages generate an income effect on the number of children. A lower life expectancy may increase fertility through lower returns to education and the child quantity-quality trade-off. Given such theoretical ambiguity, we find that an empirical examination of the issue is warranted.

GLO: How is fertility affected by a rise in the disease risk?

Yoo-Mi Chin: We find that a doubling of HIV prevalence increased total fertility rate by approximately 1.37 births and increased surviving children by approximately 0.38 children, using distance to the origin of the pandemic as an instrument for HIV prevalence. Although HIV/AIDS likely has increased child mortality, our findings suggest that the increase in births exceeded the increase in child mortality.

GLO: What are the policy implications?

Yoo-Mi Chin: The rise of the HIV/AIDS pandemic appears to have increased total fertility and the number of surviving children. Although the net effect of the pandemic on GDP per capita needs to be more thoroughly examined in future research, the increases in total fertility and the number of surviving children coupled with high mortality of working age adults could potentially lead to increases in dependency ratios and decreases in GDP per capita. Our results suggest that positive externalities generated by HIV prevention efforts might be larger than previously thought in that they contribute not only to reductions in HIV prevalence but also to reductions in total fertility, which could potentially enhance future welfare. Therefore, more resources for HIV prevention efforts are warranted.

The Story

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

The Author

Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.

2019 Journal of Population Economics: Issues

Issue 2019/1: Is already out! Please see Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Issue 2019/2: Will be out in a few weeks. See forthcoming announcements.

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