A new GLO Discussion Paperuses a Markov chain to model the spatial dynamics of the population distribution for microdata from the American Community Survey.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study investigates why the strong form of the spatial equilibrium is weakly supported in the literature. Using a discrete choice model, it shows that the strong form of the spatial equilibrium is rarely observed because workers are imperfectly mobile from the perspective of researchers. Incorporating the discrete choice model, a Markov chain is used to model the spatial dynamics of the population distribution. For a given location choice set, the population distribution is shown to converge to a unique spatial steady state. Microdata from the American Community Survey show that the model assumption is reasonable and support the model predictions.
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given by Sergei Guriev on The Political Economy of Populism. Below find a report, the video of the seminar and the background paper.
Announcement/forthcoming seminar: September 3, 2020:London/UKat 1-2 pm —Kompal Sinha, Macquarie University and GLO Topic: To be announced. Registration details will be provided in time.
Report
The Political Economy of Populism
GLO Virtual Seminar on August 6, 2020 with Sergei Guriev (Sciences Po & GLO). Video !!!
Related paper: Sergei Guriev and Elias Papaioannou, The Political Economy of Populism.PDF Draft prepared for the Journal of Economic Literature.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the Australian labor market for native and foreign students and finds that acquiring education in the host country does not appear to eliminate uneven labor market outcomes between natives and foreigners.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper studies the labor market outcomes of native and foreign PhD graduates staying as migrants in Australia, using data on career destinations over the period 1999-2015. Natives with an English-speaking background emerge as benefiting from positive employer discrimination, especially if graduating in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM), for which they receive a premium that is unrelated to observed characteristics such as gender, age, and previous work experience. In contrast, foreign PhD graduates with a non-English speaking background experience worse labor market outcomes, especially if they work in the university sector. Acquiring education in the host country does not appear to eliminate uneven labor market outcomes between natives and foreigners.
EBES and GLO are partner organizations. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES. Among the highlights were the sessions below with GLO Fellows Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, Jonathan Batten, Marco Vivarelli and Dorothea Schäfer. Asli Demirguc-Kunt (World Bank) spoke on the occasion of her appointment as EBES Fellow 2020. Klaus F. Zimmermann congratulated her to this honor and closed the appointment session.
From the left: Batten, Bilgin, Schäfer, Vivarelli, Zimmermann
In his opening speech, EBES President Klaus F. Zimmermann was using his recent joint paper in The World Economy with EBES colleagues to introduce the inter-country transmission challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic and outlined the consequences for academic networking and conferencing. He was calling for attempts to introduce social components into virtual conferences.
The Keynote Panel on How Covid-19 can help us build a better society?was chaired and guided by Jonathan Batten. Klaus F. Zimmermann spoke on human resources issues, Marco Vivarelli an the labor market and Dorothea Schäfer on financial markets.
****************************************** BACKGROUND PAPERmentioned by Zimmermann as an example in his panel contribution. UNU-MERIT Discussion Paper No. 2020-015 Taking the challenge: A joint European policy response to the corona crisis to strengthen the public sector and restart a more sustainable and social Europe by Jo Ritzen, Javi Lopez, André Knottnerus, Salvador Pérez-Moreno, George Papandreou & Klaus F. Zimmermann
• Strong & social Europe • Joint Euro area monetary funding • Joint Euro area borrowing conditional on strong commitments for sustainable development • Better public sector with joint taxation • Sound fiscal behavior • Full employment strategy with vocational training, retraining • Free internal mobility, open labor immigration policy; joint refugee policy. ********************************************
A new GLO Discussion Paperpresents a model which shows that wages, prices and real income should grow faster in countries with low increase in their labor force.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We develop a model which shows that wages, prices and real income should grow faster in countries with low increase in their labor force. If not, other countries experience growing unemployment and/or trade deficit. This result is applied to the case of Germany, which has displayed a significantly lower increase in its labour force than its trade partners, except in the moment of the reunification. By assuming that goods are differentiated according to their country of origin (Armington’s hypothesis), a low growth of the working population constrains the production of German goods, which entails an increase in their prices and in German wages. This mechanism is magnified by the low price elasticity of the demand for German goods. Hence, the German policy of wage moderation could severely constrain other countries’ policy options. The simulations of an extended model which encompasses offshoring to emerging countries and labor market imperfections suggest that (i) the impact of differences in labor force growth upon unemployment in Eurozone countries has been significant and (ii) the German demographic shock following unification could explain a large part of the 1995-2005 German economic turmoil.
A new GLO Discussion Paperpresents a model where better-off individuals mate genetically close partners, and then use wealth to treat their children’s health problems.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this note, I address the trade-off between children’s health and parental preference toward similarity with children. In my model, better-off individuals mate genetically close partners and then use wealth to treat their children’s health problems, caused by inbreeding depression. As a result, the relationship between parental wealth and children’s health includes decreasing portions. Siblings health inequality is also nonmonotonically related to parental wealth, if parents discriminate in favor of more similar children.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that all caste groups lost jobs in the first month of the Covid-19 lockdown, the job losses for lowest-ranked caste are greater by factor of three.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using nationally representative panel data for 21,799 individuals between May 2018 and April 2020, this paper investigates whether the Covid-19 pandemic was indeed a “Great Leveler” in the sense that it imposed similar and equivalent labour market shocks on different caste groups. We find that while all caste groups lost jobs in the first month of the lockdown, the job losses for lowest-ranked caste are greater by factor of three. The data shows that the disproportionate effects stems from lower levels of human capital and over-representation in vulnerable jobs for the lowest ranked caste groups in the country.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using mortality data for Italy finds that the growth in total mortality rates can potentially be used as a statistically reliable predictor of mortality crises.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The paper provides initial evidence that excess mortality rates by locality can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming mortality crises. Using recently published daily deaths figures for 7,357 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015-2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major mortality shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in mid-February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using panel data models, we find a strong positive and significant association between overall deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, and between early increases in mortality rates in February 2020 for any cause and the March 2020 outbreak in COVID-19 deaths. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can potentially be used as a statistically reliable predictor of mortality crises, including COVID- 19 crises.
A new GLO Discussion Papersurveys the empirical literature to find that taste-based discriminationcanbetter explain ethnic discrimination in hiring than statistical discrimination.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Scholars have gone to great lengths to chart the incidence of ethnic labour market discrimination. To effectively mitigate this discrimination, however, we need to understand its underlying mechanisms because different mechanisms lead to different counteracting measures. To this end, we reviewed the recent literature that confronts the seminal theories of taste-based and statistical discrimination against the empirical reality. First, we observed that the measurement operationalisation of the mechanisms varied greatly between studies, necessitating the development of a measurement standard. Second, we found that 20 out of 30 studies examining taste-based discrimination and 18 out of 34 studies assessing statistical discrimination produced supportive evidence for said mechanisms. However, (field) experimental research, which predominantly focuses on hiring outcomes, yielded more evidence in favour of taste-based vis-à-vis statistical discrimination, suggesting that the taste-based mechanism might better explain ethnic discrimination in hiring.
A new GLO Discussion Paperprovides anunderstanding of the mechanisms of hiring discrimination towards former burnout patients .
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Hiring discrimination towards (former) burnout patients has been extensively documented in the literature. To tackle this problem, it is important to understand the underlying mechanisms of such discrimination. Therefore, we conducted a vignette experiment with 425 genuine recruiters and jointly tested the potential stigma against job candidates with a history of burnout that were mentioned earlier in the literature. We found candidates revealing a history of burnout elicit perceptions of requiring work adaptations, likely having more unpleasant collaborations with others as well as diminished health, autonomy, ability to work under pressure, leadership capacity, manageability, and learning ability, when compared to candidates with a comparable gap in working history due to physical injury. Led by perceptions of a reduced ability to work under pressure, the tested perceptions jointly explained over 90% of the effect of revealing burnout on the probability of being invited to a job interview. In addition, the negative effect on interview probability of revealing burnout was stronger when the job vacancy required higher stress tolerance. In contrast, the negative impact of revealing burnout on interview probability appeared weaker when recruiters were women and when recruiters had previously had personal encounters with burnout.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds long-term evidence that the youngest cohort students participate less often in the Erasmus exchange program than older cohort members.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellow Magnus Carlsson & GLO Affiliate Luca Fumarco
Magnus Carlsson
Luca Fumarco
Author Abstract: This study contributes to the literature on long-term effects of relative age (i.e. age differences between classmates in compulsory school) by examining tertiary education outcomes. We investigate whether there is evidence of relative age effects on university students enrolled in the Erasmus exchange program. We use administrative data on all exchange students who visited the Linnaeus University, in Sweden, in the four years since its founding. We find long-term evidence of RAEs—the youngest cohort students participate less often to the Erasmus exchange program than older cohort members.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreviews the economic literature on social remittances.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This article reviews the economic literature on social remittances. Unlike financial remittances, which are flows of cash or goods sent by migrants to their origin countries, social remittances refer to economic, social, political attitudes, behaviours and norms that are transmitted through migration. Although economists are newcomers to this literature, they have contributed to advancing knowledge on the causal effects of migration on social remittances. The evidence reviewed in this article unanimously points at the important role played by international migration in the transfer of norms. However, host countries matter greatly in explaining the types of attitudes and knowledge that are transferred back to countries of origin. Overall, there are still clear gaps in our understanding of social remittances that future research would need to address to enable us to appreciate better the mechanisms through which norms are transferred.
A new GLO Discussion Paperpredicts that in the presence of natural resources and rent seeking, ethnic diversity increases concentration of political power, reduces income per capita and increases income inequality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The empirical evidence suggests that the resource rich countries tend to have poor economic performance and higher rent seeking. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium model explaining why natural resources turn out to be a curse in an economy divided into two classes: elite and workers. Our model explains the resource curse in a setup in which governing elite expropriate rents from natural resources which reduces the productive use of these resources. The expected costs and benefits of such rent seeking activities depend on the degree of ethnic polarization which affects the concentration of political power, and on the quality of institutions which constraints rent seeking. The model predicts that in the presence of natural resources and rent seeking, ethnic diversity increases concentration of political power, reduces income per capita and increases income inequality. Moreover, the impact will be higher in economies that depend more on natural resources.
EBES and GLO are partner organizations. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES.
Among the highlights are the sessions below with GLO Fellows Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, Jonathan Batten, Marco Vivarelli and Dorothea Schäfer.
Asli Demirguc-Kunt will speak on the occasion of her appointment as EBES Fellow 2020.
Dr. Asli Demirguc-Kunt is the Chief Economist of Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank. Over her 30-year career in the World Bank, she has also served as the Director of Research, Director of Development Policy, and the Chief Economist of the Finance and Private Sector Development Network, conducting research and advising on financial and private sector development issues. She has published articles in many of the leading economics and finance journals such as Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, The Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Economic Perspectives etc. and is among the most-cited researchers in the world (Google Scholar = 76K). Her research has focused on the links between financial development, firm performance, and economic development. Banking and financial crises, financial regulation, access to financial services and inclusion, as well as SME finance and entrepreneurship are among her areas of research. She has also created the Global Financial Development Report series and the Global Findex financial inclusion database. She was the President of the International Atlantic Economic Society (2013-14) and Director of the Western Economic Association (2015-18) and serves on the editorial boards of professional journals. Prior to her position in the World Bank, she was an Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in economics from Ohio State University.
A new GLO Discussion Paperadvertises for the unemployment-to-population ratio and the inactivity-to-population ratio as two highly appropriate and complementary measures of labor market health.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This article introduces the metaphor of the iceberg in the labor market. While policy in most OECD countries has historically focused on reducing unemployment (the tip of the iceberg), the group of inactive people (below the waterline) is much larger. Therefore, we point to the clear limitations of the unemployment rate as the (single) key macro-economic indicator of the health of the labor market. A parsimonious dashboard approach utilizing the unemployment-to-population ratio and the inactivity-to-population ratio as two highly appropriate and complementary measures is defended. We show that the ratio of these two indices varies greatly between countries, which calls for different policies for different countries.
Report of the Editor-in-Chief 2020 (23 July, 2020) PDF of Report
The Journal of Population of Economicsis an international quarterly that publishes original theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics, household economics, and human resources. This report contains information about the Journal and its editorial process in the past year and some earlier years.
The number of submissions has substantially increased over recent years (Figure 1). Between 2011 and 2013, the Journal received about 400 submissions per year; by 2016 the number of submissions neared 500, and in 2019, 617 manuscripts were received. The inflow appears to be holding steady; as of the end of July 2020, the journal had received 485 new manuscripts; during the same period last year, a much smaller number of manuscripts (327) had been received.
In line with past years, the largest single share of submissions made in 2019 were from corresponding authors based in Europe (Figure 2). Over 40% of all submissions originated from Europe, and nearly one-third (29%) of submissions came from authors based in Asia and the Middle East. Under one-fifth (20%) of submissions came from authors based in North America. The remaining submissions came from contributors from Africa (4%), Oceania (Australia and New Zealand; 5%), and South and Central America (3%).
Figure 3 contains the internet visits to the Journal on the Springer website from the world regions. With over a third of visits coming from North America and 29% from Europe, followed by the Asia-pacific region (22%), the Journal is globally accessed and read.
Figure 4 shows that the average number of days between submission and first decision has generally declined over time. Despite a slight uptick in the turnaround time for first decisions between 2015 and 2016, which may be partially attributed to the increased volume of submissions, there was a substantial reduction in turnaround time in following years. In 2019, the average time for first decisions was 30 days. The Journal is committed to keep the time between submission and decisions low, including eventual publication. Since 2013 the Journal has executed a desk rejection policy to provide authors with an early signal for better targeting of their work. The large number of submissions combined with an annual quota of 40 manuscripts keeps the acceptance rates of the Journal very low.
Table 1 shows three acceptance rate measures: 1) the number of manuscripts accepted in a given year as a share of all final decisions made in that year; 2) the number of published articles in a given year as a share of all submissions in that year; and; 3) the number of articles published in a given year divided by the number of the previous year’s submissions.
The number of accepted papers (submitted at any point in time) in a given year as a share of all decisions made in that year has shifted over time. Compared to 9.5% in 2017, the acceptance rate has declined from 7% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2019. If acceptance rate is measured as the number of published manuscripts as a share of total submissions received in that year, the acceptance rate was slightly higher, at 6.5% in 2019 (or 40 manuscripts from among 617 submissions), falling 7.6% in 2017 and 7.1% in 2018. Measuring the acceptance rate as the number of publications as a share of the number of submissions received in the previous year (2018) would yield a 2019 rate of 7.1%, which is lower than the previous years (8.1% in 2017 and 7.6% in 2018).
Table 2 reports the status of papers submitted in the given year for years 2017 – 2019. The Journal’s Impact Factor has increased substantially over time (Figure 5). In 2019, the just published simple Impact Factor was 1.840, and the 5-year Impact Factor was 2.353. The Journal ranked 120/371 in economics and 11/29 in demography in 2019. As of July 2020, the Journal’s IDEAS/RePEc ranking was 77/2,485 (based on the Simple Impact Factor 15.682, for Journals and all years).
The Journal is ranked in: Social Science Citation Index, Journal Citation Reports/Social Sciences, SCOPUS, EconLit, Google Scholar, EBSCO Discovery Service, ProQuest, CAB International, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, Academic OneFile, Academic Search, Bibliography of Asian Studies, CAB Abstracts, CSA Environmental Sciences, Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, ECONIS, ERIH PLUS, Gale, Global Health, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), JSTOR, OCLC, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Review of Population Reviews, SCImago, and Summon by ProQuest.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Editor-in-Chief Journal of Population Economics
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the stay-at-home order led to a large decrease in traffic accidents as a large decrease in mobility in Louisiana. Further, the composition of accidents has changed.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design to study the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on mobility and traffic accidents. Based on data from Google Community Mobility reports and Uniform Traffic Crash Report from the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LaDOTD), we find that the stay-at-home order led to a large decrease in traffic accidents (-47 percent). In particular, we find a large decrease in accidents involving injury (-46 percent), distracted drivers (-43 percent), and ambulances (-41 percent). We also find evidence of a change in the composition of accidents, with more incidents involving individuals aged 25 to 64, male, and nonwhite drivers. Interestingly, we find no impact on ambulance response time, despite lower traffic. Finally, we document a large decrease in mobility in Louisiana. Our results have important policy implications for traffic management policies.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that restrictions on migration causes unemployment while the effects of restrictions on trade are not so clear.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: To combat COVID-19 the entire world has resorted to global lockdown implying restriction on international labor migration and trade. This paper aims to check the effect of such restrictions on the unemployment of unskilled labor in the source country. In competitive general equilibrium framework with three goods and four factors restriction on migration raises unemployment for given factor intensity. The results remain same even in a slightly different structure of the economy. In case of trade restriction, however, the rise or fall in unemployment depends on both the structure of the economy and the factor intensity assumption.
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that in Greece during the COVID-19 period job separations were lower than usual but employment declined due to a dramatic slowdown in hiring.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We use administrative, survey, and online vacancy data to analyze the short-term labor market impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece. We find that flows into unemployment have not increased; in fact, separations were lower than would have been expected given trends in recent years. At the same time, employment was about 12 percent lower at the end of June than it would have been without the pandemic. Our interrupted time series and difference-in-differences estimates indicate that this was due to a dramatic slowdown in hiring during months when job creation typically peaks in normal years, mostly in tourism. While we do not formally test the reasons for these patterns, our analysis suggests that the measures introduced to mitigate the effects of the crisis in Greece have played an important role. These measures prohibited layoffs in industries affected by the crisis and tied the major form of income support to the maintenance of employment relationships.
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value personal and household services, posing a number of significant policy challenges for London.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization, making it the major driver of the UK economy. But its strengths have also made the city particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of COVID-19, and potentially also to wider negative economic implications of the crisis. Many of London’s key sectors rely on proximity, agglomeration economies and externalities. We evaluate the available data on the impact of the pandemic on London to date, with a particular focus on the differential effects between sectors. We also identify seven key trends, affecting both the demand and supply side of the economy, that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term economic impacts, and assess the potential impacts on London’s major industrial sectors. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value personal and household services, posing a number of significant policy challenges.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.
OPEN ACCESS – Published Online. Forthcoming in print version: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34.
Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that Indian men contribute more hours to homework during lockdown in the Covid-19 crisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Based on national-level panel data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) database, this paper investigates the first effects of Covid-19 induced lockdown on employment and the gendered pattern of time allocation inside the home. Examining the employment status during the last 12 months of over 40,000 individuals surveyed in April 2020 (i.e. during the strict nationwide lockdown), the paper finds that overall employment, which was relatively stable during the pre-pandemic time period, dropped sharply post-lockdown. This drop in employment was not gender neutral. Given the large pre-existing gender gaps in employment, in absolute terms, more men lost employment than women. However, conditional on being employed pre-lockdown, women were roughly 20 percentage points less likely to be employed than men who were employed pre-lockdown. India has amongst the most unequal gender division of household work globally. Comparing hours spent on domestic work pre- and post-lockdown, I find that men increased hours spent on domestic work during lockdown. The male distribution continues to be right-skewed, but the proportions of men doing between 0.5 to 4 hours of housework per day increased post-lockdown. This seems to be driven by increased male unemployment. The time spent with friends decreased for both men and women, but relatively more for women.
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that Covid-related lockdowns result in significant decreases in global air pollution.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Despite a growing literature on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, scant evidence currently exists on its impacts on air quality. We offer the first study that provides cross-national evidence on the causal impacts of COVID-19 on air pollution. We assemble a rich database consisting of daily, sub-national level data of air quality for 178 countries before and after the COVID-19 lockdowns, and investigate their impacts on air quality using a Regression Discontinuity Design approach. We find the lockdowns to result in significant decreases in global air pollution. These results are consistent across measures of air quality and data sources and robust to various model specifications. Some limited evidence emerges that countries with a higher share of trade and manufacturing in the economy or with an initially lower level of air pollution witness more reduced air pollution after the lockdowns; but the opposite result holds for countries near the equator. We also find that mobility restrictions following the lockdowns are a possible explanation for improved air quality.
A new GLO Discussion Paperuses a randomized field experiment in Viet Nam to estimate the effects of computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) on interview duration, number of errors, respondent perceptions, and cost.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We use a randomized field experiment to estimate the effect of computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) on interview duration, number of errors, respondent perceptions, and cost. During Quarter 3 of the 2017 Labor Force Survey data collection for Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam, 15 households were randomly selected and interviewed using pencil-and-paper interviewing (PAPI), while another 15 households were randomly selected and interviewed using CAPI within each of a total of 180 sample enumeration areas. On average, CAPI interviews lasted 9.4 minutes less and had 0.8 less errors per questionnaire relative to PAPI. Respondents were more likely to perceive interview duration as long or very long when the enumerator was female or educated to college level or above, which is contrary to our experimental findings. Finally, the break-even number of interviews that make CAPI cost-effective is 1,769, which is lower than prior estimates and reflects the rapidly decreasing cost of technology.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the effects of the rise in property taxes in Greece during the recent structural reforms to conclude that they led to increases in inequality and (relative) poverty.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: During the last decade, Greece faced one of the most severe debt crises among developed countries, leading to Economic Adjustment Programs in order to avoid a disorderly default. Public expenditure was cut, tax rates were increased and new taxes were introduced aiming at restoring public finances. Prominent among the latter were recurrent property taxes that were playing a very minor role before the crisis. These taxes helped boosting public revenues but were hugely unpopular. The paper examines in detail their distributional impact and finds that they led to increases in inequality and (relative) poverty. The result is stronger in the case of inequality indices that are relatively more sensitive to changes close to the bottom of the distribution and poverty indices that are sensitive to the distribution of income among the poor.
A new GLO Discussion Papersuggests that a higher penetration of industrial robots in the local labor market is positively related to the health of the low-skilled population.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Technological advancements bring changes to our life, altering our behaviors as well as our role in the economy. In this paper, we examine the potential effect of the rise of robotic technology on health. The results of the analysis suggest that higher penetration of industrial robots in the local labor market is positively related to the health of the low-skilled population. A ten percent increase in robots per 1,000 workers is associated with an approximately 10% reduction in the fraction of low-skilled individuals reporting poor health. Further analysis suggests that reallocation of tasks and reduction in unhealthy behavior partly explain this finding.
It is so sad to learn about the sudden and unexpected death of GLO Fellow Ansgar Belke (*March 28, 1965; + July 22, 2020), Professor of Economics at the University of Duisburg-Essen. He is sadly mourned by his many friends including the GLO community. We remember a great scientist and productive colleague.
Ansgar Belke obtained his BA and MA in Economics in Münster, Paris, and Kiel, and a PhD in Economics and Habilitation in Economics and Econometrics from the Ruhr University Bochum, Germany.
He has been since 2008 a Full Professor of Macroeconomics and Director of the Institute of Business and Economic Studies (IBES) at the University of Duisburg-Essen. He has been (ad personam) Jean Monnet Professor since 2012. Before, he was Full Professor of Economics, in particular Macroeconomics, Applied Economics, and Economic Policy, at the University of Vienna (2000-2001); C4 Professor of Economics, in particular Foreign Trade, at the University of Hohenheim (2001-2007); Head of the Eastern European Centre at the University of Hohenheim (2001-2007); and Head of the Centre for European Integration Research at the University of Hohenheim (2001-2007).
Ansgar Belke has been an Associate Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels; and a Visiting Researcher at the IMF in Washington, DC, CentER Tilburg, CEPS Brussels, IfW Kiel, DIW Berlin, and OeNB Vienna. Furthermore, he has been Research Director for International Macroeconomics at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), and a Visiting Professor at the Hertie School of Governance, Berlin. He served as a member of the “Monetary Expert Panel” of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2014 and has again been appointed for the legislative period of the European Parliament 2020 to 2024.
He has published widely in international refereed journals and other outlets, and had regular appearances in the print media and in national and international television broadcasts.
His main research interests were in the fields of international macroeconomics, monetary economics, European integration, and applied econometrics.
As external DIW Research Director for International Macroeconomics, Ansgar Belke supported Klaus F. Zimmermann during his time as President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in the reforms of the institute.
Ansgar Belke was a GLO Fellow from the beginning and has contributed substantially, e.g. by publishing his research in the GLO Discussion Paper series.
For his academic achievements, Academia Europaea, the Academy of Europe, had elected Ansgar Belke in July 2020 as a member, which is considered to be a huge honor and a sign of great respect.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that women in the Caribbean tourism work for less productive and profitable firms. However, those firms with females at the top employ more women, particularly in management roles.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study contributes to the rapidly growing literature on women in tourism. It focuses on a group of 13 Caribbean countries. The study analyses the impact of women in apical positions within firms (top manager or owner) on firm performance – productivity, profitability and female employment. For this both a decomposition model and the Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) estimator are used. The analysis finds that opportunities for women in these positions in the Caribbean are constrained to less productive and profitable firms, as elsewhere. However, those firms with females at the top employ more women, particularly in management roles.
Featured image: Photo-by-Cristian-Newman-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes.A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since|as of June 16, 2020|they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre-treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
The last issue 4 (October) 2020, Volume 33, of the Journal of Population Economics is now published. Access the Table of Content and the papers.
Clarivate Analytics Social Sciences Citation Index Factor released July 2020: IMPACT FACTOR1.840 (2019) from 1.253 (2018); 5-YEAR IF 2.353 (2019) from 2.072 (2018)
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of grade retention in school on later labor market success. For occupations where on-the-job training is important, job candidates with a record of grade retention are less likely to receive a positive reaction on job applications.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This article contributes to the nascent literature on the effect of grade retention in school on later labour market success. A field experiment is conducted to rule out the endogeneity of both outcomes. More concretely, various treatments of grade retention are randomly assigned to fictitious résumés sent in application to real vacancies. Overall, grade retention does not significantly affect positive call-back by employers. However, when narrowing in on vacancies for occupations where on-the-job training is important, job candidates with a record of grade retention are 16% less likely to receive a positive reaction. This finding is consistent with Queuing theory.
Featured image: Photo-by-Kimberly-Farmer-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper surveys the emerging and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental responses, and attempts to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We develop a possibility to work index (PWI) taking the ability to work from home and workplace closures into account. By using the data from the HLFS in Turkey, we examine the individual level determinants of PWI. Our findings reveal that PWI and ability to work from home are significantly different, and essential or closed jobs are not necessarily concentrated at the bottom of the wage distribution. Therefore, from a policy perspective, PWI can be a more encompassing measure of risk and can assist the public authorities to design better targeted social policies. Our results also point out that wage inequality is likely to deteriorate as a result of the supply shocks from confinement policies. However, the overall negative distributional effects of lockdown and disparity between employees in different economic activities become more substantial with duration. These suggest that in order to avoid major increases in earning inequalities and related social problems, governments would be better off with shorter and stricter lockdowns.
A new GLO Discussion Paper assesses whether students respond to messages about majoring in Economics, and whether this response varies by student gender. While males respond positively, there are no significant effects for female students.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Why is the proportion of women who study Economics so low? This study assesses whether students respond to messages about majoring in Economics, and whether this response varies by student gender. We conducted an experiment among more than 2,000 students enrolled in Economics Principles courses, with interventions proceeding in two phases. In the first phase, randomly assigned students received a message with basic information about the Economics major, or the basic message combined with an emphasis on the rewarding careers or financial returns associated with the major. A control group received no such messages. In the second phase, all students receiving a grade of B- or better received a message after the course ended encouraging them to major in Economics. For a randomly chosen subset of these students, the message also encouraged them to persist in Economics even if their grade was disappointing. The basic message increased the proportion of male students majoring in Economics by 2 percentage points, equivalent to the control mean. We find no significant effects for female students. Extrapolating to the full sample, the basic message would nearly double the male/female ratio among Economics majors. Our results suggest the limits of light-touch interventions to promote diversity in Economics.
A new GLO Discussion Paper surveys the emerging and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental responses, and attempts to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The goal of this piece is to survey the emerging and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental responses, and to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies. This survey (i) provides an overview of the data sets used to measure social distancing and COVID-19 cases and deaths; (ii) reviews the literature on the determinants of compliance and effectiveness of social distancing; (iii) summarizes the literature on the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental interventions, focusing on labor, health, gender, discrimination and environmental aspects; and (iv) discusses policy proposals.
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides worldwide evidence that poor labor market conditions as proxied by unemployment and involuntary part-time employment are associated with lower ‘subjective well-being efficiency,’ while social support, freedom, and the rule of law improve it.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Most of the studies on subjective well-being focus on the determinants of absolute life satisfaction or happiness levels. This paper asks an important but understudied question, namely, could countries achieve the same or even higher subjective well-being by using the same resources more efficiently? We provide the first country panel evidence on whether nations efficiently transform their endowments (income, education, and health) into subjective well- being and which factors influence the conversion efficiency. Using data on 91 countries from 2009-2014, we find that that well-being efficiency gains are possible worldwide. We show that poor labor market conditions as proxied by unemployment and involuntary part-time employment are associated with lower ‘subjective well-being efficiency,’ while social support, freedom, and the rule of law improve it. These findings are useful to policymakers in helping identify inefficiencies, reducing wasteful resource use, and developing policies that promote sustainable development and human well-being. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and raise policy-relevant questions about the appropriate instruments to improve subjective well-being efficiency.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using data for Italy suggests that focusing on education and labor policy, rather than labor flexibility, is the best way to smooth the transition from school to work.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Purpose – There is a long period from completing studies to finding a permanent or temporary (but at least satisfactory) job in all European countries, especially in Mediterranean countries, including Italy. This paper aims to study the determinants of this duration and measure them, for the first time in a systematic way, in the case of Italy. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides several measures of duration, including education level and other criteria. Furthermore, it attempts to identify the main determinants of the long Italian transition, both at a macroeconomic and an individual level. It tests for omitted heterogeneity of those who are stuck at this important crossroads in their life within the context of parametric survival models. Findings – The average duration of the school-to-work transition for young people aged 18–34 years was 2.88 years (or 34.56 months) in 2017. A shorter duration was found for the highly educated; they found a job on average 46 months earlier than those with compulsory education. At a macroeconomic level, the duration over the years 2004–2017 was inversely related to spending in the labour market policy and in education, GDP growth, and the degree of trade-union density; however, it was directly related to the proportion of temporary contracts. At the individual level, being a woman, a migrant, or living in a densely populated area in the South are the risk factors for remaining stuck in the transition. After correcting for omitted heterogeneity, there is clear evidence of positive duration dependence. Practical implications – Positive duration dependence suggests that focusing on education and labour policy, rather than labour flexibility, is the best way to smooth the transition. Originality – This study develops our understanding of the Italian STWT regime by providing new and detailed evidence of its duration and by studying its determinants.
Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash-scaled
A new GLO Discussion Paper elaborates China’s consequential and ongoing economic demography transition strategy within the economic and development policy discourse.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The first pandemic of the 21st century has brought Pyrrhic attention to one of the era’s greatest megatrends – population ageing. Today rich countries are disproportionately affected but increasingly the world’s elderly are residents of developing countries. In rich and poor countries alike, a policy approach that explicitly accounts for the interdependence of economic and demographic change – an economic demography transition approach – has never been more pressing. Thanks partly to the tragedy of history’s greatest Malthusian stagnation, that of mid-20th century China, Chinese policymakers implemented draconian population control measures alongside dramatic economic reforms from around 1980. This paper elaborates China’s consequential and ongoing economic demography transition strategy within the economic and development policy discourse. Amid epochal demographic, public health, and geo-economic change, this economic demography perspective is timely, unique and useful in extrapolation across all economies.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the contribution of childhood circumstances to health inequality is larger in the USA than in China for self-rated health, mental health, and physical health.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper estimates the extent to which childhood circumstances contribute to health inequality in old age and evaluates the importance of major domains of childhood circumstances to health inequalities in the USA and China. We link two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2013 and 2015 with the newly released 2014 Life History Survey (LHS), and two waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in 2014 and 2016 with the newly released 2015 Life History Mail Survey (LHMS) in the USA, to quantify health inequality due to childhood circumstances for which they have little control. Using the Shapley value decomposition approach, we show that childhood circumstances may explain 7-16 percent and 14-30 percent of health inequality in old age in China and the USA, respectively. Specifically, the contribution of childhood circumstances to health inequality is larger in the USA than in China for self-rated health, mental health, and physical health. Examining domains of childhood circumstance, regional and rural/urban status contribute more to health inequality in China, while family socioeconomic status (SES) contributes more to health inequality in the USA. Our findings support the value of a life course approach in identifying the key determinants of health in old age. Distinguishing sources of health inequality and rectifying inequality due to early childhood circumstances should be the basis of policy promoting health equity.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using data from Bangladesh finds that both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly (and largely to the same degree) positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences. Families cluster in those with either relatively patient, risk-tolerant and pro-social members or in families with relatively impatient, risk averse and spiteful members.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO FellowsShyamal Chowdhury, Matthias Sutter & Klaus F. Zimmermann
Shyamal Chowdhury
Matthias Sutter
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Author Abstract: Economic preferences are important for lifetime outcomes such as educational achievements, health status, or labor market success. We present a holistic view of how economic preferences are related within families. In an experiment with 544 families (and 1,999 individuals) from rural Bangladesh we find a large degree of intergenerational persistence of economic preferences. Both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly (and largely to the same degree) positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and socio-economic background data. We discuss possible transmission channels for these relationships within families and find indications that there is more than pure genetics at work. Moving beyond an individual level analysis, we are the first to classify a whole family into one of two clusters, with either relatively patient, risk-tolerant and pro-social members or relatively impatient, risk averse and spiteful members. Socio-economic background variables correlate with the cluster to which a family belongs to.
The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of June finds that existing cross-language variations among migrants from the same countries of originaffected human capital accumulation of second generation migrantsin the US.
Author Abstract: This research establishes empirically that existing cross-language variations in the structure of the future tense and the presence of grammatical gender affected human capital accumulation. Exploiting variations in the dominant languages among migrants from the same countries of origin, the study explores the impact of these traits on the educational attainment of second generation migrants in the US. The results suggest that college attendance among individuals with identical ancestry is (i) higher if the dominating language at home has a periphrastic future tense, and (ii) lower for women exposed predominantly to sex-based grammatical gender.
GLO DP Team Senior
Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F.
Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
A new GLO Discussion Paper using data from India reveals that enrolling in a selective college affects cognition, preferences and personality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We exploit the variation in admission cutoffs across colleges at a leading Indian university to estimate the causal effects of enrolling in a selective college on cognitive attainment, economic preferences, and Big Five personality traits. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that enrolling in a selective college improves university exam scores of the marginally admitted females, and makes them less overconfident and less risk averse, while males in selective colleges experience a decline in extraversion and conscientiousness. We find differences in peer quality and rank concerns to be driving our findings.
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines how work norms affect Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) take-up rates in response to worsening economic conditions focusing on immigrants in the US and their work norms determined in the home country. Receiving SSDI is more sensitive to economic downturns among immigrants from countries where people place less importance on work.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine how work norms affect Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) take-up rates in response to worsening economic conditions. By focusing on immigrants in the US, we can consider the influence of work norms in a person’s home country, which we argue are exogenous to labor market prospects in the US. We find that the probability of receiving SSDI is more sensitive to economic downturns among immigrants from countries where people place less importance on work. We also provide evidence that this result is not driven by differential sensitivities to the business cycle or differences in SSDI eligibility.
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that temporary migration policies may have beneficial impacts on immigrants’ sleep in the short-term.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Stress is associated with sleep problems. And poor sleep is linked with mental health and depression symptoms. The stress associated with immigrant status and immigration policy can directly affect mental health. While previous studies have documented a significant relationship between immigration policy and the physical and mental health of immigrants, we know little about the effects that immigration policy may have on immigrants’ sleep patterns. Exploiting the approval of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) in 2012, we study how immigrants’ sleep behavior responds to a change in immigration policy. Consistent with previous research documenting positive effects of DACA on mental health, we find evidence of a significant improvement in immigrants’ sleep in response to this policy change. However, the estimated effects of the policy quickly disappear since 2016. While temporary authorization programs, such as DACA, may have beneficial impacts on immigrants’ sleep in the short-term, the effects of temporary programs can be rapidly undermined by the uncertainty on their future. Thus, permanent legalization programs may be more effective in achieving long-term effects, eliminating any uncertainty related to the undocumented immigrant legal status.
The rising rivalry between China and the US generates concerns around the world (timeline U.S. relations with China). In his new book (China versus the US. Who will prevail?), Alfredo Toro Hardy (Venezuelan Scholar and Diplomat) provides an insightful analysis of open questions and mysteries drawing from his life-long experience as a diplomat. In the interview below, he addresses some of the issues of concern.
New book! Alfredo Toro Hardy (Venezuelan Scholar and Diplomat): China versus the US. Who will prevail? 2020, World Scientific, 304 Pages. MORE INFORMATION.
Some core messages of the interview:
None will be ready to yield to the other.
The Chinese have made their aims more difficult to attain.
China would not accept to subordinate itself indefinitely to America’s leadership in its own part of the world.
Although the US possesses overall technological superiority, China will be able to match it or surpass it in a group of key technologies.
America’s democratic but utterly dysfunctional political system is being globally compared to China’s authoritarian but responsive one. There is no doubt that for many the latter results more attractive.
While globalization has allowed China to lift 800 million people out of poverty, nationalism identifies itself with the belief that the country’s ancient history and its tradition of centrality entitles it to a position of privilege.
Technological human displacement is not privative to China.
The confrontation between China and the US has become structural and not simply conjectural.
GLO Fellow Alfredo Toro Hardy, Venezuelan Scholar and Diplomat, is a former Ambassador of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the US, UK, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Ireland and Singapore.
GLO: Why has US-China competition become inevitable?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: Both countries perceive themselves as pinnacles within human history. The Middle Kingdom and the Exceptional Nation feel entitled to leadership by history or providence. Both look at the future under the lenses of their national myths. Under those circumstances none will be ready to yield to the other. Specially so as the gap in their comprehensive national power is rapidly closing.
GLO:Was China challenging the US too early?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: There seems to be no doubt that by speeding times, heralding their ambitions and boasting about their capabilities, while at the same time hardening their geopolitical and military stance, the Chinese have made their aims more difficult to attain. They have created for themselves many unnecessary problems. However, for a county as obsessed as China in continuously measuring its comprehensive national power, it would seem to be out of context to have provoked U.S. reaction if they have felt unprepared for a measurement of forces.
GLO: The obvious US response would be a long-term containment policy of China. How could this work?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: A long-term containment of China by the United States, would be the latter’s preferred option. Specially so, given the final success of this policy in relation to the Soviet Union. However, there is a big difference in both cases. During the Cold War, neither the Americans nor the Soviets challenged each other’s main spheres of influence (Cuba excepted, and this almost led to war). The contrast with the current situation is notorious. The United States’ containment of China not only includes Taiwan (which China considers to be an integral part of its territory) but takes place in an area that for millennia was a tributary dependent region of China. China would not accept to subordinate itself indefinitely to America’s leadership in its own part of the world.
GLO:You seem to suggest that China has the better cards to win the competition for world leadership, why?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: Although the United States still prevails in military, economic and technological capabilities, reverse trend in motion favor China. Economically, China’s ascendancy and its surpassing of the US seems inevitable. Militarily, China’s asymmetric power has the capacity to neutralize much of the current US superiority, while the inversely evolving budgetary capability of both countries will clearly play in favor of China. Moreover, America’s superiority in nuclear weapons may prove to be more theoretical than real if China’s overwhelming advantage in conventional ballistic missiles can match the US tactical nuclear capability, while China’s second-strike capacity can deter an American first strike. Finally, although the US possesses overall technological superiority, China will be able to match it or surpass it in a group of key technologies. On the other hand, China’s emphasis on strategically oriented basic research outweighs America’s market oriented applied research.
GLO:Globalism is under thread anyway. There is a global tendency to strengthen nationalism and autocratic regimes. A good time to popularize the Chinese model?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: Contrary to the Cold War with the USSR, America’s emerging Cold War with China is not based in ideology but in the efficiency that both countries’ models can exhibit. If we measure such efficiency by the handling of the Covid 19 pandemic, a clear difference emerges. Although the initial lack of transparency by China had a great impact in the global diffusion of the Coronavirus (and this certainly plays against its model), the extraordinary efficiency shown by this country in the domestic containment of the virus grossly contrasts with the botched response by the United States. America’s democratic but utterly dysfunctional political system is being globally compared to China’s authoritarian but responsive one. There is no doubt that for many the latter results more attractive.
GLO:In the Chinese understanding, there is complementarity of nationalism and globalization. What is the explanation?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: Chinese culture includes the complementary of opposites as exemplified by the duality of yin and yang. Within that context, globalization (so far synonymous of economic prosperity) and nationalism are seen as interdependent expressions of state policy, which converge in the aim of legitimizing the regime in the eyes of its citizens. While globalization has allowed China to lift 800 million people out of poverty, nationalism identifies itself with the belief that the country’s ancient history and its tradition of centrality entitles it to a position of privilege. Moreover, a century of humiliation by foreign powers impose the need to stand tall. This dual policy has been conceptualized under the aphorism of “grabbing with the two hands”. However, keeping the equilibrium between these forces is a daunting task. One false step, one overreach, one overreaction and everything might be blown to pieces.
GLO:Unlike the US, China’s future is burdened with its demographic problems (ageing, immigration pressure) and the need to achieve welfare increases through international trade, e.g. by importing necessary food. Is this not a challenge for the Chinese ambitions?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: With a rapidly aging population, as a result of the combination of low fertility rate and rising life expectancy, technology becomes a providential answer to the country’s quest to attain its “rejuvenation” –a nationalistic catchword that glues together the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese population. Technology and rejuvenation thus become inseparable notions. Under those circumstances the search of economic prosperity and nationalism, the two strongest legitimizing forces of the regime, blend in their support to technology. However, even if technology “rejuvenate” the country it also displaces human labor and can significantly affect the welfare of many segments of society. Technological human displacement, though, is not privative to China. On the contrary, it is in the process of becoming one of the world’s biggest challenges of the Twenty First century. For the US, with a much larger percent of relay population and a lack of unifying national banners, this may lead to a more complex situation than China’s.
GLO:What role can the results of the forthcoming US Presidential elections play for the next phase of the US-China competition?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: I am afraid that a change in the White House may not change much. The confrontation between China and the US has become structural and not simply conjectural. Xi Jinping pursues fenfa youwei, meaning the attainment of great aims. This translates into a position of leadership in world affairs and a redefinition of its geopolitical footprint in Asia. For the United States this represents an unacceptable challenge to its leadership. In the same manner in which an expansive Chinese nationalism upholds Xi’s aims, a wide domestic coalition and an anti China popular sentiment sustain America’s reaction to that country’s assertiveness. Under those circumstances, Trump’s departure from the White House would only bring down Washington’s circus show, but not the emerging Cold War.
************* With Alfredo Toro Hardy spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using large-scale firm data for Denmark finds that government aid was effective in preserving job matches at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies on firms’ aid takeup, layoff and furlough decisions. We collect new survey data for 10,642 small, medium and large Danish firms, and match to government records of all aid-supported furloughed workers during the pandemic as well as administrative accounting data. This is the first representative sample of firms reporting the pandemic’s impact on their revenue and labor choices, showing a steep decline in revenue and a strong reported effect of labor aid take-up on lower job separations. Relative to a normal year, 30 percent more firms have experienced revenue declines. Comparing firms’ actual layoff and furlough decisions to their reported counterfactual decisions in the absence of aid, we estimate 81,000 fewer workers were laid off and 285,000 workers were furloughed. Our results suggest the aid policy was effective in preserving job matches at the start of the pandemic.
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are posted on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the Video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
Announcement: August 6, 2020; London/UKat 1-2 pm — Sergei Guriev, Sciences Po, Paris, and GLO The Political Economy of Populism Registration details will be provided in time.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the inclusion of family workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census of the USA, from 16 percent to 56 percent, which is comparable to today’s rate (57 percent in 2018).
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Rates of labor force participation in the US in the second half of the nineteenth century among free women were exceedingly (and implausibly) low, about 11 percent. This is due, in part, to social perceptions of working women, cultural and societal expectations of female’s role, and lack of accurate or thorough enumeration by Census officials. This paper develops an augmented free female labor force participation rate for 1860. It is calculated by identifying free women (age 16 and older) who were likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are identified as not having a reported occupation, but are likely to be working on the basis of the self-employment occupation of other relatives in their households. Family workers are classified into three categories: farm, merchant, and craft. The inclusion of this category of workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census, from 16 percent to 56 percent, which is comparable to today’s rate (57 percent in 2018).
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that following the EU Referendum Results on Brexit Non-EU migrants experienced an improvement in both mental health and life satisfaction relative to the UK natives.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper is the first attempt to analyze the effect of the Brexit Referendum results on subjective well-being of immigrants living in the UK. Using the national representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) data and adopting a difference-in-differences estimates, we define natives as control group, and different sub-groups of immigrants as treatment groups. The current analysis suggests that following the EU Referendum Results Non-EU migrants experienced an improvement in both mental health and life satisfaction relative to the UK natives. The results are robust to several robustness checks. Among others, we account for unobserved individual fixed effects and for unbalanced panel data. The results are consistent with the idea that the end of free movement for EU immigrants has alleviated the sense of discrimination and frustration felt by Non-EU immigrants results mainly of the toughened visa restrictions enforced since 2010 by the UK Government.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that Covid-19 has induced a decline in business ownership in Canada.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using the Canadian Labour Force Survey, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on self-employed individuals in Canada, which we interpret as small business owners. We document an important decrease in business ownership between February 2020 and May 2020 (-14.8 percent for incorporated and -10.1 percent for unincorporated entities). We find a greater decrease in ownership and aggregate hours for women, immigrants and less educated over the same period. The industries with the largest decrease are in art, culture, and recreation (-14.8 percent); in education, law and social, community and government services (-13.6 percent); and in sales and service occupations (-12.8 percent).
School of Public Health, Peking Union Medical College
Meinian Public Health Research Institute, Peking University Health Science Center
Geocomputation Center for Social Sciences, Wuhan University
School of Public Health, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
School of Medicine and Health Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
School of Public Health, Central South University
School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University
School of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University
School of Health Care Management, Shandong University
School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University
School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University
School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University
Institute of Health Education and Lifecourse Promotion (iHELP)
9:00-11:00 PM, July 9, 2020
I. Overview (in Chinese)
An Overview of Models for COVID-19 Pandemic, Perter Song, University Michigan
An Overview of Data and Resources for COVID-19 Modeling, Tao Hu, Harvard University
Discussants:
Qiushi Chen, Penn State University
Chaowei Yang, George Mason University
Chair: Harry Zhang, Old Dominion University
9:00-11:00 PM, July 16, 2020
II. Methodology (in Chinese)
Peng Gong, Tsinghua University
Jian Ni, Johns Hopkins University
Discussants:
Shiyong Liu, Southwest University of Finance and Economics
Mingwang Shen, Xian Jiaotong University
Chair: Jian Wang, Wuhan University
9:00-11:00 PM, July 23, 2020
III.Applications (in English)
Xi Chen, Yale University
Winnie Chi-Man Yip, Harvard University
Discussants:
Yiwei Chen, Stanford University
Liming Cai, U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
Chair: Mengxi Zhang, Ball State University
9:00-11:00 PM, July 30, 2020
IV. Predictions, Role of Intervention and the Historic National Lockdown in India(in English)
Bhramar Mukherjee, Debashree Ray, Maxwell Salvatore, Rupam Bhttacharyya, University of Michigan
Discussant:
Yanfang Su, University of Washington
Chair: Lizheng Shi, Tulane University
Background:
As a joint effort by scholars and professionals from the Center for Geographical Analysis at Harvard University, the Geo-Computation Center for Social Sciences at Wuhan University, the China Data Institute, the Spatiotemporal Innovation Center at George Mason University, RMDS Lab, and some other institutions, an initiative on “Resources for COVID-19 Study” was sponsored by the China Data Lab project (http://chinadatalab.net). The objectives of this project are: (1) to provide data support for the spatial study of COVID-19 at local, regional and global levels with information collected and integrated from different sources; (2) to facilitate quantitative research on spatial spreading and impacts of COVID-19 with advanced methodology and technology; (3) to promote collaborative research on the spatial study of COVID-19 on the China Data Lab, Dataverse and WorldMap platforms; and (4) to build research capacity for future collaborative projects. This forum will discuss data resources, methodology, technology, and applications for COVID-19 models across countries and regions.
