A new GLO Discussion Paperexamines the influence of the statutory minimum wage in Germany on labor demand elasticities for low-skilled workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study examines the influence of the statutory minimum wage on labor demand elasticities regarding low-skilled workers. For this, a regression discontinuity analysis is conducted using company panel data from 2013 to 2018. In addition, a possible endogeneity of the remuneration for low-skilled workers was considered using an IV estimation. It is shown that the monopsonistic structures of the labor market may continue to exist after the introduction of the minimum wage. Additionally, the own-wage elasticity for low-skilled workers did not change over the period considered. However, in the short run, stronger substitutive relationships with medium-skilled workers seem to exist, and probably also with highly qualified employees in the long run.
A new GLO Discussion Papersuggests that the gender gap in unpaid work in Columbia depends on factors such as educational level, paid employment status, and family composition.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Gender inequality is much more than wage gaps. Indeed, one interesting case is how individuals allocate time among different activities such as paid work, unpaid work and domestic work. This paper aims to quantify gender inequality in the time use in unpaid care and home activities and to investigate the main drivers of gender gaps in Colombia using the National Time Use Survey. Our results suggest that the gender gap in unpaid work depends on factors such as educational level, paid employment status, and family composition. Counterfactual exercises comparing individuals under different family contexts suggest that the gender gap varies importantly with the presence of children, marital status and individual’s participation in the generation of household income.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the occupational selection among generations of immigrants in the United States and shows how their choices are linked to the occupational wage distribution in their country of origin.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper studies the occupational selection among generations of immigrants in the United States and links their choices to the occupational wage distribution in their country of origin. The empirical results suggest that individuals are more likely to take up an occupation in the US that was more lucrative in the origin country, conditional on individual demographics, parental human capital, and ethnic networks. However, the importance of the origin wage declines with the length of time that immigrants spend in the US and over generations. Information friction may be an explanation.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsfinds thatrailroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
by Andres Forero, Francisco A. Gallego, Felipe Gonzalez and Matıas Tapia
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK
GLO Fellow Francisco A. Gallego
Railway
Author Abstract: We explore how railroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile. We look at areas with a strong comparative advantage in agriculture using novel data that document 60 years of railroad construction. Using instrumental variables, we present four main findings. First, railroads increased both urban and rural population growth. Second, the impact was stronger in areas with more potential for agricultural expansion. Third, railroads increased specialization in agriculture when combined with a high level of the real exchange rate. And fourth, railroads had little effect on human capital and fertility. These results suggest that the effects of transportation technologies depend on existing macroeconomic conditions.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 29K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 26, 2020.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsstudies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS!! GLO Fellow Jacob Nielsen Arendt GLO Discussion Paper No. 662, 2020
Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country, Denmark. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up entry into regular jobs for men, but they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. Long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.
The new GLO Discussion Paperpresents evidence about the effects of stereotypical beliefs of teachers on learning outcomes of secondary school students in India.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of stereotypical beliefs of teachers on learning outcomes of secondary school students in India. We measure teacher’s bias through an index capturing teacher’s subjective beliefs about the role of gender and other characteristics in academic performance. We tackle the potential endogeneity of teacher’s subjective beliefs by controlling for teacher fixed effects in a value-added model that includes lagged test score of students. We find that a standard deviation increase in biased attitude of the math teacher widens the female disadvantage in math performance by 0.07 standard deviation over an academic year. This negative effect of biased teachers is significant only for male teachers. The effect is especially strong among the medium-performing students and in classes where the majority of students are boys. Moreover, among the medium-performing students, having a female teacher significantly reduces the gender gap in math performance. As a plausible mechanism, we show that biased teachers negatively affect girls’ attitude towards math as compared to boys. Unlike math outcome, we do not find any significant effect when we analyze the effect of biased English teachers on English scores of the same students.
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A new GLO Discussion Paper explores the impact of the adoption and the removal of restrictive measures in the Italian Covid-19 crisis on changes in individual mobility in Italy.The measures lowered individual mobility by about 7 percentage points.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Italy was among the first countries to introduce drastic measures to reduce mobility in order to prevent the diffusion of Covid-19. On March 9, 26 out of 111 provinces were subject to severe limitations on individual mobility between municipalities. One day later, new restrictive measures were introduced in the whole country with no regional distinctions: this continued until June 3 when the limits on movements across regions were eventually lifted. By looking at these watershed moments, this paper explores, for the first time, the impact of the adoption and the removal of restrictive measures on changes in individual mobility in Italy. By using a spatial discontinuity approach, we show that these measures were effective in that they lowered individual mobility by about 7 percentage points relative to what is accounted for by the characteristics of the local population and the disease. The analysis shows, however, that local features played an important role after the travelling bans were lifted: the catching up with pre-Covid-19 patterns has been stronger in those areas where the labour force is relatively less exposed to the risk of contagion and less likely to work from home.
Amsterdam, October 23, 2020, 2 pm. Wageindicator Foundation. Virtual conference on the “GIG Economy Around the World”. Welcome by Paulien Osse, Wageindicator Foundation Director. Keynote speech by Klaus F. Zimmermann (President, GLO; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University). Conference website for registration. GLO and Wageindicator Foundation are collaborating organizations.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds an increase in poverty and labor income inequality in the majority of the LAC countries due to social distancing. Most of the dispersion in the labor income loss across countries is explained by the sectoraland occupational structure of the economies, while the rest is explained by the type of lockdown policy implemented.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper evaluates the distributional consequences of social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and labor income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We gather detailed information from national laws and decrees on the strictness and the duration of the lockdown in each country and use rich harmonized household surveys from the IADB. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the first phase of the lockdown by constructing the Lockdown Working Ability (LWA) index which takes into account individuals’ ability to work from home but also whether their occupation is affected by workplace closures or mobility restrictions. We find that, on average, 1 worker out of 2 is able to work under the lockdown in the LAC region. We document considerable variation in the share of individuals able to work under the lockdown across countries and within countries across occupations, economic activities and specific population groups. Based on the LWA index, we then estimate individual’s potential labor income losses and examine changes in poverty and labor income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labor income inequality in the majority of the LAC countries due to social distancing. At the national level, the highest increase in the headcount poverty index is 1.4 pp and the highest increase in the Gini coefficient is 2 pp. Decomposing overall labor income inequality in the LAC region, we find that social distancing has lead to a small decrease (-0.1 pp) in inequality between countries but to an increase (2 pp) in inequality within countries. Finally, we document that 63% of the dispersion in the labor income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational structure of the economies, while the rest is explained by the type of lockdown policy that was implemented.
A new GLO Discussion Paperproposes that ancestral use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labor force participation and female property rights.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Per Fredriksson and Satyendra Kumar Gupta
Per Fredriksson
Satyendra K. Gupta
Author Abstract: This paper proposes that ancestral use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labor force participation and female property rights. We test this hypothesis using an exogenous measure of irrigation and data from the Afrobarometer, cross-country data, the European Social Survey, the American Community Survey, and the India Demographic and Household Survey. Our hypothesis receives considerable empirical support. We find negative associations between ancestral irrigation and actual female labor force participation, and attitudes to such participation, in contemporary African and Indian populations, 2nd generation European immigrants, 1.5 and 2nd generation US immigrants, and in cross-country data. Moreover, ancestral irrigation is negatively associated with attitudes to female property rights in Africa and with measures of such rights across countries. Our estimates are robust to a host of control variables and alternative specifications. We propose multiple potential partial mechanisms. First, in pre-modern societies the men captured technologies complementary to irrigation, raising their relative productivity. Fertility increased. This caused lower female participation in agriculture and subsistence activities, and the women worked closer to home. Next, due to the common pool nature of irrigation water, historically irrigation has involved more frequent warfare. This raised the social status of men and restricted women’s movement. These two mechanisms have produced cultural preferences against female participation in the formal labor market. Finally, irrigation produced both autocracy and a culture of collectivism. These are both associated with weaker female property rights.
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Author Abstract:Little evidence currently exists on the effects of COVID-19 on air quality in poorer countries, where most air pollution-linked deaths occur. We offer the first study that examines the pandemic’s impacts on improving air quality in Vietnam, a lower-middle income country with worsening air pollution. Employing the Regression Discontinuity Design method to analyze a rich database that we compile from satellite air pollution data and data from various other sources, we find the concentration of NO2 to decrease by 24 to 32 percent two weeks after the COVID-19 lockdown. While this finding is robust to different measures of air quality and model specifications, the positive effects of the lockdown appear to dissipate after ten weeks. We also find that mobility restrictions are a potential channel for improved air quality. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that two weeks after the lockdown, the economic gains from better air quality are roughly $0.6 billion US dollars.
GLO DP Team Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsfinds that individuals whose mothers were affected by an abortion ban Romania employed in the mid-1960shad asignificantly lower demand for childrenthan those who were not.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink
GLO Fellow Federico Gutierrez
Featured image: dawid-zawila-on-unsplash
Author Abstract: This study examines the extent to which banning women from having abortions affected the fertility of their children, who did not face a similar legal constraint. Using multiple censuses from Romania, I follow men and women born around the time Romania banned abortion in the mid-1960s to investigate the demand for children over their life cycle. The empirical approach combines elements of regression discontinuity design and the Heckman selection model. The results indicate that individuals whose mothers were affected by the ban had significantly lower demand for children than those who were not. One-third of the decline is explained by inherited socio-economic status.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsstudies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 2/2021. Free Readlink – Download PDF GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020
GLO FellowsM. Niaz Asadullah & Zahra Siddique
Niaz Asadullah
Zahra Siddique
Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age 18. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the 2008 policy change in Sweden’s immigration policy. The new non-selective labor-migration policy lowered labor migrants’ mean income by opening the door to unskilled labor.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In 2008, Sweden changed its labor-migration policy in order to facilitate more labor migration from countries outside the EU. The unique design of the new law meant abandoning most state ambitions to shape labor migration. Under the new regulation, there are no labor-market tests or any consideration of the level of human capital. Instead, policy-makers trusted employers to select workers. We adopt a difference-in-differences approach and apply a series of OLS regressions on register data to assess the effects of the policy change on non-EU labor migrants’ labor-market outcomes, as measured by income. The effects of the policy change are substantial. Non-EU labor migration increased and its composition changed after the reform, resulting in a significant decrease in mean incomes. The regression analysis shows that, despite the favorable economic cycle during the post-reform period, moving to Sweden as a third-country labor migrant following the 2008 labor-migration reform had a negative effect on the migrants’ annual income. However, this effect became marginal after controlling for occupational level. We conclude that changes in their occupational composition were the main drivers of the income drop for non-EU labor migrants. In sum, the new non-selective labor-migration policy lowered labor migrants’ mean income by opening the door to unskilled labor.
Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash.
All the presentation in this series are based on the projects that GLO-VirtYS program scholars completed as part of their program participation. Videos of the event are available below.
October 15th Program
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Zhiling Wang, Assistant Professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam and GLO Fellow Do International Study Programmes Pay off for Native Students?VIDEO (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Ömer Tuğsal Doruk, Assistant Professor at Adana Alparslan Türkeş Science and Technology University and GLO Fellow School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish EconomyVIDEO (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova. Full video of the event. For more information about both speakers and their paper abstracts.
Featured image: Photo-by-The-Coherent-Team-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates how many discrimination tests per single agent are needed to convincingly proof discrimination.For the Belgium real estate market, it appears that 10 or more tests are needed per realtor to detect discrimination with a high degree of certainty.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Correspondence tests have been used by scholars and civil rights organizations to measure ethnic discrimination. In contrast to research testing covering a whole market through many discrimination tests, litigation testing typically targets a single agent, which can only be tested through a very low number of tests per agent. This low number of tests poses serious methodological challenges to disentangle systematic discrimination from random treatment. This study examines from a purely statistical point of view how many discrimination tests per single agent are needed to convincingly proof discrimination. We collected unique longitudinal data about 114 real estate agents, which were tested through 10 repeated pairwise matched correspondence tests. It appears that 10 or more tests are needed per realtor to detect discrimination with a high degree of certainty. The required number of tests per agent depends on the pattern of discrimination among the agent under study, the expected non-response rate and the desired degree of certainty.
Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds rising inequality in the Nordic countries in the composition of individual incomes which is due mostly to a shift in capital incomes towards the top of the distribution.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: As far as standard measures of income inequality are concerned, the Nordic countries rank among the most equal economies in the world. This paper studies whether and how this picture changes when the focus is on inequality of income composition, meaning the heterogeneity in individuals’ factor income shares. We highlight the structural change taking place in all the Nordic countries since the early 1990s, with rising inequality in composition of individual incomes due mostly to a shift in capital incomes towards the top of the distribution. We link this result to changes in taxation of factor incomes, by highlighting the role played by the introduction of Dual Income Taxation reforms in the 1990s throughout the Nordic countries. Our estimates of the degree of income composition inequality allow a descriptive analysis of the role of functional distribution as a determinant of personal income inequality in the Nordics. We show that for Denmark in the period 2009-2013, Finland 1990-2007, and Norway 1991-2005, rising capital shares of income contributed to changes in personal income inequality, whilst for Sweden the evidence leads to disregard the capital share as a determinant of income inequality.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds a significant contribution of foreign capital on the accumulated growth of GDP over the period of analysis in Spain.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a major role in the deep process of transformation experienced by the Spanish economy since the first 1960s, which even intensified following the integration with the now European Union (EU) in 1986. In this paper, we analyse the long-run effects of FDI in Spain, by estimating a production function including the foreign capital stock over the period 1964-2013. We find a significant contribution of foreign capital on the accumulated growth of GDP over the period of analysis, which seems however to have been greater during the first years of the period analysed.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the demand for academic support services at a large U.S. public university. Approximately one-third of students are never attentive to student services, and the characteristics of advertising messages matter.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: More than two of every five students who enroll in college fail to graduate within six years. Prior research has identified ineffective study habits as a major barrier to success. We conducted a randomized controlled advertising experiment designed to increase demand for academic support services among more than 2,100 students at a large U.S. public university. Our results reveal several striking findings. First, the intervention shifted proxies of student attention, such as opening emails and self-reported awareness of service availability. However, the experimental variation indicates that approximately one-third of students are never attentive to student services. Second, advertising increased the use of extra practice problems, but did not affect take-up of tutoring and coaching, the other two services. Structural estimates suggest that transaction costs well in excess of plausible opportunity costs explain the differences in service use. Third, the characteristics of advertising messages matter. Several common nudging techniques—such as text messages, lottery-based economic incentives, and repeated messages—either had no effect or in some cases reduced the effectiveness of messaging.
Featured image: Photo by Mikael Kristenson on Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Russia that although the returns to schooling increased for a time, they are now much lower than the global average. Private returns to education are three times greater for higher education compared with vocational education, and the returns to education for females are higher than for males.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper presents new estimates of the returns to education in the Russian Federation using data from 1994 to 2018. Although the returns to schooling increased for a time, they are now much lower than the global average. Private returns to education are three times greater for higher education compared with vocational education, and the returns to education for females are higher than for males. Returns for females show an inverse U-shaped curve over the past two decades. Female education is a policy priority and there is a need to investigate the labor market relevance of vocational education. Higher education may have reached an expansion limit, and it may be necessary to investigate options for increasing the productivity of schooling.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the motherhood penalty on the Indian labor market and how it varies across the different cultural values pertaining to different family settings, regions and workplaces.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Labor market penalty associated with motherhood (in short, motherhood penalty) is an important issue related to gender equality in the society. Our paper is an attempt to empirically examine the extent of motherhood penalty in the context of Indian labor market. We use a nationally representative longitudinal survey data to address this question. We find negative relationship between motherhood and labor market outcomes for women. Besides using conventional measures of motherhood such as number of children, we also devise a new measure of motherhood relevant for our research question. The survey asked the respondents about their desired number of children. We deduct the desired number of children from the actual number of children to come up with a new measure of motherhood that we call extra children. We reckon that often women’s decision to join specific occupations or labor markets in general often internalize their desired number of children; the number they originally planned for. Hence, it is the number of children above the desired number which leads to stronger negative outcomes in the labor market. We find that the extra children variable has a stronger negative impact on women’s labor market outcomes than the conventional measures. We also examine how the extent of motherhood penalty varies across different cultural values pertaining to different family settings, regions and workplaces. We find, depending on different cultures prevailing in the places of residence or workplace, motherhood penalty gets either mitigated or exacerbated. Our results remain robust to alternative measures of motherhood.
Below is the program of the “2nd Bank of Italy Human Capital Workshop”, which will be held online on the 26th of October, 2020. Participation is free of charge, but registration is required. To attend please register with: human_capital@bancaditalia.it. The event is co-organized by GLO Fellows Domenico Depalo and Marta De Philippis.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the labour market effects of removing surgical requirements to change legal gender.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper uses data from the BRFSS over the period 2014-2019 to analyse the impact of removing surgical requirements to change legal gender. In many states transgender people are forced to undergo surgical procedures if they wish to change their gender on ID documents, which can be invasive, expensive, and is not always desired. In the present work state variation in the timing of the removal of surgical requirements is exploited within a triple difference framework to analyse the causal impact of these removals on the labour force participation and employment of transgender people. The findings highlight the detrimental economic impact of surgical requirements for transgender people to be able to reassign gender on birth certificates, especially for those individuals that are least likely to be able to afford surgical treatment.
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Zhiling Wang, Assistant Professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam and GLO Fellow Do International Study Programmes Pay off for Native Students? (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Ömer Tuğsal Doruk, Assistant Professor at Adana Alparslan Türkeş Science and Technology University and GLO Fellow School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the public sector in the UK exhibits a high magnitude of mismatch and is an attractive waiting room for highly-qualified graduates.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper looks at the extent of labor market mismatch of public-sector female employees. It contributes to earlier findings for the British labor market by taking into account the endogenous self-selection into jobs. Estimates are based on data from the British Household Panel Study and the ’Understanding Society’ covering the years 1991-2016. The analysis verifies that the public sector offers a few low skilled jobs and employs, mostly, high-educated (female) workers. Regarding the market flows, findings show the greater mobility of the female workforce, which moves proportionately between sectors. Greater in-/out-flows to/from private sector are observed regardless the gender of the employee. Once comparing women to the median employee, a sizeable incidence of mismatch arises due to negative selection. Specifications using the selection model for the public sector illustrate a systematically higher magnitude of mismatch. Pooled results seem to dominate when women seen in the male labor market or in a restricted subsample. Finally, the map of occupations in mismatch supports that the public sector is more attractive as a waiting room for highly-qualified graduates. They queue less time until they find a good job. Hence, policy implications regarding the allocation of jobs for women may arise.
EBES & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has opened the event together with EBES Vice President Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin. The event was warmly welcomed by the Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business, UNED, Madrid, Spain, Alberto A. Alvarez Lopez. (See below, Alvarez right, Zimmermann, left.)
The opening was followed by a plenary session on publishing in research journals with Marco Vivarelli, Jonathan Batten and Klaus F. Zimmermann.
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: School closures during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 forced countries to swiftly adopt distance learning, with uncertain effects on education inequalities. Using PISA 2018 data from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, we find that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses that, everything else equal, range from 70 percent of a school year in the United Kingdom to 50 percent in Italy. Similar results are found by considering days of absence from school. In both approaches, the distribution of cognitive losses is associated with countries’ educational systems. In the longer run, students who cannot learn remotely are more likely to end their education early and repeat grades. The two outcomes strongly reinforce each other in Spain, Germany and Italy. Results – robust to different specifications and the imputation of missing data – imply that countries must enhance e-learning and support disadvantaged students, but tune these measures to the characteristics of their educational systems.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that for immigrants to Australia self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labor force participation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Zhiming Cheng, Ben Wang, Lucy Taksa & Max Tani
Author Abstract: We use the panel data from the Building a New Life in Australia survey to examine the relationships between proficiency in English and labour market outcomes among humanitarian migrants. Having better general or speaking skills in English is certainly associated with a higher propensity for participation in the labour force and getting a job. However, we also find that, compared to other domains of English proficiency, such as listening, reading and writing, proficiency in English speaking skills has been the least improved domain for humanitarian migrants’ who have participated in an English training program. Our paper explores the channels leading to these outcomes, finding that self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labour force participation. We also find that self-efficacy, general health and indicative serious mental illness partially mediate the relationship between better English proficiency and the chance of getting a job.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds growing financial concerns among university students in Turkey about social and economic welfare.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Despite little to no academic attention, widespread perception of the welfare state policies is a critical aspect of its evaluation, existence and the validity processes; especially that amongst youth and the new generations. This paper discusses welfare or the quality of life perceptions in Turkey and in particular the university students’ economic and social welfare concerns. The paper is based upon survey outcomes from two different cities’ university students, across Turkey; and analyzes the Turkish university students’ current welfare, happiness, contentment with life and the future financial wellness perceptions. We employ the standard chi-square test of independence to test our hypotheses. The research aims to contribute to the efforts towards a roadmap regarding the socio-economic policies to be implemented for the future of Turkey. The paper finds growing financial concerns among university students in terms of social and economic welfare. This is despite the recent economic, social and cultural transformation in modern Turkey. Meanwhile, the latest pandemic is likely to have deteriorated these perceptions. This research, meanwhile, is a worthy analysis to understand contentment regarding the current economic outlook, as well as the concerns and confidence in terms of financial future and wellness. Understanding these perceptions may potentially help in carving the middle and long-term national social and economic policies.
EBES and GLO are partner organizations. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES. EBES & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann will open the event together with EBES Vice President Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin. Zimmermann will also chair a panel session on publishing in research journals.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics suggests that children may cause unhappiness because of challenging family finances.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7Z4b GLO Discussion Paper No. 561 – freeDownload PDF
GLO Fellows David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark
Danny Blanchflower
Andrew Clark
Author Abstract: The common finding of a zero or negative correlation between the presence of children and parental well-being continues to generate research interest. We consider international data, including well over one million observations on Europeans from 11 years of Eurobarometer surveys. We first replicate this negative finding, both in the overall data and then for most different marital statuses. Children are expensive: controlling for financial difficulties turns our estimated child coefficients positive. We argue that difficulties paying the bills explain the pattern of existing results by parental education and income and by country income and social support. Last, we underline that not all children are the same, with stepchildren commonly having a more negative correlation with well-being than children from the current relationship.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 25K journal downloads & over 70 Google Scholar cites as of October 10, 2020.
A new GLO Discussion Paperanalyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers in Portugal.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Exploring a rich matched employer-employee data set over the 1998-2012 period and a novel measure of educational mismatch, this study analyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers. The data show that more than 50 percent of the employed in the private sector in Portugal experienced a job mismatch at the moment of being hired. According to the statistical measure based on the flows of newly hired workers, in the period under scrutiny overeducation is decreasing and undereducation is increasing, indicating that labour market demand is keeping pace with the rise in educational attainment of the Portuguese population. The results reveal that the wage differential between adequately matched workers and mismatched workers decreases considerably once worker and firm unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. In fact, worker permanent heterogeneity explains two-thirds of the overducated wage penalty and three-fourths of the undereducated wage premium, indicating that the undereducated seem to correspond to a higher-ability group of employees, while the overeducated seem to correspond to a lower-ability group of workers. Heterogeneity in firm paying policies also play an important role in explaining the wage gap of newly hired mismatched workers. Finally, the results also indicate that the wages of individuals in the beginning of their labour market career are the most affected by a job mismatch.
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on October 1, 2020 by Alfonso Flores-Lagunes on The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans. Below find a report, the video of the seminar and the presentation slides.
Announcement/forthcoming seminar: November 5, 2020:London/UKat 1-2 pm Ira Gang, Rutgers University and GLO Topic: To be announced. Registration details will be provided in time.
Report
The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans
GLO Virtual Seminar on October 1, 2020 Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Syracuse University and GLO Presentation slides and video of the seminar.
Study finds significant and relevant long-term effects for volunteers.
Based on a joint paper with Xintong Wang and Carlos A. Flores on “The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis”, forthcoming.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsdemonstrates how to use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, a hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 1/2020. Free Readlink – Download PDF GLO Discussion Paper No. 630, 2020
GLO Fellow Domenico Depalo
Author Abstract: In this paper I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information is relevant for the policy maker, to make decisions, and for the public, to adopt appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias I use partial identification to derive these quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values, or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions, but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than before 2020. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from Covid-19 are between 0.1% and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed for long time. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4. PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00800-7 PDF free accessible.
A new GLO Discussion Paperdevelops and applies a new econometric identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization with problematic findings for the reform.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in- discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that access to finance affects employment growth in small and medium-sized enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In the past decade inclusive growth, that is job-rich growth, has topped the policy agenda in developing countries. This paper investigates how the access to finance affects employment in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. It first presents a model where firm creation requires entrepreneurial search and paying the start-up costs, while the firm’s size in terms of employment depends on the access to credit. Under the financial market imperfections, access to credit can be a binding constraint on firm entry and employment even when the banks have sufficient liquidity. Using an impact evaluation-based approach on firm-level data from 42 African countries, we show that SMEs with access to formal financing create more jobs than firms without access, with employment in firms having access to more affordable and larger loans growing the fastest. The impact of access to finance is stronger for firms in manufacturing than in services, pointing to sectoral targeting of finance as a possible policy supporting industrialization.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows for Turkey that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile, but no such results are obtained for men.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The paper aims to identify the effect of non-standard employment on wages in the Turkish labor market across gender and decompose the gap to understand the role of endowments and returns in generating the earning differences. Our findings show that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile but no such results are obtained for men. Besides, females with standard jobs in Turkey earn more than men, however, the opposite holds for females in non-standard positions. Also, a big part of the gender pay gap is attributable to returns, especially at the lower end of the distribution. Women in low-paid and atypical jobs face larger pay gaps, and the role of unexplained component suggests they are discriminated. The distinct impact of non-standard employment on men and women suggest that policies geared towards labor market flexibility should take gender perspective into account.
A new GLO Discussion Papercontributes to the rising literature on the impact of natural light on economic behavior. Using Daylight Saving Time as a natural experiment it finds that the increase of light has reduced crime in Montevideo strongly.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde
Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Jacob Arendt
Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up the entry into regular jobs for males, but that they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. The long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We show that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough, even after they emigrate to a modern industrial economy where individual productivity depends on education rather than physical characteristics. The result rests on the argument that, if efficiency requires the more productive spouse to specialize in raising income, and the less productive one in raising children, irrespective of gender, an efficient domestic equilibrium will be implemented by a costlessly enforceable pre-marital contract stipulating that the husband should do the former and the wife the latter. A contract may not be needed, however, if time spent with children gives direct utility, because an efficient equilibrium may then be characterized by little or no division of labor.
Featured image: georg-arthur-pflueger-0PL-g-9fxgs-unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Sweden a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020; forthcoming 2021 in the Journal of Population Economics.
Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age eighteen. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
Featured image: Photo-by-Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the hypothesis that trade can be an engine of growth using data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. It finds that export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought any effects on growth.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper empirically tests the hypothesis that trade can act as an engine of growth using panel data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional integration agreement (RIA) organization, the central objective of whose formation was the need to accelerate, foster, and encourage the region’s growth. Our results indicate that during the period covered by this study (2005-2017), export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought about any effects on growth perhaps because of lack of full establishment of the primary instruments for achieving its central objective. These results lead to three conclusions. Firstly, trade through export expansion seems to be a better solution for SADC for achieving the central objective of its formation. Secondly, more openness to trade seems to jeopardize growth. Finally, the formation of SADC has not yet brought about the expected gains from a RIA. In this context, we recommend that policymakers should consider adopting measures aimed at supporting increased trade through promoting export expansion, achieving strong absorption of negative chocks that usually result from trade, and exploring the possibility of establishing all the planned primary instruments for achieving SADC’s central objective.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the direct and indirect impacts the extractive industries have on economic growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are rich in natural resources and in most of them their extractive industries extract and export natural resources with little industrial processing. This study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts that the extractive industries in the SADC countries have on their economic growth. The study also examines the hypothesis of economic convergence. Its empirical results are based on data from the 11 founding SADC countries covering the period 2004-17. The results show that despite the process of integration, the SADC economies do not converge in terms of per capita incomes. The extractive industries have direct negative impacts on the countries’ economic growth thus providing evidence of a resource curse. Extractive industries in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have positive direct impacts on their economic growth. However, in terms of indirect impacts, the extractive industries do not have any impact on GDP because their impact on manufacturing, human capital, public expenditure, economic openness, exchange rate, and inflation is insignificant. The study also shows that GDP, the colonial path followed by these countries, and inflation have a negative but insignificant impact on extractive industries, while manufacturing, government expenditure, and economic openness have positive but insignificant impacts in all SADC countries. Human capital and exchange rate are the only factors that have both significant positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively.
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the optimal policy response to Covid-19 depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We address the problem of finding the optimal lockdown and reopening policy during a pandemic like COVID-19 for a social planner who prioritizes health over the economy. Agents are connected through a fuzzy network of contacts, and the planner’s objective is to determine the policy that contains the spread of infection below a tolerable incidence level, and that maximizes the present discounted value of real income, in that order of priority. We show theoretically that the planner’s problem has a unique solution. The optimal policy depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence. Using simulations, we apply these theoretical findings to: (i) quantify the trade-off between the economic cost of the pandemic and the infection incidence allowed by the social planner, and show how this trade-off depends on network configuration; (ii) understand the correlation between different measures of network centrality and individual lockdown probability, and derive implications for the optimal design of surveys on social distancing behavior and network structure; and (iii) analyze how segregation induces differential health and economic dynamics in minority and majority populations, also illustrating the crucial role of patient zero in these dynamics.
A new GLO Discussion Paper indicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distributionsuggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using an online survey of Australian residents, we elicit the potential impacts of COVID-19 related labour market shocks on a validated measure of financial wellbeing. Experiencing a reduction in hours and earnings, entering into unemployment or having to file for unemployment benefits during the pandemic are strongly and significantly associated with decreases in financial wellbeing of 29% or 18 points on the financial wellbeing scale of 0-100, despite various government measures to reduce such effects. Unconditional quantile regression analyses indicate that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution. Counterfactual distribution regressions indicate a shifting of the financial wellbeing distribution leftwards brought on by those suffering any of the above-mentioned labour market shocks, indicating potential significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.
2021 Kuznets Prize Awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, & Wei Shias announced by the office of the Journal of Population Economics.
Yun Qiu (Jinan University), Xi Chen (Yale University), and Wei Shi (Jinan University) will receive the 2021 Kuznets Prize for their article (please click title below for OPEN ACCESS)
which was published in the Journal of Population Economics (2020), 33(4), pp. 1127–1172. The annual prize honors the best article published in the Journal of Population Economics in the previous year.
The award will be given to the authors during a special public journal event in the Fall of 2020.
Biographical Abstracts
Yun Qiu is an assistant professor at Institute for Economic and Social Research at Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). She obtained a Ph.D. in Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics from the Ohio State University. She is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Yun uses applied econometric techniques to conduct research in areas focused on (1) understanding the health and productivity impacts of extreme weather and air pollution in China; (2) characterizing the influencing factors of the spread of COVID-19 and its socioeconomic impacts; (3) valuing coastal adaptation strategies and urban amenities.
Xi Chen is an associate professor of Health Policy and Economics at Yale University. He obtained a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Cornell University. His research endeavors focus on improving public policies on population aging, life course health, and global health systems. Dr. Chen is a consultant at the United Nations Institutions, Fellow at the Global Labor Organization (GLO), former President of the China Health Policy and Management Society, and Butler-Williams Scholar at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Dr. Chen’s work has been published in prestigious economics, science and medical journals, recognized through numerous awards, and widely covered in media.
Wei Shi is an associate professor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). His research interests include topics in econometrics, real estate economics, and applied microeconomics. His current research focuses on panel data models with spatial interactions and multidimensional heterogeneities, peer effects models, and applications of spatial econometric models. He is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the Ohio State University.
Yun Qiu
Xi Chen
Wei Shi
Abstract of the Winning Paper
“This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.”
About the Kuznets Prize
The Journal of Population Economics awards the ‘Kuznets Prize’ for the best paper published in the Journal of Population Economicsin the previous year. Starting from 2014 the Prize has been awarded annually. Papers are judged by the Editors of the Journal.
Simon Kuznets, a pioneer in population economics, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University and the 1971 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, died on July 10, 1985. Professor Kuznets was born 1901 in Pinsk, Belarus, and came to the United States in 1922. He earned his Bachelor of Science in 1923, a Master of Arts degree in 1924 and his doctorate in 1926, all from Columbia University. During World War II he was Associate Director of the Bureau of Planning and Statistics on the War Production Board, and he served on the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1927 to 1960. Mr. Kuznets was a faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania for 24 years and Professor of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University from 1954 until he joined Harvard University in 1960. He retired in 1971 and was given the title of George F. Baker Professor Emeritus of Economics. He was a former president of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association.
Previous Winners
The Kuznets Prize (please click titles for READ LINKS FOR FREE) has previously been awarded to:
2020: Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley), Chandan Kumar Jha (Le Moyne College, Madden School of Business), and Sudipta Sarangi (Virginia Tech) for their article “Ancestral ecological endowments and missing women,“ Journal of Population Economics (2019), 32(4): pp. 1101-1123.
2016: Loren Brandt (University of Toronto), Aloysius Siow (University of Toronto), and Hui Wang (Peking University) for their article “Compensating for unequal parental investments in schooling,” Journal of Population Economics 28: 423-462.
Period 2010-2012: Richard W. Evans (Brigham Young University), Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University) and Zhong Zhao (Renmin University) for their article “The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births“, Journal of Population Economics 23: 1-36.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics challenges the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7sJK
Author Abstract: This study estimates the causal effect of paid vacation on health. Using register data on the universe of central government employees in Sweden, I exploit an age-based rule stipulated in the collective agreement covering these employees. I achieve identification by combining a regression discontinuity with a difference-in-differences design to control for time-invariant differences between consecutive birth cohorts and isolate the true effect at two separate discontinuities at ages 30 and 40. The main results indicate that an increase of three paid vacation days at age 30 and four days at age 40 do not cause significant changes in health, as proxied by visits to specialized outpatient care, inpatient admissions, and long-term sick leaves. These findings challenge the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates for the Italian case the effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19 and the implications for the future.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano
Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible. Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 541, 2020
GLO Fellows Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano and GLO Affiliate Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini
Author Abstract: In the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home (WFH) became of great importance for a large share of employees since it represents the only option to both continue working and minimise the risk of virus exposure. Uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and future contagion waves even led companies to view WFH as a ‘new normal’ way of working. Based on influence function regression methods, this paper explores the potential consequences in the labour income distribution related to a long-lasting increase in WFH feasibility among Italian employees. Results show that a positive shift in WFH feasibility would be associated with an increase in average labour income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in the opportunity to WFH would favour male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. However, this ‘forced innovation’ would benefit more employees living in provinces have been more affected by the novel coronavirus. WFH thus risks exacerbating pre-existing inequalities in the labour market, especially if it will not be adequately regulated. As a consequence, this study suggests that policies aimed at alleviating inequality, like income support measures (in the short run) and human capital interventions (in the long run), should play a more important compensating role in the future.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4. PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.
All the presentation in this series are based on the projects that GLO-VirtYS program scholars completed as part of their program participation.
September 17th Program
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Satyendra Kumar Gupta, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy and GLO Affiliate Irrigation and Culture: Gender Roles and Women’s Rights (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Almas Heshmati)
Kelly Hyde, University of Pittsburgh and GLO Affiliate The Regressive Costs of Drinking Water Contaminant Avoidance (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Anurag Sharma)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova. Full video of the event. For more information about both speakers and their paper abstracts.
DP of the Month September
