Are new immigrants causing persistent voting effects? The lead article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economics suggests that the voting effects are short-term only.

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Read free the Lead Article of issue 1 (2020) of the Journal of Population Economics :

Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip
Eugenio Levi, Rama Dasi Mariani & Fabrizio Patriarca
Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 33 (2020), Issue 1 (January), pp. 1-32.

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GLO Fellows Eugenio Levi, Rama Dasi Mariani & Fabrizio Patriarca

Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 364, 2019.
Background paper of GLO Research for Policy Note No. 3, 2019.

Complete issue 1, 2020 of the Journal of Population Economics, read access to all articles.

Author Abstract: In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the causal effect of immigrant presence on anti-immigrant votes is a short-run effect. For this purpose, we consider a distributed lag model and adapt the standard instrumental variable approach proposed by Altonji and Card (1991) to a dynamic framework. The evidence from our case study, votes for the UK Independent Party (Ukip) in recent European elections, supports our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find that this effect is robust to differences across areas in terms of population density and socioeconomic characteristics, and it is only partly explained by integration issues.

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