Category Archives: Article

Sexual Orientation and Earnings. A Meta-Analysis 2012-2020. New paper by GLO Fellow Nick Drydakis published ONLINE FIRST & WITH FREE READ ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

The meta-analysis provided in a new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that gay men earned less than heterosexual men; lesbian women earned more than heterosexual women, while bisexual men earned less than heterosexual men.

Sexual Orientation and Earnings. A Meta-Analysis 2012-2020.

by Drydakis, Nick

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cpeNT

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Nick Drydakis

Author Abstract: This meta-analysis utilizes 24 papers published between 2012-2020 that focus on earnings differences by sexual orientation. The papers cover the period between 1991 and 2018, and countries in Europe, North America and Australia. The meta-analysis indicates that gay men earned less than heterosexual men. Lesbian women earned more than heterosexual women, while bisexual men earned less than heterosexual men. Bisexual women earned less than heterosexual women. According to the meta-analysis, in data sets after 2010, gay men and bisexual men and women continue to experience earnings penalties, while lesbian women continue to experience earnings premiums. Τhe meta-regression estimates indicate relationships between study characteristics and the estimated earnings effects for sexual minorities. For instance, regions, sexual minority data set sizes, and earnings classifications influence the outcomes. The persistence of earnings penalties for gay men and bisexual men and women in the face of anti-discrimination policies represents a cause for concern and indicates the need for comprehensive legislation and workplace guidelines to guarantee that people receive fair pay and not experience any form of workplace inequality simply because of their sexual orientation.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 862, 2021 (Download PDF)

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

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The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Skipping the doctor: evidence from a case with extended self-certification of paid sick leave. New paper by Bruno Ferman, Gaute Torsvik & Kjell Vaage published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

Norway extended to workers the right to self-certify sickness absence from work. A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics rules out large absence increases after the reform but provides evidence that the policy change caused a reduction in absence for female workers.

Skipping the doctor: evidence from a case with extended self-certification of paid sick leave

by Bruno Ferman, Gaute Torsvik & Kjell Vaage

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS: PDF

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Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a policy reform in a municipality in Norway that extended to workers the right to self-certify sickness absence from work. After the reform, workers were no longer obliged to obtain a certificate from a physician to receive sickness benefits. They could call in sick directly to their line leader and had to engage in a counselling program organized by the employer. To estimate the effect of this reform, we contrast the change in sickness absence among employees who were granted the extended right to self-certify absence with absence among employees who had to obtain a physician’s certificate to be entitled to sickness benefits. We use both a standard difference-in-differences method and the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of the reform. We can rule out large positive effects on absence after the reform, with strong evidence that the policy change actually resulted in a reduction in absence for female workers.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

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The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life. New paper by Bruno Arpino, Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics presents evidence to support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.

I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life

by Bruno Arpino, Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS: PDF

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Author Abstract: Life-course studies have shown that early-life conditions predict health and socio-economic status in adult life. This study analyzes whether experiencing a traumatic event in childhood, i.e., the Second World War (WW2), affects subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We rely on a representative sample of European adults who were differentially exposed to WW2 during childhood as a result of their date and place of birth. Results show that exposure to WW2 increases SSPs, with socio-economic and health characteristics not playing a mediating role. War exposure also counterbalances the adverse effects of health impairments on SSPs, but it does not affect health outcomes per se. This fact, jointly with low mortality rates of the cohort under investigation, suggests that selective mortality and post-traumatic stress are not the main channels. Instead, the results support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF




The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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The impact of repeated mass antigen testing for COVID-19 on the prevalence of the disease. New paper by Martin Kahanec, Lukáš Lafférs & Bernhard Schmidpeter published ONLINE FIRST & WITH OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics has shown that this had reduced infections substantially.

The impact of repeated mass antigen testing for COVID-19 on the prevalence of the disease

by Martin Kahanec, Lukáš Lafférs & Bernhard Schmidpeter

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS: PDF

Martin Kahanec
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Author Abstract: In the absence of effective vaccination, mass testing and quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could help to mitigate pandemics and allow economies to stay open. We investigate the effects of repeated mass testing on the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using data from the first ever nationwide rapid antigen testing implemented in Slovakia in autumn 2020. After the first round of testing, only districts above an ex ante unknown threshold of test positivity were re-tested. Comparing districts above and below the threshold, we provide evidence that repeated mass antigen testing can temporarily reduce the number of new infections. Our results suggest that mass testing coupled with the quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could be an effective tool in mitigating pandemics. For lasting effects, re-testing at regular intervals would likely be necessary.

Featured image: Mufid-Majnun-on-Unsplash

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF




The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Aging and automation in economies with search frictions. New paper by Xiaomeng Zhang, Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu published ONLINE FIRST & WITH FREE READ ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible shows that an increase in life expectancy raises the level as well as the inequality of income.

Aging and automation in economies with search frictions

by Xiaomeng Zhang, Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/coNTX

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Author Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of an increase in life expectancy on the level and the distribution of income in the presence of skill heterogeneity and automation. It shows analytically that an increase in life expectancy induces the replacement of low-skilled workers by automation capital and high-skilled workers. Moreover, it raises the skill premium and has an ambiguous effect on total income. A simulation exercise, based on US data, shows that an increase in life expectancy raises the level as well as the inequality of income. We consider redistributive policies that can mitigate some of the adverse effects of an increase in life expectancy for low-skilled workers.

Featured image: Andy-Kelly-on-Unsplash

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF




The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

The effect of compulsory schooling laws and child labor restrictions on fertility: evidence from the early twentieth century: New paper by Yannay Shanan published ONLINE FIRST & WITH FREE READ ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that changes in legislation across time and between US states during the early twentieth century make parents chose to have fewer children in response to the constraints imposed.

The effect of compulsory schooling laws and child labor restrictions on fertility: evidence from the early twentieth century

by Yannay Shanan

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cn2UZ

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Author Abstract: This paper uses census data to examine the impact of child labor restrictions imposed by compulsory schooling laws and child labor regulation on fertility. By exploiting variation induced by changes in legislation across time and between US states during the early twentieth century, I show that parents chose to have fewer children in response to the constraints imposed on the labor supply of their potential children and the increase in their expected quality. My findings suggest that compulsory schooling laws and child labor regulation contributed to the demographic transition in the US and provide additional empirical support for the notion that financial incentives play a role in determining household fertility decisions.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF




The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & WITH FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate in Chile.

Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes

by Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cnd2y

GLO Fellow Francisco Gallego

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Author Abstract: This paper uses international commodity prices and local natural resource endowments as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in local Chilean economic conditions to study how these shocks impact fertility behavior of families in a small, emerging open economy where non-marital fertility is common but parental obligations are not well enforced. We find that these commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate. We argue that these results are consistent with most women experiencing an income effect and a limited substitution effect from commodity booms. This is confirmed by looking at groups that would have experienced a larger income than substitution effect: higher-order births, births within marital relationships, and those by mothers who do not experience an increase in their employment probability respond more strongly to these commodity booms.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Augusto Cerqua, Roberta Di Stefano, Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible demonstrate for Italy that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official statistical method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of local mortality.

Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

by Augusto Cerqua, Roberta Di Stefano, Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

GLO Fellow Marco Letta

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Author Abstract: Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Abel Brodeur, Idaliya Grigoryeva & Lamis Kattan

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for the USA that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after stay-at-home orders are implemented.

Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust

by Abel Brodeur, Idaliya Grigoryeva & Lamis Kattan

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
ACCESS. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cmSoY

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Author Abstract: A clear understanding of community response to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the determinants of implementation and compliance with stay-at-home orders in the USA, focusing on trust and social capital. Using cell phone data measuring changes in non-essential trips and average distance traveled, we find that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after the stay-at-home orders are implemented, with larger effects for more stringent orders. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on post-order compliance is especially large for confidence in the press and governmental institutions, and relatively smaller for confidence in medicine and in science.

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Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

School closures and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsustsui.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Japan that during Covid-19 school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and parents with different educational backgrounds.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

School closures and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

by Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsustsui

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

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Author Abstract: The spread of the novel coronavirus disease caused schools in Japan to close to cope with the pandemic. In response to the school closures, parents of students were obliged to care for their children during the daytime, when children usually were at school. Did the increase in the burden of childcare influence parents’ mental health? Based on short panel data from mid-March to mid-April 2020, we explore how school closures influenced the mental health of parents with school-aged children. Using a fixed-effects model, we find that school closures led to mothers of students suffering from worse mental health compared to other females, while the fathers’ mental health did not differ from that of other males. This tendency is only observed for less-educated mothers who had children attending primary school, not for those with children attending junior high school nor for more-educated mothers. The contribution of this paper is showing that school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and parents with different educational backgrounds.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: lessons from Portugal. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Joop Hartog, Pedro Raposo & GLO Fellow Hugo Reis.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Portugal’s wage gap between vocational and general secondary education no support for either the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles or the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Hugo Reis

Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: Lessons from Portugal

by Joop Hartog, Pedro Raposo & Hugo Reis

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

GLO Fellow Hugo Reis

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Author Abstract: We document and analyse the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education in Portugal between 1994 and 2013. As Portuguese workers have been educated in different school systems, we have to distinguish between birth cohorts. Analysing the wage gaps within cohorts, we find no support for either the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles or the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career. We discover that the lifecycle wage profiles have shifted over time. We link the pattern of shifting cohort profiles to changes in the school system and in the structure of labour demand. We conclude that assessing the relative value of vocational education requires assessing how the vocational curriculum responds to changes in economic structure and technology. We show that the decline in assortative matching between workers and firms has benefited vocationally educated workers.

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Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian

OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Daniel Graeber, Johannes Seebauer & GLO Fellow Alexander S. Kritikos.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Germany that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. No comparable gender gap among employees is found.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Alexander Kritikos

COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed

by Daniel Graeber, Alexander S. Kritikos and Johannes Seebauer

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

GLO Fellow Alexander S. Kritikos

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Author Abstract: We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic and the government-mandated measures to contain its spread affect the self-employed — particularly women — in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. We do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, e.g., the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
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Quantity and quality of childcare and children’s educational outcomes. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Jo Blanden, Emilia Del Bono, Kirstine Hansen & Birgitta Rabe.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible estimates the effects of an increase in free pre-school education in England on child development which were found to be small.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Quantity and quality of childcare and children’s educational outcomes

by Jo Blanden, Emilia Del Bono, Kirstine Hansen & Birgitta Rabe

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

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Author Abstract: Policy-makers wanting to support child development can choose to adjust the quantity or quality of publicly funded universal pre-school. To assess the impact of such changes, we estimate the effects of an increase in free pre-school education in England of about 3.5 months at age 3 on children’s school achievement at age 5. We exploit date-of-birth discontinuities that create variation in the length and starting age of free pre-school using administrative school records linked to nursery characteristics. Estimated effects are small overall, but the impact of the additional term is substantially larger in settings with the highest inspection quality rating but not in settings with highly qualified staff. Estimated effects fade out by age 7.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

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Under- and over-investment in education: the role of locked-in fertility. New paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Masao Nakagawa, Asuka Oura & Yoshiaki Sugimoto.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible argues that, in the presence of idiosyncratic ability shocks after childbirth, irreversible fertility decisions distort the resource allocation between the quantity and quality of children.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Under- and over-investment in education: the role of locked-in fertility

by Masao Nakagawa, Asuka Oura & Yoshiaki Sugimoto

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS and PDF.

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Author Abstract: This research argues that, in the presence of idiosyncratic ability shocks after childbirth, irreversible fertility decisions distort the resource allocation between the quantity and quality of children. In underdeveloped environments, where family size is locked into large levels, education investment places a heavy financial burden on households, which deprives some competent children of learning opportunities. In contrast, in more developed environments, family size is locked into smaller levels, which facilitates education investment even for some children with low aptitude. A redistributive policy to mitigate the distortion is proposed for each stage.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Analyzing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments. New paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Henk-Wim de Boer and Egbert L. W. Jongen.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK provides robust evidence for the Netherlands that policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labor supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Analysing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments

by Henk-Wim de Boer and Egbert L. W. Jongen

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cloOs

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Author Abstract: We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in an analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. We first estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next, we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Housing market regulations and strategic divorce propensity in China. New paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by James Alm, Weizheng Lai and Xun Li.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK provides robust evidence that housing market regulations in China significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce of married couples.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Housing market regulations and strategic divorce propensity in China

by James Alm, Weizheng Lai and Xun Li

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cloDS

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Author Abstract: In China’s regulated housing markets, a married couple may choose strategically to divorce in order to purchase more houses and/or purchase with more favorable financial conditions. Our study examines the propensity for strategic divorce induced by housing market regulations in China. To overcome the difficulty of using conventional divorce data to distinguish between a “true” divorce and a strategic (or a “fake”) divorce, we design an identification strategy using data on internet searches for divorce- and marriage-related keywords in 32 Chinese major cities from 2009 through 2016. Our difference-in-differences estimates provide robust evidence that housing market regulations significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce. Our results also show that the increase in the propensity for strategic divorce is weaker in cities with higher male–female ratios and with stronger Confucian ideologies. These findings point to the role that housing market regulations play in distorting a family’s choices, as well as to the importance for policymakers to consider unintended impacts of regulations.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Heaven can wait: future tense and religiosity. New paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Astghik Mavisakalyan, Yashar Tarverdi and Clas Weber.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK argues that the rewards and punishments that incentivize religious behavior are more effective for speakers of languages without inflectional future tense.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Heaven can wait: future tense and religiosity

by Astghik Mavisakalyan, Yashar Tarverdi and Clas Weber

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/clovY

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Author Abstract: This paper identifies a new source of differences in religiosity: the type of future tense marking in language. We argue that the rewards and punishments that incentivise religious behaviour are more effective for speakers of languages without inflectional future tense. Consistent with this prediction, we show that speakers of languages without inflectional future tense are more likely to be religious and to take up the short-term costs associated with religiosity. What is likely to drive this behaviour, according to our results, is the relatively greater appeal of the religious rewards to these individuals. Our analysis is based on within-country regressions comparing individuals with identical observable characteristics who speak a different language.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 3, July 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3, 2021:
The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News
by Maxim Ananyev, Michael Poyker and Yuan Tian
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Culture and mental health resilience in times of COVID-19. New paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Annie Tubadji.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS shows that past consumption of culture is associated with higher happiness levels during crises.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Culture and mental health resilience in times of COVID-19

by Annie Tubadji

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS

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Author Abstract: This paper aims to clarify the role of culture as a public good that serves to preserve mental health. It tests the evolutionary hypothesis that cultural consumption triggers a microeconomic mechanism for the self-defense of mental health from uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a natural experiment of cultural consumption under increased uncertainty. Using primary data from a pilot survey conducted online during the pandemic and applying Probit and Heckman selection models, the study analyzes levels of happiness and propensity to help others. The results suggest that past consumption of culture is associated with higher happiness levels during crises. Moreover, spontaneous cultural practices (such as group singing) during times of uncertainty are associated with an increase in the pro-social propensity to help others. These findings highlight culture as a tool for promoting mental health at the micro level and social capital resilience at the aggregate level.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Featured image: Photo-by-Elijah-Hail-on-Unsplash

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Increasing longevity and life satisfaction: Is there a catch to living longer? New paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Janina Nemitz.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS shows that the life satisfaction of elderly people in West Germany declined; they are experiencing their remaining lifetime in states of dissatisfaction.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Increasing longevity and life satisfaction: Is there a catch to living longer?

by Janina Nemitz

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
OPEN ACCESS

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Author Abstract: Human longevity is rising rapidly all over the world, but are longer lives more satisfied lives? This study suggests that the answer might be no. Despite a substantial increase in months of satisfying life, people’s overall life satisfaction declined between 1985 and 2011 in West Germany due to substantial losses of life satisfaction in old age. When compared to 1985, in 2011, elderly West Germans were, on average, much less satisfied throughout their last five years of life. Moreover, they spent a larger proportion of their remaining lifetime in states of dissatisfaction, on average. Two important mechanisms that contributed to this satisfaction decline were health and social isolation. Using a broad variety of sensitivity tests, I show that these results are robust to a large set of alternative explanations.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Brothers increase women’s gender conformity. New article published OPEN ACCESS ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Anne Ardila Brenøe.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS finds for Denmark that women with a second-born brother acquire more traditional gender roles as measured through their choice of occupation and partner.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Brothers increase women’s gender conformity

by Anne Ardila Brenøe

Published OPEN ACCESS ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

Author Abstract: I examine how one central aspect of the family environment—sibling sex composition—affects women’s gender conformity. Using Danish administrative data, I causally estimate the effect of having a second-born brother relative to a sister for first-born women. I show that women with a brother acquire more traditional gender roles as measured through their choice of occupation and partner. This results in a stronger response to motherhood in labor market outcomes. As a relevant mechanism, I provide evidence of increased gender-specialized parenting in families with mixed-sex children. Finally, I find persistent effects on the next generation of girls.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Back to work or stay at home? Family policies and maternal employment in Finland. Published OPEN ACCESS ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Eva Österbacka & Tapio Räsänen.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS finds for Finland that higher private day care allowances have no effect on employment while higher home care allowances increase the length of home care.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Back to work or stay at home? Family policies and maternal employment in Finland.

by Eva Österbacka & Tapio Räsänen

Published OPEN ACCESS ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

Author Abstract: The employment effects of family policies depend on the mother’s labor market attachment and on the age of the child. We study the effects of child home care (cash-for-care) and private day care allowances on mothers’ return to employment after childbirth. Our identification strategy exploits changes in municipal-level subsidies. We find that higher private day care allowances have no effect while higher home care allowances increase the length of home care. A 100-euro higher level of home care allowance prolongs home care by 2–3 months, on average. The home care allowance combined with low labor market attachment and low earnings potential pre-birth delay the return to employment. However, the effect of the allowance diminishes over time. Higher subsidies have no impact by the time a child turns two. Reductions in subsidies stimulate a faster return to employment.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News. Now published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS documents a harming effect of the Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 742 [pre]

The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox NewsDownload PDF
by
Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael & Tian, Yuan

Published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

GLO Fellow Michael Poyker

Author Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market. New paper published in the Journal of Population Economics by Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READ ACCESS show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number and a decrease in the quality of children in a reasonable model framework and confirms this for post World War II Japan.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market

by Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READ LINK: https://rdcu.be/ci5pw

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Author Abstract: This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio on both the quantity and the quality of children, with a focus on changes in intra-household bargaining power. We first present a theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of conflicting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children and a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a smaller decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970 absent the decrease in the sex ratio.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Short-run and long-run effects of peers from disrupted families. New paper published in the Journal of Population Economics by Ziteng Lei.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READ ACCESS reveals that girls are mostly unaffected by peers from disrupted families, while boys exhibit more school problems in adolescence and higher arrest probabilities, less stable jobs, and higher probabilities of suffering from financial stress as young adults.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Short-run and long-run effects of peers from disrupted families

by Ziteng Lei

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READ LINK: https://rdcu.be/ciWuz

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Author Abstract: I study the short-run and long-run effects of exposure to peers from disrupted families in adolescence. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data, I find that girls are mostly unaffected by peers from disrupted families, while boys exposed to more peers from disrupted families exhibit more school problems in adolescence and higher arrest probabilities, less stable jobs, and higher probabilities of suffering from financial stress as young adults. These results suggest negative effects on non-cognitive skills but no effect on cognitive skills, as measured by academic performance. The dramatic increase in family disruption in the USA should thus receive more attention, as the intergenerational mobility and inequality consequences could be larger than anticipated as a result of classroom spillovers.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Saving lives and reducing harm? Health and crime impacts of daylight saving, newly studied in two articles of the Journal of Population Economics by Emiliano Tealde & Adam Cook.

Europe decided to abolish daylight saving time in 2021, since the save energy impact is debatable; but so far concrete actions remained elusive. Some evidence should not be overlooked. Based on natural experiments: Stratified demographic analyses for Indiana/USA indicate that daylight saving time had reduced mortality among males, females, and whites, but only among those aged 65 years and older. For Montevideo/Uruguay research identified a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery. Two articles in the Journal of Population Economics take up these issues.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

The Unequal Impact of Natural Light on Crime – Download PDF
by
Tealde, Emiliano

NOW Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics. FREE READ LINK: https://rdcu.be/ciWkX

GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde

Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.

Saving lives: the 2006 expansion of daylight saving in Indiana
by Adam Cook

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READ LINK: https://rdcu.be/ciWlD

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Author Abstract: Using data provided by the Indiana State Department of Vital Statistics, this study examines the mortality effects of daylight saving time observance using the April 2006 expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana as a natural experiment. The expansion of daylight saving time to all Indiana counties lowered the average mortality rate in the treatment counties during the months in which daylight saving time was observed. Stratified demographic analyses indicate that daylight saving time reduced mortality among males, females, and whites, but only among those aged 65 years and older. Specific-cause analysis indicates that daylight saving time lowered mortality primarily via reduced cancer mortality. The results of this study suggest a novel solar UVB-vitamin D mechanism could be responsible for the reduction in treatment county mortality following the expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.: New paper published OPEN ACCESS freely available ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS free available.

GLO Fellows Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes and Neeraj Kaushal

Author Abstract: Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

Ends;

Danny Blanchflower & Andrew Clark on Lifetime Wellbeing & Family Unhappiness. Two articles in the April issue of the Journal of Population Economics.

Key findings of the two articles are:

  • Blanchflower provides global evidence that the U-shaped happiness-age curve is everywhere.
  • Blanchflower and Clark find that children may cause unhappiness because of challenging family finances.
  • Watch the GLO Virtual Seminar presentation of Danny Blanchflower on Despair, Unhappiness and Age explaining this work. Video of seminar. Report of the event.

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The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration supporting the Journal of Population Economics.

Featured image: Photo-by-Elijah-Hail-on-Unsplash

Danny Blanchflower

Happiness U-shaped Everywhere? Age and Subjective Well-being in 145 Countries

by Blanchflower, David G.

Published April 2021: Journal of Population Economics. Free Readlink. https://rdcu.be/b7kyO

GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower & Research Director GLO

Author Abstract: A large empirical literature has debated the existence of a U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in 145 countries, including 109 developing countries, controlling for education and marital and labor force status, among others, on samples of individuals under the age of 70. The U-shape of the curve is forcefully confirmed, with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50 in separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the findings using such data largely confirm the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the age of the minima has risen over time in Europe and the USA.

Andrew Clark

Children, Unhappiness and Family Finances

by
Blanchflower, David G. & Clark, Andrew E.

Published April 2021: Journal of Population Economics. Free Readlink.
https://rdcu.be/b7Z4b
GLO Fellow Andrew E. Clark, Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics

Author Abstract: The common finding of a zero or negative correlation between the presence of children and parental well-being continues to generate research interest. We consider international data, including well over one million observations on Europeans from 11 years of Eurobarometer surveys. We first replicate this negative finding, both in the overall data and then for most different marital statuses. Children are expensive: controlling for financial difficulties turns our estimated child coefficients positive. We argue that difficulties paying the bills explain the pattern of existing results by parental education and income and by country income and social support. Last, we underline that not all children are the same, with stepchildren commonly having a more negative correlation with well-being than children from the current relationship.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Daylight saving, saving lives and reducing harm? Health and crime impacts newly studied in two articles of the Journal of Population Economics by Adam Cook & Emiliano Tealde.

Europe decided to abolish daylight saving time in 2021, since the save energy impact is debatable; but so far concrete actions remained elusive. Some evidence should not be overlooked. Based on natural experiments: Stratified demographic analyses for Indiana/USA indicate that daylight saving time had reduced mortality among males, females, and whites, but only among those aged 65 years and older. For Montevideo/Uruguay research identified a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery. Two articles in the Journal of Population Economics take up these issues.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 002-Cover-Page-JPopEa.jpg

Saving lives: the 2006 expansion of daylight saving in Indiana

by Adam Cook

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READ LINK.

Author Abstract: Using data provided by the Indiana State Department of Vital Statistics, this study examines the mortality effects of daylight saving time observance using the April 2006 expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana as a natural experiment. The expansion of daylight saving time to all Indiana counties lowered the average mortality rate in the treatment counties during the months in which daylight saving time was observed. Stratified demographic analyses indicate that daylight saving time reduced mortality among males, females, and whites, but only among those aged 65 years and older. Specific-cause analysis indicates that daylight saving time lowered mortality primarily via reduced cancer mortality. The results of this study suggest a novel solar UVB-vitamin D mechanism could be responsible for the reduction in treatment county mortality following the expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 663, 2020

The Unequal Impact of Natural Light on Crime – Download PDF
by
Tealde, Emiliano

Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics. Revised version online soon.

GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde

Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Hyperbolic discounting in an intergenerational model with altruistic parents. New paper published FREE READ ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Jia Cao & Minghao Li.

Hyperbolic utility discounting has emerged as a leading alternative to exponential discounting because it can explain time-inconsistent behaviors. A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics uses hyperbolic discounting in an intergenerational model with altruistic parents to find that in the steady state it decreases fertility, increases human capital investment, and shifts consumption towards younger ages.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Hyperbolic discounting in an intergenerational model with altruistic parents

by Jia Cao & Minghao Li


Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READ LINK.

Author Abstract: Hyperbolic utility discounting has emerged as a leading alternative to exponential discounting because it can explain time-inconsistent behaviors. Intuitively, hyperbolic discounting should play a crucial role in intergenerational models characterized by intertemporal trade-offs. In this paper, we incorporate hyperbolic discounting into a dynamic model in which parents are altruistic towards their children. Agents live for four periods and choose levels of consumption, fertility, investment in their children’s human capital, and bequests to maximize discounted utility. In the steady state, hyperbolic discounting decreases fertility, increases human capital investment, and shifts consumption towards younger ages. These effects are more pronounced in the time-consistent problem (in which agents cannot commit to a course of action) than in the commitment problem, which can be interpreted as realized and intended actions, respectively. The preference-based discrepancy between intended fertility and realized fertility has important implications for the empirical literature that compares the two.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Birth outcomes in hard times among minority ethnic groups. New paper published OPEN ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Veronica Grembi & colleagues.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrants’ newborns in Italy. It finds that the negative effects are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnic group and its related network at the municipal level.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Birth outcomes in hard times among minority ethnic groups
by Paola Bertoli, Veronica Grembi & The Linh Bao Nguyen

GLO Fellow Veronica Grembi

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: Combining a unique dataset of birth records with municipal-level real estate information, we assess the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrants’ newborns in Italy. Health at birth (e.g., low birth weight) of children born to immigrants deteriorated more than health at birth of children born to Italian natives. The negative effects on immigrants are not equally distributed across ethnicities, but rather are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnic group and its related network at the municipal level. Immigrants whose ethnic group is mainly employed in the sectors most affected during the recession suffered the most. Living in a municipality where their ethnic network is organized through more registered immigrant associations mitigates the recession hardship for immigrants. The characteristics of ethnic groups and their organization at the municipal level do not explain the heterogeneous effects on Italian newborns, which confirms the presence of network effects rather than neighborhood effects

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

The effect of the 2016 United States presidential election on employment discrimination. New paper published FREE READ ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellows Marina Mileo Gorzig & Deborah Rho.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that employment discrimination in the US increased after the 2016 Presidential elections, but predominantly occurred in occupations involving interaction with customers.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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The effect of the 2016 United States presidential election on employment discrimination

by GLO Fellows Marina Mileo Gorzig & Deborah Rho

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READ LINK.

Author Abstract: We examine whether employment discrimination increased after the 2016 presidential election in the United States. We submitted fictitious applications to publicly advertised positions using resumes that are manipulated on perceived race and ethnicity (Somali American, African American, and white American). Prior to the 2016 election, employers contacted Somali American applicants slightly less than white applicants but more than African American applicants. After the election, the difference between white and Somali American applicants increased by 8 percentage points. The increased discrimination predominantly occurred in occupations involving interaction with customers. We continued data collection from July 2017 to March 2018 to test for seasonality in discrimination; there was no substantial increase in discrimination after the 2017 local election.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020


Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Employment effects of language training for unemployed immigrants: New paper published OPEN ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Julia Lang.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds for German data that the employment probability of unemployed immigrants increases strongly with language training.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Employment effects of language training for unemployed immigrants
by Julia Lang

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: Proficiency in the host country’s language is an important factor for the successful labor market integration of immigrants. In this study, I analyze the effects of a language training program for professional purposes on the employment opportunities of participants in Germany. I apply an instrumental variable approach and exploit differences in lagged local training intensities. Bivariate probit estimates show that 2 years after the program started, the employment probability of immigrants who were unemployed in 2014 and participated in the program had increased by more than nine percentage points as a result of language training.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

How family background shapes the relationship between human capital and fertility. New paper published OPEN ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Francis Kramarz, Olof Rosenqvist & Oskar Nordström Skans.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds by comparing twins and close siblings in Swedish register data that the negative association between human capital and fertility mostly reflects family background factors.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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How family background shapes the relationship between human capital and fertility
by Francis Kramarz, Olof Rosenqvist & Oskar Nordström Skans

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: Many previous studies have shown that skilled and educated women have fewer children. By comparing twins and close siblings in Swedish register data, we show that the negative association between human capital and fertility mostly reflects family background factors. For males, human capital measures are unrelated to fertility in the overall population, but this again masks the influence of family background factors as high-skilled males tend to have more children than their less-skilled twins or siblings. Hence, family background factors have a strong negative impact on the overall association between human capital measures and fertility for both women and men. Non-cognitive abilities deviate from these patterns—these abilities remain strongly complementary to fertility both within and across families. Our results can be reconciled with a stylized model where family-specific preferences for fertility are shared across generations and shape investments in skills and traits when children are young.

Number of submissions, 2010-2020
EiC Report 2020

Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Azita Berar on ‘Appraising the youth uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. Ten years on, too early to say ?!’ GLO Policy Brief No. 5.

Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.

GLO Policy Brief No. 5
Theme 2: Inequalities and labor markets
Theme 4: Youth employment and participation

Appraising the youth uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa

Ten years on, too early to say ?!

by Azita Berar

It is ten years since  several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), were swept by waves of peaceful youth-led protests, longing  for economic and social justice and political freedoms. These uprisings, also called the “Arab Spring”, eventually led to the fall of long established leaders in some countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya), ushered attempts of reform in others (Morocco, Algeria, Jordan), and stalled  in  protracted and violent civil strife in others (Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen) where competing external interventions have compounded internal polarizations.

In this Policy Brief, I argue that the transformational impact of the “Arab Spring” process is more complex, global and open-ended than is generally acknowledged.

____________________

Ten years on: reflecting on root causes and policy outcomes of the “Arab Spring”

  • It has become a common practice, especially on anniversaries such as this one, to revisit the original demands that drove the Arab uprisings at the end of 2010 and throughout 2011 and to measure the progress achieved.  But could we or should we assess the outcomes of revolutions, social movements and uprisings by establishing a balance sheet to score successes and failures?  To identify winners and losers? Could we attribute responsibilities for these diverging and complex outcomes in different settings?
  • Ten years on,- notwithstanding the specific circumstances and dynamics in each country-, the impressions of an unfinished agenda, of an aborted revolution, of stagnation or even backpedaling predominate. These sentiments have replaced the worldwide jubilation, admiration and support that poured then into the symbolic seeds of these youthful uprisings: Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia, the town of M. Bouazizi’s tragic self-immolation and the Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt.
  • There are many outstanding questions regarding the “Arab Spring”. There is still an unsettled debate for example as how to qualify these uprisings: social movement, political revolt, revolution or any other denomination?
  • Regarding the substance of claims that filled the placards carried by young protestors across the region, the twin themes of “Freedom and Equity” predominated, revealing a mix of deeply rooted political, economic and social grievances.
  • Chief amongst the socio-economic grievances voiced by young women and men throughout the region, was the demand for “jobs”, more precisely, for “decent work”. The desperate self-immolation of Abu Azizi, a young street vendor in the small town of Sidi Bouzid, which sparked the waves of protests in Tunisia, was symbolic on more than one count. It epitomized the plight of the informal economy, the only source of jobs and livelihoods for a majority of the workforce, in all the dimensions of precarity and insecurity associated with it. The eldest son of a family of disenfranchised small land-owner, he had to abandon his early efforts of farming and after multiple attempts to find decent formal jobs in the town he had come to settle in, he resorted to selling vegetable and fruits on a cart, with funds borrowed, to cater for himself and the family of six. He also had to struggle all along to finish his own schooling and have his siblings go to school. As a street vendor, he was subject to continuous harassment by local authorities on various grounds including for presenting a permit that later was confirmed that he did not need. The situation of  informal economy workers is not much different today. Informality is on the rise with the continued youth employment crisis in the region. The COVID-19 induced economic slowdown has increased poverty including working poverty. The various relief and compensation packages, seldom take into account work and income losses and access to health and social protection of those who live and work in conditions of informality.
  • The tragic event also gave a human face to the millions of young women and men in the region, who each year, upon finishing school, struggle to find a decent job and a meaningful place in the society. Ten years on, youth unemployment rates remain as stubbornly high, in all of the MENA region, as a decade ago; sadly, the highest in the world[1]. Difficulties in school to work transitions affect all strokes of youth including the university graduates. The “decent work” deficits are also manifest in more significant indicators, such as high incidence of inactivity and discouraged labour and low pay jobs amongst youth.  Across all these indicators, youth are affected disproportionately,  compared to their relative weight in the population and young women consistently, at a higher disadvantage. The gender gap is significant signaling pervasive segregation and discrimination in numerous sectors. In addition, women shoulder a disproportionate share of unpaid care labour, in view of the limited availability of affordable and accessible social infrastructure for child and elderly care.
  • While the demographics in the region, in particular the youth bulge, explain the pressure on labour markets, they do not excuse the poor performance in youth transitions. There is a collective political responsibility of policy actors in public and private spheres in the region for, gradually but surely, missing out on the short and irreversible window of opportunity that the “youth dividend” represents. The same dividend that many analysts consider, as a key success factor in promoting the “East Asian Tigers”’ economic miracle[2].   
  • Despite all the soul-searching that was undertaken in the wake of youth protests a decade ago, internally, as  well as by international institutions and development partners, the main course of  economic and social strategies, have  not changed fundamentally.
  • Scholars of the region had pointed then to the gaps and needed direction of change to deliver on more and better job-friendly and inclusive outcomes. The kinds of structural changes in economic strategies that were advocated, such as supporting an endogenous Research and Innovation (R&I) capacity  and  a genuine industrial policy redressing the exclusionary nature of current privatization policies, as well as  better negotiating  terms of  integration in the global economy, have not been followed suit.
  • The discursive mea culpa of international financial institutions for the neglect of the social and human side of the equation[3] , was not followed through either with action or support for the adoption of alternative macro-economic frameworks.[4]
  • Whilst in the first few years after the uprisings, the region saw a flurry of projects and increased development cooperation dedicated to youth employment, gender equality and in support of reform and inclusion agendas, these did not amount to a significant change in policy priorities and approaches.  Investments in access to health, in quality education, in inclusive skills’ training opportunities and for  extending capacities for implementation and institutional development have not matched the needs. Even in Tunisia which, by all accounts, has had a most peaceful and successful transition to date , thanks to the strength of its social institutions[5], policy reform and implementation have become captive of protracted consultations, political balancing and frequent changes in ministerial assignments.
  • On the objective of democratization, the score may seem even weaker, and the space that was created and occupied seem to have closed or significantly shrunk. Aside from the Tunisian exception, elsewhere  coercive measures and repression,  and sometimes, serious breaches of human rights, seem to have won over. The no-choice policy narrative of  “radical Islamism” or “autocracy” prior to the Arab uprisings  is gradually replaced by another no-choice,  that of either “chaos” or “autocracy”.
  • However, it will be wrong to limit the legacy of the Arab Spring to these considerations, as fundamental as they are. The unmet aspirations have not de-legitimized the original drive. The acquired experience of new citizenship rights, of holding the rulers accountable and  the claims of “dignity”, “justice” and other non-quantifiable transformational values, awakened by the 2010-2011 protests, are vivid. The more recent rounds of protests in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, show that these demands and expectations, resurface recurrently and occupy the space that can be occupied. Each time, the agenda of demands is pushed into new spaces and in more creative ways.

Shouldn’t we look at “Arab Spring”, its triggers and outcomes, by situating it more globally ?

  • Most people analyze the “Arab Spring” through an “essentialist” lens, explaining its rise and demise from the specific historical and geopolitical  conditions in Middle East and North Africa. There is another perspective to consider:  that of the chain of protests against inequalities and backlashes of globalization that have sparked indifferent geographies and succeeded each other throughout the last decade.
  • We should recall that the youth uprisings in MENA followed shortly the 2008 global economic financial crisis that caused global recession and slowdown, with massive impacts on jobs. The global crisis was revelatory of another, that of an unprecedented youth employment crisis. The “Arab spring” was preceded by the 2009 “Green Uprising” in Iran,  and followed by numerous  bouts of similar protests on the other shores of the Mediterranean and beyond.  Such as those by the “Indignados” starting in Spain, or “Occupy Wall Street” for example, that developed in the following months and years and spread worldwide. The reference by the “Occupy” movement to the “Tahrir moment”[6], clearly shows the catalytic role that the “Arab Spring” played in the string of social protests movements in the early years of the decade.
  • While the local dynamics and demands differed, there were several  common denominators amongst these youth-led leaderless movements. First, was a loud outcry against inequalities and neo-liberal policies that shaped the globalization, in particular for failing to deliver on the goals of full and decent employment and on social inclusion and mobility agendas. Another common demand was the quest for new forms of participatory democracy and for creating new forms of local empowerment as a means to rebuild trust in the institutions. Unsurprisingly, in the midst of another global crisis, that of COVID-19, these demands have re-emerged creating a new momentum for  paradigm shifts.
  • The Arab Spring also acted as a catalyst to the emergence of yet another phenomenon, that of  “youth agency” in global governance. Several international resolutions and calls for actions spearheaded by the United Nations System were adopted in direct response to the youth employment crisis[7] revealed by the 2008 financial crisis and echoed through the 2010-2011 “Arab Spring”. Ever since, inviting youth as a distinct stakeholder in the policy conversation and  promoting youth voice and engagement in consultative and advisory formats, in various forums related to sustainable development or to peace building agendas has become a new standard pattern. The organization and institutionalization of numerous youth fora along global, regional and national policy making conferences, the growth of new youth-led or youth-centered organizations in all regions and their engagement by multiple stakeholders, governments, private sector, civil society and academia, show the road traveled in less than a decade.

Ten years is a short period in a historical perspective.But what is an adequate time frame to appraise the impact of the “Arab Spring” ?  There is a famous quote attributed to the Chinese premier Zhou Enlai. When asked in early 1970’s about the influence of the French Revolution, he is reputed to have said: ‘Too early to say!’

The 2010-2020 decade joins two major global crises. The 2008 global financial crisis followed by the austerity policies adopted since 2010, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These crises triggered massive social and economic meltdowns, waves of social and political protests and alternative ideas looking into the future. In this broader perspective, how to appraise the impact of  the “Arab Spring”, in the region and globally ? Certainly in more complex terms and it is “Too early to say.
__________________


[1] In 2020, the youth unemployment rate in North Africa stood at 30 percent compared to the world average of 13,6 percent. For all indicators, see various editions of ILO, Global Employment Trends for Youth.
[2] There is a growing body of empirical evidence on the subject since the original work by D.E.  Bloom & J.G. Williamson, Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, was published in 1997.
[3] Momani, B and Lanz, D (2014) Shifting IMF Policies Since the Arab Uprisings, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Policy Brief no. 34.
[4] Mohammed Mossallam, The IMF in the Arab world: Lessons unlearnt, SOAS, University of London, December 2015.
[5] The Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet composed of the UGTT (the Tunisian General Labour Union), UTICA (the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts), Tunisian Human Rights League and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers, was awarded the 2015 Noble Peace Prize for its decisive contribution to consolidate democratic gains and a peaceful constitutional settlement.
[6] The organizers of the Occupy Wall Street posted in their July 2011 web-post: Are you ready for a “Tahrir moment”? The expression has been used multiple times since.
[7] See  ILO, 2012 The youth employment crisis: A call for action. Adopted by tripartite constituents from ILO’s 189 members. ILO subsequently led the for formulation and launch in 2016 of a Global Initiative on Decent Jobs for Youth, a joint UN system wide initiative and multi-stakeholder partnership.

Note: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
Featured image: Mohamed Bouazizi

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Gender differences in the skill content of jobs. New paper published OPEN ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Rita Pető & Balázs Reizer.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that women use their cognitive skills less than men even within the same occupation; but there is no evidence of workplace discrimination against women.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Gender differences in the skill content of jobs
by Rita Pető & Balázs Reizer

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: There is significant heterogeneity in actual skill use within occupations even though occupations are differentiated by the task workers should perform during work. Using data on 12 countries which are available both in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey and International Social Survey Program, we show that women use their cognitive skills less than men even within the same occupation. The gap in skill intensity cannot be explained by differences in worker characteristics or in cognitive skills. Instead, we show that living in a partnership significantly increases the skill use of men compared with women. We argue that having a partner affects skill use through time allocation as the gender penalty of partnered women is halved once we control for working hours and hours spent on housework. Finally, we do not find evidence of workplace discrimination against women.

Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: New article published ONLINE FIRST and OPEN ACCESS by Tamás Hajdu and Gábor Hajdu.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics shows that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks and projects that climate change may increase seasonal differences in conception rates and cause a decline in fertility.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary
by Tamás Hajdu and Gábor Hajdu

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relationship between temperature and human conception rates and project the impacts of climate change by the mid-twenty-first century. Using complete administrative data on 6.8 million pregnancies between 1980 and 2015 in Hungary, we show that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks following exposure, but a partial rebound is observed after that. We project that with absent adaptation, climate change will increase seasonal differences in conception rates and annual conception rates will decline. A change in the number of induced abortions and spontaneous fetal losses drives the decline in conception rates. The number of live births is unaffected. However, some newborns will experience a shift in the timing of conception that leads to changes in in utero temperature exposure and therefore might have further consequences.

Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
Workshop presentation of key articles with full video.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
OPEN ACCESS: Free ReadlinkDownload PDF

Ends;

Wage Distributions in Origin Societies and Occupational Choices of Immigrant Generations in the US. New article by GLO Fellow Crystal Zhan published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new article published in the Journal of Population Economics studies the occupational selection among generations of immigrants in the United States and shows how their choices are linked to the occupational wage distribution in their country of origin.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 685, 2020
Wage Distributions in Origin Societies and Occupational Choices of Immigrant Generations in the US – Download PDF
by
Zhan, Crystal
Published ONLINE FIRST: Journal of Population Economics
FREE READLINK to published version: https://rdcu.be/cd9XE

GLO Fellow Crystal Zhan

Author Abstract: This paper studies the occupational selection among generations of immigrants in the United States and links their choices to the occupational wage distribution in their country of origin. The empirical results suggest that individuals are more likely to take up an occupation in the US that was more lucrative in the origin country, conditional on individual demographics, parental human capital, and ethnic networks. However, the importance of the origin wage declines with the length of time that immigrants spend in the US and over generations. Information friction may be an explanation.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. New article by GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur and Leonardo Baccini & Stephen Weymouth now published ONLINE FIRST with FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new article published in the Journal of Population Economics suggests that Donald Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases in the United States had been 5 percent lower.

COVID-19 brought the change
Photo by Charles Deluvio on Unsplash

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Abel Brodeur

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
by Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Weymouth, Stephen
Pre-publication revised GLO DP 710 [pre.].

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 34, Issue 2/2021. FREE ACCESS to the published version including the PDF.

GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic. New article on the USA published ONLINE FIRST with OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics discusses why it is so vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic and reveal the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior in the USA.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic

by Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Zahn, Matthew V.; Belot, Michèle; van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline; Choi, Syngjoo; Jamison, Julian C. & Tripodi, Egon


Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue 2/2021.
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdCjh OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: Given the role of human behavior in the spread of disease, it is vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic. This paper examines factors associated with the adoption of self-protective health behaviors, such as social distancing and mask wearing, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA. These behaviors not only reduce an individual’s own risk of infection but also limit the spread of disease to others. Despite these dual benefits, universal adoption of these behaviors is not assured. We focus on the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior, relying on data collected in April 2020 during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data include information on income, gender and race along with unique variables relevant to the current pandemic, such as work arrangements and housing quality. We find that higher income is associated with larger changes in self-protective behaviors. These gradients are partially explained by the fact that people with less income are more likely to report circumstances that make adopting self-protective behaviors more difficult, such as an inability to tele-work. Both in the USA and elsewhere, policies that assume universal compliance with self-protective measures—or that otherwise do not account for socioeconomic differences in the costs of doing so—are unlikely to be effective or sustainable.

Featured image: Photo-by-Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing. New article by GLO Fellows John P. de New & David C. Ribar and colleagues published ONLINE FIRST with FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics indicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution suggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing

by Botha, Ferdi; de New, John P.; de New, Sonja C.; Ribar, David C. & Salamanca, Nicolás


Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue2/2021.
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdBX6 FREE ACCESS to PDF. Previous version GLO DP 661.

GLO Fellows John P. de New & David C. Ribar

Author Abstract: Australia’s economy abruptly entered into a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. Related labour market shocks on Australian residents have been substantial due to business closures and social distancing restrictions. Government measures are in place to reduce flow-on effects to people’s financial situations, but the extent to which Australian residents suffering these shocks experience lower levels of financial wellbeing, including associated implications for inequality, is unknown. Using novel data we collected from 2078 Australian residents during April to July 2020, we show that experiencing a labour market shock during the pandemic is associated with a 29% lower level of perceived financial wellbeing, on average. Unconditional quantile regressions indicate that lower levels of financial wellbeing are present across the entire distribution, except at the very top. Distribution analyses indicate that the labour market shocks are also associated with higher levels of inequality in financial wellbeing. Financial counselling and support targeted at people who experience labour market shocks could help them to manage financial commitments and regain financial control during periods of economic uncertainty.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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China research: Does social participation improve cognitive abilities of the elderly? New article by GLO Fellow Shu Cai published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly in China.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Does social participation improve cognitive abilities of the elderly?

by Cai, Shu

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdjPu

GLO Fellow Shu Cai

Shu Cai

Author Abstract: This paper examines the effect of social participation on cognitive performance using data from a longitudinal survey of the elderly in China. It addresses the problem of endogenous participation by exploiting the variation in changes in social participation that are driven by changes in community service for social activities. The results show that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly. The point estimates indicate that engaging in social activity raises cognitive scores by 29% of a standard deviation.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

Ends;

Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy? New article published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that Northern Italy around 1650–1799 was a more “Malthusian” society than England at that time.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy?

by Maja Pedersen, Claudia Riani & Paul Sharp

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cdgq1

Author Abstract: The Malthusian model, which implies a long-run interaction between demography and living standards, forms a cornerstone of our understanding of comparative economic development, as postulated by unified growth theory. Its empirical validity has been supported by a number of studies, most of which examine England. In Northern Italy, however, there might have been a reversed “preventive check.” We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Italian data from ca. 1650–1799 and find some evidence for this, but also for diminishing returns and thus a more “Malthusian” society than in, for example, England at that time.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Azita Berar on ‘From “Future of Work” to “Building Better”: 2021, the year of a Global Policy Rethink ?’ GLO Policy Brief No. 4.

Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.

GLO Policy Brief No. 4 – Theme 3. Future of Work – Covid-19


From “Future of Work” to “Building Better”: 2021, the year of a Global Policy Rethink ?

by Azita Berar

A year ago, 2019 ended with a pick in analyses, forecasts and policy debates on what the “Future of Work” would or should look like. Hopes and fears were expressed  about the implications of the latest technological innovations , labelled  “Industry 4.0”, for labour markets and more fundamentally for society and humanity. It is bewildering to see how, in less than 10 months, since the onset of  the COVID-19 pandemic as a global threat, the center of focus of both analysis and policy has radically shifted to  entrenched inequalities and vulnerabilities and the deep running fault lines in our political and economic systems.

As 2020 closed down, we submit that the COVID-19 crisis has done more in generating a new momentum for paradigm shift and for indicating the avenues for a social reconstruct than all the preceding years of analysis, forecasts and policy negotiations around the Future of Work.

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What we should know

  • 2019 ended with a flurry of publications, national and international policy discussion on the “Future of Work” engaging  multiple stakeholders. These discussions had started mid-decade, triggered by the rapid acceleration in a new and – some argued, radically different- generation of technological innovations. [1] Hopes were raised by limitless opportunities that these frontier innovations could bring to all sectors of economy, work and life. Fears concerned “externalities”, in particular regarding the potential job destruction  and displacement effects of these technologies as well as the slow pace with which, new norms of governance, including  cross-border rules, were developed. The new social construct was lagging far behind the pace of technological innovations and their adoption in advanced and emerging economies.
  • A year later, as 2020 has closed, it is astounding to see the tremendous shift in perspective and policy debate. The COVID-19 pandemic humbled the humanity by exposing its fragility on a planetary scale. It left no aspect of life and no sector of the economy unaffected. The pandemic is still raging,  forcing continuous reevaluation of human losses and multi-faceted political, social, economic and emotional fallouts. In this Brief, we are not focusing on the sobering and evolving socio-economic impact [2], but on what is certain: the powerful revelatory impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has already had in 2020.
  • The pandemic shed light- like no other crisis before- on the deep running inequalities and vulnerabilities within societies and across countries and continents. By accelerating pre-existing trends and  exposing  the fault lines on a scale and in such a compelling manner that left no room for denial, the crisis brought to the fore, the inadequacy of policy paradigms, the need for alternative policy approaches and the quest for a better and fairer world.
  • The unfulfilled promises of globalization, the environmental exhaustion, the rising inequalities in distribution of wealth and income, the crisis of full and decent employment in all of its facets, as much as the persisting structural discriminations based on gender, race, refugee or migrant status, were not a revelation per se. These trends have been well documented and discussed in policy and experts’ circles, over the years. In 2020,  since and as the result of the global spread of COVID-19, the statistics and data buried in numerous analytic and policy reports came to life and wore  human faces, making  it an everyday visible reality for everyone across the globe.
  • The pandemic showed the insecure work and life patterns of those women and men  who work in  the informal economy, 62 percent of the global workforce, who cannot exercise social distancing, apply basic hygiene preventive rules, access health services, or stop work under conditions of lockdown, with no access to alternative income support  and safety nets. School closures vividly exposed, the deep divides in access to quality education and to digital technology for millions of children and students enrolled at all levels of education.
  • It was sobering to observe that in 2020, the year that marks the 25th anniversary of the first World Conference on Women and the launch of a most comprehensive platform of action for promoting gender equality, women  in advanced and developing economies alike, remained the default unpaid care takers at home, and occupied most of “essential” frontline occupations in underpaid sectors with part time and insecure contracts.
  • Youth who have not fully recovered from the employment crisis in the wake of 2008/09 global crisis, have been once more, massively  impacted, this time with a twin challenge of completing their education under conditions of lockdown, and  facing the prospect of  another protracted transition and stalled mobility into work, adulthood and autonomy.
  • Positive trends recorded in some of global indicators of the 2030 SDG agenda, such as reduction in poverty, hunger and malnutrition have  reversed course, with a huge humanitarian crisis looming in the horizon.
  • But the pandemic also brought the “Future of Work” faster and closer to home. The expansion of remote and online work, pointed to a new dualism in the labour markets,  jobs that can be performed remotely and online and those renamed- essential services and critical jobs – that could not. The expansion of online teleworking , beyond the flexibility and resilience it enables, is forcing managers and employees alike to re-consider the value of inter-personal and social interactions and to re-think the nature of future workplace arrangements.
  • As demand expanded exponentially for the digital delivery sector and other on-demand services, the pandemic exposed the ambiguity in the   prevailing business models and employment relationships in these sectors.  In some instances, this increased visibility of these types of  new non-standard forms of employment accelerated the adoption and  implementation of new legal and social protection norms including rise in minimum wages.
  • More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis, by laying bare inequalities and socio-economic divides of various types, questioned the fundamental underpinnings  of policies and policy paradigms enacted over last decades, that allowed and deepened such uneven and unfair outcomes. In short, the pandemic diffused across societies, a new sense of urgency and a moral imperative for a rethink of policy.

Will 2021 be the inflection point to unleash and accelerate such a paradigm shift?

  • 2020 was an exceptional year of reflection  and soul-searching on what is essential and critical to humans? On the relationship between humans, nature and science? What determines resilience to future shocks and what scope should there be for national sovereignty,  and for inter-dependence, solidarity and cooperation?
  • Exceptional measures and  massive stimulus packages, were announced and partially deployed in major economies,  to deal with the most immediate impact of the pandemic and to prevent a catastrophic socio-economic collapse. These measures were exceptional  not only in size, surpassing tens of Trillion dollars already in June 2020, but also in the range and types of policy levers used. There was not much hesitation to push aside stringent prudential rules introduced by the same economies and institutions with respect to the debt to GDP ratio, or the time limit for the debt payments, for example. [3]
  • Beyond immediate relief and recovery packages, calls to “Reset Capitalism”, “Renew the social contract”, reinvent solidarity, rethink public- private cooperation…. are emanating from diverse stakeholders with often diverging interests. More significantly, the importance of  interventionist role of the state in sustaining the economy and jobs and in leading environmental transitions, is rehabilitated and valued. The demand for a stronger role of public policy and  public investment in health, education, universal social protection, basic income have resurfaced to the top of mainstream policy debate and agenda.
  • The serious consideration in policy circles and political campaigns, of  New Green Deal proposals, Public  Job Guarantee schemes , local community development strategies in the United States alone, is a testimony of the extent to which, the pendulum has swung away from orthodox market fundamentalism.  Although these ideas are not new, they have  come out of background, gained in vigor and adherence in a short period of time.
  • It is yet early to judge, how far and how bold will the recovery plans go and what will be the scope of this “rethink”, beyond remedial and recovery responses. Will  recovery plans, as announced and promised, become accelerators of digitalization and  transition to low carbon economy and embed fiscal policies that promote greater equality and “just transitions”? 
  • Are these circumstantial  crisis-induced responses that will deflate once the health hazard and the ensuing economic recession are seen to have been brought  under control? Will once again, reform be stalled and austerity replace stimuli, as in the aftermath of 2008/9 crisis.  Or will it be really different this time, as more and more parties think that a return to status quo ante is not an option, and the future cannot be about building back but building better and different!

Will 2021 be seen as an inflection point as much as 1945 ushered a new era of social innovation and reconstruct, following the devastation of the second World War?

  • In the current global political context of divided societies, weakened democracies, growing mistrust in institutions and fragmented multilateralism, the odds for a collective political will to emerge and to lead a new wave of reform, may not seem very high.  However the pandemic and its consequences have also awakened and re-mobilized forces of citizenship, advocates of participatory and solidary development and democracy and re-invigorated labour and social movements. These factors combined have generated such high  demands and societal expectations that cannot be left unanswered and  are not ready to recede.
  • Paradigm shifts do not occur overnight, however the COVID-19 crisis by sweeping away with such speed a few more myths associated with market fundamentalism and unleashed globalization, has brought us so much closer to the imperative and possibility of  building a new social trust.

The year 2020 has closed with the pandemic still ravaging lives, economies and societies across the globe. Humanity is entering 2021 with the renewed  hope in science and in new vaccines- which signal that the end of this pandemic might be in sight- but uncertain about how far away and at what cost. More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis has re-ordered our value system and reshaped the policy debate  by pointing out that  the problem is not technology but the deep political, economic and social divides. The shock and response have created a new momentum for a fundamental policy rethink and action in a way that all the preceding discussions on the Future of Work had not succeeded.  Will the momentum be seized? What is certain is that 2021 will be looked at as the inflection year, where a new course seemed possible through a broad understanding of human agency, embracing multi-layered social mobilizations and political leaderships.
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[1] The Policy Brief No. 1 on Automation, inequality and jobs, in this Policy Forum, included references to major reports on Future of Work published since 2013. It also highlighted that most analyses overlooked the specific dynamics of technological adoption and labour markets in low income countries with large swaths of rural and informal economy workers.
[2] For regular updates and estimates see the following websites: COVID-19 Worldwide Dashboard – WHO Live World Statistics: Socio-economic impact of COVID-19 | UNDP; ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. 6th edition.
[3] It should be noted however that this flexibility, sits in sharp contrast to the  lack of solidarity and international financial support to fiscal policies in particular, in middle-income developing countries. Coordinated stimuli response and use of multilateral institutional mechanisms have been disappointing. In particular the combined response of G20, World Bank and IMF are falling short of providing the financial and fiscal space needed for an adequate COVID-19 response in much of mid-income developing countries.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

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Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children. New research paper by GLO Fellow published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway that miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility has similar negative effects for all three children on female earnings in the short-run, while a catch up afterwards shows only for the third child.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children
by Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS .

Author Abstract: We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program. New research paper by GLO Fellow Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra published ONLINE FIRST & FREE READ in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics examined a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia to show that it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program

by Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccQWs

GLO Fellow Diana Contreras Suarez

Author Abstract: We use data from the Familias en Acción program in Colombia to examine the spillover or indirect effects of a conditional cash transfer program. Our results show that the program has significant spillover effects: it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness. The benefits are stronger for women and the elderly in the short run and for men in the medium run. Our analysis suggests that these spillovers are driven by increased access to information in the household that creates a public good.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Identifying ethnic occupational segregation. New research paper by GLO Fellows Dafeng Xu and Yuxin Zhang published ONLINE FIRST & FREE READ in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics is studying Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA to find high degrees of occupational segregation.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Identifying ethnic occupational segregation

by Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccPoZ

GLO Fellows Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Author Abstract: Many studies consider occupational segregation among the immigrant population from a given birth country as a whole. This ignores potential ethnic heterogeneity within an immigrant population and may underestimate occupational segregation. We focus on Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA—then a major immigrant population with a high degree of ethnic diversity, including Russian, Jewish, German, and Polish ethnics—and study occupational segregation by ethnicity. We apply a machine learning ethnicity classification approach to 1930 US census data based on name and mother tongue. Using the constructed ethnicity variable, we show high degrees of occupational segregation by ethnicity within the Russian-born immigrant population in the USA. For example, Jews, German ethnics, and Polish ethnics were concentrated in trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, respectively. We also find evidence that Russian-born immigrants’ labor market outcomes were associated with networks measured by the spatial concentration of co-ethnics—particularly more established ones—but not by the concentrations of other ethnic groups.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics suggests on the basis of a historical model analysis that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria

by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Open Access

Author Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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The intergenerational effects of birth order on education. New article by GLO Fellow Enkelejda Havari and Marco Savegnago. Now published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for European countries that parents who are firstborns are better educated and have more educated children compared with later born parents.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

The intergenerational effects of birth order on education
by Enkelejda Havari and Marco Savegnago

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS!!

GLO Fellow Enkelejda Havari

Author Abstract: We study the intergenerational effect of birth order on educational attainment using rich data from different European countries included in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The survey allows us to link two or more generations in different countries. We use reduced-form models linking children’s education to parents’ education, controlling for a large number of characteristics measured at different points in time. We find that not only are parents who are themselves firstborns better educated, on average, but they also have more-educated children compared with laterborn parents (intergenerational effect). Results are stronger for mothers than for fathers, and for daughters than for sons. In terms of heterogeneous effects, we find that girls born to firstborn mothers have higher educational attainment than girls born to laterborn mothers. We do not find evidence for potential channels other than parental education that could explain the intergenerational effect of parental birth order.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Journal of Population Economics: Issue 1, 2021 published and Webinar on November 19, 2020.

Issue 1, 2021 of the Journal of Population Economics is already published online. See below the list of articles and access links to read the contributions.

November 19, 2020 (Thursday); (2-5 pm CET):
Journal of Population Economics Online Workshop (Webinar).
Hosted by UNU-MERIT. Maastricht .
Open to the general public.
Mark your calendar. Detailed agenda and registration information will be provided in time through the GLO & POP @ UNU-MERIT websites.

AGENDA:
Presentation of the Kuznets Prize 2021
Highlights of Issue 1/2021
– Lead article
– 4 articles on Covid-19
Meeting with the authors, prize winners and editors.
*******

LEAD ARTICLE
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a warREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

HOUSEHOLD
Lixing Li, Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou: Intra-household bargaining power, surname inheritance, and human capital accumulationREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkY
Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton: Does female breadwinning make partnerships less healthy or less stable?READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xk0

MIGRATION
Jakub Lonsky: Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities — OPEN ACCESS: PDF
Sandra V. Rozo, Therese Anders & Steven Raphael: Deportation, crime, and victimizationREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlf
Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Nicolau Martin Bassols & Judit Vall Castello: Safety at work and immigration — OPEN ACCESS: PDF

COVID-19 (Springer presents all Covid-19 articles open accessible)
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlh
Domenico Depalo: True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlj
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xll
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19 — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xln

KUZNETS PRIZE
2021 Kuznets Prize awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, and Wei Shi

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Railroads, specialization, and population growth: evidence from the first globalization. New article by GLO Fellow Francisco Gallego and colleagues. Now published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN READ in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that railroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Railroads, specialization, and population growth: evidence from the first globalization

by Andres Forero, Francisco A. Gallego, Felipe Gonzalez and Matıas Tapia

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK

GLO Fellow Francisco A. Gallego

Railway

Author Abstract: We explore how railroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile. We look at areas with a strong comparative advantage in agriculture using novel data that document 60 years of railroad construction. Using instrumental variables, we present four main findings. First, railroads increased both urban and rural population growth. Second, the impact was stronger in areas with more potential for agricultural expansion. Third, railroads increased specialization in agriculture when combined with a high level of the real exchange rate. And fourth, railroads had little effect on human capital and fertility. These results suggest that the effects of transportation technologies depend on existing macroeconomic conditions.

Featured image: photo-Paul-Jarvis-on-Unsplash

Access to the recently published Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 29K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 26, 2020.

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