Author: Angus C. Chu. Department of Economics, University of Macau, Macau, China Handling JOPE Editor: Oded Galor. Author of the bestselling book Journey of Humanity.
The study of GLO Fellow Arie Kapteyn (University of Southern California) published in 1994 in the Journal of Population Economics demonstrated that subjective wellbeing measures fully identify household cost functions.
Happy birthday and 77 thanks to a role model in the field of population economics.
Kapteyn, A. The measurement of household cost functions. Journal of Population Economics 7:4, 333–350 (1994).
The studyprovides supportive evidence for the unified growth theory, showing that the decreased fertility rates in pre-transition China could be a result of rational behaviors perpetuated by households in response to higher educational returns and accessibility.
Bai, Y., Li, Y. & Lam, P.H. Quantity-quality trade-off in Northeast China during the Qing dynasty. J Popul Econ (2023).
In terms of social welfare within the Rawlsian welfare function, if people are highly risk-averse and therefore strongly inequality-averse, a pay-as-you-go system with no savings credit outperforms a fully funded system.
Tamai, T. Social security, economic growth, and social welfare in an overlapping generation model with idiosyncratic TFP shock and heterogeneous workers. J Popul Econ (2023).
A new study shows that those connections still matter much for wellbeing and mark differences concerning preferences for democracy and market economy, for levels of optimism, and risk tolerance.
Otrachshenko, V., Nikolova, M. & Popova, O. Double-edged sword: persistent effects of Communist regime affiliations on well-being and preferences. J Popul Econ (2023).
Temperatures over 30°C significantly increase the likelihood of depression!
Hua, Y., Qiu, Y. & Tan, X. The effects of temperature on mental health: evidence from China. J Popul Econ (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00932-y
Jolly, N.A., Theodoropoulos, N. Health shocks and spousal labor supply: an international perspective. J Popul Econ (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00929-7
The pros and cons of the one-day trip of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are heavily debated at home and globally. Is this a good move after the “Zeitenwende” caused by the Russian aggression in the Ukraine? In an opinion piece for the China Daily I argue today that the visit is important at this time to explore the potentials for the world and strengthen mutual trust.
Author Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of supply-side abortion restrictions on aggregate abortion and birth rates in the United States. Specifically, I exploit state and time variation in the implementation of the first targeted regulation of abortion provider (TRAP) law in a state to identify the effects of the laws. I find that TRAP laws are associated with a reduction in the abortion rate of approximately 5% the year the first law is implemented, and an average reduction of 11-14% in subsequent years. There is also evidence that TRAP laws increased birth rates by 2-3%, which accounts for approximately 80-100% of the observed decline in abortion rates.
Author Abstract: An expansive empirical literature estimates the causal effects of policies governing young women’s confidential and legal access to contraception and abortion. I present a new review of changes in the historical policy environment in the United States that serve as the foundation of this work. I consult primary sources including annotated statutes, judicial rulings, attorney general opinions, and advisory articles in medical journals, as well as secondary sources including newspaper articles and snapshots of various policy environments prepared by scholars, advocates, and government organizations. Based on this review, I provide a suggested coding of the policy environment over the past 60 years. I also present and compare the legal coding schemes used in the empirical literature and where possible I resolve numerous and substantial discrepancies.
Access to more published JOPE research on abortion issues:
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides a suggested coding of the policy environment over the past 60 years.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
Has the US Supreme Court voted to overturn abortion rights? The paper by Caitlin Myers provides important background information about the US policy environment over decades.
Author Abstract: An expansive empirical literature estimates the causal effects of policies governing young women’s confidential and legal access to contraception and abortion. I present a new review of changes in the historical policy environment in the United States that serve as the foundation of this work. I consult primary sources including annotated statutes, judicial rulings, attorney general opinions, and advisory articles in medical journals, as well as secondary sources including newspaper articles and snapshots of various policy environments prepared by scholars, advocates, and government organizations. Based on this review, I provide a suggested coding of the policy environment over the past 60 years. I also present and compare the legal coding schemes used in the empirical literature and where possible I resolve numerous and substantial discrepancies.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Using data from large-scale experiments with entire families for Bangladesh, the research finds that both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences.Results differ from evidence for rich countries.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 592, 2020 now forthcoming as
Economic preferences across generations and family clusters: A large-scale experiment in a developing country by Chowdhury, Shyamal & Sutter, Matthias & Zimmermann, Klaus F.
GLO FellowsShyamal Chowdhury and Matthias Sutter & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann
Shyamal Chowdhury
Matthias Sutter
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Author Abstract:Our large-scale experiment with 542 families from rural Bangladesh finds substantial intergenerational persistence of economic preferences. Both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly (and largely to the same degree) positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and socio-economic background. We discuss possible transmission channels and are the first to classify all families into one of two clusters, with either relatively patient, risk-tolerant and pro-social members or relatively impatient, risk averse and spiteful members. Classifications correlate with socio-economic background variables. We find that our results differ from evidence for rich countries.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Using data for young Romanians, a GLO Discussion Paper found that it is external religiosity that interacts with weaker addictive behaviors like smoking, drinking and using drugs.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 859, 2021
Religiosity, Smoking and Other Addictive Behaviors by Roman, Monica & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Plopeanu, Aurelian-Petruș
Now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS: Journal of Economics, Management and Religion (JEMAR), Vol. 2 (2022), 2250001.
Author Abstract: While under communism the identity-providing religion was suppressed, religiosity is strong today even among the youth in post-communist countries. This provides an appropriate background to investigate how external and internal religiosity relates to risky behaviors like smoking, drinking, and drugs among the young. This study shows that not religion as such or internal religiosity, but largely observable (external) religiosity prevents them from wallowing in those vices. While this is found strongly for both males and females, those females doubting or reflecting religion show a somewhat smaller risky activity.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The new paperfinds that an U-shaped relationship between female labour force participation and economic development is only significant in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology.
Journal of Population Economics (2022). Open Access https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-022-00890-5
Author Abstract: The Feminisation U describes the tendency of female labour force participation (FLFP) to first decline and then rise in the process of economic development. While the Feminisation U is often presented as a ‘stylised fact’ of development, empirical support for it is mixed. Here, we show that cultural norms inherited from ancestral plough use exert a moderating influence on the shape of the Feminisation U. Specifically, we find a significantly U-shaped path of FLFP only in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology. The shape of the U-curve becomes progressively more muted as the share of a country’s ancestors that practiced plough agriculture decreases. In countries with little or no legacy of historical plough use, the time path of FLFP is effectively flat. This pattern of results is robust to correcting for dynamic panel bias, instrumenting for per-capita income, and controlling for other potential effect modifiers. Our findings are compatible with a nuanced reading of the main theoretical models proposed in the literature to explain the Feminisation U.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
J Popul Econ (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00883-w Open Access
Matloob Piracha
Max Tani
Zhiming Cheng
Author Abstract: We analyse how immigrants’ level of social assimilation is related to their labour market outcomes. More precisely, we estimate the association between assimilation and employment, wages, underemployment, three measures of job satisfaction, overeducation and wages. Using Australian longitudinal data, we find that assimilation is strongly associated with employment and wages as well as a number of job satisfaction measures. We then split our data and repeat the analysis for before and after the financial crisis of 2008–2009. We find important differences in the way assimilation is associated with different measures of labour market outcomes under different economic conditions. Finally, we explore mechanisms that may underlie the results.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Because vaccinations are crucial to containing the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to identify the key factors behind successful immunisation campaigns. This column shows that pandemic pressures, economic strength, educational advancement, and political regimes can affect vaccination uptake, given vaccine availability. While democratic regimes initially show faster vaccination uptake, this advantage fades out as countries try to get more people vaccinated. Countries with strong economies and education systems are likely to have faster uptake of vaccination campaigns.
Read the column:
Vu M. Ngo, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Phuc V. Nguyen, Toan Luu Duc Huynh and Huan H. Nguyen (2021). Understanding the setup and speed of global COVID-19 vaccination campaigns
A new paper published Online First in the Journal of Population Economics finds heritability for Norway to account for about 50–100% of intergenerational transmissions.
Author Abstract: Using a Norwegian sample of adoptees from South Korea, matched to a sample of Norwegian-born children, we study the intergenerational transmission of labour market outcomes, including earnings, disability insurance participation and sickness absence, as well as education. We find the nurture effect to be substantial for education, labour earnings, and sickness absence, but fairly small and insignificant for disability insurance participation. By carefully comparing adoptees to children living with their biological parents, we also estimate the shares of intergenerational transmission stemming from heritability and environmental factors. Across outcomes we find heritability to account for about 50–100% of intergenerational transmission.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics shows that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children.
by Hendrik Jürges, Luca Stella, Sameh Hallaq and Alexandra Schwarz
PublishedOPEN ACCESS: Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 35 (2022), pp. 1-43. PDF
Author Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of households’ exposure to violent conflict on children’s educational attainment in primary school, studying cognitive and non-cognitive skills as possible causal channels. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-level variation in the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2005). We show that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children as measured by grade point averages. We find that non-cognitive rather than cognitive skills are the channels through which exposure affects children’s educational achievement.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST finds that, upon return, undocumented migrants experience a wage penalty compared with documented migrants, as well as relative to non-migrants.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS — PDF
Jackline Wahba
Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the legal status of overseas migrants on their wages upon return to the home country. Using unique data from Egypt, which allows us to distinguish between return migrants according to whether their international migration was documented or undocumented, we examine the impact of illegal status on wages upon return. Relying on a Conditional Mixed Process model, which takes into account the selection into emigration, into return, and into the legal status of temporary migration, we find that, upon return, undocumented migrants experience a wage penalty compared with documented migrants, as well as relative to non-migrants. Our results are the first to show the impact of undocumented migration on the migrant upon return to the country of origin.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free readlink in the Journal of Population Economics finds that severe water contamination in the US modestly increased the rate of low birth weight, but had little effect on the length of gestation or rate of prematurity.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics Free READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cytgm
Author Abstract: In 2014, the city of Flint, MI, in the USA changed its public water source, resulting in severe water contamination and a public health crisis. Using the Flint water crisis as a natural experiment, we estimate the effect of in utero exposure to polluted water on health at birth. Matching vital statistics birth records with various sources of data, we use the synthetic control method to identify the causal impact of water pollution on key birth outcomes. Our results suggest that the crisis modestly increased the rate of low birth weight (LBW) by 1.8 percentage points (or 15.5%) but had little effect on the length of gestation or rate of prematurity. However, these effects are larger among children born to black mothers, as indicated by an increase in the rate of LBW by 2.5 percentage points (or 19%). Children born to white mothers exhibit, on average, a 30.1-g decrease in birth weight. We find little evidence that the male-to-female sex ratio declines in the overall population, suggesting that the in utero scarring effect of the Flint water crisis may dominate the channel of mortality selection. However, we observe a slight decline in the sex ratio among children born to black mothers. Finally, we find no notable change in the fertility rates of either black women or white women in Flint. These results are robust to a rich set of placebo and falsification tests.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free readlink in the Journal of Population Economics finds that financial hardship is associated with significantly more screen time, particularly passive screen time, and screen time at excessive levels.
by Jessica L. Arnup, Nicole Black & David W. Johnston
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics Free READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cyeE8
Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of children’s migration on the well-being of left-behind parents using panel data on experienced utility measured by the Day Reconstruction Method. Exploiting exogenous variation in exposure to employment shocks at migration destinations for identification, we find that left-behind parents experience lower utility when their adult children migrate. This is partly due to increased working time and less time spent in social activities, and partly due to reduced utility within activity type. The latter effect is consistent with the finding of less physical care and psychological support from children who have migrated. These negative effects dominate the possible benefits of greater income associated with children’s migration.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free readlink in the Journal of Population Economics finds that abortions in Mexico City reduced substantially during the period of stay-at-home orders.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics Free READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cyeBt
Author Abstract: We study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and of government mandated mitigation policies on the number of abortions performed by Mexico City’s public abortion program. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders (SAHO) implemented in Mexico led to unintended consequences for women’s sexual and reproductive health. Using difference-in-differences and event study analyses, we show that SAHO and the pandemic led to a fall in abortions of around 25% and find no evidence that unsafe abortions increased. We find a decrease in the share of single and teenage women getting abortions, arguably due to fewer unwanted pregnancies from decreased sexual activity, and estimate that at most 9.8% of the total fall in abortions can be attributed to this. We complement our analysis using call data from a government helpline and show that the SAHO time period led to fewer abortion- and contraception-related calls but to an increase in pregnancy-related calls.
Featured image: Fusion-medical-animation-on-unsplash
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics finds that elections indeed matter. It has implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.
PublishedOPEN ACCESS ONLINE FIRST PDF 2021: Journal of Population Economics
Author Abstract: Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9–10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.
Featured image: Fusion-medical-animation-on-unsplash
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free readlink in the Journal of Population Economics finds that left-behind parents experience lower utility when their adult children migrate.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cxiiq
Shu Cai
Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of children’s migration on the well-being of left-behind parents using panel data on experienced utility measured by the Day Reconstruction Method. Exploiting exogenous variation in exposure to employment shocks at migration destinations for identification, we find that left-behind parents experience lower utility when their adult children migrate. This is partly due to increased working time and less time spent in social activities, and partly due to reduced utility within activity type. The latter effect is consistent with the finding of less physical care and psychological support from children who have migrated. These negative effects dominate the possible benefits of greater income associated with children’s migration.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that the minimum working age raised from 14 to 16 in Spain, while the compulsory education age remained at 14. The reform decreased mortality at ages 14–29 among men by 6.4% and women by 8.9%, mainly from a reduction in deaths due to traffic accidents. However, the reform also increased mortality for women ages 30–45 by 7%.
by Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cq2lY
Author Abstract: In 1980, a few years after its democratization process, Spain raised the minimum working age from 14 to 16, while the compulsory education age remained at 14. This reform changed the within-cohort incentives to remain in the educational system. We use a difference-in-differences approach, where our treated and control individuals only differ in their month of birth, to analyze the gender asymmetries in mortality generated by this change. The reform decreased mortality at ages 14–29 among men by 6.4% and women by 8.9%, mainly from a reduction in deaths due to traffic accidents. However, the reform also increased mortality for women ages 30–45 by 7%. This is driven by increases in HIV mortality, as well as by diseases related to the nervous and circulatory systems. We show that women’s health habits deteriorated as a consequence of the reform, while this was not the case for men. The gender differences in the impact of the reform on smoking and drinking should be understood in the context of the gender equalization process that affected women were experiencing when the reform took place. All in all, these patterns help explain the narrowing age gap in life expectancy between women and men in many developed countries while, at the same time, they provide important policy implications for middle-income countries that are undergoing those gender equalization processes right now.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Social distancing measures help contain the spread of COVID-19, but actual compliance has varied substantially across space and time. We ask whether cultural differences underlie this heterogeneity using mobility data across Switzerland between February and December 2020. We find that German-speaking cantons decreased their mobility for non-essential activities significantly less than French-speaking cantons. However, we find no such significant differences for bilingual cantons. Contrary to the evidence in the literature, we find that within the Swiss context, high trusting areas exhibited a smaller decline in mobility. Additionally, cantons supporting a limited role of the state in matters of welfare also experienced a smaller reduction in mobility.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that the minimum working age raised from 14 to 16 in Spain, while the compulsory education age remained at 14. The reform decreased mortality at ages 14–29 among men by 6.4% and women by 8.9%, mainly from a reduction in deaths due to traffic accidents. However, the reform also increased mortality for women ages 30–45 by 7%.
by Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cq2lY
Author Abstract: In 1980, a few years after its democratization process, Spain raised the minimum working age from 14 to 16, while the compulsory education age remained at 14. This reform changed the within-cohort incentives to remain in the educational system. We use a difference-in-differences approach, where our treated and control individuals only differ in their month of birth, to analyze the gender asymmetries in mortality generated by this change. The reform decreased mortality at ages 14–29 among men by 6.4% and women by 8.9%, mainly from a reduction in deaths due to traffic accidents. However, the reform also increased mortality for women ages 30–45 by 7%. This is driven by increases in HIV mortality, as well as by diseases related to the nervous and circulatory systems. We show that women’s health habits deteriorated as a consequence of the reform, while this was not the case for men. The gender differences in the impact of the reform on smoking and drinking should be understood in the context of the gender equalization process that affected women were experiencing when the reform took place. All in all, these patterns help explain the narrowing age gap in life expectancy between women and men in many developed countries while, at the same time, they provide important policy implications for middle-income countries that are undergoing those gender equalization processes right now.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that immigration from low-income countries reduces intergenerational mobility and thus steepens the social gradient in natives’ labor market outcomes, whereas immigration from high-income countries levels it.
Author Abstract: We examine how immigration affects natives’ relative prime-age labor market outcomes by economic class background, with class background established on the basis of parents’ earnings rank. Exploiting alternative sources of variation in immigration patterns across time and space, we find that immigration from low-income countries reduces intergenerational mobility and thus steepens the social gradient in natives’ labor market outcomes, whereas immigration from high-income countries levels it. These findings are robust with respect to a wide range of identifying assumptions. The analysis is based on high-quality population-wide administrative data from Norway, which is one of the rich-world countries with the most rapid rise in the immigrant population share over the past two decades. Our findings suggest that immigration can explain a considerable part of the observed relative decline in economic performance among natives with a lower-class background.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible examines the robustness of the optimal lockdown strategy to the postulated social welfare criterion.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cpRlF
Pierre Pestieau
Grégory Ponthière
Author Abstract: This paper examines the robustness of the optimal lockdown strategy to the postulated social welfare criterion. We show that utilitarianism can, under some conditions, imply a COVID-19 variant of Parfit’s (1984) Repugnant Conclusion: for any (interior) lockdown with life periods of low quality, there must be a stricter lockdown that is regarded as better, even though this reduces the quality of life periods even more. On the contrary, the ex post egalitarian criterion (giving priority to the worst-off ex post) implies zero lockdown. Varying between its minimal and its maximal levels, the optimal lockdown is not robust to the postulated ethical criterion. We also identify a general ethical dilemma between the goal of saving lives (modeled by the Survivors Number Count axiom) and the goal of giving priority to the worst-off (Hammond Equity).
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The meta-analysis provided in a new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that gay men earned less than heterosexual men; lesbian women earned more than heterosexual women, while bisexual men earned less than heterosexual men.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cpeNT
Nick Drydakis
Author Abstract: This meta-analysis utilizes 24 papers published between 2012-2020 that focus on earnings differences by sexual orientation. The papers cover the period between 1991 and 2018, and countries in Europe, North America and Australia. The meta-analysis indicates that gay men earned less than heterosexual men. Lesbian women earned more than heterosexual women, while bisexual men earned less than heterosexual men. Bisexual women earned less than heterosexual women. According to the meta-analysis, in data sets after 2010, gay men and bisexual men and women continue to experience earnings penalties, while lesbian women continue to experience earnings premiums. Τhe meta-regression estimates indicate relationships between study characteristics and the estimated earnings effects for sexual minorities. For instance, regions, sexual minority data set sizes, and earnings classifications influence the outcomes. The persistence of earnings penalties for gay men and bisexual men and women in the face of anti-discrimination policies represents a cause for concern and indicates the need for comprehensive legislation and workplace guidelines to guarantee that people receive fair pay and not experience any form of workplace inequality simply because of their sexual orientation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Norway extended to workers the right to self-certify sickness absence from work. A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics rules out large absence increases after the reform but provides evidence that the policy change caused a reduction in absence for female workers.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS: PDF
Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a policy reform in a municipality in Norway that extended to workers the right to self-certify sickness absence from work. After the reform, workers were no longer obliged to obtain a certificate from a physician to receive sickness benefits. They could call in sick directly to their line leader and had to engage in a counselling program organized by the employer. To estimate the effect of this reform, we contrast the change in sickness absence among employees who were granted the extended right to self-certify absence with absence among employees who had to obtain a physician’s certificate to be entitled to sickness benefits. We use both a standard difference-in-differences method and the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of the reform. We can rule out large positive effects on absence after the reform, with strong evidence that the policy change actually resulted in a reduction in absence for female workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics presents evidence to support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.
by Bruno Arpino, Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS: PDF
Author Abstract: Life-course studies have shown that early-life conditions predict health and socio-economic status in adult life. This study analyzes whether experiencing a traumatic event in childhood, i.e., the Second World War (WW2), affects subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We rely on a representative sample of European adults who were differentially exposed to WW2 during childhood as a result of their date and place of birth. Results show that exposure to WW2 increases SSPs, with socio-economic and health characteristics not playing a mediating role. War exposure also counterbalances the adverse effects of health impairments on SSPs, but it does not affect health outcomes per se. This fact, jointly with low mortality rates of the cohort under investigation, suggests that selective mortality and post-traumatic stress are not the main channels. Instead, the results support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics has shown that this had reduced infections substantially.
by Martin Kahanec, Lukáš Lafférs & Bernhard Schmidpeter
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS: PDF
Martin Kahanec
Author Abstract: In the absence of effective vaccination, mass testing and quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could help to mitigate pandemics and allow economies to stay open. We investigate the effects of repeated mass testing on the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using data from the first ever nationwide rapid antigen testing implemented in Slovakia in autumn 2020. After the first round of testing, only districts above an ex ante unknown threshold of test positivity were re-tested. Comparing districts above and below the threshold, we provide evidence that repeated mass antigen testing can temporarily reduce the number of new infections. Our results suggest that mass testing coupled with the quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could be an effective tool in mitigating pandemics. For lasting effects, re-testing at regular intervals would likely be necessary.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/coNTX
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of an increase in life expectancy on the level and the distribution of income in the presence of skill heterogeneity and automation. It shows analytically that an increase in life expectancy induces the replacement of low-skilled workers by automation capital and high-skilled workers. Moreover, it raises the skill premium and has an ambiguous effect on total income. A simulation exercise, based on US data, shows that an increase in life expectancy raises the level as well as the inequality of income. We consider redistributive policies that can mitigate some of the adverse effects of an increase in life expectancy for low-skilled workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that changes in legislation across time and between US states during the early twentieth century make parents chose to have fewer children in response to the constraints imposed.
The effect of compulsory schooling laws and child labor restrictions on fertility: evidence from the early twentieth century
by Yannay Shanan
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cn2UZ
Author Abstract: This paper uses census data to examine the impact of child labor restrictions imposed by compulsory schooling laws and child labor regulation on fertility. By exploiting variation induced by changes in legislation across time and between US states during the early twentieth century, I show that parents chose to have fewer children in response to the constraints imposed on the labor supply of their potential children and the increase in their expected quality. My findings suggest that compulsory schooling laws and child labor regulation contributed to the demographic transition in the US and provide additional empirical support for the notion that financial incentives play a role in determining household fertility decisions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds that commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate in Chile.
Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes
by Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cnd2y
Author Abstract: This paper uses international commodity prices and local natural resource endowments as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in local Chilean economic conditions to study how these shocks impact fertility behavior of families in a small, emerging open economy where non-marital fertility is common but parental obligations are not well enforced. We find that these commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate. We argue that these results are consistent with most women experiencing an income effect and a limited substitution effect from commodity booms. This is confirmed by looking at groups that would have experienced a larger income than substitution effect: higher-order births, births within marital relationships, and those by mothers who do not experience an increase in their employment probability respond more strongly to these commodity booms.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible demonstrate for Italy that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official statistical method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of local mortality.
by Augusto Cerqua, Roberta Di Stefano, Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS andPDF.
GLO Fellow Marco Letta
Author Abstract: Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for the USA that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after stay-at-home orders are implemented.
by Abel Brodeur, Idaliya Grigoryeva & Lamis Kattan
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics ACCESS. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cmSoY
Author Abstract: A clear understanding of community response to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the determinants of implementation and compliance with stay-at-home orders in the USA, focusing on trust and social capital. Using cell phone data measuring changes in non-essential trips and average distance traveled, we find that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after the stay-at-home orders are implemented, with larger effects for more stringent orders. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on post-order compliance is especially large for confidence in the press and governmental institutions, and relatively smaller for confidence in medicine and in science.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Japan that during Covid-19 school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and parents with different educational backgrounds.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS andPDF.
Author Abstract: The spread of the novel coronavirus disease caused schools in Japan to close to cope with the pandemic. In response to the school closures, parents of students were obliged to care for their children during the daytime, when children usually were at school. Did the increase in the burden of childcare influence parents’ mental health? Based on short panel data from mid-March to mid-April 2020, we explore how school closures influenced the mental health of parents with school-aged children. Using a fixed-effects model, we find that school closures led to mothers of students suffering from worse mental health compared to other females, while the fathers’ mental health did not differ from that of other males. This tendency is only observed for less-educated mothers who had children attending primary school, not for those with children attending junior high school nor for more-educated mothers. The contribution of this paper is showing that school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and parents with different educational backgrounds.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Portugal’s wage gap between vocational and general secondary education no support for either the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles or the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We document and analyse the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education in Portugal between 1994 and 2013. As Portuguese workers have been educated in different school systems, we have to distinguish between birth cohorts. Analysing the wage gaps within cohorts, we find no support for either the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles or the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career. We discover that the lifecycle wage profiles have shifted over time. We link the pattern of shifting cohort profiles to changes in the school system and in the structure of labour demand. We conclude that assessing the relative value of vocational education requires assessing how the vocational curriculum responds to changes in economic structure and technology. We show that the decline in assortative matching between workers and firms has benefited vocationally educated workers.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible finds for Germany that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. No comparable gender gap among employees is found.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic and the government-mandated measures to contain its spread affect the self-employed — particularly women — in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. We do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, e.g., the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible estimates the effects of an increase in free pre-school education in Englandon child development which were found to be small.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
by Jo Blanden, Emilia Del Bono, Kirstine Hansen & Birgitta Rabe
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS andPDF.
Author Abstract: Policy-makers wanting to support child development can choose to adjust the quantity or quality of publicly funded universal pre-school. To assess the impact of such changes, we estimate the effects of an increase in free pre-school education in England of about 3.5 months at age 3 on children’s school achievement at age 5. We exploit date-of-birth discontinuities that create variation in the length and starting age of free pre-school using administrative school records linked to nursery characteristics. Estimated effects are small overall, but the impact of the additional term is substantially larger in settings with the highest inspection quality rating but not in settings with highly qualified staff. Estimated effects fade out by age 7.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible argues that, in the presence of idiosyncratic ability shocks after childbirth, irreversible fertility decisions distort the resource allocation between the quantity and quality of children.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS andPDF.
Author Abstract: This research argues that, in the presence of idiosyncratic ability shocks after childbirth, irreversible fertility decisions distort the resource allocation between the quantity and quality of children. In underdeveloped environments, where family size is locked into large levels, education investment places a heavy financial burden on households, which deprives some competent children of learning opportunities. In contrast, in more developed environments, family size is locked into smaller levels, which facilitates education investment even for some children with low aptitude. A redistributive policy to mitigate the distortion is proposed for each stage.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK provides robust evidence for the Netherlands that policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labor supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cloOs
Author Abstract: We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in an analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. We first estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next, we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK provides robust evidence that housing market regulations in China significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce of married couples.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Housing market regulations and strategic divorce propensity in China
by James Alm, Weizheng Lai and Xun Li
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cloDS
Author Abstract: In China’s regulated housing markets, a married couple may choose strategically to divorce in order to purchase more houses and/or purchase with more favorable financial conditions. Our study examines the propensity for strategic divorce induced by housing market regulations in China. To overcome the difficulty of using conventional divorce data to distinguish between a “true” divorce and a strategic (or a “fake”) divorce, we design an identification strategy using data on internet searches for divorce- and marriage-related keywords in 32 Chinese major cities from 2009 through 2016. Our difference-in-differences estimates provide robust evidence that housing market regulations significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce. Our results also show that the increase in the propensity for strategic divorce is weaker in cities with higher male–female ratios and with stronger Confucian ideologies. These findings point to the role that housing market regulations play in distorting a family’s choices, as well as to the importance for policymakers to consider unintended impacts of regulations.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK argues that the rewards and punishments that incentivize religious behavior are more effective for speakers of languages without inflectional future tense.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Heaven can wait: future tense and religiosity
by Astghik Mavisakalyan, Yashar Tarverdi and Clas Weber
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE ACCESS: Readlink: https://rdcu.be/clovY
Author Abstract: This paper identifies a new source of differences in religiosity: the type of future tense marking in language. We argue that the rewards and punishments that incentivise religious behaviour are more effective for speakers of languages without inflectional future tense. Consistent with this prediction, we show that speakers of languages without inflectional future tense are more likely to be religious and to take up the short-term costs associated with religiosity. What is likely to drive this behaviour, according to our results, is the relatively greater appeal of the religious rewards to these individuals. Our analysis is based on within-country regressions comparing individuals with identical observable characteristics who speak a different language.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST with free OPEN ACCESS shows that past consumption of culture is associated with higher happiness levels during crises.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Culture and mental health resilience in times of COVID-19
by Annie Tubadji
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: This paper aims to clarify the role of culture as a public good that serves to preserve mental health. It tests the evolutionary hypothesis that cultural consumption triggers a microeconomic mechanism for the self-defense of mental health from uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a natural experiment of cultural consumption under increased uncertainty. Using primary data from a pilot survey conducted online during the pandemic and applying Probit and Heckman selection models, the study analyzes levels of happiness and propensity to help others. The results suggest that past consumption of culture is associated with higher happiness levels during crises. Moreover, spontaneous cultural practices (such as group singing) during times of uncertainty are associated with an increase in the pro-social propensity to help others. These findings highlight culture as a tool for promoting mental health at the micro level and social capital resilience at the aggregate level.
