Category Archives: Article

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. New article by GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur and Leonardo Baccini & Stephen Weymouth now published ONLINE FIRST with FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new article published in the Journal of Population Economics suggests that Donald Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases in the United States had been 5 percent lower.

COVID-19 brought the change
Photo by Charles Deluvio on Unsplash

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Abel Brodeur

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
by Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Weymouth, Stephen
Pre-publication revised GLO DP 710 [pre.].

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 34, Issue 2/2021. FREE ACCESS to the published version including the PDF.

GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic. New article on the USA published ONLINE FIRST with OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics discusses why it is so vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic and reveal the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior in the USA.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic

by Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Zahn, Matthew V.; Belot, Michèle; van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline; Choi, Syngjoo; Jamison, Julian C. & Tripodi, Egon


Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue 2/2021.
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdCjh OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: Given the role of human behavior in the spread of disease, it is vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic. This paper examines factors associated with the adoption of self-protective health behaviors, such as social distancing and mask wearing, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA. These behaviors not only reduce an individual’s own risk of infection but also limit the spread of disease to others. Despite these dual benefits, universal adoption of these behaviors is not assured. We focus on the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior, relying on data collected in April 2020 during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data include information on income, gender and race along with unique variables relevant to the current pandemic, such as work arrangements and housing quality. We find that higher income is associated with larger changes in self-protective behaviors. These gradients are partially explained by the fact that people with less income are more likely to report circumstances that make adopting self-protective behaviors more difficult, such as an inability to tele-work. Both in the USA and elsewhere, policies that assume universal compliance with self-protective measures—or that otherwise do not account for socioeconomic differences in the costs of doing so—are unlikely to be effective or sustainable.

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Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing. New article by GLO Fellows John P. de New & David C. Ribar and colleagues published ONLINE FIRST with FREE ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics indicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution suggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing

by Botha, Ferdi; de New, John P.; de New, Sonja C.; Ribar, David C. & Salamanca, Nicolás


Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue2/2021.
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdBX6 FREE ACCESS to PDF. Previous version GLO DP 661.

GLO Fellows John P. de New & David C. Ribar

Author Abstract: Australia’s economy abruptly entered into a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. Related labour market shocks on Australian residents have been substantial due to business closures and social distancing restrictions. Government measures are in place to reduce flow-on effects to people’s financial situations, but the extent to which Australian residents suffering these shocks experience lower levels of financial wellbeing, including associated implications for inequality, is unknown. Using novel data we collected from 2078 Australian residents during April to July 2020, we show that experiencing a labour market shock during the pandemic is associated with a 29% lower level of perceived financial wellbeing, on average. Unconditional quantile regressions indicate that lower levels of financial wellbeing are present across the entire distribution, except at the very top. Distribution analyses indicate that the labour market shocks are also associated with higher levels of inequality in financial wellbeing. Financial counselling and support targeted at people who experience labour market shocks could help them to manage financial commitments and regain financial control during periods of economic uncertainty.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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China research: Does social participation improve cognitive abilities of the elderly? New article by GLO Fellow Shu Cai published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly in China.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Does social participation improve cognitive abilities of the elderly?

by Cai, Shu

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdjPu

GLO Fellow Shu Cai

Shu Cai

Author Abstract: This paper examines the effect of social participation on cognitive performance using data from a longitudinal survey of the elderly in China. It addresses the problem of endogenous participation by exploiting the variation in changes in social participation that are driven by changes in community service for social activities. The results show that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly. The point estimates indicate that engaging in social activity raises cognitive scores by 29% of a standard deviation.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy? New article published ONLINE FIRST with free READLINK in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that Northern Italy around 1650–1799 was a more “Malthusian” society than England at that time.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy?

by Maja Pedersen, Claudia Riani & Paul Sharp

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cdgq1

Author Abstract: The Malthusian model, which implies a long-run interaction between demography and living standards, forms a cornerstone of our understanding of comparative economic development, as postulated by unified growth theory. Its empirical validity has been supported by a number of studies, most of which examine England. In Northern Italy, however, there might have been a reversed “preventive check.” We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Italian data from ca. 1650–1799 and find some evidence for this, but also for diminishing returns and thus a more “Malthusian” society than in, for example, England at that time.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Azita Berar on ‘From “Future of Work” to “Building Better”: 2021, the year of a Global Policy Rethink ?’ GLO Policy Brief No. 4.

Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.

GLO Policy Brief No. 4 – Theme 3. Future of Work – Covid-19


From “Future of Work” to “Building Better”: 2021, the year of a Global Policy Rethink ?

by Azita Berar

A year ago, 2019 ended with a pick in analyses, forecasts and policy debates on what the “Future of Work” would or should look like. Hopes and fears were expressed  about the implications of the latest technological innovations , labelled  “Industry 4.0”, for labour markets and more fundamentally for society and humanity. It is bewildering to see how, in less than 10 months, since the onset of  the COVID-19 pandemic as a global threat, the center of focus of both analysis and policy has radically shifted to  entrenched inequalities and vulnerabilities and the deep running fault lines in our political and economic systems.

As 2020 closed down, we submit that the COVID-19 crisis has done more in generating a new momentum for paradigm shift and for indicating the avenues for a social reconstruct than all the preceding years of analysis, forecasts and policy negotiations around the Future of Work.

____________________

What we should know

  • 2019 ended with a flurry of publications, national and international policy discussion on the “Future of Work” engaging  multiple stakeholders. These discussions had started mid-decade, triggered by the rapid acceleration in a new and – some argued, radically different- generation of technological innovations. [1] Hopes were raised by limitless opportunities that these frontier innovations could bring to all sectors of economy, work and life. Fears concerned “externalities”, in particular regarding the potential job destruction  and displacement effects of these technologies as well as the slow pace with which, new norms of governance, including  cross-border rules, were developed. The new social construct was lagging far behind the pace of technological innovations and their adoption in advanced and emerging economies.
  • A year later, as 2020 has closed, it is astounding to see the tremendous shift in perspective and policy debate. The COVID-19 pandemic humbled the humanity by exposing its fragility on a planetary scale. It left no aspect of life and no sector of the economy unaffected. The pandemic is still raging,  forcing continuous reevaluation of human losses and multi-faceted political, social, economic and emotional fallouts. In this Brief, we are not focusing on the sobering and evolving socio-economic impact [2], but on what is certain: the powerful revelatory impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has already had in 2020.
  • The pandemic shed light- like no other crisis before- on the deep running inequalities and vulnerabilities within societies and across countries and continents. By accelerating pre-existing trends and  exposing  the fault lines on a scale and in such a compelling manner that left no room for denial, the crisis brought to the fore, the inadequacy of policy paradigms, the need for alternative policy approaches and the quest for a better and fairer world.
  • The unfulfilled promises of globalization, the environmental exhaustion, the rising inequalities in distribution of wealth and income, the crisis of full and decent employment in all of its facets, as much as the persisting structural discriminations based on gender, race, refugee or migrant status, were not a revelation per se. These trends have been well documented and discussed in policy and experts’ circles, over the years. In 2020,  since and as the result of the global spread of COVID-19, the statistics and data buried in numerous analytic and policy reports came to life and wore  human faces, making  it an everyday visible reality for everyone across the globe.
  • The pandemic showed the insecure work and life patterns of those women and men  who work in  the informal economy, 62 percent of the global workforce, who cannot exercise social distancing, apply basic hygiene preventive rules, access health services, or stop work under conditions of lockdown, with no access to alternative income support  and safety nets. School closures vividly exposed, the deep divides in access to quality education and to digital technology for millions of children and students enrolled at all levels of education.
  • It was sobering to observe that in 2020, the year that marks the 25th anniversary of the first World Conference on Women and the launch of a most comprehensive platform of action for promoting gender equality, women  in advanced and developing economies alike, remained the default unpaid care takers at home, and occupied most of “essential” frontline occupations in underpaid sectors with part time and insecure contracts.
  • Youth who have not fully recovered from the employment crisis in the wake of 2008/09 global crisis, have been once more, massively  impacted, this time with a twin challenge of completing their education under conditions of lockdown, and  facing the prospect of  another protracted transition and stalled mobility into work, adulthood and autonomy.
  • Positive trends recorded in some of global indicators of the 2030 SDG agenda, such as reduction in poverty, hunger and malnutrition have  reversed course, with a huge humanitarian crisis looming in the horizon.
  • But the pandemic also brought the “Future of Work” faster and closer to home. The expansion of remote and online work, pointed to a new dualism in the labour markets,  jobs that can be performed remotely and online and those renamed- essential services and critical jobs – that could not. The expansion of online teleworking , beyond the flexibility and resilience it enables, is forcing managers and employees alike to re-consider the value of inter-personal and social interactions and to re-think the nature of future workplace arrangements.
  • As demand expanded exponentially for the digital delivery sector and other on-demand services, the pandemic exposed the ambiguity in the   prevailing business models and employment relationships in these sectors.  In some instances, this increased visibility of these types of  new non-standard forms of employment accelerated the adoption and  implementation of new legal and social protection norms including rise in minimum wages.
  • More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis, by laying bare inequalities and socio-economic divides of various types, questioned the fundamental underpinnings  of policies and policy paradigms enacted over last decades, that allowed and deepened such uneven and unfair outcomes. In short, the pandemic diffused across societies, a new sense of urgency and a moral imperative for a rethink of policy.

Will 2021 be the inflection point to unleash and accelerate such a paradigm shift?

  • 2020 was an exceptional year of reflection  and soul-searching on what is essential and critical to humans? On the relationship between humans, nature and science? What determines resilience to future shocks and what scope should there be for national sovereignty,  and for inter-dependence, solidarity and cooperation?
  • Exceptional measures and  massive stimulus packages, were announced and partially deployed in major economies,  to deal with the most immediate impact of the pandemic and to prevent a catastrophic socio-economic collapse. These measures were exceptional  not only in size, surpassing tens of Trillion dollars already in June 2020, but also in the range and types of policy levers used. There was not much hesitation to push aside stringent prudential rules introduced by the same economies and institutions with respect to the debt to GDP ratio, or the time limit for the debt payments, for example. [3]
  • Beyond immediate relief and recovery packages, calls to “Reset Capitalism”, “Renew the social contract”, reinvent solidarity, rethink public- private cooperation…. are emanating from diverse stakeholders with often diverging interests. More significantly, the importance of  interventionist role of the state in sustaining the economy and jobs and in leading environmental transitions, is rehabilitated and valued. The demand for a stronger role of public policy and  public investment in health, education, universal social protection, basic income have resurfaced to the top of mainstream policy debate and agenda.
  • The serious consideration in policy circles and political campaigns, of  New Green Deal proposals, Public  Job Guarantee schemes , local community development strategies in the United States alone, is a testimony of the extent to which, the pendulum has swung away from orthodox market fundamentalism.  Although these ideas are not new, they have  come out of background, gained in vigor and adherence in a short period of time.
  • It is yet early to judge, how far and how bold will the recovery plans go and what will be the scope of this “rethink”, beyond remedial and recovery responses. Will  recovery plans, as announced and promised, become accelerators of digitalization and  transition to low carbon economy and embed fiscal policies that promote greater equality and “just transitions”? 
  • Are these circumstantial  crisis-induced responses that will deflate once the health hazard and the ensuing economic recession are seen to have been brought  under control? Will once again, reform be stalled and austerity replace stimuli, as in the aftermath of 2008/9 crisis.  Or will it be really different this time, as more and more parties think that a return to status quo ante is not an option, and the future cannot be about building back but building better and different!

Will 2021 be seen as an inflection point as much as 1945 ushered a new era of social innovation and reconstruct, following the devastation of the second World War?

  • In the current global political context of divided societies, weakened democracies, growing mistrust in institutions and fragmented multilateralism, the odds for a collective political will to emerge and to lead a new wave of reform, may not seem very high.  However the pandemic and its consequences have also awakened and re-mobilized forces of citizenship, advocates of participatory and solidary development and democracy and re-invigorated labour and social movements. These factors combined have generated such high  demands and societal expectations that cannot be left unanswered and  are not ready to recede.
  • Paradigm shifts do not occur overnight, however the COVID-19 crisis by sweeping away with such speed a few more myths associated with market fundamentalism and unleashed globalization, has brought us so much closer to the imperative and possibility of  building a new social trust.

The year 2020 has closed with the pandemic still ravaging lives, economies and societies across the globe. Humanity is entering 2021 with the renewed  hope in science and in new vaccines- which signal that the end of this pandemic might be in sight- but uncertain about how far away and at what cost. More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis has re-ordered our value system and reshaped the policy debate  by pointing out that  the problem is not technology but the deep political, economic and social divides. The shock and response have created a new momentum for a fundamental policy rethink and action in a way that all the preceding discussions on the Future of Work had not succeeded.  Will the momentum be seized? What is certain is that 2021 will be looked at as the inflection year, where a new course seemed possible through a broad understanding of human agency, embracing multi-layered social mobilizations and political leaderships.
__________________

[1] The Policy Brief No. 1 on Automation, inequality and jobs, in this Policy Forum, included references to major reports on Future of Work published since 2013. It also highlighted that most analyses overlooked the specific dynamics of technological adoption and labour markets in low income countries with large swaths of rural and informal economy workers.
[2] For regular updates and estimates see the following websites: COVID-19 Worldwide Dashboard – WHO Live World Statistics: Socio-economic impact of COVID-19 | UNDP; ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. 6th edition.
[3] It should be noted however that this flexibility, sits in sharp contrast to the  lack of solidarity and international financial support to fiscal policies in particular, in middle-income developing countries. Coordinated stimuli response and use of multilateral institutional mechanisms have been disappointing. In particular the combined response of G20, World Bank and IMF are falling short of providing the financial and fiscal space needed for an adequate COVID-19 response in much of mid-income developing countries.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

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Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children. New research paper by GLO Fellow published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway that miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility has similar negative effects for all three children on female earnings in the short-run, while a catch up afterwards shows only for the third child.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children
by Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS .

Author Abstract: We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program. New research paper by GLO Fellow Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra published ONLINE FIRST & FREE READ in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics examined a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia to show that it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program

by Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccQWs

GLO Fellow Diana Contreras Suarez

Author Abstract: We use data from the Familias en Acción program in Colombia to examine the spillover or indirect effects of a conditional cash transfer program. Our results show that the program has significant spillover effects: it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness. The benefits are stronger for women and the elderly in the short run and for men in the medium run. Our analysis suggests that these spillovers are driven by increased access to information in the household that creates a public good.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Identifying ethnic occupational segregation. New research paper by GLO Fellows Dafeng Xu and Yuxin Zhang published ONLINE FIRST & FREE READ in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics is studying Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA to find high degrees of occupational segregation.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Identifying ethnic occupational segregation

by Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccPoZ

GLO Fellows Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Author Abstract: Many studies consider occupational segregation among the immigrant population from a given birth country as a whole. This ignores potential ethnic heterogeneity within an immigrant population and may underestimate occupational segregation. We focus on Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA—then a major immigrant population with a high degree of ethnic diversity, including Russian, Jewish, German, and Polish ethnics—and study occupational segregation by ethnicity. We apply a machine learning ethnicity classification approach to 1930 US census data based on name and mother tongue. Using the constructed ethnicity variable, we show high degrees of occupational segregation by ethnicity within the Russian-born immigrant population in the USA. For example, Jews, German ethnics, and Polish ethnics were concentrated in trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, respectively. We also find evidence that Russian-born immigrants’ labor market outcomes were associated with networks measured by the spatial concentration of co-ethnics—particularly more established ones—but not by the concentrations of other ethnic groups.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics suggests on the basis of a historical model analysis that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria

by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Open Access

Author Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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The intergenerational effects of birth order on education. New article by GLO Fellow Enkelejda Havari and Marco Savegnago. Now published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for European countries that parents who are firstborns are better educated and have more educated children compared with later born parents.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

The intergenerational effects of birth order on education
by Enkelejda Havari and Marco Savegnago

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS!!

GLO Fellow Enkelejda Havari

Author Abstract: We study the intergenerational effect of birth order on educational attainment using rich data from different European countries included in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The survey allows us to link two or more generations in different countries. We use reduced-form models linking children’s education to parents’ education, controlling for a large number of characteristics measured at different points in time. We find that not only are parents who are themselves firstborns better educated, on average, but they also have more-educated children compared with laterborn parents (intergenerational effect). Results are stronger for mothers than for fathers, and for daughters than for sons. In terms of heterogeneous effects, we find that girls born to firstborn mothers have higher educational attainment than girls born to laterborn mothers. We do not find evidence for potential channels other than parental education that could explain the intergenerational effect of parental birth order.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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Journal of Population Economics: Issue 1, 2021 published and Webinar on November 19, 2020.

Issue 1, 2021 of the Journal of Population Economics is already published online. See below the list of articles and access links to read the contributions.

November 19, 2020 (Thursday); (2-5 pm CET):
Journal of Population Economics Online Workshop (Webinar).
Hosted by UNU-MERIT. Maastricht .
Open to the general public.
Mark your calendar. Detailed agenda and registration information will be provided in time through the GLO & POP @ UNU-MERIT websites.

AGENDA:
Presentation of the Kuznets Prize 2021
Highlights of Issue 1/2021
– Lead article
– 4 articles on Covid-19
Meeting with the authors, prize winners and editors.
*******

LEAD ARTICLE
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a warREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

HOUSEHOLD
Lixing Li, Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou: Intra-household bargaining power, surname inheritance, and human capital accumulationREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkY
Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton: Does female breadwinning make partnerships less healthy or less stable?READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xk0

MIGRATION
Jakub Lonsky: Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities — OPEN ACCESS: PDF
Sandra V. Rozo, Therese Anders & Steven Raphael: Deportation, crime, and victimizationREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlf
Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Nicolau Martin Bassols & Judit Vall Castello: Safety at work and immigration — OPEN ACCESS: PDF

COVID-19 (Springer presents all Covid-19 articles open accessible)
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlh
Domenico Depalo: True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xlj
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xll
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19 — OPEN ACCESSIBLE; READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xln

KUZNETS PRIZE
2021 Kuznets Prize awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, and Wei Shi

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Railroads, specialization, and population growth: evidence from the first globalization. New article by GLO Fellow Francisco Gallego and colleagues. Now published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN READ in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that railroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Railroads, specialization, and population growth: evidence from the first globalization

by Andres Forero, Francisco A. Gallego, Felipe Gonzalez and Matıas Tapia

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK

GLO Fellow Francisco A. Gallego

Railway

Author Abstract: We explore how railroads affected population growth during the first globalization (1865–1920) in Chile. We look at areas with a strong comparative advantage in agriculture using novel data that document 60 years of railroad construction. Using instrumental variables, we present four main findings. First, railroads increased both urban and rural population growth. Second, the impact was stronger in areas with more potential for agricultural expansion. Third, railroads increased specialization in agriculture when combined with a high level of the real exchange rate. And fourth, railroads had little effect on human capital and fertility. These results suggest that the effects of transportation technologies depend on existing macroeconomic conditions.

Featured image: photo-Paul-Jarvis-on-Unsplash

Access to the recently published Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 29K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 26, 2020.

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Labor market effects of a work-first policy for refugees. New article by GLO Fellow Jacob Nielsen Arendt. Now published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics studies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Labor market effects of a work-first policy for refugees

by Jacob Nielsen Arendt

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS!!
GLO Fellow Jacob Nielsen Arendt
GLO Discussion Paper No. 662, 2020

Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country, Denmark. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up entry into regular jobs for men, but they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. Long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.

Access to the recently published Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.

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The inter-generational fertility effect of an abortion ban. New article by GLO Fellow Federico Gutierrez. Now published ONLINE FIRST free access in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that individuals whose mothers were affected by an abortion ban Romania employed in the mid-1960s had a significantly lower demand for children than those who were not.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

The inter-generational fertility effect of an abortion ban
by Federico Gutierrez

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink

GLO Fellow Federico Gutierrez

Featured image: dawid-zawila-on-unsplash

Author Abstract: This study examines the extent to which banning women from having abortions affected the fertility of their children, who did not face a similar legal constraint. Using multiple censuses from Romania, I follow men and women born around the time Romania banned abortion in the mid-1960s to investigate the demand for children over their life cycle. The empirical approach combines elements of regression discontinuity design and the Heckman selection model. The results indicate that individuals whose mothers were affected by the ban had significantly lower demand for children than those who were not. One-third of the decline is explained by inherited socio-economic status.

Fig. 1

Access to the recently published Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.

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Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments. Article by GLO Fellows Niaz Asadullah and Zahra Siddique & colleagues. Now published ONLINE FIRST free access in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics studies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 2/2021. Free ReadlinkDownload PDF
GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020

GLO Fellows M. Niaz Asadullah & Zahra Siddique

Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age 18. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 27K journal downloads & over 80 Google Scholar cites as of October 18, 2020.

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Children, unhappiness and family finances: New article by David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics suggests that children may cause unhappiness because of challenging family finances.

Read more in:

Children, unhappiness and family finances

David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7Z4b
GLO Discussion Paper No. 561 free Download PDF

GLO Fellows David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark

Author Abstract: The common finding of a zero or negative correlation between the presence of children and parental well-being continues to generate research interest. We consider international data, including well over one million observations on Europeans from 11 years of Eurobarometer surveys. We first replicate this negative finding, both in the overall data and then for most different marital statuses. Children are expensive: controlling for financial difficulties turns our estimated child coefficients positive. We argue that difficulties paying the bills explain the pattern of existing results by parental education and income and by country income and social support. Last, we underline that not all children are the same, with stepchildren commonly having a more negative correlation with well-being than children from the current relationship.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 25K journal downloads & over 70 Google Scholar cites as of October 10, 2020.

Ends;

True Covid-19 Mortality Rates from Administrative Data by GLO Fellow Domenico Depalo. Now published ONLINE FIRST free access in the Journal of Population Economics!

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics demonstrates how to use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, a hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data 
by
Depalo, Domenico

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 1/2020. Free Readlink Download PDF
GLO Discussion Paper No. 630, 2020

GLO Fellow Domenico Depalo

Author Abstract: In this paper I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information is relevant for the policy maker, to make decisions, and for the public, to adopt appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias I use partial identification to derive these quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values, or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions, but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than before 2020. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from Covid-19 are between 0.1% and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed for long time. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.

Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4.
PDF free accessible.

Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.

Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00800-7 PDF free accessible.

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2021 Kuznets Prize of the Journal of Population Economics Awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, and Wei Shi.

2021 Kuznets Prize Awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, & Wei Shi as announced by the office of the Journal of Population Economics.

Yun Qiu (Jinan University), Xi Chen (Yale University), and Wei Shi (Jinan University) will receive the 2021 Kuznets Prize for their article (please click title below for OPEN ACCESS)

Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

which was published in the Journal of Population Economics (2020), 33(4), pp. 1127–1172. The annual prize honors the best article published in the Journal of Population Economics in the previous year.

The award will be given to the authors during a special public journal event in the Fall of 2020.

Biographical Abstracts

Yun Qiu is an assistant professor at Institute for Economic and Social Research at Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). She obtained a Ph.D. in Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics from the Ohio State University. She is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Yun uses applied econometric techniques to conduct research in areas focused on (1) understanding the health and productivity impacts of extreme weather and air pollution in China; (2) characterizing the influencing factors of the spread of COVID-19 and its socioeconomic impacts; (3) valuing coastal adaptation strategies and urban amenities.

Xi Chen is an associate professor of Health Policy and Economics at Yale University. He obtained a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Cornell University. His research endeavors focus on improving public policies on population aging, life course health, and global health systems. Dr. Chen is a consultant at the United Nations Institutions, Fellow at the Global Labor Organization (GLO), former President of the China Health Policy and Management Society, and Butler-Williams Scholar at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Dr. Chen’s work has been published in prestigious economics, science and medical journals, recognized through numerous awards, and widely covered in media.

Wei Shi is an associate professor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). His research interests include topics in econometrics, real estate economics, and applied microeconomics. His current research focuses on panel data models with spatial interactions and multidimensional heterogeneities, peer effects models, and applications of spatial econometric models. He is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the Ohio State University.

Abstract of the Winning Paper

“This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.”

About the Kuznets Prize

The Journal of Population Economics awards the ‘Kuznets Prize’ for the best paper published in the Journal of Population Economics in the previous year. Starting from 2014 the Prize has been awarded annually. Papers are judged by the Editors of the Journal.

Simon Kuznets, a pioneer in population economics, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University and the 1971 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, died on July 10, 1985. Professor Kuznets was born 1901 in Pinsk, Belarus, and came to the United States in 1922. He earned his Bachelor of Science in 1923, a Master of Arts degree in 1924 and his doctorate in 1926, all from Columbia University. During World War II he was Associate Director of the Bureau of Planning and Statistics on the War Production Board, and he served on the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1927 to 1960. Mr. Kuznets was a faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania for 24 years and Professor of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University from 1954 until he joined Harvard University in 1960. He retired in 1971 and was given the title of George F. Baker Professor Emeritus of Economics. He was a former president of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association.

Previous Winners

The Kuznets Prize (please click titles for READ LINKS FOR FREE) has previously been awarded to:

2020: Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley), Chandan Kumar Jha (Le Moyne College, Madden School of Business), and Sudipta Sarangi (Virginia Tech) for their article “Ancestral ecological endowments and missing women,“ Journal of Population Economics (2019), 32(4): pp. 1101-1123.

2019: Yoo-Mi Chin (Baylor University) and Nicholas Wilson (Reed College) for their article “Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic,” Journal of Population Economics 31(2): pp. 429-451.

2018: Chunbei Wang and Le Wang (University of Oklahoma) for their article “Knot yet: Minimum marriage age law, marriage delay, and earnings,” Journal of Population Economics 30(3): pp. 771-804.

2017: Binnur Balkan (Stockholm School of Economics) and Semih Tumen (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) for their article “Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey,” Journal of Population Economics 29(3): pp. 657-686.

2016: Loren Brandt (University of Toronto), Aloysius Siow (University of Toronto), and Hui Wang (Peking University) for their article “Compensating for unequal parental investments in schooling,” Journal of Population Economics 28: 423-462.

2015: Haoming Liu (National University of Singapore) for his article “The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China’s one-child policy”, Journal of Population Economics 27: 565-602.

2014: Paolo Masella (University of Essex) for his article “National Identity and Ethnic Diversity“, Journal of Population Economics 26: 437-454.

Period 2010-2012: Richard W. Evans (Brigham Young University), Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University) and Zhong Zhao (Renmin University) for their article “The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births“, Journal of Population Economics 23: 1-36.

Period 2007-2009: Makoto Hirazawa (Nagoya University) and Akira Yakita (Nagoya University) for their article “Fertility, child care outside the home, and pay-as-you-go social security“, Journal of Population Economics 22: 565-583.

Period 2004-2006: Jinyoung Kim (Korea University) received the Kuznets Prize for his article “Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion,” Journal of Population Economics 18: 041-067.

Period 2001–2003: Olympia Bover (Bank of Spain) and Manuel Arellano (CEMFI), for their article “Learning about migration decisions from the migrants: Using complementary datasets to model intra-regional migrations in Spain”, Journal of Population Economics 15:357–380.

Period 1998–2000: David C. Ribar (The George Washington University), for his article “The socioeconomic consequences of young women’s childbearing: Reconciling disparate evidence”, Journal of Population Economics 12: 547–565.

Period 1995–1997: James R. Walker (University of Wisconsin-Madison), for his article “The effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior”, Journal of Population Economics, 8: 223–251.

The effect of paid vacation on health: evidence from Sweden. New article published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics challenges the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.

Read more in:

The effect of paid vacation on health: evidence from Sweden

Thomas Hofmarcher

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7sJK

Author Abstract: This study estimates the causal effect of paid vacation on health. Using register data on the universe of central government employees in Sweden, I exploit an age-based rule stipulated in the collective agreement covering these employees. I achieve identification by combining a regression discontinuity with a difference-in-differences design to control for time-invariant differences between consecutive birth cohorts and isolate the true effect at two separate discontinuities at ages 30 and 40. The main results indicate that an increase of three paid vacation days at age 30 and four days at age 40 do not cause significant changes in health, as proxied by visits to specialized outpatient care, inpatient admissions, and long-term sick leaves. These findings challenge the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

Ends;

Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19: Paper by Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano now published ONLINE FIRST free accessible in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates for the Italian case the effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19 and the implications for the future.

Read more in:

Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19

Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano

Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible.
Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 541, 2020

GLO Fellows Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano and GLO Affiliate Luca Bonacini

Author Abstract: In the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home (WFH) became of great importance for a large share of employees since it represents the only option to both continue working and minimise the risk of virus exposure. Uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and future contagion waves even led companies to view WFH as a ‘new normal’ way of working. Based on influence function regression methods, this paper explores the potential consequences in the labour income distribution related to a long-lasting increase in WFH feasibility among Italian employees. Results show that a positive shift in WFH feasibility would be associated with an increase in average labour income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in the opportunity to WFH would favour male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. However, this ‘forced innovation’ would benefit more employees living in provinces have been more affected by the novel coronavirus. WFH thus risks exacerbating pre-existing inequalities in the labour market, especially if it will not be adequately regulated. As a consequence, this study suggests that policies aimed at alleviating inequality, like income support measures (in the short run) and human capital interventions (in the long run), should play a more important compensating role in the future.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.

Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4.
PDF free accessible.

Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.

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Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries. New article published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Research Director Danny Blanchflower.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics provides global evidence that the U-shaped happiness-age curve is everywhere.

Read more in:

Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries

David G. Blanchflower

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7kyO

Also GLO Discussion Paper No. 530, 2020. A previous version was NBER Working Paper #26641, January 2020.

Watch also his related GLO Virtual Seminar presentation on Despair, Unhappiness and Age. Video of seminar.

GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower & Research Director GLO

Author Abstract: A large empirical literature has debated the existence of a U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in 145 countries, including 109 developing countries, controlling for education and marital and labor force status, among others, on samples of individuals under the age of 70. The U-shape of the curve is forcefully confirmed, with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50 in separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the findings using such data largely confirm the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the age of the minima has risen over time in Europe and the USA.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

Ends;

Education and gender role attitudes. New article by Huichao Du, Yun Xiao & GLO Fellow Liqiu Zhao published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds that the extra schooling induced by the compulsory schooling reform from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law in China leads to more egalitarian gender role attitudes.

Read more in:

Education and gender role attitudes

Huichao Du, Yun Xiao & Liqiu Zhao

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b68hg

GLO Fellow Liqiu Zhao

Author Abstract: This paper examines whether education plays an important role in shaping individuals’ gender role attitudes. We exploit exogenous variation in temporal and geographical impacts of the 1986 Compulsory Education Law in China, which reduced inequality in compulsory school attendance across regions. Using the data from the China General Social Survey, we find that the extra schooling induced by the compulsory schooling reform leads to more egalitarian gender role attitudes. Education’s liberalizing effect is concentrated among females and urban residents. However, education’s impacts on gender-equal behavior are much weaker than impacts on attitudes. Finally, we discuss the potential channels through which education shapes individuals’ gender-role attitudes.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 22K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 13, 2020.

Ends;

Excess churn in integrated labor markets. New article published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Bernt Bratsberg, Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states. This leads to a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of (typically native) employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar migrant workers.

Read more in:

Bernt Bratsberg, Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed

Excess churn in integrated labor markets

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62qv

Author Abstract: The common European labor market enhances allocative efficiency, but certain institutional features may also trigger inefficient migration. As a job in a high-income country entails generous welfare and social insurance entitlements, migrants’ reservation wages may lie below their opportunity cost of labor. We show that this gives rise to an externality when employers and migrant workers can pass some of their remuneration costs onto taxpayers. Once welfare benefit entitlement is secured, the reservation wage of the migrant rises, giving the firm an incentive to replace the worker with a similar migrant willing to accept lower pay. This leads to excess churn—a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar workers. Based on Norwegian data, we present evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

Ends;

Intra-household bargaining power, surname inheritance, and human capital accumulation. New article by Lixing Li and GLO Fellows Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for China that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother.

Read more in:

Intra-household bargaining power, surname inheritance, and human capital accumulation

Lixing Li, Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1
FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62py

GLO Fellows Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou

Author Abstract: This research sheds light on the link between social norms and economic development. It explores the determinants of inheriting the mother’s surname in China and its implications for children’s health status and education outcomes. It establishes that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother. Moreover, these children have superior health and education outcomes, reflecting predominantly the impact of women’s higher bargaining power on children’s human capital accumulation.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

Ends;

Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement. New article by Hendrik Jürges & colleagues published OPEN ACCESS & ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada shows that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children.

Read more in:

Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement

Hendrik Jürges, Luca Stella, Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz

Published ONLINE FIRST.
Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34
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Author Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of households’ exposure to violent conflict on children’s educational attainment in primary school, studying cognitive and non-cognitive skills as possible causal channels. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-level variation in the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2005). We show that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children as measured by grade point averages. We find that non-cognitive rather than cognitive skills are the channels through which exposure affects children’s educational achievement.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.

Ends;

Does female breadwinning make partnerships less healthy or less stable? New article by GLO Fellows Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics examines whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. The study finds a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability than has been found in prior studies.

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Does female breadwinning make partnerships less healthy or less stable?

Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton

Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1
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GLO Fellows Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton

Author Abstract: Social norms can have a persistent influence on outcomes. Since the end of World War II, men have been the primary breadwinner in most households in the developed world, and US data from the late twentieth century suggests violation of this norm stresses partnerships. Is this still true? We examine whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. We find a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability in OLS models for mixed-gender couples than has been found in prior studies. Transitions into female breadwinning are problematic mainly for cohabiting couples and especially so for younger people and less-educated men. These results suggest that social norms may be weakening, but mating market dynamics may also play a role. We find some evidence that cohabiting women in Australia who out-earn their partners subsequently re-partner with men who have higher earnings relative to themselves.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
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Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Paper by GLO Fellow Fabrizio Patriarca, Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo now published ONLINE FIRST free accessible in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates for the Italian case how to identify the pandemic early in “dirty” data and how to measure the success of lockdowns.

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Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures

Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca

Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible.
Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 534, 2020

GLO Fellow Fabrizio Patriarca

Author Abstract: Identifying structural breaks in the dynamics of COVID-19 contagion is crucial to promptly assess policies and evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures. However, official data record infections after a critical and unpredictable delay. Moreover, people react to the health risks of the virus and also anticipate lockdowns. All of this makes it complex to quickly and accurately detect changing patterns in the virus’s infection dynamic. We propose a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in the time series of COVID-19 cases. We consider the case of Italy, an early-affected country that was unprepared for the situation, and detect the dates of structural breaks induced by three national lockdowns so as to evaluate their effects and identify some related policy issues. The strong but significantly delayed effect of the first lockdown suggests a relevant announcement effect. In contrast, the last lockdown had significantly less impact. The proposed methodology is robust as a real-time procedure for early detection of the structural breaks: the impact of the first two lockdowns could have been correctly identified just the day after they actually occurred.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

ANOTHER COVID-19 ARTICLE JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4

Ends;

COVID-19 Outbreak, Social Response, and Early Economic Effects. Paper by Fabio Milani now published ONLINE FIRST free accessible in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease, but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about Coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior.

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COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies

GLO Fellow Fabio Milani

Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 626, 2020

Author Abstract: This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connections across country borders. I show that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior. In the early phases of the pandemic, perceptions of coronavirus risk in most countries are affected by pandemic shocks originating in Italy. Later, the USA, Spain, and the UK play sizable roles. Social distancing responses to domestic and global health shocks are heterogeneous; however, they almost always exhibit delays and sluggish adjustments. Unemployment responses vary widely across countries. Unemployment is particularly responsive to health shocks in the USA and Spain, while unemployment fluctuations are attenuated almost everywhere else.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

Ends;

Peer effects of low-ability students in the classroom: evidence from China’s middle schools. New article by Bin Huang & Rong Zhu just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that the share of students in a class who are low achievers has a significant negative impact on the academic achievement of regular students.

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Peer effects of low-ability students in the classroom: evidence from China’s middle schools

Bin Huang, Rong Zhu

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1343-1380
FREE READLINK

Author Abstract: This paper examines the causal effects of the proportion of low-ability students in the classroom on the academic performance of regular students, exploiting random assignment of students to classes within middle schools in China. We show that the share of students in a class who are low achievers has a significant negative impact on the academic achievement of regular students in the seventh grade. The peer effects are heterogeneous along their achievement distribution, with the strongest adverse impact at the bottom end but no discernable impact at the top end. In contrast, there is no evidence that low-ability students influence any part of the achievement distribution of regular students in the ninth grade. Therefore, peer effects in academic outcomes can vary with the length of regular students’ exposure to the same group of low-ability classmates. We further show that the differences in peer effects of low-ability students in seventh and ninth grades are driven by the adjustments of students’ friendship formation and learning environment when approaching the completion of middle school.

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Ends;

Ethnic attrition, assimilation, and the measured health outcomes of Mexican Americans. New paper published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Francisca M. Antman and colleagues.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds for the USA that ethnic attrition biases conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants.

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Ethnic attrition, assimilation, and the measured health outcomes of Mexican Americans

Francisca M. Antman, Brian Duncan & Stephen J. Trejo

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1499-1522
FREE READLINK

GLO Fellow Francisca M. Antman

Author Abstract: The literature on immigrant assimilation and intergenerational progress has sometimes reached surprising conclusions, such as the puzzle of immigrant advantage which finds that Hispanic immigrants sometimes have better health than US-born Hispanics. While numerous studies have attempted to explain these patterns, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic self-identification to identify immigrants’ descendants. This can lead to bias due to “ethnic attrition,” which occurs whenever a US-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. In this paper, we exploit information on parents’ and grandparents’ place of birth to show that Mexican ethnic attrition, operating through intermarriage, is sizable and positively selected on health, making subsequent generations of Mexican immigrants appear less healthy than they actually are. Consequently, conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants have been significantly overstated.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 470, 2020

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Ends;

Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: the role of time investments. New article just published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellows Ha Trong Nguyen and Luke B. Connelly & colleagues.

A new paper just published in the Journal of Population Economics attributes the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities, not to socio-demographics or so-called “tiger parenting” styles.

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Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: the role of time investments

Ha Trong Nguyen, Luke B. Connelly, Huong Thu Le, Francis Mitrou, Catherine L. Taylor & Stephen R. Zubrick

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1381–1418
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GLO Fellows Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly

Author Abstract: In most English-speaking countries, the children of Asian immigrants have better academic outcomes than other children, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are unclear. Using decade-long time use diaries on two cohorts of children, we present new evidence that children of Asian immigrants spend more time than their peers on educational activities beginning at school entry and that the ethnicity gap in the time allocated to educational activities increases as children age. We can attribute the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities, not to socio-demographics or so-called “tiger parenting” styles. Furthermore, our results show substantial heterogeneity in the contributions of initial cognitive abilities and time allocations by test subjects, children’s ages, and points of the test score distribution.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 481, 2020

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
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Ends;

COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. New article just published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Fabio Milani

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior.

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COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies

Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1: FORTHCOMING
FREE ONLINE READLINK

GLO Fellow Fabio Milani

GLO Discussion Paper 2020

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

Ends;

Weather shocks and international labor migration from the Philippines. New article just published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Marjorie C. Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño A. Vasquez

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warnings but are more likely to stay when very intense storms occur or are forecasted.

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Weathering the storm: weather shocks and international labor migration from the Philippines

Marjorie C. Pajaron & Glacer Niño A. Vasquez

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1419-1461
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GLO Fellow Marjorie C. Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño A. Vasquez

Author Abstract: The environmental migration literature presents conflicting results: While some research finds that natural disasters induce international migration, other work discovers a dampening effect. We construct an innovative longitudinal provincial dataset for the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. Using a comprehensive list of weather shocks, it is possible to identify major channels behind those conflicting findings. Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warnings but are more likely to stay when very intense storms occur or are forecasted.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 460, 2020

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
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The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China. New article just published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Xi Chen and colleagues.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds substantial heterogeneity in the effects of extreme temperature exposure on birth outcomes. In particular, prenatal exposure to heat waves has stronger negative effects than exposure to cold spells on surviving births.

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The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China

Xi Chen, Chih Ming Tan, Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1263-1302 
FREE READLINK

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of prenatal exposure to extreme temperatures on birth outcomes—specifically, the log of birth weight and an indicator for low birth weight—using a nationally representative dataset on rural China. During the time period we examine (1991–2000), indoor air conditioning was not widely available and migration was limited, allowing us to address identification issues endemic in the climate change literature related to adaptation and location sorting. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of extreme temperature exposure on birth outcomes. In particular, prenatal exposure to heat waves has stronger negative effects than exposure to cold spells on surviving births.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

Ends;

Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities. New article just published in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellow Caroline Krafft.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics indicates that the decrease in public sector employment, which is particularly appealing to women, may have contributed to the recent rise in fertility in Egypt.

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Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities

Caroline Krafft

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1173-1218
FREE READLINK

GLO Fellow Caroline Krafft

Author Abstract: Can declining employment opportunities for women reverse the fertility transition? This paper presents evidence that the demographic transition has not just stalled but in fact reversed in Egypt. After falling for decades, fertility rates increased. The paper examines the drivers of rising fertility rates, with a particular focus on the role of declining public sector employment opportunities for women. Estimates show the effect of public sector employment on the spacing and occurrence of births using discrete-time hazard models. The paper then uses the results to simulate total fertility rates. The models address the potential endogeneity of employment by incorporating woman-specific fixed effects, incorporating local employment opportunities rather than women’s own employment, and using local employment opportunities as an instrument. Results indicate that the decrease in public sector employment, which is particularly appealing to women, may have contributed to the rise in fertility but is unlikely to be its main cause.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

Ends;

Beauty and job accessibility: Evidence from a field experiment in China. New article by Weiguang Deng, Dayang Li & Dong Zhou just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics confirms a direct causal relationship between appearance and employment in China.

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Beauty and job accessibility: new evidence from a field experiment

Weiguang Deng, Dayang Li & Dong Zhou

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1303-1341
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GLO Fellow Weiguang Deng and GLO Affiliate Dayang Li

Author Abstract: This study uses a field experiment to resolve the difficulties of quantifying personal appearance and identify a direct causal relationship between appearance and employment in China. The experiment reveals that taste-based pure appearance discrimination exists at the pre-interview stage. There are significant gender-specific heterogeneous effects of education on appearance discrimination: having better educational credentials reduces appearance discrimination among men but not among women. Moreover, attributes of the labor market, companies, and vacancies matter. Beauty premiums are larger in big cities with higher concentrations of women and in male-focused research positions. Similarly, the beauty premium is larger for vacancies with higher remuneration.

The paper has been GLO Discussion Paper No. 369, 2020.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

Ends;

Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women. New article by Anna Adamecz-Völgyi & Ágota Scharle just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that raising the school leaving age can be effective in reducing the incidence of teenage pregnancy among socially excluded women, even if it does not affect the general population. An important policy implication is the potentially heterogeneous impact of educational interventions across different ethnic groups.   

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Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women

Anna Adamecz-Völgyi & Ágota Scharle

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1219-1261
OPEN ACCESS

Author Abstract: This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4–26.0% and delayed motherhood by 2 years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births and contains information on the time of conception. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.

The paper has been GLO Discussion Paper No. 474, 2020.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
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Ends;

Risk aversion and the willingness to migrate in 30 transition countries. New article by Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that risk aversion has a robust and statistically significant negative impact on willingness to migrate within countries as well as abroad.

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Risk aversion and the willingness to migrate in 30 transition countries

Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1463-1498
OPEN ACCESS

Author Abstract: This paper uses individual-level data covering 30 transition countries that account for over one-quarter of the worldwide immigrant stock to assess the impact of risk aversion on willingness to migrate. It extends the previous literature by allowing the effect of risk aversion to depend on the level of risk in the sending country. Consistent with theories of individual-level migration decisions, we find that risk aversion has a robust and statistically significant negative impact on willingness to migrate within countries as well as abroad. As predicted by theory, this impact is robustly less negative in riskier sending countries. Furthermore, this negative impact is significantly larger for willingness to migrate abroad than willingness to migrate internally. We also find that, even after controlling for an extensive set of control variables, willingness to migrate internally and abroad are highly correlated. This suggests that internal and international mobility decisions are closely linked.

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Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Journal of Population Economics 33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS

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Names and Behavior in a War. Research on Croatia by GLO Fellows Stepan Jurajda and Dejan Kovač now published online first in the Journal of Population Economics.

In GLO Discussion Paper No. 450, GLO Fellows Stepan Jurajda and Dejan Kovač have recently provided research evidence revealing that given first names of leaders from World War II can predict behavior in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and beyond in society including voting. It provides hard evidence for intergenerational transmission of nationalism. This research work has found already much interest in the scientific community and beyond. It is now published online first in the Journal of Population Economics (see details and access link below). Recently, the authors were interviewed by GLO about the background and context of this research.

Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and Behavior in a War, GLO Discussion Paper 450, 2020. Online First: Journal of Population Economics.
Click to read: READLINK!

Abstract

We implement a novel empirical strategy for measuring and studying a strong form of nationalism—the willingness to fight and die in a war for national independence—using name choices corresponding to a previous war leader. Based on data on almost half a million soldiers, we first show that having been given a first name that is synonymous with the leader(s) of the Croatian state during World War II predicts volunteering for service in the 1991–1995 Croatian war of independence and dying during the conflict. Next, we use the universe of Croatian birth certificates and the information about nationalism conveyed by first names to suggests that in ex-Yugoslav Croatia, nationalism rose continuously starting in the 1970s and that its rise was curbed in areas where concentration camps were located during WWII. Our evidence on intergenerational transmission of nationalism is consistent with nationalist fathers purposefully reflecting the trade-off between within-family and society-wide transmission channels of political values. We also link the nationalist values we proxy using first name choices to right-wing voting behavior in 2015, 20 years after the war.

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Now open access online: Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities. By GLO Fellow Jakub Lonsky.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.

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Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities

Jakub Lonsky Download PDF View Article

This is GLO Discussion Paper No. 540, 2020.

OPEN ACCESS – Published Online. Forthcoming in print version: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34.

Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

Access to the just published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.

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Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, Wei Shi

Pages 1127-1172 Download PDF View Article

*********************************************************************************************

Newly available:
IMPACT FACTOR 1.840 (2019) from 1.253 (2018)
5-YEAR IF 2.353 (2019) from 2.072 (2018)

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Ewa Björling, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Magnus Lodefalk & Fredrik Sjöholm on ‘COVID-19 and the Consequences for Free Trade’. GLO Policy Brief No. 3.

GLO Policy Brief No. 3 – Special theme: COVID-19 and policy implications

COVID-19 and the Consequences for Free Trade

by
Ewa Björling, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Magnus Lodefalk & Fredrik Sjöholm

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global trade, investment and value chains. There is a risk that newly imposed barriers to international trade and mobility will become permanent. Research shows that veiled protectionism in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic would be associated with greater risks and impede the economic recovery needed to avoid a new economic depression. We argue that failing to reboot free trade and to restore global value chains could aggravate an already difficult and delicate situation in regard to global economic development and poverty reduction. In order to reboot globalization, however, there needs to be a new approach. Simply going over old ground would be insufficient.
____________________

  • Ewa Björling, MD, Associate Professor of Virology, Sweden’s Minister for Trade 2007-2014.
  • Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, PhD, CEO of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.
  • Magnus Lodefalk, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics, Örebro University; Ratio Institute, Sweden; and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization.
  • Fredrik Sjöholm, PhD, Professor of International Economics, Lund University, and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden.

What we should know

  • Restrictions and lockdowns to address the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted international markets and global value chains. The travel and trade restrictions imposed by many countries are extreme and unusual both in nature and their implementation, wreaking havoc on global trade and investment flows. These restrictions have been adopted despite lack of evidence of their effectiveness. Some measures go against the guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • Protectionism and anti-globalization tides have been rising already before the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brexit and the China-U.S. trade war, as two examples. The policy response to the pandemic now risks to make the situation worse and constitutes a major disruption to global trade, investment and value chains. Early economic indicators suggest that this disruption is severely hurting growth and employment (Gopinath 2020).
  • Global poverty and inequality are grounds for justifiable concerns. Research suggests that failing to ensure free and predictable markets would be associated with significant risks to poverty and inequality.
  • Many policies to combat the coronavirus pandemic are actually causing both short-term problems for fighting the pandemic, as well as risks in regard to economic recovery, employment, development and poverty reduction over the medium and long term (Evenett 2020, Hoekman et al 2020, Zimmermann et al. 2020).
  • Difficulties in getting supplies of medical equipment have triggered an increased interest in de-globalizing value chains (Miroudot 2020). Already before the pandemic, companies and countries were considering a regionalization or even a nationalization of global value chains. This due to a more adverse trade policy environment, rising wages in manufacturing strongholds and technological advances, e.g., in automation.

The state of free trade in the wake of COVID-19

  • Unilaterally imposing high travel and trade barriers creates uncertainty for exporters and importers of goods and services, as well as for foreign investors. Research indicates that uncertainty about the stability of the rules of the game has a major negative impact on trade and investment, beyond the barriers imposed by the rules themselves (see, e.g., Handley and Limao 2013).
  • Temporary policies risk becoming permanent. They could become precedents for trade barriers and unilateralism in the future.
  • Asymmetric timing for when countries reopen and assymetric epidemiological strategies, pose real risks of triggering protectionism (Bown 2020). For example, when one country is back to full production and shipping, countries that still have not reopened their economies will likely face rising pressure to ‘protect’ domestic businesses.
  • Less-developed countries are more exposed to the risks associated with a failure to reboot and revitalize international trade, investment and value chains. They often face additional difficulties in handling the pandemic itself because of their relatively weaker health care systems. Existing and new trade barriers, such as export restrictions on medical products and food, will exacerbate this situation (Hoekman et al. 2020). Moreover, capital is now fleeing from poor to richer countries. The poorest and most debt-ridden countries can thus be hit twice in the form of the pandemic, and globalization in reverse.

A reboot and a new approach to globalization is needed

  • In the short term, a coordinated approach among the major economies on measures to address both the pandemic and its economic consequences are needed. A first step should be to tear down the border and trade barriers put up in the wake of the pandemic (Stellinger et al 2020).
  • In the short to medium term, it is necessary to formulate a strategy to reduce the risks from asymmetric timing in reopening and from differences in the fight against the pandemic.
  • A head-on measure would be to introduce a new free trade and investment agreement that abolish all tariffs and other barriers to trade and investment in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other equipment used to prevent or combat pandemics (Bown 2020b, Stellinger et al 2020).
  • Business leaders should act to encourage more resilient and sustainable global value chains, for example by having more suppliers, warehouses and using modern technology to monitor the chains and their resilience in real time (Miroudot 2020). This would be a win-win for the climate and for economic growth.
  • Governments must refrain from top-down attempts to address current and future difficulties of getting supplies by reshoring production of various goods and services (Stellinger et al. 2020). There is ample research on the harmfulness of import-substitution policies.
  • In the longer term, countries need to safeguard both global health and prosperity through common strategies and commitments, concrete measures for future crises and mechanisms for consultations. New and even more serious pandemics cannot be excluded. Countries will have to be able to act quickly, in a coordinated fashion and in a transparent way.
  • A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism.
  • Mechanisms for applying and enforcing stringent requirements on countries to live up to standards and obligations put in place to minimize the risk of pandemics should be evaluated.
  • The concept of sustainability within the global trading system could be extended to encompass not only environmental and social aspects, but also aspects that more clearly impact public health and epidemiological risks. Increased cross-institutional links between bodies such as the WHO and the WTO should also be created to promote knowledge exchange and technical assistance.

The policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted international markets. However, simply restoring free trade would mean ignoring massive human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism. Leaders and policymakers must make concerted efforts to: carefully lift restrictions on travel and trade while protecting health; commit to liberalize essential trade  for fighting pandemics; address how to deal with calls for protecting domestic industries in the presence of asymmetric economic reopening; and sustain international yet resilient value chains. The aim should be to develop the international trading system to both reduce the risks of pandemics and protectionism.
__________________

References

Bown, C. (2020a). “COVID-19 could bring down the trading system: How to stop protectionism from running amok.”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.

Bown, C. (2020b). “How the G20 can strengthen access to vital medical supplies in the fight against COVID-19.”, Trade and Investment Policy Watch, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Evenett, S. (2020). “Sickening your neighbor: Export restraints on medical supplies during a pandemic.”, VoxEU, CEPR.

Gopinath, G (2020). “The Great Lockdown: Worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.”, IMF.

Handley, K. and N Limao (2013). “Does policy uncertainty reduce economic activity? Insights and evidence from large trade reforms.”, VoxEU, CEPR.

Hoekman, B.M., Fiorini, M. and A. Yildirim (2020). “Export restrictions: a negative-sum policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.”, EUI RSCAS Working Paper 2020/23.

Miroudot, S. (2020). “Resilience versus robustness in global value chains: Some policy implications.” in Baldwin, R.E. and S.J. Evenett (eds.) (2020). COVID-19 and trade policy: Why turning inward won’t work. VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Stellinger, A., Berglund, I. and H. Isakson (2020). “How trade can fight the pandemic and contribute to global health.” in Baldwin, R.E. and S.J. Evenett (eds.) (2020). COVID-19 and trade policy: Why turning inward won’t work. VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Zimmermann, K.F., Karabulut, G., Bilgin, M.H. and A.C. Doker (2020). “Inter-country distancing, globalization and the coronavirus pandemic“, The World Economy, OPEN ACCESS, forthcoming. PREPUBLICATION VERSION

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

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Don DeVoretz: In Memoriam

May 28, 2020: Don DeVoretz (*May 28, 1942; + March 14, 2020), a prominent migration researcher, GLO Fellow and long-term collaborator of the GLO President, Klaus F. Zimmermann, would have been 78 today. We bemoan and remember a great scientist and friend.

Don DeVoretz obtained his doctorate in Economics from the University of Wisconsin (Madison) in 1968. He was the co-director of the Centre of Excellence for the Study of Immigration (1996-2007) and Professor of Economics at Simon Fraser University (since 1968) and Professor Emeritus (since 2010).

Don DeVoretz has held visiting positions at Duke University, University of Ibadan (Nigeria), University of the Philippines, University of Wisconsin, and the Norwegian School of Economics.

Don DeVoretz was named the Willy Brandt Professor in 2004 at IMER, Malmö University.

Don DeVoretz, a friend of the late Julian Simon, gave the first Julian Simon Lecture at IZA in 2004.

Selective Publications

  • Don DeVoretz, Nahikari Irastorza. Economic Theories of Citizenship Ascension. In: Ayelet Shachar, Rainer Bauböck, Irene Bloemraad, Maarten Vink (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Citizenship. Oxford 2017.
  • Don J. DeVoretz. The Economics of Immigrant Citizenship Ascension. In: Amelie Constant, Klaus F. Zimmermann, International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, Edward Elgar 2013.
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann, Martin Kahanec, Amelie F. Constant, Don J. DeVoretz, Liliya Gataullina, Anzelika Zaiceva. Study on the Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities. Report for the High Level Advisory Group on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities and the European Commission, Bonn 2008, IZA Research Report No. 16.
  • Don J. DeVoretz. Immigration Policy: Methods of Economic Assessment. International Migration Review, 2006, 40 (2), 390-418. (Based on the Julian Simon Lecture 2004.)
  • Don J. DeVoretz, Samuel A. Laryea. Canadian Immigration Experience: Any Lessons for Europe? In: : K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
  • Don J. DeVoretz (Ed.). Diminishing Returns: The Economics of Canada’s Recent Immigration Policy. C. D. Howe Institute 1995.
  • Ather Akbari, Don J. DeVoretz. The Substitutability of Foreign Born Labour in Canadian Production: Circa 1980. Canadian Journal of Economics, 25(3): 604-614. 1992.

Interviews with Associates

Below are two interviews with close associates of Don DeVoretz:

  • GLO Fellow Ather Akbari is Professor of Economics at Saint Mary’s University in Canada and Chair of the Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity. He is a former PhD student of Devoretz.
  • GLO Fellow Pieter Bevelander is a Professor at Malmö University and Director of the Malmö Institute for Studies of Migration, Diversity and Welfare. He is a former research partner of Devoretz.

Interview with Ather Akbari

GLO: How was Don as a teacher and PhD supervisor?

Ather Akbari: I wrote my doctoral thesis, entitled “Some Economic Impacts of Immigrant Population in Canada” under Don’s supervision. At that time (1980s), there was a paucity of  empirical research on Canadian immigration, but interest in impact of immigration was growing in public policy circles, as well as in general public. Under Don’s supervision, I really learned to communicate results of an academic research for both academic and nonacademic audience.  Results of my thesis attracted a lot of attention in news media and in public policy circles and I owe it a lot to my training under Don.

GLO: What was your joint prominent paper in the Canadian Journal of Economics about?

Ather Akbari: This paper entitled “Substitutability of Immigrants in Canadian Production Circa 1980” (not a part of my thesis) was the first in Canada to assess if immigrants displaced Canadian born workers in Canadian industries. Using data from Canadian census, we estimated a translog production function and found that although there was displacement in some industrial sectors, overall there was no displacement effect.   

GLO: Migration research was his focus, can you outline an example from his work?

Ather Akbari: I think Don’s most important contribution to migration research are his many contributions to the economics of citizenship. He has published conceptual and empirical research in this area. He also co-edited a book on the issue with Pieter Bevelander (Malmö University) with a preface written by Irene Bloemraad (Berkley University). This volume had contributions from Europe and North America. Main focus of the book was to present evidence on the impact of citizenship status on economic performance and contributions of immigrants in the host country. Very important policy implications as rights for citizenship ascension vary much across countries.

GLO: What was his contribution to policy advice, in particular to Canadian migration policy?

Ather Akbari: In the late 1980s, the Canadian government undertook a demographic review of Canadian population. All forecasts based on the demographics of the time indicated that Canada was moving towards a population distribution which will be more heavily skewed towards the elderly. This could could cause economic and labor market challenges. Don was very passionate in recommending to the Canadian government that it should liberalize its immigration policy as one important tool to meet these challenges. He was also in favor of attracting international students and for liberalizing rules for their permanent residency. Over time, Canadian immigration policy became more liberal. He was also very much in favor of immigration policy based on evidence-based research. He promoted an increased availability of data for researchers and was among the proponents of the use of administrative data in connection with survey data (especially the Longitudinal Immigration Database, IMDB).

GLO: Don was increasingly worried about the future of migration, what do you think are the major challenges ahead?

Ather Akbari: Globalization has resulted in greater movement of goods and people around the world and has resulted in great benefits. However, many have also been hurt, economically and politically, by unequal distribution of these benefits. In the West, this has led to the current wave of nationalism which threatens free movements of goods and of people. World leaders, academic researchers and news media need to address this seriously.  

Interview with Pieter Bevelander

GLO: How did you get connected with Don?

Pieter Bevelander: I met Don DeVoretz in Spring 2004. He had just taken up the Willy Brandt Guest Professorship at the Department of International Migration and Ethnic Relations at Malmö University. He felt a bit lost among all non-economists that were working there. I was myself just on a post doc visit at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, and met him when I was on a visit. During his first weeks in Malmö he had read my dissertation on the employment integration of immigrants in Sweden and showed especially large interest into the citizenship analysis. Further that Spring, he organized in Malmö a multidisciplinary workshop on the consequences of citizenship ascension in different countries and from different disciplinary angles.

GLO: You published together the edited volume The Economics of Citizenship. How did this project evolve?

Pieter Bevelander: Since the workshop in 2004 and his time in Malmö we slowly started to have conversations on a volume on the economic effects of citizenship in different countries. Don was a Research Fellow at IZA and met often its Director in Bonn. Through this network it was possible to meet either in Bonn or on his way into Europe in Malmö. We presented our ideas and papers at conferences and started to screen possible researchers for being part of the volume. We published then the book in 2008.

GLO: How has this project affected your both careers and the profession?

Pieter Bevelander: For us both, Don and me, this volume has been very valuable.
It was followed by subsequent articles, handbook chapters, policy papers for think tanks and government institutions, all analyzing why immigrants take up the citizenship of another country and whether this leads to increased economic integration in new environment. Don, for instance, was involved in policy recommendations through the think tank Center for American Progress in 2014 about how to find a way for allowing undocumented migrants to become full citizens in the US. Today, I am an advisor for the Swedish government’s investigation about changing citizenship regulations.

NOTE
***********
With Ather Akbari & Pieter Bevelander spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Don DeVoretz has been a academic companion for most parts of my life as a migration researcher.

  • We met 1992 when we both participated at the famous migration workshop, Herbert Giersch organized in Vancouver for the Egon-Sohmen-Foundation. (Herbert Giersch, Ed., Economic Aspects of International Migration, Springer Berlin. Heidelberg, 1994.)
  • He visited me during my tenure as Professor of Economics at the University of Munich and was part of the migration network I had created at the time as Programme Director Migration for the Centre of Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London. A CEPR conference on “European Migration – What Do We Know?”, which I organized 1997 at the University of Munich mobilized the network which enabled the publication of K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
  • After I created IZA, the Institute for the Study of Labor, as the Founding Director in 1998 in Bonn, Don DeVoretz and the migration network moved with me, and I appreciated his experienced support for two decades. Within this period, he was instrumental in large research projects for the Volkswagen Foundation (“The Economics and Persistence of Migrant Ethnicity”, 2005 – 2008) and the European Commission (“Study on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities”, 2006 – 2007). He helped building up and developing the IZA migration network together with Amelie Constant and Barry Chiswick. He started the prominent IZA Julian Simon Lecture series in 2004, and was a regular visitor throughout the period.
  • Don DeVoretz stayed in contact with email exchange and ambitious research projects until earlier this year. We all miss his friendship, sharp thinking and helpful advice.

Julia & Don DeVoretz

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The effect of educational technology on college students’ labor market performance. New article published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that information and communications technology (ICT) significantly increases students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and higher wages. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search.

Read more in:

The effect of educational technology on college students’ labor market performance

Yi Lu, Hong Song

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1101-1126
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on college students’ labor market performance. Using a large, representative survey of college students in China, we examine outcomes before and after students were exposed to technology-aided instruction, compared with students who were not exposed to such instruction. The results indicate that the ICT program significantly increased students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and the wage they were offered. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search. While most previous studies of the use of technology in education focus only on students’ academic achievement and find zero or negative effects, our study demonstrates that technology may be an effective tool for improving college students’ labor market performance, and that the potential benefits of technology might be underestimated if we focus only on test scores and ignore students’ career development.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth. New article published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides a model that can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth.

Read more in:

Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth

Alberto Bucci, Klaus Prettner

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1025-1068
FREE READ LINK

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Males’ housing wealth and their marriage market advantage. A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that housing or real estate improves the man’s status in the marriage market of Taiwan.

Read more in:

Males’ housing wealth and their marriage market advantage

C. Y. Cyrus Chu, Jou-Chun Lin, Wen-Jen Tsay

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1005-1023
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: In theory, people who own real estate should have advantage finding a partner in the marriage market. Empirical analyses along this line, however, face three issues. First, it is difficult to identify any causality for whether housing facilitates marriage or expected marriage facilitates a housing purchase. Second, survey samples usually do not cover very wealthy people, and so the observations are top coding in the wealth dimension. Third, getting married is a dynamic life cycle decision, and rich life-history data are rarely available. This paper uses registry data from Taiwan to estimate the impact of males’ housing wealth on their first-marriage duration, taking into account all three issues mentioned above. We find that a 10% increase in real estate wealth increases probability of a man getting married in any particular year by 3.92%. Our finding suggests that housing or real estate is a status good in the marriage market.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Exploring the role of parental engagement in non-cognitive skill development over the lifecourse. Just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics highlights that fathers in Australia play a pivotal role in the skill production process of their kids over the lifecourse.

Read more in:

Exploring the role of parental engagement in non-cognitive skill development over the lifecourse

Rosemary Elkins & Stefanie Schurer

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 957-1004
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We examine the role that parental engagement with child’s education plays in the lifecourse dynamics of locus of control (LOC), one of the most widely studied non-cognitive skills related to economic decision-making. We focus on parental engagement as previous studies have shown that it is malleable, easy to measure, and often available for fathers, whose inputs are notably understudied in the received literature. We estimate a standard skill production function using rich British cohort data. Parental engagement is measured with information provided at age 10 by the teacher on whether the father or the mother is very interested in the child’s education. We deal with the potential endogeneity in parental engagement by employing an added-value model, using lagged measures of LOC as a proxy for innate endowments and unmeasured inputs. We find that fathers’, but not mothers’, engagement leads to internality, a belief associated with positive lifetime outcomes, in both young adulthood and middle age for female and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort members. Fathers’ engagement also increases the probability of lifelong internality and fully protects against lifelong externality. Our findings highlight that fathers play a pivotal role in the skill production process over the lifecourse.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that an early-life social safety net program has a sizeable impact on child health outcomes at birth.

Read more in:

Growing together: assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program

Damian Clarke, Gustavo Cortés Méndez

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 883-956
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We study the acting mechanism of an early-life social safety net program and quantify its impact on child health outcomes at birth. We consider both the equity and efficiency implications of program impacts and provide a metric to compare such programs around the world. In particular, we estimate the impact of participation in Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC), Chile’s flagship early-life health and social welfare program, using a difference-in-differences style model based on variation in program intensity and administrative birth data matched to social benefits usage. We find that this targeted social program had significant effects on birth weight (approximately 10 grams) and other early-life human capital measures. These benefits are largest among the most socially vulnerable groups but shift outcomes toward the middle of the distribution of health at birth. We show that the program is efficient when compared to other successful neonatal health programs around the world and find some evidence to suggest that maternal nutrition components and increased links to the social safety net are important action mechanisms.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides causal evidence that children increase mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness in a large sample of women from 35 developing countries.

Read more in:

Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being

Jan Priebe

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 839-882
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: This article presents causal evidence on the impact of fertility on women’s subjective well-being using quasi-experimental variation due to preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition (having at least one child of each sex). Based on a large sample of women from 35 developing countries, I find that having children increases mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness. I further establish that the positive impact of fertility on subjective well-being can be explained by related increases in mothers’ satisfaction with family life, friendship, and treatment by others.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that Vietnam’s two-child policy decreased the average number of living children per woman, decreased also the proportion of sons in each family and increased maternal employment.

Read more in:

Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply

Anh P. Ngo

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 751-794
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: In 1988, facing a total fertility rate of over four births per woman, the Vietnamese government introduced a new policy that required parents to have no more than two children. Using data from the Vietnam Population and Housing Censuses from 1989, 1999, and 2009, I apply a differences-in-differences framework to assess the effects of this policy on family size, son preference, and maternal employment. I find that the policy decreased the probability that a woman has more than two children by 15 percentage points for younger women and by 7 percentage points for middle-aged women. The policy reduced the average number of living children by 0.2 births per woman. Low-education women and women in rural areas were more affected by the policy. The policy had no effects on mothers’ age at first birth and gender of mothers’ last birth. The reduction in fertility caused by the policy was associated with a 1.2 percentage point decrease in the proportion of sons in each family. The policy increased maternal employment by 1.3 percentage points. Instrumental variables estimates of the effects of fertility on maternal employment and child education suggest a negative relationship between the number of children and female labor supply and a trade-off between child quantity and child quality in Vietnam.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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