A new GLO Discussion Paper finds an increase in poverty and labor income inequality in the majority of the LAC countries due to social distancing. Most of the dispersion in the labor income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral and occupational structure of the economies, while the rest is explained by the type of lockdown policy implemented.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 682, 2020

The Distributional Consequences of Social Distancing on Poverty and Labour Income Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean  – Download PDF
by Delaporte, Isaure & Escobar, Julia & Peña, Werner

GLO Fellow Isaure Delaporte

Author Abstract: This paper evaluates the distributional consequences of social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and labor income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We gather detailed information from national laws and decrees on the strictness and the duration of the lockdown in each country and use rich harmonized household surveys from the IADB. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the first phase of the lockdown by constructing the Lockdown Working Ability (LWA) index which takes into account individuals’ ability to work from home but also whether their occupation is affected by workplace closures or mobility restrictions. We find that, on average, 1 worker out of 2 is able to work under the lockdown in the LAC region. We document considerable variation in the share of individuals able to work under the lockdown across countries and within countries across occupations, economic activities and specific population groups. Based on the LWA index, we then estimate individual’s potential labor income losses and examine changes in poverty and labor income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labor income inequality in the majority of the LAC countries due to social distancing. At the national level, the highest increase in the headcount poverty index is 1.4 pp and the highest increase in the Gini coefficient is 2 pp. Decomposing overall labor income inequality in the LAC region, we find that social distancing has lead to a small decrease (-0.1 pp) in inequality between countries but to an increase (2 pp) in inequality within countries. Finally, we document that 63% of the dispersion in the labor income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational structure of the economies, while the rest is explained by the type of lockdown policy that was implemented.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper proposes that ancestral use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labor force participation and female property rights.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 681, 2020
Irrigation and Culture: Gender Roles and Women’s Rights – Download PDF
by Fredriksson, Per G. & Gupta, Satyendra Kumar

GLO Fellows Per Fredriksson and Satyendra Kumar Gupta

Author Abstract: This paper proposes that ancestral use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labor force participation and female property rights. We test this hypothesis using an exogenous measure of irrigation and data from the Afrobarometer, cross-country data, the European Social Survey, the American Community Survey, and the India Demographic and Household Survey. Our hypothesis receives considerable empirical support. We find negative associations between ancestral irrigation and actual female labor force participation, and attitudes to such participation, in contemporary African and Indian populations, 2nd generation European immigrants, 1.5 and 2nd generation US immigrants, and in cross-country data. Moreover, ancestral irrigation is negatively associated with attitudes to female property rights in Africa and with measures of such rights across countries. Our estimates are robust to a host of control variables and alternative specifications. We propose multiple potential partial mechanisms. First, in pre-modern societies the men captured technologies complementary to irrigation, raising their relative productivity. Fertility increased. This caused lower female participation in agriculture and subsistence activities, and the women worked closer to home. Next, due to the common pool nature of irrigation water, historically irrigation has involved more frequent warfare. This raised the social status of men and restricted women’s movement. These two mechanisms have produced cultural preferences against female participation in the formal labor market. Finally, irrigation produced both autocracy and a culture of collectivism. These are both associated with weaker female property rights.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jordan-Mcqueen-on-Unsplash.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of September investigates how air quality changed during COVID-19 lockdown policies in Vietnam.    

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: September

647 The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Trinh, Trong-Anh  

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh H. Dang

Author Abstract: Little evidence currently exists on the effects of COVID-19 on air quality in poorer countries, where most air pollution-linked deaths occur. We offer the first study that examines the pandemic’s impacts on improving air quality in Vietnam, a lower-middle income country with worsening air pollution. Employing the Regression Discontinuity Design method to analyze a rich database that we compile from satellite air pollution data and data from various other sources, we find the concentration of NO2 to decrease by 24 to 32 percent two weeks after the COVID-19 lockdown. While this finding is robust to different measures of air quality and model specifications, the positive effects of the lockdown appear to dissipate after ten weeks. We also find that mobility restrictions are a potential channel for improved air quality. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that two weeks after the lockdown, the economic gains from better air quality are roughly $0.6 billion US dollars.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Featured Image: Photo-by-Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers submitted in September 2020

676 The role of foreign direct investment in growth: Spain, 1964-2013 – Download PDF
by Bajo-Rubio, Oscar

675 Nudging Demand for Academic Support Services: Experimental and Structural Evidence from Higher Education – Download PDF
by Pugatch, Todd & Wilson, Nicholas

674 Returns to Education in the Russian Federation: Some New Estimates – Download PDF
by Melianova, Ekaterina & Parandekar, Suhas & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Volgin, Artëm

673 Motherhood and labor market penalty: a study on Indian labor market – Download PDF
by Sarkhel, Sukanya & Mukherjee, Anirban

672 English Skills and Early Labour Market Integration: Evidence from Humanitarian Migrants in Australia – Download PDF
by Cheng, Zhiming & Wang, Ben Zhe & Jiang, Zhou & Taksa, Lucy & Tani, Massimiliano

671 Welfare Perceptions of the Youth: A Turkish Case Study – Download PDF
by Bagis, Bilal & Yumurtaci, Aynur

670 The Labour Force Status of Transgender People and The Impact of Removing Surgical Requirements to Change Gender on ID Documents – Download PDF
by Mann, Samuel

669 Female Human Capital Mismatch: An extension for the British public sector – Download PDF
by Galanakis, Yannis

668 Educational Mismatches of Newly Hired Workers: Short and Medium-run Effects on Wages – Download PDF
by Araújo, Isabel & Carneiro, Anabela

667 An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization during Covid-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation – Download PDF
by Pongou, Roland & Tchuente, Guy & Tondji, Jean-Baptiste

666 Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach – Download PDF
by Galindo-Silva, Hector & Somé, Nibene Habib & Tchuente, Guy

665 Access to Finance among Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and Job Creation in Africa – Download PDF
by Brixiová, Zuzana & Kangoye, Thierry & Yogo, Thierry Urbain

664 Non-Standard Employment and Wage Differences across Gender: a quantile regression approach – Download PDF
by Duman, Anil

663 The Unequal Impact of Natural Light on Crime – Download PDF
by Tealde, Emiliano

662 Labor Market Effects of a Work-first Policy for Refugees – Download PDF
by Arendt, Jacob Nielsen

661 COVID-19 labour market shocks and their inequality implications for financial wellbeing – Download PDF
by Botha, Ferdi & de New, John P. & de New, Sonja C. & Ribar, David C. & Salamanca, Nicolás

660 A strictly economic explanation of gender roles: The lasting legacy of the plough – Download PDF
by Cigno, Alessandro

659 International Trade and Labor Market Integration of Immigrants – Download PDF
by Lodefalk, Magnus & Sjöholm, Fredrik & Tang, Aili

658 Measuring Gender Attitudes Using List Experiments – Download PDF
by Asadullah, M Niaz & De Cao, Elisabetta & Khatoon, Fathema Zhura & Siddique, Zahra

657 Trade and Economic Growth: Theories and Evidence from the Southern African Development Community – Download PDF
by Farahane, Matias Jaime & Heshmati, Almas

656 The Extractive Industry’s impact on Economic Growth in SADC Countries – Download PDF
by Nhabinde, Simeão & Heshmati, Almas

655 Pay Gaps and Mobility for Lower and Upper Tier Informal Sector Employees: an investigation of the Turkish labor market – Download PDF
by Duman, Anil

654 Long Live the Vacancy – Download PDF
by Haefke, Christian & Reiter, Michael

653 Impacts of COVID-19 on Food Security: Panel Data Evidence from Nigeria – Download PDF
by Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan

652 Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States – Download PDF
by Chen, Shuai

651 Education-occupation mismatch and dispersion in returns to education: Evidence from India – Download PDF
by Grover, Shweta & Sharma, Ajay

650 Canadian Small Businesses’ Employees and Owners during COVID-19 – Download PDF
by Beland, Louis-Philippe & Fakorede, Oluwatobi & Mikola, Derek

649 Heterogeneous Shocks in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Panel Evidence from Italian Firms – Download PDF
by Brancati, Emanuele & Brancati, Raffaele

648 The role of innovation in industrial dynamics and productivity growth: a survey of the literature – Download PDF
by Ugur, Mehment & Vivarelli, Marco

647 The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Trinh, Trong-Anh

646 The effect of job search requirements on welfare receipt – Download PDF
by Hérault, Nicolas & Vu, Ha & Wilkins, Roger

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org  

 DP of the Month September

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A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the 2008 policy change in Sweden’s immigration policy. The new non-selective labor-migration policy lowered labor migrants’ mean income by opening the door to unskilled labor.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 680, 2020
The Effects of the 2008 Labour-Migration Reform in Sweden: An Analysis of Income – Download PDF
by Irastorza, Nahikari & Emilsson, Henrik

GLO Fellow Nahikari Irastorza

Author Abstract: In 2008, Sweden changed its labor-migration policy in order to facilitate more labor migration from countries outside the EU. The unique design of the new law meant abandoning most state ambitions to shape labor migration. Under the new regulation, there are no labor-market tests or any consideration of the level of human capital. Instead, policy-makers trusted employers to select workers. We adopt a difference-in-differences approach and apply a series of OLS regressions on register data to assess the effects of the policy change on non-EU labor migrants’ labor-market outcomes, as measured by income. The effects of the policy change are substantial. Non-EU labor migration increased and its composition changed after the reform, resulting in a significant decrease in mean incomes. The regression analysis shows that, despite the favorable economic cycle during the post-reform period, moving to Sweden as a third-country labor migrant following the 2008 labor-migration reform had a negative effect on the migrants’ annual income. However, this effect became marginal after controlling for occupational level. We conclude that changes in their occupational composition were the main drivers of the income drop for non-EU labor migrants. In sum, the new non-selective labor-migration policy lowered labor migrants’ mean income by opening the door to unskilled labor.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates how many discrimination tests per single agent are needed to convincingly proof discrimination. For the Belgium real estate market, it appears that 10 or more tests are needed per realtor to detect discrimination with a high degree of certainty.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 678, 2020
How many correspondence tests are enough to detect discrimination among single agents? A longitudinal study on the Belgian real estate market – Download PDF
by Verhaeghe, Pieter-Paul & Van der Bracht, Koen
GLO Fellow Pieter-Paul Verhaeghe

Author Abstract: Correspondence tests have been used by scholars and civil rights organizations to measure ethnic discrimination. In contrast to research testing covering a whole market through many discrimination tests, litigation testing typically targets a single agent, which can only be tested through a very low number of tests per agent. This low number of tests poses serious methodological challenges to disentangle systematic discrimination from random treatment. This study examines from a purely statistical point of view how many discrimination tests per single agent are needed to convincingly proof discrimination. We collected unique longitudinal data about 114 real estate agents, which were tested through 10 repeated pairwise matched correspondence tests. It appears that 10 or more tests are needed per realtor to detect discrimination with a high degree of certainty. The required number of tests per agent depends on the pattern of discrimination among the agent under study, the expected non-response rate and the desired degree of certainty.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds rising inequality in the Nordic countries in the composition of individual incomes which is due mostly to a shift in capital incomes towards the top of the distribution.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 677, 2020
Still the lands of equality? On the heterogeneity of individual factor income shares in the Nordics – Download PDF
by Iacono, Roberto & Palagiz, Elisa
GLO Fellow Roberto Iacone

Author Abstract: As far as standard measures of income inequality are concerned, the Nordic countries rank among the most equal economies in the world. This paper studies whether and how this picture changes when the focus is on inequality of income composition, meaning the heterogeneity in individuals’ factor income shares. We highlight the structural change taking place in all the Nordic countries since the early 1990s, with rising inequality in composition of individual incomes due mostly to a shift in capital incomes towards the top of the distribution. We link this result to changes in taxation of factor incomes, by highlighting the role played by the introduction of Dual Income Taxation reforms in the 1990s throughout the Nordic countries. Our estimates of the degree of income composition inequality allow a descriptive analysis of the role of functional distribution as a determinant of personal income inequality in the Nordics. We show that for Denmark in the period 2009-2013, Finland 1990-2007, and Norway 1991-2005, rising capital shares of income contributed to changes in personal income inequality, whilst for Sweden the evidence leads to disregard the capital share as a determinant of income inequality.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a significant contribution of foreign capital on the accumulated growth of GDP over the period of analysis in Spain.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 676, 2020
The role of foreign direct investment in growth: Spain, 1964-2013 – Download PDF
by Bajo-Rubio, Oscar
GLO Fellow Oscar Bajo-Rubio

Author Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a major role in the deep process of transformation experienced by the Spanish economy since the first 1960s, which even intensified following the integration with the now European Union (EU) in 1986. In this paper, we analyse the long-run effects of FDI in Spain, by estimating a production function including the foreign capital stock over the period 1964-2013. We find a significant contribution of foreign capital on the accumulated growth of GDP over the period of analysis, which seems however to have been greater during the first years of the period analysed.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the demand for academic support services at a large U.S. public university. Approximately one-third of students are never attentive to student services, and the characteristics of advertising messages matter.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 675, 2020

Nudging Demand for Academic Support Services: Experimental and Structural Evidence from Higher Education – Download PDF
by Pugatch, Todd & Wilson, Nicholas

GLO Fellows Todd Pugatch & Nicholas Wilson

Author Abstract: More than two of every five students who enroll in college fail to graduate within six years. Prior research has identified ineffective study habits as a major barrier to success. We conducted a randomized controlled advertising experiment designed to increase demand for academic support services among more than 2,100 students at a large U.S. public university. Our results reveal several striking findings. First, the intervention shifted proxies of student attention, such as opening emails and self-reported awareness of service availability. However, the experimental variation indicates that approximately one-third of students are never attentive to student services. Second, advertising increased the use of extra practice problems, but did not affect take-up of tutoring and coaching, the other two services. Structural estimates suggest that transaction costs well in excess of plausible opportunity costs explain the differences in service use. Third, the characteristics of advertising messages matter. Several common nudging techniques—such as text messages, lottery-based economic incentives, and repeated messages—either had no effect or in some cases reduced the effectiveness of messaging.

Featured image: Photo by Mikael Kristenson on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Russia that although the returns to schooling increased for a time, they are now much lower than the global average. Private returns to education are three times greater for higher education compared with vocational education, and the returns to education for females are higher than for males.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 674, 2020

Returns to Education in the Russian Federation: Some New Estimates – Download PDF
by Melianova, Ekaterina & Parandekar, Suhas & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Volgin, Artëm
GLO Fellow Harry Patrinos

Author Abstract: This paper presents new estimates of the returns to education in the Russian Federation using data from 1994 to 2018. Although the returns to schooling increased for a time, they are now much lower than the global average. Private returns to education are three times greater for higher education compared with vocational education, and the returns to education for females are higher than for males. Returns for females show an inverse U-shaped curve over the past two decades. Female education is a policy priority and there is a need to investigate the labor market relevance of vocational education. Higher education may have reached an expansion limit, and it may be necessary to investigate options for increasing the productivity of schooling.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the motherhood penalty on the Indian labor market and how it varies across the different cultural values pertaining to different family settings, regions and workplaces.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 673, 2020

Motherhood and labor market penalty: a study on Indian labor market – Download PDF
by Sarkhel, Sukanya & Mukherjee, Anirban

GLO Fellow Anirban Mukherjee

Author Abstract: Labor market penalty associated with motherhood (in short, motherhood penalty) is an important issue related to gender equality in the society. Our paper is an attempt to empirically examine the extent of motherhood penalty in the context of Indian labor market. We use a nationally representative longitudinal survey data to address this question. We find negative relationship between motherhood and labor market outcomes for women. Besides using conventional measures of motherhood such as number of children, we also devise a new measure of motherhood relevant for our research question. The survey asked the respondents about their desired number of children. We deduct the desired number of children from the actual number of children to come up with a new measure of motherhood that we call extra children. We reckon that often women’s decision to join specific occupations or labor markets in general often internalize their desired number of children; the number they originally planned for. Hence, it is the number of children above the desired number which leads to stronger negative outcomes in the labor market. We find that the extra children variable has a stronger negative impact on women’s labor market outcomes than the conventional measures. We also examine how the extent of motherhood penalty varies across different cultural values pertaining to different family settings, regions and workplaces. We find, depending on different cultures prevailing in the places of residence or workplace, motherhood penalty gets either mitigated or exacerbated. Our results remain robust to alternative measures of motherhood.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the public sector in the UK exhibits a high magnitude of mismatch and is an attractive waiting room for highly-qualified graduates.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 669, 2020

Female Human Capital Mismatch: An extension for the British public sector – Download PDF
by Galanakis, Yannis

GLO Fellow Yannis Galanakis

Author Abstract: This paper looks at the extent of labor market mismatch of public-sector female employees. It contributes to earlier findings for the British labor market by taking into account the endogenous self-selection into jobs. Estimates are based on data from the British Household Panel Study and the ’Understanding Society’ covering the years 1991-2016. The analysis verifies that the public sector offers a few low skilled jobs and employs, mostly, high-educated (female) workers. Regarding the market flows, findings show the greater mobility of the female workforce, which moves proportionately between sectors. Greater in-/out-flows to/from private sector are observed regardless the gender of the employee. Once comparing women to the median employee, a sizeable incidence of mismatch arises due to negative selection. Specifications using the selection model for the public sector illustrate a systematically higher magnitude of mismatch. Pooled results seem to dominate when women seen in the male labor market or in a restricted subsample. Finally, the map of occupations in mismatch supports that the public sector is more attractive as a waiting room for highly-qualified graduates. They queue less time until they find a good job. Hence, policy implications regarding the allocation of jobs for women may arise.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 679, 2020

Coronavirus pandemic, remote learning and education inequalities – Download PDF
by Murat, Marina & Bonacini, Luca

GLO Fellows Marina Murat & Luca Bonacini

Author Abstract: School closures during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 forced countries to swiftly adopt distance learning, with uncertain effects on education inequalities. Using PISA 2018 data from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, we find that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses that, everything else equal, range from 70 percent of a school year in the United Kingdom to 50 percent in Italy. Similar results are found by considering days of absence from school. In both approaches, the distribution of cognitive losses is associated with countries’ educational systems. In the longer run, students who cannot learn remotely are more likely to end their education early and repeat grades. The two outcomes strongly reinforce each other in Spain, Germany and Italy. Results – robust to different specifications and the imputation of missing data – imply that countries must enhance e-learning and support disadvantaged students, but tune these measures to the characteristics of their educational systems.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that for immigrants to Australia self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labor force participation.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 672, 2020

English Skills and Early Labour Market Integration: Evidence from Humanitarian Migrants in Australia – Download PDF
by Cheng, Zhiming & Wang, Ben Zhe & Jiang, Zhou & Taksa, Lucy & Tani, Massimiliano

GLO Fellows Zhiming Cheng, Ben Wang, Lucy Taksa & Max Tani

Author Abstract: We use the panel data from the Building a New Life in Australia survey to examine the relationships between proficiency in English and labour market outcomes among humanitarian migrants. Having better general or speaking skills in English is certainly associated with a higher propensity for participation in the labour force and getting a job. However, we also find that, compared to other domains of English proficiency, such as listening, reading and writing, proficiency in English speaking skills has been the least improved domain for humanitarian migrants’ who have participated in an English training program. Our paper explores the channels leading to these outcomes, finding that self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labour force participation. We also find that self-efficacy, general health and indicative serious mental illness partially mediate the relationship between better English proficiency and the chance of getting a job.

Featured Image: Photo-by-Ra-Dragon-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds growing financial concerns among university students in Turkey about social and economic welfare.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 671, 2020

Welfare Perceptions of the Youth: A Turkish Case Study – Download PDF
by Bagis, Bilal & Yumurtaci, Aynur

GLO Fellow Bilal Bagis

Author Abstract: Despite little to no academic attention, widespread perception of the welfare state policies is a critical aspect of its evaluation, existence and the validity processes; especially that amongst youth and the new generations. This paper discusses welfare or the quality of life perceptions in Turkey and in particular the university students’ economic and social welfare concerns. The paper is based upon survey outcomes from two different cities’ university students, across Turkey; and analyzes the Turkish university students’ current welfare, happiness, contentment with life and the future financial wellness perceptions. We employ the standard chi-square test of independence to test our hypotheses. The research aims to contribute to the efforts towards a roadmap regarding the socio-economic policies to be implemented for the future of Turkey. The paper finds growing financial concerns among university students in terms of social and economic welfare. This is despite the recent economic, social and cultural transformation in modern Turkey. Meanwhile, the latest pandemic is likely to have deteriorated these perceptions. This research, meanwhile, is a worthy analysis to understand contentment regarding the current economic outlook, as well as the concerns and confidence in terms of financial future and wellness. Understanding these perceptions may potentially help in carving the middle and long-term national social and economic policies.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper analyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers in Portugal.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 668, 2020

Educational Mismatches of Newly Hired Workers: Short and Medium-run Effects on Wages – Download PDF
by Araújo, Isabel & Carneiro, Anabela

GLO Fellow Anabela Carneiro

Author Abstract: Exploring a rich matched employer-employee data set over the 1998-2012 period and a novel measure of educational mismatch, this study analyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers. The data show that more than 50 percent of the employed in the private sector in Portugal experienced a job mismatch at the moment of being hired. According to the statistical measure based on the flows of newly hired workers, in the period under scrutiny overeducation is decreasing and undereducation is increasing, indicating that labour market demand is keeping pace with the rise in educational attainment of the Portuguese population. The results reveal that the wage differential between adequately matched workers and mismatched workers decreases considerably once worker and firm unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. In fact, worker permanent heterogeneity explains two-thirds of the overducated wage penalty and three-fourths of the undereducated wage premium, indicating that the undereducated seem to correspond to a higher-ability group of employees, while the overeducated seem to correspond to a lower-ability group of workers. Heterogeneity in firm paying policies also play an important role in explaining the wage gap of newly hired mismatched workers. Finally, the results also indicate that the wages of individuals in the beginning of their labour market career are the most affected by a job mismatch.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper develops and applies a new econometric identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization with problematic findings for the reform.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 666, 2020

Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach – Download PDF
by Galindo-Silva, Hector & Somé, Nibene Habib & Tchuente, Guy

GLO Fellow Guy Tchuente

Author Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in- discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that access to finance affects employment growth in small and medium-sized enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 665, 2020

Access to Finance among Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and Job Creation in Africa – Download PDF
by Brixiová, Zuzana & Kangoye, Thierry & Yogo, Thierry Urbain

GLO Fellow Zuzana Brixiová

Author Abstract: In the past decade inclusive growth, that is job-rich growth, has topped the policy agenda in developing countries. This paper investigates how the access to finance affects employment in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. It first presents a model where firm creation requires entrepreneurial search and paying the start-up costs, while the firm’s size in terms of employment depends on the access to credit. Under the financial market imperfections, access to credit can be a binding constraint on firm entry and employment even when the banks have sufficient liquidity. Using an impact evaluation-based approach on firm-level data from 42 African countries, we show that SMEs with access to formal financing create more jobs than firms without access, with employment in firms having access to more affordable and larger loans growing the fastest. The impact of access to finance is stronger for firms in manufacturing than in services, pointing to sectoral targeting of finance as a possible policy supporting industrialization.

Featured image: Photo-by-Ninno-JackJr-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper shows for Turkey that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile, but no such results are obtained for men.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 664, 2020

Non-Standard Employment and Wage Differences across Gender: a quantile regression approach – Download PDF
by Duman, Anil

GLO Fellow Anil Duman

Author Abstract: The paper aims to identify the effect of non-standard employment on wages in the Turkish labor market across gender and decompose the gap to understand the role of endowments and returns in generating the earning differences. Our findings show that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile but no such results are obtained for men. Besides, females with standard jobs in Turkey earn more than men, however, the opposite holds for females in non-standard positions. Also, a big part of the gender pay gap is attributable to returns, especially at the lower end of the distribution. Women in low-paid and atypical jobs face larger pay gaps, and the role of unexplained component suggests they are discriminated. The distinct impact of non-standard employment on men and women suggest that policies geared towards labor market flexibility should take gender perspective into account.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper contributes to the rising literature on the impact of natural light on economic behavior. Using Daylight Saving Time as a natural experiment it finds that the increase of light has reduced crime in Montevideo strongly.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 663, 2020

The Unequal Impact of Natural Light on Crime – Download PDF
by Tealde, Emiliano

Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.

GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde

Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 662, 2020

Labor Market Effects of a Work-first Policy for Refugees – Download PDF
by Arendt, Jacob Nielsen

Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.

GLO Fellow Jacob Arendt

Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up the entry into regular jobs for males, but that they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. The long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.

Featured image: Photo-by-Ra-Dragon-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 660, 2020

A strictly economic explanation of gender roles: The lasting legacy of the plough – Download PDF
by Cigno, Alessandro

GLO Fellow Alessandro Cigno

Author Abstract: We show that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough, even after they emigrate to a modern industrial economy where individual productivity depends on education rather than physical characteristics. The result rests on the argument that, if efficiency requires the more productive spouse to specialize in raising income, and the less productive one in raising children, irrespective of gender, an efficient domestic equilibrium will be implemented by a costlessly enforceable pre-marital contract stipulating that the husband should do the former and the wife the latter. A contract may not be needed, however, if time spent with children gives direct utility, because an efficient equilibrium may then be characterized by little or no division of labor.

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GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Sweden a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 659, 2020

International Trade and Labor Market Integration of Immigrants – Download PDF
by Lodefalk, Magnus & Sjöholm, Fredrik & Tang, Aili

GLO Fellow Magnus Lodefalk

Author Abstract: We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020; forthcoming 2021 in the Journal of Population Economics.

Measuring Gender Attitudes Using List Experiments – Download PDF
by Asadullah, M Niaz & De Cao, Elisabetta & Khatoon, Fathema Zhura & Siddique, Zahra

GLO Fellows M Niaz Asadullah & Zahra Siddique

Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age eighteen. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.

Featured image: Photo-by-Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the hypothesis that trade can be an engine of growth using data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. It finds that export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought any effects on growth.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 657, 2020

Trade and Economic Growth: Theories and Evidence from the Southern African Development Community – Download PDF
by Farahane, Matias Jaime & Heshmati, Almas

GLO Fellow Almas Heshmati

Author Abstract: This paper empirically tests the hypothesis that trade can act as an engine of growth using panel data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional integration agreement (RIA) organization, the central objective of whose formation was the need to accelerate, foster, and encourage the region’s growth. Our results indicate that during the period covered by this study (2005-2017), export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought about any effects on growth perhaps because of lack of full establishment of the primary instruments for achieving its central objective. These results lead to three conclusions. Firstly, trade through export expansion seems to be a better solution for SADC for achieving the central objective of its formation. Secondly, more openness to trade seems to jeopardize growth. Finally, the formation of SADC has not yet brought about the expected gains from a RIA. In this context, we recommend that policymakers should consider adopting measures aimed at supporting increased trade through promoting export expansion, achieving strong absorption of negative chocks that usually result from trade, and exploring the possibility of establishing all the planned primary instruments for achieving SADC’s central objective.

Featured image: Photo-by-Ninno-JackJr-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the direct and indirect impacts the extractive industries have on economic growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 656, 2020

The Extractive Industry’s impact on Economic Growth in SADC Countries – Download PDF
by Nhabinde, Simeão & Heshmati, Almas

GLO Fellow Almas Heshmati

Author Abstract: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are rich in natural resources and in most of them their extractive industries extract and export natural resources with little industrial processing. This study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts that the extractive industries in the SADC countries have on their economic growth. The study also examines the hypothesis of economic convergence. Its empirical results are based on data from the 11 founding SADC countries covering the period 2004-17. The results show that despite the process of integration, the SADC economies do not converge in terms of per capita incomes. The extractive industries have direct negative impacts on the countries’ economic growth thus providing evidence of a resource curse. Extractive industries in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have positive direct impacts on their economic growth. However, in terms of indirect impacts, the extractive industries do not have any impact on GDP because their impact on manufacturing, human capital, public expenditure, economic openness, exchange rate, and inflation is insignificant. The study also shows that GDP, the colonial path followed by these countries, and inflation have a negative but insignificant impact on extractive industries, while manufacturing, government expenditure, and economic openness have positive but insignificant impacts in all SADC countries. Human capital and exchange rate are the only factors that have both significant positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively.

Featured image: Photo-by-Ninno-JackJr-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the optimal policy response to Covid-19 depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 667, 2020

An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization during Covid-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation – Download PDF
by Pongou, Roland & Tchuente, Guy & Tondji, Jean-Baptiste

GLO Fellow Guy Tchuente

Author Abstract: We address the problem of finding the optimal lockdown and reopening policy during a pandemic like COVID-19 for a social planner who prioritizes health over the economy. Agents are connected through a fuzzy network of contacts, and the planner’s objective is to determine the policy that contains the spread of infection below a tolerable incidence level, and that maximizes the present discounted value of real income, in that order of priority. We show theoretically that the planner’s problem has a unique solution. The optimal policy depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence. Using simulations, we apply these theoretical findings to: (i) quantify the trade-off between the economic cost of the pandemic and the infection incidence allowed by the social planner, and show how this trade-off depends on network configuration; (ii) understand the correlation between different measures of network centrality and individual lockdown probability, and derive implications for the optimal design of surveys on social distancing behavior and network structure; and (iii) analyze how segregation induces differential health and economic dynamics in minority and majority populations, also illustrating the crucial role of patient zero in these dynamics.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper indicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution suggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 661, 2020

COVID-19 labour market shocks and their inequality implications for financial wellbeing – Download PDF
by Botha, Ferdi & de New, John P. & de New, Sonja C. & Ribar, David C. & Salamanca, Nicolá

GLO Fellows John P. de New & David C. Ribar

Author Abstract: Using an online survey of Australian residents, we elicit the potential impacts of COVID-19 related labour market shocks on a validated measure of financial wellbeing. Experiencing a reduction in hours and earnings, entering into unemployment or having to file for unemployment benefits during the pandemic are strongly and significantly associated with decreases in financial wellbeing of 29% or 18 points on the financial wellbeing scale of 0-100, despite various government measures to reduce such effects. Unconditional quantile regression analyses indicate that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution. Counterfactual distribution regressions indicate a shifting of the financial wellbeing distribution leftwards brought on by those suffering any of the above-mentioned labour market shocks, indicating potential significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Featured image: Photo-by-Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the wage gap between formal and informal sector workers in Turkey confirming that an informal wage penalty is persistent even after unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 655, 2020

Pay Gaps and Mobility for Lower and Upper Tier Informal Sector Employees: an investigation of the Turkish labor market – Download PDF
by Duman, Anil

GLO Fellow Anil Duman

Author Abstract: Many empirical studies found wage gaps between formal and informal sector workers even after controlling for a number of individual and firm level characteristics. While there is limited amount of research considering the same question in the Turkish labor market, wage gap between formal and informal employees generally do not take unobserved characteristics into account. In our paper, we carry this analysis for Turkey and estimate the wage gap between formal and informal sector workers utilizing panel data from Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) for the period of 2014 and 2017. Mincer wage equations across quantiles are estimated considering observable and unobservable characteristics with a fixed effect model, and for sensitivity tests we regard the possibility of nonlinearity in covariate effects and estimate a variant of matching models. Our results show that informal wage penalty is persistent even after unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, however, the penalty is not statistically significant at the upper end of the wage distribution. Moreover, we show that there are important differences between informal workers who have permanent contracts versus informal workers that have relatively more irregular work arrangements. Not only the latter is subject to earnings reductions, but they also have slightly lower probability of moving out of informal employment. We also demonstrate that the mobility of lower and upper tier informal workers is affected by different variables.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the role of long-term vacancies in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides style search and matching model calibrated to the US economy and identifies a vacancy depletion channel.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 654, 2020

Long Live the Vacancy – Download PDF
by Haefke, Christian & Reiter, Michael

GLO Fellow Christian Haefke

Author Abstract: We reassess the role of vacancies in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides style search and matching model. In the absence of free entry long lived vacancies and endogenous separations give rise to a vacancy depletion channel which we identify via joint unemployment and vacancy dynamics. We show conditions for constrained efficiency and discuss important implications of vacancy longevity for modeling and calibration, in particular regarding match cyclicality and wages. When calibrated to the postwar US economy, the model explains not only standard deviations and autocorrelations of labor market variables, but also their dynamic correlations with only one shock.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 652, 2020

Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States – Download PDF
by Chen, Shuai

GLO Fellow Shuai Chen

Author Abstract: This paper examines how economic insecurity and cultural anxiety have triggered different dimensions of the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit two quasi-natural experiments, the Great Recession and the 2014 Northern Triangle immigrant influx, to investigate the effects of unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. I discover that recent unemployment during the Great Recession, rather than existing unemployment from before the recession, increased the probability of attitudes forming against wealthy elites by 15 percentage points. Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic unfairness as a mechanism through which recent unemployment drove left-wing populism. However, cultural anxiety rather than economic insecurity more likely led to the over 10 percentage points rise in the probability of anti-immigration attitudes developing. These attitudes are related to right-wing populism. Furthermore, I obtain evidence that cohorts economically suffering the aftermath of the Great Recession were associated with 40 percentage points higher likelihood of supporting left-wing populist Bernie Sanders, while cohorts residing in regions most intensely impacted by the immigrant in ux were associated with 10 percentage points higher possibility to vote for right-wing populist Donald Trump. This study attempts to link distinct economic and cultural driving forces to different types of populism and to contribute to the understanding on the potential interactions of the economic and cultural triggers of the currently surging populism.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper quantifies the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 653, 2020

Impacts of COVID-19 on Food Security: Panel Data Evidence from Nigeria – Download PDF
by Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan

GLO Fellow Luca Tiberti

Author Abstract: This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households’ experience of food insecurity by 13 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 11 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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