A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the effect of USA military service in Vietnamon incarceration outcomes, with effects among white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Employing nonparametric bounds, we examine the effect of military service on incarceration outcomes using the Vietnam draft lotteries as a possibly invalid instrumental variable for military service. The draft is allowed to have a direct effect on the outcomes independently of military service, disposing of the exclusion restriction. We find: (i) suggestive but not strong statistical evidence that the direct effect of the draft increases the incarceration rate for violent offenses for a particular cohort of draft avoiders, and (ii) military service increases the incarceration rate for violent and nonviolent crimes of white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Overall mobility declined during the COVID-19 pandemic because of government lockdowns and voluntary social distancing. Yet, aggregate data mask important heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality.
A new GLO Discussion Paper provides an assessment of the targeted approach to COVID-19 containment.Under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
A new article published in the Journal of Population Economicssuggests that Donald Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases in the United States had been 5 percent lower.
COVID-19 brought the change Photo by Charles Deluvio on Unsplash
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Abel Brodeur
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Weymouth, Stephen Pre-publication revisedGLODP710[pre.].
Author Abstract: What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics discusses why it is so vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic and reveal the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior in the USA.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic
by Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Zahn, Matthew V.; Belot, Michèle; van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline; Choi, Syngjoo; Jamison, Julian C. & Trpodi, Egon
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue 2/2021. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdCjh OPEN ACCESS.
Author Abstract: Given the role of human behavior in the spread of disease, it is vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic. This paper examines factors associated with the adoption of self-protective health behaviors, such as social distancing and mask wearing, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA. These behaviors not only reduce an individual’s own risk of infection but also limit the spread of disease to others. Despite these dual benefits, universal adoption of these behaviors is not assured. We focus on the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior, relying on data collected in April 2020 during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data include information on income, gender and race along with unique variables relevant to the current pandemic, such as work arrangements and housing quality. We find that higher income is associated with larger changes in self-protective behaviors. These gradients are partially explained by the fact that people with less income are more likely to report circumstances that make adopting self-protective behaviors more difficult, such as an inability to tele-work. Both in the USA and elsewhere, policies that assume universal compliance with self-protective measures—or that otherwise do not account for socioeconomic differences in the costs of doing so—are unlikely to be effective or sustainable.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsindicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distributionsuggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing
by Botha, Ferdi; de New, John P.; de New, Sonja C.; Ribar, David C. & Salamanca, Nicolás
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for Issue2/2021. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdBX6 FREE ACCESS to PDF. Previous version GLO DP 661.
Author Abstract: Australia’s economy abruptly entered into a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. Related labour market shocks on Australian residents have been substantial due to business closures and social distancing restrictions. Government measures are in place to reduce flow-on effects to people’s financial situations, but the extent to which Australian residents suffering these shocks experience lower levels of financial wellbeing, including associated implications for inequality, is unknown. Using novel data we collected from 2078 Australian residents during April to July 2020, we show that experiencing a labour market shock during the pandemic is associated with a 29% lower level of perceived financial wellbeing, on average. Unconditional quantile regressions indicate that lower levels of financial wellbeing are present across the entire distribution, except at the very top. Distribution analyses indicate that the labour market shocks are also associated with higher levels of inequality in financial wellbeing. Financial counselling and support targeted at people who experience labour market shocks could help them to manage financial commitments and regain financial control during periods of economic uncertainty.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio, and their impact on intra-household bargaining, on both the quantity and the quality of children. We first present the theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of conflicting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male to female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children, but a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio, as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970, in the absence of the decrease in the sex ratio.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Italy that immigrants with stronger feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country have higher employment rates, while those who exclusively identify with the host country culture do not have a net occupational advantage.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between social identity and labor market outcomes of immigrants. Using survey data from Italy, we provide robust evidence that immigrants with stronger feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country have higher employment rates, while those who exclusively identify with the host country culture do not have a net occupational advantage. Analysis of the potential mechanisms suggests that, although simultaneous identification with host and home country groups can be costly, the positive effect of multiple social identities is especially triggered by the enlarged information transmission and in-group favoritism that identification with, and membership of, extended communities ensure.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly in China.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Does social participation improve cognitive abilities of the elderly?
by Cai, Shu
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cdjPu
Author Abstract: This paper examines the effect of social participation on cognitive performance using data from a longitudinal survey of the elderly in China. It addresses the problem of endogenous participation by exploiting the variation in changes in social participation that are driven by changes in community service for social activities. The results show that participating in social activities has significantly positive impacts on cognitive function among the elderly. The point estimates indicate that engaging in social activity raises cognitive scores by 29% of a standard deviation.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for China that research universities can have negative effects on local economic development.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper studies whether research universities can boost regional economic development through an exogenous shock of a forced relocation of a research university in China. We analyze the development in the treated regions compared with a set of control regions that are created using the synthetic control method and find that research universities can have negative effects on local economic development. We then perform a series of robustness checks. Our main results carry through. By employing a more exogenous shock and more reliable identification strategies, our study provides evidence that research universities do not necessarily promote regional economic development.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that policies supporting development in low-income countries are associated with less emigration to all destinations, including the rich economies.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The ‘mobility transition’ hypothesis – with emigration first increasing and then decreasing as a country develops – (Zelinsky, 1971) is often interpreted as a stylised fact, which bears the implication that immigration into rich countries will grow as low-income countries develop. This paper tests the relationships between development and emigration from 130 developing countries during 25 years. Results, robust to different semiparametric and parametric specifications, show that emigration from low to middle-income countries declines as income increases, education improves or population growth slows down. The stage of development at home also affects the main destinations of emigration. Immigration into rich economies increases from countries at intermediate levels of development. Hence, policies supporting development in low-income countries are associated with less emigration to all destinations, including that to rich economies.
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With immediate effect, Grégory Ponthière (UCLouvain) joins the group of Editors of the Journal of Population Economics. He will work with Editors Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University), Oded Galor (Brown University), Terra McKinnish (University of Colorado Boulder), Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT) and with Managing Editors Michaella Vanore (UNU-MERIT) and Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida).
Interview with Grégory Ponthière
GLO: What brought you to population economics?
Grégory Ponthière: As a Ph.D. student in Economics in Cambridge in the early 2000s, I became interested in the measurement of human welfare across long periods of time. From that perspective, variations in survival conditions play a fundamental role, since the finiteness of life is a major cause of scarcity and deprivation for humans. This definitely oriented my research at the intersection of economic theory and demography.
GLO: Why can micro theory help us to understand demographic processes?
Grégory Ponthière: Demographic outcomes (fertility, mortality, migration) are influenced by economic factors, in particular individual endowments in terms of physical or human capital, and also by prices faced by individuals (e.g. the wage rate, housing prices). Thus demographic processes cannot be understood without considering the economic conditions under which they take place. This makes the microeconomic analysis of demographic trends fundamental: focusing on microeconomic foundations allows us to identify conditions under which existing population trends can be rationalized or explained. But I would go even further, and defend the view that most economic processes – in particular accumulation mechanisms and dynamics – cannot be understood without considering demography. Economic and demographic outcomes are joint products, and this makes population economics a central field of economic analysis.
GLO: Explain us your field of specialization!
Grégory Ponthière: My research lies at the intersection of economic theory and demography. It focuses, from a theoretical perspective, on multidirectional relations between economic variables and demographic outcomes. I published several papers on the economic rationalization of mortality variations (within a population at a given period and across long periods of time), and also on the microeconomic study of the timing of births (in particular the advancement of births in the early 20th century, followed by a postponement of births starting in the 1970s). Besides those positive studies, my research also examined the design of optimal public policies when demographic outcomes are endogenously determined within the economy, and depend on material living conditions faced by individuals. Those normative studies involved the design of prevention policies, pensions, long term care social insurance, family policies (in particular family allowances) and fiscal policies (the taxation of savings and bequests).
GLO: What excites you most in your current research?
Grégory Ponthière: My current research focuses on the construction of a fair Welfare State, and on the normative foundations behind public policies. Since the pioneer works of Bentham and Mill, there is a long tradition, in Economics, which adopts utilitarianism as an ethical benchmark (the principle of “the largest happiness for the largest number”). My current research aims at identifying the unattractive implications of utilitarianism in the context where the population is heterogeneous on important dimensions (e.g. the genetic background determining longevity outcomes or the natural fecundity of individuals), and proposes to rethink the design of the Welfare State while adopting alternative normative foundations, which lay a stronger emphasis on equalizing welfare across individuals (either in ex ante terms or in ex post terms). Taking unequal demographic outcomes into account – beyond the mere “representative agent” – does not leave the design of the Welfare State unchanged.
GLO: Why have you accepted to take the Editor position?
Grégory Ponthière: I have been doing research in population economics since the beginning of my Ph.D. thesis, almost 20 years ago. Thus I have a long-lasting interest in that field of economic research. During that period, my research has greatly benefited from the (indirect) supervision of editors of journals, and also from the work of a large number of anonymous reviewers. It is time for me to contribute to the public good, by participating more actively to the life of scientific journals, not only as an author or as a reviewer, but also as an editor. Joining the Editorial team of the Journal of Population Economics is a unique opportunity to contribute actively to the flourishing of that exciting area of research.
GLO: Where do you see promising fields for population theory the Journal could explore?
Grégory Ponthière: At the micro level, I can see two promising areas of research, which are quite complementary. The first one concerns the modelling of the human life cycle, which faces serious limitations when considering basic decisions (e.g. the long term care insurance puzzle). In particular, the inclusion, within the lifecycle model, of the risk about the duration of life is challenging. A second – related – field concerns the modelling of the interests of economic agents at the two extremities of life: childhood and old-age dependency. Public policies should take the interests of the very young and of the very old into account, but the problem is that those individuals may not have well-defined preferences in the same way as adults can have. The microeconomic analysis of the family thus still faces major challenges, and those challenges are also relevant for the macroeconomic study of demographic trends. Finally, another fundamental challenge for population economics concerns the design of the Welfare State when demographic variables react to public policies, i.e. abstracting from the usual “ceteris paribus” assumption. This last point is most relevant in the context of the corona crisis.
GLO: Will the coronavirus change the world of academic publishing?
Grégory Ponthière: It is too early to know what will be the long-run consequences of coronavirus on the society, and on the world of science in particular. But one thing is certain: the corona crisis does not only affect health and mortality outcomes around the world, but it also deteriorates teaching and learning conditions in all universities. As such, this deteriorates the foundations of science in the future.
*************************** With Editor and GLO FellowGrégory Ponthière spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President & Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics.
Grégory Ponthière
GLO FellowGregory Ponthiereis a Professor of Economics and Philosophy at the Hoover Chair in Economic and Social Ethics, UCLouvain, and an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics. Before joining UCLouvain, he held permanent positions at the Ecole Normale Superieure and at the University Paris XII, and was an Associate Researcher at the Paris School of Economics. His research focuses on relations between economic and demographic outcomes, from a positive perspective (rationalization of stylized facts) and a normative perspective (design of a fair Welfare State). His publications include three books and articles in journals such as the Journal of Economic Theory, the International Economic Review, Social Choice and Welfare and the Journal of Public Economics. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Institut Universitaire de France.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms of UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 at the heart of the government’s austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 imposed a series of welfare cuts, which disproportionately impacted ex-ante poorer areas. In this paper, we consider the impact of these austerity measures on two different but complementary elements of crime – the crime rate and the less-studied concentration of crime – over the period 2011-2015 in England and Wales, and document four new facts. First, areas more exposed to the welfare reforms experience increased levels of crime, an effect driven by a rise in violent crime. Second, both violent and property crime become more concentrated within an area due to the welfare reforms. Third, it is ex-ante more deprived neighborhoods that bear the brunt of the crime increases over this period. Fourth, we find no evidence that the welfare reforms increased recidivism, suggesting that the changes in crime we find are likely driven by new criminals. Combining these results, we document unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms at the heart of the UK government’s austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program. More deprived districts are more exposed to the welfare reforms, and it is these districts that then experience the further negative consequences of the reforms via increased crime. Our findings underscore the importance of considering both multiple dimensions of crime as well as considering different levels of spatial aggregation of crime data. Given that it is violent crime that responds to the (economicallybased) welfare cuts, our work also highlights the need to develop better economic models of non-rational crime.
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TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on January 7, 2021, London/UKat 1-2 pm, by Cynthia Bansak, St. Lawrence University and GLO on Endogamous Marriage among Immigrant Groups: The Impact of Deportations under Secure Communities. Below find a report and the video of the seminar.
Report
Endogamous Marriage among Immigrant Groups: The Impact of Deportations under Secure Communities
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the recent increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility in Italy.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of low-skilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if the flow of immigrants as actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants – many of them specialized in the supply of child care – arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that newly arrived immigrant female workers have increased the number of native births by roughly 2 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility choice.
A new GLO Discussion Paper discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Self-employment contributes to employment growth and innovativeness and many individuals want to become self-employed due to the autonomy and exibility it brings. Using “subjective well-being” as a broad summary measure that evaluates an individual’s experience of being self-employed, the chapter discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction, even though the self-employed often earn less than their employed peers, work longer hours and experience more stress and higher job demands. Despite being more satisfied with their jobs, the self-employed do not necessarily enjoy higher overall life satisfaction, which is due to heterogeneity of types of self-employment, as well as motivational factors, work characteristics and institutional setups across countries.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that Northern Italy around 1650–1799 was a more “Malthusian” society than England at that time.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy?
by Maja Pedersen, Claudia Riani & Paul Sharp
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/cdgq1
Author Abstract: The Malthusian model, which implies a long-run interaction between demography and living standards, forms a cornerstone of our understanding of comparative economic development, as postulated by unified growth theory. Its empirical validity has been supported by a number of studies, most of which examine England. In Northern Italy, however, there might have been a reversed “preventive check.” We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Italian data from ca. 1650–1799 and find some evidence for this, but also for diminishing returns and thus a more “Malthusian” society than in, for example, England at that time.
A new GLO Discussion Paper debates the famous Easterlin Paradox that states that at a point in time happiness varies directly with income, both among and within nations, but over time the long-term growth rates of happiness and income are not significantly related.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The Easterlin Paradox states that at a point in time happiness varies directly with income, both among and within nations, but over time the long-term growth rates of happiness and income are not significantly related. The principal reason for the contradiction is social comparison. At a point in time those with higher income are happier because they are comparing their income to that of others who are less fortunate, and conversely for those with lower income. Over time, however, as incomes rise throughout the population, the incomes of one’s comparison group rise along with one’s own income and vitiates the otherwise positive effect of own-income growth on happiness. Critics of the Paradox mistakenly present the positive relation of happiness to income in cross-section data or in short-term time fluctuations as contradicting the nil relation of long-term trends.
Athens, Greece; January 6-8, 2021. The 34th EBES conference takes place virtually. GLO & EBES President Klaus F. Zimmermann has opened the conference on January 6 together with Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, Vice President, EBES & Istanbul Medeniyet University, Turkey, and Michael Chletsos, University of Piraeus, Greece. Conference program.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents a harming effect of the Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the successful lockdown in Vietnam kept mortality amazingly low, but had negative effects on unemployment, the temporary layoff rate, and the quality of employment. It also reduced workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Vietnam is widely praised for its successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has had an extremely low mortality rate of 35 deaths to date (out of a population of approximately 100 million) and currently has no community transmission. We offer the first study that examines the effects of the COVID-19-induced lockdown on various employment outcomes for Vietnam. We employ difference-in-differences econometric models to estimate the causal effects of the lockdown, using rich individual-level data from the quarterly Labor Force Surveys. We find that the lockdown increases the unemployment rate, the temporary layoff rate, and decreases the quality of employment. It also reduces workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages. Our estimation results remain robust to different model specifications and estimation samples. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects vary across education levels and occupation sectors but are similar across regions or provinces with different lockdown durations.
Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.
GLO Policy Brief No. 4 – Theme 3. Future of Work – Covid-19
From “Future of Work” to “Building Better”: 2021, the year of a Global Policy Rethink ?
by Azita Berar
A year ago, 2019 ended with a pick in analyses, forecasts and policy debates on what the “Future of Work” would or should look like. Hopes and fears were expressed about the implications of the latest technological innovations , labelled “Industry 4.0”, for labour markets and more fundamentally for society and humanity. It is bewildering to see how, in less than 10 months, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as a global threat, the center of focus of both analysis and policy has radically shifted to entrenched inequalities and vulnerabilities and the deep running fault lines in our political and economic systems.
As 2020 closed down, we submit that the COVID-19 crisis has done more in generating a new momentum for paradigm shift and for indicating the avenues for a social reconstruct than all the preceding years of analysis, forecasts and policy negotiations around the Future of Work. ____________________
What we should know
2019 ended with a flurry of publications, national and international policy discussion on the “Future of Work” engaging multiple stakeholders. These discussions had started mid-decade, triggered by the rapid acceleration in a new and – some argued, radically different- generation of technological innovations. [1] Hopes were raised by limitless opportunities that these frontier innovations could bring to all sectors of economy, work and life. Fears concerned “externalities”, in particular regarding the potential job destruction and displacement effects of these technologies as well as the slow pace with which, new norms of governance, including cross-border rules, were developed. The new social construct was lagging far behind the pace of technological innovations and their adoption in advanced and emerging economies.
A year later, as 2020 has closed, it is astounding to see the tremendous shift in perspective and policy debate. The COVID-19 pandemic humbled the humanity by exposing its fragility on a planetary scale. It left no aspect of life and no sector of the economy unaffected. The pandemic is still raging, forcing continuous reevaluation of human losses and multi-faceted political, social, economic and emotional fallouts. In this Brief, we are not focusing on the sobering and evolving socio-economic impact [2], but on what is certain: the powerful revelatory impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has already had in 2020.
The pandemic shed light- like no other crisis before- on the deep running inequalities and vulnerabilities within societies and across countries and continents. By accelerating pre-existing trends and exposing the fault lines on a scale and in such a compelling manner that left no room for denial, the crisis brought to the fore, the inadequacy of policy paradigms, the need for alternative policy approaches and the quest for a better and fairer world.
The unfulfilled promises of globalization, the environmental exhaustion, the rising inequalities in distribution of wealth and income, the crisis of full and decent employment in all of its facets, as much as the persisting structural discriminations based on gender, race, refugee or migrant status, were not a revelation per se. These trends have been well documented and discussed in policy and experts’ circles, over the years. In 2020, since and as the result of the global spread of COVID-19, the statistics and data buried in numerous analytic and policy reports came to life and wore human faces, making it an everyday visible reality for everyone across the globe.
The pandemic showed the insecure work and life patterns of those women and men who work in the informal economy, 62 percent of the global workforce, who cannot exercise social distancing, apply basic hygiene preventive rules, access health services, or stop work under conditions of lockdown, with no access to alternative income support and safety nets. School closures vividly exposed, the deep divides in access to quality education and to digital technology for millions of children and students enrolled at all levels of education.
It was sobering to observe that in 2020, the year that marks the 25th anniversary of the first World Conference on Women and the launch of a most comprehensive platform of action for promoting gender equality, women in advanced and developing economies alike, remained the default unpaid care takers at home, and occupied most of “essential” frontline occupations in underpaid sectors with part time and insecure contracts.
Youth who have not fully recovered from the employment crisis in the wake of 2008/09 global crisis, have been once more, massively impacted, this time with a twin challenge of completing their education under conditions of lockdown, and facing the prospect of another protracted transition and stalled mobility into work, adulthood and autonomy.
Positive trends recorded in some of global indicators of the 2030 SDG agenda, such as reduction in poverty, hunger and malnutrition have reversed course, with a huge humanitarian crisis looming in the horizon.
But the pandemic also brought the “Future of Work” faster and closer to home. The expansion of remote and online work, pointed to a new dualism in the labour markets, jobs that can be performed remotely and online and those renamed- essential services and critical jobs – that could not. The expansion of online teleworking , beyond the flexibility and resilience it enables, is forcing managers and employees alike to re-consider the value of inter-personal and social interactions and to re-think the nature of future workplace arrangements.
As demand expanded exponentially for the digital delivery sector and other on-demand services, the pandemic exposed the ambiguity in the prevailing business models and employment relationships in these sectors. In some instances, this increased visibility of these types of new non-standard forms of employment accelerated the adoption and implementation of new legal and social protection norms including rise in minimum wages.
More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis, by laying bare inequalities and socio-economic divides of various types, questioned the fundamental underpinnings of policies and policy paradigms enacted over last decades, that allowed and deepened such uneven and unfair outcomes. In short, the pandemic diffused across societies, a new sense of urgency and a moral imperative for a rethink of policy.
Will 2021 be the inflection point to unleash and accelerate such a paradigm shift?
2020 was an exceptional year of reflection and soul-searching on what is essential and critical to humans? On the relationship between humans, nature and science? What determines resilience to future shocks and what scope should there be for national sovereignty, and for inter-dependence, solidarity and cooperation?
Exceptional measures and massive stimulus packages, were announced and partially deployed in major economies, to deal with the most immediate impact of the pandemic and to prevent a catastrophic socio-economic collapse. These measures were exceptional not only in size, surpassing tens of Trillion dollars already in June 2020, but also in the range and types of policy levers used. There was not much hesitation to push aside stringent prudential rules introduced by the same economies and institutions with respect to the debt to GDP ratio, or the time limit for the debt payments, for example. [3]
Beyond immediate relief and recovery packages, calls to “Reset Capitalism”, “Renew the social contract”, reinvent solidarity, rethink public- private cooperation…. are emanating from diverse stakeholders with often diverging interests. More significantly, the importance of interventionist role of the state in sustaining the economy and jobs and in leading environmental transitions, is rehabilitated and valued. The demand for a stronger role of public policy and public investment in health, education, universal social protection, basic income have resurfaced to the top of mainstream policy debate and agenda.
The serious consideration in policy circles and political campaigns, of New Green Deal proposals, Public Job Guarantee schemes , local community development strategies in the United States alone, is a testimony of the extent to which, the pendulum has swung away from orthodox market fundamentalism. Although these ideas are not new, they have come out of background, gained in vigor and adherence in a short period of time.
It is yet early to judge, how far and how bold will the recovery plans go and what will be the scope of this “rethink”, beyond remedial and recovery responses. Will recovery plans, as announced and promised, become accelerators of digitalization and transition to low carbon economy and embed fiscal policies that promote greater equality and “just transitions”?
Are these circumstantial crisis-induced responses that will deflate once the health hazard and the ensuing economic recession are seen to have been brought under control? Will once again, reform be stalled and austerity replace stimuli, as in the aftermath of 2008/9 crisis. Or will it be really different this time, as more and more parties think that a return to status quo ante is not an option, and the future cannot be about building back but building better and different!
Will 2021 be seen as an inflection point as much as 1945 ushered a new era of social innovation and reconstruct, following the devastation of the second World War?
In the current global political context of divided societies, weakened democracies, growing mistrust in institutions and fragmented multilateralism, the odds for a collective political will to emerge and to lead a new wave of reform, may not seem very high. However the pandemic and its consequences have also awakened and re-mobilized forces of citizenship, advocates of participatory and solidary development and democracy and re-invigorated labour and social movements. These factors combined have generated such high demands and societal expectations that cannot be left unanswered and are not ready to recede.
Paradigm shifts do not occur overnight, however the COVID-19 crisis by sweeping away with such speed a few more myths associated with market fundamentalism and unleashed globalization, has brought us so much closer to the imperative and possibility of building a new social trust.
The year 2020 has closed with the pandemic still ravaging lives, economies and societies across the globe. Humanity is entering 2021 with the renewed hope in science and in new vaccines- which signal that the end of this pandemic might be in sight- but uncertain about how far away and at what cost. More significantly, the COVID-19 crisis has re-ordered our value system and reshaped the policy debate by pointing out that the problem is not technology but the deep political, economic and social divides. The shock and response have created a new momentum for a fundamental policy rethink and action in a way that all the preceding discussions on the Future of Work had not succeeded. Will the momentum be seized? What is certain is that 2021 will be looked at as the inflection year, where a new course seemed possible through a broad understanding of human agency, embracing multi-layered social mobilizations and political leaderships. __________________
[1] The Policy Brief No. 1 on Automation, inequality and jobs, in this Policy Forum, included references to major reports on Future of Work published since 2013. It also highlighted that most analyses overlooked the specific dynamics of technological adoption and labour markets in low income countries with large swaths of rural and informal economy workers. [2] For regular updates and estimates see the following websites: COVID-19 Worldwide Dashboard – WHO Live World Statistics: Socio-economic impact of COVID-19 | UNDP; ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. 6th edition. [3] It should be noted however that this flexibility, sits in sharp contrast to the lack of solidarity and international financial support to fiscal policies in particular, in middle-income developing countries. Coordinated stimuli response and use of multilateral institutional mechanisms have been disappointing. In particular the combined response of G20, World Bank and IMF are falling short of providing the financial and fiscal space needed for an adequate COVID-19 response in much of mid-income developing countries.
NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
Reflected by the GLO Website glabor.org, 2020 has been another very active year of the network. This was based on the hard work of our activists on all levels and on the constructive support of our various partners around the globe.
Thanks to all GLO Fellows, Affiliates and partners! And the wider audience in the profession and the society for your interest!
While the coronavirus is a challenge to globalization, global collaboration is also the best response. Hence, we went on and started a number of initiatives for which the world has become more open and more flexible. Our experience is that the willingness to communicate and interact has increased.
Below I present a short overview on GLO’s major achievements in the past year 2020.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO – President
Overview: GLO Activities 2020
More than daily News(Please register on the GLO cover page to receive email notifications.)
Volume 34, issue 1, 2021 of the Journal of Population Economics is published. See below the list of articles and access links to read or download the contributions.
A Journal of Population Economics Online Workshop hosted by UNU-MERIT, Maastricht took place on November 19, 2020 (2-5 pm CET). The detailed agenda is below presenting highlights on “Covid-19” and “societal conflict” from the new issue.
Journal of Population Economics: Report Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University)
Michaella Vanore
Klaus F. Zimmermann
2.15 – 2.45 pm CET Maastricht
Lead paper Issue 1/2021: Session Chair Terra McKinnish (Editor; University of Colorado Boulder)
Terra McKinnish, Editor, Journal of Population Economics
“Names and behavior in a war” presented by Štěpán Jurajda (CERGE-EI, Prague) Co-author: Dejan Kovač (Princeton University and Zagreb)
Discussion
Michaella Vanore
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Terra McKinnish
Štěpán Jurajda
Dejan Kovač
2.45 – 3.15 pm CET Maastricht
Kuznets Prize 2021: “Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China”, published in the Journal of Population Economics (2020), 33(4), pp. 1127–1172. OPEN ACCESS.
Bartel Van de Walle (Director, UNU-MERIT) presented UNU-MERIT & delivered the prize laudation.
Panel with the authors chaired by Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University): Yun Qiu (Jinan University), Xi Chen (Yale University), and Wei Shi (Jinan University)
Yun Qiu
From the left: Xi Chen, Wei Shi and Klaus F. Zimmermann
Bartel Van de Walle
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Yun Qiu
Xi Chen
Wei Shi
3.15 – 4.00 pm CET Maastricht
Panel: Publishing in Population Economics Alessandro Cigno (Editor; University of Florence), Shuaizhang Feng (Editor; Jinan University), Oded Galor (Editor; Brown University), Pierre Pestieau (Editor; Université de Liège), Erdal Tekin (Editor; American University), Katharina Wetzel-Vandai (Springer Nature), Junsen Zhang (Editor; Chinese University of Hong Kong), Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University)
The Panel debate was organized to honor the contributions of Sandro Cigno to Population Economics and to the success of the Journal of Population Economics. Cigno celebrated his 80th birthday on December 24, 2020 and retired on December 31, 2020 from his position as Editor of the Journal. MORE DETAILS from the Panel see separate post in his honor.
Sandro Cigno, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Katharina Wetzel-Vandai, Erdal Tekin
Shuaizhang Feng
Oded Galor
Pierre Pestieau
Junsen Zhang
Alessandro Cigno (Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 2020)
Shuaizhang Feng (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2020 – )
Oded Galor (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2019 – ; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Economic Growth)
Pierre Pestieau (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 1995; previously: Co-Editor Journal of Public Economics)
Erdal Tekin (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2010 – 2018; Editor-in-Chief Journal of Policy Analysis and Management)
Junsen Zhang (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2001 – 2019; Coeditor, Journal of Human Resources)
Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; Managing Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – ; previously: Managing Editor, Economic Policy)
4.00 – 5.00 pm CET Maastricht
Madeline Zavodny, Managing Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
Covid-19 in Issue 1/2021: Session Chair Madeline Zavodny (Managing Editor; University of North Florida)
Fabio Milani (University of California, Irvine): “COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies” Discussion
Domenico Depalo (Bank of Italy): “True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data” Discussion
Fabio Milani
Domenico Depalo (
Fabrizio Patriarca (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia): “Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures” Co-authors: Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Giovanni Gallo (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis) Discussion
Sergio Scicchitano (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis): “Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19” Co-authors: Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Giovanni Gallo (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis) Discussion
Fabrizio Patriarca
Sergio Scicchitano
Madeline Zavodny
Domenico Depalo
Fabrizio Patriarca
Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
END of the event
Michaella Vanore, Managing Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway that miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility has similar negative effects for all three children on female earnings in the short-run, while a catch up afterwards shows only for the third child.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children by Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS .
Author Abstract: We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics examined a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia to show that it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program
by Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccQWs
Author Abstract: We use data from the Familias en Acción program in Colombia to examine the spillover or indirect effects of a conditional cash transfer program. Our results show that the program has significant spillover effects: it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness. The benefits are stronger for women and the elderly in the short run and for men in the medium run. Our analysis suggests that these spillovers are driven by increased access to information in the household that creates a public good.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics is studyingRussian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA to find high degrees of occupational segregation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Identifying ethnic occupational segregation
by Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccPoZ
Author Abstract: Many studies consider occupational segregation among the immigrant population from a given birth country as a whole. This ignores potential ethnic heterogeneity within an immigrant population and may underestimate occupational segregation. We focus on Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA—then a major immigrant population with a high degree of ethnic diversity, including Russian, Jewish, German, and Polish ethnics—and study occupational segregation by ethnicity. We apply a machine learning ethnicity classification approach to 1930 US census data based on name and mother tongue. Using the constructed ethnicity variable, we show high degrees of occupational segregation by ethnicity within the Russian-born immigrant population in the USA. For example, Jews, German ethnics, and Polish ethnics were concentrated in trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, respectively. We also find evidence that Russian-born immigrants’ labor market outcomes were associated with networks measured by the spatial concentration of co-ethnics—particularly more established ones—but not by the concentrations of other ethnic groups.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics suggests on the basis of a historical model analysis that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria
by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Open Access
Author Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Collaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand affiliate. The two organizations will support each other in their common missions on research and educational issues. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO in Thailand and beyond. GLO Fellow and GLO Country Lead Thailand Ruttiya Bhula-or will head the local activities. The English website with the announcement will be available soon in January 2021.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
TheCollaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University is dedicated to promoting cutting-edge labor researches to facilitate the implementation of policies, and to support the development of labor & socioeconomic data infrastructure and analysis to boost dialogues on labor research toward better wellbeing and decent work in an integrated and sustainable manner. The CU-COLLAR supports cooperation and partnership from a wide range of disciplines and universities with government, private sectors, employers’ representatives, workers’ representatives, international organizations, non-for-profit organizations at national and international levels. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO at Chulalongkorn University, in Thailand and beyond.
Ruttiya Bhula-or is Associate Dean at the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, and GLO Country Lead Thailand. She will act as Head of the local GLO initiatives at CU-COLLAR.
Chulalongkorn University with its Collaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) has become a supporting organization of GLO.
The article “Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics” by GLO Fellow Victoria Vernon and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is now published.
Throughout history, border walls and fences have been built for defense, to claim land, to signal power, and to control migration. The costs of fortifications are large while the benefits are questionable. The recent trend of building walls and fences signals a paradox: In spite of the anti-immigration rhetoric of policymakers, there is little evidence that walls are effective in reducing terrorism, migration, and smuggling. Economic research suggests large benefits to open border policies in the face of increasing global migration pressures. Less restrictive migration policies should be accompanied by institutional changes aimed at increasing growth, improving security and reducing income inequality in poorer countries.
The Journal of Population Economics and GLO communities recently discussed the rise of Population Economics to a significant and flourishing research field in economics and beyond. In an online event on November 19, 2020 hosted by UNU-MERIT/Maastricht, the meeting presented a panel debate on Publishing in Population Economics.
A number of distinguished editors outlined the evolution in the past, expressed their views about future perspectives and the contributions by Alessandro Cigno serving the Journal of Population Economics as an Editor for over 33 years since the beginning.
Professor Cigno had decided to leave this position at the end of the year 2020 while celebrating his 80th birthday on December 24.
Sandro Cigno was one of the founding editors in 1988 and has had a remarkable impact on the position of the Journal in general and its profile in the theory of family and household economics.
Editorial Board of the Journal of Population Economics in 1988
Klaus F. Zimmermann
On the occasion, the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal, Klaus F. Zimmermann, said: “We all will miss Sandro as a strong and independent thinker, a fair and engaged editor, and a reliable and loyal partner over three decades. His friendship and the many inspiring contributions have made the joint mission of creating and establishing the field ofPopulation Economicsan enjoyable and doable task. Impressed by his spirit, fitness and ongoing research engagement, we all wish him at his 80th birthday ongoing good health, fun with his work and last but not least enjoyment with his lovely family.”
Happy birthday, happy holidays, all the best for 2021 and beyond; and thank you very much!
Alessandro Cigno
Università di Firenze; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 2020
Alessandro Cigno
“It is a great pleasure to say a few words on behalf of Sandro Cigno and to express my high esteem of his scientific career and of his personality. I have known Sandro for many years. If we had to date it, I would say our friendship goes back to the early days of the European Society of Population Economics and the Journal of Population Economics. I have great respect for his very long scientific career. This career is marked by excellence and consistency. Sandro offers a fine example of academic longevity. This type of longevity seems to me more common in Europe than in North America. The explanation may lie in the specific incentive structures that prevail in these two continents. My first scientific contact with Sandro was reading his remarkable book “Economics of the Family” published in 1991. One of the first books on the subject, which had a great influence on research in family and population economics. In Sandro’s research, I have mainly been interested in his work at the crossroads of population and public economics. He has published several groundbreaking articles in public economics. I would pinpoint two articles. First, there is the one where he shows the implications that endogenous fertility can have on the design of family policy. “Endogenous fertility and the design of family taxation” (with A. Balestrino and A. Pettini). Then there is the article where he studies social policy in a context of asymmetric information in which many individual characteristics are not observable. “Doing wonders with an egg: optimal redistribution when households differ in market and non- market ability” (with A. Balestrino and A. Pettini). When we started the Journal of Population Economics adventure, theory had an important role. Gradually this role has diminished to almost disappear. This development is not unique to Population Economics; it is no less regrettable. I sometimes have the feeling that, to use Tjalling Koopmans‘ expression, we have entered the era of “measurement without theory”. I am grateful to Sandro for having over the past decades pursued the idea that all empirical work needs to be preceded by sound theory. My hope is that soon we will experience a period with more concern for “measurement with theory”. Finally, a last word on the personality of Sandro. Sandro is a true gentleman, a well-rounded person whom I am happy to count among my friends. He has had an indisputable and lasting influence on our discipline, Population Economics.”
In the Panel Debate in the honor of Sandro Cigno participated the following editors:
Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2020 – ) Oded Galor (Brown University; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2019 – ; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Economic Growth) Pierre Pestieau (Université de Liège; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 1995; previously: Co-Editor Journal of Public Economics) Erdal Tekin (American University; Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2010 – 2018; Editor-in-Chief Journal of Policy Analysis and Management) Katharina Wetzel-Vandai (Economics Editor, Springer Nature) Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2001 – 2019; Coeditor, Journal of Human Resources) Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University; Editor-in-Chief, Managing Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – ; previously: Managing Editor, Economic Policy)
Pierre Pestieau
Oded Galor
Erdal Tekin
Katharina Wetzel-Vandai
Shuaizhang Feng
Junsen Zhang
Sandro Cigno, in the panel debate on November 19, 2020
Video of the Journal event including the panel discussion on Publishing in Population Economics.
Dear GLO Members and Friends: Season’s Greetings, healthy & happy holidays and a healthy & successful New Year 2021! Many thanks for the substantial support GLO has received in 2020!
Covid-19: We were strongly growing with the new constraints. The value of globalization became even more transparent. Thanks for the intensification and deepening of friendships and collaborations.
Click here to see what has happened during the year.
Beethoven year in Bonn 2020 in face of the pandemic, left. Right the year before. All next to the Beethoven Monument, a large bronze statue of Ludwig van Beethoven, on the Münsterplatz in Bonn center; the statue was unveiled on 12 August 1845.
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the effect of one of the largest nutrition assistance programs in early life covering poor rural China.Nutrition supplements effectively increase boys’ weight and reduce their probability of being underweight, while no effect is observed for girls of similar age.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper examines the growth effect of one of the largest nutrition assistance programs in early life. The program covers 5.8 million children in poor rural China and provides 6-24-month old children with a free nutrition supplement that contains nine essential micronutrients. We utilize a phase-in procedure by county for identification and estimate its impact on several early-life health indicators. Robust evidence shows that such nutrition supplements effectively increase boys’ weight and reduce their probability of being underweight. No effect is observed on girls of similar age. These health indicators are related to long-term human capital development. The gender differences in policy impact that are identified in this paper have important implications for nutrition subsidy in the early years of life in developing countries.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the productivity measures used of workers are negatively related to the difficulty and complexity of a specific sub-task.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyze the impact of within-task difficulty and complexity on workers’ productivity in online labor markets. Using a randomized control quasi-experiment in AMT we are able to define the difficulty and complexity embodied in requested sub-tasks within a problem-solved task. We find that our productivity measures are negatively related to the difficulty and complexity of a specific sub-task. This finding is robust to several sources of workers’ heterogeneity and to different pay schemes.
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines whether students’ and teachers’ identity play any role in the learning outcome of students.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper we examine whether students’ and teachers’ identity play any role in the learning outcome of students. Specifically, we ask if a student benefits by learning from a teacher of her same gender. Unlike the existing literature which explains such interaction through role model effect or Pygmalion effect, we explain such interaction in terms of gender based sorting behaviour across private and public schools. Our results are driven by two critical differences between male and female individuals. For male and female teachers, the difference comes from their differential transaction costs of traveling to schools at remote locations. For students, the difference between male and female members comes from the differential returns to education accrued to their parents; for girl students, a lower fraction of the return comes to their parental families as they start living with their husband’s family after their marriages. These factors create a sorting pattern which makes the female teachers and students of the highest quality attend private schools in urban location. This creates a positive gender matching effect only for urban, private schools. We find support for our theoretical predictions when we test them using Young Lives Survey (YLS) data collected from Andhra Pradesh.
Hosted by the University of Kent on the invitation of GLO Director Matloob Piracha, the Third Renmin University—GLO Conference on the Chinese Labor Market took place virtually on December 19, 2020. Organizers were GLO Fellows Liqiu Zhao and Zhong Zhao (both Renmin University of China) and GLO Director Matloob Piracha. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & Renmin University of China) also participated in the event. GLO Cluster Lead China Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampten) chaired a session. Program and pictures below.
TOPIC: The Chinese Labor Market Beijing Time: 16:00-21:20; Berlin Time: 9:00-14:20; London Time: 8:00-13:20 December 19 (Saturday), 2020; Virtual Conference through Zoom
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment, and performs a time series principal component analysis to study the relationship.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The main contribution of this work consist on studying sales behaviour and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators through a time series principal component analysis. We study the correlation structure of a large database on prices and found that all product sectors share a common correlation structure and the highest correlation and significance is achieved between employment variation and the first principal component, mostly in the second week of the following month. Sales or promotions, are a channel for price flexibility because firms can use them to change effective prices keeping sticky reference prices. We use a rich database of retail prices from Uruguay to characterize prices’ flexibility, the behavior of sales, and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators. Finally, we find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component analysis to study these relationships.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Erasmus Happiness Economics Research Organization (EHERO) are organizing several special sessions at the ISQOLS Annual Virtual Conference in August 2021 (specific dates to be announced).
Milena Nikolova
The sessions will include high-quality presentations related to cutting-edge research in the field of economics of happiness.
They will also feature several invited presentations of chapters from the “Welfare, Well-Being, Happiness Section” of Section Editor Milena Nikolova of the Springer Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics project edited by Klaus F. Zimmermann. Milena Nikolova, Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, is also the GLO Cluster Lead for “Economics of Happiness”.
The deadline for abstract submissions is February 15, 2021 via the following link https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=isqols2021 Acceptance of papers to the special sessions cannot be guaranteed because of space limitations.
ISQOLS 2021 These sessions are part of the ISQOLS 2021 conference and conference fees for this conference have to be paid accordingly. More information on https://isqols.org/2021Conference/
GLO – EHERO organizers Dr. Martijn Hendriks (EHERO and GLO), Dr. Milena Nikolova (University of Groningen and GLO), and Dr. Martijn Burger (EHERO)
Using panel data on immigrant populations from Europe, Asia and Africa, a new GLO Discussion Paper finds positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health and mental health.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using panel data on immigrant populations from European, Asian and African countries the study estimates positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health (EQ-VAS) and mental health (CESD-20). It is estimated that the patterns are gender sensitive. In addition, it is found that m-Integration applications in relation to translation and voice assistants, public services, and medical services provide the highest returns on immigrants’ level of integration, health/mental health status. For instance, translation and voice assistant applications are associated with a 4% increase in integration and a 0.8% increase in good overall health. Moreover, m-Integration applications aided by artificial intelligence (AI) are associated with increased health/mental health and integration levels among immigrants. We indicate that AI by providing customized search results, peer reviewed e-learning, professional coaching on pronunciation, real-time translations, and virtual communication for finding possible explanations for health conditions might bring better quality services facilitating immigrants’ needs. This is the first known study to introduce the term ‘m-Integration’, quantify associations between applications, health/mental health and integration for immigrants, and assess AI’s role in enhancing the aforementioned outcomes.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies gender differences across multiple dimensionsin individual responses to Covid-19 for the UK and attempts to model the various determinants.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We investigate gender differences across multiple dimensions after three months of the first UK lockdown of March 2020, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 Prolific respondents residents in the UK. We find that women’s mental health was worse than men’s along the four metrics we collected data on, that women were more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceived the virus as more prevalent and lethal than men did. Women were also more likely to expect a new lockdown or virus outbreak by the end of 2020, and were more pessimistic about the contemporaneous and future state of the UK economy, as measured by their forecasted contemporaneous and future unemployment rates. We also show that, between earlier in 2020 before the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and June 2020, women had increased childcare and housework more than men. Neither the gender gaps in COVID-19-related health and economic concerns nor the gender gaps in the increase in hours of childcare and housework can be accounted for by a rich set of control variables. Instead, we find that the gender gap in mental health can be partially accounted for by the difference in COVID-19-related health concerns between men and women.
A new GLO Discussion Paper for Italy suggeststhat measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrollment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Human Capital Theory considers individuals’ education as an investment in terms of money, time, effort, and the renouncement of income opportunities that they expect will be compensated during their working life. While these benefits are mainly in the long run, direct and indirect costs are conditioned by the present circumstances, and in particular, by the macroeconomic conditions. The literature investigating the influence of the business cycle on enrolment decisions often suggests a counter-cyclical relationship without considering that economic fluctuations can produce heterogeneous effects among households facing different economic situations. Through a fixed effects regression based on panel data from the Italian component of the EU-SILC survey, I find the existence of a counter-cyclical propensity to enrol that is symmetric to the stages of the economic cycle. However, after disaggregating the analysis by household income quartiles, results show that a 1% increase in GDP reduces the probability of the poorest individuals being enrolled in non-compulsory education by 1.2%, while the wealthier portion of the population shows an a-cyclical relationship. The policy implications of these results are particularly important as they suggest that measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrolment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the significant impact of a reentry and aftercare service program in the US on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders which is found to be successful.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we explore the impact of a reentry and aftercare service program on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders. Using administrative data within a difference-in-differences design, we find that this social program is associated with a reduction in recidivism rates. Benchmark estimates show that the program was associated with estimated reductions in the probability of recidivating of 6.0 to 8.7 percentage points. The estimate appears to be economically significant as it implies an estimated treated effect in the 15.8 to 19.2 percent range. We consider the heterogeneous effects of the program on reducing recidivism according to race, age group and program type. The program helped to reduce recidivism among Whites but not Blacks; older participants were the main beneficiaries while the effectiveness of the program was observed amongst older participants. Back-of-the-envelope cost-savings analysis is incorporated to estimate the potential savings to the state arising from the reduction in recidivism rates likely attributable to the program. The findings are robust to sample selection bias, alternative specifications and estimation techniques. Our results offer some implications for the role of faith-based social programs within the context of criminal justice reform to combat reentry of former inmates. They also provide a cautionary tale about the need to evaluate programs not just based on their overall effect.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies for the UK and the USA how the increased family time provided by the COVID-19 pandemic has affected well-being differently between countries and gender.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has confined millions in their homes, representing an unprecedented case for spending more time together with family members. This is a challenge for households, given that more time with the partner or children may not necessarily translate into increased well-being. This paper explores subjective well-being in the uses of time for US and UK workers, differentiating between solo activities and activities done with family members, at home and outside the home. Using American and British time use surveys, we compute the instant utility associated with paid work, unpaid work, leisure, and childcare activities. The results show that workers prefer joint leisure to solo leisure, and that significant differences exist between female and male workers for solo and joint market work and housework. Furthermore, we simulate a lockdown situation, which suggests diverging effects of a lockdown in the US and the UK, and on women and men. The conclusions of this paper may help to assess the psychological consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns, beyond the negative economic and labour market consequences.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that child marriage in Pakistan has decreased among women from wealthy and urban households, but is increasingly concentrated among older and less educated women and those belonging to poor, rural households.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Child marriage is still widespread in countries across the Indian Subcontinent. The practice has important consequences for the health and well-being of the woman and the child. In this study, we examine the incidence of child marriage in Pakistan and the changes that have taken place over time in the profile of the women who marry before turning 18. We use data from all the four rounds of the representative Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS), namely 1990 − 91, 2006 − 07, 2012 − 13 and 2017 − 18. With the help of these data, we observe the evolution of the individual and household characteristics of early-marrying women over a span of three decades. We find that the practice of child marriage has become much less generalized over the past three decades. In 2017−18, 39% of married women of child-bearing age (i.e. those between the age of 15 and 49) had got married before the age of 18. Though still high, it is nonetheless lower than the 54% incidence found in 1990 − 91. The decrease is particularly significant among women from wealthy and urban households. The incidence of child marriage is increasingly concentrated among women who are older and less educated and those belonging to poor, rural households. Elimination of the harmful practice of child marriage is crucial for achieving the fifth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) which deals with gender equality. The findings of the study highlight the close links present between child marriage, poverty and urbanization.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the consequences of the macroeconomic situation in Turkey for school-to-work transitions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In emerging market economies, young people feel like little boats in the ocean, due to the low and uncertain macroeconomic context. In the present study, we examine the school-to-work transition in Turkey over the period 2014-2017 by using a monthly dataset. As most emerging market economies, the Turkish one faces a set of different macroeconomic conditions which make it a very hard task for many young graduates to find a job . We use panel logit models which allow studying the determinants of the probability of school-to-work transition completion with a time variant model. We look at such macroeconomic factors as GDP growth, industrial production index, real sector confidence index, real exchange rate and interest rate. In addition, we use some classifications for estimating the wage model for the new graduates and estimate by panel logit models the probability for young graduates of getting a white-collar job. Besides, the estimates are repeated for boom and bust periods, and in credit expansion periods.
Featured image: Photo-by-Mikael-Kristenson-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrant newborns in Italy and finds that the negative effects on immigrants are not equally distributed across ethnicities, but rather they are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnicity and its related network at the municipal level.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Combining a unique dataset of birth records with municipal-level real estate information, we assess the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrant newborns in Italy. Health at birth (e.g., low birth weight) of immigrants deteriorated more than health at birth of Italians. The negative effects on immigrants are not equally distributed across ethnicities, but rather they are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnicity and its related network at the municipal level. Immigrants whose ethnicity is mainly employed in the sectors most affected during the recession, suffered the most. By contrast, the recession hardship is mitigated for immigrants in municipalities where their ethnic network is organized through more registered immigrant associations. The characteristics of ethnic groups and their organization at the municipal level do not explain the heterogeneous effects on Italian newborns and this confirms network rather than neighborhood effects.
Hosted by the University of Kent on the invitation of GLO Director Matloob Piracha, the Third Renmin University—GLO Conference on the Chinese Labor Market takes place virtually on December 19, 2020. Organizers are GLO Fellows Liqiu Zhao and Zhong Zhao (both Renmin University of China) and GLO Director Matloob Piracha. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & Renmin University of China) will participate in the event. GLO Cluster Lead China Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampten) will chair a session. Program and registration details below.
Third Renmin University—GLO Conference
TOPIC: The Chinese Labor Market Beijing Time: 16:00-21:20; Berlin Time: 9:00-14:20; London Time: 8:00-13:20 December 19 (Saturday), 2020; Virtual Conference through Zoom Registration in advance needed (on invitation & GLO members & Renmin University only): https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcvduuspzktG9yzjd46fLtWk3hGiHf8q1ls
A new GLO Discussion Paper surveys the respective literature and provides a mixed picture about the role of unions for firm performance, for instance researchers found higher productivity but lower profitability.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The impact of unions on firm performance has been the subject of debate and controversy in most industrialized countries, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom. The purpose of this chapter is to review and assess the scope and limitations of the economic analysis of unions as well as the controversies surrounding the conclusions of existing empirical research. Although it is difficult to draw firm and general conclusions on the effects of unions on firm performance, the existing results lead us to consider unions not solely in terms of their costs for the company. Empirical results suggest that unionism is often associated with higher productivity but this relationship might vary across industries, institutional contexts and over time. Estimates of the causal mechanisms through which unions affect productivity allow a better understanding of the effects of unions. The literature on the effect of unions on productivity recognizes that part of this effect may work through reducing employee turnover and other mechanisms, such as technological and organizational innovations, which are essential factors of productivity growth. Recent studies dealing with the effects of unions on firm profits support Freeman and Medoff’s (1984) conclusion that unionization is associated with lower profitability. Finally, union activities, especially collective bargaining, trade off some economic efficiency for greater justice in workplaces and reduced inequalities.
School-to-Work Transition: An International Comparative Perspective
for: International Journal of Manpower. Guest Editor: Francesco Pastore. Professor Pastore is Head of the GLO Cluster on School-to-Work Transition and GLO Country Lead Italy.
Francesco Pastore
The school-to-work transition is at the centre of several academic and public debates. It is behind the debate on persistent youth unemployment in many countries. It is also at the centre of the debate on the future of work and the need to adapt educational and training institutions to the needs of the fourth industrial revolution which is ongoing at a pace which has been clearly accelerated by the COVID-19 emergency.
A new GLO Discussion Paper assesses how the UK health care system performed against the norm of horizontal equity in health care access during the first wave of COVID-19 wave.There is no evidence that horizontal equity, with respect to income, was violated for NHS hospital outpatient and inpatient care during the first wave of the pandemic.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using monthly data from the Understanding Society (UKHLS) COVID-19 Survey we analyse the evolution of unmet need and assess how the UK health care system performed against the norm of horizontal equity in health care access during the first wave of COVID-19 wave. Unmet need was most evident for hospital care, and less pronounced for primary health services (medical helplines, GP consultations, local pharmacist advice, over the counter medications and prescriptions). Despite this, there is no evidence that horizontal equity, with respect to income, was violated for NHS hospital outpatient and inpatient care during the first wave of the pandemic. There is evidence of pro-rich inequities in access to GP consultations, prescriptions and medical helplines at the peak of the first wave, but these were eliminated as the pandemic progressed. There are persistent pro-rich inequities for services that relate to individuals’ ability to pay (over the counter medications and advice from the local pharmacist).
