New GLO Discussion Paper: Fluctuations of uncertainty cause fertility fluctuations.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that an increase in economic uncertainty decreases fertility.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 360, 2019

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility – Download PDF
by Gözgör, Giray & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Rangazas, Peter

GLO Fellows Girary Gözgör & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin

Author Abstract: In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty shocks decrease the fertility rate. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.