Category Archives: Discussion Paper

Why Guarantee Employment? Evidence from a Large Indian Public-Works Program. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals the positive effects of a large Indian public works program showing that there is little evidence of a crowding out of private-sector jobs and that it functions as a safety net and encourages risk-taking.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 504, 2020

Why Guarantee Employment? Evidence from a Large Indian Public-Works Program – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Laura

GLO Fellow Laura Zimmermann

Related papers of the author:

Author Abstract: Most countries around the world implement some form of a safety net program for poor households. A widespread concern is that such programs crowd out private-sector jobs. But they could also improve workers’ welfare by allowing them to take on more risk, for example through self-employment. This paper analyzes the employment impacts of the world’s largest public-works program using a novel regression-discontinuity design. The analysis exploits detailed institutional information to describe the allocation formula of the program and to construct a benefit calculator that predicts early and late treatment of districts. The results show that there is little evidence of a crowding out of private-sector jobs. Instead, the scheme functions as a safety net after a bad rainfall shock. Male workers also take on more risk by moving into family employment. This self-revealed preference for a different type of job suggests other potential benefits of safety net programs which so far have received little attention in the literature.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a weak trade-off between aggregated national-level wage inflation and unemployment.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 503, 2020

Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data – Download PDF
by
Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy

GLO Fellow Oleksandr Talavera

Author Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between labour market conditions and wage dynamics by exploiting a unique dataset of 0.8 million online job vacancies. We find a weak trade-off between aggregated national-level wage inflation and unemployment. This link becomes more evident when wage inflation is disaggregated at sectoral and occupational levels. Using exogenous variations in local market unemployment as the main identification strategy, a negative correlation between vacancy-level wage and unemployment is also established. The correlation magnitude, however, is different across regions and skill segments. Our findings suggest the importance of micro data’s unique dimensions in examining wage setting – unemployment relationship.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month is about the Coronavirus. And access to all GLO DPs of March.

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month March suggests that the public health measures adopted in China have effectively contained the virus outbreak there already around February 15.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March

GLO Discussion Paper No. 494, 2020

Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei
PDF of the GLO Discussion Paper

Related interview: #Coronavirus and now? GLO – Interview with Top #Health Economist Xi Chen of Yale University
Other related GLO activities.

GLO Fellows Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi

  • Yun Qiu & Wei Shi are Professors at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University, China
  • Xi Chen is a Professor at Yale University & President of the China Health Policy and Management Society

Author Abstract: This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population flow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19.

GLO Discussion Papers of March 2020

506 The Dynamic Electoral Returns of a Large Anti-Poverty Program – Download PDF
by 
Zimmermann, Laura

505 Do Public Program Benefits Crowd Out Private Transfers in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence – Download PDF
by 
Nikolov, Plamen & Bonci, Matthew

504 Why Guarantee Employment? Evidence from a Large Indian Public-Works Program – Download PDF
by 
Zimmermann, Laura

503 Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data – Download PDF
by 
Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy

502 Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets – Download PDF
by 
Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M.

501 Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits – Download PDF
by 
Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke B.

500 Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity  Download PDF
by 
Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar & Weber, Clas

499 Game of Prejudice – Experiments at the Extensive and Intensive Margin – Download PDF
by 
Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Vecci, Joe & Želinský, Tomáš

498 Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China – Download PDF
by 
Jin, Zhangfeng

497 Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China and India – Download PDF
by 
Emran, M. Shahe & Jiang, Hanchen & Shilpi, Forhad

496 What Do Employers’ Associations Do? – Download PDF
by 
Martins, Pedro S.

495 Does vocational education pay off in China? Instrumental-variable quantile-regression evidence – Download PDF
by 
Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S.

494 Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China – Download PDF
by  
Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wie

493 Flexible Work Arrangements and Precautionary Behavior: Theory and Experimental Evidence  Download PDF
by  
Orland, Andreas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud

492 Life Satisfaction, Subjective Wealth, and Adaptation to Vulnerability in the Russian Federation during 2002-2017 – Download PDF
by  
Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Abanokova, Kseniya & Lokshin, Michael M.

491 Unobserved Worker Quality and Inter-Industry Wage Differentials – Download PDF
by  
Ge, Suqin & Macieira, João

490 Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility – Download PDF
by  
Dessy, Sylvain & Marchetta, Francesca & Pongou, Roland & Tiberti, Luca

489 Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Latin American Economies: An Empirical Approach – Download PDF
by  
Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Pastore, Francesco & Yavuz, Hasan Bilgehan

488 Employee Training and Firm Performance: Quasi-experimental evidence from the European Social Fund – Download PDF
by 
Martins, Pedro S.

487 France and Germany Exceed Italy, South Korea and Japan in Temperature-Adjusted Corona Proliferation: A Quick and Dirty Sunday Morning Analysis – Download PDF
by 
Puhani, Patrick A.

486 Business visits, technology transfer and productivity growth – Download PDF
by  
Piva, Mariacristina & Tani, Massimiliano & Vivarelli, Marco

485 A Broken Social Elevator? Employment Outcomes of First- and Second-generation Immigrants in Belgium – Download PDF
by  
Piton, Céline & Rycx, François

484 What Does Someone’s Gender Identity Signal to Employers? – Download PDF
by  
Van Borm, Hannah & Dhoop, Marlot & Van Acker, Allien & Baert, Stijn

483 The Future of Work in Developing Economies: What can we learn from the South? – Download PDF
by  
Egana del Sol, Pablo

482 Performance Feedback and Peer Effects – Download PDF
by  
Villeval, Marie Claire

481 Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments – Download PDF
by  
Nguyen, Ha Trong & Connelly, Luke B. & Le, Huong Thu & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R.

480 Conversionary Protestants do not cause democracy – Download PDF
by 
Nikolova, Elena & Polansky, Jakub

GLO DP Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that investor sentiments and emotions derived from stock market-related Twitter tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements in developed and emerging markets.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 502, 2020

Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets – Download PDF
by
Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M.

GLO Fellows Talita Greyling and Stephanie Rossouw

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the predictability of stock market movements using text data extracted from the social media platform, Twitter. We analyze text data to determine the sentiment and the emotion embedded in the tweets and use them as explanatory variables to predict stock market movements. The study contributes to the literature by analyzing high-frequency data and comparing the results obtained from analyzing emerging and developed markets, respectively. To this end, the study uses three different Machine Learning Classification Algorithms, the Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors and the Support Vector Machine algorithm. Furthermore, we use several evaluation metrics such as the Precision, Recall, Specificity and the F-1 score to test and compare the performance of these algorithms. Lastly, we use the K-Fold Cross-Validation technique to validate the results of our machine learning models and the Variable Importance Analysis to show which variables play an important role in the prediction of our models. The predictability of the market movements is estimated by first including sentiment only and then sentiment with emotions. Our results indicate that investor sentiment and emotions derived from stock market-related Tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements, not only in developed markets but also in emerging markets.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits in a new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families to find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 501, 2020

Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits – Download PDF
by
Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke B.

GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen, Huong Le & Luke Connelly

Author Abstract: Recent economic literature has advanced the notion that cognitive biases and behavioral barriers may be important influencers of uptake decisions in respect of public programs that are designed to help disadvantaged people. This paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey linked to administrative data with accurate information on eligibility and uptake, we find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits. These actual uptake rates are about half of the targeted access rates that were announced for them. We provide new and robust evidence consistent with the idea that cognitive biases and behavioral factors are barriers to uptake. For instance, mothers with worse mental health or riskier lifestyles are much less likely to claim the available benefits for their children. These barriers to uptake are particularly large in magnitude: together they reduce the uptake rate by up to 10 percentage points (or 36%). We also find some indicative evidence about the presence of the lack of information barrier to uptake. The results are robust to a wide range of sensitivity checks, including controlling for possible endogenous sample selection.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity in a new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 500, 2020

Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity – Download PDF
by
Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar & Weber, Clas

GLO Fellows Astghik Mavisakalyan & Yashar Tarverdi

Mavisakalyan, Astghik

Author Abstract: This paper identifies a new source of differences in religiosity: the presence of future tense marking in language. We argue that the rewards and punishments that incentivize religious behavior are less effective for speakers of languages that contain future tense marking. Consistent with this prediction, we show that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious and to take up the short-term costs associated with religiosity. What is likely to drive this behavior, according to our results, is the relatively lower appeal of the religious rewards for these individuals. Our analysis is based on within country regressions comparing individuals with identical observable characteristics who speak a different language.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Game of Prejudice – Experiments at the Extensive and Intensive Margin. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence based on field experiments for the Roma community in Europe that when the cost of taste-based discrimination is made sufficiently high, such behavior disappears.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 499, 2020

Game of Prejudice – Experiments at the Extensive and Intensive Margin – Download PDF
by
Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Vecci, Joe & Želinský, Tomáš

GLO Fellow Mani Subha

Author Abstract: In an unique lab-in-the-field experiment we design a novel labor market environment, the Game of Prejudice, to elicit preferences for discrimination towards the largest minority group in Europe (the Roma) at the intensive margins as well as at the extensive margins. Our unique experiment design allows us to separate taste-based discrimination from statistical discrimination and examine the impacts of raising the costs of discrimination in such situations. We find discrimination to be commonplace at both margins, with stronger incidence at the extensive margin. We also find higher incidence of taste-based discrimination compared to statistical discrimination. Importantly, we find that when the cost of taste-based discrimination is made sufficiently high, such behaviour disappears at the intensive and extensive margins, providing support for labor market policies that make discrimination very costly for the employer.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in China and India: A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper decomposes gender bias in China and India.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 497, 2020

Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China and India – Download PDF
by
Emran, M. Shahe & Jiang, Hanchen & Shilpi, Forhad

GLO Affiliate Hanchen Jiang

Author Abstract: We incorporate gender bias against girls in the family, the school and the labor market in a model of intergenerational persistence in schooling where parents self-finance children’s education because of credit market imperfections. Parents may underestimate a girl’s ability, expect lower returns, and assign lower weights to their welfare (“pure son preference”). The model delivers the widely-used linear conditional expectation function (CEF) under constant returns and separability, but generates an irrelevance theorem: parental bias does not affect relative mobility. With diminishing returns and complementarity, the CEF can be concave or convex, and gender bias affects both relative and absolute mobility. We test these predictions in India and China using data not subject to coresidency bias. The evidence rejects the linear CEF, both in rural and urban India, in favor of a concave relation. The girls face lower mobility irrespective of location in India when born to fathers with low schooling, but the gender gap closes when the fathers are college educated. In China, the CEF is convex for sons in urban areas, but linear in all other cases. The convexity for urban sons supports the complementarity hypothesis of Becker et al. (2018), and leads to gender divergence in relative mobility for the children of highly educated fathers. In urban China, and urban and rural India, the mechanisms are underestimation of ability of girls and unfavorable school environment. There is some evidence of pure son preference in rural India. The girls in rural China do not face bias in financial investment by parents, but they still face lower mobility when born to uneducated parents. Gender barriers in rural schools seem to be the primary mechanism, with no convincing evidence of parental bias.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that improved welfare benefits substantially increase internal migration in China.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 498, 2020

Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China – Download PDF
by
Jin, Zhangfeng

GLO Fellow Zhangfeng Jin

Author Abstract: This study examines the causal effects of welfare benefits on internal migration decisions. Using a quasi-experimental migration reform across 283 Chinese cities from 2002 to 2015, combined with a difference-in-differences setup, I show that improved welfare benefits substantially increase migration. The observed impact is more pronounced for individuals such as the young, women and medium-low-skilled workers. It is relatively smaller in destinations exposed to larger positive demand shocks, suggesting that improved welfare benefits reduce migration costs. And it persists over the long term. All these findings confirm the existence of sizable welfare magnet effects.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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What Do Employers’ Associations Do? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that Employer Associations affiliated firms in Portugal exhibit better outcomes concerning sales, employment, productivity, and wages.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 496, 2020

What Do Employers’ Associations Do? – Download PDF
by
Martins, Pedro S.

GLO Fellow Pedro S. Martins

Author Abstract: While trade unions have been studied in detail, there is virtually no economics research on employer associations (EAs), trade unions’ counterparts in many countries. However, besides conducting collective bargaining, EAs perform several other activities that can influence economic outcomes, including training and coordination. This paper studies the contributions of EAs by comparing affiliated and non-affiliated firms in terms of sales, employment, productivity, and wages. Using matched employer-employee panel data for Portugal, we find that affiliated firms exhibit better outcomes along most of these dimensions, even when drawing on changes in affiliation status over time; and that this affiliation premium tends to increase with EA coverage (defined as the percentage of workers in the relevant industry/region domain that are employed by affiliated firms). Sectors as a whole also appear to benefit from EA coverage, even if non-affiliated firms do worse.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Does vocational education pay off in China? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that vocational education in China provides a wage premium vis-à-vis academic education of over 30%, but this holds only for individuals at the middle of the conditional wage distribution.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 495, 2020

Does vocational education pay off in China? Instrumental-variable quantile-regression evidence – Download PDF
by
Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S.

GLO Fellow Pedro S. Martins

Abstract: As China’s firms upgrade their position in the quality ladder, vocational education may become more important. In this paper, we study returns to secondary vocational education in China paying attention to individual heterogeneity. We use instrumental variables based on geographical and longitudinal changes in enrollment to address the selection between the two types of education. We find that vocational education provides a wage premium vis-à-vis academic education of over 30% but which applies only for individuals at the middle of the conditional wage distribution.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Flexible Work Arrangements and Precautionary Behavior. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

In recent years, work time in many industries has become increasingly flexible. A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the resulting consequences for intertemporal substitution in individual households.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 493, 2020

Flexible Work Arrangements and Precautionary Behavior: Theory and Experimental Evidence – Download PDF
by 
Orland, Andreas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud

GLO Fellow Davud Rostam-Afschar

Abstract: In the past years, work time in many industries has become increasingly flexible opening up a new channel for intertemporal substitution. To study this, we set up a two-period model with wage uncertainty. This extends the standard savings model by allowing a worker to allocate a fixed time budget between two work-shifts or to save. To test the existence of these channels, we conduct laboratory consumption/saving experiments. A novel feature of our experiments is that we tie them to a real-effort style task. In four treatments, we turn on and off the two channels for consumption smoothing: saving and time allocation. Our four main findings are: (i) subjects exercise more effort under certainty than under risk; (ii) savings are strictly positive for at least 85 percent of subjects (iii) a majority of subjects uses time allocation to smooth consumption; (iv) saving and time shifting are substitutes, though not perfect substitutes.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Life Satisfaction, Subjective Wealth, and Adaptation to Vulnerability in the Russian Federation during 2002-2017. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides the first study on vulnerability adaptation to subjective well-being using panel data for Russia for the past two decades.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 492, 2020

Life Satisfaction, Subjective Wealth, and Adaptation to Vulnerability in the Russian Federation during 2002-2017 – Download PDF
by 
Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Abanokova, Kseniya & Lokshin, Michael M.

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Abstract: We offer the first study on vulnerability adaptation to subjective well-being, using rich panel data over the past two decades for Russia. We found no adaption to vulnerability for life satisfaction and subjective wealth, with longer vulnerability spells being associated with more negative subjective welfare. Similar results hold for other outcomes including satisfaction with own economic conditions, work contract, job, pay, and career. Some evidence indicates that despite little differences between urban and rural areas with life satisfaction, rural areas exhibit a stronger lack of adaptation for subjective wealth, particularly for longer durations of vulnerability. Higher education levels generally exhibit a stronger lack of adaptation. The lack of adaptation to vulnerability is, however, similar at different education levels for subjective wealth. We also find a U-shaped relationship between age and durations of vulnerability and disability to have the most negative impacts on life satisfaction and subjective wealth.

Photo by Dawid Zawiła on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Unobserved Worker Quality and Inter-Industry Wage Differentials. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that unobserved worker quality accounts for approximately two thirds of the inter-industry wage differentials.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 491, 2020

Unobserved Worker Quality and Inter-Industry Wage Differentials – Download PDF
by 
Ge, Suqin & Macieira, João

GLO Fellow Suqin Ge

Abstract: This study quantitatively assesses two alternative explanations for inter-industry wage differentials: worker heterogeneity in the form of unobserved quality and firm heterogeneity in the form of a firm’s willingness to pay (WTP) for workers’ productive attributes. We develop an empirical hedonic model of labor demand and apply a two-stage nonparametric procedure to recover worker and firm heterogeneities. In the first stage we recover unmeasured worker quality by estimating market-specific hedonic wage functions nonparametrically. In the second stage we infer each firm’s WTP parameters for worker attributes by using first-order conditions from the demand model. We apply our approach to quantify inter-industry wage differentials on the basis of individual data from the NLSY79 and find that worker quality accounts for approximately two thirds of the inter-industry wage differentials.

Photo by Alex Kotliarskyi on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility. A new GLO Discussion Paper

In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks can lower the marginal cost of a child and raise fertility. A new GLO Discussion Paper studies this issue using data for Madagascar.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 490, 2020

Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility – Download PDF
by 
Dessy, Sylvain & Marchetta, Francesca & Pongou, Roland & Tiberti, Luca

GLO Fellow Luca Tiberti

Image result for Luca Tiberti

Abstract: In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks can lower the marginal cost of a child and raise fertility. We test this hypothesis using longitudinal data from Madagascar. Exploiting exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits in combination with individual fixed effects, we find that drought occurring in the agricultural season increases the fertility of young women living in agricultural households. This effect is long-lasting, as it is not reversed within four years after the drought occurrence. Analyzing mechanisms, we find that drought does not affect common factors of high fertility such as marriage timing. It operates mainly through a reduction of female agricultural income. Indeed, agricultural drought reduces the number of hours worked by women in agriculture but not men. It has no effect on the fertility of young women living in non-agricultural households, or in non-agrarian communities. Moreover, it does not affect fertility if it occurs during the non-agricultural season. These findings validate the marginal cost hypothesis whereby drought, by reducing the value of women’s agricultural labor, lowers the marginal cost of a child, thus raising fertility.

Photo by Wesley Tingey on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Latin American Countries: A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that in Latin American countries intergenerational occupational transmissions mainly relate to low skilled jobs, confirming a low degree of social mobility.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 489, 2020

Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Latin American Economies: An Empirical Approach – Download PDF
by 
Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Pastore, Francesco & Yavuz, Hasan Bilgehan

GLO Fellows Francesco Pastore & Hasan Bilgehan Yavuz; GLO Affiliate Ömer Tuğsal Doruk

Author Abstract: Identifying the determinants of intergenerational mobility is an important aim in the development literature. In this article, intergenerational transmission is examined for 6 neglected Latin American Economies (Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Puerto Rico). We use a multinomial logit model of the determinants of choosing a white-collar job for a child of a father working in farming as compared to a child whose father had a blue- or a white-collar job. Our findings show that, in the studied countries, intergenerational occupation transmission is mainly linked to low skilled jobs. Our analysis confirms the low degree of social mobility typical of Latin America, contributing, in turn, to explain their low growth rate. Our findings help identifying specific target groups – talented young women coming from the agricultural sector – to develop in them soft skills while at primary or low secondary school and work-related skills while at the high secondary school or at the university.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Employee Training and Firm Performance: Quasi-experimental evidence from the European Social Fund. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides causal evidence that firm-provided training in Portugal leads to increased sales, value added, employment, productivity, and exports.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 488, 2020

Employee Training and Firm Performance: Quasi-experimental evidence from the European Social Fund – Download PDF
by
Martins, Pedro S.

GLO Fellow Pedro S. Martins

Author Abstract: As work changes, firm-provided training may become more relevant for good economic and social outcomes. However, so far there is little or no causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme in Portugal, contrasting successful firms that received the grants and unsuccessful firms that did not. Combining several rich data sets, we compare a large number of potential outcomes of these firms, while following them over long periods of time before and after the grant decision. Our difference-in-differences models estimate significant positive effects on take up (training hours and expenditure), with limited deadweight; and that such additional training led to increased sales, value added, employment, productivity, and exports. These effects tend to be of at least 5% and, in some cases, 10% or more.

Photo by Campaign Creators on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Global race to #lockdown entire countries and the rise in #socialdistancing: What lessons to learn from the outbreak of the #coronavirus in China. A new GLO Discussion Paper on #COVID-19.

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that the public health measures adopted in China have effectively contained the virus outbreak there around February 15.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 494, 2020

Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei
PDF of the GLO Discussion Paper

Related interview: #Coronavirus and now? GLO – Interview with Top #Health Economist Xi Chen of Yale University

GLO Fellows Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi

  • Yun Qiu & Wei Shi are Professors at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University, China
  • Xi Chen is a Professor at Yale University & President of the China Health Policy and Management Society

Author Abstract: This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population flow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Adjusted Corona Proliferation: A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that containment measures may pay off in slowing down proliferation of the Corona virus.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 487, 2020

France and Germany Exceed Italy, South Korea and Japan in Temperature-Adjusted Corona Proliferation: A Quick and Dirty Sunday Morning Analysis – Download PDF
by
Puhani, Patrick A.

GLO Fellow Patrick A. Puhani

Author Abstract: Measures to contain the Corona virus (COVID-19) may pay off in terms of slowing down proliferation. The proliferation trend in France and Germany now exceeds the one in Italy, South Korea and Japan. At the same time, the containment measures seem more intense in Italy, South Korea and Japan than in France and Germany. Nevertheless, decision makers in France and Germany as in other countries need to compare the costs of containment (such as various forms of shut downs, cancellations of events, school closures, isolation, quarantine) with the costs of a faster proliferation of the virus. This is a “quick and dirty Sunday morning” analysis of confirmed Corona cases as published in CSSEGISandData by the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Business visits, technology transfer and productivity growth. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper confirms the key role of business visits as a productivity enhancing channel of technology transfer.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 486, 2020

Business visits, technology transfer and productivity growth – Download PDF
by 
Piva, Mariacristina & Tani, Massimiliano & Vivarelli, Marco

GLO Fellows Mariacristina Piva, Massimiliano Tani & Marco Vivarelli

Related paper: Piva, M., Tani, M. and Vivarelli, M. (2018). Business Visits, Knowledge Diffusion and Productivity. Journal of Population Economics, 31(4): 1321-1338.

Author Abstract: This paper builds on and considerably extends Piva, Tani and Vivarelli (2018), confirming the key role of Business Visits as a productivity enhancing channel of technology transfer. Our analysis is based on a unique database on business visits sourced from the U.S. National Business Travel Association, merged with OECD and World Bank data and resulting in an unbalanced panel covering 33 sectors and 14 countries over the period 1998-2013 (3,574 longitudinal observations). We find evidence that BVs contribute to fostering labour productivity in a significant way. While this is consistent with what found by the previous (scant) empirical literature on the subject, we also find that short-term mobility exhibits decreasing returns, being more crucial in those sectors characterized by less mobility and by lower productivity performances.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Weak Employment Outcomes of First- and Second-generation Immigrants in Belgium. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper using data for Belgium finds not only that first-generation immigrants face a substantial employment penalty in comparison to their native counterparts, but also that their descendants continue to face serious difficulties in accessing the labor market.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 485, 2020

A Broken Social Elevator? Employment Outcomes of First- and Second-generation Immigrants in Belgium – Download PDF
by 
Piton, Céline & Rycx, François

GLO Fellow François Rycx

Author Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the employment performance of first- and second-generation immigrants in Belgium compared to that of natives. Using detailed quarterly data for the period 2008-2014, we find not only that first-generation immigrants face a substantial employment penalty (up to -36% points) vis-à-vis their native counterparts, but also that their descendants continue to face serious difficulties in accessing the labour market. The social elevator appears to be broken for descendants of two non-EU-born immigrants. Immigrant women are also found to be particularly affected. Among the key drivers of access to employment, we find: i) education for the descendants of non-EU-born immigrants, and ii) proficiency in the host country language, citizenship acquisition, and (to a lesser extent) duration of residence for first-generation immigrants. Finally, estimates suggest that around a decade is needed for the employment gap between refugees and other foreign-born workers to be (largely) suppressed.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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What Does Someone’s Gender Identity Signal to Employers? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper innovates in being one of the first to explore the relative empirical importance of dominant (theoretical) explanations for hiring discrimination against transgender men.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 484, 2020

What Does Someone’s Gender Identity Signal to Employers? – Download PDF
by 
Van Borm, Hannah & Dhoop, Marlot & Van Acker, Allien & Baert, Stijn

GLO Fellow Stijn Baert

Author Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the mechanisms underlying hiring discrimination against transgender men. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conduct a scenario experiment with final-year business students in which fictitious hiring decisions are made about transgender or cisgender male job candidates. More importantly, these candidates are scored on statements related to theoretical reasons for hiring discrimination given in the literature. The resulting data are analysed using a bivariate analysis. Additionally, a multiple mediation model is run. Findings – Suggestive evidence is found for co-worker and customer taste-based discrimination, but not for employer taste-based discrimination. In addition, results show that transgender men are perceived as being in worse health, being more autonomous and assertive, and have a lower probability to go on parental leave, compared with cisgender men, revealing evidence for (positive and negative) statistical discrimination. Social implications – Targeted policy measures are needed given the substantial labour market discrimination against transgender individuals measured in former studies. However, to combat this discrimination effectively, one needs to understand its underlying mechanisms. This study provides the first comprehensive exploration of these mechanisms. Originality/value – This study innovates in being one of the first to explore the relative empirical importance of dominant (theoretical) explanations for hiring discrimination against transgender men. Thereby, the authors take the logical next step in the literature on labour market discrimination against transgender individuals.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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The Future of Work in Developing Economies: What can we learn from the South? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper is the first to estimate automation risk rates for developing countries. It finds that occupations containing relatively more routine tasks are more likely to be automated, while workers with a higher level of education reduce their risks.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 483, 2020

The Future of Work in Developing Economies: What can we learn from the South? – Download PDF
by 
Egana del Sol, Pablo

GLO Fellow Pablo Egana del Sol

Author Abstract: In recent years, there has been an escalation of concern revolving around the effect that automation will have on the future of work. This anxiety has fueled the public and academic debate, fearing that soon this technology will displace jobs at a large scale. Numerous studies have begun to investigate automation’s impact on labor markets, although all have focused on industrialized nations, which consist of more service and skilled occupations. Utilizing the World Bank’s STEP Skills Measurement Program Database, we examine automation’s effect on 10 developing countries throughout Latin America, Africa, and Asia. To address the heterogeneity of occupations across the country, we apply a task-based approach and re-calibrate the effect of automation on labor market while analyzing the task structure across countries. Modeling off previous studies, we created an expectation-maximization algorithm to predict the percentage of tasks that are likely to be automated. Jobs whose task automation output was 70% or higher were then considered to be highly automatable. Our results suggest that these developing countries have higher levels of predicted automation risk. Countries range in their level of highly automatable jobs from the lowest being Yunnan -a Chinese province- with 7.7% to the highest of Ghana with 42.4%. We find that occupations containing relatively more routine tasks are more likely to be automated, while workers with a higher level of education reduce their risks. This is the first paper to estimate automation risk rates for developing nations.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Performance Feedback and Peer Effects. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

What is the impact of performance feedback provision and peer effects on individuals’ performance? A new GLO Discussion Paper reviews the mechanisms behind peer effects which include conformism, social pressure, rivalry, social learning and distributional preferences, depending on the presence of payoff externalities or technological and organizational externalities.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 482, 2020

Performance Feedback and Peer Effects – Download PDF
by 
Villeval, Marie Claire

GLO Fellow Marie Claire Villeval

Author Abstract: This paper reviews studies conducted in naturally-occurring work environments or in the laboratory on the impact of performance feedback provision and peer effects on individuals’ performance. First, it discusses to which extent feedback on absolute performance affects individuals’ effort for cognitive or motivational reasons, and how evaluations can be distorted strategically. Second, this paper highlights the positive and negative effects of feedback on relative performance and rank on individuals’ productivity and persistence, but also on the occurrence of anti-social behavior. Relative feedback stimulates effort by informing on the marginal return or the marginal cost of effort, and by activating behavioral forces even in the absence of monetary incentives. These behavioral mechanisms relate to self-esteem, status concerns, competitive preferences and social learning. Relative feedback sometimes discourages or distorts effort, notably if people collude or are disappointment averse. In addition to incentive schemes and social preferences, the management of self-confidence affects the way relative feedback impacts productivity. Third, the paper addresses the question of the identification of peer effects on employees’ performance, their size, their direction and their heterogeneity along the hierarchy. The mechanisms behind peer effects include conformism, social pressure, rivalry, social learning and distributional preferences, depending on the presence of payoff externalities or technological and organizational externalities.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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The role of time investments for explaining ethnicity differentials in academic achievements. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants is mainly attributable to more time investments in educational activities or favorable initial cognitive abilities and not to socio-demographics or parenting styles.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 481, 2020

Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments – Download PDF
by 
Nguyen, Ha Trong & Connelly, Luke B. & Le, Huong Thu & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R.

GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen & Luke Connelly

Author Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact on the transition to work of a policy reform in Belgium that restricted the access to a specific unemployment insurance scheme for young labor market entrants. This scheme entitles youths with no or little labor market experience to unemployment benefits after a waiting period of one year. As of 2015, the Belgian government unexpectedly scrapped benefit eligibility for youths who start the waiting period at the age of 24 or older. The reform implied a change from an inclining to a flat rate (zero-level) benefit profile. We use a difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal impact of this reform on fresh university graduates. Our main finding is that this reform only increases the transition to very short-lived jobs.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Conversionary Protestants do not cause democracy. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds no significant relationship between Protestant missions and the development of democracy.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 480, 2020

Conversionary Protestants do not cause democracy – Download PDF
by
Nikolova, Elena & Polansky, Jakub

GLO Fellow Elena Nikolova

Author Abstract: In “The Missionary Roots of Liberal Democracy”, Robert D. Woodberry (2012) claims that the emergence of stable democracies around the world was influenced by conversionary Protestantism. While Woodberry’s historical analysis is exhaustive, the accompanying empirical evidence suffers from severe inconsistencies. We replicate Woodberry’s analysis using 26 alternative democracy measures and extend the time period over which the democracy measures are averaged. These two simple modifications lead to the breakdown of Woodberry’s results. We find no significant relationship between Protestant missions and the development of democracy, which raises concerns about the robustness and broader applicability of Woodberry’s findings. We discuss some alternative explanations for Woodberry’s results which we hope can inform future research on this topic.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Incentive Pay and Firm Productivity in China. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper for China finds that labor scarcity encourages firms to adopt more incentive pay which leads to higher firm productivity and reduces misallocation of labor.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 479, 2020

Incentive Pay and Firm Productivity: Evidence from China – Download PDF
by
Jin, Zhangfeng & Pan, Shiyuan

GLO Fellow Zhangfeng Jin

Author Abstract: This study examines the causes and consequences of incentive pay adoption among Chinese manufacturing firms. First, we find that a higher degree of labor scarcity encourages firms to adopt more incentive pay. Second, using an instrumental variables approach, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the intensity of incentive pay results in 38% higher firm productivity. Third, the average productivity differences between SOEs and non-SOEs decrease by about 65% after controlling differences in incentive pay adoption. Therefore, facilitating incentive pay adoption among firms with better labor endowments (e.g. SOEs) increases productivity while reduces resource misallocation in developing countries.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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February 2020: Books or Babies – GLO Discussion Paper of the Month and all DPs freely accessible

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of February  finds that raising the school leaving age can be effective in reducing the incidence of teenage pregnancy among socially excluded women, even if it does not affect the general population. An important policy implication is the potentially heterogeneous impact of educational interventions across different ethnic groups.   

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: February

GLO Discussion Paper No. 474, 2020

Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women – Download PDF
by 
Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna & Scharle, Ágota  

GLO Fellow  Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna

Author Abstract:   This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4-26.0% and delayed motherhood by two years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions and still births, and contains information on the time of conception precise to the week. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.

GLO Discussion Papers of February 2020

479 Incentive Pay and Firm Productivity: Evidence from China – Download PDF
by 
Jin, Zhangfeng & Pan, Shiyuan

478 Switching from an inclining to a zero-level unemployment benefit profile: Good for work incentives? – Download PDF
by 
Cockx, Bart & Declercq, Koen & Dejemeppe, Muriel & Inga, Leda & Van der Linden, Bruno

477 Resilience Strategies for Mismatched Workers: Microeconomic Evidence from Egypt – Download PDF
by 
Syed Zwick, Hélène

476 Sex Ratio and Global Sodomy Law Reform in the Post-WWII Era – Download PDF
by 
Chang, Simon

475 The Impact of Air Pollution on Attributable Risks and Economic Costs of Hospitalization for Mental Disorders – Download PDF
by 
Wu, Ziting & Chen, Xi & Li, Guoxing & Tian, Lin & Wang, Zhan & Xiong, Xiuqin & Yang, Chuan & Zhou, Zijun & Pan, Xiaochuan

474 Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women – Download PDF
by 
Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna & Scharle, Ágota

473 Teacher Labor Markets in Developing Countries – Download PDF
by 
Crawfurd, Lee & Pugatch, Todd

472 Women’s optimism, the gender happiness equaliser: a case of South Africa – Download PDF
by 
Greyling, Talita & Fisher, Bianca

471 Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact – Download PDF
by 
Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco

470 Ethnic Attrition, Assimilation, and the Measured Health Outcomes of Mexican Americans – Download PDF
by  
Antman, Francisca M. & Duncan, Brian & Trejo, Stephen J.

469 Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan – Download PDF
by  
Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard

468 Which Model for Poverty Predictions? – Download PDF
by 
Verme, Paolo

467 Affirmative Action and Intersectionality at the Top: Evidence from South Africa  Download PDF
by 
Klasen, Stephan & Minasyan, Anna

466 Innovation Strategies and Productivity Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Pakistan – Download PDF
by 
Wadho, Waqar & Chaudhry, Azam

465 Educational mismatches, technological change and unemployment: evidence from secondary and tertiary educated workers –  Download PDF
by 
Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio

464 Reducing the income tax burden for households with children: An assessment of the child tax credit reform in Austria –  Download PDF
by 
Christl, Michael & De Poli, Silvia & Varga, Janos

463 The Retirement Migration Puzzle in China –  Download PDF
by 
Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Prettner, Klaus

462 Rising longevity, increasing the retirement age, and the consequences for knowledge-based long-run growth –  Download PDF
by 
Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus

461 Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2017 –  Download PDF
by 
Bajo-Rubio, Oscar

460 Weathering the storm: Weather shocks and international migrants from the Philippines –  Download PDF
by 
Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A.

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

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Switching from an inclining to a zero-level unemployment benefit profile: Good for work incentives? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper evaluates the impact of a policy reform in Belgium on the transition to work of young labor market entrants with little experiences: Only short-term effects.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 478, 2020

Switching from an inclining to a zero-level unemployment benefit profile: Good for work incentives? – Download PDF
by
Cockx, Bart & Declercq, Koen & Dejemeppe, Muriel & Inga, Leda & Van der Linden, Bruno

GLO Fellow Muriel Dejemeppe

Author Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact on the transition to work of a policy reform in Belgium that restricted the access to a specific unemployment insurance scheme for young labor market entrants. This scheme entitles youths with no or little labor market experience to unemployment benefits after a waiting period of one year. As of 2015, the Belgian government unexpectedly scrapped benefit eligibility for youths who start the waiting period at the age of 24 or older. The reform implied a change from an inclining to a flat rate (zero-level) benefit profile. We use a difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal impact of this reform on fresh university graduates. Our main finding is that this reform only increases the transition to very short-lived jobs.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Resilience Strategies for Mismatched Workers. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper attempts to identify and discuss the on-the-job resilience strategies of mismatched workers in Egypt.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 477, 2020

Resilience Strategies for Mismatched Workers: Microeconomic Evidence from Egypt – Download PDF
by Syed Zwick, Hélène

GLO Fellow Hélène Syed Zwick

Author Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss the on-the-job resilience strategies of mismatched workers. We empirically focus on Egyptian workers. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study relies on a primary micro-data collection based on design and implementation of a self-administered questionnaire survey and on the conduction of a series of semi-structured interviews. Findings – The results are fourfold: first, the combination of over-qualification and under-skilling is the most frequent in our sample; second, resilience strategies adopted by over-skilled workers mainly depend on mobility and entry to entrepreneurship; third, under-skilled workers do not enter entrepreneurship, but tend to rely on informal on-the-job learning and training opportunities. Fourth, religion and spirituality play a transversal role to cope with adversity for all of our interviewed workers. Originality/value – This study is unique as it draws our attention on factors of resilience for mismatched workers in a developing country, Egypt.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Sex Ratio and Global Sodomy Law Reform in the Post-WWII Era. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the role of the population sex ratio, the ratio of men to women, in global sodomy law reform in the post-WWII era. A high sex ratio makes sodomy law less likely to be repealed.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 476, 2020

Sex Ratio and Global Sodomy Law Reform in the Post-WWII Era – Download PDF
by
Chang, Simon

GLO Fellow Simon Chang

Author Abstract: This paper studies the role of population sex ratio, i.e. ratio of men to women, in the global wave of sodomy law reform in the post-WWII era. Using a global survey, this paper first finds that men are more homophobic than women and such pattern has persisted across countries and time. With a newly constructed panel data of 183 countries, this paper then finds that high sex ratio causally makes sodomy law less likely to be repealed. The result is robust to numerous checks, including using temperature as an instrumental variable for sex ratio.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Names and behavior in a war. Interview with the authors of GLO Discussion Paper No. 450 on research about conflict and nationalism: Paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics.

In GLO Discussion Paper No. 450, GLO Fellows Stepan Jurajda and Dejan Kovač have recently provided research evidence revealing that given first names of leaders from World War II can predict behavior in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and beyond in society including voting. It provides hard evidence for intergenerational transmission of nationalism. This research work has found already much interest in the scientific community and beyond. It was reviewed by anonymous referees of the Journal of Population Economics and finally accepted for a forthcoming publication in a 2020 journal issue. Below, the authors are interviewed about the background and context of this research.

Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and Behavior in a War, GLO Discussion Paper 450, 2020. Forthcoming Journal of Population Economics.

Interview

GLO: Scientists across various disciplines have found in recent studies that names of individuals reflect important information about norms, preferences and behavior. What is your innovative approach?

Stepan Jurajda: Our analysis implies that having a ‘nationalist’ first name, one that is synonymous with previous war leader(s), predicts costly patriotic behavior in a current war, presumably due to values transmitted from parents. In our analysis, name choices thus act as an indirect proxy for a strong form of nationalism — the willingness to fight and die in a war for national independence.

Dejan Kovač: Such values are in principle difficult to elicit in surveys, which, together with the war context, sets our analysis apart from other research based on names.

GLO: Other researchers show that history, culture and personal experiences long time ago have a strong impact on current behavior. How does this contribute to our understanding of challenging issues of our time?

Dejan Kovač: Our study of the active engagement in the delivery of an extremely costly public good suggests that the living memory of a previous war allows nations to deal with the collective action problem of participation in a current war.

Stepan Jurajda: We also provide evidence on the nature of inter-generational transmission of political values, an issue that is receiving more and more attention in recent research.

GLO: How did you come to this topic of research, names and behavior in a war?

Dejan Kovač: We were aware of previous research on how names affect individual outcomes on the labor market and in many other settings, and we were wondering whether this strategy can help us understand the massive volunteering for the 1991-1995 Croatian War of Independence. After realizing that indeed it can, we also studied how the values we approximate using name choices relate to current political values in the country.

GLO: What can the world learn from your study?

Stepan Jurajda: Our measurement approach for values that are difficult to elicit in surveys and for values that affected historical events is applicable in other countries that feature a sharply divided ethnic mix and in settings where leaders’ names are notoriously associated with their political beliefs. Given the widespread availability of birth certificate records, the approach is available in many historical settings and it naturally lends itself to the study of inter-generational transmission of values within families, which can help us understand why the effects that wars have on political values and on in-group cooperative behavior are so long-lived.

GLO: Dejan, the paper raised a lot of controversy during your recent campaign for President, why?

Dejan Kovač: Unfortunately, in Croatia we have not yet dealt with many important historical debates and there is still a great division today in the society related to the WWII Croatian history. In fact, one of the reasons of my candidacy was to promote not only civic freedoms, but also scientific freedoms to explore “untested” hypotheses. I would say the paper was used to misinform the general public in order to discredit my political candidacy. The paper does not claim that the values related to the names we study are the same as the values of the WWII leadership of Croatia; we simply have a proxy for nationalistic/patriotic values as of 1991-1995 that allows us to study several important questions. The attacks did not relate to the methodology and made little scientific sense; they were purely political and came from individuals who are politically active, either on the far right or the far left part of the political spectrum. Since some of my other research is on political networks and corruption, I guess I should not be surprised to be attacked through misrepresentation of my work. My agenda is purely scientific and I am a firm believer in a well functioning democracy, where we have institutions, which battle corruption. That being said – the research as well as my political activism mission goes on!
(Note: See also the recent GLO interview with Dejan Kovač about his Presidential Race in Croatia.)

***
With Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

About the authors

Stepan Jurajda: CERGE-EI; Professor at Charles University Prague and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.
Dejan Kovač: Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs and Economics Department at Princeton University.

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The Impact of Air Pollution on Attributable Risks and Economic Costs of Hospitalization for Mental Disorders. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that air pollution accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of mental disorders in China.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 475, 2020

The Impact of Air Pollution on Attributable Risks and Economic Costs of Hospitalization for Mental Disorders – Download PDF
by
Wu, Ziting & Chen, Xi & Li, Guoxing & Tian, Lin & Wang, Zhan & Xiong, Xiuqin & Yang, Chuan & Zhou, Zijun & Pan, Xiaochuan

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Author Abstract: This study aims to fill the gap in our understanding about exposure to particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and attributable risks and economic costs of mental disorders (MDs). We identify the relationship between PM2.5 and risk of hospital admissions (HAs) for MDs in Beijing and measure the attributable risk and economic cost. We apply a generalized additive model (GAM) with controls for time trend, meteorological conditions, holidays and day of the week. Stratified analyses are performed by age, gender and season. We further estimate health and economic burden of HAs for MDs attributable to PM2.5. A total of 17,252 HAs for MDs are collected. We show that PM2.5 accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of MDs. Specifically, a 10 μg/m3 daily increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 3.55% increase in the risk of HAs for MDs, and the effect is more pronounced for older males in colder weather. According to the WHO’s air quality guidelines, 15.12 percent of HAs and 16.19 percent of related medical expenses for MDs are respectively attributable to PM2.5.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on teenage fertility of Roma women in Hungary. Schooling decreases fertility, but not in summer and Christmas breaks suggesting incapacitation and not the education channel is dominant.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 474, 2020

Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women – Download PDF
by
Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna & Scharle, Ágota

GLO Fellow Anna Adamecz-Völgyi

Author Abstract: This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4-26.0% and delayed motherhood by two years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions and still births, and contains information on the time of conception precise to the week. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Teacher Labor Markets in Developing Countries: A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 473, 2020

Teacher Labor Markets in Developing Countries – Download PDF
by
Crawfurd, Lee & Pugatch, Todd

GLO Fellow Todd Pugatch

Author Abstract: The types of workers recruited into teaching and their allocation across classrooms can greatly influence a country’s stock of human capital. This paper considers how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries. Schools are a major source of employment in developing countries, particularly for women and professionals. Teacher compensation is also a large share of public budgets. Teacher labor markets in developing countries are likely to grow further as teacher quality becomes a greater focus of education policy, including under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Theoretical approaches to teacher labor markets have emphasized the role of non-market institutions, such as government and unions, and other frictions in teacher employment and wages. The evidence supports the existence and importance of such frictions in how teacher labor markets function. In many countries, large gaps in pay and quality exist between teachers and other professionals; teachers in public and private schools; teachers on permanent and temporary contracts; and teachers in urban and rural areas. Teacher supply increases with wages, though teacher quality does not necessarily increase. However, most evidence comes from studies of short-term effects among existing teachers. Evidence on effects in the long-term, on the supply of new teachers, or on changes in non-pecuniary compensation is scarcer.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Women’s optimism, the gender happiness equaliser: A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds wellbeing gender gaps in South Africa are explained mainly by gender differences in endowments.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 472, 2020

Women’s optimism, the gender happiness equaliser: a case of South Africa – Download PDF
by
Greyling, Talita & Fisher, Bianca

GLO Fellow Talita Greyling

Author Abstract: This paper investigates whether there is co-movement in subjective wellbeing (swb) gender gaps and objective wellbeing (owb) gender gaps over time and whether swb gender gaps are caused by gender differences in endowments or by the different ways men and women value the pre-mentioned. This is important, as global goals and national policy focus on the improvement of owb gender equality, ignoring the importance of swb gender equality. We use the NIDS dataset, comparing 2008 and 2017 data, and employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method in the analysis. We find i) the trends in owband swb gender gaps are unrelated and ii) the swb gender gaps are explained mainly by gender differences in endowments, but in 2017, due to women’s “optimism”, notwithstanding their lower levels of endowments, the swb between genders was equalised. These results indicate the need for a swb gender equality policy.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact. New GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 471, 2020

Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact – Download PDF
by
Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco

GLO Fellows Fabio Montobbio, Maria Enrica Virgillito & Marco Vivarelli

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of explicit labour-saving heuristics within robotic patents. It analyses innovative actors engaged in robotic technology and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies the technological fields particularly exposed to labour-saving innovations. It exploits advanced natural language processing and probabilistic topic modelling techniques on the universe of patent applications at the USPTO between 2009 and 2018, matched with ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) firm-level dataset. The results show that labour-saving patent holders comprise not only robots producers, but also adopters. Consequently, labour-saving robotic patents appear along the entire supply chain. The paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Ethnic Attrition, Assimilation, and the Measured Health Outcomes of Mexican Americans: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for the USA that ethnic attrition biases conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 470, 2020

Ethnic Attrition, Assimilation, and the Measured Health Outcomes of Mexican Americans – Download PDF
by 
Antman, Francisca M., & Duncan, Brian & Trejo, Stephen J.

GLO Fellow Francisca Antman

Author Abstract: The literature on immigrant assimilation and intergenerational progress has sometimes reached surprising conclusions, such as the puzzle of immigrant advantage which finds that Hispanic immigrants sometimes have better health than U.S.-born Hispanics. While numerous studies have attempted to explain these patterns, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic selfidentification to identify immigrants’ descendants. This can lead to bias due to “ethnic attrition,” which occurs whenever a U.S.-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. In this paper, we exploit information on parents’ and grandparents’ place of birth to show that Mexican ethnic attrition, operating through intermarriage, is sizable and selective on health, making subsequent generations of Mexican immigrants appear less healthy than they actually are. Consequently, conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants have been significantly overstated.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices in Kazakhstan: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that an oil price boom may trigger dissatisfaction with one’s income, and that this dissatisfaction is independent of the effect of the boom on real economic conditions. Using data from Kazakhstan, it seems that the oil price boom creates a gap between people’s expectations of the benefits from the boom and the observed economic conditions.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 469, 2020

Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan – Download PDF
by 
Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard

GLO Fellow Victoire Girard

Author Abstract: We document that an oil price boom triggers dissatisfaction with one’s income, and that this dissatisfaction is independent of the effect of the boom on real economic conditions. Unique data from Kazakhstan allows us to exploit time, sectoral and spatial variation to identify the impact of the recent oil boom on reported satisfaction with income. Oil related households { whose heads are employed in the private sector of the oil rich districts { report a decrease in satisfaction with their income during the boom compared to other households (whose heads work in other sectors and/or districts). The estimated drop in satisfaction is statistically and economically significant: a 20% increase in the price of oil decreases satisfaction with income by 1/3 of a standard deviation. We discuss different interpretations of this drop in satisfaction. The only interpretation consistent with our results is that an oil price boom creates a gap between people’s expectations of the benefits from the boom and the observed economic conditions. Our results call for devoting more attention to the dynamic of satisfaction, not only during resource busts, but also during resource booms.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Which Model for Poverty Predictions? New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 468, 2020

Which Model for Poverty Predictions? – Download PDF
by
Verme, Paolo

GLO Fellow Paolo Verme

Author Abstract: OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty using alternative objective functions and stochastic dominance analysis based on coverage curves. It finds that the choice of an optimal model largely depends on the distribution of incomes and the poverty line. Comparing the performance of different econometric and machine learning models is therefore an important step in the process of optimizing poverty predictions and targeting ratios.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Affirmative Action and Intersectionality in South Africa: New GLO Discussion Paper

Do gender-based board quotas lead to a higher share of women in top management positions? A new GLO Discussion Paper finds supporting evidence that affirmative action has induced sizable increases in South Africa.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 467, 2020

Affirmative Action and Intersectionality at the Top: Evidence from South Africa – Download PDF
by
Klasen, Stephan & Minasyan, Anna

GLO Fellow Anna Minasyan

Author Abstract: Gender-based board quotas do not always lead to higher share of women in top management positions. We study the consequences of an affirmative action policy that stipulates gender- and race-based targets in top management positions, beyond boards. We focus on the representation of intersectional group identities, such as race and gender, at the top. We find sizable increase in the likelihood of Black women employment in top positions in the post-policy period relative to Black men, White women and White men in South Africa. We extend our analysis and estimate policy spillovers for years of schooling, earnings gaps and self-employment.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Innovation Strategies and Productivity Growth in Pakistan: New GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of product, process, and organizational innovations on firm labor productivity in Pakistan.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 466, 2020

Innovation Strategies and Productivity Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Pakistan – Download PDF
by
Wadho, Waqar & Chaudhry, Azam

GLO Fellow Waqar Wadho

Author Abstract: We examine the determinants of product, process, and organizational innovation, and their impact on firm labor productivity using data from a unique innovation survey of firms in Pakistan. We find significant heterogeneity in the impact of different innovations on labor productivity: Organizational innovation has the largest effect followed by process innovation. But unlike much of the literature, we found a negative impact of product innovation suggesting a disruption effect of new products; however, this is mitigated if new products are paired with process or organizational innovations. We find a strong impact of engaging in knowledge creation on product and process innovation. We found that external knowledge networks and innovation cooperation play no significant role in firms’ decision to perform R&D and its intensity, though vertical linkages with suppliers (clients) promote product (process) innovations. Foreign competition has a negative effect on product innovation and a positive effect on organizational innovation.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Educational mismatches, technological change and unemployment: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Italian data that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 465, 2020

Educational mismatches, technological change and unemployment: evidence from secondary and tertiary educated workers –  Download PDF
by
Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellows Piero Esposito & Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: In this article, we investigate the role of several types of educational mismatch in explaining labour market transitions of workers with secondary and higher education. We focus on transitions from employment to unemployment and on job changes, to assess whether mismatch is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. In the first case, as suggested by matching models, mismatch will be eliminated through job-to-job transitions. In the second case, it might be permanent and caused by employment discontinuity and deskilling processes. By using information from the Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) and the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (PLUS), we calculate three measures of vertical mismatch. This allows comparing the outcomes from self-reported and revealed match measures in order to assess the robustness of the results. In addition, we use a measure of horizontal mismatch and evaluated the effect of Routine Bias Technical change (RBTC) in terms of unemployment risk, through a Routine Task Index (RTI) calculated on Italian data. Results indicate that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment. More specifically, among workers with higher education, the risk is due to mismatches in the field of studies whereas for secondary educated workers, over-education is the main cause of unemployment risk. The effect of the RTI is often not significant. This adds evidence to the problem of skill gap in Italy, as educational choices are not aligned to market needs. In this respect, both demand side and supply side policies are needed to allow firms to better use this human capital.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Reducing the income tax burden for households with children; the child tax credit reform in Austria: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the child tax credit reform in Austria reduces inequality, lowers the poverty rate in general, but by definition only for households with children. 

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 464, 2020

Reducing the income tax burden for households with children: An assessment of the child tax credit reform in Austria –  Download PDF
by
Christl, Michael & De Poli, Silvia & Varga, Janos

GLO Fellow Michael Christl

Author Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2019, not only on micro, but also on macro level by using a dynamic scoring methodology. First, we assess the fiscal and distributional impact of this reform using the microsimulation model EUROMOD. Second, we estimate labour supply impacts of the reform based on a structural discrete choice framework. Third, we evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of the reform, by calibrating and shocking QUEST, the DSGE model of the European Commission, with the micro-based results for the implicit tax rate, the non-participation and the labour supply elasticities. We show that the child tax credit reform in Austria reduces inequality, lowers the poverty rate in general, but by definition only for households with children. Overall the reform has a positive impact on labour supply, both on the extensive and on the intensive margin, especially for women. On the macro-level (and in the long-run), our model suggests a positive impact on employment. Additionally, we find that parts of the tax decrease can be potentially captured by the employer, meaning that gross wages would fall slightly. However, we find small but positive effects on GDP, investment and consumption, although the long-run macroeconomic effects depend crucially on how the government compensates the missing tax revenues after the reform. Accounting for these feedback effects at the micro level with a new methodology, we show that the second round effects are important to take into account, because they provide insights into the medium-term distributional impact of the reform.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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GLO Discussion Paper of the Month January 2020: Enterprising women in Southern Africa: When does land ownership matter?

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of January shows that promoting access to credit and improving the property rights framework are vital for removing barriers to productive female entrepreneurship at a larger scale in countries such as  Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe. The paper makes a significant contribution to policy debates, suggesting  that policy interventions aimed at removing obstacles to female land tenure and ownership could greatly benefit Southern African countries.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: January

GLO Discussion Paper No.  457, 2020

457 Enterprising women in Southern Africa: When does land ownership matter? –  Download PDF
by 
Brixiová, Zuzana & Kangoye, Thierry & Tregenna, Fiona  

GLO Fellow  Zuzana Brixiová

Author Abstract:   Limited access to finance is one of the major barriers for women entrepreneurs in Africa. This paper presents a model of start-ups in which firms’ sales and profits depend on their productivity and access to credit. However, due to the lack of collateral assets such as land, female entrepreneurs have more constrained access to credit than do men. Testing the model on data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, we find land ownership to be important for female entrepreneurial performance in terms of sales levels. This finding suggests that the small Southern African economies would benefit from removing obstacles to women’s land tenure and enabling financial institutions to lend against movable collateral. While land ownership is linked with higher sales levels, it seems less critical for sales growth and innovation where access to short term loans for working capital seems to be key.

GLO Discussion Papers of January 2020

459 One billion euro program for early childcare services in Italy –  Download PDF
by 
Giorgetti, Isabella & Picchio, Matteo

458 Law enforcement, social control and organized crime. Evidence from local government dismissals in Italy –  Download PDF
by 
Cingano, Federico & Tonello, Marco

457 Enterprising women in Southern Africa: When does land ownership matter? –  Download PDF
by 
Brixiová, Zuzana & Kangoye, Thierry & Tregenna, Fiona

456 Agricultural Transformation and Farmers’ Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda –  Download PDF
by 
Bonan, Jacopo & Kazianga, Harounan & Mendola, Mariapia

455 Reforms and Employment in The Egyptian Labor Market: Evolution by Age From 1988 to 2006 –  Download PDF
by 
Selwaness, Irene

454 Early Life Environments and Frailty in Old Age among Chinese Older Adults –  Download PDF
by 
Li, Xaxi & Xue, Qian-Li & Odden, Michelle C. & Chen, Xi & Wu, Chenkai

453 Social Security Expansion and Neighborhood Cohesion: Evidence from Community-Living Older Adults in China –  Download PDF
by 
Bradley, Elizabeth & Chen, Xi & Tang, Gaojie

452 Prenatal Sunshine Exposure and Birth Outcomes in China –  Download PDF
by 
Zhang, Xin & Wang, Yixuan & Chen, Xi & Zhang, Xun

451 Health Inequality among Chinese Older Adults: The Role of Childhood Circumstances –  Download PDF
by 
Yan, Binjian & Chen, Xi & Gill, Thomas M.

450 Names and Behavior in a War –  Download PDF
by 
Jurajda, Štěpán & Kovač, Dejan

449 Innovation and Self-Employment –  Download PDF
by 
Ciarli, Tommaso & Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Savona, Maria

448 Rent sharing in China: Magnitude, heterogeneity and drivers –  Download PDF
by 
Duan, Wenjing & Martins, Pedro S.

447 Spending in social services in China: A multi-country analysis –  Download PDF
by 
Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Gómez‐Plana, Antonio G.

446 Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence –  Download PDF
by 
Constant, Amelie F.

445 It’s the way people move! Labour migration as an adjustment device in Russia –  Download PDF
by 
Pastore, Francesco & Semerikova, Elena

444 Legal History, Institutions and Banking System Development in Africa –  Download PDF
by 
Mutarindwa, Samuel & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas

443 Robots, Reshoring, and the Lot of Low-Skilled Workers –  Download PDF
by 
Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger

442 Competitive strategies, heterogeneous demand sources and firms’ growth trajectories –  Download PDF
by 
Caravella, Serenella & Crespi, Francesco & Guarascio, Dario & Tubiana, Matteo

441 Livelihood Diversification Strategies: Resisting Vulnerability in Egypt –  Download PDF
by 
Helmy, Imane

440 Social Safety Nets in Tunisia: Do Benefits Reach the Poor and Vulnerable Households at the Regional Level? –  Download PDF
by 
Nasri, Khaled

439 Agricultural credits and agricultural productivity: Cross-country evidence –  Download PDF
by 
Seven, Unal & Tumen, Semih

GLO DP Team
Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University).
Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

The Retirement Migration Puzzle in China: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that retirement increases the probability of migration strongly.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 463, 2020

The Retirement Migration Puzzle in China –  Download PDF
by
Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Prettner, Klaus

GLO Fellows Klaus Prettner & Zhangfeng Jin

Author Abstract: We examine whether and how retirement affects migration decisions in China. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design approach combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 adults aged between 40 and 75, we find that retirement increases the probability of migration by 12.9 percentage points. Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to inter-temporal substitution (delayed migration). Retirement-induced migrants are lower-educated and have restricted access to social security. Household-level migration decisions can reconcile different migration responses across gender. Retirees migrate for risk sharing and family protection mechnisms, reducing market production of their families in the receiving households.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Rising longevity, increasing the retirement age, and the consequences for knowledge-based long-run growth: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the long-run growth effects of rising longevity and an increasing retirement age.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 462, 2020

Rising longevity, increasing the retirement age, and the consequences for knowledge-based long-run growth –  Download PDF
by
Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: We assess the long-run growth effects of rising longevity and increasing the retirement age when growth is driven by purposeful research and development. In contrast to economies in which growth depends on learning-by-doing spillovers, raising the retirement age fosters economic growth. How economic growth changes in response to rising life expectancy depends on the retirement response. Employing numerical analysis we find that the requirement for experiencing a growth stimulus from rising longevity is fulfilled for the United States, nearly met for the average OECD economy, but missed by the EU and by Japan.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Exports and long-run growth in Spain: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that the impact of exports on economic growth has been small but positive in 1850-2017 Spain.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 461, 2020

Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2017 –  Download PDF
by
Bajo-Rubio, Oscar

GLO Fellow Oscar Bajo-Rubio

Author Abstract: We analyse in this paper the relationship between international trade and economic growth from the point of view of one of the most traditional hypotheses within this field, namely, the export-led growth hypothesis, for the case of Spain in a long-term perspective of almost 170 years. Exports seem to have played a positive, though modest, role in promoting economic growth in the Spanish economy over the whole period, mostly due to the higher productivity associated with the export sector. The contribution of exports to growth, however, seems to have been stronger in the final years of the 19th century, unlike the rest of the period, where it proved to be very small.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Weather shocks and international migration from the Philippines: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals and investigates the channels of international migration from the Philippines caused by weather shocks.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 460, 2020

Weathering the storm: Weather shocks and international migrants from the Philippines –  Download PDF
by
Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A.

GLO Fellow Marjorie Pajaron

Author Abstract: The growing literature on environmental migration presents conflicting results. While some find that natural disasters induce international migration, others discover a dampening effect. We aim to reconcile these differences by using a comprehensive list of weather shocks from the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. We constructed a longitudinal provincial dataset (2005–2015) from an assemblage of administrative and survey datasets and tested linear, quadratic, and lagged models. Our fixed-effects results are consistent with both strands in the literature with caveats. First, Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warning signal but are more likely to stay with a more damaging storm warning signal. Second, differential effects of weather shocks on international migration contingent on agriculture exists. Third, non-environmental factors such as economic (unemployment rate) and infrastructure (number of high schools) also push Filipinos abroad.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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One billion for early childcare in Italy: New GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effectiveness of a government program to strengthen the public supply of early childhood educational services in Italy.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 459, 2020

One billion euro program for early childcare services in Italy –  Download PDF
by
Giorgetti, Isabella & Picchio, Matteo

GLO Fellow Isabella Giorgetti & Matteo Picchio

Author Abstract: In 2007 the Italian central government started a program by transferring funds to regional governments to develop both private and public early childcare services. Exploiting the different timing of program implementation across regions, we evaluate its effectiveness in boosting the public supply of early childhood educational services. We find that the ratio between the available slots in public early childhood education and the population of those aged 0-2 increased by 17.2% three years after the start of the program, with respect to the pre-program level. The program impact was however limited in the South and mostly driven by the Center-North.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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