A new GLO Discussion Paper defends the quality of key available coronavirus data: The cross-country correlation between log of tests and log of reported cases (per capita) and the correlation between log of reported cases and log of reported deaths (per capita) are high. It suggests that currently the infection rate in no country is higher than 10% and the fatality rate is at least 0.4%.

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GLO Discussion Paper No. 516, 2020

Confronting COVID-19 Myths: Morbidity and Mortality – Download PDF
by Jelnov, Pavel

GLO Fellow Pavel Jelnov

Author Abstract: COVID-19 mystery feeds the belief that the reported morbidity rates are not related to the true ones and that large parts of the population are already infected, the virus is not very dangerous, and the lockdown is unnecessary. Yet one observes two very strong correlations that disprove this belief. The cross-country correlation between log of tests and log of reported cases (per capita) is 0.87 and the correlation between log of reported cases and log of reported deaths (per capita) is 0.89. Using these correlations, I suggest that the infection rate in no country is higher than 10%. Furthermore, I suggest that the mortality from COVID-19 is at least 0.4%.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

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