Category Archives: Post-20

Life Dissatisfaction and Anxiety in the COVID-19 Pandemic. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public in response to the coronavirus crisis increases dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increases feelings of anxiety.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 544, 2020

Life Dissatisfaction and Anxiety in COVID-19 pandemic Download PDF
by
de Pedraza, Pablo & Guzi, Martin & Tijdens, Kea

GLO Fellows Pablo de Pedraza, Martin Guzi & Kea Tijdens

Author Abstract: The rising numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, prolonged lockdowns, substantial restrictions on public life and an economic downturn negatively affect personal well-being. In this paper, we explore COVID- 19-related determinants of life dissatisfaction and feelings of anxiety using data collected from March 23 to April 30 2020 in 25 advanced and developing countries from four continents. We find that persons with better general health, with a paid job, living with a partner, daily exercising and those avoiding loneliness report less dissatisfaction and less anxiety. The presence of children and a pet in the household has no effect. Women report anxiety feelings more often than men. Older people report lower dissatisfaction and anxiety, remarkable given that the older population is among the most vulnerable in the current pandemic. Jobrelated changes due to COVID-19 such as income reduction and increase or decrease of workload are associated with more dissatisfaction and more anxiety. In reaction to the pandemic governments have adopted a range of measures. We show that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public increase dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increase feelings of anxiety. We find that a growing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increases dissatisfaction and anxiety but that this effect levels off with a higher number of cases. Our findings support targeted government policies to preserve economic security, and increase stability of employment.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Understanding the rising trend in female labor force participation. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that the rising trend in female labor force participation in Australia largely depends on changes in real wages, population composition changes, and changes in labor supply preference parameters.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 543, 2020

Understanding the rising trend in female labour force participation Download PDF
by
Hérault, Nicolas & Kalb, Guyonne

GLO Fellow Nicolas Herault

Author Abstract: Female labor force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labor force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labor supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labor force participation.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

The short-term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Occupation Tasks and Mental Health in Canada. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes in Canada, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. Reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 542, 2020

The short-term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Occupation Tasks and Mental Health in Canada – Download PDF
by
Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Mikola, Derek & Wright, Taylor

GLO Fellows Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour mar- ket outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Yale Economist and GLO Fellow T. Paul Schultz gets 80. He has been an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.

T. Paul Schultz is the Malcolm K Brachman Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University. With a BA (1961) from Swarthmore College and a PhD (1966) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he spent most of his academic life at Yale University (since 1974).

He is one of the most outstanding population and development economists of our time. His empirical work has had a huge impact on the profession, in particular he helped to establish economic demography. His research has covered fertility and family planning in developing countries and the fertility transition, household models dealing with health and mortality issues, inequality, migration and gender.

At Yale University, he directed the Economic Growth Center from 1983 – 1996.

T. Paul Schultz is a GLO Fellow since the beginning.

He was a keynote speaker at Yale University on May 11-13, 2018 for the second biennial conference of the China Health Policy and Management Society (CHPAMS), focusing on advances in health policy and health care in China and the United States, an event which was supported by the GLO and organized by GLO Cluster Lead Xi Chen.

For a decade (1991 – 2001), he acted as an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and (since 2002) still provides his advice and support as an Associate Editor of this journal.

On May 24, 2020, T. Paul Schultz is celebrating his 80th birthday; the GLO and the Journal of Population Economics express their respect for his immense lifelong achievements and their huge gratitude for the tremendous support received.

Congratulations and best wishes for a healthy, enjoyable and productive future!

T. Paul Schultz with Xi Chen (left)

Featured image: Photo by Andrew Itaga on Unsplash

Ends;

All that glitters is not gold. Effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the impact of Covid-19 on working from home and the consequences in Italy: working from home tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 541, 2020

All that glitters is not gold. Effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19 Download PDF
by
Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: The recent global COVID-19 pandemic forced most of governments in developed countries to introduce severe measures limiting people mobility freedom in order to contain the infection spread. Consequently, working from home (WFH) procedures became of great importance for a large part of employees, since they represent the only option to both continue working and keep staying home. Based on influence function regression methods, our paper explores the role of WFH attitude across labour income distribution in Italy. Results show that increasing WFH attitudes of occupations would lead to a rise of wage inequality among Italian employees. The opportunity of WFH tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Does Immigration Decrease Far-Right Popularity? Evidence from Finnish Municipalities in a new GLO Discussion Paper by Jakub Lonsky.

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 540, 2020

Does Immigration Decrease Far-Right Popularity? Evidence from Finnish Municipalities – Download PDF
by
Lonsky, Jakub

GLO Fellow Jakub Lonsky

Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for welfarestate channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Estimating Poverty Among Refugee Populations: A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 538, 2020

Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad – Download PDF
by
Beltramo, Theresa & Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Sarr, Ibrahima & Verme, Paolo

GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang & Paolo Verme

Author Abstract: Household consumption surveys do not typically cover refugee populations, and poverty estimates for refugees are rare. This paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad, by combining United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees survey and administrative data. The proposed method offers poverty estimates based on administrative data that fall within a 95 percent margin of poverty estimates based on survey consumption data. This result is robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error term. The method outperforms common targeting methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method currently used by humanitarian organizations in Chad.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Featured image: Photo-by-Ninno JackJr on Unsplash

Ends;

The Influence of Hidden Researcher Decisions in Applied Microeconomics. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper replicates two published articles by seven independent research teams each to document the huge variety of different research strategies chosen and their large differences in outcomes.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 537, 2020

The Influence of Hidden Researcher Decisions in Applied Microeconomics – Download PDF
by
Huntington-Klein, Nick & Arenas, Andreu & Beam, Emily & Bertoni, Marco & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Burli, Pralhad & Chen, Naibin & Greico, Paul & Ekpe, Godwin & Pugatch, Todd & Saavedra, Martin & Stopnitzky, Yaniv

GLO Fellow Todd Pugatch

Author Abstract: Researchers make hundreds of decisions about data collection, preparation, and analysis in their research. We use a many-analysts approach to measure the extent and impact of these decisions. Two published causal empirical results are replicated by seven replicators each. We find large differences in data preparation and analysis decisions, many of which would not likely be reported in a publication. No two replicators reported the same sample size. Statistical significance varied across replications, and for one of the studies the effect’s sign varied as well. The standard deviation of estimates across replications was 3-4 times the typical reported standard error.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Interview with Data Scientist Pablo de Pedraza on data needs for growth and in crises

Like in the financial market crisis, the world struggles again in the #coronavirus crisis with data needs to proper respond to the challenges. Why are data so important, and why are social media data not a simple solution? Some insights from an interview with data scientist Pablo de Pedraza.

Some core messages of the interview:

  • Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. The data flow in a data economy is semicircular – from households and firms to data holders, but not back.
  • If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount.
  • Many agents that could generate valuable knowledge do not have enough access to data.
  • The more citizens are responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus.
  • In a data economy, the race for innovation is a race for data.

A related new research paper of Pablo de Pedraza on the topic is:

The first use of social media data for policy analysis in response to data needs in a huge crisis has been made in the context of the 2009 financial market crisis:

GLO Fellow Pablo de Pedraza (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre) is an Economist interested in the use of web data for economic research. His research interests are web data, life satisfaction and the semicircular flow of the data economy. The scientific output expressed does not imply a European Commission policy position. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.

Middle photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash

Interview

GLO: What is the “data economy” and its “semicircular flow”?

Pablo de Pedraza: The “Data economy” is an economy where data plays a crucial role.
From a consumption perspective, personal data is similar to money; citizens pay online services with their data. From a production point of view, data is like oil; a raw material to produce digital services. Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. Theoretical economic concepts also apply to the “data economy” which has its own market failures.
The “semicircular” flow is a theoretical model that aims to simplify the complex reality of the “data economy.” It facilitates discussion about the why and how of data policy.
The general idea is that the data flow is semicircular; from households and firms to data holders, but not in the other direction. Households and firms receive data-driven services that are the result of knowledge extracted from data. If citizens would receive data, they would not have the capacity to process nor extract knowledge from that data. One of the objectives of data policy is to empower the individual.

GLO: Why is the level of knowledge below the socially desirable amount?

Pablo de Pedraza: The question is whether the process of extracting knowledge from data is a natural monopoly, which is an empirical question for which we have no answer yet. We can observe how data holders like large technology companies behave. They are data hungry, in the search for the perfect marketing tool. In econometric terms, they are in a race towards N=All and X=everything.
If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, and data holders are profit maximization agents and monopoly theory holds, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount. Therefore, public intervention should focus on increasing knowledge generation. What kind of knowledge? Data is a different type of good depending on the kind of knowledge generated. Using data to generate market power is a demerit good. Data is a merit good if used: to deliver nimbler public policy, to protect competitive markets, to forecast economic cycles, to protect consumer’s rights, and study a pandemic.

GLO: Some people say, we have enough data, but not the right one….

Pablo de Pedraza: The data economy has its own sources of access inequalities similar to income inequalities. Many agents that could generate merit knowledge, such as the scientific community, central banks or anti-trust authorities, do not have enough access to data.
For example, research literature shows how online searches can improve forecasting models. One of the main conclusions from that literature is that better understanding of results needs the disclosure of more data. More accurate forecasting is an example of merit knowledge that benefits the whole society, including data holders.

GLO: Can your theory help us to understand the data challenge in the coronavirus crisis?

Pablo de Pedraza: Yes. Think about mobile apps to track Covid-19. The more citizens responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus. The semicircular flow of the economy defines the data sharing Laffer curve. It explains the theoretical determinants of optimum data sharing as the point where society generates the maximum amount of data and merit knowledge. Principles that define the curve, such as trust, apply to the covid-19 data challenge. When citizens understand the data dimension of the economy and trust the rule of law, they are more willing to contribute to a solution, install the app, and give consent to share their data. If they do not understand what they are giving their consent for, they will be hesitant to install the app and therefore; data generated will be lower and knowledge will be below the socially desirable amount.  

GLO: What are the conclusions for data sharing policies?

Pablo de Pedraza: In a data economy, the race for innovation is the race for data. Leaving data policy only in the hands of data holders will not solve antitrust concerns. The lack of competition stifles innovation although it may initially attract investment. However, excessive intervention discourages investment from data holders and generate surveillance concerns. Countries able to empower well-informed citizens by developing their data literacy, fostering user centric approaches, building strong public data infrastructures and institutions will win the race. Citizens operating in a secure environment will generate more data and increase innovation.
In my opinion, data sharing policies are just as vital and important as fiscal and monetary policies. The semicircular flow of the economy is a data sharing theoretical framework. The data dimension of the covid-19 crisis is an illustrative example of that framework.

*************
With Pablo de Pedraza spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

Ends;

IESR & GLO intensify strategic partnership

The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) intensify their collaborations, as IESR Director Shuaizhang Feng and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann have declared.

IESR Director Shuaizhang Feng has been appointed GLO Country Lead China. IESR provides institutional support as a GLO-related institution and serves as a local host for GLO activities.

Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. IESR and GLO are jointly organizing a virtual conference on the economic issues of Covid-19. The event is a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers. Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). The Virtual Conference takes place on June 5-7, 2020. Deadline for paper submission is May 24. MORE INFO.

Journal of Population Economics: Klaus F. Zimmermann is Editor-in-Chief; Shuaizhang Feng one of the Editors.

IESR-GLO Conferences 2018 – 2020.

  • 2020 June 5-7: Guangzhou, Jinan University, China. Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference on “The Economics of Covit-19”. Virtual event. MORE INFO.
  • 2019, March 21-22: Guangzhou, China. Jinan University. IESR-GLO Conference on “Belt and Road” Labor Markets. Organizers: Shuaizhang Feng and Klaus F. Zimmermann. A focus was China, South Asia and South East Asia. GLO News Report. IESR Report LINK WEBSITE.
  • 2018, March 11-20: Guangzhou/China; Jinan University; Research and contact visit of the GLO President. Career seminar provided by the GLO President. First GLO-IESR Conference on “Labor Economics” and various paper presentations by GLO Fellows. Public Policy Lecture of the GLO President on European Migration.  Debate with Editor of “Social Science in China” by the GLO President and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics.  Debate with Dean & GLO Fellow Shuaizhang Feng by the GLO President on unemployment.

Ends;

Does retirement lead to life satisfaction? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper contains robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 536, 2020

Does retirement lead to life satisfaction? Causal evidence from fixed effect instrumental variable models – Download PDF
by
Nguyen, Ha Trong & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R.

GLO Fellow Ha Trong Nguyen

Author Abstract: This paper presents robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction which is subsequently explained by improvements in satisfaction with one’s financial situation, free time, health, and participation in local community activities. Furthermore, while the positive wellbeing impact of retirement is sizable initially, it fades after the first 3 years. We find that the improvements in financial satisfaction upon retirement are only observed for low-income individuals. However, the wellbeing impact of retirement does not differ by gender, educational, occupational, economic or marital backgrounds. We also explore several potential explanations for our findings. This paper employs a fixed effect instrumental variable model, which exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension to construct an instrument for retirement, and 18 waves of high-quality Australian panel data. The results also suggest that failing to adequately account for the endogeneity of retirement would result in a downward-biased estimate of a positive wellbeing impact of retirement.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Featured image: Photo by Elijah Hail on Unsplash

Ends;

The effect of educational technology on college students’ labor market performance. New article published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that information and communications technology (ICT) significantly increases students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and higher wages. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search.

Read more in:

The effect of educational technology on college students’ labor market performance

Yi Lu, Hong Song

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1101-1126
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on college students’ labor market performance. Using a large, representative survey of college students in China, we examine outcomes before and after students were exposed to technology-aided instruction, compared with students who were not exposed to such instruction. The results indicate that the ICT program significantly increased students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and the wage they were offered. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search. While most previous studies of the use of technology in education focus only on students’ academic achievement and find zero or negative effects, our study demonstrates that technology may be an effective tool for improving college students’ labor market performance, and that the potential benefits of technology might be underestimated if we focus only on test scores and ignore students’ career development.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Welfare Dynamics in India over a Quarter Century: Poverty, Vulnerability, and Mobility during 1987-2012. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper uncovers patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution in India over a quarter century.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 535, 2020

Welfare Dynamics in India over a Quarter Century: Poverty, Vulnerability, and Mobility during 1987-2012 – Download PDF
by
Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw, Peter F.

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: We analyze the Indian National Sample Survey data spanning 1987/88–2011/12 to uncover patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution. At the aggregate level, income growth has accelerated, accompanied by accelerating poverty decline. Underlying these trends is a process of mobility, with 40–60 percent of the population transitioning between consumption classes and increasing mobility over time. Yet, the majority of those who escape poverty remain vulnerable. Most of those who are poor were also poor in the preceding period and, thus, are likely to be chronically poor. The characteristics of upwardly mobile households contrast with those of the poor; these households are also far less likely to experience downward mobility. We also find that states exhibit heterogenous mobility patterns.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Note featured image: Photo-by-Trevor-Cole-on-Unsplash-scaled

Ends;

Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth. New article published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides a model that can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth.

Read more in:

Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth

Alberto Bucci, Klaus Prettner

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1025-1068
FREE READ LINK

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Drawing policy suggestions to fight Covid-19 from hardly reliable data. A machine-learning contribution in a new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates Covid-19 infection detection by using a machine learning procedure for hardly reliable data to identify structural breaks. It finds successfully for Italy three structural breaks that can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 534, 2020

Drawing policy suggestions to fight Covid-19 from hardly reliable data. A machine-learning contribution on lockdowns analysis Download PDF
by
Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Patriarca, Fabrizio

GLO Fellow Fabrizio Patriarca

Author Abstract: Feedback control-based mitigation strategies for COVID-19 are threatened by the time span occurring before an infection is detected in official data. Such a delay also depends on behavioral, technological and procedural issues other than the incubation period. We provide a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in detected positive cases dynamics using territorial level panel data. In our case study, Italy, three structural breaks are found and they can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities. This allows assessing the detection delays and their relevant variability among the different measures adopted and the relative effectiveness of each of them. Accordingly we draw some policy suggestions to support feedback control based mitigation policies as to decrease their risk of failure, including the further role that wide swap campaigns may play in reducing the detection delay. Finally, by exploiting the huge heterogeneity among Italian provinces features, we stress some drawbacks of the restrictive measures specific features and of their sequence of adoption, among which, the side effects of the main lockdown on social and economic inequalities.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Males’ housing wealth and their marriage market advantage. A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that housing or real estate improves the man’s status in the marriage market of Taiwan.

Read more in:

Males’ housing wealth and their marriage market advantage

C. Y. Cyrus Chu, Jou-Chun Lin, Wen-Jen Tsay

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1005-1023
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: In theory, people who own real estate should have advantage finding a partner in the marriage market. Empirical analyses along this line, however, face three issues. First, it is difficult to identify any causality for whether housing facilitates marriage or expected marriage facilitates a housing purchase. Second, survey samples usually do not cover very wealthy people, and so the observations are top coding in the wealth dimension. Third, getting married is a dynamic life cycle decision, and rich life-history data are rarely available. This paper uses registry data from Taiwan to estimate the impact of males’ housing wealth on their first-marriage duration, taking into account all three issues mentioned above. We find that a 10% increase in real estate wealth increases probability of a man getting married in any particular year by 3.92%. Our finding suggests that housing or real estate is a status good in the marriage market.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Leaders among the leaders in Economics: A network analysis of the Nobel Prize laureates. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the total productivity of their respective networks among all nobel prize winners identifies Deaton, Tirole, Arrow and Stiglitz as global leaders in economics.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 533, 2020

Leaders among the leaders in Economics: A network analysis of the Nobel Prize laureates  – Download PDF
by
Molina, José Alberto & Iñiguez, David & Ruiz, Gonzalo & Tarancón, Alfonso

GLO Fellow José Alberto Molina

Author Abstract: We analyse the production and networks of Nobel laureates in Economics, employing the Normalized Impact Factor (NIF) of their publications in the Journal of Citation Report (Economics), to identify the academic leaders among those laureates awarded between 1969 and 2016. Our results indicate that direct collaborations among laureates are, in general, rare, but when we add all the co-authors of the laureates, there appears a very large component containing 70% of the nodes, so that more than two thirds of the laureates can be connected through only two steps. Deaton, Tirole, Arrow, and Stiglitz are identified as leaders according to the total production of their respective networks.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Exploring the role of parental engagement in non-cognitive skill development over the lifecourse. Just published in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics highlights that fathers in Australia play a pivotal role in the skill production process of their kids over the lifecourse.

Read more in:

Exploring the role of parental engagement in non-cognitive skill development over the lifecourse

Rosemary Elkins & Stefanie Schurer

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 957-1004
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We examine the role that parental engagement with child’s education plays in the lifecourse dynamics of locus of control (LOC), one of the most widely studied non-cognitive skills related to economic decision-making. We focus on parental engagement as previous studies have shown that it is malleable, easy to measure, and often available for fathers, whose inputs are notably understudied in the received literature. We estimate a standard skill production function using rich British cohort data. Parental engagement is measured with information provided at age 10 by the teacher on whether the father or the mother is very interested in the child’s education. We deal with the potential endogeneity in parental engagement by employing an added-value model, using lagged measures of LOC as a proxy for innate endowments and unmeasured inputs. We find that fathers’, but not mothers’, engagement leads to internality, a belief associated with positive lifetime outcomes, in both young adulthood and middle age for female and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort members. Fathers’ engagement also increases the probability of lifelong internality and fully protects against lifelong externality. Our findings highlight that fathers play a pivotal role in the skill production process over the lifecourse.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

The COVID-19 crisis and telework: A research survey on experiences, expectations and hopes. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking and digital conferencing will continue after the coronacrisis.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 532, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis and telework: A research survey on experiences, expectations and hopesDownload PDF
by
Baert, Stijn & Lippens, Louis & Moens, Eline & Sterkens, Philippe & Weytjens, Johannes

GLO Fellow Stijn Baert

Author Abstract: While a considerable number of employees across the globe are being forced to work from home due to the COVID-19 crisis, it is a guessing game as to how they are experiencing this current surge in telework. Therefore, we examined employee perceptions of telework on various life and career aspects, distinguishing between typical and extended telework during the COVID-19 crisis. To this end, we conducted a state-of-the-art web survey among Flemish employees. Notwithstanding this exceptional time of sudden, obligatory and high-intensity telework, our respondents mainly attribute positive characteristics to teleworking, such as increased efficiency and a lower risk of burnout. The results also suggest that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking (85%) and digital conferencing (81%) are here to stay. In contrast, some fear that telework diminishes their promotion opportunities and weakens ties with their colleagues and employer.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that an early-life social safety net program has a sizeable impact on child health outcomes at birth.

Read more in:

Growing together: assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program

Damian Clarke, Gustavo Cortés Méndez

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 883-956
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We study the acting mechanism of an early-life social safety net program and quantify its impact on child health outcomes at birth. We consider both the equity and efficiency implications of program impacts and provide a metric to compare such programs around the world. In particular, we estimate the impact of participation in Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC), Chile’s flagship early-life health and social welfare program, using a difference-in-differences style model based on variation in program intensity and administrative birth data matched to social benefits usage. We find that this targeted social program had significant effects on birth weight (approximately 10 grams) and other early-life human capital measures. These benefits are largest among the most socially vulnerable groups but shift outcomes toward the middle of the distribution of health at birth. We show that the program is efficient when compared to other successful neonatal health programs around the world and find some evidence to suggest that maternal nutrition components and increased links to the social safety net are important action mechanisms.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Peers, Gender, and Long-Term Depression. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that peer depression in adolescence affects own depression in adulthood, but family can function as a buffer.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 531, 2020

Peers, Gender, and Long-Term Depression– Download PDF
by
Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves

GLO Fellows Corrado Giulietti & Yves Zenou

Author Abstract: We provide first evidence that peer depression in adolescence affects own depression in adulthood. We use data from Add Health and an identification strategy that relies on within-school and across-cohort idiosyncratic variation in the share of own-gender peers who are depressed. We find a significant peer effect for females but not for males. An increase of one standard deviation of the share of own-gender peers (schoolmates) who are depressed increases the probability of depression in adulthood by 2.6 percentage points for females (or 11.5% of mean depression). We also find that the peer effect is already present in the short term when girls are still in school and provide evidence for why it persists over time. Further analysis reveals that individuals from families with a lower socioeconomic background are more susceptible to peer influence, thereby suggesting that family can function as a buffer. Our findings underscore the importance of peer relationships in adolescence with regard to the development of long-lasting depression in women.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides causal evidence that children increase mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness in a large sample of women from 35 developing countries.

Read more in:

Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being

Jan Priebe

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 839-882
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: This article presents causal evidence on the impact of fertility on women’s subjective well-being using quasi-experimental variation due to preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition (having at least one child of each sex). Based on a large sample of women from 35 developing countries, I find that having children increases mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness. I further establish that the positive impact of fertility on subjective well-being can be explained by related increases in mothers’ satisfaction with family life, friendship, and treatment by others.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply. New article in the Journal of Population Economics.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that Vietnam’s two-child policy decreased the average number of living children per woman, decreased also the proportion of sons in each family and increased maternal employment.

Read more in:

Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply

Anh P. Ngo

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 751-794
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: In 1988, facing a total fertility rate of over four births per woman, the Vietnamese government introduced a new policy that required parents to have no more than two children. Using data from the Vietnam Population and Housing Censuses from 1989, 1999, and 2009, I apply a differences-in-differences framework to assess the effects of this policy on family size, son preference, and maternal employment. I find that the policy decreased the probability that a woman has more than two children by 15 percentage points for younger women and by 7 percentage points for middle-aged women. The policy reduced the average number of living children by 0.2 births per woman. Low-education women and women in rural areas were more affected by the policy. The policy had no effects on mothers’ age at first birth and gender of mothers’ last birth. The reduction in fertility caused by the policy was associated with a 1.2 percentage point decrease in the proportion of sons in each family. The policy increased maternal employment by 1.3 percentage points. Instrumental variables estimates of the effects of fertility on maternal employment and child education suggest a negative relationship between the number of children and female labor supply and a trade-off between child quantity and child quality in Vietnam.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

Call for Papers: Virtual IESR-GLO Conference on the Economics of Covid-19 with Daron Acemoglu & Charles Manski

Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on the economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We intend to provide a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers.

  • We are pleased to announce that the conference will feature keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
  • The conference will be held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar. Each presentation will take 25 minutes. We also welcome proposals of a session of two related papers.

Please submit a paper at https://wj.qq.com/s2/6209137/1e75 no later than May 24. The contact author will be notified of the decision by May 27. Considering the time constraint, submissions before May 24 are very much appreciated and we will contact authors of accepted papers as quickly as possible. We charge no fees.

Tentative Schedule (local time) for June 5 (Friday), June 6 (Saturday), June 7 (Sunday):

 BeijingBerlinWashington DC
Regular session, 2 papers, 25min + 10min discussant + 10min Q&A8:15pm – 9:45pm2:15pm – 3:45pm8:15am – 9:45am
Keynote session, 40 min talk + 10 min Q&A10:00pm – 10:50pm4:00pm – 4:50pm10:00am – 10:50am
Regular session, 2 papers, 25min + 10min discussant + 10min Q&A11:00pm – 12:30am5:00pm – 6:30pm11:00am – 12:30pm

Organizers

The conference is supported by the Journal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers will be published in the next available issue.

For inquiries regarding the conference, please contact Wei Shi at wshi16@jnu.edu.cn. If you encounter any submission problems, please contact Indre Krakauskaite at indre.krakauskaite@gmail.com. The conference website is https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/IESR_GLO/main.htm.

Ends;

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of April on Government Responses to the Coronavirus

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of April underscores the need for further research to consider the medium and long run economic impacts of COVID-19 and its impacts on human capital accumulation, early-life exposure and labor market discrimination.

See below links to further work of the GLO network on the corinavirus.

See also below the list of all GLO DPs of April with links to free access.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: April

524 The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response – Download PDF
by Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor  

Author Abstract: In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID- 19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 in- creased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less-educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, work- ers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers of April 2020

530 Is Happiness U-shaped Everywhere? Age and Subjective Well-being in 145 Countries  – Download PDF
by 
Blanchflower, David G.

529 Do Swedish schools discriminate against children with disabilities?  – Download PDF
by 
Ahmed, Ali & Hammarstedt, Mats & Karlsson, Karl

528 Working From Home Under COVID-19: Who Is Affected? Evidence From Latin American and Caribbean Countries – Download PDF
by 
Delaporte, Isaure & Peña, Werner

527 The Perceived Well-being and Health Costs of Exiting Self-Employment – Download PDF
by 
Nikolova, Milena & Nikolaev, Boris & Popova, Olga

526 When Goal-Setting Forges Ahead but Stops Short – Download PDF
by 
Islam, Asad & Kwon, Sungoh & Masood, Eema & Prakash, Nishith & Sabarwal, Shwetlena & Saraswat, Deepak

525 Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment: Evidence from School Reform in Chile – Download PDF
by 
Berthelon, Matias & Kruger, Diana & Lauer, Catalina & Tiberti, Luca & Zamora, Carlos

524 The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response – Download PDF
by 
Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor

523 Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession – Download PDF
by 
Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong

522 A spatial analysis of inward FDI and rural-urban wage inequality: Evidence from China – Download PDF
by 
Wang, Hao & Fidrmuc, Jan & Luo, Qi

521 The technological contest between China and the United States – Download PDF
by 
Toro Hardy, Alfredo

520 How do we think the COVID-19 crisis will affect our careers (if any remain)?  – Download PDF
by 
Baert, Stijn & Lippens, Louis & Moens, Eline & Sterkens, Philippe & Weytjens, Johannes

519 Bottom incomes and the measurement of poverty and inequality – Download PDF
by 
Hlasny, Vladimir & Ceriani, Lidia & Verme, Paolo

518 Automation and Demographic Change – Download PDF
by 
Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus

517 Biomarkers, disability and health care demand – Download PDF
by 
Davillas, Apostolos & Pudney, Stephen

516 Confronting COVID-19 Myths: Morbidity and Mortality – Download PDF
by
Jelnov, Pavel

515 The Semicircular Flow of the Data Economy and the Data Sharing Laffer curve – Download PDF
by 
de Pedraza, Pablo & Vollbracht, Ian

514 Commuting and self-employment in Western Europe – Download PDF
by 
Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge

513 Italian Workers at Risk During the Covid-19 Epidemic – Download PDF
by 
Barbieri, Teresa & Basso, Gaetano & Scicchitano, Sergio

512 Do Quarantine Experiences and Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Affect the Distribution of Psychological Outcomes in China? A Quantile Regression Analysis  Download PDF
by 
Lu, Haiyang & Nie, Peng & Qian, Long

511 Teaching ‘out of field’ in STEM subjects in Australia: Evidence from PISA 2015 – Download PDF
by 
Shah, Chandra & Richardson, Paul & Watt, Helen

510 BrExit or BritaIn: Is the UK more Attractive to Supervisors? An Analysis of Wage Premium to Supervision across the EU – Download PDF
by 
Biagetti, Marco & Giangreco, Antonio & Leonida, Leone & Scicchitano, Sergio

509 What makes work meaningful and why economists should care about it – Download PDF
by 
Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke

508 Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by 
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin

507 The children are alright: Revisiting the impact of parental migration in the Philippines – Download PDF
by 
Pajaron, Marjorie & Latinazo, Cara T. & Trinidad, Enrico G.

GLO DP Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of GroningenDP@glabor.org  

Ends;

Is Happiness U-shaped? Age and Subjective Well-being in 145 Countries. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides global evidence that the U-shaped happiness-age curve is everywhere.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 530, 2020

Is Happiness U-shaped Everywhere? Age and Subjective Well-being in 145 Countries – Download PDF
by
Blanchflower, David G.

GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower

Author Abstract: A large empirical literature has debated the U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in one hundred and forty-five countries, including one hundred and nine developing countries, controlling for education, marital and labor force status, among others on samples of individuals under the age of seventy. The curve is forcefully confirmed with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age fifty, employing separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa as robustness checks. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the finding using such data largely confirms the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the minima has risen over time in Europe and the United States. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Do Swedish schools discriminate against children with disabilities? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that Swedish schools discriminated against children with certain disabilities, and that discrimination is most prevalent in private schools.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 529, 2020

Do Swedish schools discriminate against children with disabilities? – Download PDF
by
Ahmed, Ali & Hammarstedt, Mats & Karlsson, Karl

GLO Fellow Mats Hammarstedt

Author Abstract: We present results from a field experiment in which fictitious parents to children with certain types of disabilities, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), make inquires to Swedish schools about admission for their children to the compulsory preschool class. Our results reveal that Swedish schools discriminated against children with these disabilities and that discrimination is most prevalent in private schools. Private schools discriminated against boys with ADHD and T1DM and against girls with ADHD. Furthermore, public schools discriminated against girls with ADHD. One potential effect of our results is that children with disabilities are referred to less attractive schools than children with no such medical conditions. These results may have implications for the possibilities for individuals with ADHD and T1DM to succeed in the labor market in the long run.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Working From Home Under COVID-19: A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents considerable variation in the potential to work from home across occupations, industries, regions and workers’ socioeconomic characteristics in Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 528, 2020

Working From Home Under COVID-19: Who Is Affected? Evidence From Latin American and Caribbean Countries – Download PDF
by
Delaporte, Isaure & Peña, Werner

GLO Fellow Isaure Delaporte

Author Abstract: Millions of individuals are required to work from home as part of national efforts to fight COVID-19. To evaluate the employment impact of the pandemic, an important point is whether individuals are able to work from home. This paper estimates the share of jobs that can be performed at home in 23 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries as well as examines the workers’ characteristics associated with such jobs. To carry out this analysis, this paper uses rich harmonised household surveys and presents two measures of teleworkability. The first measure of the feasibility of working from home is borrowed from Dingel and Neiman (2020), while the second closely follows the methodology of Saltiel (2020). We use the second measure as our benchmark, as it is based on a more representative task content of occupations for LAC countries. We find that the share of individuals who are able to work from home varies from 7% in Guatemala to 16% in the Bahamas. We document considerable variation in the potential to work from home across occupations, industries, regions and workers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that some individuals are better positioned to cope with the current situation than others. This highlights the need to assist the most vulnerable workers in the context of the global pandemic.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.
SEE FOR MORE DETAILS AND FREE ACCESS TO THE PREPUBLICATION REVISED DRAFT!

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

The Perceived Well-being and Health Costs of Exiting Self-Employment. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that transitioning from self-employment to salaried employment brings small improvements in health and life satisfaction, but the negative psychological costs of business failure are substantial and exceed the costs of involuntarily losing a salaried job.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 527, 2020

The Perceived Well-being and Health Costs of Exiting Self-Employment – Download PDF
by
Nikolova, Milena & Nikolaev, Boris & Popova, Olga

GLO Fellows Milena Nikolova, Boris Nikolaev & Olga Popova

Milena Nikolova

Author Abstract: We explore how involuntary and voluntary exits from self-employment affect life and health satisfaction. To that end, we use rich longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1985 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences estimation. Our findings suggest that while transitioning from self-employment to salaried employment (i.e., a voluntary self-employment exit) brings small improvements in health and life satisfaction, the negative psychological costs of business failure (i.e., switching from self-employment to unemployment) are substantial and exceed the costs of involuntarily losing a salaried job (i.e., switching from salaried employment to unemployment). Meanwhile, leaving self-employment has no consequences for selfreported physical health and behaviors such as smoking and drinking, implying that the costs of losing self-employment are largely psychological. Moreover, former business owners fail to adapt to an involuntary self-employment exit even two or more years after this traumatic event. Our findings imply that policies encouraging entrepreneurship should also carefully consider the costs of business failure.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

When Goal-Setting Forges Ahead but Stops Short. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that on Zanzibar goal-setting among students has a significant positive impact on time use, study effort, and self-discipline – but no impact on their test scores.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 526, 2020

When Goal-Setting Forges Ahead but Stops Short – Download PDF
by Islam, Asad & Kwon, Sungoh & Masood, Eema & Prakash, Nishith & Sabarwal, Shwetlena & Saraswat, Deepak

GLO Fellow Asad Islam & Nishith Prakash

Author Abstract: In this study, we use at scale randomized control trial among 18,000 secondary students in 181 schools in Tanzania (Zanzibar) to examine the effects of personal best goal-settings on students’ academic performance. We also offer non-financial rewards to students to meet the goals they set. We find that goal-setting has a significant positive impact on student time use, study effort, and self-discipline. However, we do not find any significant impact of goalsetting on test scores. We find that, this could be partially because about 2/3rd of students do not set realistic goals. Third, we find weaker results on time use, study effort, and discipline when we combine goal-setting with non-financial rewards, suggesting that typing goal-setting to extrinsic incentives could weaken its impact. We also find that female students improved on outcomes much more than male students and that students coming from relatively weaker socio-economic backgrounds improved more than their counterparts.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Terra McKinnish of University of Colorado Boulder joins the group of Editors of the Journal of Population Economics

With immediate effect, Terra McKinnish (University of Colorado Boulder) joins the group of Editors of the Journal of Population Economics. She will work with Editors Alessandro Cigno (University of Florence), Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University), Oded Galor (Brown University), Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT) and with Managing Editors Michaella Vanore (UNU-MERIT) and Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida).

GLO: What brought you to economics?

Terra McKinnish: I started as an undergraduate economics major intending to pursue an MBA, but then came to appreciate that economics is a social science that can be used to study a wide variety of interesting topics.

GLO: What is your field of specialization and what excites you most?

Terra McKinnish: My research has focused on topics in population economics and labor economics. I am most interested in how individuals make key life decisions about education, location, family structure and work. My recent research has particularly focused on marriage: how do we pick our spouse and what are the consequences of that choice?

GLO: In the next future, will there be journal space in economics beyond coronavirus research?

Terra McKinnish: I certainly hope so! Economics journals currently support a broad range of research topics, and I like to think that won’t change. Certainly I don’t think we will see many papers using 2020-2021 data for topics that are not specifically Covid19 focused, so there will be a major disruption to non-Covid19 research in that sense.

GLO: Conferences and networking play a major role in academia; will this go on after the crisis?

Terra McKinnish: Yes, I think we will get back there in the medium-run. In the shorter run, I am concerned for younger researchers, who most benefit from face-to-face opportunities to establish their research reputation and develop a network. I hope departments will think about this when scheduling (virtual) seminars, and will consider including less established researchers.

GLO: Is the profession publishing too much?

Terra McKinnish: I think the Economics profession is producing an enormous amount of high-quality research. There is so much competition and standards are very high! The profession has been particularly invigorated by the international diffusion of modern research methodology, which has resulted in high-caliber research being conducted for a wider variety of national and international settings.

GLO: What makes in your view a good academic journal?

Terra McKinnish: An attention to consequential research questions and contributions, combined with high methodological standards, and attention to clarity in exposition.

GLO: Face female researchers still disadvantages in the publishing process?

Terra McKinnish: As someone who has been heavily involved in mentoring junior women in economics, including several years as Associate Chair of Mentoring of CSWEP (AEA standing Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession), I think most of the hurdles for women are adjacent to the publication process rather than directly in the process itself. If women have disproportionate service loads, this will affect their ability to conduct research. If women do not receive the same mentoring, feedback and encouragement as men on their research, this will affect the quality of their publications. If women’s contributions to co-authored research are judged differently than men’s, this will affect their career trajectory.

With Editor and GLO Fellow Terra McKinnish spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President & Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics.

GLO Fellow Terra McKinnish is a Professor of Economics and Faculty Associate of the Institute of Behavioral Science at the University of Colorado Boulder, where she is also the Director of the Center to Advance Research and Training in the Social Sciences (CARTSS).  Her research focuses on topics in population economics and labor economics, with particular interest in marital sorting, marital quality and women’s labor market outcomes. She has been an Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics and she serves on the Editorial Board of Demography.

Editor-in-Chief & Managing Editors

Editors

Further Journal of Population Economics News:
The Journal invites studies dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. Qualified articles are published as soon as possible in regular issues.
“Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China” by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei
Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.
PDF of the prepublication revised draft.

Ends;

Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic. GLO Discussion Paper No. 508 now accepted for publication in The World Economy.

The GLO Discussion Paper finds that measures of globalization are positively related to the spread of the virus, both in speed and size. However, the study also confirms that globalized countries are better equipped to keep fatality rates low.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020

Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by
Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin

Cover image

NOW FORTHCOMING IN: The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

GLO Fellows Klaus F. Zimmermann, Gökhan Karabulut, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Asli Cansin Doker

Author Abstract: Originating in China, the Coronavirus has reached the world at different speeds and levels of strength. This paper provides some initial understanding of some driving factors and their consequences. Since transmission requires people, the human factor behind globalization is essential. Globalization, a major force behind global wellbeing and equality, is highly associated with this factor. The analysis investigates the impact globalization has on the speed of initial transmission to a country and on the size of initial infections in the context of other driving factors. Our cross-country analysis finds that measures of globalization are positively related to the spread of the virus, both in speed and size. However, the study also finds that globalized countries are better equipped to keep fatality rates low. The conclusion is not to reduce globalization to avoid pandemics, but to better monitor the human factor at the outbreak and to mobilize collaboration forces to curtail diseases.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.
SEE FOR MORE DETAILS AND FREE ACCESS TO THE PREPUBLICATION REVISED DRAFT!

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment: Evidence from School Reform in Chile. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that school reform in Chile improving childcare increased the quality of parents’ jobs. Less educated mothers benefited most.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 525, 2020

Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment: Evidence from School Reform in Chile – Download PDF
by
Berthelon, Matias & Kruger, Diana & Lauer, Catalina & Tiberti, Luca & Zamora, Carlos

GLO Fellow Luca Tiberti

Author Abstract: Ample empirical evidence has found that access to childcare for preschool children increases mothers’ labor force participation and employment. In this paper, we investigate whether increased childcare for primary school children improves the quality of jobs mothers find by estimating the causal effect of a school schedule reform in Chile. Combining plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in school schedules with a panel of individual mothers’ employment between 2002 and 2015, we estimated a fixed-effects model that controlled for unobserved heterogeneity. We found a positive effect of access to full-day schools on several measures of ’the quality of mothers’ jobs, which were correlated to working full-time. We also found small, positive effects on quality of fathers’ jobs. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the effect was the effect of the reform’s implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare on the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. We also found that less educated mothers benefited most from the reform. Thus, childcare can increase household welfare by improving parents’ jobs and can play a role in reducing inequality.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

32nd EBES Conference in Istanbul has been moved to August 5-7, 2020 due to the Coronacrisis

The 32nd EBES Conference in Istanbul was moved to August 5-7, 2020 due to the Coronacrisis.

See PDF of New Call.

32nd EBES Conference – Istanbul, August 5-7, 2020, Istanbul, Turkey
Hosted by Kadir Has University

Invited Speakers

We are pleased to announce that distinguished colleagues Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Marco Vivarelli and Dorothea Schäfer will join the conference as keynote speakers:

Dr. Asli Demirguc-Kunt is the Chief Economist of Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank. Over her 30-year career in the World Bank, she has also served as the Director of Research, Director of Development Policy, and the Chief Economist of the Finance and Private Sector Development Network, conducting research and advising on financial and private sector development issues. She has published articles in many of the leading economics and finance journals such as Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, The Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Economic Perspectives etc. and is among the most-cited researchers in the world (Google Scholar = 76K). Her research has focused on the links between financial development, firm performance, and economic development. Banking and financial crises, financial regulation, access to financial services and inclusion, as well as SME finance and entrepreneurship are among her areas of research. She has also created the Global Financial Development Report series and the Global Findex financial inclusion database. She was the President of the International Atlantic Economic Society (2013-14) and Director of the Western Economic Association (2015-18) and serves on the editorial boards of professional journals. Prior to her position in the World Bank, she was an Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in economics from Ohio State University.

Klaus F. Zimmermann is President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO); Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT; Full Professor of Economics at Bonn University (em.); Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Free University of Berlin and Renmin University of China; Member, German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, Regional Science Academy, and Academia Europaea (Chair of its Section for Economics, Business and Management Sciences). Among others, he has worked at Macquarie University, the Universities of Melbourne, Princeton, Harvard, Munich, Kyoto, Mannheim, Dartmouth College and the University of Pennsylvania. Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and Fellow of the European Economic Association (EEA). Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics. Editorial Board of International Journal of Manpower, Research in Labor Economics and Comparative Economic Studies, among others. Founding Director, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Past-President, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). Distinguished John G. Diefenbaker Award 1998 of the Canada Council for the Arts; Outstanding Contribution Award 2013 of the European Investment Bank. Rockefeller Foundation Policy Fellow 2017; Eminent Research Scholar Award 2017, Australia; EBES Fellow Award 2018. He has published in many top journals including Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Public Choice, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Population Economics and Journal of Public Economics. His research fields are population, labor, development, and migration.

Marco Vivarelli is a full professor at the Catholic University of Milano, where he is also Director of the Institute of Economic Policy. He is Professorial Fellow at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht; Research Fellow at IZA, Bonn; Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). He is member of the Scientific Executive Board of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES); member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO, Vienna) and has been scientific consultant for the International Labour Office (ILO), World Bank (WB), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the European Commission. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Business Review, Editor of Small Business Economics, Associate Editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, Associate Editor of Economics E-Journal, member of the Editorial Board of Sustainability and he has served as a referee for more than 70 international journals. He is author/editor of various books and his papers have been published in journals such as Cambridge Journal of Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economics Letters, Industrial and Corporate Change, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Economics, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Labour Economics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Regional Studies, Research Policy, Small Business Economics, Southern Economic Journal, World Bank Research Observer, and World Development. His current research interests include the relationship between innovation, employment, and skills; the labor market and income distribution impacts of globalization; the entry and post-entry performance of newborn firms.

Dorothea Schäfer is the Research Director of Financial Markets at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and Adjunct Professor of Jönköping International Business School, Jönköping University. She has also worked as an evaluator for the European Commission, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and Chairwoman of Evaluation Committee for LOEWE (Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz des Bundeslandes Hessen). She managed various research projects supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), the EU Commission, the Fritz Thyssen Foundation and the Stiftung Geld und Währung. Her researches were published in various journals such as Journal of Financial Stability; German Economic Review; International Journal of Money and Finance; Small Business Economics; and Economic Modelling. She is regularly invited as an expert in parliamentary committees, including the Finance Committee of the Bundestag and gives lectures on financial market issues in Germany and abroad. She is also a member of the Editorial Board and Editor-in-Chief of the policy-oriented journal “Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung” (Quarterly Journal for Economic Research) and Editor-in-Chief of Eurasian Economic Review. Her research topics include financial crisis, financial market regulation, financing constraints, gender, and financial markets, financial transaction tax.

Board

Prof. Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT and Maatricht University, The NetherlandsProf. Jonathan Batten, University Utara Malaysia, Malaysia
Prof. Iftekhar Hasan, Fordham University, U.S.A.
Prof. Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Prof. John Rust, Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Prof. Dorothea Schäfer, German Institute for Economic Research DIW Berlin, Germany
Prof. Marco Vivarelli, Università Cattolica Del Sacro Cuore, Italy

Abstract/Paper Submission
Authors are invited to submit their abstracts or papers no later than July 3, 2020
For submission, please visit our website at https://www.ebesweb.org/Conferences/32nd-EBES-Conference-Istanbul/Abstract-Submission.aspx no submission fee is required.
General inquiries regarding the call for papers should be directed to ebes@ebesweb.org.

Publication Opportunities

Qualified papers can be published in EBES journals (Eurasian Business Review and Eurasian Economic Review) or EBES Proceedings books after a peer-review process without any submission or publication fees. In this regard, qualified papers from the 32nd EBES Conference will be published in the special issues of EABR and EAER. However, if there are not enough qualified papers submitted for the special issues, there will be no special issues and qualified papers will be published in the regular issues of the journals.

EBES journals (EABR and EAER) are published by Springer and both are indexed in the SCOPUS, EBSCO EconLit with Full Text, Google Scholar, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, CNKI, EBSCO Business Source, EBSCO Discovery Service, EBSCO TOC Premier, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), OCLC WorldCat Discovery Service, ProQuest ABI/INFORM, ProQuest Business Premium Collection, ProQuest Central, ProQuest Turkey Database, ProQuest-ExLibris Primo, ProQuest-ExLibris Summon, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Cabell’s Directory, and Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory. In addition, while EAER is indexed in the Emerging Sources Citation Index (Clarivate Analytics), EABR is indexed in the Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) and Current Contents / Social & Behavioral Sciences.

Also, all accepted abstracts will be published electronically in the Conference Program and the Abstract Book (with an ISBN number). It will be distributed to all conference participants at the conference via USB. Although submitting full papers are not required, all the submitted full papers will also be included in the conference proceedings in a USB. After the conference, participants will also have the opportunity to send their paper to be published (after a refereeing process managed by EBES) in the Springer’s series Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics (no submission and publication fees).

This will also be sent to Clarivate Analytics in order to be reviewed for coverage in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Please note that the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th (Vol. 2), and 24th EBES Conference Proceedings are accepted for inclusion in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Other conference proceedings are in progress.

Important Dates

Abstract Submission Start Date: January 15, 2020
Abstract Submission Deadline: July 3, 2020
Reply-by: July 6, 2020*
Registration Deadline: July 17, 2020
Announcement of the Program: July 20, 2020
Paper Submission Deadline (Optional): July 17, 2020**
Paper Submission for the EBES journals: September 15, 2020

* The decision regarding the acceptance/rejection of each abstract/paper will be communicated with the corresponding author within a week of submission.

** Completed paper submission is optional. If you want to be considered for the Best Paper Award or your full paper to be included in the conference proceedings in the USB, after submitting your abstract before July 3, 2020, you must also submit your completed (full) paper by July 17, 2020.

Contact

Ugur Can, Director of EBES (ebes@ebesweb.org)
Dr. Ender Demir, Conferene Coordinator of EBES (demir@ebesweb.org)

Eurasia Business and Economics Society

Ends;

Colin Cannonier appointed GLO Country Lead for St. Kitts and Nevis

GLO Fellow Colin Cannonier, Associate Professor at Belmont University, has been appointed GLO Country Lead for St. Kitts and Nevis (a dual-island nation between the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea), where he is a frequent advisor to the government. In 2019, he had delivered a prestigious lecture as the featured speaker at the Annual Prime Minister’s Independence Lecture Series.

  • His research focus is in applied economics with emphasis in health, labor, education, and how they intersect with public policy and economic development.
  • He has authored several peer-reviewed articles in scholarly journals such as Economics of Education Review, Journal of Labor Research, Review of Economics of the Household, and Journal of Demographic Economics.

GLO Fellow Colin Cannonier

Ends;

The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the United States: A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the short-term effects of COVID-19 in the United States: The negative impacts are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less-educated workers, increasing labor market inequalities. Individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are also more affected.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 524, 2020

The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response – Download PDF
by
Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor

GLO Fellows Louis-Philippe Béland & Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID- 19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 in- creased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less-educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, workers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.
SEE FOR MORE DETAILS AND FREE ACCESS TO THE PREPUBLICATION REVISED DRAFT!

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper proposes a novel misclassification-error-adjusted Sahm recession indicator that offers earlier identification of economic recessions.

Photo by Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez on Unsplash

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 523, 2020

Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession – Download PDF
by
Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong

GLO Fellow Shuaizhang Feng & Editor of the Journal of Population Economics

Shuaizhang Feng

Author Abstract: Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The most successful early detector of recessions, the Sahm rule, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to measurement errors in the U.S. labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-error-adjusted Sahm recession indicator and provide empirically-based optimal threshold values. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted Sahm rule offers earlier identification of economic recessions. Based on the newly released U.S. unemployment rate in March 2020, our adjusted Sahm rule diagnoses the U.S. economy is already in recession, while the original Sahm rule does not.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Inward FDI and rural-urban wage inequality: A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the spatial spillover effect of inward FDI on the rural-urban wage inequality. It finds that inward FDI should not be blamed for the exacerbation of rural-urban wage inequality.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 522, 2020

A spatial analysis of inward FDI and rural-urban wage inequality: Evidence from China – Download PDF
by
Wang, Hao & Fidrmuc, Jan & Luo, Qi

GLO Fellow Jan Fidrmuc

Author Abstract: When investigating the relationship between inward FDI and rural-urban inequality, previous studies overlook the inter-regional interactions. Building on the literature that highlights the significant role of rural-urban migration in inequality, this article investigates spatial spillover effect of inward FDI on the rural-urban wage inequality by utilizing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) both in the short run and long run. In particular, we carefully consider the heterogeneity of inward FDI and categorize it with respect to entry modes and sectoral distribution. On the basis of a panel dataset covering 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016, our results show that overall the inward FDI should not be blamed for the exacerbation of rural-urban wage inequality. We do not find significant relationship between inward FDI in secondary and tertiary sector while the FDI in primary sector has a slight negative effect. When we separate the FDI according to entry modes, we find that WFE is shown to have a negative effect on the rural-urban wage inequality and this effect is more pronounced in the long run when we conduct a period average estimation. This change also similarly applies to the equity joint ventures.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

The technological contest between China and the United States. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the proclaimed competition for the world’s leadership in science, technology and innovation between China and the USA.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 521, 2020

The technological contest between China and the United States – Download PDF
by
Toro Hardy, Alfredo

GLO Fellow Alfredo Toro Hardy

Author Abstract: China’s proclaimed aim of becoming the world’s leader in science, technology and innovation by the mid twenty first century has triggered an intense competition with the United States. The latter, feeling threatened in its supremacy in this field, has reacted forcefully. This GLO Discussion Paper examines the nature of this contest, the comparative technological standing of both countries, the pros and cons in this area derived from their respective development models and the plausible outcomes of this competition.

Photo by Alex Knight on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

How do we think the COVID-19 crisis will affect our careers (if any remain)? A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the pessimistic career expectations people currently have due to the corinavirus crisis on the basis of a new survey for Belgium.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 520, 2020

How do we think the COVID-19 crisis will affect our careers (if any remain)? – Download PDF
by
Baert, Stijn & Lippens, Louis & Moens, Eline & Sterkens, Philippe & Weytjens, Johannes

GLO Fellow Stijn Baert

Author Abstract: This study is the first in the world to investigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis on career outcomes and career aspirations. To this end, highquality survey research with a relevant panel of Belgian employees was conducted. About 21% of them fear losing their jobs due to the crisis—14% are concerned that they will even lose their jobs in the near future. In addition, 26% expect to miss out on promotions that they would have received had the COVID-19 crisis not occurred. This fear of a negative impact is higher in vulnerable groups, such migrants. In addition, we observe that many panel members believe they will look at the labour market differently and will have different work-related priorities in the future. In this respect, more than half of the panel members indicate that they have attached more importance to working conditions and work-life balance since the COVID-19 crisis.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Bottom incomes and the measurement of poverty and inequality. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

Incomes in surveys suffer from various measurement problems. A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the main source of negative disposable incomes is negative self-employment income.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 519, 2020

Bottom incomes and the measurement of poverty and inequality – Download PDF
by
Hlasny, Vladimir & Ceriani, Lidia & Verme, Paolo

GLO Fellow Paolo Verme

Author Abstract: Incomes in surveys suffer from various measurement problems, most notably in the tails of their distributions. We study the prevalence of negative and zero incomes, and their implications for inequality and poverty measurement relying on 57 harmonized surveys covering 12 countries over the period 1995-2016. The paper explains the composition and sources of negative and zero incomes and assesses the distributional impacts of alternative correction methods on poverty and inequality measures. It finds that the main source of negative disposable incomes is negative self-employment income, and that high tax, social security withholdings and high self-paid social-security contributions account for negative incomes in some countries. Using detailed information on expenditure, we conclude that households with negative incomes are typically as well off as, or even better, than other households in terms of material wellbeing. By contrast, zero-income households are found to be materially deprived. Adjusting poverty and inequality measures for these findings can alter these measures significantly.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Automation and Demographic Change. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 518, 2020

Automation and Demographic Change – Download PDF
by
Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots.

Photo by Andy Kelly on Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Biomarkers, disability and health care demand. A new GLO Discussion Paper

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that observed income inequality in the access to health care is driven by the fact that higher-income people tend to make greater use of healthcare treatment, for any given health and disability status.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 517, 2020

Biomarkers, disability and health care demand – Download PDF
by
Davillas, Apostolos & Pudney, Stephen

GLO Fellow Apostolos Davillas

Author Abstract: Using longitudinal data from a representative UK panel, we focus on a group of apparently healthy individuals with no history of disability or major chronic health condition at baseline. A latent variable structural equation model is used to analyse the predictive role of latent baseline biological health, indicated by a rich set of biomarkers, and other personal characteristics, in determining the individual’s disability state and health service utilisation five years later. We find that baseline health affects future health service utilisation very strongly, via functional disability as a mediating outcome. Our model reveals that observed income inequality in the access to health care, is driven by the fact that higher-income people tend to make greater use of healthcare treatment, for any given health and disability status. This leads to a slight rise in utilisation with income, despite the lower average need for treatment shown by the negative income gradients for both baseline health and disability outcomes. Factor loadings for latent baseline health show that a broader set of blood-based biomarkers, rather than the current focus mainly on blood pressure, cholesterol and adiposity, may need to be considered for public health screening programs.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A joint European policy response to the corona crisis to strengthen the public sector and restart a more sustainable and social Europe. Jo Ritzen and colleagues in a new UNU-MERIT Discussion Paper and Discussion Event.

There is little doubt that –whatever countries do to fight the virus- the economies of many EU countries will be in serious disarray. It is likely that Governments and the EU in the struggle to regain employment and income will fall back into the “old normal” and put aside their agreed strategies to achieve sustainability and to further a social Europe with a strong public sector.

A vision is presented for an emergence of EU countries out of the crisis with sustainability and with an improvement of the public sector. EU cooperation is a must for that vision, with a commitment of EU countries to the conditionality’s for joint Euro area monetary funding (ECB) and joint Euro area borrowing (though ESM) or joint European borrowing through the EIB or otherwise. These conditionality’s are in terms of a commitment to sustainable development, to improvement of the public sector (health and education), to joint taxation as well as to sound fiscal behavior.

  • A memorandum by Jo Ritzen (together with Javi Lopez, André Knottnerus, Salvador Perez Moreno, George Papandreou and Klaus F. Zimmermann) has just elaborated this in a new UNU-MERIT Working Paper (see online access below).
  • Jo Ritzen has presented the memorandum in a UNU-MERIT seminar in Maastricht on April 23, 2020. His presentation was followed by a discussion prepared by Luc Soete and Bart Verspagen.

Some insights to begin with:

  • The lockdown measures will cause a tremendous recession, much stronger than the global (2007-8) financial crisis with substantial long-term negative consequences for government debt and the flexibility of government activities.
  • The burden for the next generations has therefore substantially increased above the huge challenges already present through climate change, demographic imbalances, global refugee pressures and digitization.
  • The state is back in a dominant role for society and economy, while the end of Schengen and of free labor mobility seem possible (if not even likely).
  • Europe has been largely absent in the initial response to the Corona-crisis leaving the message:  the European Union is superfluous.
  • This is a dangerous development since a strong European collaboration is essential to deal with the challenges and to ensure a healthy and prosperous social and economic development of Europe.
  • The challenge has to be used to foster structural reforms to invest in the future to strengthen education, digital and transportation infrastructure, the healthcare industry, and to handle the challenges of climate change, demography, open labor markets and refugees.

GLO Fellow Jo Ritzen is a Professorial Fellow of UNU-MERIT and its School of Governance. UNU-MERIT is a joint institute of the United Nations University (UNU) and Maastricht University. Ritzen is a former Minister of Education, Culture, and Science of the Netherlands, served in the Dutch Cabinet at the Maastricht Treaty. He is a former Vice President of the World Bank and a former President of Maastricht University.

Taking the challenge: A joint European policy response to the corona crisis to strengthen the public sector and restart a more sustainable and social Europe

Jo Ritzen, Javi Lopez, André Knottnerus, Salvador Perez Moreno, George Papandreou and Klaus F. Zimmermann

UNU-MERIT Discussion Paper No. 2020-015

  • Jo Ritzen, Professor UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University, and GLO Fellow
  • Javi Lopez, Member European Parliament
  • André Knottnerus, former President Scientific Council for Government Policy, the Netherlands and Professor Maastricht University,
  • Salvador Perez Moreno, Professor University of Malaga and GLO Fellow
  • George Papandreou, Member of Parliament, Greece, and Former Prime Minister, Greece,
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann, Professor University of Bonn and UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University, and President, GLO

Ends;

Confronting COVID-19 Myths: Morbidity and Mortality. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper defends the quality of key available coronavirus data: The cross-country correlation between log of tests and log of reported cases (per capita) and the correlation between log of reported cases and log of reported deaths (per capita) are high. It suggests that currently the infection rate in no country is higher than 10% and the fatality rate is at least 0.4%.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 516, 2020

Confronting COVID-19 Myths: Morbidity and Mortality – Download PDF
by
Jelnov, Pavel

GLO Fellow Pavel Jelnov

Author Abstract: COVID-19 mystery feeds the belief that the reported morbidity rates are not related to the true ones and that large parts of the population are already infected, the virus is not very dangerous, and the lockdown is unnecessary. Yet one observes two very strong correlations that disprove this belief. The cross-country correlation between log of tests and log of reported cases (per capita) is 0.87 and the correlation between log of reported cases and log of reported deaths (per capita) is 0.89. Using these correlations, I suggest that the infection rate in no country is higher than 10%. Furthermore, I suggest that the mortality from COVID-19 is at least 0.4%.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

Ends;

The Semicircular Flow of the Data Economy and the Data Sharing Laffer curve: A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper presents a theoretical conceptualization of the data economy: Knowledge extraction from large, inter-connected data sets displays natural monopoly characteristics that generate and disclose the amount of knowledge that maximizes their profit. Provided that monopoly theory holds, this level of knowledge is below the socially desirable amount.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 515, 2020

The Semicircular Flow of the Data Economy and the Data Sharing Laffer curve – Download PDF
by
de Pedraza, Pablo & Vollbracht, Ian

GLO Fellow Pablo de Pedraza

Featured image: Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash

Author Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical conceptualization of the data economy that motivates more access to data for scientific research. It defines the semicircular flow of the data economy as analogous to the traditional circular flow of the economy. Knowledge extraction from large, inter-connected data sets displays natural monopoly characteristics, which favors the emergence of oligopolistic data holders that generate and disclose the amount of knowledge that maximizes their profit. If monopoly theory holds, this level of knowledge is below the socially desirable amount because data holders have incentives to maintain their market power. The analogy is further developed to include data leakages, data sharing policies, merit and demerit knowledge, and knowledge injections. It draws a data sharing Laffer curve that defines optimal data sharing as the point where the production of merit knowledge is maximized. The theoretical framework seems to describe many features of the data-intensive economy of today, in which large-scale data holders specialize in extraction of knowledge from the data they hold. Conclusions support the use of policies to enhance data sharing and, or, enhanced user-centric data property rights to facilitate data flows in a manner that would increase merit knowledge generation up to the socially desirable amount.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Italian Workers at Risk During the Covid-19 Epidemic. A new GLO Discussion Paper.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that in Italy groups at risk of COVID-19 work in sectors that are little exposed to physical proximity, they are currently under lockdown or can work remotely. The sectoral lockdowns put in place by the Italian Government in March 2020 seem to have targeted sectors who operate in physical proximity, but not those directly exposed to infections.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 513, 2020

Italian Workers at Risk During the Covid-19 Epidemic – Download PDF
by
Barbieri, Teresa & Basso, Gaetano & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: We analyse the content of Italian occupations operating in about 600 sectors with a focus on the dimensions that expose workers to contagion risks during the COVID-19 epidemics. To do so we leverage extremely detailed and granular information from ICP, the Italian equivalent of O*Net. We find that several sectors need physical proximity to operate: the workers employed in Italy in sectors whose physical proximity index is above the national average are more than 6.5 million (most of them in retail trade). Groups at risk of contagion and complications from COVID-19 (mainly male above the age of 50) work in sectors that are little exposed to physical proximity, currently under lockdown or can work remotely. The sectoral lockdowns put in place by the Italian Government in March 2020 seem to have targeted sectors who operate in physical proximity, but not those directly exposed to infections (the health industry is not subject to lockdown). Most workers who can operate from home have not been put under lockdown and are currently working. Therefore, the number of workers who are not in workplaces could be up to 3 million higher than those whose sector has been shutdown.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

Ends;

” I fear it will be much worse.” GLO Interview on the #coronavirus with Howard Markel, physician and medical historian at the University of Michigan, who has studied the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the big influenza epidemic of 1918 in the US.

The world still struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis. What is the right strategy with social distancing. Were the huge lockdowns in many states necessary? How to move out of the lockdowns? Read the insights of one of the leading experts on epidemics world-wide.

Some core messages of the interview:

  • Our research showed that those cities that acted early in the big influenza epidemic of 1918, for long periods of time, and used several non-pharmaceutical interventions saw far lower rates of influenza cases and deaths compared to the cities that failed to take such measures or took them too late.
  • I do not believe letting the virus run wild to achieve herd immunity and leaving things wide open, as in Sweden, is a good idea.
  • In the fog of war it is always hard to gather good data.
  • We are all flying by the seat of our pants and making best guesstimates.
  • At least in the US, we are not there yet to terminate the widespread lockdowns.
  • I fear that CoVID-19 will be much worse than the influenza epidemic of 1918.

Howard Markel, M.D., Ph.D. is the George E. Wantz, M.D. Distinguished Professor of the History of Medicine and Director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan.  He is also Professor of Pediatrics; Psychiatry; Public Health Management and Policy; History; and English Literature and Language.

He is the pre-eminent social and cultural historian of medicine, public health, and epidemics in the world. Author of 11 books and has contributed over 500 articles, reviews, essays and book chapters to a wide range of scholarly publications and popular periodicals. He has made hundreds of contributions for the media and is a prominent policy advisor.

More details about his expertise on epidemics below the interview. Full Bio.

Photo by Leisa Thompson

Interview

GLO: As a medical historian, you are one of the leading experts who have studied the big influenza epidemic of 1918: What can we learn from your research?
Markel H, Lipman HB, Navarro JA, et al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic. JAMA. 2007;298(6):644–654. doi:10.1001/jama.298.6.644

Howard Markel: In 2007, my colleagues and I at the University of Michigan Center for the History of Medicine and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) taken in the U.S. during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, which killed, at least, 40 million people around the globe and 500,000 to 750,000 Americans. We evaluated the public health efforts of 43 large cities that implemented some combination of commonly used NPIs:

1) isolating the ill or suspected cases in hospitals or at home;
2) banning public gatherings and in some cases, shutting down roads and railways; and
3) closing schools.

What we discovered was quite remarkable. Many cities acted early, meaning they pulled the levers to shut the gates of their city before the virus reached what is called an inflection point and spread widely causing hundreds if not more cases per day. We estimated that rate to be twice the normally expected number of cases of influenza in that city at that time, based on the previous year’s statistics.

Those cities that acted early, for long periods of time, and used more than one NPIs saw far lower rates of influenza cases and deaths compared to the cities that failed to take such measures or took them too late —after the virus had a chance to spread through the community.

GLO: Social distancing as a concept is applied to some extent in most countries, but was the complete lockdown of societies and economies really necessary? Why are e.g. the policies applied in South Korea and Sweden wrong?

Howard Markel: Early action is the key, of course, because these measures do not cure or prevent the spread of a virus. They only buy time, so that hospitals are not overrun with sick people and, perhaps, modern medicine can manufacture effective anti-viral drugs, treatments, or a vaccine. And because these measures are extremely disruptive to society, they should be employed only as a last resort and only for highly lethal and easily transmissible infections. When is meant by the phrase “last resort,” is that all other measures leading up to such socially disruptive NPIs do not seem to work elsewhere and we are dealing with an epidemics that has an especially high case fatality rate (number of deaths divided by total number of cases).

In 1918, the case fatality rate (CFR) was 2.5% (and in some countries such as India, over 10%), which is staggering compared to seasonal flu case fatality rates of about 0.1%.  The 1918 pandemic that merited the most draconian of measures and it is important to note, they had no other tools to use, no antibiotics or antivirals, no vaccines, not even IV fluids.  Right now, we are estimating relatively high CFR’s for CoVID-19, but are unsure of the precise number because while deaths are easy to quantify, the total number of cases is unclear—especially those with mild cases that do not see their doctor.  We need better testing to be sure but given how sick CoVID-19 makes people and the number of deaths we are seeing, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.

I do not believe letting the virus run wild to achieve herd immunity and leaving things wide open, as in Sweden, is a good idea given how many people with co-morbid diseases are at risk to get very sick and die.  In 2020, there are many people living with cancer, AIDS, heart disease and other serious illnesses who would never be alive in 1918. These people are at serious risk of dying of CoVID-19 herd immunity, meaning 90% or more of a community is immune to a virus to prevent further spread of an epidemic disease, is best achieved by universal vaccination.

And a huge problem with CoVID-19 is that we have never experienced an epidemic with this particular virus and we do not yet have a stable case fatality rate to make good judgments.  Hence, the policies we do develop are likely to be influenced by the adage, better safe than sorry.  As such, we should not grouse about calls made “too early,” in the cause of fighting what may be a deadly epidemic.

GLO: Now we are in the middle of the fog, and it is difficult to know when to move back to some normal. Why are the statistics we have to rely on world-wide of so low quality?

Howard Markel: Precisely because we are in the fog of war and it is always hard to gather good data on the epidemic disease in question.  

GLO: How long does it take to see the effects of public measures in the statistics?

Howard Markel: We should have better data in the coming weeks, late in the epidemic curve of each city, state or province, and country.  But we are all flying by the seat of our pants and making best guesstimates based on a great deal of epidemiological data, modeling data and clinical information.

GLO: What could be the statistical indicator to decide on the termination of the widespread lockdowns?

Howard Markel: That’s the million dollar question.  We don’t have a precise time to do this even though we know it needs to be late in the epidemic curve, not when cases are doubling every day, but instead are only popping up on a much more slow basis. We also need far more test kits to be able to contact trace the new cases and implement quarantine and isolation procedures for them. Simply put, at least in the US, we’re not there yet.

GLO: Why is New York the center of the epidemic in the US?

Howard Markel: Well, it’s the largest city in the world; it was late to implement social distancing measures, compared to other American cities and states; people live in crowded conditions—especially the poor—and then there is the mass transit system where people travel cheek by jowl on subways.  These are just a few speculations but it has been sad to see how seriously my beloved New York City has been affected. 

GLO: Moving outside of your territory as a historian, what do you speculate: Will we consider in some decades the coronavirus comparable to the influenza epidemic of 1918?

Howard Markel: To be honest, I fear it will be much worse.  Let me put it this way, it will certainly keep historians of epidemics busy for many, many years!

GLO: Thank you very much for these insights!

*************
With Howard Markel spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President on April 18, 2020. Both have been Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Fellows in 2017.
Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

Review of epidemics-related work of Howard Markel

Dr. Markel is the author, co-author, or co-editor of eleven books including the award-winning Quarantine!  East European Jewish Immigrants and the New York City Epidemics of 1892 (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997; paperback, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999) and When Germs Travel: Six Major Epidemics That Have Invaded America Since 1900 and the Fears They Have Unleashed (Pantheon Books/Alfred A. Knopf, 2004; paperback Vintage/Random House, 2005).

From 2005 to 2006, Professor Markel served as a historical consultant on pandemic influenza preparedness planning for the United States Department of Defense.  From 2006 to 2015, he served as the principal historical consultant on pandemic preparedness for the Division of Global Migration and Quarantine of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  From late April 2009 to February 2011, he served as a member of the CDC Director’s “Novel A/H1N1 Influenza Team B”, a real-time think tank of experts charged with evaluating the federal government’s and President Barack Obama’s influenza policies on a daily basis during and after the outbreak.  His historical research has played a pivotal role in developing the evidence base for many community mitigation strategies employed by the World Health Organization, the CDC, the Mexican Ministry of Health, and numerous state, provincial and municipal health departments around the globe during the 2009 influenza pandemic.

In collaboration with colleagues at the University of Michigan and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Markel is Co-Editor-in-Chief of The 1918-1919 American Influenza Pandemic: A Digital Encyclopedia and Archive, which was first published in 2012 by the University of Michigan Center for the History of Medicine and the University of Michigan Scholarly Publications Office.  Funded by grants and contracts from the CDC, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the National Endowment for the Humanities, the digital encyclopedia represents one of the largest collections of historical documents ever assembled on a single epidemic and is accessible on the Internet at: www.influenzaarchive.org. The second edition of the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: A Digital Encyclopedia and Archive 2.0 was released in 2016 and a third edition is now in preparation. 

During the Ebola epidemic of 2014, he was a much sought-after expert on the history of epidemics and quarantines.  Aside from wide press coverage, in the form of interviews, and his contributing several influential op-eds for the New Republic and Reuters Opinion, Professor Markel was the lead interview on NPR’s All Things Considered, BBC World Service, CNN/Sanjay Gupta MD, and PBS NewsHour. Dr. Markel’s landmark scholarship on the tangled history of stigma, politics and contagion was also lauded on the front page of The New Yorker, (Talk of the Town/Comment, November 10, 2014). In the aftermath of the Ebola crisis, in February of 2015, the Presidential (Barack Obama) Commission on Bioethical Issues invited him to consult on the ethical issues surrounding the stigma of epidemic and infectious diseases.

More recently, Dr. Markel played a prominent role in evaluating public health and social distancing policies as they played out in China and around the world during the CoVID-19, or coronavirus, epidemic of 2019-2020.  His pioneering 2007-2009 research on the use of community mitigation strategies for influence pandemics was the driving and life-saving force behind the entire global policy to CoVID-19.

On March 11, 2020, Nicholas Kristof, the eminent columnist for the New York Times cited Dr. Markel and his research team’s work as one of the “12 Steps to Tackle the Coronavirus.”  On April 1, 2020, he was the subject of a New Yorker magazine profile, “A Medical Historian on Why We Must Stay the Course in Fighting the Coronavirus.” At the National Academy of Medicine CoVid-19 briefing on March 25, 2020, he was “widely credited with coining the term flattening the curve.”  On April 6, 2020, Google honored the concept of “flattening the curve,” which he helped coin and scientifically demonstrate, by making it the first in a series of @GoogleDoodles for CoVid-19, on its masthead, dedicated “to public health workers and to researchers in the scientific community” during the crisis.  On April 16, in response to those wanting a lifting of the state’s CoVid-19 lockdown, Governor Gretchen Whitmer cited Dr. Markel’s non-pharmaceutical intervention research as the evidence base for her social distancing policies for the State of Michigan.

Markel’s two prominently run “Op-Ed” essays on the Chinese quarantine and containment strategies in Wuhan ran back-to-back in the Washington Post (January 26, 2020) and the New York Times (January 27, 2020) and were translated into multiple languages overseas, for the Chinese, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian, and Polish press. He discussed the impact of modern technology and connectivity on pandemics in an opinion essay for WIRED on March 4, 2020.  A highly influential Op-Ed essay on the importance of early school closures as a community mitigation strategy for CoVid-19 appeared online in the New York Times on March 6, 2020 and in print on March 9, 2020. Within a few days of its publication, school districts across the nation shut their doors. He also wrote important op-eds on the use of face masks, for NBC Think (April 3, 2020) and lessons from the 1918 influenza pandemic for The Washington Post (April 8, 2020). Professor Markel was also extensively interviewed about CoVID-19 for hundreds of stories and updates.

Research also of interest in this context:

J Alexander Navarro, Katrin Kohl, Martin Cetron & Howard Markel
A Tale of Many Cities: A Contemporary Historical Study of the Implementation of School Closures during the 2009 pA(H1N1) Influenza Pandemic
Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, Vol. 41, No. 3, June 2016, 393-421.
DOI 10.1215/03616878-3523958

Brian M. Davis, Howard Markel, Alex Navarro, Eden Wells, Arnold S. Monto  & Allison E. Aiello
The Effect of Reactive School Closure on Community Influenza-Like Illness Counts in the State of Michigan During the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol. 60, Issue 12, 15 June 2015, Pages e90–e97. DOI.org/10.1093/cid/civ182

Ends;

Interview with Development Economist Asad Islam of Monash University about the challenges of the #coronacrisis for developing economies

The world still struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis. The developed world was affected first, but the forthcoming consequences for the developing countries may be much worse. Some insights from an interview with development economist Asad Islam of Monash University, Australia.

Some core messages of the interview:

  • The impact of COVID-19 is likely to be more severe in developing countries than in developed countries.
  • A temporary lockdown makes it possible to alert people that this is a serious health issue and everybody needs to protect themselves as much as possible.
  • Most developing countries have the capacity to provide three meals a day for its poorest population.
  • Developing countries need to allow their people to leave the lockdown earlier.
  • Our proposal for India suggested a broad-based transfer system, targeting more on poor people and increase the global fiscal stimulus substantially.
  • The pandemic is of more serious concern than initially thought.
  • Issues previously considered to be local ones are now recognized to be of global relevance and have to be addressed by global collaborations.

GLO Fellow Asad Islam is a Professor at the Department of Economics, and Director of the Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) at the Faculty of Business and Economics at Monash University, Australia.

Interview

GLO: What is different with COVID-19 in a developing country than in a developed country?

Asad Islam: In developing countries, we see poorer health infrastructure such as a severe lack of hospital beds, intensive care units are not equipped with proper facilities for COVID-19 patients, missing trained nurses and doctors, lack of awareness among masses of people. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 is likely to be more severe in developing countries than in developed countries.

GLO: Is there no alternative to a complete lockdown of society and economy?

Asad Islam: The temporary lockdown in a developing country is a necessary evil to raise awareness about COVID-19. Social distancing won’t work without it. People have now almost stopped going to temple, mosque, church or social gatherings. This won’t happen without a lockdown! Lockdown needs to be temporary with gradual withdrawal (because of concerns for the poor) while making sure that the people try to maintain social distance (1.5 meter), and wear masks. A temporary lockdown makes it possible to alert people that this is a serious health issue and everybody needs to protect themselves as much as possible.

GLO: But unlike in developed countries, it seems very difficult for the government to financially support people. How can they survive?

Asad Islam: Most developing countries have the capacity to provide safety nets (e.g., providing three meals a day) for its poorest segments of the population. The problem is not lack of resources, but absence of mechanisms to reach the food to these poor people. The food distribution system could be made fairer even within this short period of time and most poor people can be brought under a direct transfer system. Of course, the pressure on the government is huge for maintaining this over a longer period. However, supporting its needy 30-40 percent of the population for 3-6 months using a public food distribution system is not an impossible job. International organizations such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank can also play a supportive role in ensuring this, particularly in countries where we see a serious lack of resources.

GLO: Lockdowns need to end at some time and one needs good statistics. What to do?

Asad Islam: We need to flatten the curve in developing countries, which means one needs to wait when the number of cases is rising rapidly. While the developed country can wait till there is no new case, in developing countries that would be very hard to achieve considering the economic hardship of poor people. One option is to allow the people to start working (for temporary period) who test negative, and younger people (age 20-50) if they do not have any major pre-existing condition.

GLO: With some colleagues you have recently proposed a strategy for India (see for a media report and the full memorandum). What is the message?

Asad Islam: Our main point was to have a broad-based transfer system, targeting more on poor people to enable them to cope with hardship during the lockdown, and increase the fiscal stimulus in manifold to address the economic woes of people.

GLO: Have economists underestimated the dangers of this pandemic?

Asad Islam: I think there were not enough data to begin with, and as it now stands both the number of infection cases and deaths were not reported accurately. As economists rely mostly on numbers there was more support for herd immunity in the beginning as the death rate was very low. However, as more accurate data are coming and we observe higher rate of deaths/infections we have now started to realize that the pandemic is of more serious concern on both health and economic grounds than initially thought.

GLO: How will the coronavirus change development economics?

Asad Islam: The world should now realize more that there are many issues we should not ignore, issues which sometimes we perceive to be the problem of a country or region only. Many problems including poverty and climate change need to be tackled globally and developed countries have more obligations to address them. The global public health issue will remain a serious concern in the coming years, and the problems of developing countries need to be better understood to address these challenges.

*************
With Asad Islam spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President on April 18, 2020.
Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.

Ends;