A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the recent increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility in Italy.
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GLO Discussion Paper No. 745, 2021
Immigrant Supply of Marketable Child Care and Native Fertility in Italy – Download PDF
by Mariani, R. D. & Rosati, F. C.
GLO Fellows Rama Dasi Mariani and Furio Camillo Rosati
Author Abstract: The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of low-skilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if the flow of immigrants as actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants – many of them specialized in the supply of child care – arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that newly arrived immigrant female workers have increased the number of native births by roughly 2 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility choice.
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