Category Archives: Post-22

Accuracy of self-reported private health insurance coverage. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Francis Mitrou and GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen, Huong Le & Luke Connelly.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that in Australia reporting errors are systematically correlated with individual and household characteristics, which is supportive of common reasons for misreporting. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1215, 2022

Accuracy of self-reported private health insurance coverage – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke & Mitrou, Francis

GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen, Huong Le & Luke Connelly

Author Abstract: Popular approaches to building data from unstructured text come with limitations, such as scalability, interpretability, replicability, and real-world applicability. These can be overcome with Context Rule Assisted Machine Learning (CRAML), a method and no-code suite of software tools that builds structured, labeled datasets which are accurate and reproducible. CRAML enables domain experts to access uncommon constructs within a document corpus in a low-resource, transparent, and flexible manner. CRAML produces document-level datasets for quantitative research and makes qualitative classification schemes scalable over large volumes of text. We demonstrate that the method is useful for bibliographic analysis, transparent analysis of proprietary data, and expert classification of any documents with any scheme. To demonstrate this process for building data from text with Machine Learning, we publish open-source resources: the software, a new public document corpus, and a replicable analysis to build an interpretable classifier of suspected “no poach” clauses in franchise documents.

Featured image: Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Creating Data from Unstructured Text with Context Rule Assisted Machine Learning (CRAML). A new GLO Discussion Paper by Stephen Meisenbacher & GLO Fellow Peter Norlander.

A new GLO Discussion Paper demonstrates that CRAML produces document-level datasets for quantitative research and makes qualitative classification schemes scalable over large volumes of text.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1214, 2022

Creating Data from Unstructured Text with Context Rule Assisted Machine Learning (CRAML) – Download PDF
by Meisenbacher, Stephen & Norlander, Peter

GLO Fellow Peter Norlander

Author Abstract: Popular approaches to building data from unstructured text come with limitations, such as scalability, interpretability, replicability, and real-world applicability. These can be overcome with Context Rule Assisted Machine Learning (CRAML), a method and no-code suite of software tools that builds structured, labeled datasets which are accurate and reproducible. CRAML enables domain experts to access uncommon constructs within a document corpus in a low-resource, transparent, and flexible manner. CRAML produces document-level datasets for quantitative research and makes qualitative classification schemes scalable over large volumes of text. We demonstrate that the method is useful for bibliographic analysis, transparent analysis of proprietary data, and expert classification of any documents with any scheme. To demonstrate this process for building data from text with Machine Learning, we publish open-source resources: the software, a new public document corpus, and a replicable analysis to build an interpretable classifier of suspected “no poach” clauses in franchise documents.

Featured image: Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross-Sections. A new GLO Discussion paper by GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw.

A new GLO Discussion Paper develops and evaluates a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1213, 2022

Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross-Sections – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw, Peter F.

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. Validation using Monte Carlo simulations and real cross-sectional and actual panel survey data-from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions-perform well under various deviations from model assumptions. The method could also inform investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.

Featured image: Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Inequality and Public Pension Entitlements. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Eva Sierminska & Marcin Wroński.

A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that wealth inequality is significantly reduced after accounting for public pension wealth. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1212, 2022

Inequality and Public Pension Entitlements – Download PDF
by Sierminska, Eva & Wroński, Marcin

GLO Fellows Eva Sierminska & Marcin Wroński

Eva Sierminska

Author Abstract: The literature on wealth inequality is expanding very fast. Wealth is usually more concentrated than income. However, traditional measures of wealth inequality are based only on private wealth, and thus exclude public pension entitlements. In this chapter, the literature on the impact of public pension entitlements on wealth inequality is discussed. Empirical research shows, that wealth inequality is significantly reduced after accounting for public pension wealth. The value of Gini index is usually reduced by 20 – 40%.

Featured image: mark-timberlake-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Performance-related Pay and the UK Gender Pay Gap. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Melanie Jones and GLO Fellow Ezgi Kaya.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the gender gap in this pay is making a larger contribution than many work-related characteristics routinely included in studies of this nature.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1211, 2022

Performance-related Pay and the UK Gender Pay Gap – Download PDF
by Jones, Melanie & Kaya, Ezgi

GLO Fellow Ezgi Kaya

Ezgi Kaya

Author Abstract: This paper explores the role of performance-related pay to the UK gender pay gap at the mean and across the earnings distribution. Applying decomposition methods to data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, we find that performance-related pay is an important but neglected factor, with the lower probability of females being employed in performance-related pay jobs explaining 12 per cent of the observed mean gender pay gap and making a larger contribution than many work-related characteristics routinely included in studies of this nature. Driven by its influence in the private sector, employment in performance-related pay jobs is more important in explaining the gender pay gap at the top end of the wage distribution, consistent with gender differences in receipt of bonus payments. Gender differences in the reward to performance-related pay jobs have a further, but more modest, role in widening the national and private sector mean gender pay gap.

Featured image: dainis-graveris-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Collective emotions and macro-level shocks: COVID-19 vs the Ukrainian war. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Stephanie Rossouw and Talita Greyling.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the same collective emotions are evoked following similar patterns over time regardless of whether it is a health or a war shock. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1210, 2022

Collective emotions and macro-level shocks: COVID-19 vs the Ukrainian war – Download PDF
by Rossouw, Stephanié & Greyling, Talita

GLO Fellows Stephanie Rossouw and Talita Greyling

Author Abstract: We know that when collective emotions are prolonged, it leads not only to action (which could be negative) but also to the formation of identity, culture, or an emotional climate. Therefore, policymakers must understand how collective emotions react to macro-level shocks to mitigate potentially violent and destructive outcomes. Given the above, our paper’s main aim is to determine the effect of macro-level shocks on collective emotions and the various stages they follow. To this end, we analyse the temporal evolution of different emotions from pre to post two different types of macro-level shocks; lockdown, a government-implemented regulation brought on by COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine. A secondary aim is to use narrative analysis to understand the public perceptions and concerns that lead to the observed emotional changes. To achieve these aims, we use a unique time series dataset derived from extracting tweets in real-time, filtering on specific keywords related to lockdowns (COVID-19) and the Ukrainian war for ten countries. Applying Natural Language Processing, we obtain these tweets underlying emotion scores and derive daily time series data per emotion. We compare the different emotional time series data to a counterfactual to derive changes from the norm. Additionally, we use topic modelling to explain the emotional changes. We find that the same collective emotions are evoked following similar patterns over time regardless of whether it is a health or a war shock. Specifically, we find fear is the predominant emotion before the shocks, and anger leads the emotions after the shocks, followed by sadness and fear.

Featured image: Stijn-Swinnen-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

EU-induced Financialisation and Its Impact on the Greek Wage Share, 1999-2021. A new GLO Discussion paper by GLO Fellow Giorgos Gouzoulis and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that financialisation is a key driver of wage bargaining outcomes.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1209, 2022

EU-induced Financialisation and Its Impact on the Greek Wage Share, 1999-2021 – Download PDF
by Gouzoulis, Giorgos & Iliopoulos, Panagiotis & Galanis, Giorgos

GLO Fellow Giorgos Gouzoulis

Giorgos Gouzoulis

Author Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of the income share of wage earners in the non-financial, private sectors of Greece since its introduction to the Eurozone in 1999. The main outcome of the integration of Greece into the Eurozone has been the financialisation of its economy, which has been particularly influential for households since it led to the rapid rise of household indebtedness. Building on recent research within industrial relations, sociology of work, and political economy, which shows that financialisation is a key driver of wage bargaining outcomes, we demonstrate that the relative size of the FIRE sectors and the increase in household debt have been negative drivers of the wage share in Greece over the last 22 years. Our findings also suggest that the employment-tied social benefits system and tertiary education provision have also been important determinants of workers’ income share.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Revisiting SME default predictors: The Omega Score. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Stjepan Srhoj and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the incorporation of change in management, employee turnover, and mean employee tenure significantly improve the model’s predictive accuracy.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1207, 2022

Revisiting SME default predictors: The Omega Score – Download PDF
by Altman, Edward I. & Balzano, Marco & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Srhoj, Stjepan

GLO Fellow Stjepan Srhoj

Stjepan Srhoj

Author Abstract: SME default prediction is a long-standing issue in the finance and management literature. Proper estimates of the SME risk of failure can support policymakers in implementing restructuring policies, rating agencies and credit analytics firms in assessing creditworthiness, public and private investors in allocating funds, entrepreneurs in accessing funds, and managers in developing effective strategies. Drawing on the extant management literature, we argue that introducing management- and employee-related variables into SME prediction models can improve their predictive power. To test our hypotheses, we use a unique sample of SMEs and propose a novel and more accurate predictor of SME default, the Omega Score, developed by the Least Absolute Shortage and Shrinkage Operator (LASSO). Results were further confirmed through other machine-learning techniques. Beyond traditional financial ratios and payment behavior variables, our findings show that the incorporation of change in management, employee turnover, and mean employee tenure significantly improve the model’s predictive accuracy.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Capturing the Educational and Economic Impacts of School Closures in Poland. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Harry Patrinos and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the learning loss during the Covid-19 lockdown was equal to more than one year of study.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1206, 2022

Capturing the Educational and Economic Impacts of School Closures in Poland Download PDF
by Gajderowicz, Tomasz & Jakubowski, Maciej & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Wrona, Sylwia

GLO Fellow Harry Patrinos

Author Abstract: The effect of school closures in the spring of 2020 on the math, science, and reading skills of secondary school students in Poland is estimated. The COVID-19-induced school closures lasted 26 weeks in Poland, one of Europe’s longest periods of shutdown. Comparison of the learning outcomes with pre- and post-COVID-19 samples shows that the learning loss was equal to more than one year of study. Assuming a 45-year working life of the total affected population, the economic loss in future student earnings may amount to 7.2 percent of Poland’s gross domestic product.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Health shocks and spousal labor supply. Access to new article in the Journal of Population Economics by GLO Fellows Nicholas A. Jolly & Nikolaos Theodoropoulos.

Jolly, N.A., Theodoropoulos, N. Health shocks and spousal labor supply: an international perspective. J Popul Econ (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00929-7

To READ: https://rdcu.be/c10zG

NikosTheodoropoulos

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

Ends;

Air Pollution and Entrepreneurship. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Liwen Guo, Zhiming Cheng, Massimiliano Tani & Xi Chen and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that suggests that exposure to higher intensity of air pollution in China lowers one’s proclivity for entrepreneurship.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1208, 2022

Air Pollution and Entrepreneurship Download PDF
by Guo, Liwen & Cheng, Zhiming & Tani, Massimiliano & Cook, Sarah & Zhao, Jiaqi & Chen, Xi

GLO Fellows Liwen Guo, Zhiming Cheng, Massimiliano Tani & Xi Chen

Author Abstract: We examine the causal effect of air pollution on an individual’s propensity for entrepreneurship in China. Our preferred model, which employs an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity arising from sorting into entrepreneurship and locational choices, suggests that exposure to higher intensity of air pollution lowers one’s proclivity for entrepreneurship. A one standard deviation increase in air pollution leads to a 21.2% decrease in the propensity for entrepreneurship. We also find that self-efficacy is a channel in the relationship between air pollution and entrepreneurship. In addition, education moderates the relationship between air pollution and self-efficacy.

Featured image: Ella-Ivanescu-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Okun’s Law: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTE) on Spanish regions. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Ángel L. Martín-Román & colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the law remains valid

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1205, 2022

Okun’s Law: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTE) on Spanish regions – Download PDF
by Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Dueñas Fernández, Diego & Llorente Heras, Raquel

GLO Fellow Ángel L. Martín-Román

Ángel L. Martín-Román

Author Abstract: Official statistics indicated a break in Okun’s law in all the Spanish regions due to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, herein, evidence of the validity of the law is shown. The temporary layoff procedures (ERTE) allowed many workers to maintain their jobs. From the productive point of view, the law remained in effect in the regions, showing a strong relationship between idle labour resources and economic activity, and from the social point of view, the apparent breakdown of the law can be interpreted as the implementation of a policy that mitigated the dramatic impact of the economic crisis.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Moving Up the Social Ladder? Wages of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants from Developing Countries. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Kevin Pineda-Hernández and GLO Fellows François Rycx & Melanie Volral.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that, whereas first-generation immigrants born in developing countries still experience a sizeable wage gap, there is no evidence for such a gap for their second-generation peers. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1204, 2022

Moving Up the Social Ladder? Wages of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants from Developing Countries – Download PDF
by Pineda-Hernández, Kevin & Rycx, François & Volral, Mélanie

GLO Fellows François Rycx & Melanie Volral

Author Abstract: As immigrants born in developing countries and their descendants represent a growing share of the working-age population in the developed world, their labour market integration constitutes a key factor for fostering economic development and social cohesion. Using a granular, matched employer-employee database of 1.3 million observations between 1999 and 2016, our weighted multilevel log-linear regressions first indicate that in Belgium, the overall wage gap between workers born in developed countries and workers originating from developing countries remains substantial: it reaches 15.7% and 13.5% for first- and second-generation immigrants, respectively. However, controlling for a wide range of observables (e.g. age, tenure, education, type of contract, occupation, firm-level collective agreement, firm fixed effects), we find that, whereas first-generation immigrants born in developing countries still experience a sizeable adjusted wage gap (2.7%), there is no evidence of an adjusted wage gap for their second-generation peers. Moreover, our reweighted, recentered influence function Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions agree with these findings. Indeed, while the overall wage gap for first-generation immigrants born in developing countries is driven by unfavourable human capital, low-paying occupational/sectoral characteristics, and a wage structure effect (e.g. wage discrimination), the wage gap for their second-generation peers is essentially explained by the fact that they are younger and have less tenure than workers born in developed countries. Furthermore, our results emphasize the significant moderating role of geographical origin, gender, and position in the wage distribution.

Featured image: joshua-hoehne-on-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Nowcasting national GDP growth using small business sales growth. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Cahit Guven.

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that small business sales growth data can be used to predict the same period’s nominal gross domestic product growth in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1203, 2022

Nowcasting national GDP growth using small business sales growth – Download PDF
by Guven, Cahit

GLO Fellow Cahit Guven

Author Abstract: This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) monthly sales growth data can be used to predict the same period’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth (year-on-year) in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.1 Assuming that the small business sector can be used as a representative sample of the national economy,2 this paper presents simple equations relating the small business real-time sales growth to GDP growth indicators. One of the frustrations of GDP measurement is that it takes statistical offices many weeks to collate GDP data. This means it is often released months after the end of the relevant time period. The relationship with XSBI sales growth data, which is published more timely, could prove useful for economists and analysts as an early indication of GDP results weeks ahead of the release of official data. This analysis does not relate to using XSBI data to forecast future GDP. Rather it is to take advantage of the timeliness of XSBI data, over the national accounts release, and provide an early indication of the GDP data after the end of the relevant month/quarter but before the official GDP data is released.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

The empirics of technology, employment and occupations: lessons learned and challenges ahead. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Fabio Montobbio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito & Marco Vivarelli.

A new GLO Discussion Paper outlines the many lessons learned and the open challenges.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1202, 2022

The empirics of technology, employment and occupations: lessons learned and challenges ahead – Download PDF
by Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco

GLO Fellows Fabio Montobbio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito & Marco Vivarelli

Author Abstract: What have we learned, from the most recent years of debate and analysis, of the future of work being threatened by technology? This paper presents a critical review of the empirical literature and outlines both lessons learned and challenges ahead. Far from being fully exhaustive, the review intends to highlight common findings and main differences across economic studies. According to our reading of the literature, a few challenges-and also the common factors affecting heterogeneous outcomes across studies-still stand, including (i) the variable used as a proxy for technology, (ii) the level of aggregation of the analyses, (iii) the deep heterogeneity of different types of technologies and their adopted mix, (iv) the structural differences across adopters, and (v) the actual combination of the organisational practices in place at the establishment level in affecting net job creation/destruction and work reorganisation.

Featured image: Alex-Knight-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Epictetusian Rationality. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Gregory Ponthiere.

A new GLO Discussion Paper outlines that Epictetusian rationality provides a basis for mental freedom and happiness, and excludes the existence of prisoner’s dilemmas.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1201, 2022

Epictetusian Rationality – Download PDF
by Ponthiere, Gregory

GLO Fellow Gregory Ponthiere

Gregory Ponthiere

Author Abstract: According to Epictetus, mental freedom and happiness can be achieved by distinguishing between, on the one hand, things that are upon our control (our acts, opinions and desires), and, on the other hand, things that are not upon our control (our body, property, offi ces and reputation), and by wishing for nothing that is outside our control. This article proposes two accounts of Epictetus’s precept: the I account of Epictetus’s precept requires indifference between outcomes differing only on circumstances, whereas the IB account requires indifference between outcomes involving the best replies to circumstances. We study the implications of these precepts on the preference relation and on the existence of Epictetusian rationality. The I account implies that the preference relation satisfies in- dependence of circumstances, whereas the IB account implies robustness to dominated alternatives. Unlike the IB account, the I account rules out (counter)adaptive preferences. Finally, when examining game-theoretical implications of Epictetusian rationality, we show that the two accounts of Epictetus’s precept exclude the existence of prisoner’s dilemmas.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Contact Intensity, Unemployment and Finite Change – The Case of Entertainment Sector under Pandemic: A General Equilibrium Approach. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Sugata Marjit and GLO Fellow Gouranga Das.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the pandemic leads to vanishing occupations, underemployment and the elimination of fixed wage contracts.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1200, 2022

Contact Intensity, Unemployment and Finite Change – The Case of Entertainment Sector under Pandemic: A General Equilibrium Approach – Download PDF
by Marjit, Sugata & Das, Gouranga

GLO Fellow Gouranga Das

Gouranga Das

Author Abstract: This paper explores the short run, medium run and long run impact of pandemic on the contact intensive entertainment industry in terms of a simple general equilibrium model that can accommodate for unemployment and underemployment. Finite change as a response to large shocks may lead to n this industry, even when pandemic is over and leads to underemployment. Pandemic tends to eliminate fixed wage contracts in this sector for its survival, but over the longer run affects fundamental occupational choice in a society.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Industrial Relations and Unemployment Benefit Schemes in the Visegrad Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Martin Kahanec and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that state control over social policy remained very strong and shaped the dynamics of industrial relations.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1199, 2022

Industrial Relations and Unemployment Benefit Schemes in the Visegrad Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic – Download PDF
by Lukáčová, Katarína & Kováčová, Lucia & Kahanec, Martin

GLO Fellow Martin Kahanec

Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic and technological adjustment increased the risk of unemployment, underemployment and skills mismatch across Europe. These increased risks highlighted the importance of national unemployment benefit schemes for income security. This article examines the role of industrial relations in shaping unemployment benefit regimes in the Visegrad countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopted an actor-oriented approach based on desk research and 12 semi-structured interviews with the representatives of trade unions and employers in all the Visegrad countries. Our research showed that the capacities of the trade unions and employers’ associations to shape the unemployment benefit regimes were rather limited. State control over social policy remained very strong and shaped the dynamics of industrial relations, without inclusive involvement of social partners. National governments sought to implement measures to protect employment (mainly wage subsidies), rather than to reform existing unemployment support regimes.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Call for Papers – Lofoten International Symposium on Inequality and Taxation in June 2023 in Norway. Submission deadline December 15, 2022.

The Lofoten International Symposium on Inequality and Taxation (LISIT) will take place at the Scandic Svolvær hotel, in the attractive Lofoten islands, Norway, on Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th June 2023. The symposium will focus on the intertwined fields of economic inequality and taxation.

The symposium is jointly organized by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Roma Tre University, University College London CCSEE, and it is funded by the Research Council of Norway, with additional financial support provided by the Department of Law at the University of Roma Tre. GLO Fellow and GLO Country Lead Norway Roberto Iacono is involved in the organization of the event.

We invite submissions from interested researchers on any topic within the area of inequality and taxation. The deadline for submission (full papers, or extended abstract no shorter than 2 pages) is 23:59 CET on Thursday, 15th December 2022. Submissions must be done electronically using the following email: lisit2023@isa.ntnu.no.

Authors of submitted papers will be notified on the 1st February 2023. There will be no fees for presenters, and the symposium will cover 2 nights at Scandic Svolvær, lunch and coffee breaks, as well as the conference dinner on June 27th. However, presenters will be required to arrange and cover their own travel.

Featured image: Taxes-the-new-york-public-library-unsplash

Ends;

The Impact of Immigration and Integration Policies On Immigrant-Native Labor Market Hierarchies. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec and Lucia Mýtna Kureková.

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that designing less restrictive policies may help mitigate immigrant-native labor market hierarchies.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1198, 2022

The Impact of Immigration and Integration Policies On Immigrant-Native Labor Market Hierarchies – Download PDF
by Guzi, Martin & Kahanec, Martin & Mýtna Kureková, Lucia

GLO Fellows Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec

Author Abstract: Across European Union (EU) labor markets, immigrant and native populations exhibit disparate labor market outcomes, signifying widespread labor market hierarchies. While significant resources have been invested in migration and integration policies, it remains unclear whether these contribute to or mitigate labor market hierarchies between natives and immigrants. Using a longitudinal model based on individual-level EU LFS and country-level DEMIG POLICY and POLMIG databases, we explore variation in changes of immigration and integration policies across Western EU member states to study how they are associated with labor market hierarchies in terms of unemployment and employment quality gaps between immigrant and native populations. Our findings imply that designing less restrictive policies may help mitigate immigrant-native labor market hierarchies by reducing existing labor market disadvantages of immigrants and making the most of their potential.

Featured image: joshua-hoehne-on-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

CISEPS 2023 Annual Workshop on Tackling Inequality: Challenges, Research, and Policies. Submission deadline December 23.

GLO Fellow Alessandra Michelangeli with the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology and Social Sciences (CISEPS) is organizing an international workshop on Tackling Inequality: Challenges, Research, and Policies, which will take place in Milan on the 14th April 2023.

Featured image: christine-roy-on-unsplash

Ends;

GLO Global Conference 2022 on December 1-3. With Latest Updates & Videos.

The dramatic global challenges request close collaborations between scientist around the world and those interested in evidence-based policymaking supporting global welfare. GLO has a particular mission for this. The event serves this purpose.

But 2022 is also the year of Jacob Mincer’s 100th birthday, 30 years after the Nobel Prize for Gary Becker in Population Economics; it completes 35 years of publishing the Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) and 5 years of GLO; and the world population reached 8 billion on November 15. Good reasons for reflecting the path of the discipline.

Updated December 5, 2022, 22:00 pm CET Berlin

Infographic: World Population Reaches 8 Billion | Statista

Source: statista

The GLO Global Conference Dec. 1-3, 2022, was mostly online and around time and space; some sessions were hybrid (in-person & online). We had invited and contributed, plenary and parallel, research and policy panel sessions. In-person sessions are explicitly marked.

  • Celebration of 35 years of the Journal of Population Economics (JOPE)
  • Presentation of the articles of the just online published issue 1-36, January 2023
  • Presentation of the JOPE 2023 Kuznets Prize with introduction by Ashwini Deshpande
  • Sessions with Handbook Chapters from “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”
  • Sessions/workshops on Alzheimer’s disease, Reconstruction of Ukraine, Gender Diversity, China, India, Migration and Happiness, among others
  • 4 sessions with candidates from the ASSA 2023 jobmarket
  • David Card, Oded Galor and Jim Heckman on “The path of population economics”
  • Sergei GurievAlexander Kritikos, Andreu Mas-ColellJonathan Portes, Reinhilde Veugelers and Klaus F. Zimmermann on “Globalization & Networking”

Technical issues to notice:

  • In-person & online sessions; 24 hours on three days
  • All sessions are 2 hours long with 4-6 papers each (4 papers: 20 min + 10 Q&A; 5 papers: 17 min +7 Q&A; 6 papers: 15 min + 5 Q&A).
  • Authors marked bold in the program are scheduled to present
  • Participation in all online and in-person sessions through Zoom possible
  • In-person sessions to attend locally upon special invitations.
  • No fees for presenters and all other participants.

ALL online conference participation through Zoom: NOW TERMINATED

  • For ALL participants: Invited, contributed speakers & other participants: No prior registration.
  • Zoom access codes are provided in the program shown below. Just click the link when you wish to enter the room of a particular session.
  • Most of the sessions take place in ROOM I; a number of sessions are in ROOM II and ROOM VI. Their entry link is the same throughout the whole event. You can stay, leave or return as you wish.
  • ROOM III, IV and V are only used once.
  • Please convert the CET Berlin time zone schedule used here to your local time! You may wish to use the Time Zone Converter.

Questions: Office@glabor.org

Call for contributed papers/sessions: CLOSED

The Program Committee has been: GLO Director Matloob Piracha (Chair), Cynthia Bansak, Shihe Fu, Massimiliano Tani and Guy Tchuente.

  • Contributed submissions started October 26, 2022 at:
    https://editorialexpress.com/conference/GLOglobal2022/
    CLOSED NOW.
  • Papers or extended abstracts were sent with deadline November 15, 2022.
    Open until midnight on US east coast time = midnight CET Berlin + 6 hours.
  • All decisions are communicated.

Junior researchers on the ASSA Job Market 2023 – get attention for your work! — SUBMISSION CLOSED!

  • 4 sessions with PhD students on the job market at ASSA 2023 include their job market papers or advanced thesis chapters.
  • Papers presented relate to labor, demography, health or human resources issues broadly defined. Proposals submitted included a paper or extended abstract and a CV either per link or as attachment.
  • The submission deadline was November 15 and the decision was communicated by November 24.
  • The sessions are scheduled on Friday December 2 and Saturday December 3 (see draft program below).
  • Submissions to: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma, Le.Wang.Econ@gmail.com

*****

The Organizing Committee of the GLO Global Conference 2022 included: M Niaz Asadullah, Alessio Brown, Xi Chen, Amelie Constant, Matloob Piracha, Martin Kahanec, Xiangbo LiuOlena NizalovaAndreas Oberheitmann, Sergio Scicchitano, Kompal Sinha, Michaella Vanore, Le Wang, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Laura V. Zimmermann.

Final Program

Day 0: Wednesday November 30, 2022; 16:00-17:15 CET Berlin time (10:00-11:15 am ET)

Alzheimer’s Disease Awareness Month. Global research insights were provided in a launch of a special issue of China CDC Weekly focused on Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) worldwide with Xi Chen (Yale University and GLO, Editor of the Journal of Population Economics) as guest editor. Yale Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center was organizing together with China CDC Weekly and the Global Labor Organization a launch event as a pre-conference event of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

  • Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias worldwide
  • Organizer & Chair: Xi Chen, Yale University
  • When? Wednesday, November 30, 2022. 16:00-17:1510:00-11:15 am ET
  • What? Six presentations. See details and paper access here.
  • How? Enjoy the Video of the event

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 2022; CET Berlin time

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 20228:30 – 09:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

8.30 Global Welcome – online
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I — no recording

Neil Foster-McGregor, Deputy Director UNU-MERIT; Pauline Osse, Wageindicator Foundation; Harald Beschorner, FOM Chancellor; Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, EBES; Shuaizhang Feng, Dean IESR; Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT & GLO.

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202209:00 – 11:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Journal of Population Economics Issue 1/2023: JOPE I – Family
Chair: Milena Nikolova, University of Groningen, Editor JOPE
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202211:30 – 13:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Journal of Population Economics Issue 1/2023: JOPE II- Fertility
Chair: Grégory Ponthière, UCLouvain, Editor JOPE
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

*****

Affiliated Conference: Migration and Happiness; Istanbul/Turkey, December 1 – 2 at the Turkish-German University. Istanbul is 2 hours ahead of CET Berlin. Conference starts 11:30 CET Berlin = 13:30 Istanbul. – Time Zone Converter

Program of the in-person event that can be attended online through ROOM VI

Organizer & Chair: Alpaslan Akay, University of Gothenburg & GLO

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202214:00 – 16:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Moderator: Michaella Vanore, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University, Managing Editor JOPE
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

14:00-15:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

  • 35 Years of JOPE: How it began – Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT & GLO UNU-MERIT & GLO, Editor-in-Chief JOPE
  • Remarks from the publisher: Martina Bihn, Publishing Director Journals, Business, Economics & Statistics at Springer Nature

Kuznets Prize 2023
Garima Rastogi (University of Oxford) and Anisha Sharma (Ashoka University)
Presentation of the Award: Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka University)

15:00-16:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

PANEL:  The path of population economics
Chair: Oded Galor, Brown University
Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth and Editor of the Journal of Population Economics; 2022 author of “The Journey of Humanity” – GLO Interview; GLO book presentation.

David Card, University of California at Berkeley
2021 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 

Jim Heckman, University of Chicago
2000 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 

Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT & GLO
Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202216:30 – 18:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Journal of Population Economics Issue 1/2023: JOPE III – Marriage & Fertility
Chair: Xi Chen, Yale University, Editor JOPE
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

*****

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202216:30 – 18:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

CEU-GLO-CEPR Workshop on the Reconstruction of Ukraine
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM III
https://ceu-edu.zoom.us/j/93491198448?pwd=bllrS0Q4dUdKSG1Ub3p1OGp2b1lXUT09

Organizer & Chair: Martin Kahanec, CEU Detailed Program

Hosted by the Department of Public Policy at Central European University (CEU) in collaboration with the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

  • Format: Hybrid (On-site for the Vienna audience, online public access)
  • Venue: Central European University, Quellenstrasse 51, Vienna, Austria
  • CEU Website LINK

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202219:00 – 21:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Francesco Pastore in memoriam: School-to-work Transitions. Research Session.
Organizer & Chair: Sergio Scicchitano, INAPP & John Cabot University & Misbah Choudhry Tanveer, Lahore University of Management Sciences
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

  • Introduction: Klaus F. Zimmermann, Sergio Scicchitano, Claudio Quintano, Antonella Rocca
    Obituary: Forthcoming International Journal of Manpower
  • Evaluating the Youth Guarantee Incentive: Evidence from employer-employee data
    Irene Brunetti (Inapp), Andrea Ricci (Inapp)
  • Does success stem from non-STEM field?
    Antonella Rocca, Claudio Quintano
  • Determinants of Job-finding intentions among young adults from 11 European countries
    Francisco Simoes, Jale Tosun and Antonella Rocca
  • The Francesco Pastore’s idea to enlarge the role of business in high education and in the labour market expanding permanent and recurrent training
    Claudio Quintano, Antonella Rocca
  • Federica Alfani, Fabio Clementi, Michele Fabiani, Vasco Molini, Enzo Valentini
    Once NEET, Always NEET? A Synthetic Panel Approach to Analyze the Moroccan Labor Market, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9238.
  • Sometimes it works: The effect of a reform of the short vocational track on school-to-work transition
    Simona Comi

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202221:30 – 23:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Research Paper Session. Issues in Labor Economics. (3:30 – 5:30pm NYT time zone)
Organizer & Chair: Amelie Constant, University of Pennsylvania
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

  • Do Economists Have a Sense of Justice?
    Guillermina Jasso (New York University)
  • The Impact of Selection into the Labor Force on the Gender Wage Gap
    Francine D. Blau (Cornell University), Lawrence M. Kahn (Cornell University), Nikolai Boboshko (Cornerstone Research), Matthew Comey (Cornell University)
  • The Impact of China’s One-Child Exemptions on Mating, Work, and the Gender Wage Gap
    Solomon W. Polachek (Binghampton University), Jiani Gao (Binghampton University)
  • Goodbye Norway: Testing Neoclassical versus Other Theories of Emigration
    Amelie Constant (University of Pennsylvania), Astri Syse (National Institutes of Health), Marianne Tønnessen (Oslo Metropolitan University)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 2022; CET Berlin time

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202224:00 – 02:00 CET Berlin (10-12 am Sydney time) – Time Zone Converter

Research Paper Session: Population, Personality and Policy 
Organizer & Chair: Kompal Sinha, Macquarie University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I – no recording

  • Gentrifying Cities, Amenities and Income Segregation: Evidence from San Francisco 
    Hasin Yousaf (University of New South Wales)
  • Retirement and Locus of Control
    Rong Zhu (Flinders University)
  • Economics of taxing sugar sweetened beverages
    Anurag Sharma (University of New South Wales)
  • Electricity markets crisis
    Rabindra Nepal (University of Wollongong)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202202:30 – 04:30 CET Berlin (9:30-11:30 am Beijing time) – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session I. Chair: Sisi Zhang, Jinan University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I – no recording

  • The Demography of the Great Migration in China
    Rufei Guo (Wuhan University), Junsen Zhang (Zhejiang University), Minghai Zhou (Zhejiang University)
  • Family Size and Child Migration: Do Daughters Face Greater Trade-Offs than Sons?
    Christine Ho (Singapore Management University), Yutao Wang (Singapore Management University), Sharon Xuejing Zuo (Fudan University)
  • Rising Family Income Inequality: Putting the Pieces Together
    Sisi Zhang (Jinan University)

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202202:30 – 04:30 CET Berlin (9:30-11:30 am Beijing time) – Time Zone Converter

Local only: Beijing, Renmin University of China (RUC) – no recording
5th RUC-GLO joint research conference on Chinese Labor Markets
Organizer & Chair: Xiangbo Liu, RUC

  • Gender Differences in Reactions to Failure in High-Stakes Competition: Evidence from the National College Entrance Exam Retakes
    Ziteng Lei (Renmin University of China )
  • Cutting Cakes and Making Cakes: Experiment Evidence for Financial Education and Labor Supply of Rural Women in China
    Yaojing Wang (Peking University)
  • Can All Humans Benefit from AI Assistance? Relative Advantage and Algorithm Aversion
    Zeyang Chen (Renmin University of China )
  • The Tenure-Track System and Academic Research Productivity: Evidence from Reforms in Chinese Universities
    Wei Huang (Peking University)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202205:00 – 07:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session II. Chair: Jinyang Yang (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I – no recording

  • Parenting During the Pandemic: An Analysis of the Time Use of Parents as K-12 Schools Reopened in the United States
    Cynthia Bansak (St. Lawrence University), Yue Bao (Jinan University), Jun Hyung Kim (Jinan University)
  • Disability and Labour Market Outcomes in Pakistan: An Empirical analysis from the Latest Round of Labour Force Survey
    Zubaira Andlib (Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology)
  • Income and Happiness: A Field Experiment in China
    Jinyang Yang (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202205:00 – 07:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

GLO Virtual Young Scholars (GLO VirtYS) Alumni Session Paper Abstracts
Organizer & Chair: Olena Nizalova, University of Kent, VirtYS Program Director
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II — no recording

  • Olena Nizalova
    Introduction of GLO VirtYS
  • The intended and unintended consequences of large electricity subsidies: evidence from Mongolia
    Odmaa Narantungala
  • Climate Change, Food Productivity, and Adaptation in Production Network
    Soumya Pal
  • Consequences of Family Planning Policies on Gender Gap in Breastfeeding
    Jun Hyung Kim with co-authors Yong Cai, Minhee Chae, Jun Hyung Kim & William Lavely
  • Learning the Right Skill: The Returns to Cognitive, Social and Technical skills for Middle Educated Graduates
    Femke Cnossen

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202207:30 – 09:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Handbook Session on Covid-19
Session relates to Springer Nature Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics
Organizer & Chair: Sergio Scicchitano, INAPP & John Cabot University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
Enjoy the Video of the event

*****

Affiliated Conference: Migration and Happiness; Istanbul/Turkey, December 1 – 2 at the Turkish-German University. Istanbul is 2 hours ahead of CET Berlin. Conference starts 07:30 CET Berlin = 09:30 Istanbul. – Time Zone Converter

Program of the in-person event that can be attended online through ROOM VI
— no recording

Organizer & Chair: Alpaslan Akay, University of Gothenburg & GLO

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202210:00 – 12:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session III. Chair: Milena Nikolova, University of Groningen
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I — no recording

  • Monetary compensation schemes during the COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for household incomes, liquidity constraints and consumption across the EU
    Michael Christl (Joint Research Center, European Commission), Silvia De Poli (JRC Seville), Francesco Figari (University of Insubria), Tine Hufkens (JRC Seville), Andrea Papini (JRC Seville), Alberto Tumino (Joint Research Centre, European Commission)
  • Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit
    Jonathan Portes (King’s College London ) and Mary Reader (London School of Economics)
  • Do Classical Studies Open your Mind?
    Giorgio Brunello (University of Padova), Piero Esposito (University of Cassino and Southern Lazio), Lorenzo Rocco (University of Padova), Sergio Scicchitano, (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis)
  • Robots, meaning, and self-determination
    Milena Nikolova, Femke Cnossen (University of Groningen), Boris Nikolaev (Colorado State University)

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202210:00 – 12:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Academia Europaea (AE)-CEU-GLO Labor Symposium: online only, public
Friday December 2, 2022 – 10.00 – 12.00 CET Berlin = Vienna time. MORE DETAILS.
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM IV
No prior registration.
Organizer & Chair: Martin Kahanec, CEU

The online symposium is hosted by the Department of Public Policy at the Central European University (CEU) in collaboration with Academia Europaea, Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

  • Mandatory Wage Posting, Bargaining and the Gender Wage Gap
    Rudolf Winter-Ebmer (Johannes Kepler University Linz)
  • Management Practices and Productivity: Does Employee Representation Play a Moderating Role?
    Uwe Jirjahn (University of Trier)
  • Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship
    Graziella Bertocchi (Universita’ di Modena e Reggio Emilia)
  • Climate Variability, Female Empowerment, and Household Employment Decisions
    Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies)

Note: The symposium is dedicated to the memory of Jacques Drèze, a long-standing member of Academia Europaea (since 1989), who passed away on September 25, 2022.

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202210:00 – 12:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Online Research Paper Session: Trust & Inequality, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht
Organizer & Chair: Michaella Vanore, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University

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  • Globalization and Trust in Government
    Jo Ritzen (UNU-MERIT)
  • Do pandemics Lead to Rebellion? Policy Responses to COVID-19, Inequality and Protests in the USA
    Bruno Martorano (UNU-MERIT)
  • Turning COVID-19 Vaccines into Vaccinations in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Survey Data
    Yannick Markof (UNU-MERIT)
  • Unequal Outcomes of Women’s Empowerment in Colombia: A Multidimensional Approach
    Zina Nimeh (UNU-MERIT)
  • Breaking Down Menstrual Health Barriers in Bangladesh
    Lonneke Nillesen (UNU-MERIT)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202212:30 – 14:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Research Paper Session: Gender Diversity
Chair: Nick Drydakis, Anglia Ruskin University
Joint GLO – Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) Session.
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I
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*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202215:00 – 17:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Research Paper Session: Migration and Identity
Organizer & Chair: Matloob Piracha, University of Kent
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  • Bansak, C., Dziadula, E., Zavodny, Madeline: The Value of a Green Card in the U.S. Marriage Market: A Tale of Chain Migration?
  • Gang, Ira, Khamis, M., Landon‐Lane, J.: Migration and Household Informal Activity.
  • Cai, Shu, Zimmermann, K.F.: Social Assimilation and Labor Market Outcomes of Internal Migrant Workers.
  • Randazzo, Teresa, Piracha, M.: Ethnic Identity and Educational Aspirations

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202217:30 – 19:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

PANEL Globalization & Networking.
About the future path of globalization, the role of networking and the contribution of the scientific community.
Chair: Alexander Kritikos, DIW Berlin, member of the DIW Berlin Executive Board

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Panelists are

  • Sergei Guriev
    Sciences Po Provost & CEPR Director of the Populism RPN; former Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, former Rector of the New Economic School/Moscow; book: Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century, 2022 (with D. Treisman).
  • Andreu Mas-Colell
    Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Minister of Economy and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia; book: Microeconomic Theory, org. publ. 1995, et al.
  • Jonathan Portes
    King’s College London, former Chief Economist of the UK government & former Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research; book: 50 Capitalism Ideas You Really Need to Know, 2016
  • Reinhilde Veugelers
    University of Leuven & Bruegel; former advisor at the European Commission, served on the ERC Scientific Council
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann
    GLO President & UNU-MERIT; former Program Director CEPR, Founding Director of IZA, Past-President DIW Berlin

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202220:00 – 22:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session IV. Chair: Eva Dziadula, University of Notre Dame
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  • The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States
    Barry Chiswick & RaeAnn Robinson (George Washington University)
  • Who is Doing the Chores and Childcare in Dual-earner Couples during the COVID-19 Era of Working from Home?
    Victoria Vernon (Empire State College)
  • Learning Inequalities during COVID-19: Evidence from Longitudinal Surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa
    Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank)
  • The Tragedy of the Commons and Population Growth: Can Trade Prevent Economic Collapse?
    Maurice Schiff (IZA)
  • Assessing the Impact of Granting Driving Privileges to Undocumented Migrants on Traffic Safety
    Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes (University of California – Merced) and Eva Dziadula, (University of Notre Dame)

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202220:00 – 22:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session V. Chair: Alexander Yarkin (Brown University)
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  • COVID-19 and the Future of Work
    Phil Lord (McGill University)
  • Return migration and children’s education: The USA Mexico case
    Avinandan Chakraborty (Colgate University), Jose Bucheli (New Mexico State University), Matias Fontenla (University of New Mexico)
  • Household Production Effects of Non-Wage Benefits and Working Conditions in Ghana
    Emmanuel Orkoh (North-West University)
  • Job Satisfaction Gender Gaps in Europe
    Giuseppe Lubrano Lavadera (Link Campus University) and Nunzia Nappo (Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II)
  • Learning from the Origins
    Alexander Yarkin (Brown University)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202222:30 – 24:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter This is 15:30-17:30 (Central Standard Time, USA). 

ASSA Job Market 2023: Presentations of Candidates on the ASSA jobmarket
Research Presentations. 2 parallel online sessions (plus 2 more see Day 3).
Organizer: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma

ASSA I: Child Outcomes. Chair: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I — no recording

  1. Alessandro Toppeta (UCL, alessandro.toppeta.15@ucl.ac.uk), “Skill Formation with Siblings” Personal Website
  2. Osaretin Olurotimi (University of Wisconsin-Madison, olurotimi@wisc.edu), “The Effect of Conflict on Children’s Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Uganda” Personal Website
  3. Richard Cole Campbell (University of Illinois at Chicago, rcampb25@uic.edu), “Need for Speed: Fiber and Student Achievement” Personal Website
  4. Silvia Griselda (Bocconi University, silvia.griselda@unibocconi.it), “The Gender Gap in Math: What are we Measuring?” Personal Website
  5. Vinitha Rachel Varghese (University of Illinois Chicago, vvargh2@uic.edu), “Impact Of School Consolidation On Enrollment and Achievement: Evidence From India” Personal Website

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 202222:30 – 24:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter This is 15:30-17:30 (Central Standard Time, USA). 

ASSA II: Implications of Public Policies. Chair: Tyler Ransom, University of Oklahoma
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II — no recording

  1. Seunghoon Lee (MIT, shoonlee@mit.edu), “Low-Hanging Fruit: The Benefits and Costs of a Small Food Waste Tax and Implications for Climate Change” Personal Website
  2. Shogher Ohannessian (University of Illinois Chicago, sohann2@uic.edu), “The Effect of the SSI Student Earned Income Exclusion on Education and Labor Supply” Personal Website
  3. Pablo A. Troncoso (University of Georgia, Pablo.Troncoso@uga.edu), “Employment Effect of Means-Tested Program: Evidence from a Pension Reform in Chile” Personal Website
  4. Sarah Deschênes (Northwestern University, sarah.deschenes@northwestern.edu), “Expanding Access to Schooling in Nigeria: Impact on Marital Outcomes” Personal Website
  5. Oscar Galvez-Soriano (University of Houston, ogalvezs@central.uh.edu), “Impact of English instruction on labor market outcomes: The case of Mexico” Personal Website

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022; CET Berlin time

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202201:00 – 03:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session VI. Chair: Elsa Fontainha, ISEG Universidade de Lisboa
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  • What the Mean Measures of Mobility Miss: Learning About Intergenerational Mobility from Conditional Variance
    Md Nazmul Ahsan (Saint Louis University), M. Emran (Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University), Hanchen Jiang (University of North Texas), Forhad Shilpi (World Bank)
  • Unintended Bottleneck and Essential Nonlinearity: Understanding the Effects of Public Primary School Expansion on Intergenerational Educational Mobility
    Md Nazmul Ahsan (Saint Louis University), M. Emran (Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University), Forhad Shilpi (World Bank)
  • When Measures Conflict: Towards a Better Understanding of Intergenerational Educational Mobility
    Md Nazmul Ahsan (Saint Louis University), M. Emran (Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University), Hanchen Jiang (University of North Texas), Orla Murphy (Dalhousie University), Forhad Shilpi (World Bank)
  • Covid-19 in Africa: threat to financial and material households resources
    Elsa Fontainha (ISEG Universidade de Lisboa)

*****

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202201:00 – 03:00 CET Berlin (8-10 am Malaysia time) – Time Zone Converter

Inequality and Public Policy in Asia COMPLETE SESSION DETAILS
Organizer & Chair: M Niaz Asadullah, Monash University Malaysia
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Session Overview: This session brings scholars from Southeast Asia to deliberate on the state of income inequality in the region. Papers selected are part of a GLO special issue edited by GLO SE Asia Cluster Lead, in collaboration with Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia. The session will be also attended by all other contributors to the Special Issue as well as Chief Editor of the Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia and other members of the editorial team.

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202203:30 – 05:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Improving Service Access and Delivery in India. Paper abstracts here
Organizer & Chair: Laura V. Zimmermann, University of Georgia
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*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202206:00 – 08:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session VII. Chair: Gouranga Das, Hanyang University
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  • Coping Strategies in the Face of Major Life Events: New Insights into Financial Wellbeing in Australia
    John de New (University of Melbourne)
  • The Wage Impact of Immigration into the UK after the Great Recession (2009-2020)
    Deboshree Ghosh (University of Malaya) and Heather Dickey (Queen’s University Belfast)
  • Growth of Youth Population in India With and Without Jobs: Evidence from the Census and Periodic Labour Force Survey
    K. Ramesh Kumar (Alagappa University)
  • Long way to go before they sleep: Unravelling commuting time from India’s Time Use Survey
    Sila Mishra (IIT-Kanpur)
  • Contact-intensity, Disruptions in the Cultural Sector and Wage Inequality: A Model of Covid-19 crisis and its impacts
    Sugata Marjit (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade) and Gouranga Das (Hanyang University)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202208:30 – 10:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session VIII. Chair: Marco Guerrazzi (University of Genoa)
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  • Do Alternative Work Arrangements Substitute Standard Employment? Evidence from Worker-Level Data
    Filippo Passerini (Catholic University of Milan)
  • Cousins from Overseas: The Labour Market Impact of a Major Forced Return Migration Shock
    Lara Bohnet, Susana Peralta, Joao Pereira dos Santos (Nova School of Business and Economics)
  • Who’s Got the Power? Wage Determination and its Resilience in the Great Recession
    Hugo de Almeida Vilares (London School of Economics) and Hugo Reis (Banco de Portugal)
  • In-work Poverty in Portugal: An analysis using EU-SILC data
    Elsa Fontainha, Ines Santos (ISEG Universidade de Lisboa)
  • Optimal Growth with Labour Market Frictions
    Marco Guerrazzi (University of Genoa)

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202211:00 – 13:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Research Paper Session. POP at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht.
Organizer & Chair: Alessio Brown, UNU-MERIT & GLO
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  • The Future Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Mythical Agents, a Singleton and the Dark ForestWim Naudé (RWTH Aachen University, Germany;  University of Johannesburg, South Africa; POP UNU-MERIT and GLO)
  • Is self-employment for migrants? Evidence from Italy, Marianna Brunetti (University of Rome Tor Vergata, CEIS and CEFIN) and Anzelika Zaiceva (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, GLO, POP UNU-MERIT and IZA)
  • Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion, Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi University), Filippo Palomba (Princeton) and Federico Cingano (Banca d’Italia), Enrico Rettore (University of Padova, FBK-IRVAPP, IZA POP UNU-MERIT, and GLO)
  • Gender-Specific Application Behavior, Matching, and the Residual Gender Earnings Gap, Benjamin Lochner (Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and University Erlangen-Nürnberg), Christian Merkl (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University Erlangen-Nürnberg and GLO)
  • Labor Market Regulations and Female Labor Force Participation: New Cross-Country Evidence, Nauro F. Campos (University College London, IZA, POP UNU-MERIT and GLO), Jeffrey B. Nugent, University of Southern (California and IZA), Zheng Zhang (University of Southern California).
  • Measuring labour and skills shortages using online job posting data in Canada, Kashyap Arora (Labour Market Information Council – Conseil de l’Information sur le Marché du Travail, LMIC/CIMT), Anne-Lore Fraikin (Labour Market Information Council – Conseil de l’Information sur le Marché du Travail, LMIC/CIMT, POP UNU-MERIT and GLO), Sukriti Trehan (Labour Market Information Council – Conseil de l’Information sur le Marché du Travail, LMIC/CIMT).

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202213:30 – 15:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter
PANEL: China & the World Economy.
Chair: Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, CAR Center Automotive Research
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*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202216:00 – 18:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter

Contributed Paper Session IX. Chair: Harry Patrinos (World Bank)
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  • Can HIV/AIDS Treatment Hurt Women? Evidence from Malawi
    Miranda Mendiola Valdez (University of Connecticut)
  • The Cultural Role of Rice Cultivation in Female Workforce Participation in India Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley)
  • How Hours Worked Affect Married Female Workers’ Marital Stability?
    Zhehui Zheng (Northeastern University)
  • Unemployment insurance generosity and labor supply – Evidence from the COVID-19 recession
    Swapnil Motghare (University of Notre Dame)
  • Does trust create trust? The effect of trust on autonomy and influence in the workplace
    Odelia Heizler (Tel Aviv-Yaffo Academic College) and Osnat Israeli (Ashkelon Academic College)
  • An Analysis of COVID-19 Student Learning Loss
    Harry Patrinos (World Bank)

*****

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202216:00 – 18:00 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter
FOM Research Paper Session
Organizer & Chair: Andreas Oberheitmann, FOM University of Applied Sciences
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  • Management mediation in China
  • Xiaojuan Ma
  • The equity markets of the BRICS and the world: raw material suppliers vs manufacturing economies
    Angi Rösch, Harald Schmidbauer
  • Common, but differentiated responsibilities” in a new international climate regime based on cumulated per-capita emission rights
    Andreas Oberheitmann
  • Concentration and Co-Location of Retail Stores in Germany – An empirical Study using Data from Social Networks
    Sascha Frohwerk

Abstracts of Oberheitmann, Ma & Frohwerk

*** 30 min BREAK ***

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202218:30 – 20:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter This is 11:30-13:30 (Central Time, USA). 

ASSA Job Market 2023: Presentations of Candidates on the ASSA jobmarket
Research Presentations. 2 parallel online sessions (plus 2 more see Day 2).
Zoom links will be available early in the conference week.
Organizer: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma

ASSA III: Health Economics. Chair: Bingxiao Wu, Rutgers University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I no recording

  1. Meiqing Ren (University of Illinois at Chicago, mren8@uic.edu), “Is Health Insurance a Barrier to Women’s Entrepreneurship? Evidence from State Infertility Insurance Mandates in the United States” Personal Website
  2. Miranda Mendiola Valdez (University of Connecticut, miranda.mendiola_valdez@uconn.edu), “Can HIV/AIDS Treatment Hurt Women? Evidence from Malawi” Personal Website
  3. Md Shahadath Hossain (Binghamton University, hossain@binghamton.edu), “Parental Health Shocks and Child Health in Bangladesh” Personal Website
  4. Jaclyn Yap (Fordham University, jyap4@fordham.edu), “The Heterogeneous Effects of Climate-related Disasters on Child Health: Evidence from Indonesia” Personal Website
  5. Malabi Dass (Oklahoma State, malabi.dass@okstate.edu), “The Nexus between Trade, Women labor force participation and Child Health: The Case of Indonesia”, Personal Website
  6. Michelle Escobar Carías (Monash University, m.escobarcarias@gmail.com), “Heat and Economic Preferences” Personal Website

*****

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202218:30 – 20:30 CET Berlin – Time Zone Converter This is 11:30-13:30 (Central Time, USA). 

ASSA IV: Labor and Urban Markets. Chair: Fan Wang, University of Houston
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II — no recording

  1. Minseon Park (University of Wisconsin-Madison, mpark88@wisc.edu), “Location Choice, Commuting, and School Choice” Personal Website
  2. Anjali Chandra (Fordham University, achandra7@fordham.edu), “The Roadblocks to Success: Evidence from India’s Road Construction Program” Personal Website
  3. Heejin Kim (UIUC, heejink2@illinois.edu), “The Effects of a Local Improvement on Housing Markets and Neighborhoods: Evidence from Chicago” Personal Website
  4. Xincheng Qiu (University of Pennsylvania, qiux@sas.upenn.edu), “Vacant Jobs” Personal Website
  5. Jacob Kohlhepp (UCLA, jkohlhepp@ucla.edu), “The Inner Beauty of Firms” Personal Website
  6. Nazanin Sedaghatkish (Virginia Tech, nazanins@vt.edu), “Identification of Loan Effects on Personal Finance: A Case for Small U.S. Entrepreneurs” Personal Website

*****

20:30 CET Berlin — Conference endsTime Zone Converter

Ends;

ASSA Job Market 2023: Junior researchers on the job market present their work online at the GLO Global Conference 2022

The GLO Global Conference 2022 took place online (and selectively also in-person) around the globe for 24 hours on December 1-3 with a pre-conference event on November 30, 2022. Online participation was free: FULL Program.

The GLO Global Conference 2022 program also announces 4 sessions of ASSA Job Market 2023 candidates presenting their work on December 2 & 3. By providing this opportunity, GLO promotes placement activities of junior researchers.

The ASSA Job Market 2023 program was put together by Le Wang, University of Oklahoma. It is also provided below.

Featured image: Tim-Gouw-Unsplash

Updated December 7, 2022.

Day 2: Friday December 2, 2022 – 22.30 – 24.30 CET Berlin time zone

ASSA Job Market 2023: Presentations of Candidates on the ASSA jobmarket
Research Presentations. 2 parallel online sessions (plus 2 more see Day 3).
Organizer: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma

ASSA I: Child Outcomes. Chair: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I

  1. Alessandro Toppeta (UCL, alessandro.toppeta.15@ucl.ac.uk), “Skill Formation with Siblings” Personal Website
  2. Osaretin Olurotimi (University of Wisconsin-Madison, olurotimi@wisc.edu), “The Effect of Conflict on Children’s Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Uganda” Personal Website
  3. Richard Cole Campbell (University of Illinois at Chicago, rcampb25@uic.edu), “Need for Speed: Fiber and Student Achievement” Personal Website
  4. Silvia Griselda (Bocconi University, silvia.griselda@unibocconi.it), “The Gender Gap in Math: What are we Measuring?” Personal Website
  5. Vinitha Rachel Varghese (University of Illinois Chicago, vvargh2@uic.edu), “Impact Of School Consolidation On Enrollment and Achievement: Evidence From India” Personal Website

*****

Day 2: Friday December 2, 2022 – 22.30 – 24.30 CET Berlin time zone

ASSA II: Implications of Public Policies. Chair: Tyler Ransom, University of Oklahoma
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II

  1. Seunghoon Lee (MIT, shoonlee@mit.edu), “Low-Hanging Fruit: The Benefits and Costs of a Small Food Waste Tax and Implications for Climate Change” Personal Website
  2. Shogher Ohannessian (University of Illinois Chicago, sohann2@uic.edu), “The Effect of the SSI Student Earned Income Exclusion on Education and Labor Supply” Personal Website
  3. Pablo A. Troncoso (University of Georgia, Pablo.Troncoso@uga.edu), “Employment Effect of Means-Tested Program: Evidence from a Pension Reform in Chile” Personal Website
  4. Sarah Deschênes (Northwestern University, sarah.deschenes@northwestern.edu), “Expanding Access to Schooling in Nigeria: Impact on Marital Outcomes” Personal Website
  5. Oscar Galvez-Soriano (University of Houston, ogalvezs@central.uh.edu), “Impact of English instruction on labor market outcomes: The case of Mexico” Personal Website

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022 – 18.30 – 20.30 CET Berlin time zone

ASSA Job Market 2023: Presentations of Candidates on the ASSA jobmarket
Research Presentations. 2 parallel online sessions (plus 2 more see Day 2).
Zoom links will be available early in the conference week.
Organizer: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma

ASSA III: Health Economics. Chair: Bingxiao Wu, Rutgers University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I

  1. Meiqing Ren (University of Illinois at Chicago, mren8@uic.edu), “Is Health Insurance a Barrier to Women’s Entrepreneurship? Evidence from State Infertility Insurance Mandates in the United States” Personal Website
  2. Miranda Mendiola Valdez (University of Connecticut, miranda.mendiola_valdez@uconn.edu), “Can HIV/AIDS Treatment Hurt Women? Evidence from Malawi” Personal Website
  3. Md Shahadath Hossain (Binghamton University, hossain@binghamton.edu), “Parental Health Shocks and Child Health in Bangladesh” Personal Website
  4. Jaclyn Yap (Fordham University, jyap4@fordham.edu), “The Heterogeneous Effects of Climate-related Disasters on Child Health: Evidence from Indonesia” Personal Website
  5. Malabi Dass (Oklahoma State, malabi.dass@okstate.edu), “The Nexus between Trade, Women labor force participation and Child Health: The Case of Indonesia”, Personal Website
  6. Michelle Escobar Carías (Monash University, m.escobarcarias@gmail.com), “Heat and Economic Preferences” Personal Website

*****

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022 – 18.30 – 20.30 CET Berlin time zone

ASSA IV: Labor and Urban Markets. Chair: Fan Wang, University of Houston
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II

  1. Minseon Park (University of Wisconsin-Madison, mpark88@wisc.edu), “Location Choice, Commuting, and School Choice” Personal Website
  2. Anjali Chandra (Fordham University, achandra7@fordham.edu), “The Roadblocks to Success: Evidence from India’s Road Construction Program” Personal Website
  3. Heejin Kim (UIUC, heejink2@illinois.edu), “The Effects of a Local Improvement on Housing Markets and Neighborhoods: Evidence from Chicago” Personal Website
  4. Xincheng Qiu (University of Pennsylvania, qiux@sas.upenn.edu), “Vacant Jobs” Personal Website
  5. Jacob Kohlhepp (UCLA, jkohlhepp@ucla.edu), “The Inner Beauty of Firms” Personal Website
  6. Nazanin Sedaghatkish (Virginia Tech, nazanins@vt.edu), “Identification of Loan Effects on Personal Finance: A Case for Small U.S. Entrepreneurs” Personal Website

Ends;

India at the GLO Global Conference 2022, December 1-3.

Research on India was presented in various sessions during the GLO Global Conference 2022, December 1-3. Information below. To inspect selected videos of the conference sessions see the links below.

Updated December 7, 2022.

Day 1: Thursday December 1, 202214.00 – 16.00  CET Berlin time zone!

Moderator: Michaella Vanore, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University, Managing Editor JOPE
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14.00-15.00

  • 35 Years of JOPE: How it began – Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT & GLO UNU-MERIT & GLO, Editor-in-Chief JOPE
  • Remarks from the publisher: Martina Bihn, Publishing Director Journals, Business, Economics & Statistics at Springer Nature

Kuznets Prize 2023
Garima Rastogi (University of Oxford) and Anisha Sharma (Ashoka University)
Presentation of the Award: Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka University)

DETAILS about the Prize & the Prize Winners 2023 (click the link):

2023 Kuznets Prize Awarded to Garima Rastogi & Anisha Sharma for their research on abortions in India

Day 3: Saturday December 3, 202203.30 – 05.30 CET Berlin time zone!

Improving Service Access and Delivery in India.
Organizer & Chair: Laura V. Zimmermann, University of Georgia
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Abstract: This paper revisits a part of the analysis by Banerjee et al. (2020), in which they examine the consequences of the nation-wide scale up of reforms to the funds management system (e-FMS) in India’s national workfare programme, using a two-way fixed effects specification. They report a substantial 19 percent reduction in labour expenditures. We exploit the recent literature that highlights the limitations of the TWFE estimator in the presence of staggered roll out and effect a Goodman-Bacon decomposition of the TWFE coefficient, to pinpoint sources of identifying variation. We undertake a detailed examination of subsamples of six constituent and valid DiDs based on timing of treatment that are averaged into the TWFE coefficient to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects. This disaggregated subsample analysis does not support the conclusion of any reductions in MGNREGS labour expenditures, suggesting that the TWFE coefficient based on the full sample is indeed biased.

  • Distributional Implications of Bank Branch Expansions: Evidence from India
    Kanika Mahajan

Abstract: How does financial development affect firm performance? We exploit a nationwide branch expansion policy in India targeted towards private banks to examine this question. The policy classified districts as “underbanked” if their ex-ante bank branch density was less than the national average. Extending a regression discontinuity design based on the change in districts’ underbanked status at the national average threshold, we find large increases in capital expenditures and credit growth by manufacturing establishments in underbanked districts. The increase in capital spending is driven by small and young establishments, who are also most likely to be credit constrained. An examination of mechanisms points to the improved ability of private banks to effectively screen borrowers and lend to small establishments with limited collateral, but high ex-ante returns to capital. Our findings show that financial deepening can aid in the relaxation of credit constraints in developing economies with imperfect capital and credit markets.

  • Contraceptive Usage and Fertility: What Happens When Doorstep Access Comes at a Price?
    Somdeep Chatterjee

Abstract: Contraceptive usage usually increases with easier access but evidently decreases as prices rise. We study a unique policy from India where home delivery of minimally priced contraceptives replaced the practice of acquiring contraceptives free of cost from village centers. Using a quasi-experimental estimation framework, we find that this intervention led to higher usage of contraceptives and lower fertility, potentially attributable to easier access. However, households substitute away from the priced modern contraception methods towards traditional or permanent forms of contraception, for which prices remained unchanged, reflecting a revealed preference towards costless contraception or high  fixed-cost but low variable-cost based methods. From the perspective of health care policy, while door-to-door delivery is a disruptive innovation in the market for health care which should ideally improve convenience for consumers; the actual welfare consequences remain ambiguous due to the potentially inefficient substitution patterns resulting from a highly elastic demand for these products at very low levels of price.

Abstract: Governments and NGOs have invested heavily in fighting corruption by designing anti-poverty programs that maximize transparency and accountability. We analyze whether corruption is still widespread in the context of one such program, a massive make-work scheme in India where every job spell is posted publicly online. Linking millions of administrative job records to local election outcomes, we measure how many jobs they self-deal. In the year after the election, winners of close elections receive 3 times as many workdays as losers and typical villagers. We find that corruption persists because of a gap between de jure and actual transparency. Only when citizens have tools to access information in a timely manner does corruption eventually vanish.

Single papers in various sessions:

  • Day 2: Friday December 2, 2022 – 22.30 – 24.30 CET Berlin time zone!

ASSA I: Child Outcomes. Chair: Le Wang, University of Oklahoma
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I

5. Vinitha Rachel Varghese (University of Illinois Chicago, vvargh2@uic.edu), “Impact Of School Consolidation On Enrollment and Achievement: Evidence From India” Personal Website

*****

  • Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022 – 06.00 – 08.00 CET Berlin time zone!

Contributed Paper Session VI. Chair: Gouranga Das, Hanyang University
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I

Growth of Youth Population in India With and Without Jobs: Evidence from the Census and Periodic Labour Force Survey
K. Ramesh Kumar (Alagappa University)

Long way to go before they sleep: Unravelling commuting time from India’s Time Use Survey
Sila Mishra (IIT-Kanpur)

Contact-intensity, Disruptions in the Cultural Sector and Wage Inequality: A Model of Covid-19 crisis and its impacts
Sugata Marjit (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade) and Gouranga Das (Hanyang University)

*****

  • Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022 – 16.00 – 18.00 CET Berlin time zone!

Contributed Paper Session VIII. Chair: Harry Patrinos (World Bank)
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM I

The Cultural Role of Rice Cultivation in Female Workforce Participation in India Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley)

*****

  • Day 3: Saturday December 3, 2022 – 18.30 – 20.30 CET Berlin time zone!

ASSA IV: Labor and Urban Markets. Chair: Fan Wang, University of Houston
Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II

2. Anjali Chandra (Fordham University, achandra7@fordham.edu), “The Roadblocks to Success: Evidence from India’s Road Construction Program” Personal Website

Ends;

“Take-up of Social Benefits”. US Top Economist & GLO Fellow Robert Moffitt presents his review article chaired by Regina Riphahn.

As a keynote to EBES 41 Berlin with GLO & FOM, US Top Economist & GLO Fellow Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University) presented his new contribution to the Springer Nature Handbook Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics on

  • “Take-up of Social Benefits”.

The session on October 14, 2022 was chaired by Regina T. Riphahn (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität, Nürnberg.

Ko, W., Moffitt, R.A. (2022). Take-Up of Social Benefits. In: Zimmermann, K.F. (eds) Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_372-1

Featured image: Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Academia Europaea AE-CEU-GLO Labor Symposium on December 2, 2022 as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

The online symposium was hosted by the Department of Public Policy at the Central European University (CEU) in collaboration with Academia Europaea, Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

Updated December 7, 2022.

  • AE-CEU-GLO Labor Symposium: Format: online only, public
  • Friday December 2, 2022 – 10.00 – 12.00 CET Berlin = Vienna time zone.
  • Join Zoom Meeting
  • Organizer & Chair: Martin Kahanec, CEU

Academia Europaea (AE) Section Economics, Business and Management Sciences is concerned with the many academic issues dealing with individual behavior up to institutions, small and national organizations, countries, and multinational structures. Recent topics covered among others are migration and identity; financial markets; regional economics; and climate change.

The AE-CEU-GLO Labor Symposium showcases some of the cutting-edge research in the areas of labor and population economics produced by section members as well as invited guests.

The symposium is dedicated to the memory of Jacques Drèze, a long-standing member of Academia Europaea (since 1989), who passed away on September 25, 2022.

Program:

  • 10:00-10:05: Welcome by Martin Kahanec (Academia Europaea section chair and CEU)
  • 10:05-10:30: Mandatory Wage Posting, Bargaining and the Gender Wage Gap
    Rudolf Winter-Ebmer (Johannes Kepler University Linz)
  • 10:30-10:55: Management Practices and Productivity: Does Employee Representation Play a Moderating Role?
    Uwe Jirjahn (University of Trier)
  • 10:55-11:20: Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship
    Graziella Bertocchi (Universita’ di Modena e Reggio Emilia)
  • 11:20-11:45: Climate Variability, Female Empowerment, and Household Employment Decisions
    Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies)
  • 11:45-12:00: Discussion and closing remarks

* * *

About Jacques Drèze

Jacques Drèze, a long-standing member of Academia Europaea (since 1989) passed away on Sunday, September 25, 2022, in Verviers at the age of 93.

Jacques inspired generations of economists, through his rigorous research (e.g. on economic uncertainty, general equilibrium theory, unemployment and disequilibrium economics), as a creator and director of the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), initiator of the European Doctoral Program in Quantitative Economics (EDP), founding father of the European Economic Association (of which he served as the first President in 1985), and professor at Université Catholique de Louvain and Cornell University. 

Jacques combined academic excellence with an open-door approach and empathy for the personal challenges of students and colleagues seeking his advice. He has been an exemplary role model for economists as well as economic policy professionals. 

Jacques will be missed immensely.

The institutions

Academia Europaea

The Academia Europaea was established in 1988 and is the Pan-European Academy of Sciences Humanities and Letters. The object of Academia Europaea is the advancement and propagation of excellence in scholarship in the humanities, law, the economic, social, and political sciences, mathematics, medicine, and all branches of natural and technological sciences anywhere in the world for the public benefit and for the advancement of the education of the public of all ages in the aforesaid subjects in Europe. Academia Europaea is a European, non-governmental association acting as an Academy. Our members are scientists and scholars who collectively aim to promote learning, education and research. Founded in 1988, with more than 5000 members which includes leading experts from the physical sciences and technology, biological sciences and medicine, mathematics, the letters and humanities, social and cognitive sciences, economics and the law.

Department of Public Policy (DPP), Central European University

DPP is a multi-disciplinary and global public policy Department at the Central European University in Vienna aiming to create an educational experience that involves not only the acquisition of skills and knowledge but also the cultivation of a mindset that emphasizes social entrepreneurship, innovation, cultural awareness and a commitment to the public good. DPP offers four master’s degrees in public policy, and the public policy track of the Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science program. The Department boasts a team of outstanding resident faculty, world-class visiting faculty made up of top researchers, and practitioners in the public policy field who bring a wide array of academic and practical subjects to DPP’s diverse classroom.

Central European University (CEU) is a research-intensive university specializing in the social sciences, humanities, law, public policy and management. It is accredited in the United States, Austria and Hungary. CEU’s mission is to promote academic excellence, state-of-the-art research, research-based teaching and learning and civic engagement, in order to contribute to the development of open societies. CEU offers bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral programs and enrolls more than 1,400 students from over 100 countries. The teaching staff consists of resident faculty from over 50 countries and prominent visiting scholars from around the world. The language of instruction is English.

Global Labor Organization

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is a global, independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that has no institutional position. The GLO functions as an international network and virtual platform for researchers, policy makers, practitioners and the general public interested in scientific research and its policy and societal implications on global labor markets, demographic challenges and human resources. These topics are defined broadly in line with its Mission to embrace the global diversity of labor markets, institutions, and policy challenges, covering advanced economies as well as transition and less developed countries.

Ends;

Air Pollution and Entrepreneurship. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Affiliate Liwen Guo and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that exposure to higher intensity of air pollution lowers one’s proclivity for entrepreneurship.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1196, 2022

1196 Air Pollution and Entrepreneurship – Download PDF
by Guo, Liwen & Cheng, Zhiming & Tani, Massimiliano & Cook, Sarah & Zhao, Jiaqi & Chen, Xi

GLO Affiliate Liwen Guo & GLO Fellows Zhiming Cheng, Massimiliano Tani, Xi Chen

Author Abstract: We examine the causal effect of air pollution on an individual’s propensity for entrepreneurship in China. Our preferred model, which employs an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity arising from sorting into entrepreneurship and locational choices, suggests that exposure to higher intensity of air pollution lowers one’s proclivity for entrepreneurship. We also find that industrial activity and self-efficacy mediate the relationship between air pollution and entrepreneurship. In addition, education and gender further moderate the relationship between air pollution and self-efficacy. In particular, air pollution negatively affects self-efficacy among the less-educated and females.

Featured image: Ella-Ivanescu-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of all 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Organized Labour and R&D: Evidence from Italy. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Fabio Landini and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the presence of second-level collective bargaining is associated with higher investments in R&D and that power relation is the main mechanism driving this result.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1195, 2022

Organized Labour and R&D: Evidence from Italy – Download PDF
by Cetrulo, Armanda & Cirillo, Valeria & Landini, Fabio

GLO Fellow Fabio Landini

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of firm-level collective bargaining on firms’ investment in intangible assets and, specifically R&D. While standard hold-up theories predict a negative effect of organized labour on intangible investments, the inclusion of pay-for-performance schemes in complementary negotiation can actually invert the prediction. Moreover, the industrial relation literature suggests that, in presence of asymmetric power relations, firm-level collective bargaining can allow workers to make their voice heard and induce management to invest in assets that drive competition away from wages, including R&D. We exploit a rich and representative survey on Italian non-agricultural companies conducted by the National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies (INAPP) to test these predictions. Baseline estimates suggest that the presence of second-level collective bargaining is associated with higher investments in R&D and that power relation is the main mechanism driving this result. These findings are confirmed also in a robustness check where we exploit size contingent legislation governing the creation of employee representative bodies involved in firm-level bargaining in a regression discontinuity design (RDD) framework. The implications for the design of innovation policy are discussed.

Featured image: david-kohler-unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of all 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

School commuting behaviors: A time-use exploration. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows José Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina & Jorge Velilla.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds significant differences in school commuting times across countries.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1194, 2022

School commuting behaviors: A time-use exploration – Download PDF
by Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge

GLO Fellows José Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina & Jorge Velilla

Author Abstract: This paper explores school commuting behaviors of children who attend primary school, high-school, or University, using time use data for a set of countries obtained from the Multinational Time Use Study. We focus on the duration of school commutes, and how they correlate with individual and family characteristics. We also explore the transport modes used, and whether the commuting is done alone. The results show significant differences in school commuting times across countries. Furthermore, we find more time devoted to commuting, and higher rates of commuting done alone, as the schooling level of respondents increases. Means of transport are relatively similar within countries, although they change significantly across countries. This analysis is the first exploration of school, high-school, and University commuting behavior, using time use data that make the results comparable. Our analysis opens doors for future research, and may serve planners in terms of policies promoting specific student mobility.

Featured image: Element5-Digital-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of all 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Alzheimer’s Disease Awareness Month. Global research insights are provided in a launch of a special issue organized by Yale Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center with China CDC Weekly and GLO on November 30, 2022.

Alzheimer’s disease is the most common form of dementia in older adults. Globally, over 55 million people live with dementia, and there are nearly 10 million new cases every year. The aggregate financial burden of the disease is over $1 trillion annually. As population aging accelerates, the need for a better understanding of the disease and for better treatments presents an urgent and major health challenge globally.

In recognition of November as Alzheimer’s Disease Awareness Month, Xi Chen (Yale University and GLO) served as guest editor of a special issue of the China CDC Weekly focused on Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) worldwide. The product is based on work of research teams at Yale University, London School of Economics, New York University, University of Cambridge, University of Washington, Peking University, Cornell University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

  • That special publication can be accessed here.

Yale Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center is organizing together with China CDC Weekly and the Global Labor Organization a launch event as a pre-conference event of the GLO Global Conference 2022 (December 1-3, 2022):

Alzheimer’s Disease Awareness Month, November 2022
CCDC Weekly Special Issue Special issue released on November 11, 2022.
Guest Editor: Xi Chen

Ends;

Geographic Variation in Inpatient Care Utilization, Outcomes and Costs for Dementia Patients in China. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Xi Chen & colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds regional gaps in equity and efficiency of dementia care and management for dementia patients.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1193, 2022

Geographic Variation in Inpatient Care Utilization, Outcomes and Costs for Dementia Patients in China – Download PDF
by Lin, Zhuoer & Ba, Fang & Allore, Heather & Liu, Gordon G. & Chen, Xi

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Xi Chen

Author Abstract: Dementia leads public health issue worldwide. China has the largest population of adults living with dementia in the world, imposing increasing burdens on the public health and healthcare systems. Despite improved access to health services, inadequate and uneven dementia management remains common. We document the provincial-level geographic patterns in healthcare utilization, outcomes, and costs for patients hospitalized for dementia in China. Regional patterns demonstrate gaps in equity and efficiency of dementia care and management for dementia patients. Health policy and practices should consider geographic disparities in disease burden and healthcare provision to promote equitable allocation of resources for dementia care throughout China.

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of all 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Learning Inequalities during COVID-19: Evidence from Longitudinal Surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang & colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the pandemic generally results in lower school enrolment rates.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1192, 2022

Learning Inequalities during COVID-19: Evidence from Longitudinal Surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Oseni, Gbemisola & Zezza, Alberto & Abanokova, Kseniya

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: There is hardly any study on learning inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in a low-income, multi-country context. Analyzing 34 longitudinal household and phone survey rounds from Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, we find that while countries exhibit heterogeneity, the pandemic generally results in lower school enrolment rates. We find that policies targeting individual household members are most effective for improving learning activities, followed by those targeting households, communities, and regions. Households with higher education levels or living standards or those in urban residences are more likely to engage their children in learning activities and more diverse types of learning activities. Furthermore, we find some evidence for a strong and positive relationship between public transfers and household head employment with learning activities for almost all the countries.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of all 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

CEU-GLO-CEPR Workshop on the Reconstruction of Ukraine on December 1, 2022 in Vienna as part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

Hosted by the Department of Public Policy at Central European University (CEU) in collaboration with the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

  • Format: Hybrid (On-site for the Vienna audience, online public access)
  • Venue: Central European University, Quellenstrasse 51, Vienna, Austria
  • CEU Website LINK
  • December 1, 2022; 16:30-18:30 CET Berlin time

Updated December 7, 2022.

The destruction and death toll that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inflicted on the country is immense. One day, however, the war will be over. To offer Ukraine a positive prospect of effective, encompassing, and inclusive reconstruction that will not only recreate the status quo ante but will enable the country to upgrade for better, a salient roadmap is needed. One of the first contributions to this effort was the CEPR blueprint on the reconstruction of Ukraine. Following up on this effort, the CEPR has put together a group of scientists around the world, with two lead authors on each chapter – one from the EU and one from Ukraine (although most chapters have more than two authors) – to provide a salient blueprint for the reconstruction from Day 1. CEU and GLO have contributed several experts to this endeavor and will now hold a workshop on the reconstruction of Ukraine covering several chapters broadly related to labor issues on December 1, 2022; 16:30-17:30, at CEU’s Department of Public Policy in Vienna as part of the round the globe, round the clock GLO Global Conference 2022.

Program

16:30-16:35 Welcome

  • Martin Kahanec, Head of the Department of Public Policy; Central European University
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Editor of the CEPR book on the reconstruction of Ukraine; University of California, Berkeley

16:35-16:55 Healthcare

  • Carol Propper, Imperial College London
  • Yuriy Dzyghyr, former Deputy Minister of Finance, Ukraine
  • Kateryna Maynzyuk, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance expert, Ukraine
  • Adrianna Murphy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

16:55-17:15 Education

  • Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Vienna
  • Snizhana Leu-Severynenko, USAID Economic Resilience Activity
  • Anna Novosad, SavED, Ukraine, former Minister of Education and Science, Ukraine
  • Yegor Stadnyi, Kyiv School of Economics, former Deputy Minister of Education and Science, Ukraine

17:15-17:35 Labor Market

  • Giacomo Anastasia, Bocconi University, Milan
  • Tito Boeri, Bocconi University, Milan
  •  Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  •  Oleksandr Zholud, National Bank of Ukraine

17:35-17:55 Business Environment

  • Yegor Grygorenko, Deloitte Ukraine
  • Monika Schnitzer, Ludwig-Maximilian University, Munich

17:55-18:15 EU Enlargement

  • Ivan Miklos, MESA 10 and CEU, advisor to the Slovak President, Moldovan Prime Minister, and National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine
  • Pavlo Klimkin, Centre for National Resilience and Development, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine

18:15-18:30 Discussion and Closing Remarks

            Martin Kahanec, CEU

Bio’s of all speakers see CEU website.

Department of Public Policy (DPP), Central European University

DPP is a multi-disciplinary and global public policy Department at the Central European University in Vienna aiming to create an educational experience that involves not only the acquisition of skills and knowledge but also the cultivation of a mindset that emphasizes social entrepreneurship, innovation, cultural awareness and a commitment to the public good. DPP offers four master’s degrees in public policy, and the public policy track of the Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science program. The Department boasts a team of outstanding resident faculty, world-class visiting faculty made up of top researchers, and practitioners in the public policy field who bring a wide array of academic and practical subjects to DPP’s diverse classroom.

Central European University (CEU) is a research-intensive university specializing in the social sciences, humanities, law, public policy and management. It is accredited in the United States, Austria and Hungary. CEU’s mission is to promote academic excellence, state-of-the-art research, research-based teaching and learning and civic engagement, in order to contribute to the development of open societies. CEU offers bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral programs and enrolls more than 1,400 students from over 100 countries. The teaching staff consists of resident faculty from over 50 countries and prominent visiting scholars from around the world. The language of instruction is English.

Center for Economic Policy Research

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) was founded in 1983 to enhance the quality of economic policy-making within Europe and beyond, by fostering high quality, policy-relevant economic research, and disseminating it widely to decision-makers in the public and private sectors. Drawing together the expertise of its Research Fellows and Affiliates, CEPR initiates, funds and coordinates research activities and communicates the results quickly and effectively to policymakers and other decision makers around the world. The Centre is an independent, non-profit organization and takes no institutional policy positions. 

Global Labor Organization

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is a global, independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that has no institutional position. The GLO functions as an international network and virtual platform for researchers, policy makers, practitioners and the general public interested in scientific research and its policy and societal implications on global labor markets, demographic challenges and human resources. These topics are defined broadly in line with its Mission to embrace the global diversity of labor markets, institutions, and policy challenges, covering advanced economies as well as transition and less developed countries.

Ends;

Robots, Meaning, and Self-Determination. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Milena Nikolova, Femke Cnossen & Boris Nikolaev.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that by deteriorating meaning and self-determination out of work, robotization will impact work-life beyond employment and wages.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1191, 2022

Robots, Meaning, and Self-Determination – Download PDF
by Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev, Boris

GLO Fellows Milena Nikolova, Femke Cnossen & Boris Nikolaev

Author Abstract: We are the first to examine the impact of robotization on work meaningfulness and autonomy, competence, and relatedness, which are key for motivation and human flourishing at work. Using worker-level data from 13 industries in 20 European countries and OLS and instrumental variables estimations, we find that industry-level robotization harms all work quality aspects except competence. We also examine the moderating role of routine and cognitive tasks, skills and education, and age and gender. While we do not find evidence of moderation concerning work meaningfulness in any of our models, noteworthy differences emerge for autonomy. For instance, workers with repetitive and monotonous tasks drive the negative effects of robotization on autonomy, while social tasks and working with computers – a tool that provides worker independence – help workers derive autonomy and competence in industries and jobs that adopt robots. In addition, robotization increases the competence perceptions of men. Our results highlight that by deteriorating the opportunities to derive meaning and self-determination out of work, robotization will impact the present and the future of work above and beyond its consequences for employment and wages.

Featured image: Alex-Knight-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

The Role of Social Identity and Perceived Discrimination in Human Capital Formation: Evidence from India. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Affiliate Isha Gupta.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the perception of social discrimination is a significant contributor to the gaps in cognitive outcomes and parental investment across Hindu castes. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1190, 2022

The Role of Social Identity and Perceived Discrimination in Human Capital Formation: Evidence from India – Download PDF
by Gupta, Isha

GLO Affiliate Isha Gupta

Author Abstract: This study examines the role of historically defined social identity in human capital development over time by focusing on a region from India where social identities are defined along the lines of castes and religious groups. It investigates the evolution of gaps across social groups in children’s cognitive outcomes and parental investment in children’s education from ages 5 to 15. Significant gaps in test scores and parental investment are found between children from lower and upper Hindu castes. These gaps, which originate early in childhood and persist throughout the 10 years of the study period, cannot be completely explained by the differences in socioeconomic status across social groups. Moreover, the perception of social discrimination is also found to be a significant contributor to the gaps in cognitive outcomes and parental investment across social groups. While parents’ perceived social discrimination is associated with lower parental investment throughout childhood, it is negatively associated with children’s cognitive outcomes only at later ages.

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Learning Inequalities during COVID-19: Evidence from Longitudinal Surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang & colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the pandemic generally results in lower school enrolment rates moderated by education.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1192, 2022

Learning Inequalities during COVID-19: Evidence from Longitudinal Surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Oseni, Gbemisola & Zezza, Alberto & Abanokova, Kseniya

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: There is hardly any study on learning inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in a low-income, multi-country context. Analyzing 34 longitudinal household and phone survey rounds from Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, we find that while countries exhibit heterogeneity, the pandemic generally results in lower school enrolment rates. We find that policies targeting individual household members are most effective for improving learning activities, followed by those targeting households, communities, and regions. Households with higher education levels or living standards or those in urban residences are more likely to engage their children in learning activities and more diverse types of learning activities. Furthermore, we find some evidence for a strong and positive relationship between public transfers and household head employment with learning activities for almost all the countries.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Health and Well-being of Vulnerable People in Vietnam. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang & Minh Do.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that government policy responses were generally regarded as effective and indicates the need for a social protection database to identify the poor and the informal workers.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1184, 2022

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Health and Well-being of Vulnerable People in Vietnam – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Do, Minh N. N.

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: Despite a sizable population and modest status as a low middle-income country, Vietnam has recorded a low COVID-19 fatality rate that rivals those of richer countries with far larger spending on health. We offer an early review of the emerging literatures in public health and economics on the pandemic effects in Vietnam, with a specific focus on vulnerable population groups. Our review suggests that vulnerable workers were at more health risks than the general population. The pandemic reduced household income, increased the poverty rate, and worsened wage equality. It increased the proportion of below-minimum wage workers by 2.5 percentage points (i.e., 32 percent increase). While government policy responses were generally regarded as effective, the public support for these responses was essential for this success, particularly where there were stronger public participation in the political process. Our review also indicates the need for a social protection database to identify the poor and the informal workers to further enhance targeting efforts. Finally, we suggest future directions for research in the Vietnamese context.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue online on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

The diffusion of digital skills across EU regions: Structural drivers and polarization dynamics. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Dario Guarascio & colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence of a strong and persistent regional polarization in the adoption and deployment of digital skills.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1188, 2022

The diffusion of digital skills across EU regions: Structural drivers and polarization dynamics – Download PDF
by Caravella, Serenella & Cirillo, Valeria & Crespi, Francesco & Guarascio, Dario & Menghini, Mirko

GLO Fellow Dario Guarascio

Author Abstract: The digital transformation is an important driver of long-run productivity growth and, as such, it has the potential to promote a more inclusive and sustainable growth. However, digital capabilities, crucial to develop and govern new digital technologies, are unevenly distributed across European regions increasing the risk of divergence and polarization. By taking advantage of a set of original indicators capturing the level of digital skills in the regional workforce, this work analyzes the factors shaping the process of digital skill accumulation in the EU over the period 2011-2018. Relying on transition probability matrices and dynamic random effects probit models, we provide evidence of a strong and persistent regional polarization in the adoption and deployment of digital skills. Further, we investigate whether European Funds (European Regional Development Fund, Cohesion Funds, and European Social Funds) are capable to shape the digitalization process and to favor regional convergence.

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Sexual identity and Gender Gap in Leadership. A political intention experiment. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Evangelos Mourelatos and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the competitive nature of politics has a strong negative effect on women’s and homosexuals’ interest to run for a political office, but not on men’s and heterosexuals’ interest, hence significantly increasing the gender and sexual gap in leadership ambition.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1187, 2022

Sexual identity and Gender Gap in Leadership. A political intention experiment – Download PDF
by Mourelatos, Evangelos & Krimpas, George & Giotopoulos, Konstantinos

GLO Fellow Evangelos Mourelatos

Evangelos Mourelatos

Author Abstract: The underrepresentation of women and homosexuals in leadership positions has been well documented, but the grounds for this need further investigation. We conduct a field and an online experiment to test a prominent theory about the sources of the sexual and gender gap in political leadership ambition: women’s and homosexuals’ higher aversion to engage to competitive environments. Within an experimental political environment as a context for our research, we employ two distinct subject sample pools – highly politically active individuals and workers from an online labor market. By controlling for a variety of internal and external factors and preference-based indicators, we establish that there are fundamental sexual and gender behavioral differences, stemming from differences in underlying psychological abilities and differences due to the nature of electoral competition. We find that priming individuals to consider the competitive nature of politics has a strong negative effect on women’s and homosexuals’ interest to run for a political office, but not on men’s and heterosexuals’ interest, hence significantly increasing the gender and sexual gap in leadership ambition. While on the online experiment the gender gap holds, surprisingly, we found that homosexuals’ intention to participate in politics follows the opposite course.

Featured image: dainis-graveris-unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Are Long-Lived Persons Utility Monsters? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Gregory Ponthiere.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that Nozick’s objection against utilitarianism turns out to be most relevant for real-world aging societies.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1186, 2022

Are Long-Lived Persons Utility Monsters? – Download PDF
by Ponthiere, Gregory

GLO Fellow Gregory Ponthiere

Grégory Ponthière

Author Abstract: Nozick’s “utility monster” – a being who is more efficient than other persons at transforming resources into well-being – is often regarded as deeply impossible, on the ground of the incapacity of a single person to have a life that is better than a large number of other lives. In this article, I defend a purely marginalist view of the “utility monster”, that is, that the primary characteristic of a “utility monster” is a higher sensitivity, at the margin, of well-being to resources, rather than a larger total well-being. I propose three purely marginalist accounts of “utility monster” and I introduce the related concept of “collective utility monster”, in order to account for the collective predation of (almost) all resources by a group of persons. I argue that, although a long-lived person, if taken separately, could hardly belong to the category of “utility monster”, a large group of long-lived persons can, under some conditions, belong to the category of “collective utility monster”. In the light of the increasingly large proportion of cohorts reaching very old ages nowadays, Nozick’s objection against utilitarianism turns out, after a thorough review, to be most relevant for real-world aging societies.

Featured image: mark-timberlake-unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

2022 US midterm elections & the abortion issue.

The abortion issue was relevant for the 2022 US midterm elections, but did not play the major role as inflation and crime. Those mostly concerned (see figure below) were Democrats, young, females and living in urban areas.

Abortion issues have been important in many societal debates around the globe during 2022. GLO & the Journal of Population Economics have informed the public about insightful research contributions on the topic among their publications. For free access to this research and on the organized public events:

Further:

Source: statista. Featured image: jonathan-simcoe-unsplash

Ends;

Gender gaps in time devoted to Commuting: Evidence from Peru, Ecuador, Chile, and Colombia. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Juan Carlos Campaña & José Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that women in these countries devote less time to commuting than men.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1185, 2022 Juan Carlos Campaña

Gender gaps in time devoted to Commuting: Evidence from Peru, Ecuador, Chile, and Colombia – Download PDF
by Campaña, Juan Carlos & Gimenez-Nadal, J. IgnacioJuan Carlos Campaña

GLO Fellows Juan Carlos Campaña & José Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal

Juan Carlos Campaña

Author Abstract: We analyze the relationship between gender and the time devoted to commuting by men and women in Latin American Countries. Using data from time surveys from Peru (2010), Ecuador (2012), Chile (2015) and Colombia (2012 and 2017), we observe in the four countries, that women devoted less time to this activity compared to men. We find that among the possible justifications for these gender gaps, it is important to consider the presence of children in the household, the hours of work and the type of employment of individuals. These results illustrate the importance of studying this topic in countries where the evidence is scarce mainly due to limitations in comparing the data between countries.

Featured image: dainis-graveris-unsplash

FORTHCOMING:
Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Meet the authors of 16 articles of this issue on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Maternity Leave. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Krishna Regmi & GLO Fellow Le Wang.

A new GLO Discussion Paper concludes from reviewing large literature that policy debates should not center around whether or not governments should offer paid leave; rather they should focus on how to design more efficient or optimal leave programs. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1184, 2022

Maternity Leave – Download PDF
by Regmi, Krishna & Wang, Le

GLO Fellow Le Wang

Le Wang

Author Abstract: Supporting working mothers to balance their work and childcare responsibilities is a central objective of maternal and parental leave policies. Nearly all countries offer some forms of maternity and family leave programs for childbearing on a national basis. This chapter reviews various types of leave policies available for working mothers (or parents) across countries and whether and how the policies affect women’s labor market outcomes, their own and children’s health, and child development. The leave policies can also influence women’s fertility choices, as well as household specialization and husbands’ labor supply. Recent studies also note the potential impacts on employers and coworkers of mothers who are on leave. One message that this chapter draws from the vast literature – with diverse and, in some instances, contradictory findings – is that policy debates should not center around whether or not governments should offer paid leave; rather they should focus on how to design more efficient or optimal leave programs. This chapter discusses some preliminary lessons for designing a leave program.

Featured image: christian-bowen-unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

New Book: China, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Century of Great Migration. Interview with author Michele Bruni.

New book just published analyzing the historical roots and long-term future implications of the tremendous demographical changes Europe, Asia and Africa will go through. The story uses China as the ideal case study to illustrate the major developments and implications, not only because of its history, institutional setting, and international relationships but because in the next decades it will be the country most affected by the largest shortage of labor. We discuss major points with the author in an interview (see below).

  • NOTE – Talk to the author. Michele Bruni will present highlights of his book during a public online panel (free Zoom access) on December 3, 2022, 13.30 – 15.30 CET (Berlin time) on “China in the World Economy” during the GLO Global Conference 2022. The free access online link will be provided at the GLO website and here in time.

Michele Bruni is a member of the Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) of the University of Modena and Reggio and a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

  • For more than thirty years, he has participated in and led numerous EU, ILO, IOM, and ADB development and labor market analysis projects in China, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe.
  • His research focuses on the development of stock-flow models and their application to the analysis of labor markets, education, and migration.
  • Michele holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley and a Laurea in Political Science from the University of Florence.
  • He has taught at the universities of Calabria, Bologna, and Modena and was a visiting professor at the universities Jyväskylä, Le Salle, and Shanghai.
  • He is the author of “China, The Belt and Road Initiative, and the Century of Great Migration.”

INTERVIEW

Michele, this is a remarkable book with a secular perspective; very relevant, with many important and fascinating insights. I have learned a lot. Let us elaborate on some of your findings and conclusions:

GLO: What brought you to population research and the economics of China?

Michele Bruni: It is a long story. Despite demography being central to my research, I did not formally study it at the university, but I instead accidentally encountered it later in life.

During the early 1970s, one of the most influential explanations for Italy’s youth unemployment was De Cecco’s Ricardian thesis according to which the industrial sector prefers hiring prime age males as they were the most productive due to production demanding punctuality, accuracy, stamina, and reliability. However, my friend Franco Franciosi and I discovered that construction rather than manufacturing was responsible for the increase in prime-age male employment. Subsequently, we thought that the right way to identify the cause of youth unemployment was to estimate first time (generational) entries into employment and analyze the structure of these entries by sector, sex, age group, and educational level. This led us to develop a generational stock-flow model of the labor market based on the analysis of the demographic processes taking place inside the labor market (you can find this model in the book as the “China’s theater” apologue).

The empirical results of our model were at the same time surprising and obvious. We discovered that people enter into the labor force when they are young (normally immediately after the education and training phase), generally age inside the labor market, and then exit when they are old. Moreover, the average age of entry depends on the educational level requested by each sector and therefore is the lowest in construction, the highest in services, and intermediate in manufacturing; and, at that time, the average age structure of generational entries and exits of men and women were notably different. Finally, in a country whose social values and institutional setting aim to ensure the full employment of the main breadwinners, the high rate of youth unemployment is due to the labor demand in terms of flow not being sufficient to accommodate the young people entering the labor force for the first time: this is the result of the interaction between the demographic sphere that determines the generational entries into the labor market and exits from employment, and the economic sphere that determines the number of additional jobs.

In the mid-1980s, when the presence of migrants in Italy was still marginal, the stock-flow model allowed me to produce demographic and labor market scenarios that demonstrated that Italy’s supply of labor was shortly going to become largely insufficient. I also realized that the restrictive migration policies enacted by Western countries were totally unjustified as they prevented the arrival of people badly needed by the production system. My academic interest then became more and more political and humanitarian since I realized and hoped that a correct demo-economic analysis of migration flows could not only explain and forecast migrations, but also prevent the thousands of deaths caused by prejudices and wrong theoretical analyses of migration flows.

My conclusions were reinforced by UNDESA’s 2000 report Replacement migration: is it a solution to a declining and aging population. It broke an almost fifty-year-long dogma by courageously and bluntly stating that mass migration is unavoidable, something of which I am also convinced. I felt that the enormous amount of criticism levied at the report and its author, prof. Joseph Chamie, was completely undeserved and spoke volumes on academia’s inertia as well as the politically sensitive nature of migration.

Finally, in 2006, I moved to China where I began to study its labor market, demographic trends, and their connection to the country’s economic performance.

In conclusion, my book is not only a summary of my ideas on demography, labor market, and migration flows, but also the result of a lifelong academic and personal journey.

GLO: You have written a history of population from a Chinese perspective. What are the largest demographic challenges for the world today and what is specific to the Chinese case?  

Michele Bruni: This century, our planet will witness a historical event, the end of a more than 250-year-long phase of explosive demographic growth. According to the 2022 World Population Prospects the planet’s total population is projected to peak at 10.4 billion by around 2085 and then decline; and even more importantly, the planet’s working age population is expected to increase by an additional 1.2 billion in the next 50 years before decreasing in the following decades.

Several positive considerations can be drawn. Firstly, a negative trend of the total population will reduce the GDP growth required to maintain GDP per capita constant, and therefore decrease the amount of natural resources used and our impact on the environment. It will also reduce the number of jobs required to keep the employment rate constant and provide the opportunity to confront the poverty, desperation, and moral debasement that derive from the lack of job opportunities.

Unfortunately, the situation is far more complex since over the past 200 years, the demographic transition (DT) has impacted countries around the world at different times resulting in them being at different stages of the DT. The richest and more developed states have already entered the “last” phase characterized by the decline of the working age population; many developing states will soon join them. Simultaneously, the poorest countries are experiencing and will continue to experience an explosive growth of their working age population. As a consequence, there will be an unprecedented demographic polarization between an increasing number of countries affected by a structural shortage of labor and a progressively aging population, and the poorest countries instead affected by a structural excess of labor.

Therefore, the DT is generating two opposite demographic challenges. Rich countries, to continue on a path of economic growth, will have to deal with both a decreasing labor force and an increasing number of elderly people. On the other hand, poor countries will have to manage a labor supply increasing at rates that cannot be realistically absorbed by economic growth. However, it is evident that these two situations are complementary and that it is possible to transform these regional problems into a global opportunity. This would require a political conversion to a rational approach to policymaking. Potential arrival countries should accept that it is in their economic and political interest to co-manage migration flows with potential departure countries in a manner quantitatively and qualitatively coherent with the needs of their labor market.

Despite not having achieved the status of developed country, China belongs to the group of potential arrival countries and is going to be affected by the largest absolute shortage of labor and an extremely fast aging process. While it is evident that Chinese society is not immune to xenophobia and racism, Beijing’s institutional setting, capacity to pragmatically pursue long-term goals, and desire to assume international leadership could lead it to adopt measures in contrast with the feelings of its citizens but beneficial to the country as a whole, such as in the case of the one-child policy.

GLO: Please elaborate a bit on the African challenge for Europe and Asia!

Michele Bruni: Is Africa the land of opportunities or the cradle of a demographic nightmare? Is it the new frontier for business, as suggested by CNN, or the place where children die since hospitals cannot afford pills that cost a few cents, as claimed by Save the Children?

What demographic data clearly shows is that, in absence of emigration, from now to the end of this century Africa’s working age population will register a fourfold increase bringing it from 15% to 43% of the world’s total working age population. Concurrently, the working age population of all the other continents will decline. Economically developed countries should therefore start to immediately ponder the economic, social, and political implications of these trends.

It should be evident that no matter how attractive Africa could be for foreign direct investment, it is unrealistic to assume that the continent will be able to create in the next 80 years the 1.3 billion jobs necessary to keep Africa’s rate of employment at an acceptable level (such a rate of job creation would imply outperforming China’s economic miracle). Thus, the only reasonable approach to avoid turning Africa into a demographic time-bomb is to absorb its structural excess of labor, especially since such a move would allow developed countries to deal with their structural shortage of labor.

Let me also add that humanitarian organizations should consider that too often saving the life of a child condemns them to live in dismal situations, to scavenge on rubbish damps to survive, to be easy prey of criminal groups or, if they are lucky, to be exploited by companies coming  from the same countries to which he own his  life. Saving the life of a child should also create the responsibility to make that child able to go to school, find a decent job, and face old age with dignity. This is only possible with a more rational and humane international order and approach to migration.

GLO: How do you judge China’s one-child policy today? Is it possible to further stabilize fertility decline?

Michele Bruni: Let me start placing the one-child policy in the international context in which it was conceived and adopted. The first demographic projections produced after WWII made evident that poor Asian countries, and especially India, were undergoing an unprecedented population explosion, caused not by an increase in fertility, but rather by a less pronounced decline of the crude birth rate with respect to the crude death rate. It was assumed that this situation would create poverty, poverty would beget communism, that in turn would destabilize the capitalist order. Moreover, the prevailing opinion shared by the leading demographers and economists of that era was that demographic growth could not be matched by economic growth and that the only possible solution was to reduce fertility. Therefore, in 1966, US President Lyndon B. Johnson decided to make foreign development aid dependent on the adoption of family planning programs, a decision immediately replicated by Japan, Sweden, and the UK. It should be noted that the Johnson administration’s decision preceded the publication of Paul and Anne Erlich’s Population Bomb (1968) and of Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome (1972). The result was a dramatic increase in the funding available to international organizations and private institutions in charge of implementing population policies. It also paved the way for India’s infamous campaign of compulsory sterilization headed by Sanjay Gandhi, during the state of National Emergency (1975-77) declared by his mother, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

In the meantime, China alternated between differing even contrary policies. On one hand, Mao and other high-ranking members of the CCP officially endorsed the pro-natalist Marxian position and in 1974 China helped lead Third World countries at the Bucharest Conference against the US position, under the slogan of “development is the best contraceptive”. On the other hand, family planning services were introduced in 1953 and, after an interruption during the Great Leap Forward, continued in earnest after 1964. Later on, Chinese families were urged to delay the birth of their first child, to lengthen the interval between children, and to reduce their number, a campaign encapsulated by the slogan “later, longer, fewer.” Data suggests that Chinese families shared this attitude as during the 1970s the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 6 to 3 children per woman.

It was in this context, characterized also by the new pragmatic and “scientific” atmosphere brought about by Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, that Beijing adopted the one-child policy, which was not an improvised measure imposed by a government devoid of humanity, but the expression of an ideology that put the nation’s interests above those of the individual. It was based on a substantially correct demographic projection made by one of China’s leading scientists and came after a debate that involved numerous national and provincial leaders, many of whom were openly against the measure. In the 1990s, China TFR fell below the replacement level of 2 children per woman, and it has remained below that figure since, despite the abolition of the one-child policy in 2016 and the subsequent measures aimed to foster fertility.

How to judge this measure? Firstly, I believe that the policy must be judged in its ideological context. At the same time, it is very difficult to assess the one-child policy’s impact with regard to the fall in fertility since at the moment of its implementation China’s TFR was already below three, in the 1990s it became a 1.5 child policy, and that other Asian countries experienced similar trends. Finally, there is no doubt that the law was kept long after it was not needed.

What is however undeniable is that the rapid fall of its TFR assisted China in lifting 800 million people out of poverty (and help to reduce global inequality as well), in surmounting an educational challenge concentrated in less than three decades, and then in facing the employment challenge with an educated labor force.

GLO: Fertility declines with development, this is the historical experience on a global level. Will fertility ever rise again with development?

Michele Bruni: In physics, an equivalent question would be asking whether gravity will one day start repelling apples from the Earth’s surface. However, while it is normally assumed that the laws of physics do not change because of the immutable nature of the universe, the laws “discovered” by social scientists do not have this universal and atemporal validity. Even assuming that human nature does not change, what is changing all the time is the demographic, socioeconomic, political, ideological, and technological context in which mankind lives and operates. Therefore, we cannot totally discard the hypothesis of a future characterized by a positive correlation between economic growth and fertility.

Before the end of this century, the Earth will enter a new demographic phase characterized by a declining population as a result not only of economic development but also of numerous other concomitant factors, including the recently acquired capacity to control the reproductive process. I suspect that this new phase will differ from our present one in numerous aspects.

The first interesting novelty is that it will be possible to improve the wellbeing of mankind while decreasing production, a feat that will however require us to drive the economic system “downhill” challenging the inbuilt inertia of the capitalist order that sees economic growth as a “natural goal.” The second is that this future society will be characterized by small families that could have fully interiorized the idea that small is beautiful. Moreover, while I doubt that the weight of reason and science will play a greater role in decision-making, it is possible that in the wake of the environmental disasters that are inevitably going to affect the planet in the next decades, humanity will have a deeper awareness of the scars that our growing population and hunger for raw material have inflicted on the Earth and will allow nature to reconquer a fair share of the planet. However, we cannot discard the possibility that some tribes produce large families. There is also a third science fiction-style possibility, that technological progress alongside the acquisition of different moral norms will bring to an externalized system of reproduction based on the quantitative and qualitative needs of the labor market.

The future is not in the hands of god, but it is the outcome of our actions, the result of chosen objectives and ways to reach them in a given material and ideological context. Therefore, economists and demographers should avoid making forecasts, limiting themselves to providing realistic scenarios to help policymakers find the best policies to reach their goals.

That said, personally I am rooting for a society that will choose to continue along a path of demographic degrowth paralleled by a degrowth in production, that aims to reduce all types of inequalities as much as possible and allow our planet to heal the deep wounds we have inflicted on it during last centuries.

GLO: What does it take to “manage” migration? Will mankind ever develop a successful institutional setting?

Michele Bruni: I believe that the most difficult step to manage (im)migration is in fact a preliminary, ideological step: to accept the idea that the labor market can be affected by a structural shortage of labor, that is a shortage that cannot be dealt with by market forces or active labor policies. This possibility is obstructed by the dominant paradigm. Moreover, this position finds support in the deeply rooted irrational – and therefore immune to any scientific refutation – prejudices successfully promoted by many populist and nationalist parties. These prejudices have also played a relevant role in assisting them to reach national prominence or even, as in the case of Italy, power.

Once a potential arrival country accepts this very simple and, in my opinion, self-evident position, these following more technical steps could be in order: estimate how many migrants are needed by educational level and skill; agree with one or more countries affected by a structural excess of labor to organize and co-manage migration flows quantitatively and qualitatively coherent with their needs; organize the transfer of migrants from the country of origin to the place where they are needed; and arrange for their placement in the labor market while supporting the social integration of their families. A fundamental aspect of my proposal deriving from my demand side explanation of migration is that recipient countries should finance and give technical support to the education and training systems of departure countries. In this way they would not only recognize the economic value of human capital they would be draining from departure countries, but this would also ensure that the migrants will have the skills they need.

A shortage of labor is already affecting North America, the EU, and numerous Asian countries and will affect many countries part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the book, I suggest that China could take advantage of its leading position in the BRI and champion the adoption of immigration policies by member countries with a structural shortage of labor in accordance with member countries with a structural excess of labor, while at the same time providing departure countries with the financial, human, and organizational resources necessary to give migrants relevant skills. Since education and training represent a key to development, this rational migration policy should assist with the socioeconomic development of departure countries and eventually help them converge with the developed world. Obviously, this suggestion is valid for other groups of countries which, as in the case of the EU, already have institutions that could coordinate the migration policy I suggest. As I have already stated, what stands in the way of a rational and humane migration policy are a misleading economic paradigm and prejudices embedded not only in right-wing parties but also across a large section of academia.

GLO: Given the global demographic challenges: How can China avoid mass immigration? In your book, you argue it cannot, why? It has already seen the greatest internal migration flows ever in mankind. Would it not be the right political strategy to avoid immigration to not face rising societal instability? And if a country can do this, then would it not be China?

Michele Bruni: Starting in 2013 China’s working age population started to decrease and from 2020 to 2050 will decline by around 174 million (-17.6%). In an intermediate labour market scenario, that assumes a constant rate of participation and a modest increase of the employment level (8% over the 30-year period), China will be affected by a shortage of more than 220 million workers (28% of initial employment), that translates to around 250 million migrants. It is evident that this would generate enormous societal problems and China should adopt all the measures that can reduce the inflow of foreign workers. The question is: will these measures be sufficient to avoid mass immigration?

A labor shortage can be confronted by increasing the labor supply and by reducing labor demand. Starting from the supply side, increasing fertility would seem the most obvious answer to a declining labor force. Nevertheless, only very few countries (France in primis) through the adoption of complex and well-organized sets of pro-natalist measures have been able to achieve significant results. Moreover, while it is evident that any country should try to reduce the gap between births and deaths to avoid the destabilizing effects of an excessive natural demographic degrowth, any positive impact on the number of births would only affect the labor market after 20 years.

I have further argued that China cannot expect relevant results from other supply measures. The participation rate assumed by the intermediate scenario is already high and a further increase looks improbable. Removing the existing obstacles to internal mobility is certainly socially and economically advisable, but it will not significantly reduce the country’s national labor shortage. The lengthening of life expectancy will soon impose raising the legal age of retirement. However, this measure (that increases the number of generations co-present in the labor market, while decreasing the numbers in retirement) will have a limited and temporary impact on the labor shortage for two main reasons. Firstly, an increasing number of people above retirement age are already voluntarily remaining in the labor force; secondly, the increase in the number of elderly workers will be neutralized by a decline in the number of young workers since technological progress will determine an increase in the duration of the education and training phase.

The demand side measures that can be adopted are mainly two: delocalization and technological progress. Delocalization has been already adopted by many countries experiencing a situation of a structural shortage of labor, Italy and Japan being relevant examples, but no country has been able to solve the problem of a labor shortage in this way. Moreover, once we consider that not everything can be produced abroad and that numerous other countries with more international experience will be adopting the same approach, it becomes evident that China cannot hope to resolve its shortage of labor through this policy.

Let us finally consider the solution favored by many Chinese economists, technological progress such as AI and automation and its resulting increase in productivity. However, I have argued that we should not expect technological innovation to be the hoped-for Deus ex machina. Empirical evidence shows that once we adopt a dynamic perspective (i.e., we take into consideration also second-order effects) new technologies do not have a negative impact on the employment level, but rather lead to the substitution of labor for routine tasks with skilled labor that can perform non-routine cognitive tasks, and therefore with a higher level of educational attainment. More generally, I would argue that all the previous waves of technological change, starting with the initial Industrial Revolution, have expanded the employment level because while new technologies do destroy many jobs, they also create new jobs due to the boundless capacity of the human mind to invent new needs and the new goods necessary to satisfy them.

I believe that China’s internal migration is in fact the proof of my thesis. The unlimited supply of labor present in the countryside and in the poor inland provinces moved (was attracted) to where the local supply of labor was not sufficient to face an expanding labor demand. It also seems to prove the capacity of China to “manage” huge migration flows (the number of China’s internal migrants exceeds threefold international economic migration flows). According to my computations, the next thirty years’ labor needs are in line with the internal migrations that have taken place in China in the last thirty years. The difference is that potential migrants will not be Han Chinese. I sincerely hope that Beijing will recall that the apex of Chinese civilization was reached during the Han dynasty, an era characterized by a multi-ethnic, industrious, and creative society.

GLO: In your book, you identify a strategic advantage of China over other Asian and over European countries with similar demographic challenges: What are your suggestions for a rational and humane Chinese migration policy?

Michele Bruni: I think it is fair to state that China, while enjoying some advantages, also shares numerous disadvantages with respect to other Asian and European countries affected by a structural shortage of labor. More specifically, a large share of Chinese citizens have the same prejudices against migrants and xenophobic feelings as their Western counterparts. Furthermore, despite the different ideological background, economic thinking in China is dominated by the neoclassical paradigm.

Regarding advantages, as I have already suggested, when confronted with ”survival issues” China has been capable of embracing a pragmatic attitude and adopting measures that, while beneficial to the country as a whole, go against the feelings of its citizens. I hope that this pragmatic approach to policymaking will remain despite the increasingly ideological turn that Xi Jinping’s leadership is taking. Finally and most importantly, Beijing’s policies are guided by a long-term vision of the goals it wishes to reach both domestically and internationally and by an institutional setting that prioritizes efficiently achieving them.

GLO: Is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a threat or a boon for the world? In your book you argue that it will be more positive than negative, since it began in a non-competitive setting. But the upcoming reality may be quite different. New competition between the systems, struggles for world economic, technological, and military leadership, excessive burdens and dependencies for the countries involved.

Michele Bruni: The BRI is an instrument and like many instruments it can be used to do good deeds or bad deeds. I think that Beijing would prefer to stick to its long-term internal and international goals and as I have suggested the BRI could play a central role in helping China achieve them. However, there is no doubt that totally different outcomes are possible since the future depends on the complex and interwoven relationships between actors with conflicting goals. Therefore, also in this case, I prefer to be coherent with my ideas on what role an economist should play. I will therefore avoid making forecasts and continue building alternative scenarios that could eventually help make rational and humane choices.

GLO: The human factor looks rather marginal in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) so far: Will this change and how?

Michele Bruni: For the moment the human factor has certainly played a marginal role in the BRI. My analysis suggests that the demographic trends that will affect BRI countries in the following decades could dramatically change this situation.

The total population of the estimated 65 original members of the BRI amounts to 4.8 billion people, 62% of the world population. In absence of migration, it is projected to reach a maximum of 5.6 billion in 2060 (when its share of world population will be down to 55.5%) to then decline progressively. The working age population will start to decrease 15 years earlier (in 2045) after reaching a maximum of 3.6 billion. However, as in the case of the planet, in the next 25 years the growth of the working age population of BRI countries will be the sum of the negative contributions of 24 countries including China, Thailand, Poland, Russia, and Ukraine, and the positive contributions of other countries, in particular Asian states, like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Afghanistan, but also African ones like Egypt.

I have argued that this situation will inevitably determine huge migration flows of up to 250 million people in the next 25 years and that it would be in the economic and political interest of China to champion organizing migration flows between BRI countries in a rational way. This would imply estimating the number of workers needed by the countries affected by a structural shortage of labor by educational level and skill typology. I have further argued that to maximize the positive impact of migration flows for both arrival and departure countries, the former and especially China should finance the education and training system of the latter and provide, when necessary, technical support. Departure and arrival countries should then organize the transfer of migrants, something which is currently very often in the hands of criminal organizations, while the latter should be in charge of their placement and the social integration of their families.

GLO: Why will China dominate the global order in this century? Has the Russian war against Ukraine not changed this perspective?

Michele Bruni: The scenario of China dominating the world depicted by Martin Jacques in 2010 is becoming more and more probable. In 2017, China became the world’s largest economy measured at PPP and has since then progressively distanced itself from its main competitors, the US and the EU whose GDP (measured at PPP constant 2017 international dollars) in 2021 was equal respectively to 84% and 79% that of China, despite the economic effects of China’s zero-COVID strategy. A further indication comes from China’s extremely fast technological progress promoted and supported by a growing number of highly educated and competent young people formed by universities whose international rankings are also steadily improving. However, what in my opinion makes this perspective very probable is the comparison between a country that has the capacity to establish long-term plans and an institutional setting that prioritizes efficiently pursuing them, and a Western world constantly engrossed in short-term issues and whose goals and the policies to achieve them are constantly being reshuffled.

In this perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war seems to me a short-term, albeit very dramatic, event that, as has been the case for the Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen wars and the never-ending conflict in Syria, will not have a significant impact on China-US competition. It could even be argued that the war in Ukraine, while having a negative impact on Western economies where growth is slowing down due to the energy crisis and anti-inflation measures, could benefit China’s economy and global position.

Regarding Russia and Ukraine, let me recall that before the pandemic and the war, their total population and, more importantly, their working age population were in decline. The war is having an extremely heavy impact on fertility and on the working age population in both countries and will therefore modify both their short-term demographic situation and long-term demographic evolution. This will have serious implications that have not yet been considered. The first is that most probably when the war will be over, both countries will not be able to return to pre-war levels of production including of goods essentials for other countries, especially African ones. Let me also note that while Western countries are already promising a “Marshall Plan” of around 400 billion dollars to rebuild the country, nobody is asking whether Ukraine will have the labor force necessary to do so.

GLO: Given the current struggle for a new world order: Will globalization end? China does not want it, but can it be avoided? Or will it be just different?

Michele Bruni: I believe there is no going back from the international interconnection that currently characterizes the world. In many cases, such with natural resources, cutting ties would be impossible, in others it would have extremely negative economic impacts on economic growth and consumers. However, the decreasing economic weight of Western economies and the parallel increase in economic weight of developing countries opens the way to a multipolar globalized planet in which the role of Western countries and therefore the impact of their decisions will become less and less relevant. It is to be hoped that the new international order will try to reduce the negative aspects of today’s globalization, and that globalization will also include labor since it is the only way for the poorest countries to escape the poverty trap born from demographic trends and the “wall” policies dominating the planet.

******

Michele Bruni was interviewed by  Klaus F. ZimmermannGLO President.

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Inequality and Public Policy in Asia. Session as part of the GLO Global Conference 2022 on December 3. Details.

The online session Inequality and Public Policy in Asia was part of the 2022 GLO Global Conference (1-3 December 2022) scheduled for December 3 (1-3 am CET Berlin = 8-10 am Malaysia) free to participate through Zoom link without prior registration.

Updated December 7, 2022.

Session Overview: This session brings scholars from Southeast Asia to deliberate on the state of income inequality in the region. Papers selected are part of a GLO special issue edited by GLO SE Asia Cluster Lead, in collaboration with Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia. The session will be also attended by all other contributors to the Special Issue as well as Chief Editor of the Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia and other members of the editorial team.

Chair & Moderator: M Niaz Asadullah, Monash University Malaysia

Date:               03 Dec (Saturday) 2022

Schedule:        8-10 am Malaysia (6-8 am Bangladesh; 12-2 am UK; 1-3 am Germany)

8.00-8.10 am (Malaysia time)Opening remarks: Guest Editor of JEM special issueInequality & Public Policy in Asia  
   
8.10-8.30 am (Malaysia time)Paper 1: The Resurgence of Income Inequality in Asia-Pacific: The Role of Trade Openness, Educational Attainment and Institutional Quality  Presenter: Sharon Koh Geok May Monash University Malaysia   Email: koh.geokmay@monash.edu
   
8.30-8.50 am (Malaysia time)Paper 2: Structural Transformation, Income Inequality, and Government Expenditure: Evidence from International Panel DataPresenter: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand   Email: wannaphong@ru.ac.th  
   
8.50-9.10 am (Malaysia time)Paper 3: What Does Data on Functional Income Distribution Tell Us About Trends in and Correlates of Income Inequality in the Asia-Pacific?            Presenter: Selim Raihan, Dhaka University & SANEM, Bangladesh   Email:selim.raihan@gmail.com
   
9.10-9.30 am (Malaysia time)Paper 4: The Spanish Flu Pandemic and Income Distribution in Java: Lessons from the 1920sPresenter: A. Gunadi Brata, Atma Jaya Yogyakarta University, Indonesia   Email: gunadi.brata@uajy.ac.id  
   
9.30-9.50 am (Malaysia time)Q&A Session 
   
9.50-9.55 am (Malaysia time)Group Photo Session     
9.55-10.00 am (Malaysia time)Closing remarks: Editor-in-Chief of JEM  Dr Mariani Abdul-Majid Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia   Email: mariani@ukm.edu.my

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Sixth International ASTRIL Conference, January 19-20, 2023 on THE LABOUR MARKET IN A TIME OF CRISIS, INFLATION AND DEGLOBALISATION. Call for papers with submission deadline November 20, 2022.

January 19-20, 2023: Roma, Italy. Sixth International ASTRIL Conference on THE LABOUR MARKET IN A TIME OF CRISIS, INFLATION AND DEGLOBALISATION. In-person & online.

Call for Papers. Submission deadline: 20 November 2022.

Deadline: Abstracts and session proposals (300-500 words): 20 November 2022. Please write the topic that the paper refers to areas (1, 2, 3, 4) in the abstract and send the abstract and session proposal (4 papers at least) to: astril@uniroma3.it

Featured image: david-kohler-unsplash

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Evolution of Inequality in Nigeria: A Tale of Falling Inequality, Rising Poverty and Regional Heterogeneity. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere and John Odozi.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that inequality has indeed decreased and median consumption expenditure increased. At the same time, poverty incidence and severity increased precipitously. 

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1183, 2022

Evolution of Inequality in Nigeria: A Tale of Falling Inequality, Rising Poverty and Regional Heterogeneity – Download PDF
by Odozi, John & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth

GLO Fellow Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere

Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere

 

Author Abstract: Recent research on Nigeria indicates declining income inequality. In contrast, anecdotal evidence suggests that only the upper class has benefited from economic growth in Nigeria overtime. The disconnect between these findings and anecdotal evidence, and the limitation in how inequality was estimated in the past literature are the motivation for our research. First we consider if inequality decreased in Nigeria between 2010 and 2018. We then examine how changes in inequality relate to changes in consumption and poverty. In addition, we examine whether there has been convergence in inequality and consumption across regions over this period? Leveraging data from the four waves of the Nigeria General Household Panel Survey (GHS) and carefully measuring inequality using consumption expenditure, our results suggest that inequality has decreased and median consumption expenditure increased. At the same time, poverty incidence and severity increased precipitously. Our findings suggest convergence in estimated inequality by regions but we do not find evidence of convergence across regions in consumption.

Featured image: Nigeria-Lagos-Muhammad-Taha-Ibrahim-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Green bonds’ reputation effect and its impact on the financing costs of the real estate sector. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer and colleagues.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that issuing green bonds lowers the firm’s cost of equity capital, while issuing non-green bonds has no effect on the cost of equity capital.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1182, 2022

Green bonds’ reputation effect and its impact on the financing costs of the real estate sector – Download PDF
by Petreski, Aleksandar & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas

GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer

Dorothea Schäfer

Author Abstract: This paper explores the effect of a firm’s reputation of being a green bond issuer on its financing costs. Using a sample of 73 listed Swedish real estate companies issuing in total about 1500 bonds over the period from 2011 till 2021, differencein- difference analyses and instrumental variable estimations are applied to identify the causal impact of frequent green vis-à-vis frequent non-green bond issuing on a firm’s cost of capital and credit rating. The paper argues that it is repetitive issuance which lowers a firm’s cost of capital, while the effects from first or one-time green bond issuance is the opposite. In line with the reputation capital hypothesis, issuing green bonds even lowers the firm’s cost of equity capital, while issuing non-green bonds has no effect on the cost of equity capital.

Featured image: Jason-Leung-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Disproportionately Affect the Poor? Evidence from a Six-Country Survey. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang and Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Manh-Hung Nguyen.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that while the outbreak has no impacts on household income losses, it results in a 63-percent reduction in the expected own labor income for the second-poorest income quintile.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1181, 2022

Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Disproportionately Affect the Poor? Evidence from a Six-Country Survey – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Huynh, Toan L. D. & Nguyen, Manh-Hung

GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang and Toan Luu Duc Huynh

Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought havocs on economies around the world. Yet, much needs to be learnt on the distributional impacts of the pandemic. We contribute new theoretical and empirical evidence on the distributional impacts of the pandemic on different income groups in a multi-country setting. Analyzing rich individual-level data from a six-country survey, we find that while the outbreak has no impacts on household income losses, it results in a 63-percent reduction in the expected own labor income for the second-poorest income quintile. The impacts of the pandemic are most noticeable in terms of savings, with all the four poorer income quintiles suffering reduced savings ranging between 5 and 7 percent compared to the richest income quintile. The poor are also less likely to change their behaviors, both in terms of immediate prevention measures against COVID-19 and healthy activities. We also find countries to exhibit heterogeneous impacts. The United Kingdom has the least household income loss and expected labor income loss, and the most savings. Japanese are least likely to adapt behavioral changes, but Chinese, Italians, and South Koreans wash their hands and wear a mask more often than Americans.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 4, October 2022: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE): 15 articles https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-4
CiteScore of JOPE moves up from 3.9 (2020) to 6.5 (2021). LINK
Similar, its Impact Factor is now 4.7 (2021) after 2.8 (2020)! LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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