The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing the Fifth IESR-GLO Conference online.
Beijing Time August 29 to August 31, 2022 through Zoom.
Theme is Social Policy Under Global Challenges
Keynote speakers are: Lisa Cameron and Junsen Zhang
The IESR-GLO annual conference is aimed to provide a platform for scholars and experts to exchange ideas on the current pressing economic issues through presentations of high-quality academic papers and policy discussions. Previous IESR-GLO Conferences have covered topics such as the Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs in 2021, Economics of Covid-19 in 2020 and on the labor markets in Belt and Road countries in 2019.
Submission
We welcome papers on topics related to social policies, especially social assistance and its reform experience.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO Shuaizhang Feng, Jinan University Sen Xue, Jinan University
Contact
For inquiries regarding the conference, please contact Sen Xue at sen.xue@jnu.edu.cn. General inquiries regarding the submissions should be directed to iesrjnu@gmail.com.
Lisa CameronJunsen Zhang
Lisa Cameron is the James Riady Chair of Asian Economics and Business and a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne. She is an empirical micro-economist whose research incorporates the techniques of experimental and behavioural economics so as to better understand human decision-making. Much of her research focuses on policy evaluation – understanding the impacts and behavioural implications of public policy, with a focus on social and economic issues. She is particularly interested in the welfare of disadvantaged and marginalised groups and the socio-economic determinants of health. Much of her research to date has focused on developing countries, particularly Indonesia and China and she has extensive experience collaborating with agencies such as the World Bank and AusAID (DFAT). Lisa received her PhD from Princeton University in 1996. She was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences in 2013.
Junsen Zhang is currently a Distinguished University Professor in the School of Economics, Zhejiang University. Prof. Zhang is also Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research (both theoretical and empirical) has focused on the economics of family behavior, including fertility, marriage, education, intergenerational transfers, marital transfers, gender bias, and old-age support. He also works on family-related macro issues, such as ageing, social security, and economic growth. Using many data sets from different countries (regions), either micro or macro, he has studied economic issues in Canada, the US, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, as well as Mainland China. Most of his recent research has been on the economics of the family using Chinese data. He has published over 100 papers in major refereed international journals. Many of them were published in leading economics journals or in leading field journals. According to a ranking by RePEc dated May 2018, Junsen Zhang ranks as the number one economist in the field of the Chinese economy. He was Editor of the Journal of Population Economics from 2001 to 2020 and has been Co-Editor of Journal of Human Resources since February 2019. He was the President of the Hong Kong Economic Association from 2007 to 2011. In 2013, he was elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society.
New book published in 30 languages. It studies the driving forces and long-run perspectives of the journey of mankind. We discuss major points with the author in an interview (see below).
Oded Galor : The Journey of Humanity. The Origins of Wealth and Inequality, 2022.
Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University
the founding thinker behind Unified Growth Theory, which seeks to uncover the fundamental causes of development, prosperity and inequality over the entire span of human history.
Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth and an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.
INTERVIEW
GLO: What brought you to focus your research on long-term roots of the history of mankind?
Oded Galor: I was born and raised in Jerusalem, and perhaps not surprisingly given the inescapable historical context of daily life in the city, I have developed a great affinity to the understanding of the roots of human behavior and the historical origins of religiosity, ethnicity, diversity, and the lasting impact of historical factors on human prosperity.
During my academic career, I was intrigued by the origins of inequality in the wealth of nations, and this curiosity gravitated me over time towards the field of Economic Growth. But, in contrast to the dominating trends in the late 1980s and early 1990s, my research in the field of economic growth was quite different. Rather than focusing on the notion of convergence, which is predicated naturally on the presumption that initial conditions do not matter in the long run, my research has focused on the understanding of the roots of inequality across nations and the role of initial conditions in the determination of the fate of nations.
My quest for the understanding of the vast inequality in the wealth of nations led ultimately to my creation of Unified Growth Theory. The development of this theory was fueled by the conviction and the evidence that a comprehensive understanding of global inequality would not be feasible in the absence of a theory that would reflect the principal driving forces behind the entire process of development and capture the central role that historical and pre-historical factors have played in bringing about the current disparities in living standards.
Along this process, I developed a great passion to the mathematical fields of dynamical systems and bifurcation theory, which underlines the importance of initial conditions in the determination of long-run position of complex systems. These important mathematical tools have enabled me to develop the Unified Growth Theory and to resolve some of the most fundamental mysteries in the development process.
GLO: What story reveals your recent book, ‘The Journey of Humanity’?
Oded Galor: The book explores the evolution of human societies since the emergence of Homo sapiens in Africa nearly 300,000 years ago. It resolves two of the most fundamental mysteries that surround this journey:
The mystery of growth – what are the roots of the dramatic transformation in living standards in the past 200 years, after 300,000 years of near stagnation. Why, in the past 200 years, has income per capital in the world increased 14-fold and life expectancy more than doubled, after 300,000 years of minuscule progress in these dimensions?
The mystery is inequality – what is the origin of the vast inequality in living standards across countries and regions and why has this inequality increased so dramatically in the past 200 years?
The book advances a revolutionary perspective about the origins of wealth and global inequality. It suggests that much of the inequality in the wealth of nations can be traced to historical and pre-historical forces that operated hundreds of years ago, thousands of years ago, and even tens of thousands of years ago.
GLO: The Malthusian poverty trap: How did we got out of this according to your ‘Unified Growth Theory‘?
Oded Galor: Ever since the emergence of Homo sapiens and development of the first stone-cutting tool, technological progress fostered the growth and the adaptation of the human population to its changing environment. In turn, growth and the adaptation of the population widened the pool of inventors and expanded the demand for innovations, further stimulating the creation and adoption of new technologies. Nevertheless, over most of human existence, one central aspect of the human condition remained largely unaffected: living standards. Innovations stimulated economic prosperity for a few generations, but ultimately, population growth brought living conditions back towards subsistence levels.
For millennia, the wheels of change – the reinforcing interplay between technological progress and the size and composition of the human population – turned at an ever-increasing pace until, eventually, a tipping point was reached, unleashing the rapid technological progress of the Industrial Revolution. The increasing demand for skilled and educated workers who could navigate this rapidly changing technological environment incentivized parents to invest in the education of their children and therefore to bear fewer of them. Fertility rates started to decline and living standards improved without being swiftly counterbalanced by population growth, and thus began a long-term rise in human prosperity that the world has experienced in the past two centuries.
GLO: You conclude that instead of the predicted communist revolution, industrialization lead to mass education. Why was Marx wrong?
Oded Galor: Marx maintained that the intensifying competition among capitalists would result in a reduction in their profits, inducing them to deepen the exploitation of workers. He argued that class struggle would therefore be inevitable since society would necessarily reach the point where the ‘proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains’.
Nevertheless, contrary to Marx’s hypothesis, the transformation of the production process in the course of the Industrial Revolution made education a critical element in boosting industrial productivity and maintaining profit rates. Education and the skills of the workforce became increasingly more important to the capitalist class, as they came to realize that education held the key to preventing a decline in their profit margins. They have therefore lobbied forcefully for the provision of public education for the masses. Hence, instead of a communist revolution, industrialization triggered a revolution in mass education.
GLO:Why has the industrialization over the last two centuries brought amazing growth but also huge global inequality?
Oded Galor: Intriguingly, when prosperity skyrocketed in recent centuries, it did so earlier in some parts of the world, triggering a second major transformation: the emergence of immense inequality across societies. Institutional, cultural, geographical and societal characteristics that emerged in the ancient past propelled societies on their distinct historical trajectories, influenced the timing of their escape from the epoch of stagnation, and contributed to the gap in the wealth of nations.
GLO:Why is global inequality so persistent and received strategies like the ‘Washington Consensus‘ with a set of universal structural reforms in your view a fundamental misconception?
Oded Galor: Privatization of industry, trade liberalization and secure property rights might be growth-conducive policies for countries that have already developed the social, cultural and educational prerequisites for economic growth, but in environments where these foundations are absent, where social cohesion is tenuous and corruption well entrenched, such universal reforms have often been fruitless.
Institutional, cultural, geographical and societal characteristics that emerged in the distant past have propelled civilizations through their distinct historical routes and fostered the divergence in the wealth of nations. Incontestably, cultures and institutions conducive to economic prosperity can be gradually adopted and formed. Barriers erected by aspects of geography can be mitigated. But any such interventions that ignore the particular characteristics that have emerged over the course of each country’s journey are unlikely to reduce inequality and may instead provoke frustration, turmoil and prolong stagnation.
GLO: Where does your interest and concern about inequality come from? How does inequality in the distribution of wealth affect growth?
Oded Galor: My long-term interest and concern about inequality has been based on my personal moral conviction as well as the understanding of potential adverse effect of inequality on economic prosperity. Wealth inequality is associated with inefficient education and investment decisions of the poorer segments of society. It has therefore an adverse effect on the allocation of talents across occupations and it reduces economic efficiency. In addition, it adversely affects social cohesiveness and is associated with civil unrest and therefore loss in productivity. Thus, despite the importance of wage inequality in generating the proper economic incentives, it is quite apparent that excessive wealth inequality adversely affects ‘equality of opportunity’ in society and is therefore both unjust and harmful for economic efficiency and social cohesiveness.
GLO: How do you differentiate your contribution from the bestselling work of Yuval Noah Harari (‘Sapiens. A Brief History of Humankind’)?
Oded Galor: The Journey of Humanity consists of two major parts. The first part examines the progression of humanity, as a whole, since the emergence of Homo sapiens in Africa nearly 300,000 ago. The scope of this part has some parallels to “Sapiens”, but it is fundamentally different conceptually and scientifically. It is based on Unified Growth Theory, which identifies the wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity over the entire course of human history. Each of the building blocks of this theory is evidence-based, founded on rigorous empirical analysis. In contrast, many of the critical transitions in “Sapiens” are largely speculative, and as the results of UGT reveal, its basic premise— that humanity progressed gradually since the agricultural revolution— is counter-factual. Moreover, The Journey of Humanity highlights the demographic forces that are central for the understanding of the Malthusian trap, as they have characterized 99.9% of human history and ultimately the take-off from stagnation to growth. This factor, however, is absent in “Sapiens”.
The second part of the Journey of Humanity explores the origins of inequality across countries. It highlights the role of institution, culture, geography, and human diversity in the divergence in the wealth of nations in the past 200 years. It leads into important policy implications about the vital role of gender equality, tolerance, and diversity in the future prosperity of humanity and the importance of the history of each individual country in the design of policies that could mitigate inequality across nations. This important analysis about the roots of inequality between nations is also absent from “Sapiens”.
As the author of “Origins”, Lewis Dartnell wrote: “if you like Sapiens you will love [The Journey of Humanity].
GLO:Your book feeds the hope for a long-term rise in humanity, of increased wealth, understanding and collaboration.
On p. 9 you write: “…. the outlook derived from this exploration can be described as fundamentally hopeful, in terms of the overarching trajectory of societies across the globe. ….education, tolerance and greater gender equality hold the keys to our species’ flourishing in the decades and centuries to come. ”
And after discussing major global catastrophes over the last century, you write on pp. 242-243: “But history shows that, shattering and dreadful as they are, these events have had limited long-term impact on the grand arc of human development. The relentless march of humanity has so far been unstoppable.”
How does this fit with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, which appears to many, like a game-changer of history?
Oded Galor: In fact the current crisis has reinforced my confidence about the relentless march of humanity. It is quite apparent that the Russian invasion to Ukraine has clarified to individuals across the globe that their liberties are at risk, and unless the forces that cherish freedom would unify, totalitarian regime may prevail and derail humanity from its promising march. And indeed, we have witnessed unprecedented unity within the European continent and even between the deeply polarized US society. As was the case in the course of human history, therefore this dreadful event is very unlikely to affect the grand arc of human development, and humanity may emerge from this crisis stronger than otherwise, as totalitarian regimes will recede further.
******
Oded Galor was interviewed by Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
Abortion issues are again on the agenda in may societies around the globe. Academic research can inform the public debate. The Journal of Population Economics(JOPE) is a scientific outlet for studying important issues. It has published a larger number of relevant papers recently. Two new papers studying abortion regulations in the United States were presented on June 1, 2022 open to the public. JOPE Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) has opened the event, and Managing Editor Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida) had chaired the session.
JOPE Research Workshop on Abortion Issues II (see Abortion Issues I) Wednesday June 1; 4-5 pm CEST (Berlin time) Chair: Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida)
Abortion issues are again on the agenda in may societies around the globe. Academic research can inform the public debate. The Journal of Population Economics(JOPE) is a scientific outlet for studying important issues. It has published a larger number of relevant papers recently. Two new papers on the consequences of abortion bans were presented on May 31, 2022 open to the public. JOPE Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) has opened the event, and Managing Editor Michaella Vanore (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) chaired the session.
Anisha Sharma (Ashoka University, India) Unwanted daughters: the unintended consequences of a ban on sex-selective abortions on the educational attainment of women
Federico H. Gutierrez (Bates White, previously Vanderbilt University, USA) The inter-generational fertility effect of an abortion ban
Meet the author! The Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) Spring Event took place online on 25 April 2022, 4-6 pm CEST (Maastricht, Dutch time). Authors presented the highlights of their articles published in issues 35:1 and 35:2 of 2022. Sessions were chaired by 4 journal editors. Various members of the JOPE Board present. Intensive discussions with a large audience. High number of participants registered.
Missed the event? Want to study details? Here is the Video of the event. Explore also the links to the papers provided below in the program outline!
Program
Presenting authors in bold! Scheduled times all CEST/Maastricht-Netherlands
The Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia will publish a special issue on “Inequality and Public Policy in Asia” in collaboration with GLO Southeast Asia under the direction of its GLO Cluster Lead M Niaz Asadullah. Submission deadline is June 30, 2022.
JURNAL EKONOMI MALAYSIA CALL FOR PAPERS FOR A SPECIAL ISSUE ON:Inequality and Public Policy in Asia
Guest Editor: Professor M Niaz Asadullah (Universiti Malaya & Global Labor Organization (GLO) Southeast Asia)
Niaz Asadullah
Overview of the Special Issue: While income inequality globally has declined significantly in many socio-economic indicators in the past decades, within country inequality is once again on the rise. Rapid economic growth and market reforms have helped reduce extreme poverty within Asian region, but this also coincided with a worsening distribution of earnings, wages and wealth. These contrasting patterns have raised questions about the progressivity of public policy and its efficacy in achieving growth with equity. To what extent have fiscal policies succeeded in reducing inequality in Asia? How important was the role of social expenditures on health and education? And what about the design of social safety nets, labor market reforms, and financial sector inclusion?
To answer some of the above questions, the editorial board of Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia is seeking scholarly manuscripts for a special issue on inequality and public policy, which is also the first in collaboration with Global Labor Organization (GLO). The unique partnership with GLO will ensure worldwide circulation of the accepted papers.
The SI focus is on contemporary issues involving all aspects of inequality (social and economic). Social science research including a range of disciplinary perspectives and quantitative methods is welcome. Manuscripts in the following issues, but not limited to, are welcome:
Within and cross-country analysis of trends in and drivers of inequality in Asia
Policy drivers of rising or declining inequality in Asia
Political economy analysis of fiscal and tax policy
Inequality of pre-market opportunities (e.g. health, education)
Financial shock, economic crisis and redistributive policy measures
More Information about the Journal
Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia is an internationally refereed SCOPUS-indexed journal that publishes original articles, research notes, book reviews on economics three times a year published by Penerbit UKM, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. It is also one of the oldest SCOPUS-indexed economics journals published from Southeast Asia.
Submission Information
Word limit: 6,000-8,000 Total number of papers to be Accepted Paper: 8-10 Registration and Submission: https://www.ukm.my/jem/ Select article type “Special issue” in the submission process. Author guidelines: https://www.ukm.my/jem/author-guidelines/ Enquiries on Submission: jem@ukm.edu.my Informal enquiries on proposed topics and potential fit with special Issue objective: m.niaz@um.edu.my
Key Deadlines
Opening Submission Date: 1 May 2022 Closing Submission Date: 30 June 2022 Possible publication date: October 2022
Using data from large-scale experiments with entire families for Bangladesh, the research finds that both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences.Results differ from evidence for rich countries.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 592, 2020 now forthcoming as
Economic preferences across generations and family clusters: A large-scale experiment in a developing country by Chowdhury, Shyamal & Sutter, Matthias & Zimmermann, Klaus F.
GLO FellowsShyamal Chowdhury and Matthias Sutter & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann
Shyamal Chowdhury
Matthias Sutter
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Author Abstract:Our large-scale experiment with 542 families from rural Bangladesh finds substantial intergenerational persistence of economic preferences. Both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly (and largely to the same degree) positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and socio-economic background. We discuss possible transmission channels and are the first to classify all families into one of two clusters, with either relatively patient, risk-tolerant and pro-social members or relatively impatient, risk averse and spiteful members. Classifications correlate with socio-economic background variables. We find that our results differ from evidence for rich countries.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The event was jointly organized by Global Labor Organization (GLO), the Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) and POP @ UNU-MERIT and chaired by Klaus F. Zimmermann (President of GLO, Editor-in-Chief of JOPE, and Co-Director of POP). About 200 people had registered to attend.
Oded Galor spoke about his new book just published with Penguin Random House in thirty languages worldwide. It is released on March 22 in the USA and on April 7 in the UK and on April 13 in Germany.
He is Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University and the founding thinker behind Unified Growth Theory, which seeks to uncover the fundamental causes of development, prosperity and inequality over the entire span of human history. He is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth and an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.
About the book
In a captivating journey from the dawn of human existence to the present, world-renowned economist and thinker Oded Galor offers an intriguing solution to two of humanity’s great mysteries.
Why are humans the only species to have escaped – only very recently – the subsistence trap, allowing us to enjoy a standard of living that vastly exceeds all others? And why have we progressed so unequally around the world, resulting in the great disparities between nations that exist today? Immense in scope and packed with astounding connections, Galor’s gripping narrative explains how technology, population size, and adaptation led to a stunning “phase change” in the human story a mere two hundred years ago. But by tracing that same journey back in time and peeling away the layers of influence – colonialism, political institutions, societal structure, culture – he arrives also at an explanation of inequality’s ultimate causes: those ancestral populations that enjoyed fruitful geographical characteristics and rich diversity were set on the path to prosperity, while those that lacked it were disadvantaged in ways still echoed today.
As we face ecological crisis across the globe, The Journey of Humanity is a book of urgent truths and enduring relevance, with lessons that are both hopeful and profound: gender equality, investment in education, and balancing diversity with social cohesion are the keys not only to our species’ thriving, but to its survival.
From the event
From the opening remarks of Klaus F. Zimmermann
Oded is the Herbert Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University and one of the profoundest economic thinkers of the world. He has published his research in the best academic outlets of the profession. His contributions focus for long around the fundamental causes of development, prosperity and inequality over the entire span of human history. As the driving force behind what he calls “Unified Growth Theory” and the role of genetic diversity for development he seeks to uncover the fundamental causes of the path of human wellbeing across time and space.
Oded Galor was awarded Doctorates Honoris Causa from UCLouvain and from Poznań University of Economics & Business. He is an elected Foreign Member of Academia Europaea and an Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society. He is affiliated with many distinguished academic networks like NBER, CEPR, GLO, IZA, among others. Furthermore, he is the Editor in Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth, Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and Co-Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics. He has served the profession in many unique ways.
His new book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality” comes at the time of a dramatic setback in economic history, as for a few weeks now the aggressive war against the Ukraine reveals. Europe experiences some of the darkest days on the continent since WWII with unpredictable ending.
The book could not foresee this development. But it nevertheless feeds the hope for a long-term rise in humanity, of increased wealth, understanding and collaboration.
As Oded Galor writes at the beginning of his global review of history (p. 9): “…. the outlook derived from this exploration can be described as fundamentally hopeful, in terms of the overarching trajectory of societies across the globe. …. education, tolerance and greater gender equality hold the keys to our species’ flourishing in the decades and centuries to come. ”
And after discussing major global catastrophes over the last century, he writes towards the end (p. 242f): “But history shows that, shattering and dreadful as they are, these events have had limited long-term impact on the grand arc of human development. The relentless march of humanity has so far been unstoppable.”
The book helps us to see the mechanisms and common institutions we need to invest and struggle for to foster human development and to overpower disaster.
The new paperfinds that an U-shaped relationship between female labour force participation and economic development is only significant in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology.
Journal of Population Economics (2022). Open Access https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-022-00890-5
Author Abstract: The Feminisation U describes the tendency of female labour force participation (FLFP) to first decline and then rise in the process of economic development. While the Feminisation U is often presented as a ‘stylised fact’ of development, empirical support for it is mixed. Here, we show that cultural norms inherited from ancestral plough use exert a moderating influence on the shape of the Feminisation U. Specifically, we find a significantly U-shaped path of FLFP only in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology. The shape of the U-curve becomes progressively more muted as the share of a country’s ancestors that practiced plough agriculture decreases. In countries with little or no legacy of historical plough use, the time path of FLFP is effectively flat. This pattern of results is robust to correcting for dynamic panel bias, instrumenting for per-capita income, and controlling for other potential effect modifiers. Our findings are compatible with a nuanced reading of the main theoretical models proposed in the literature to explain the Feminisation U.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Because vaccinations are crucial to containing the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to identify the key factors behind successful immunisation campaigns. This column shows that pandemic pressures, economic strength, educational advancement, and political regimes can affect vaccination uptake, given vaccine availability. While democratic regimes initially show faster vaccination uptake, this advantage fades out as countries try to get more people vaccinated. Countries with strong economies and education systems are likely to have faster uptake of vaccination campaigns.
Read the column:
Vu M. Ngo, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Phuc V. Nguyen, Toan Luu Duc Huynh and Huan H. Nguyen (2021). Understanding the setup and speed of global COVID-19 vaccination campaigns
Was it important?A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that while marijuana-related hospital discharge rose, there is lack of evidence that traffic crash incidents were affected.
Author Abstract: This article examines the effect of recreational cannabis dispensary sales on traffic crashes by employing difference-in-differences model that exploits the variation in the timing of recreational marijuana dispensary entry across counties within Colorado. Using marijuana-related hospital discharge as a proxy for marijuana use, the results indicate a sizable rise in marijuana-related hospital discharges after the entry of retail cannabis stores. However, there is a lack of evidence that traffic crash incidents are affected by the entry. The preferred estimate suggests that, at 90% confidence level, a large increase in traffic crashes by more than 5% can be ruled out.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The 37th EBES Conference takes place online on October 6-8 2021. GLO is a co-organizing partner, and FOM University of Applied Sciences is the local host supporting the event from Berlin.EBES, theEurasia Business and Economics Society, and FOM University of Applied Sciencesare strategic partners and institutional supporters of GLO.
Day TWO (October 7) saw next to 9 parallel research paper sessions a Special FOM-GLO Session and the GLO Handbook Session Migration I. The highlight plenary Speech of the Day was delivered by Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge and GLO) on Religion and Mental Health chaired by Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, CERGE-EI & GLO), who is also the GLO Research Cluster Lead “Religion”. The EBES 37 Plenary Speech was this time joint with the monthly GLO Virtual Research Seminar normally chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha.
CONFERENCE PROGRAM WITH PARTICIPATION DETAILS: LINK
Monika Wohlmann (FOM University of Applied Science): The European Central Bank’s Strategy Review and the Management of Inflation Expectations
Sascha Frohwerk (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Berlin, Hasso-Plattner-Institute, Potsdam and GLO): Retail Location Choice Models. A Comparison of Gravitation and Logit Model
Andreas Oberheitmann (Tsinghua University, FOM and GLO): Development of a Low Carbon Economy in Wuxi City. An Example of Climate Change Mitigation in China on the Local Level.
Michael Drewes (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Mannheim) and Luca Rebeggiani (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Bonn): Private vs. Public Financing of Sport Stadia in Germany – An Empirical Analysis.
Sascha Frohwerk (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Berlin, Hasso-Plattner-Institute, Potsdam and GLO), Carsten Kruppe and Holger Wassermann: Evolution or Revolution: The Entry of New Company Successors in Germany
Kai Klotz and Alexander Spermann (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Freiburg University and GLO): Did the Refugee Crisis Cause the Rise of Right-wing Parties? Empirical Evidence from East Germany.
14.00-15.00. Plenary Speech joint with the monthly GLO Seminar Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge and GLO): Religion and Mental Health Chair: Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, CERGE-EI & GLO)
Note: The session relates to the Springer Nature Handbook project“Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”supported by the GLO network.
Massimiliano Tani (University of New South Wales & GLO) & Matloob Piracha (University of Kent & GLO): Migration and Education
Cinzia Rienzo ( University of Brighton & GLO): Performance of Economic Migrants
Cynthia A. Bansak (St. Lawrence University & GLO), Nicole Simpson (Colgate University & GLO) and Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida & GLO): Immigrants and Their Effects on Labor Market Outcomes of Natives
Background paper to the keynote address of Danny Blanchflower to the EBES 37 & GLO Berlin conference. More information: LINK.
Danny Blanchflower
Author Abstract: Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries – Austria; Belgium; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Netherlands; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Turkey and the UK – over 439 months between January 1985 and July 2021 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals’ fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and their own household financial situation. Fear of unemployment predicts subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. Individuals’ perceptions of the economic situation in the country and their own household finances also predict unemployment 12 months later. Business sentiment (industry fear of unemployment) is also predictive of unemployment 12 months later. The findings underscore the importance of the “economics of walking about”. The implication is that these social survey data are informative in predicting economic downturns and should be used more extensively in forecasting. We also generate a 29 country-level annual panel on life satisfaction from 1985-2020 from the World Database of Happiness and show that the consumer level fear of unemployment variable lowers wellbeing over and above the negative impact of the unemployment rate itself. Qualitative survey metrics were able to predict the Great Recession and the economic slowdown in Europe just prior to the COVID pandemic.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on July 8, 2021, London/UKat 1-2 pm, by Olga Popova, Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) & GLO on Does weather sharpen income inequality in Russia? See below a report, the presentation slides and the full video of the seminar.
Report
Does weather sharpen income inequality in Russia?
GLO Virtual Seminar on July 8, 2021
Olga Popova, Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) & GLO
ABSTRACT Using subnational panel data, this paper analyzes how hot and cold extreme temperatures and precipitation affect economic activity and income distribution in Russia. We account for the intensity of exposure to extreme temperatures by analyzing the impacts of both single and consecutive days with extreme temperature, i.e., heat waves and cold spells, and examine several labor market channels behind those effects. We find that consecutive extremely hot days decrease regional GDP per capita but do not affect income inequality. Poor regions are affected by extreme temperatures relatively more than rich regions. These effects occur because of reallocation of labor from employment to unemployment, an increase in prices in poor regions, and to some extent because of changes in the industrial employment structure, while relative wages are not affected. Extremely cold days, both single and consecutive, as well as extreme precipitation have a limited impact on economic activity and income distribution.
Research Questions and Contribution
Examine the distributional impacts of extreme temperature and precipitation shocks, using the regional panel data from Russia
Account for the intensity of extreme temperatures exposure by simultaneously examining the impacts of both single and consecutive days with extreme temperature
Identify and test the labor market channels behind the inequality‐temperature relationship
Study if the impacts are heterogeneous • Poor vs. rich regions • Hot vs. cold regions
Correlation between days above 25°C and ln(GDP) in Russia
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines an Indian conditional cash transfer program to find an improved sex ratio at birth and better post-birth outcomes like immunization and education.
Author Abstract: Worldwide, 1.6 million girls are “missing” at birth every year. One policy tool to improve the sex ratio is a conditional cash transfer that pays parents to invest in daughters, but existing evidence on their effectiveness is sparse. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we evaluate the Dhanlakshmi scheme, an Indian CCT program that strongly encouraged girl births without restricting fertility. Dhanlakshmi improved the sex ratio at birth, with only a small fertility increase. The girl-birth effect was concentrated among the first two parities and partially persisted after the program was discontinued. Post-birth outcomes like immunization and education also improved.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
SSCIIMPACT FACTOR2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018) SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018) SSCI Journal Citation Indicator (JCI) = 1.20 (2020).JoPE has 20% more citation impact than the average in its category. Rank by JCI in 2020: 98/549, Q1 Economics; 10/49, Q1 in Demography CiteScore (Scopus): 3.9 (2020) SJR (Scimago Journal Rank): 1.89 (2020) IDEAS/RePEc ranking (July 2021) was 77/2,698 journals (based on the Simple Impact Factor 17.327, for Journals and all years)
The Journal of Population of Economicsis an international quarterly that publishes original theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics, household economics, and human resources. This report contains information about the Journal and its editorial process in the past year and some earlier years.
Figure 1: Number of Submissions
The number of submissions has substantially increased over recent years (Figure 1). Between 2011 and 2013, the Journal received about 400 submissions per year; by 2016 the number of submissions neared 500, and in 2020, 871 manuscripts were received. This marks an annual increase of submissions of 41%. Over the decade 2010-2020, the manuscript inflow rose from 337 to a level 2.6 times higher. The additional workload was managed through an efficient desk rejection policy for initial screening.
Figure 2: Origin of Submissions
In line with past years, the largest single share of submissions made in 2020 were from corresponding authors based in Europe (Figure 2). Nearly 40% of all submissions originated from Europe, and over one-third (34%) of submissions came from authors based in Asia and the Middle East. Under one-fifth (17%) of submissions came from authors based in North America. The remaining submissions came from contributors from Africa (6%), Oceania (Australia and New Zealand; 4%), and South and Central America (4%).
Figure 3: Visits by World Region 2019
Figure 3 contains the internet visits to the Journal on the Springer website from the world regions. With over a third of visits coming from North America and 29% from Europe, followed by the Asia-pacific region (22%), the Journal is globally accessed and read.
Figure 4: Days to First Decision
Figure 4 shows that the average number of days between submission and first decision has generally declined over time. Despite a slight uptick in the turnaround time for first decisions between 2015 and 2016, which may be partially attributed to the increased volume of submissions, there was a substantial reduction in turnaround time in following years. In 2020, the average time for first decisions was 24 days. The Journal is committed to keep the time between submission and decisions low, including eventual publication. Since 2013 the Journal has executed a desk rejection policy to provide authors with an early signal for better targeting of their work. The large number of submissions combined with an annual quota of 40 manuscripts keeps the acceptance rates of the Journal very low.
Table 1 shows three acceptance rate measures: 1) the number of manuscripts accepted in a given year as a share of all final decisions made in that year; 2) the number of published articles in a given year as a share of all submissions in that year; and; 3) the number of articles published in a given year divided by the number of the previous year’s submissions.
The number of accepted papers (submitted at any point in time) in a given year as a share of all decisions made in that year has shifted over time. The acceptance rate has declined from 7% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2019, slightly increasing in 2020 to 5.4%. If acceptance rate is measured as the number of published manuscripts as a share of total submissions received in that year, the acceptance rate was slightly higher, at 4.6% in 2020 (at 40 manuscripts from among 871 submissions), falling from 7.1% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019. Measuring the acceptance rate as the number of publications as a share of the number of submissions received in the previous year (2019) would yield a 2020 rate of 6.5%, which is lower than the previous years (7.6% in 2018 and 7.1% in 2019).
Table 1: Acceptance Rates
Index Year
2018
2019
2020
No. accepted / Total No. decisions
7.0%
4.9%
5.4%
No. articles publ. / No. submissions
7.1%
6.5%
4.6%
No. articles publ. / No. subm. prev. year
7.6%
7.1%
6.5%
Table 2 reports the status of papers submitted in the given year for years 2018 – 2020. The Journal’s Impact Factor has increased substantially over time (Figure 5). In 2020 Impact Factor was 2.813, and the 5-year Impact Factor was 3.318. The Journal ranked 104/377 in economics and 10/29 in demography in 2020. As of July 2021, the Journal’s IDEAS/RePEc ranking was 77/2,698 (based on the Simple Impact Factor 17.327, for Journals and all years).
Table 2: Status of Papers Submitted in Particular Year
Outcome/Year
2018
2019
2020
Accept
39
35
47
Revise
68
125
81
Reject
522
551
737
The Journal is ranked in: Social Science Citation Index, Journal Citation Reports/Social Sciences, SCOPUS, EconLit, Google Scholar, EBSCO Discovery Service, ProQuest, CAB International, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, Academic OneFile, Academic Search, Bibliography of Asian Studies, CAB Abstracts, CSA Environmental Sciences, Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, ECONIS, ERIH PLUS, Gale, Global Health, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), JSTOR, OCLC, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Review of Population Reviews, SCImago, and Summon by ProQuest.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Editor-in-Chief Journal of Population Economics
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing the Fourth IESR-GLO Virtual Conference. The conference this year is held from June 24 (Thursday) to June 26 (Saturday), 2021 through Zoom. The theme is Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs. Robert Moffitt and Timothy Smeeding are the keynote speakers. (Feng of IESR right & Zimmermann of GLO left)
Speakers on June 24 from the left: Michael Christl, Jinyuan Yang, Sen Xue Shuaizhang Feng, Robert Moffitt, Klaus F. Zimmermann Feng Chen, Laura V. Zimmermann, Xi Chen
Day 2; June 25:
Program
8.00-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.05 am New York / 1:00-4:05 pm London JUNE 24 (Thursday). Chair:Sen Xue(IESR, Jinan University & GLO)
8.00-8.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.05 am New York / 1:00-1:05 pm London Opening Remarks by Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO) & Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8.05-9.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:05-9.05 am New York / 1:05-2:05 pm London Keynote Lecture:Take-up in Social Assistance Programs: Theory and Evidence Keynote Speaker: Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University)
9.05-9.35 pm Beijing Time / 9:05-9.35 am New York / 2:05-2:35 pm London The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl Nabaneeta Biswas (Marshall University), Christopher Cornwell (University of Georgia) &Laura V. Zimmermann(University of Georgia & GLO). Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 888. Download PDF.
9.35-10.05 pm Beijing Time / 9:35-10.05 am New York / 2:35-3:05 pm London Grandfathers and Grandsons: Social Security Expansion and Child Health in China Jinyuan Yang (Virginia Tech)& Xi Chen (Yale University & GLO)
10.05-10.35 pm Beijing Time / 10:05-10.35 am New York / 3:05-3:35 pm London Trapped in inactivity? Social Assistance and Labour Supply in Austria Michael Christl (European Commission & GLO) & Silvia De Poli (European Commission)
10.35-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 10:35-11.05 am New York / 3:35-4:05 pm London Does Paid Family Leave Save Infant Lives? Evidence from California Feng Chen(Tulane University & GLO)
8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London June 25 (Friday). Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8.00-8.45 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.45 am New York / 1:00-1:45 pm London Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges
8.45-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 8:45-9.30 am New York / 1:45-2:30 pm London South Korea. Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform
9.30-10.15 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.15 am New York / 2:30-3:15 pm London Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate
10.15-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10.15-11.00 am New York / 3:15-4:00 pm London Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges
8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London JUNE 26 (Saturday). Chair: Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO)
8.00-9.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-9.00 am New York / 1:00-2:00 pm London Keynote Lecture:Poverty and Income Support Around the World: China, India and Asia in Comparative Perspective Keynote Speaker: Timothy Smeeding (University of Wisconsin–Madison)
9.00-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 9:00-9.30 am New York / 2:00-2:30 pm London The Health of Disability Insurance Enrollees: An International Comparison Enrica Croda (Ca’Foscari University of Venice & GLO),Jonathan Skinner (Dartmouth College) & Laura Yasaitis (Dartmouth College)
9.30-10.00 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.00 am New York / 2:30-3:00 pm London The Unintended Effect of Medicaid Aging Waivers on Informal Caregiving Xianhua (Emma) Zai(Ohio State University & GLO)
10.00-10.30 pm Beijing Time / 10:00-10.30 am New York / 3:00-3:30 pm London Housing Vouchers, Labor Supply and Household Formation: A Structural Approach Ning Zhang (University of Pittsburgh)
10.30-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10:30-11.00 am New York / 3:30-4:00 pm London The Structure and Incentives of a COVID related Emergency Wage Subsidy Jules Linden (National University Ireland Galway & Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch), Cathal O’Donoghue (National University Ireland Galway), Denisa M. Sologon (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch)
Keynote speakers
Robert Moffitt on June 24; 8.00 pm Beijing Time
Robert A. Moffitt is the Krieger-Eisenhower Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins University and holds a joint appointment at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He obtained his Ph.D. degree from Brown University. His research interests are in the areas of labor economics and applied microeconometrics, with a special focus on the economics of issues relating to the low-income population in the U.S.. A large portion of his research has concerned the labor supply decisions of female heads of family and its response to the U.S. welfare system. He has published on the AFDC, Food Stamp, and Medicaid programs.
Moffitt has served as Chief Editor of the American Economic Review, Coeditor of the Review of Economics and Statistics, Chief Editor of the Journal of Human Resources, and as Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Panel to Evaluate Welfare Reform. He is currently editor of Tax Policy and the Economy.
Moffitt is also a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a recipient of a MERIT Award from the National Institutes of Health, a recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and Past President of the Population Association of America.
Timothy Smeeding on June 26; 8.00 pm Beijing Time
Timothy Smeeding is Lee Rainwater Distinguished Professor of Public Affairs and Economics of the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He was director of the Institute for Research on Poverty from 2008–2014 and was the founding director of the Luxembourg Income Study from 1983-2006. He was named the John Kenneth Galbraith Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science in 2017.
Professor Smeeding’s recent work has been on social and economic mobility across generations, inequality of income, consumption and wealth, and poverty in national and cross-national contexts.
His recent publications include: SNAP Matters: How Food Stamps Affect Health and Well Being (Stanford University Press, 2015); Monitoring Social Mobility in the 21st Century (Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2015); From Parents to Children: The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage (Russell Sage Foundation, 2012); Persistence, Privilege and Parenting: The Comparative Study of Intergenerational Mobility (Russell Sage Foundation, 2011); The Handbook of Economic Inequality (Oxford University Press, 2009); Poor Kids in a Rich Country: America’s Children in Comparative Perspective (Russell Sage Foundation, 2003); and The American Welfare State: Laggard or Leader?, (Oxford University Press, 2010).
Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems
June 25th: 8:pm-11pm Beijing Time/ 8:00am-11am New York / 1:00pm-4:00pm London Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8:00-8:45 pm: Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges
8:45-9:30 pm: Korea. Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform
9:30-10:15 pm: Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate
10:15-11:00 pm: Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges
Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo, and the President of the Japan Institute of Public Finance. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from Queen’s University at Kingston, Canada. His research interests include redistribution, taxation and fiscal federalism.
Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Professor at the Department of Social Welfare, Seoul National University. He is currently working as the President of the Korean Academy of Social Welfare. His research has been focusing on poverty, inequality and social policy.
Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Has started his research on social assistance more than thirty years ago. After finishing his dissertation and habilitation at the University of Freiburg, he held leading positions at international research institutes (ZEW, IZA) and is currently Professor of Economics at FOM Cologne and University of Freiburg. He has been a regular contributor to the media for decades.
Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Professor Emeritus, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. He has published several papers on social assistance in Sweden. Since the 1990s he has also studied various aspects on income among Chinese households.
From the left: Masayoshi Hayashi, Inhoe Ku, Alexander Spermann, and Björn Gustafsson
May 17, 2021: “Human Resources Challenges” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”, all CET/Vienna. See also: Academia Europaea Website; CEU Website. The morning session presented work from the forthcoming Handbook of “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”published by Springer Nature reviewing and evaluating literature to human resources and technology as well as migation and aging. The afternoon session dealt with Covid-19 issues in the context of Mass Antigen Testing as well as female self-employment; presentations were based on GLO Discussion Papers referenced below forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. Both sessions were recorded and the videos are freely accessible below.
PROGRAM
Moderator of the event: Marton Leiszen (Central European University, Skills and Applied Learning Coordinator at the School of Public Policy)
Marton Leiszen
11.00 – 11.10 am Welcome Marton Leiszen (CEU), Martin Kahanec (MAE & CEU), Klaus F. Zimmermann (MAE, UNU-MERIT & GLO)
13.00 – 15.00 pm SESSION II:Covid-19 Research Both presentations were based on fresh and elaborated research papers, which are forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. The Journal has established a tradition of publishing some highly referenced research papers on Covid-19.
13.00 – 14.00 pm Martin Kahanec (MAE & CEU) with Lukas Laffers and Bernhard Schmidpeter The Impact of Mass Antigen Testing for COVID-19 on the Prevalence of the Disease GLO Discussion Paper No. 775, 2021, Journal of Population Economics.
Martin Kahanec
14.00 – 15.00 pm Alexander Kritikos (DIW Berlin & Potsdam University) with Daniel Graeber & Johannes Seebauer COVID-19: A Crisis of the Female Self-employed GLO Discussion Paper No. 788, 2021, Journal of Population Economics.
The Handbook in “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” provides an integrated picture of knowledge about the economic and social behaviors and interactions of human beings on markets, in households, in companies and in societies.A fast evolving project by the GLO with a core basis in labor economics, human resources, demography and econometrics, it will provide a large and complete summary and evaluation of the scientific state of the art. Chapters are developed under the guidance of an engaged team of editors led by the GLO President administered in 30 sections.
to find out how to contribute to this exciting venture with an own chapter.
The Section “Technological Changes and the Labor Market” is directed by Marco Vivarelli, who is also the GLO Cluster Lead of the “Technological Change” area.The Section is just completing its set of 20 published papers now available for use, review and debate.List of the articles and links to access them are below.
The Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics Editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann
Section – Technological Changes and the Labor Market Marco Vivarelli, Section Editor Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Department of Economic Policy, Milan, Italy
Marco Vivarelli
Note: Find abstract links of the articles below the chapter titles.
Digitization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences Melanie Arntz1,2, Terry Gregory3,1, Ulrich Zierahn5,1,4 1 Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, 2University of Heidelberg, 3Institute of Labor Economics, IZA,4CESifo Research Network, 5Utrecht University
Innovation, Employment, and the Business Cycle Bernhard Dachs1, Martin Hud2, Bettina Peters2,3 1AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, 2Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, 3University of Luxembourg
Why do employees participate in innovations? Skills and organisational design issues and the ongoing technological transformation, in production Nathalie Greenan, Silvia Napolitano Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers
Quantity and Quality of Work in the Platform Economy Francesco Bogliacino1, Cristiano Codagnone2,3, Valeria Cirillo4, Dario Guarascio5 1Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2Università degli Studi di Milano, 3Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, 4INAPP, National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies, 5Università degli Studi di Roma
Integration in Global Value Chains and Employment Filippo Bontadini1, Rinaldo Evangelista2, Valentina Meliciani3, Maria Savona1 1University of Sussex, 2University of Camerino, 3University Luiss Guido Carli
GLO Policy Note No. 4 Theme 2: Inequalities and labor markets Theme 3: Future of Work
Working from home and income inequality in the time of COVID-19
A case study of Italy
by Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo, Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, GLO)
Giovanni Gallo (Sapienza University of Rome, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, GLO)
Sergio Scicchitano (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis – INAPP, GLO)
Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
Sergio Scicchitano
In a recent GLO Discussion Paper and just published in the Journal of Population Economics (Bonacini et al., 2021), we explore the potential consequences in labour income distribution of long-lasting increase in Working From Home (WFH) among Italian employees. Results show that an increase in WFH would be associated with an increase in the average labour income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in WFH would favour male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. This “forced innovation” thus risks to exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in the labour market. As a consequence, this study suggests a series of policies aimed at alleviating inequality in the short run and, more importantly, that should play a rebalancing role, in the long run. ____________________
What we should know
To limit the number of deaths and hospitalisations due to the novel coronavirus, most governments decided to suspend many economic activities and restrict people’s freedom of mobility.
In this context, the opportunity to work from home (hereinafter called WFH) became of great importance, since it allows: employees to continue working and thus receiving wages, employers to keep producing services and revenues, and overall limits infection spread risk and pandemic recessive impacts.
Recent estimates for the US show that between February and May 2020 over one third of the labour force switched to WFH, resulting in about half of workers working remotely during the pandemic. Remote workers have quadrupled to 50% of US workforce (Brynjolfsson et al., 2020). Due to uncertainty about the duration of the health emergency and future contagion waves, the role of WFH in the labour market is further emphasized by the fact that it might become a new standard (rather than an unconventional) way of working in many economic sectors, possibly resulting in structural effects on the labour market worldwide (Baert et al., 2020).
Because of the WFH sudden prominence and growth, several studies recently investigated this phenomenon, especially with the objective of identifying the number of jobs that can be done remotely (Adams-Prassl et al., 2020; Dingel and Neiman, 2020; Mongey at al., 2020). However, the literature neglects potential effects of WFH on wage distribution and on income inequality in general.
What we do
This study is a first to show how a future increase in WFH would be related to changes in labour income levels and inequality.
We analyse to what extent an increase in the number of employees who have the opportunity to WFH (or at least an increase in the likelihood their professions can be performed from home) would influence the wage distribution, under the hypothesis that this WFH feasibility shift is long lasting.
We focus on Italy as an interesting case study because before the pandemic, the WFH practice was not widespread and it is the first Western country to adopt a lockdown of economic activities (on March 11). Barbieri et al. (2020) estimated that at least 3 million employees started to WFH because of lockdown measures, and a large number started even earlier due to the closure of schools and universities on March 5. Moreover, Italy was the European country with the lowest share of teleworkers before the crisis (Eurofound and ILO, 2017) and, because of the pandemic, it had to face a massive increase in WFH in a very short time without precise legislation and adequate policies.
Our analysis relies on a uniquely detailed dataset relying on the merge of two sample surveys: the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (INAPP-PLUS) for the year 2018, which contains information on incomes, skills, education level, and employment conditions of approximately 45,000 working-age Italians and the Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) for the year 2013, which provides detailed information on the task-content of occupations. The analysis is conducted through an influence function regression method which allows to estimate the impact of marginal changes on an outcome variable distribution (see the paper for more details on the method).
What we find
Employees with high WFH feasibility levels are more often female, older, highly educated, and among those living in metropolitan areas.
Economic sectors being characterized by greater shares of employees with high WFH feasibility are: Finance and Insurance, Information and Communications, and Other Business Services (e.g., car renting, travel agencies, employment agencies).
Figure 1 shows the wage gap between employees with high and low WFH feasibility and the share of WFH feasibility along the income deciles. The figure clearly shows that the wage gap is increasing along the distribution and reaches highest values in the last two decile groups, as well as the same incidence of high WFH feasibility among employees.
Figure 1 – Incidence of high WFH feasibility and wage gap in favor of employees with high feasibility levels by decile of annual income
What we suggest
WFH risks to exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in the labour market. In this respect, while during the current emergency, policies aimed at alleviating inequality in the short run (e.g. income support measures for the most vulnerable), should be implemented, long-term interventions are even more necessary in order to prevent future rise of inequalities in the labour market. These long-term policies go in three interrelated directions:
The necessary massive reorganisation of work, particularly in the field of reengineering of production processes based on new digital technologies and on the possibility offered in terms of work from home requires new and more widespread skills.
We need to promote through adequate economic and cultural incentives, non-compulsory education for youth coming from poorer households. This would include training courses, which would play an important role in reducing future unequal distribution of benefits related to an increase of WFH opportunities, by increasing human capital and favouring its complementarities with technology.
Our study highlights that while most of the increase in WFH will concern women, the wage premium would be borne by male employees. In this perspective, a possible, non-exhaustive solution could be offered by policies aimed at improving work–family reconciliation, that continues to be shouldered more significantly by women. In particular, we stress the importance of an improving of public childcare and financial support to households with children.
Our study brings out several policy issues for tackling inequalities that will arise in the labour market because of the current pandemic in particular the more than probable increase in Working From Home. Our results are based on Italian data, but they may be useful to policymakers in other countries as well and, in general, where COVID-19 has forced governments and businesses to rethink production processes with a more intense and stable use of WFH. __________________
References
Adams-Prassl, A., Boneva, T., Golin M., Rauh C., (2020). Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13183.
Baert, S. Lippens, L. Moens, E. Sterkens, P. Weytjens, J. (2020), How do we think the COVID-19 crisis will affect our careers (if any remain)?, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 520, Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen.
Barbieri, T., Basso, G., Scicchitano, S., (2020). Italian Workers at Risk during the COVID-19 Epidemic, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 513, Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen.
Bonacini, L., Gallo, G. & Scicchitano, S. (2021). Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. J Popul Econ 34, 303–360.
Brynjolfsson, E., Horton, J. Ozimek, A. Rock, D. Sharma, G. and Yi Tu Ye, H. (2020). Covid-19 and remote work: An early look at U.S. data. NBER Working Paper 27344.
Dingel, J. I. and B. Neiman (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics 189, 104235.
Eurofound and the International Labour Office (2017), Working anytime, anywhere: The effects on the world of work, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, and the International Labour Office, Geneva.
Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., Weinberg. A., (2020). Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?. NBER Working Paper No. 27085.
Note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position. Featured image: Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on April 8, 2021, London/UKat 1-2 pm, by Nicole Simpson, Colgate University and GLO, on Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives? See below a report, a link to the presentation slides and the full video of the seminar.
Report
Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives?
This was an internal meeting of the AE section on special invitation only; a larger number of section members joined during the day as did a larger number of guests from CEU & GLO placed in various parts of the world.
Central European University (CEU), Vienna
November 23, 2020: “COVID-19” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”, all CET/Vienna.
PROGRAM
Ingy Kassem
Starting at 9.00 am; Informal get together, flexible entry….
Moderator of the event: Ingy Kassem (Central European University, Executive Assistant to the Head of the School of Public Policy)
NOTE: Ingy Kassem announced the program parts. The session chairs briefly announced the speakers. The speakers took 20 minutes for presentation. 10 minutes discussion. Luxurious breaks were used for intense communication. Participants brought their own food and drinks…. The meeting was not recorded.
9.30 am; Klaus F. Zimmermann (MAE, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO): Welcome of the Section Chair
9.35 – 9.50 am; Martin Kahanec (MAE, Central European University, Acting Dean of CEU School of Public Policy): Welcome of the Host & and CEU Business
9.50 – 10.40 am; Graziella Bertocchi (MAE, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia): COVID-19, Race, and Redlining Chair: Andreu Mas-Colell (MAE, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
10.50 – 11.40 am; Matthias Sutter (MAE, University of Cologne & Max-Planck Bonn): Nudging or Paying? Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to contain COVID-19 in rural Bangladesh in a randomized controlled trial. Chair:Reinhilde Veugelers(MAE, University of Leuven)
11.50am – 12.40 pm;Anil Duman (Guest, Central European University): Wage Losses and Inequality in Developing Countries: labor market and distributional consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in Turkey Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann(MAE, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
12.40 – 13.50 pm; Lunch with 3 random “seat” allocations…. (virtual, participants brought food and drinks and exchanged views in three changing group rounds)
13.50 – 14.40 pm; Peter Nijkamp (MAE, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam): Corona Impacts on the Hospitality Market. A Space-time Economic Roller-Coaster Analysis Chair:Martin Kahanec (MAE, Central European University)
14.50 – 15.40 pm; Luiz Moutinho (MAE, University of Suffolk): Artificial Intelligence and Control of COVID-19 Chair: Mirjana Radovic-Markovic (MAE, Institute of Economic Sciences)
15.40 – 15.50 pm; “Conference picture – group photo”.
Some visible participants:
15.50 – 16.40 pm; Marcella Alsan(Guest, Harvard University): Civil Liberties in Times of Crises Chair: Amelie Constant (MAE, Princeton University)
16.40 – 16.50 pm; Final remarks: Martin Kahanec& Klaus F. Zimmermann 16.50 – 17.00 pm; “After the hour”: Section Committee only. Group photo.
The end.
AE Section Committee“Economics, Business and Management Sciences”
The GLO Virtual Young Scholars Program (GLO VirtYS) 2020/2021 has started its activity.
In the spirit of the GLO Mission, the GLO VirtYS program’s goal is to contribute to the development of the future generation of researchers, who are committed to the creation of policy-relevant research, are well equipped to work in collaboration with policy makers and other stakeholders, and adhere to the highest standards of academic integrity. This goal is achieved through the process of working on a specific research paper within the duration of the program, which is 9 months, and interact with the GLO VirtYS cohort and advisors.
Under the leadership of GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova, the participants have virtually met with GLO officials and advisors on November 12 for a warm welcome and first interactions. GLO PresidentKlaus F. Zimmermann and GLO Director Matloob Piracha made introductory remarks. GLO VirtYS Program Assistant Yannis Galanakis reported from his experience as a member of the GLO VirtYS 2010/2020 cohort.
The following program participants have been appointed GLO Affiliate:
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) were jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
The conference was held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar. Full Program.Over 300 participants worldwide.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). Links lead to the videos of the keynote lectures. – June 5, 2020. Daron Acemoglu (MIT): A Multi-risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown Large gains from targeted policy! – June 6, 2020. Charles Manski (Northwestern University): Coping with COVID Uncertainties We must take care when performing!
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
Quo Vadis Europe after the European elections? Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann (both Budapest) debated on June 5, 2019 with Elsa Fornero (Turin) and Jonathan Portes (London) the consequences and perspectives for Europe in front of a larger audience assembled at the Central European University in Budapest. Zimmermann, President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), was chairing and moderating the event; Fornero, Kahanec and Portes are GLO Fellows.
The common economic and political development in Europe, in particular labor mobility, labor market reforms, evidence-based policy making and the role of scientists have been key elements of the public debate about the future of Europe. EU-pessimism has become stronger and stronger, and the recent EU elections provide guidance about the potentials for a recovery of the European idea in the face of Brexit and a possible dismantling of European institutions. The panel brought together experienced academic exponents combing research with policy for debate at this critical point of European history.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, George Soros Chair Professor, School of Public Policy, Central
European University (CEU), President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), frequent
advisor to the EU Commission and European governments and Former President of
the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); Chair & Panelist
Populism and anti-globalism is on the rise.
Evidence-based policymaking is losing weight.
The value of migration and international institutions is questioned.
The freedom of academic institutions gets under threat.
Scientist are challenged to analyze and to respond to this development when also their insights are ignored.
Voters move away from centrist parties, who lose majority.
Pro-European liberals and greens become stronger and are now a third force.
Anti-parties (anti-Europe, anti-migration) are stronger, but not dramatically.
This is all a vote for a revival of the European idea.
Facing strong global challenges from Asia, Africa and the USA, Europe needs to stick together and develop from its strength.
More Europe not less is needed in the interest of the European nations and its people.
This implies re-inventing the European idea and export some of its great institutions: social institutions, education and training and labor mobility.
Elsa Fornero, Professor of Economics, University of Turin, Department of
Business and Economics, Scientific Coordinator of CeRP – Center for Research on
Pensions and Welfare Policies and Former Minister of Labor, Social Policies and
Gender Equality in Italy; Panelist
Reforms must live in society with the people – workers, politicians, pensioners, etc. It is not a purely technical problem.
We, technocrats, believed in reforms but the society did not accept them. The society misunderstood the policies as austerity measures.
Economic models are dealing with prosperity, but real policymaking is about elections, which are always around the corner.
The populists saw the weak points of reformists and the discontent of people and exploited them.
Labor mobility and work in Europe should be reestablished as a right of the individuals and this should be in the center of the new Europe.
We should strengthen the civil society –politicians and the elites should go out and talk to the people.
Martin Kahanec, Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy, Central European University (CEU), Budapest, and frequent advisor to the EU Commission; Panelist
These elections showed the discontent between East and West, South and North, globalists and localists
In the 90s the region had a dream – get rid of the Soviets, which unified the societies. And move back to Europe – Schengen, EU, Eurozone, etc. However, after they joined the EU there is a vacuum of dreams. What is our next mission?
Although the lowest election participation was in Slovakia, it is a EU positive country.
Elites and workers feared migration from outside of Europe. But not internal labor mobility.
Internal mobility helps build bridges over the old cleavages, but is also beneficial economically.
Europe should have a policy for external migration which tackles the aging population challenge. The EU needs a migration framework, which is economically profitable, but also needs to have control and be predictable.
Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Senior Fellow, UK in a
Changing Europe, Department of Political Economy, King’s College London, Former
Chief Economist of the UK government, Former Director of the National Institute
of Economic and Social Research; Panelist
The long term forces behind Brexit were not migration, but that the EU is not only an economic but also a political project. And the British felt that their positions in the world were threatened. Sentiments in this direction grew after the world economic crisis.
The Britishattitude towards migration has changed after the referendum, becoming more positive. It has to do with a drop in the migration from the EU, and an increase from the outside. The gaps created were filled with workers from outside of the EU, and the need was better understood.
The lack of control scared people because they wanted the “right” immigration
If one provides a sense of control and of the existing trade-offs, the situation will approve.
Thanks to the failure of May we are likely to have a hard Brexit or to reverse the results and stay in the EU. There is no middle ground anymore. Even if in a second vote the result would be “remain” – the issue would not be settled.
People thought that Brexit would be easy and not painful; they now realize how wrong they were.
If Germany turns into success its refugee immigration, then Germans would send to Europe a tremendously positive example.
From the left during the panel:Klaus F. Zimmermann, Chair, Budapest and Bonn; Jonathan Portes, London; Elsa Fornero, Turin; and Martin Kahanec, Budapest and Vienna.
After the panel during a joint dinner from the left: The Honorable Tanya Cook, USA; CEU Professor Anil Duman and GLO Fellow; Turin Professor and Former Labor Minister Elsa Fornero; CEU Dean and Professor Martin Kahanec; and Klaus F. Zimmermann, George Soros Chair, CEU, and GLO President.
The joint FOM-GLO-KAS Conference about “Climate Change and Human Responses” co-organized by the Global Labor Organization (GLO), FOM University of Applied Sciences and Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) took place on October 31 – November 2 in Hong Kong. (See for detailed reports: DAY ONE, DAY TWO, DAY THREE ) Here are some further impressions (courtesy of KAS):
Conference participants at Day 2 after lunch.
Conference organizers (from the left): GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann, Peter Hefele, Director of the Hong Kong branch of the German Konrad-Adenauer Foundation and Andreas Oberheitmann (FOM, RWI and GLO).
RECENT GLO Discussion Papers on the issue of the conference (freely downloadable):
