Category Archives: Highlight

CEU-GLO-CEPR Workshop on the Reconstruction of Ukraine on December 1, 2022 in Vienna as part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

Hosted by the Department of Public Policy at Central European University (CEU) in collaboration with the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) as a part of the GLO Global Conference 2022.

The destruction and death toll that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inflicted on the country is immense. One day, however, the war will be over. To offer Ukraine a positive prospect of effective, encompassing, and inclusive reconstruction that will not only recreate the status quo ante but will enable the country to upgrade for better, a salient roadmap is needed. One of the first contributions to this effort was the CEPR blueprint on the reconstruction of Ukraine. Following up on this effort, the CEPR has put together a group of scientists around the world, with two lead authors on each chapter – one from the EU and one from Ukraine (although most chapters have more than two authors) – to provide a salient blueprint for the reconstruction from Day 1. CEU and GLO have contributed several experts to this endeavor and will now hold a workshop on the reconstruction of Ukraine covering several chapters broadly related to labor issues on December 1, 2022; 16:30-17:30, at CEU’s Department of Public Policy in Vienna as part of the round the globe, round the clock GLO Global Conference 2022.

Program

16:30-16:35 Welcome

  • Martin Kahanec, Head of the Department of Public Policy; Central European University
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Editor of the CEPR book on the reconstruction of Ukraine; University of California, Berkeley

16:35-16:55 Healthcare

  • Carol Propper, Imperial College London
  • Yuriy Dzyghyr, former Deputy Minister of Finance, Ukraine
  • Kateryna Maynzyuk, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance expert, Ukraine
  • Adrianna Murphy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

16:55-17:15 Education

  • Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Vienna
  • Snizhana Leu-Severynenko, USAID Economic Resilience Activity
  • Anna Novosad, SavED, Ukraine, former Minister of Education and Science, Ukraine
  • Yegor Stadnyi, Kyiv School of Economics, former Deputy Minister of Education and Science, Ukraine

17:15-17:35 Labor Market

  • Giacomo Anastasia, Bocconi University, Milan
  • Tito Boeri, Bocconi University, Milan
  •  Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  •  Oleksandr Zholud, National Bank of Ukraine

17:35-17:55 Business Environment

  • Yegor Grygorenko, Deloitte Ukraine
  • Monika Schnitzer, Ludwig-Maximilian University, Munich

17:55-18:15 EU Enlargement

  • Ivan Miklos, MESA 10 and CEU, advisor to the Slovak President, Moldovan Prime Minister, and National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine
  • Pavlo Klimkin, Centre for National Resilience and Development, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine

18:15-18:30 Discussion and Closing Remarks

            Martin Kahanec, CEU

Bio’s of all speakers see CEU website.

Department of Public Policy (DPP), Central European University

DPP is a multi-disciplinary and global public policy Department at the Central European University in Vienna aiming to create an educational experience that involves not only the acquisition of skills and knowledge but also the cultivation of a mindset that emphasizes social entrepreneurship, innovation, cultural awareness and a commitment to the public good. DPP offers four master’s degrees in public policy, and the public policy track of the Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science program. The Department boasts a team of outstanding resident faculty, world-class visiting faculty made up of top researchers, and practitioners in the public policy field who bring a wide array of academic and practical subjects to DPP’s diverse classroom.

Central European University (CEU) is a research-intensive university specializing in the social sciences, humanities, law, public policy and management. It is accredited in the United States, Austria and Hungary. CEU’s mission is to promote academic excellence, state-of-the-art research, research-based teaching and learning and civic engagement, in order to contribute to the development of open societies. CEU offers bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral programs and enrolls more than 1,400 students from over 100 countries. The teaching staff consists of resident faculty from over 50 countries and prominent visiting scholars from around the world. The language of instruction is English.

Center for Economic Policy Research

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) was founded in 1983 to enhance the quality of economic policy-making within Europe and beyond, by fostering high quality, policy-relevant economic research, and disseminating it widely to decision-makers in the public and private sectors. Drawing together the expertise of its Research Fellows and Affiliates, CEPR initiates, funds and coordinates research activities and communicates the results quickly and effectively to policymakers and other decision makers around the world. The Centre is an independent, non-profit organization and takes no institutional policy positions. 

Global Labor Organization

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is a global, independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that has no institutional position. The GLO functions as an international network and virtual platform for researchers, policy makers, practitioners and the general public interested in scientific research and its policy and societal implications on global labor markets, demographic challenges and human resources. These topics are defined broadly in line with its Mission to embrace the global diversity of labor markets, institutions, and policy challenges, covering advanced economies as well as transition and less developed countries.

Ends;

New Book: China, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Century of Great Migration. Interview with author Michele Bruni.

New book just published analyzing the historical roots and long-term future implications of the tremendous demographical changes Europe, Asia and Africa will go through. The story uses China as the ideal case study to illustrate the major developments and implications, not only because of its history, institutional setting, and international relationships but because in the next decades it will be the country most affected by the largest shortage of labor. We discuss major points with the author in an interview (see below).

  • NOTE – Talk to the author. Michele Bruni will present highlights of his book during a public online panel (free Zoom access) on December 3, 2022, 13.30 – 15.30 CET (Berlin time) on “China in the World Economy” during the GLO Global Conference 2022. The free access online link will be provided at the GLO website and here in time.

Michele Bruni is a member of the Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) of the University of Modena and Reggio and a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

  • For more than thirty years, he has participated in and led numerous EU, ILO, IOM, and ADB development and labor market analysis projects in China, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe.
  • His research focuses on the development of stock-flow models and their application to the analysis of labor markets, education, and migration.
  • Michele holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley and a Laurea in Political Science from the University of Florence.
  • He has taught at the universities of Calabria, Bologna, and Modena and was a visiting professor at the universities Jyväskylä, Le Salle, and Shanghai.
  • He is the author of “China, The Belt and Road Initiative, and the Century of Great Migration.”

INTERVIEW

Michele, this is a remarkable book with a secular perspective; very relevant, with many important and fascinating insights. I have learned a lot. Let us elaborate on some of your findings and conclusions:

GLO: What brought you to population research and the economics of China?

Michele Bruni: It is a long story. Despite demography being central to my research, I did not formally study it at the university, but I instead accidentally encountered it later in life.

During the early 1970s, one of the most influential explanations for Italy’s youth unemployment was De Cecco’s Ricardian thesis according to which the industrial sector prefers hiring prime age males as they were the most productive due to production demanding punctuality, accuracy, stamina, and reliability. However, my friend Franco Franciosi and I discovered that construction rather than manufacturing was responsible for the increase in prime-age male employment. Subsequently, we thought that the right way to identify the cause of youth unemployment was to estimate first time (generational) entries into employment and analyze the structure of these entries by sector, sex, age group, and educational level. This led us to develop a generational stock-flow model of the labor market based on the analysis of the demographic processes taking place inside the labor market (you can find this model in the book as the “China’s theater” apologue).

The empirical results of our model were at the same time surprising and obvious. We discovered that people enter into the labor force when they are young (normally immediately after the education and training phase), generally age inside the labor market, and then exit when they are old. Moreover, the average age of entry depends on the educational level requested by each sector and therefore is the lowest in construction, the highest in services, and intermediate in manufacturing; and, at that time, the average age structure of generational entries and exits of men and women were notably different. Finally, in a country whose social values and institutional setting aim to ensure the full employment of the main breadwinners, the high rate of youth unemployment is due to the labor demand in terms of flow not being sufficient to accommodate the young people entering the labor force for the first time: this is the result of the interaction between the demographic sphere that determines the generational entries into the labor market and exits from employment, and the economic sphere that determines the number of additional jobs.

In the mid-1980s, when the presence of migrants in Italy was still marginal, the stock-flow model allowed me to produce demographic and labor market scenarios that demonstrated that Italy’s supply of labor was shortly going to become largely insufficient. I also realized that the restrictive migration policies enacted by Western countries were totally unjustified as they prevented the arrival of people badly needed by the production system. My academic interest then became more and more political and humanitarian since I realized and hoped that a correct demo-economic analysis of migration flows could not only explain and forecast migrations, but also prevent the thousands of deaths caused by prejudices and wrong theoretical analyses of migration flows.

My conclusions were reinforced by UNDESA’s 2000 report Replacement migration: is it a solution to a declining and aging population. It broke an almost fifty-year-long dogma by courageously and bluntly stating that mass migration is unavoidable, something of which I am also convinced. I felt that the enormous amount of criticism levied at the report and its author, prof. Joseph Chamie, was completely undeserved and spoke volumes on academia’s inertia as well as the politically sensitive nature of migration.

Finally, in 2006, I moved to China where I began to study its labor market, demographic trends, and their connection to the country’s economic performance.

In conclusion, my book is not only a summary of my ideas on demography, labor market, and migration flows, but also the result of a lifelong academic and personal journey.

GLO: You have written a history of population from a Chinese perspective. What are the largest demographic challenges for the world today and what is specific to the Chinese case?  

Michele Bruni: This century, our planet will witness a historical event, the end of a more than 250-year-long phase of explosive demographic growth. According to the 2022 World Population Prospects the planet’s total population is projected to peak at 10.4 billion by around 2085 and then decline; and even more importantly, the planet’s working age population is expected to increase by an additional 1.2 billion in the next 50 years before decreasing in the following decades.

Several positive considerations can be drawn. Firstly, a negative trend of the total population will reduce the GDP growth required to maintain GDP per capita constant, and therefore decrease the amount of natural resources used and our impact on the environment. It will also reduce the number of jobs required to keep the employment rate constant and provide the opportunity to confront the poverty, desperation, and moral debasement that derive from the lack of job opportunities.

Unfortunately, the situation is far more complex since over the past 200 years, the demographic transition (DT) has impacted countries around the world at different times resulting in them being at different stages of the DT. The richest and more developed states have already entered the “last” phase characterized by the decline of the working age population; many developing states will soon join them. Simultaneously, the poorest countries are experiencing and will continue to experience an explosive growth of their working age population. As a consequence, there will be an unprecedented demographic polarization between an increasing number of countries affected by a structural shortage of labor and a progressively aging population, and the poorest countries instead affected by a structural excess of labor.

Therefore, the DT is generating two opposite demographic challenges. Rich countries, to continue on a path of economic growth, will have to deal with both a decreasing labor force and an increasing number of elderly people. On the other hand, poor countries will have to manage a labor supply increasing at rates that cannot be realistically absorbed by economic growth. However, it is evident that these two situations are complementary and that it is possible to transform these regional problems into a global opportunity. This would require a political conversion to a rational approach to policymaking. Potential arrival countries should accept that it is in their economic and political interest to co-manage migration flows with potential departure countries in a manner quantitatively and qualitatively coherent with the needs of their labor market.

Despite not having achieved the status of developed country, China belongs to the group of potential arrival countries and is going to be affected by the largest absolute shortage of labor and an extremely fast aging process. While it is evident that Chinese society is not immune to xenophobia and racism, Beijing’s institutional setting, capacity to pragmatically pursue long-term goals, and desire to assume international leadership could lead it to adopt measures in contrast with the feelings of its citizens but beneficial to the country as a whole, such as in the case of the one-child policy.

GLO: Please elaborate a bit on the African challenge for Europe and Asia!

Michele Bruni: Is Africa the land of opportunities or the cradle of a demographic nightmare? Is it the new frontier for business, as suggested by CNN, or the place where children die since hospitals cannot afford pills that cost a few cents, as claimed by Save the Children?

What demographic data clearly shows is that, in absence of emigration, from now to the end of this century Africa’s working age population will register a fourfold increase bringing it from 15% to 43% of the world’s total working age population. Concurrently, the working age population of all the other continents will decline. Economically developed countries should therefore start to immediately ponder the economic, social, and political implications of these trends.

It should be evident that no matter how attractive Africa could be for foreign direct investment, it is unrealistic to assume that the continent will be able to create in the next 80 years the 1.3 billion jobs necessary to keep Africa’s rate of employment at an acceptable level (such a rate of job creation would imply outperforming China’s economic miracle). Thus, the only reasonable approach to avoid turning Africa into a demographic time-bomb is to absorb its structural excess of labor, especially since such a move would allow developed countries to deal with their structural shortage of labor.

Let me also add that humanitarian organizations should consider that too often saving the life of a child condemns them to live in dismal situations, to scavenge on rubbish damps to survive, to be easy prey of criminal groups or, if they are lucky, to be exploited by companies coming  from the same countries to which he own his  life. Saving the life of a child should also create the responsibility to make that child able to go to school, find a decent job, and face old age with dignity. This is only possible with a more rational and humane international order and approach to migration.

GLO: How do you judge China’s one-child policy today? Is it possible to further stabilize fertility decline?

Michele Bruni: Let me start placing the one-child policy in the international context in which it was conceived and adopted. The first demographic projections produced after WWII made evident that poor Asian countries, and especially India, were undergoing an unprecedented population explosion, caused not by an increase in fertility, but rather by a less pronounced decline of the crude birth rate with respect to the crude death rate. It was assumed that this situation would create poverty, poverty would beget communism, that in turn would destabilize the capitalist order. Moreover, the prevailing opinion shared by the leading demographers and economists of that era was that demographic growth could not be matched by economic growth and that the only possible solution was to reduce fertility. Therefore, in 1966, US President Lyndon B. Johnson decided to make foreign development aid dependent on the adoption of family planning programs, a decision immediately replicated by Japan, Sweden, and the UK. It should be noted that the Johnson administration’s decision preceded the publication of Paul and Anne Erlich’s Population Bomb (1968) and of Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome (1972). The result was a dramatic increase in the funding available to international organizations and private institutions in charge of implementing population policies. It also paved the way for India’s infamous campaign of compulsory sterilization headed by Sanjay Gandhi, during the state of National Emergency (1975-77) declared by his mother, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

In the meantime, China alternated between differing even contrary policies. On one hand, Mao and other high-ranking members of the CCP officially endorsed the pro-natalist Marxian position and in 1974 China helped lead Third World countries at the Bucharest Conference against the US position, under the slogan of “development is the best contraceptive”. On the other hand, family planning services were introduced in 1953 and, after an interruption during the Great Leap Forward, continued in earnest after 1964. Later on, Chinese families were urged to delay the birth of their first child, to lengthen the interval between children, and to reduce their number, a campaign encapsulated by the slogan “later, longer, fewer.” Data suggests that Chinese families shared this attitude as during the 1970s the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 6 to 3 children per woman.

It was in this context, characterized also by the new pragmatic and “scientific” atmosphere brought about by Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, that Beijing adopted the one-child policy, which was not an improvised measure imposed by a government devoid of humanity, but the expression of an ideology that put the nation’s interests above those of the individual. It was based on a substantially correct demographic projection made by one of China’s leading scientists and came after a debate that involved numerous national and provincial leaders, many of whom were openly against the measure. In the 1990s, China TFR fell below the replacement level of 2 children per woman, and it has remained below that figure since, despite the abolition of the one-child policy in 2016 and the subsequent measures aimed to foster fertility.

How to judge this measure? Firstly, I believe that the policy must be judged in its ideological context. At the same time, it is very difficult to assess the one-child policy’s impact with regard to the fall in fertility since at the moment of its implementation China’s TFR was already below three, in the 1990s it became a 1.5 child policy, and that other Asian countries experienced similar trends. Finally, there is no doubt that the law was kept long after it was not needed.

What is however undeniable is that the rapid fall of its TFR assisted China in lifting 800 million people out of poverty (and help to reduce global inequality as well), in surmounting an educational challenge concentrated in less than three decades, and then in facing the employment challenge with an educated labor force.

GLO: Fertility declines with development, this is the historical experience on a global level. Will fertility ever rise again with development?

Michele Bruni: In physics, an equivalent question would be asking whether gravity will one day start repelling apples from the Earth’s surface. However, while it is normally assumed that the laws of physics do not change because of the immutable nature of the universe, the laws “discovered” by social scientists do not have this universal and atemporal validity. Even assuming that human nature does not change, what is changing all the time is the demographic, socioeconomic, political, ideological, and technological context in which mankind lives and operates. Therefore, we cannot totally discard the hypothesis of a future characterized by a positive correlation between economic growth and fertility.

Before the end of this century, the Earth will enter a new demographic phase characterized by a declining population as a result not only of economic development but also of numerous other concomitant factors, including the recently acquired capacity to control the reproductive process. I suspect that this new phase will differ from our present one in numerous aspects.

The first interesting novelty is that it will be possible to improve the wellbeing of mankind while decreasing production, a feat that will however require us to drive the economic system “downhill” challenging the inbuilt inertia of the capitalist order that sees economic growth as a “natural goal.” The second is that this future society will be characterized by small families that could have fully interiorized the idea that small is beautiful. Moreover, while I doubt that the weight of reason and science will play a greater role in decision-making, it is possible that in the wake of the environmental disasters that are inevitably going to affect the planet in the next decades, humanity will have a deeper awareness of the scars that our growing population and hunger for raw material have inflicted on the Earth and will allow nature to reconquer a fair share of the planet. However, we cannot discard the possibility that some tribes produce large families. There is also a third science fiction-style possibility, that technological progress alongside the acquisition of different moral norms will bring to an externalized system of reproduction based on the quantitative and qualitative needs of the labor market.

The future is not in the hands of god, but it is the outcome of our actions, the result of chosen objectives and ways to reach them in a given material and ideological context. Therefore, economists and demographers should avoid making forecasts, limiting themselves to providing realistic scenarios to help policymakers find the best policies to reach their goals.

That said, personally I am rooting for a society that will choose to continue along a path of demographic degrowth paralleled by a degrowth in production, that aims to reduce all types of inequalities as much as possible and allow our planet to heal the deep wounds we have inflicted on it during last centuries.

GLO: What does it take to “manage” migration? Will mankind ever develop a successful institutional setting?

Michele Bruni: I believe that the most difficult step to manage (im)migration is in fact a preliminary, ideological step: to accept the idea that the labor market can be affected by a structural shortage of labor, that is a shortage that cannot be dealt with by market forces or active labor policies. This possibility is obstructed by the dominant paradigm. Moreover, this position finds support in the deeply rooted irrational – and therefore immune to any scientific refutation – prejudices successfully promoted by many populist and nationalist parties. These prejudices have also played a relevant role in assisting them to reach national prominence or even, as in the case of Italy, power.

Once a potential arrival country accepts this very simple and, in my opinion, self-evident position, these following more technical steps could be in order: estimate how many migrants are needed by educational level and skill; agree with one or more countries affected by a structural excess of labor to organize and co-manage migration flows quantitatively and qualitatively coherent with their needs; organize the transfer of migrants from the country of origin to the place where they are needed; and arrange for their placement in the labor market while supporting the social integration of their families. A fundamental aspect of my proposal deriving from my demand side explanation of migration is that recipient countries should finance and give technical support to the education and training systems of departure countries. In this way they would not only recognize the economic value of human capital they would be draining from departure countries, but this would also ensure that the migrants will have the skills they need.

A shortage of labor is already affecting North America, the EU, and numerous Asian countries and will affect many countries part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the book, I suggest that China could take advantage of its leading position in the BRI and champion the adoption of immigration policies by member countries with a structural shortage of labor in accordance with member countries with a structural excess of labor, while at the same time providing departure countries with the financial, human, and organizational resources necessary to give migrants relevant skills. Since education and training represent a key to development, this rational migration policy should assist with the socioeconomic development of departure countries and eventually help them converge with the developed world. Obviously, this suggestion is valid for other groups of countries which, as in the case of the EU, already have institutions that could coordinate the migration policy I suggest. As I have already stated, what stands in the way of a rational and humane migration policy are a misleading economic paradigm and prejudices embedded not only in right-wing parties but also across a large section of academia.

GLO: Given the global demographic challenges: How can China avoid mass immigration? In your book, you argue it cannot, why? It has already seen the greatest internal migration flows ever in mankind. Would it not be the right political strategy to avoid immigration to not face rising societal instability? And if a country can do this, then would it not be China?

Michele Bruni: Starting in 2013 China’s working age population started to decrease and from 2020 to 2050 will decline by around 174 million (-17.6%). In an intermediate labour market scenario, that assumes a constant rate of participation and a modest increase of the employment level (8% over the 30-year period), China will be affected by a shortage of more than 220 million workers (28% of initial employment), that translates to around 250 million migrants. It is evident that this would generate enormous societal problems and China should adopt all the measures that can reduce the inflow of foreign workers. The question is: will these measures be sufficient to avoid mass immigration?

A labor shortage can be confronted by increasing the labor supply and by reducing labor demand. Starting from the supply side, increasing fertility would seem the most obvious answer to a declining labor force. Nevertheless, only very few countries (France in primis) through the adoption of complex and well-organized sets of pro-natalist measures have been able to achieve significant results. Moreover, while it is evident that any country should try to reduce the gap between births and deaths to avoid the destabilizing effects of an excessive natural demographic degrowth, any positive impact on the number of births would only affect the labor market after 20 years.

I have further argued that China cannot expect relevant results from other supply measures. The participation rate assumed by the intermediate scenario is already high and a further increase looks improbable. Removing the existing obstacles to internal mobility is certainly socially and economically advisable, but it will not significantly reduce the country’s national labor shortage. The lengthening of life expectancy will soon impose raising the legal age of retirement. However, this measure (that increases the number of generations co-present in the labor market, while decreasing the numbers in retirement) will have a limited and temporary impact on the labor shortage for two main reasons. Firstly, an increasing number of people above retirement age are already voluntarily remaining in the labor force; secondly, the increase in the number of elderly workers will be neutralized by a decline in the number of young workers since technological progress will determine an increase in the duration of the education and training phase.

The demand side measures that can be adopted are mainly two: delocalization and technological progress. Delocalization has been already adopted by many countries experiencing a situation of a structural shortage of labor, Italy and Japan being relevant examples, but no country has been able to solve the problem of a labor shortage in this way. Moreover, once we consider that not everything can be produced abroad and that numerous other countries with more international experience will be adopting the same approach, it becomes evident that China cannot hope to resolve its shortage of labor through this policy.

Let us finally consider the solution favored by many Chinese economists, technological progress such as AI and automation and its resulting increase in productivity. However, I have argued that we should not expect technological innovation to be the hoped-for Deus ex machina. Empirical evidence shows that once we adopt a dynamic perspective (i.e., we take into consideration also second-order effects) new technologies do not have a negative impact on the employment level, but rather lead to the substitution of labor for routine tasks with skilled labor that can perform non-routine cognitive tasks, and therefore with a higher level of educational attainment. More generally, I would argue that all the previous waves of technological change, starting with the initial Industrial Revolution, have expanded the employment level because while new technologies do destroy many jobs, they also create new jobs due to the boundless capacity of the human mind to invent new needs and the new goods necessary to satisfy them.

I believe that China’s internal migration is in fact the proof of my thesis. The unlimited supply of labor present in the countryside and in the poor inland provinces moved (was attracted) to where the local supply of labor was not sufficient to face an expanding labor demand. It also seems to prove the capacity of China to “manage” huge migration flows (the number of China’s internal migrants exceeds threefold international economic migration flows). According to my computations, the next thirty years’ labor needs are in line with the internal migrations that have taken place in China in the last thirty years. The difference is that potential migrants will not be Han Chinese. I sincerely hope that Beijing will recall that the apex of Chinese civilization was reached during the Han dynasty, an era characterized by a multi-ethnic, industrious, and creative society.

GLO: In your book, you identify a strategic advantage of China over other Asian and over European countries with similar demographic challenges: What are your suggestions for a rational and humane Chinese migration policy?

Michele Bruni: I think it is fair to state that China, while enjoying some advantages, also shares numerous disadvantages with respect to other Asian and European countries affected by a structural shortage of labor. More specifically, a large share of Chinese citizens have the same prejudices against migrants and xenophobic feelings as their Western counterparts. Furthermore, despite the different ideological background, economic thinking in China is dominated by the neoclassical paradigm.

Regarding advantages, as I have already suggested, when confronted with ”survival issues” China has been capable of embracing a pragmatic attitude and adopting measures that, while beneficial to the country as a whole, go against the feelings of its citizens. I hope that this pragmatic approach to policymaking will remain despite the increasingly ideological turn that Xi Jinping’s leadership is taking. Finally and most importantly, Beijing’s policies are guided by a long-term vision of the goals it wishes to reach both domestically and internationally and by an institutional setting that prioritizes efficiently achieving them.

GLO: Is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a threat or a boon for the world? In your book you argue that it will be more positive than negative, since it began in a non-competitive setting. But the upcoming reality may be quite different. New competition between the systems, struggles for world economic, technological, and military leadership, excessive burdens and dependencies for the countries involved.

Michele Bruni: The BRI is an instrument and like many instruments it can be used to do good deeds or bad deeds. I think that Beijing would prefer to stick to its long-term internal and international goals and as I have suggested the BRI could play a central role in helping China achieve them. However, there is no doubt that totally different outcomes are possible since the future depends on the complex and interwoven relationships between actors with conflicting goals. Therefore, also in this case, I prefer to be coherent with my ideas on what role an economist should play. I will therefore avoid making forecasts and continue building alternative scenarios that could eventually help make rational and humane choices.

GLO: The human factor looks rather marginal in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) so far: Will this change and how?

Michele Bruni: For the moment the human factor has certainly played a marginal role in the BRI. My analysis suggests that the demographic trends that will affect BRI countries in the following decades could dramatically change this situation.

The total population of the estimated 65 original members of the BRI amounts to 4.8 billion people, 62% of the world population. In absence of migration, it is projected to reach a maximum of 5.6 billion in 2060 (when its share of world population will be down to 55.5%) to then decline progressively. The working age population will start to decrease 15 years earlier (in 2045) after reaching a maximum of 3.6 billion. However, as in the case of the planet, in the next 25 years the growth of the working age population of BRI countries will be the sum of the negative contributions of 24 countries including China, Thailand, Poland, Russia, and Ukraine, and the positive contributions of other countries, in particular Asian states, like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Afghanistan, but also African ones like Egypt.

I have argued that this situation will inevitably determine huge migration flows of up to 250 million people in the next 25 years and that it would be in the economic and political interest of China to champion organizing migration flows between BRI countries in a rational way. This would imply estimating the number of workers needed by the countries affected by a structural shortage of labor by educational level and skill typology. I have further argued that to maximize the positive impact of migration flows for both arrival and departure countries, the former and especially China should finance the education and training system of the latter and provide, when necessary, technical support. Departure and arrival countries should then organize the transfer of migrants, something which is currently very often in the hands of criminal organizations, while the latter should be in charge of their placement and the social integration of their families.

GLO: Why will China dominate the global order in this century? Has the Russian war against Ukraine not changed this perspective?

Michele Bruni: The scenario of China dominating the world depicted by Martin Jacques in 2010 is becoming more and more probable. In 2017, China became the world’s largest economy measured at PPP and has since then progressively distanced itself from its main competitors, the US and the EU whose GDP (measured at PPP constant 2017 international dollars) in 2021 was equal respectively to 84% and 79% that of China, despite the economic effects of China’s zero-COVID strategy. A further indication comes from China’s extremely fast technological progress promoted and supported by a growing number of highly educated and competent young people formed by universities whose international rankings are also steadily improving. However, what in my opinion makes this perspective very probable is the comparison between a country that has the capacity to establish long-term plans and an institutional setting that prioritizes efficiently pursuing them, and a Western world constantly engrossed in short-term issues and whose goals and the policies to achieve them are constantly being reshuffled.

In this perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war seems to me a short-term, albeit very dramatic, event that, as has been the case for the Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen wars and the never-ending conflict in Syria, will not have a significant impact on China-US competition. It could even be argued that the war in Ukraine, while having a negative impact on Western economies where growth is slowing down due to the energy crisis and anti-inflation measures, could benefit China’s economy and global position.

Regarding Russia and Ukraine, let me recall that before the pandemic and the war, their total population and, more importantly, their working age population were in decline. The war is having an extremely heavy impact on fertility and on the working age population in both countries and will therefore modify both their short-term demographic situation and long-term demographic evolution. This will have serious implications that have not yet been considered. The first is that most probably when the war will be over, both countries will not be able to return to pre-war levels of production including of goods essentials for other countries, especially African ones. Let me also note that while Western countries are already promising a “Marshall Plan” of around 400 billion dollars to rebuild the country, nobody is asking whether Ukraine will have the labor force necessary to do so.

GLO: Given the current struggle for a new world order: Will globalization end? China does not want it, but can it be avoided? Or will it be just different?

Michele Bruni: I believe there is no going back from the international interconnection that currently characterizes the world. In many cases, such with natural resources, cutting ties would be impossible, in others it would have extremely negative economic impacts on economic growth and consumers. However, the decreasing economic weight of Western economies and the parallel increase in economic weight of developing countries opens the way to a multipolar globalized planet in which the role of Western countries and therefore the impact of their decisions will become less and less relevant. It is to be hoped that the new international order will try to reduce the negative aspects of today’s globalization, and that globalization will also include labor since it is the only way for the poorest countries to escape the poverty trap born from demographic trends and the “wall” policies dominating the planet.

******

Michele Bruni was interviewed by  Klaus F. ZimmermannGLO President.

Ends;

Inequality and Public Policy in Asia. Session as part of the GLO Global Conference 2022 on December 3. Details.

The online session Inequality and Public Policy in Asia is part of the 2022 GLO Global Conference (1-3 December 2022) scheduled for December 3 (1-3 am CET Berlin = 8-10 am Malaysia) free to participate through Zoom link without prior registration. The link is provided on the GLO Website and here:

Join Zoom Meeting ROOM II
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83176423118?pwd=WHM3M0l5ekxycTFsQXdZTGFjcE01dz09

Click this link at the proper time on the meeting day (see below) to join the session directly.

Session Overview: This session brings scholars from Southeast Asia to deliberate on the state of income inequality in the region. Papers selected are part of a GLO special issue edited by GLO SE Asia Cluster Lead, in collaboration with Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia. The session will be also attended by all other contributors to the Special Issue as well as Chief Editor of the Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia and other members of the editorial team.

Chair & Moderator: M Niaz Asadullah, Monash University Malaysia

Date:               03 Dec (Saturday) 2022

Schedule:        8-10 am Malaysia (6-8 am Bangladesh; 12-2 am UK; 1-3 am Germany)

8.00-8.10 am (Malaysia time)Opening remarks: Guest Editor of JEM special issueInequality & Public Policy in Asia  
   
8.10-8.30 am (Malaysia time)Paper 1: The Resurgence of Income Inequality in Asia-Pacific: The Role of Trade Openness, Educational Attainment and Institutional Quality  Presenter: Sharon Koh Geok May Monash University Malaysia   Email: koh.geokmay@monash.edu
   
8.30-8.50 am (Malaysia time)Paper 2: Structural Transformation, Income Inequality, and Government Expenditure: Evidence from International Panel DataPresenter: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand   Email: wannaphong@ru.ac.th  
   
8.50-9.10 am (Malaysia time)Paper 3: What Does Data on Functional Income Distribution Tell Us About Trends in and Correlates of Income Inequality in the Asia-Pacific?            Presenter: Selim Raihan, Dhaka University & SANEM, Bangladesh   Email:selim.raihan@gmail.com
   
9.10-9.30 am (Malaysia time)Paper 4: The Spanish Flu Pandemic and Income Distribution in Java: Lessons from the 1920sPresenter: A. Gunadi Brata, Atma Jaya Yogyakarta University, Indonesia   Email: gunadi.brata@uajy.ac.id  
   
9.30-9.50 am (Malaysia time)Q&A Session 
   
9.50-9.55 am (Malaysia time)Group Photo Session     
9.55-10.00 am (Malaysia time)Closing remarks: Editor-in-Chief of JEM  Dr Mariani Abdul-Majid Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia   Email: mariani@ukm.edu.my

Ends;

2023 Kuznets Prize Awarded to Garima Rastogi & Anisha Sharma for their research on abortions in India.

Garima Rastogi (University of Oxford) and Anisha Sharma (Ashoka University) receive the 2023 Kuznets Prize for their article “Unwanted daughters: the unintended consequences of a ban on sex-selective abortions on the educational attainment of women”, which was published in the Journal of Population Economics (2022), 35, pp. 1473-1516. The annual prize honors the best article published in the Journal of Population Economics in the previous year. The prize will be awarded in a public online event during the GLO Global Conference on December 1, 2022. 

Biographical Abstracts

Garima Rastogi is a student in the MPhil in Economics program at the University of Oxford. She has completed her undergraduate education with honours from Ashoka University, India. Her research is primarily in applied microeconomics. She uses empirical methods to explore questions at the intersection of gender, education, and health, in the context of developing countries. She is currently working on her dissertation, which explores the role of a coercive sterilization policy in India on current family-planning practices.  

Anisha Sharma is a development economist at Ashoka University, India. Her research interests are in labour economics, the economics of health and education, and public policy, with a particular interest in gender gaps across these dimensions. One strand of her research focuses how people make decisions about human capital investments and how gendered social norms influence their choices. Another strand of her research relates to the constraints on firms from hiring women, as well as the socioeconomic factors that constrain women’s labour supply. Dr. Sharma received a PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford, where she was a Rhodes Scholar.

Paper Abstract

Video of paper presentation.

We study whether legal restrictions on prenatal discrimination against females leads to a shift by parents towards postnatal discrimination, focusing on the impact on educational attainment. We exploit the differentially timed introduction of a ban on sex-selective abortions across states in India. We find that a legal restriction on abortions led to an increase in the number of females born, as well as a widening in the gender gap in educational attainment. Females born in states affected by the ban are 2.3, 3.5, and 3.2 percentage points less likely to complete grade 10, complete grade 12, and enter university, respectively, relative to males. These effects are concentrated among non-wealthy households that lacked the resources to evade the ban. Investigating mechanisms, we find that the relative reduction in investments in female education was not driven by family size but because surviving females became relatively unwanted, whereas surviving males became relatively more valued, leading to an increasing concentration of household resources on them. Discrimination is amplified among higher-order births and among females with relatively few sisters. Finally, these negative effects exist despite the existence of a marriage market channel through which parents increase investments in their daughters’ education to increase the probability that they make a high-quality match. This suggests that policymakers need to address the unintended welfare consequences of interventions aimed at promoting gender equity.

More about the Kuznets Prize & previous prize winners.

Further research & video presentations on abortions in the Journal of Population Economics:

Ends;

The Fifth IESR-GLO Conference (August 29-30, 2022) on Social Policy Under Global Challenges: Now – Program, Video & Event Pictures.

The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) were jointly organizing the Fifth IESR-GLO Conference online.

  • Beijing Time August 29 to August 30, 2022 through Zoom
  • Theme: Social Policy Under Global Challenges
  • Keynote speakers: Lisa Cameron and Junsen Zhang

The IESR-GLO annual conference is aimed to provide a platform for scholars and experts to exchange ideas on the current pressing economic issues through presentations of high-quality academic papers and policy discussions. Previous IESR-GLO Conferences have covered topics such as the Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs in 2021, Economics of Covid-19 in 2020 and on the labor markets in Belt and Road countries in 2019.

The event was attended by over 60 scholars from institutions worldwide.

Fifth IESR-GLO Joint Conference Program

August 29 – August 30, 2022

PDF of Program IESR Website
VIDEO DAY 1 VIDEO VIDEO DAY 2 (Keynote Zhang incomplete)

August 29 (Monday)

15:00-18:00 Beijing Time/ 9:00-12:00 German Time 8:00-11:00 London Time/17:00-20:00 Melbourne Time

Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)

Lisa Cameron
Beijing TimeGerman TimeLondon TimeMelbourne Time
15:00-15:409:00-9:408:00-8:4017:00-17:40
Keynote Lecture
Information, Intermediaries, and International Migration
Lisa Cameron (The University of Melbourne & GLO)

15:40-16:10

9:40-10:10

8:40-9:10

17:40-18:10
Do Social Movement Change Empathy Bias? Evidence from Black Lives Matter
Authors: Kaixin Liu (IESR, Jinan University), Ande Shen, Jiwei Zhou, Junda Zhang

16:10-16:40

10:10-10:40

9:10-9:40

18:10-18:40
Does a Tragic Event Affect Different Aspects of Attitudes toward Immigration?
Authors: Odelia Heizler (Tel-Aviv-Yaffo Academic College & GLO), Osnat Israeli

16:40-17:10

10:40-11:10

9:40-10:10

18:40-19:10
Culture Breakers and Policy Implementation——How did China Promote Later Marriage in the 1970s?
Author: Yi Chen (ShanghaiTech University & GLO)

17:10-17:40

11:10-11:40

10:10-10:40

19:10-19:40
Do Good Deeds Really Earn Chits? Evidence from Targeted Poverty Alleviation Information Disclosure and Stock Price Crash Risk
Authors: Yu Zhang (Sun Yat-sen University), Zixun Zhou

NOTE: Each presentation consists of 20-25 minute presentation time and 5 -10 minute Q&A.

August 30 (Tuesday)

19:00-22:00 Beijing Time/ 13:00-16:00 German Time/ 12:00-15:00 London Time

Chair: Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO)

Junsen Zhang
Beijing TimeGerman TimeLondon Time
19:00-19:4013:00-13:4012:00-12:40
Keynote Lecture
An Economic Analysis of Fertility in China: Challenges and Policy Recommendations
Junsen Zhang (Zhejiang University & GLO)

19:40-20:10

13:40-14:10

12:40-13:10
Gender Imbalance, Assortative Matching and Household Income Inequality in China
Authors: Chen Huang (University of Southampton), Serhiy Stepanchuk
20:10-20:4014:10-14:4013:10-13:40
Heterogeneous Peer Effects for the Disadvantaged Students
Author: Yi Zhang (IESR, Jinan University)

20:40-21:10

14:40-15:10

13:40-14:10
Migrant Children’s Take-up of Social Health Insurance: Experimental Evidence from China
Authors: Menghan Shen (Sun Yatsen University), Zhiwei Tang, Xiaoyang Ye

21:10-21:40

15:10-15:40

14:10-14:40
A Tale of An Aging Society with Digital Revolution Authors
Authors: Mingxing Huang (Peking University), Xun Li

NOTE: Each presentation consists of 20-25 minute presentation time and 5-10 minute Q&A.

Organizers

  • Institute       for       Economic       and       Social        Research,        Jinan       University, https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Home/main.htm
  • Global Labor Organization, https://glabor.org/

Organizing Committee

Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO
Shuaizhang Feng, Jinan University & GLO
Sen Xue, Jinan University & GLO

Contact

For inquiries regarding the conference, please contact Sen Xue at sen.xue@jnu.edu.cn. General inquiries regarding the submissions should be directed to iesrjnu@gmail.com.

Lisa Cameron is the James Riady Chair of Asian Economics and Business and a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne. She is an empirical micro-economist whose research incorporates the techniques of experimental and behavioural economics so as to better understand human decision-making. Much of her research focuses on policy evaluation – understanding the impacts and behavioural implications of public policy, with a focus on social and economic issues. She is particularly interested in the welfare of disadvantaged and marginalised groups and the socio-economic determinants of health. Much of her research to date has focused on developing countries, particularly Indonesia and China and she has extensive experience collaborating with agencies such as the World Bank and AusAID (DFAT). Lisa received her PhD from Princeton University in 1996. She was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences in 2013.

Junsen Zhang is currently a Distinguished University Professor in the School of Economics, Zhejiang University. Prof. Zhang is also Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research (both theoretical and empirical) has focused on the economics of family behavior, including fertility, marriage, education, intergenerational transfers, marital transfers, gender bias, and old-age support. He also works on family-related macro issues, such as ageing, social security, and economic growth. Using many data sets from different countries (regions), either micro or macro, he has studied economic issues in Canada, the US, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, as well as Mainland China. Most of his recent research has been on the economics of the family using Chinese data. He has published over 100 papers in major refereed international journals. Many of them were published in leading economics journals or in leading field journals. According to a ranking by RePEc dated May 2018, Junsen Zhang ranks as the number one economist in the field of the Chinese economy. He was Editor of the Journal of Population Economics from 2001 to 2020 and has been Co-Editor of Journal of Human Resources since February 2019. He was the President of the Hong Kong Economic Association from 2007 to 2011. In 2013, he was elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society.

Ends;

Regulating Abortions in the United States. Report & Video of a Research Meeting of the Journal of Population Economics.

Abortion issues are again on the agenda in may societies around the globe. Academic research can inform the public debate. The Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) is a scientific outlet for studying important issues. It has published a larger number of relevant papers recently on this topic. Two new papers studying abortion regulations in the United States were presented on June 1, 2022 open to the public. JOPE Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) has opened the event, and Managing Editor Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida) had chaired the session.

JOPE Research Workshop on Abortion Issues II (see Abortion Issues I)
Wednesday June 1; 4-5 pm CEST (Berlin time) Chair: Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida)

Event Video

Free access to the papers see below.

  • Caitlin Knowles Myers (Middlebury College, USA)
    Confidential and legal access to abortion and contraception in the United States, 1960-2020

  • Grace Arnold (Portland State University, USA)
    The Impact of Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers Laws on Abortions and Births

Recently published JOPE abortion research:

JUST PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 3, July 2022: Journal of Population Economics: 15 articles
https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-3

Ends;

Consequences of Abortion Bans in India & Romania. Report & Video: Research event of the Journal of Population Economics.

Abortion issues are again on the agenda in may societies around the globe. Academic research can inform the public debate. The Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) is a scientific outlet for studying important issues. It has published a larger number of relevant papers recently. Two new papers on the consequences of abortion bans were presented on May 31, 2022 open to the public. JOPE Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO, UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) has opened the event, and Managing Editor Michaella Vanore (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) chaired the session.

JOPE Research Workshop on Abortion Issues I (see Abortion Issues II)

Tuesday May 31; 4-5 pm CEST (Berlin time) Chair: Michaella Vanore (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University)

Event Video 

  • Anisha Sharma (Ashoka University, India)
    Unwanted daughters: the unintended consequences of a ban on sex-selective abortions on the educational attainment of women
  • Federico H. Gutierrez (Bates White, previously Vanderbilt University, USA)
    The inter-generational fertility effect of an abortion ban

Free access to the papers see below.

Recently published JOPE abortion research:

JUST PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 3, July 2022: Journal of Population Economics: 15 articles
https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-3

Ends;

VIDEO & REPORT: Spring Event of the Journal of Population Economics, 25 April 2022.

Meet the author! The Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) Spring Event took place online on 25 April 2022, 4-6 pm CEST (Maastricht, Dutch time). Authors presented the highlights of their articles published in issues 35:1 and 35:2 of 2022. Sessions were chaired by 4 journal editors. Various members of the JOPE Board present. Intensive discussions with a large audience. High number of participants registered.

Missed the event? Want to study details? Here is the Video of the event. Explore also the links to the papers provided below in the program outline!

Program

Presenting authors in bold! Scheduled times all CEST/Maastricht-Netherlands

16:00-18:00/4-6 pm: Welcome: Klaus F. Zimmermann

16:00-16:30/4:00-4.30 pm — Elderly & YouthChair: Kompal Sinha

Havari: Unemployed Youth in Latvia

16:30-17.00/4:30-5.00 pm — Children Chair: Terra McKinnish

Strom: Children & Labor Outcome

17:00-17.30/5:00-5.30 pm — Covid-19Chair: Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Skoda: Elections & Covid-19

17:30-18.00/5:30-6.00 pm — US ImmigrantsChair: Michaella Vanore

Regets: Immigrant Earnings I
Regets: Immigrant Earnings II

***

Explore the full set of JOPE papers (23 papers): January 2022, issue 1 & April 2022, issue 2

Annual Journal of Population Economics Report 2021: many submissions, fast first decisions, high impact. JOPE EiC Report 2021.

JUST PUBLISHED
Vol. 35, Issue 3, July 2022: Journal of Population Economics: 15 articles
https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/35-3

Ends;

Inequality and Public Policy in Asia. CALL FOR PAPERS FOR A SPECIAL ISSUE OF JURNAL EKONOMI MALAYSIA. Submission deadline June 30, 2022.

The Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia will publish a special issue on “Inequality and Public Policy in Asia” in collaboration with GLO Southeast Asia under the direction of its GLO Cluster Lead M Niaz Asadullah. Submission deadline is June 30, 2022.

JURNAL EKONOMI MALAYSIA
CALL FOR PAPERS FOR A SPECIAL ISSUE ON: Inequality and Public Policy in Asia

Guest Editor: Professor M Niaz Asadullah
(Universiti Malaya & Global Labor Organization (GLO) Southeast Asia)

Niaz Asadullah

Overview of the Special Issue: While income inequality globally has declined significantly in many socio-economic indicators in the past decades, within country inequality is once again on the rise. Rapid economic growth and market reforms have helped reduce extreme poverty within Asian region, but this also coincided with a worsening distribution of earnings, wages and wealth. These contrasting patterns have raised questions about the progressivity of public policy and its efficacy in achieving growth with equity. To what extent have fiscal policies succeeded in reducing inequality in Asia? How important was the role of social expenditures on health and education? And what about the design of social safety nets, labor market reforms, and financial sector inclusion?

To answer some of the above questions, the editorial board of Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia is seeking scholarly manuscripts for a special issue on inequality and public policy, which is also the first in collaboration with Global Labor Organization (GLO). The unique partnership with GLO will ensure worldwide circulation of the accepted papers.

The SI focus is on contemporary issues involving all aspects of inequality (social and economic). Social science research including a range of disciplinary perspectives and quantitative methods is welcome. Manuscripts in the following issues, but not limited to, are welcome:

  • Within and cross-country analysis of trends in and drivers of inequality in Asia
  • Policy drivers of rising or declining inequality in Asia
  • Political economy analysis of fiscal and tax policy
  • Inequality of pre-market opportunities (e.g. health, education)
  • Financial shock, economic crisis and redistributive policy measures


More Information about the Journal

Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia is an internationally refereed SCOPUS-indexed journal that publishes original articles, research notes, book reviews on economics three times a year published by Penerbit UKM, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. It is also one of the oldest SCOPUS-indexed economics journals published from Southeast Asia.

Submission Information

Word limit: 6,000-8,000
Total number of papers to be Accepted Paper: 8-10
Registration and Submission: https://www.ukm.my/jem/
Select article type “Special issue” in the submission process.
Author guidelines: https://www.ukm.my/jem/author-guidelines/
Enquiries on Submission: jem@ukm.edu.my
Informal enquiries on proposed topics and potential fit with special Issue objective: m.niaz@um.edu.my

Key Deadlines

Opening Submission Date: 1 May 2022
Closing Submission Date: 30 June 2022
Possible publication date: October 2022

Ends;

Economic preferences across generations and family clusters: A large-scale experiment in a developing country. Now forthcoming in the Journal of Political Economy. By Shyamal Chowdhury, Matthias Sutter & Klaus F. Zimmermann.

Using data from large-scale experiments with entire families for Bangladesh, the research finds that both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences. Results differ from evidence for rich countries.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 592, 2020 now forthcoming as

Economic preferences across generations and family clusters: A large-scale experiment in a developing country
by
Chowdhury, Shyamal & Sutter, Matthias & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

in: Journal of Political Economy

Free Pre-publication version

GLO Fellows Shyamal Chowdhury and Matthias Sutter & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann

Author Abstract: Our large-scale experiment with 542 families from rural Bangladesh finds substantial intergenerational persistence of economic preferences. Both mothers’ and fathers’ risk, time and social preferences are significantly (and largely to the same degree) positively correlated with their children’s economic preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and socio-economic background. We discuss possible transmission channels and are the first to classify all families into one of two clusters, with either relatively patient, risk-tolerant and pro-social members or relatively impatient, risk averse and spiteful members. Classifications correlate with socio-economic background variables. We find that our results differ from evidence for rich countries.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is favicon_glabor.png

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

VIDEO of the online event on 21 March 2022: Oded Galor on his new book: “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. Book released on March 22 in the USA, on April 7 in the UK and on April 13 in Germany.

Oded Galor (Brown University) spoke on March 21, 2022 (4.00 pm to 5.30 pm CET Berlin time) in a public world-wide online event on

The Journey of Humanity:
The Origins of Wealth and Inequality

VIDEO OF THE EVENT

The event was jointly organized by Global Labor Organization (GLO), the Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) and POP @ UNU-MERIT and chaired by Klaus F. Zimmermann (President of GLO, Editor-in-Chief of JOPE, and Co-Director of POP). About 200 people had registered to attend.

What Twitter says!  

The Journey of Humanity by Oded Galor

Oded Galor spoke about his new book just published with Penguin Random House in thirty languages worldwide. It is released on March 22 in the USA and on April 7 in the UK and on April 13 in Germany.

Further details on the book (see also below) and how it can be purchased: USA-LINK —– UK-LINK …… Germany-LINK

He is Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University and the founding thinker behind Unified Growth Theory, which seeks to uncover the fundamental causes of development, prosperity and inequality over the entire span of human history. He is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth and an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.

About the book

In a captivating journey from the dawn of human existence to the present, world-renowned economist and thinker Oded Galor offers an intriguing solution to two of humanity’s great mysteries.

Why are humans the only species to have escaped – only very recently – the subsistence trap, allowing us to enjoy a standard of living that vastly exceeds all others? And why have we progressed so unequally around the world, resulting in the great disparities between nations that exist today? Immense in scope and packed with astounding connections, Galor’s gripping narrative explains how technology, population size, and adaptation led to a stunning “phase change” in the human story a mere two hundred years ago. But by tracing that same journey back in time and peeling away the layers of influence – colonialism, political institutions, societal structure, culture – he arrives also at an explanation of inequality’s ultimate causes: those ancestral populations that enjoyed fruitful geographical characteristics and rich diversity were set on the path to prosperity, while those that lacked it were disadvantaged in ways still echoed today.

As we face ecological crisis across the globe, The Journey of Humanity is a book of urgent truths and enduring relevance, with lessons that are both hopeful and profound: gender equality, investment in education, and balancing diversity with social cohesion are the keys not only to our species’ thriving, but to its survival.

From the event

From the opening remarks of Klaus F. Zimmermann

Oded is the Herbert Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University and one of the profoundest economic thinkers of the world. He has published his research in the best academic outlets of the profession. His contributions focus for long around the fundamental causes of development, prosperity and inequality over the entire span of human history. As the driving force behind what he calls “Unified Growth Theory” and the role of genetic diversity for development he seeks to uncover the fundamental causes of the path of human wellbeing across time and space.

Oded Galor was awarded Doctorates Honoris Causa from UCLouvain and from Poznań University of Economics & Business. He is an elected Foreign Member of Academia Europaea and an Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society. He is affiliated with many distinguished academic networks like NBER, CEPR, GLO, IZA, among others. Furthermore, he is the Editor in Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth, Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and Co-Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics. He has served the profession in many unique ways.

His new book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality” comes at the time of a dramatic setback in economic history, as for a few weeks now the aggressive war against the Ukraine reveals. Europe experiences some of the darkest days on the continent since WWII with unpredictable ending.

The book could not foresee this development. But it nevertheless feeds the hope for a long-term rise in humanity, of increased wealth, understanding and collaboration.

  • As Oded Galor writes at the beginning of his global review of history (p. 9): “…. the outlook derived from this exploration can be described as fundamentally hopeful, in terms of the overarching trajectory of societies across the globe. …. education, tolerance and greater gender equality hold the keys to our species’ flourishing in the decades and centuries to come. ”
  • And after discussing major global catastrophes over the last century, he writes towards the end (pp. 240-241): “But history shows that, shattering and dreadful as they are, these events have had limited long-term impact on the grand arc of human development. The relentless march of humanity has so far been unstoppable.”

The book helps us to see the mechanisms and common institutions we need to invest and struggle for to foster human development and to overpower disaster.

Ends;

The Feminisation U, cultural norms, and the plough. A new paper published ONLINE FIRST OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics by Luca J. Uberti and Elodie Douarin.

The new paper finds that an U-shaped relationship between female labour force participation and economic development is only significant in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology.

Luca J. Uberti & Elodie Douarin

The Feminisation U, cultural norms, and the plough

Journal of Population Economics (2022). Open Access
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-022-00890-5

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 002-Cover-Page-JPopEa.jpg

Author Abstract: The Feminisation U describes the tendency of female labour force participation (FLFP) to first decline and then rise in the process of economic development. While the Feminisation U is often presented as a ‘stylised fact’ of development, empirical support for it is mixed. Here, we show that cultural norms inherited from ancestral plough use exert a moderating influence on the shape of the Feminisation U. Specifically, we find a significantly U-shaped path of FLFP only in countries whose ancestors employed a plough-based agricultural technology. The shape of the U-curve becomes progressively more muted as the share of a country’s ancestors that practiced plough agriculture decreases. In countries with little or no legacy of historical plough use, the time path of FLFP is effectively flat. This pattern of results is robust to correcting for dynamic panel bias, instrumenting for per-capita income, and controlling for other potential effect modifiers. Our findings are compatible with a nuanced reading of the main theoretical models proposed in the literature to explain the Feminisation U.

Fig. 1

Journal of Population Economics

  • 33 more ONLINE FIRST articles: LINK
  • 13 new articles in issue 2/April 2022: LINK

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Understanding the setup and speed of global COVID-19 vaccination campaigns: VoxEU column published.

Because vaccinations are crucial to containing the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to identify the key factors behind successful immunisation campaigns. This column shows that pandemic pressures, economic strength, educational advancement, and political regimes can affect vaccination uptake, given vaccine availability. While democratic regimes initially show faster vaccination uptake, this advantage fades out as countries try to get more people vaccinated. Countries with strong economies and education systems are likely to have faster uptake of vaccination campaigns.

Read the column:

Vu M. Ngo, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Phuc V. Nguyen, Toan Luu Duc Huynh and Huan H. Nguyen (2021).
Understanding the setup and speed of global COVID-19 vaccination campaigns

VoxEU on 25 January 2022.

Featured image: Markus-Spiske-DnBtFBnqlRc-unsplash

Ends;

Does Expanding Access to Cannabis Affect Traffic Crashes? County-Level Evidence from Recreational Marijuana Dispensary Sales in Colorado. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Christian Gunadi.

Was it important? A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that while marijuana-related hospital discharge rose, there is lack of evidence that traffic crash incidents were affected.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 964, 2021

Does Expanding Access to Cannabis Affect Traffic Crashes? County-Level Evidence from Recreational Marijuana Dispensary Sales in Colorado Download PDF
by Gunadi, Christian

GLO Fellow Christian Gunadi

Author Abstract: This article examines the effect of recreational cannabis dispensary sales on traffic crashes by employing difference-in-differences model that exploits the variation in the timing of recreational marijuana dispensary entry across counties within Colorado. Using marijuana-related hospital discharge as a proxy for marijuana use, the results indicate a sizable rise in marijuana-related hospital discharges after the entry of retail cannabis stores. However, there is a lack of evidence that traffic crash incidents are affected by the entry. The preferred estimate suggests that, at 90% confidence level, a large increase in traffic crashes by more than 5% can be ruled out.

Featured Image: crystalweed-on-unsplash

indispensable-unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

37th EBES “Berlin” Conference in collaboration with FOM University and GLO, October 6-8, 2021. Impressions of Day TWO with videos of the sessions.

The 37th EBES Conference takes place online on October 6-8 2021. GLO is a co-organizing partner, and FOM University of Applied Sciences is the local host supporting the event from Berlin. EBES, the Eurasia Business and Economics Society, and FOM University of Applied Sciences are strategic partners and institutional supporters of GLO.

Day TWO (October 7) saw next to 9 parallel research paper sessions a Special FOM-GLO Session and the GLO Handbook Session Migration I. The highlight plenary Speech of the Day was delivered by Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge and GLO) on Religion and Mental Health chaired by Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, CERGE-EI & GLO), who is also the GLO Research Cluster Lead “Religion”. The EBES 37 Plenary Speech was this time joint with the monthly GLO Virtual Research Seminar normally chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha.

CONFERENCE PROGRAM WITH PARTICIPATION DETAILS: LINK

https://ebesweb.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/37th-EBES-Conference-Program_2021.pdf

General inquiries: ebes@ebesweb.org

Some pictures from the event and an overview of the GLO-related contributions on the day can be found below:

GLO supported program parts on October 7:

TIME STRUCTURE (All CET Berlin time)

Thursday, October 7:

 9.00-11.00. FOM-GLO Session
Chair: Alexander Spermann (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Freiburg University and GLO)

VIDEO of the session

  • Monika Wohlmann (FOM University of Applied Science): The European Central Bank’s Strategy Review and the Management of Inflation Expectations
  • Sascha Frohwerk (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Berlin, Hasso-Plattner-Institute, Potsdam and GLO): Retail Location Choice Models. A Comparison of Gravitation and Logit Model
  • Andreas Oberheitmann  (Tsinghua University, FOM and GLO): Development of a Low Carbon Economy in Wuxi City. An Example of Climate Change Mitigation in China on the Local Level.
  • Michael Drewes (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Mannheim) and  Luca Rebeggiani (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Bonn): Private vs. Public Financing of Sport Stadia in Germany – An Empirical Analysis.
  • Sascha Frohwerk (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Berlin, Hasso-Plattner-Institute, Potsdam and GLO), Carsten Kruppe and Holger Wassermann: Evolution or Revolution: The Entry of New Company Successors in Germany
  • Kai Klotz and Alexander Spermann (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Freiburg  University and GLO): Did the Refugee Crisis Cause the Rise of Right-wing Parties? Empirical Evidence from East Germany.

14.00-15.00. Plenary Speech joint with the monthly GLO Seminar
Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge and GLO):
Religion and Mental Health
Chair: Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, CERGE-EI & GLO)

Note: The session relates to the Springer Nature Handbook project “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” supported by the GLO network.

VIDEO of the session.

Olga Popova, Session Chair & GLO Research Cluster Lead “Religion”

Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge and GLO)

15.15 – 17.15. GLO Session Migration I
Chair: Cynthia Bansak (St. Lawrence University & GLO)

Note: The session relates to the Springer Nature Handbook project “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” supported by the GLO network.

VIDEO of the session.

  • Chunbei Wang (University of Oklahoma & GLO) & Magnus Lofstrom (Public Policy Institute of California & GLO): Immigrant Entrepreneurs
  • Sonia Plaza (World Bank & GLO): Measuring Migration
  • Davit Adunts (CERGE-EI) & Mariola Pytlikova (CERGE-EI & GLO): Migration Determinants
  • Massimiliano Tani (University of New South Wales & GLO) & Matloob Piracha (University of Kent & GLO): Migration and Education
  • Cinzia Rienzo ( University of Brighton & GLO): Performance of Economic Migrants
  • Cynthia A. Bansak (St. Lawrence University & GLO), Nicole Simpson (Colgate University & GLO) and Madeline Zavodny (University of North Florida & GLO): Immigrants and Their Effects on Labor Market Outcomes of Natives

Ends;

The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower & Alex Bryson.

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that fear of unemployment predicts subsequent changes in unemployment.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 922, 2021

The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment Download PDF
by Blanchflower, David G. & Bryson, Alex

GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower

Background paper to the keynote address of Danny Blanchflower to the EBES 37 & GLO Berlin conference. More information: LINK.

Danny Blanchflower

Author Abstract: Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries – Austria; Belgium; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Netherlands; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Turkey and the UK – over 439 months between January 1985 and July 2021 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals’ fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and their own household financial situation. Fear of unemployment predicts subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. Individuals’ perceptions of the economic situation in the country and their own household finances also predict unemployment 12 months later. Business sentiment (industry fear of unemployment) is also predictive of unemployment 12 months later. The findings underscore the importance of the “economics of walking about”. The implication is that these social survey data are informative in predicting economic downturns and should be used more extensively in forecasting. We also generate a 29 country-level annual panel on life satisfaction from 1985-2020 from the World Database of Happiness and show that the consumer level fear of unemployment variable lowers wellbeing over and above the negative impact of the unemployment rate itself. Qualitative survey metrics were able to predict the Great Recession and the economic slowdown in Europe just prior to the COVID pandemic.

Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

GLO Virtual Seminar on July 8, 2021: Report & Video of the Event with Olga Popova on “Does weather sharpen income inequality in Russia?”

The GLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)

The last seminar was given on July 8, 2021, London/UK at 1-2 pm, by Olga Popova, Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) & GLO on Does weather sharpen income inequality in Russia? See below a report, the presentation slides and the full video of the seminar.

Report

Does weather sharpen income inequality in Russia?

GLO Virtual Seminar on July 8, 2021

Olga Popova, Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) & GLO

Video of the Seminar. Presentation slides. ***Published***

ABSTRACT
Using subnational panel data, this paper analyzes how hot and cold extreme temperatures and precipitation affect economic activity and income distribution in Russia. We account for the intensity of exposure to extreme temperatures by analyzing the impacts of both single and consecutive days with extreme temperature, i.e., heat waves and cold spells, and examine several labor market channels behind those effects. We find that consecutive extremely hot days decrease regional GDP per capita but do not affect income inequality. Poor regions are affected by extreme temperatures relatively more than rich regions. These effects occur because of reallocation of labor from employment to unemployment, an increase in prices in poor regions, and to some extent because of changes in the industrial employment structure, while relative wages are not affected. Extremely cold days, both single and consecutive, as well as extreme precipitation have a limited impact on economic activity and income distribution.

Research Questions and Contribution

  • Examine the distributional impacts of extreme temperature and precipitation shocks, using the regional panel data from Russia
  • Account for the intensity of extreme temperatures exposure by simultaneously
    examining the impacts of both single and consecutive days with extreme
    temperature
  • Identify and test the labor market channels behind the inequality‐temperature
    relationship
  • Study if the impacts are heterogeneous
    • Poor vs. rich regions
    • Hot vs. cold regions

Correlation between days above 25°C and ln(GDP) in Russia

Ends;

The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Nabaneeta Biswas, Christopher Cornwell and GLO Fellow Laura V. Zimmermann.

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines an Indian conditional cash transfer program to find an improved sex ratio at birth and better post-birth outcomes like immunization and education.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 888, 2021

The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl Download PDF
by
Biswas, Nabaneeta & Cornwell, Christopher & Zimmermann, Laura V.

GLO Fellow Laura V. Zimmermann

Laura V. Zimmermann, University of Georgia

Author Abstract: Worldwide, 1.6 million girls are “missing” at birth every year. One policy tool to improve the sex ratio is a conditional cash transfer that pays parents to invest in daughters, but existing evidence on their effectiveness is sparse. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we evaluate the Dhanlakshmi scheme, an Indian CCT program that strongly encouraged girl births without restricting fertility. Dhanlakshmi improved the sex ratio at birth, with only a small fertility increase. The girl-birth effect was concentrated among the first two parities and partially persisted after the program was discontinued. Post-birth outcomes like immunization and education also improved.

Laura V. Zimmermann has a joint appointment as Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and in the Department of International Affairs at the University of Georgia. She recently presented the research summarized in GLO Discussion Paper No. 888 at the Fourth IESR-GLO Conference. Video of presentation: LINK

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Ends;

Update: Impact Factor now 2.8 (2020) from 1.8 (2019)! Journal of Population Economics Report 2020: Over 40% rise in submissions, faster editorial decisions.

Newly released:

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019) & 1.253 (2018)
SSCI 5-Year Impact Factor 3.318 (2020) from 2.353 (2019) & 2.072 (2018)
SSCI Journal Citation Indicator (JCI) = 1.20 (2020).JoPE has 20% more citation impact than the average in its category.
Rank by JCI in 2020: 98/549, Q1 Economics; 10/49, Q1 in Demography
CiteScore (Scopus): 3.9 (2020)
SJR (Scimago Journal Rank): 1.89 (2020)
IDEAS/RePEc ranking (July 2021) was 77/2,698 journals (based on the Simple Impact Factor 17.327, for Journals and all years)

SSCI IMPACT FACTOR 2.813 (2020) from 1.840 (2019)

Report of the Editor-in-Chief 2020
PDF of Report revised, July 9, 2021

The Journal of Population of Economics is an international quarterly that publishes original theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics, household economics, and human resources. This report contains information about the Journal and its editorial process in the past year and some earlier years.

Figure 1: Number of Submissions

The number of submissions has substantially increased over recent years (Figure 1). Between 2011 and 2013, the Journal received about 400 submissions per year; by 2016 the number of submissions neared 500, and in 2020, 871 manuscripts were received. This marks an annual increase of submissions of 41%. Over the decade 2010-2020, the manuscript inflow rose from 337 to a level 2.6 times higher. The additional workload was managed through an efficient desk rejection policy for initial screening.

Figure 2: Origin of Submissions

In line with past years, the largest single share of submissions made in 2020 were from corresponding authors based in Europe (Figure 2). Nearly 40% of all submissions originated from Europe, and over one-third (34%) of submissions came from authors based in Asia and the Middle East. Under one-fifth (17%) of submissions came from authors based in North America. The remaining submissions came from contributors from Africa (6%), Oceania (Australia and New Zealand; 4%), and South and Central America (4%).

Figure 3: Visits by World Region 2019

Figure 3 contains the internet visits to the Journal on the Springer website from the world regions. With over a third of visits coming from North America and 29% from Europe, followed by the Asia-pacific region (22%), the Journal is globally accessed and read.


Figure 4: Days to First Decision

Figure 4 shows that the average number of days between submission and first decision has generally declined over time. Despite a slight uptick in the turnaround time for first decisions between 2015 and 2016, which may be partially attributed to the increased volume of submissions, there was a substantial reduction in turnaround time in following years. In 2020, the average time for first decisions was 24 days. The Journal is committed to keep the time between submission and decisions low, including eventual publication. Since 2013 the Journal has executed a desk rejection policy to provide authors with an early signal for better targeting of their work. The large number of submissions combined with an annual quota of 40 manuscripts keeps the acceptance rates of the Journal  very low.

Table 1 shows three acceptance rate measures: 1) the number of manuscripts accepted in a given year as a share of all final decisions made in that year; 2) the number of published articles in a given year as a share of all submissions in that year; and; 3) the number of articles published in a given year divided by the number of the previous year’s submissions.

The number of accepted papers (submitted at any point in time) in a given year as a share of all decisions made in that year has shifted over time. The acceptance rate has declined from 7% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2019, slightly increasing in 2020 to 5.4%. If acceptance rate is measured as the number of published manuscripts as a share of total submissions received in that year, the acceptance rate was slightly higher, at 4.6% in 2020 (at 40 manuscripts from among 871 submissions), falling from 7.1% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019. Measuring the acceptance rate as the number of publications as a share of the number of submissions received in the previous year (2019) would yield a 2020 rate of 6.5%, which is lower than the previous years (7.6% in 2018 and 7.1% in 2019).

Table 1: Acceptance Rates

Index                   Year201820192020
No. accepted /      Total No. decisions7.0%4.9%5.4%
No. articles publ. /    No. submissions7.1%6.5%4.6%
No. articles publ. /   No. subm. prev. year7.6%7.1%6.5%

Table 2 reports  the status of papers submitted in the given year for years 2018 – 2020. The Journal’s Impact Factor has increased substantially over time (Figure 5). In 2020 Impact Factor was 2.813, and the 5-year Impact Factor was 3.318. The Journal ranked 104/377 in economics and 10/29 in demography in 2020. As of July 2021, the Journal’s IDEAS/RePEc ranking was 77/2,698 (based on the Simple Impact Factor 17.327, for Journals and all years).

Table 2: Status of Papers Submitted in Particular Year

                    Outcome/Year201820192020
Accept 39 35 47
Revise 68 125 81
Reject 522 551 737

The Journal is ranked in: Social Science Citation Index, Journal Citation Reports/Social Sciences, SCOPUS, EconLit, Google Scholar, EBSCO Discovery Service, ProQuest, CAB International, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, Academic OneFile, Academic Search, Bibliography of Asian Studies, CAB Abstracts, CSA Environmental Sciences, Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, ECONIS, ERIH PLUS, Gale, Global Health, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), JSTOR, OCLC, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Review of Population Reviews, SCImago, and Summon by ProQuest.

International Research on the Economics of Population, Household, and Human Resources

Klaus F. Zimmermann,
Editor-in-Chief
Journal of Population Economics

Ends;

Last day & flashlights of previous days: Fourth IESR-GLO Conference on ‘Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs’ online on June 24-26, 2021. With keynote of Timothy Smeeding. Reminder.

The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing the Fourth IESR-GLO Virtual Conference. The conference this year is held from June 24 (Thursday) to June 26 (Saturday), 2021 through Zoom. The theme is Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs. Robert Moffitt and Timothy Smeeding are the keynote speakers. (Feng of IESR right & Zimmermann of GLO left)

CONFERENCE PROGRAM PDF & BELOW

Day 1; June 24:

Speakers on June 24 from the left:
Michael Christl, Jinyuan Yang, Sen Xue
Shuaizhang Feng, Robert Moffitt, Klaus F. Zimmermann
Feng Chen, Laura V. Zimmermann, Xi Chen

Day 2; June 25:

Program

8.00-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.05 am New York / 1:00-4:05 pm London
JUNE 24 (Thursday). Chair: Sen Xue (IESR, Jinan University & GLO)

8.00-8.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.05 am New York / 1:00-1:05 pm London
Opening Remarks by Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO) & Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)

8.05-9.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:05-9.05 am New York / 1:05-2:05 pm London
Keynote Lecture: Take-up in Social Assistance Programs: Theory and Evidence
Keynote Speaker: Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University)

9.05-9.35 pm Beijing Time / 9:05-9.35 am New York / 2:05-2:35 pm London
The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl
Nabaneeta Biswas (Marshall University), Christopher Cornwell (University of Georgia) & Laura V. Zimmermann (University of Georgia & GLO). Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 888. Download PDF.

9.35-10.05 pm Beijing Time / 9:35-10.05 am New York / 2:35-3:05 pm London
Grandfathers and Grandsons: Social Security Expansion and Child Health in China
Jinyuan Yang (Virginia Tech) & Xi Chen (Yale University & GLO)

10.05-10.35 pm Beijing Time / 10:05-10.35 am New York / 3:05-3:35 pm London
Trapped in inactivity? Social Assistance and Labour Supply in Austria
Michael Christl (European Commission & GLO) & Silvia De Poli (European Commission)

10.35-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 10:35-11.05 am New York / 3:35-4:05 pm London
Does Paid Family Leave Save Infant Lives? Evidence from California
Feng Chen (Tulane University & GLO)

8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London
June 25 (Friday). Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems
Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)

8.00-8.45 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.45 am New York / 1:00-1:45 pm London
Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo)
Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges

8.45-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 8:45-9.30 am New York / 1:45-2:30 pm London
South Korea. Inhoe Ku (Seoul National University)
Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform

9.30-10.15 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.15 am New York / 2:30-3:15 pm London
Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO)
Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate

10.15-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10.15-11.00 am New York / 3:15-4:00 pm London
Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO)
Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges

8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London
JUNE 26 (Saturday). Chair: Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO)

8.00-9.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-9.00 am New York / 1:00-2:00 pm London
Keynote Lecture: Poverty and Income Support Around the World: China, India and Asia in Comparative Perspective
Keynote Speaker: Timothy Smeeding (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

9.00-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 9:00-9.30 am New York / 2:00-2:30 pm London
The Health of Disability Insurance Enrollees: An International Comparison
Enrica Croda (Ca’Foscari University of Venice & GLO), Jonathan Skinner (Dartmouth College) & Laura Yasaitis (Dartmouth College)

9.30-10.00 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.00 am New York / 2:30-3:00 pm London
The Unintended Effect of Medicaid Aging Waivers on Informal Caregiving
Xianhua (Emma) Zai (Ohio State University & GLO)

10.00-10.30 pm Beijing Time / 10:00-10.30 am New York / 3:00-3:30 pm London
Housing Vouchers, Labor Supply and Household Formation: A Structural Approach
Ning Zhang (University of Pittsburgh)

10.30-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10:30-11.00 am New York / 3:30-4:00 pm London
The Structure and Incentives of a COVID related Emergency Wage Subsidy
Jules Linden (National University Ireland Galway & Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch), Cathal O’Donoghue (National University Ireland Galway), Denisa M. Sologon (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch)

Keynote speakers

Robert Moffitt on June 24; 8.00 pm Beijing Time

Robert A. Moffitt is the Krieger-Eisenhower Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins University and holds a joint appointment at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He obtained his Ph.D. degree from Brown University. His research interests are in the areas of labor economics and applied microeconometrics, with a special focus on the economics of issues relating to the low-income population in the U.S.. A large portion of his research has concerned the labor supply decisions of female heads of family and its response to the U.S. welfare system. He has published on the AFDC, Food Stamp, and Medicaid programs.

Moffitt has served as Chief Editor of the American Economic Review, Coeditor of the Review of Economics and Statistics, Chief Editor of the Journal of Human Resources, and as Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Panel to Evaluate Welfare Reform. He is currently editor of Tax Policy and the Economy.

Moffitt is also a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a recipient of a MERIT Award from the National Institutes of Health, a recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and Past President of the Population Association of America.

Timothy Smeeding on June 26; 8.00 pm Beijing Time


Timothy Smeeding is Lee Rainwater Distinguished Professor of Public Affairs and Economics of the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He was director of the Institute for Research on Poverty from 2008–2014 and was the founding director of the Luxembourg Income Study from 1983-2006. He was named the John Kenneth Galbraith Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science in 2017.

Professor Smeeding’s recent work has been on social and economic mobility across generations, inequality of income, consumption and wealth, and poverty in national and cross-national contexts.

His recent publications include: SNAP Matters: How Food Stamps Affect Health and Well Being (Stanford University Press, 2015); Monitoring Social Mobility in the 21st Century (Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2015); From Parents to Children: The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage (Russell Sage Foundation, 2012); Persistence, Privilege and Parenting: The Comparative Study of Intergenerational Mobility (Russell Sage Foundation, 2011); The Handbook of Economic Inequality (Oxford University Press, 2009); Poor Kids in a Rich Country: America’s Children in Comparative Perspective (Russell Sage Foundation, 2003); and The American Welfare State: Laggard or Leader?, (Oxford University Press, 2010).

Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems 

June 25th: 8:pm-11pm Beijing Time/ 8:00am-11am New York / 1:00pm-4:00pm London
Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)

  • 8:00-8:45 pm: Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo)
    Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges
  • 8:45-9:30 pm: Korea. Inhoe Ku (Seoul National University)
    Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform
  • 9:30-10:15 pm: Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO)
    Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate
  • 10:15-11:00 pm: Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO)
    Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges

Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo)
Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo, and the President of the Japan Institute of Public Finance. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from Queen’s University at Kingston, Canada. His research interests include redistribution, taxation and fiscal federalism.

Inhoe Ku (Seoul National University)
Professor at the Department of Social Welfare, Seoul National University. He is currently working as the President of the Korean Academy of Social Welfare. His research has been focusing on poverty, inequality and social policy. 

Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO)
Has started his research on social assistance more than thirty years ago. After finishing his dissertation and habilitation at the University of Freiburg, he held leading positions at international research institutes (ZEW, IZA) and is currently Professor of Economics at FOM Cologne and University of Freiburg. He has been a regular contributor to the media for decades.

Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO)
Professor Emeritus, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. He has published several papers on social assistance in Sweden. Since the 1990s he has also studied various aspects on income among Chinese households.  

From the left: Masayoshi Hayashi, Inhoe Ku, Alexander Spermann, and Björn Gustafsson

  • Organizers

Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University
Global Labor Organization

  • Organizing Committee

Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO
Shuaizhang Feng, Jinan University
Sen Xue, Jinan University

  • Contact

For inquiries regarding the conference, please contact Sen Xue at sen.xue@jnu.edu.cn. General inquiries should be directed to iesrjnu@gmail.com.

IESR Conference Website

Ends;

Report: “Human Resources Challenges” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” took place on May 17, 2021 hosted by the Central European University (CEU).

Hosted by the Central European University (CEU) and its CEU School of Public Policy (Vienna/Austria), the AE Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” of the Academia Europaea (AE), the Academy of Europe, organized a virtual Workshop on “Human Resources Challenges” on May 17, 2021, 11 am to 3 pm, CET – Vienna time. The event was supported by the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

Central European University (CEU), Vienna

May 17, 2021: “Human Resources Challenges” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”, all CET/Vienna.
See also: Academia Europaea Website; CEU Website. The morning session presented work from the forthcoming Handbook of “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” published by Springer Nature reviewing and evaluating literature to human resources and technology as well as migation and aging. The afternoon session dealt with Covid-19 issues in the context of Mass Antigen Testing as well as female self-employment; presentations were based on GLO Discussion Papers referenced below forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. Both sessions were recorded and the videos are freely accessible below.

PROGRAM

Moderator of the event: Marton Leiszen (Central European University, Skills and Applied Learning Coordinator at the School of Public Policy)

Marton Leiszen


11.00 – 11.10 am Welcome
Marton Leiszen (CEU), Martin Kahanec (MAE & CEU), Klaus F. Zimmermann (MAE, UNU-MERIT & GLO)

11.10 – 12.30 am SESSION I: Review of Knowledge
Both presentations reviewed relevant literature from the Handbook of “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”, which was introduced by AE Section Chair and Editor Klaus F. Zimmermann.

Video of Session I.

11.10 – 11.50 am
Marco Vivarelli (MAE & Università Cattolica Milano)
Technology, Employment and Skills
Work in progress, contribution to the Section Migration in the Handbook of “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”. The presentation outlined the 20 review articles of the section on “Technological Changes and the Labor Market” in the Handbook. A selection of the papers is presented in a forthcoming Online Workshop on “Technological Change, Employment & Skills” on June 7, 2021.

Marco Vivarelli

11.50 – 12.30 am
Pieter Bevelander (MAE & Malmö University) with Haodong Qi (Malmö University)
Migration and Aging
Work in progress, contribution to the Section Migration in the Handbook of “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics”.

Pieter Bevelander
Haodong Qi

12.30 – 13.00 pm Lunch Break

13.00 – 15.00 pm SESSION II: Covid-19 Research
Both presentations were based on fresh and elaborated research papers, which are forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. The Journal has established a tradition of publishing some highly referenced research papers on Covid-19.

Video of Session II.

13.00 – 14.00 pm
Martin Kahanec (MAE & CEU) with Lukas Laffers and Bernhard Schmidpeter
The Impact of Mass Antigen Testing for COVID-19 on the Prevalence of the Disease
GLO Discussion Paper No. 775, 2021, Journal of Population Economics.

Martin Kahanec

14.00 – 15.00 pm
Alexander Kritikos (DIW Berlin & Potsdam University) with Daniel Graeber & Johannes Seebauer
COVID-19: A Crisis of the Female Self-employed
GLO Discussion Paper No. 788, 2021, Journal of Population Economics.

Alexander Kritikos

15.00 The End

Speakers:

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Section “Technological Changes and the Labor Market” of the Handbook in “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” now available online.

The Handbook in “Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics” provides an integrated picture of knowledge about the economic and social behaviors and interactions of human beings on markets, in households, in companies and in societies. A fast evolving project by the GLO with a core basis in labor economics, human resources, demography and econometrics, it will provide a large and complete summary and evaluation of the scientific state of the art. Chapters are developed under the guidance of an engaged team of editors led by the GLO President administered in 30 sections.

See LINK for more details

  • to examine the already available chapters, and
  • to find out how to contribute to this exciting venture with an own chapter.

The Section “Technological Changes and the Labor Market” is directed by Marco Vivarelli, who is also the GLO Cluster Lead of the “Technological Change” area. The Section is just completing its set of 20 published papers now available for use, review and debate. List of the articles and links to access them are below.

The Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics
Editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann


Section – Technological Changes and the Labor Market
Marco Vivarelli, Section Editor
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Department of Economic Policy, Milan, Italy

Marco Vivarelli

Note: Find abstract links of the articles below the chapter titles.

Testing the Employment and Skill Impact of New Technologies
Laura Barbieri, Chiari Mussida, Mariacristina Piva, Marco Vivarelli
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Innovation, technology adoption and employment: Evidence synthesis
Mehmet Ugur
University of Greenwich Business School

Technology and Work: Key Stylized Facts for the Digital Age
Mario Pianta
Scuola Normale Superiore

The Digital Transformation and Labor Demand
Flavio Calvino, Vincenzo Spiezia
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Digitization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences
Melanie Arntz1,2, Terry Gregory3,1, Ulrich Zierahn5,1,4
1 Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, 2University of Heidelberg, 3Institute of Labor Economics, IZA,4CESifo Research Network, 5Utrecht University

artificial-intelligence-Pixabay

AI and Robotics Innovation
Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy, Giacomo Damioli
European Commission

Robots at Work: Automatable and Non-automatable Jobs
Cecily Josten, Grace Lordan
London School of Economics

Innovation, Employment, and the Business Cycle
Bernhard Dachs1, Martin Hud2, Bettina Peters2,3
1AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, 2Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, 3University of Luxembourg

Technological Innovations and Labor Demand Using Linked Firm-Level Data
Martin Falk1, Eva Hagsten2
1USN School of Business, 2University of Iceland

Why do employees participate in innovations? Skills and organisational design issues and the ongoing technological transformation, in production
Nathalie Greenan, Silvia Napolitano
Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers

Note: Report and video of this presentation in the GLO Virtual Seminar.

Technologies and “Routinization”
Federico Biagi1, Raquel Sebastian2
1European Commission, 2Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Skill-Sets for Prospective Careers of Highly Qualified Labor
Natalia Shmatko, Leonid Gokhberg, Dirk Meissner
National Research University Higher School of Economics,Moscow

Quantity and Quality of Work in the Platform Economy
Francesco Bogliacino1, Cristiano Codagnone2,3, Valeria Cirillo4, Dario Guarascio5
1Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2Università degli Studi di Milano, 3Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, 4INAPP, National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies, 5Università degli Studi di Roma

Digital Platforms and the Transformations in the Division of Labor
Ivana Pais
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Innovation and Self-Employment
Tommaso Ciarli, Matthia Di Ubaldo, Maria Savona
University of Sussex

Photo-by-Andy-Kelly-on-Unsplash

The Present, Past, and Future of Labor-saving Technologies
Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito
1Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna

Robots, Structural Change, and Employment: Future Scenarios
Ben Vermeulen1, Andreas Pyka1, Pier Paolo Saviotti2
1University of Hohenheim, 2Utrecht University

The Role of Innovation in Structural Change, Economic Development, and the Labor Market
Önder Nomaler, Bart Verspagen
UNU-MERIT, Maastricht

Integration in Global Value Chains and Employment
Filippo Bontadini1, Rinaldo Evangelista2, Valentina Meliciani3, Maria Savona1
1University of Sussex, 2University of Camerino, 3University Luiss Guido Carli

Employment Impact of Technologies in the Developing World
Arup Mitra1, Chandan Sharma2
1South Asian University, 1Indian Institute of Management Lucknow

*****

Featured image of this post is by Alex-Knight-on-Unsplash


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Working from home and income inequality in the time of COVID-19. GLO Policy Note No. 4. By GLO Fellows Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo and Sergio Scicchitano.

GLO Policy Note No. 4
Theme 2: Inequalities and labor markets
Theme 3: Future of Work

Working from home and income inequality in the time of COVID-19

A case study of Italy

by Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo, Sergio Scicchitano

  • Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, GLO)
  • Giovanni Gallo (Sapienza University of Rome, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, GLO)
  • Sergio Scicchitano (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis – INAPP, GLO)

In a recent GLO Discussion Paper and just published in the Journal of Population Economics (Bonacini et al., 2021), we explore the potential consequences in labour income distribution of long-lasting increase in Working From Home (WFH) among Italian employees. Results show that an increase in WFH would be associated with an increase in the average labour income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in WFH would favour male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. This “forced innovation” thus risks to exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in the labour market. As a consequence, this study suggests a series of policies aimed at alleviating inequality in the short run and, more importantly, that should play a rebalancing role, in the long run.
____________________

What we should know

  • To limit the number of deaths and hospitalisations due to the novel coronavirus, most governments decided to suspend many economic activities and restrict people’s freedom of mobility.
  • In this context, the opportunity to work from home (hereinafter called WFH) became of great importance, since it allows: employees to continue working and thus receiving wages, employers to keep producing services and revenues, and overall limits infection spread risk and pandemic recessive impacts.
  • Recent estimates for the US show that between February and May 2020 over one third of the labour force switched to WFH, resulting in about half of workers working remotely during the pandemic. Remote workers have quadrupled to 50% of US workforce (Brynjolfsson et al., 2020). Due to uncertainty about the duration of the health emergency and future contagion waves, the role of WFH in the labour market is further emphasized by the fact that it might become a new standard (rather than an unconventional) way of working in many economic sectors, possibly resulting in structural effects on the labour market worldwide (Baert et al., 2020).
  • Because of the WFH sudden prominence and growth, several studies recently investigated this phenomenon, especially with the objective of identifying the number of jobs that can be done remotely (Adams-Prassl et al., 2020; Dingel and Neiman, 2020; Mongey at al., 2020). However, the literature neglects potential effects of WFH on wage distribution and on income inequality in general.

What we do

  • This study is a first to show how a future increase in WFH would be related to changes in labour income levels and inequality.
  • We analyse to what extent an increase in the number of employees who have the opportunity to WFH (or at least an increase in the likelihood their professions can be performed from home) would influence the wage distribution, under the hypothesis that this WFH feasibility shift is long lasting.
  • We focus on Italy as an interesting case study because before the pandemic, the WFH practice was not widespread and it is the first Western country to adopt a lockdown of economic activities (on March 11). Barbieri et al. (2020) estimated that at least 3 million employees started to WFH because of lockdown measures, and  a large number started even earlier due to the closure of schools and universities on March 5. Moreover, Italy was the European country with the lowest share of teleworkers before the crisis (Eurofound and ILO, 2017) and, because of the pandemic, it had to face a massive increase in WFH in a very short time without precise legislation and adequate policies.
  • Our analysis relies on a uniquely detailed dataset relying on the merge of two sample surveys: the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (INAPP-PLUS) for the year 2018, which contains information on incomes, skills, education level, and employment conditions of approximately 45,000 working-age Italians and the  Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) for the year 2013, which  provides detailed information on the task-content of occupations. The analysis is conducted through an influence function regression method which allows to estimate the impact of marginal changes on an outcome variable distribution (see the paper for more details on the method).

What we find

  • Employees with high WFH feasibility levels are more often female, older, highly educated, and among those living in metropolitan areas.
  • Economic sectors being characterized by greater shares of employees with high WFH feasibility are: Finance and Insurance, Information and Communications, and Other Business Services (e.g., car renting, travel agencies, employment agencies).
  • Figure 1 shows the wage gap between employees with high and low WFH feasibility and the share of WFH feasibility along the income deciles. The figure clearly shows that the wage gap is increasing along the distribution and reaches highest values in the last two decile groups, as well as the same incidence of high WFH feasibility among employees.

Figure 1 – Incidence of high WFH feasibility and wage gap in favor of employees with high feasibility levels by decile of annual income

What we suggest

WFH risks to exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in the labour market. In this respect, while during the current emergency, policies aimed at alleviating inequality in the short run (e.g. income support measures for the most vulnerable), should be implemented, long-term interventions are even more necessary in order to prevent future rise of inequalities in the labour market. These long-term policies go in three interrelated directions:

  • The necessary massive reorganisation of work, particularly in the field of reengineering of production processes based on new digital technologies and on the possibility offered in terms of work from home requires new and more widespread skills.
  • We need to promote through adequate  economic and cultural incentives, non-compulsory education for youth coming from poorer households. This would include training courses, which would play an important role in reducing future unequal distribution of benefits related to an increase of WFH opportunities, by increasing human capital and favouring its complementarities with technology.
  • Our study highlights that while most of the increase in WFH will concern women, the wage premium would be borne by male employees. In this perspective, a possible, non-exhaustive solution could be offered by policies aimed at improving work–family reconciliation, that continues  to be shouldered more significantly by  women. In particular, we stress the importance of an improving of public childcare and financial support to households with children.

Our study brings out several policy issues for tackling inequalities that will arise in the labour market because of the current pandemic in particular the more than probable  increase in Working From Home. Our results are based on Italian data, but they may be useful to policymakers in other countries as well and, in general, where COVID-19 has forced governments and businesses to rethink production processes with a more intense and stable use of WFH.
__________________


References

Adams-Prassl, A., Boneva, T., Golin M., Rauh C., (2020). Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13183.

Baert, S. Lippens, L. Moens, E. Sterkens, P. Weytjens, J. (2020), How do we think the COVID-19 crisis will affect our careers (if any remain)?, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 520, Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen.

Barbieri, T., Basso, G., Scicchitano, S., (2020). Italian Workers at Risk during the COVID-19 Epidemic, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 513, Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen.

Bonacini, L., Gallo, G. & Scicchitano, S. (2021). Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. J Popul Econ 34, 303–360.

Brynjolfsson, E., Horton, J. Ozimek, A. Rock, D. Sharma, G. and Yi Tu Ye, H. (2020). Covid-19 and remote work: An early look at U.S. data. NBER Working Paper 27344.

Dingel, J. I. and B. Neiman (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics 189, 104235.

Eurofound and the International Labour Office (2017), Working anytime, anywhere: The effects on the world of work, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, and the International Labour Office, Geneva.

Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., Weinberg. A., (2020). Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?. NBER Working Paper No. 27085.

Note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
Featured image: Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash

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GLO Virtual Seminars: Report & Video of Event with Nicole Simpson on ‘Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives?’

The GLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)


The last seminar was given on April 8, 2021, London/UK at 1-2 pm, by Nicole Simpson, Colgate University and GLO, on Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives? See below a report, a link to the presentation slides and the full video of the seminar.

Report

Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives?

GLO Virtual Seminar on April 8, 2021

Nicole Simpson, Colgate University and GLO

Video of Seminar. Presentation slides.

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“COVID-19” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” took place on November 23, 2020 hosted by the Central European University (CEU).

Hosted by the Central European University (CEU) and its CEU School of Public Policy (Vienna/Austria), the AE Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences” of the Academia Europaea (AE), the Academy of Europe, organized a virtual Workshop on “COVID-19” on November 23, 2020, 9 am to 5 pm, CET – Vienna time. The event was supported by the Global Labor Organization (GLO).

This was an internal meeting of the AE section on special invitation only; a larger number of section members joined during the day as did a larger number of guests from CEU & GLO placed in various parts of the world.

Central European University (CEU), Vienna

November 23, 2020: “COVID-19” Virtual Workshop of the Academia Europaea (AE) Section “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”, all CET/Vienna.

PROGRAM

Ingy Kassem

Starting at 9.00 am; Informal get together, flexible entry….

Moderator of the event: Ingy Kassem (Central European University, Executive Assistant to the Head of the School of Public Policy)

NOTE: Ingy Kassem announced the program parts. The session chairs briefly announced the speakers. The speakers took 20 minutes for presentation. 10 minutes discussion. Luxurious breaks were used for intense communication. Participants brought their own food and drinks…. The meeting was not recorded.

9.30 am; Klaus F. Zimmermann (MAE, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO): Welcome of the Section Chair

9.35 – 9.50 am; Martin Kahanec (MAE,  Central European University, Acting Dean of CEU School of Public Policy): Welcome of the Host & and CEU Business

9.50 – 10.40 am; Graziella Bertocchi (MAE, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia):
COVID-19, Race, and Redlining
Chair: Andreu Mas-Colell (MAE, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

10.40 – 10.50 am;”Water, Coffee, Tea, Cookies” (virtual)

10.50 – 11.40 am; Matthias Sutter (MAE, University of Cologne & Max-Planck Bonn):
Nudging or Paying? Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to contain COVID-19 in rural Bangladesh in a randomized controlled trial.
Chair: Reinhilde Veugelers (MAE, University of Leuven)

Some visible participants:

11.40 – 11.50 am; “Water, Coffee, Tea, Fruits” (virtual)

11.50am – 12.40 pm; Anil Duman (Guest, Central European University):
Wage Losses and Inequality in Developing Countries: labor market and distributional consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in Turkey
Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (MAE, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)

12.40 – 13.50 pm; Lunch with 3 random “seat” allocations….  (virtual, participants brought food and drinks and exchanged views in three changing group rounds)

13.50 – 14.40 pm; Peter Nijkamp (MAE, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam):
Corona Impacts on the Hospitality Market. A Space-time Economic Roller-Coaster Analysis
Chair: Martin Kahanec (MAE,  Central European University)

14.40 – 14.50 pm; “Water, Coffee, Tea, Cookies” (virtual)

14.50 – 15.40 pm; Luiz Moutinho (MAE, University of Suffolk):
Artificial Intelligence and Control of COVID-19
Chair: Mirjana Radovic-Markovic (MAE, Institute of Economic Sciences)

15.40 – 15.50 pm; “Conference picture – group photo”.

Some visible participants:

15.50 – 16.40 pm; Marcella Alsan (Guest, Harvard University):
Civil Liberties in Times of Crises
Chair: Amelie Constant (MAE, Princeton University)

16.40 – 16.50 pm; Final remarks: Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann
16.50 – 17.00 pm; “After the hour”: Section Committee only. Group photo.

The end.

AE Section Committee “Economics, Business and Management Sciences”

All speakers and conference chairs:

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GLO Virtual Young Scholars Program (GLO VirtYS): Announcement of the 2020-21 GLO VirtYS Cohort

The GLO Virtual Young Scholars Program (GLO VirtYS) 2020/2021 has started its activity.

In the spirit of the GLO Mission, the GLO VirtYS program’s goal is to contribute to the development of the future generation of researchers, who are committed to the creation of policy-relevant research, are well equipped to work in collaboration with policy makers and other stakeholders, and adhere to the highest standards of academic integrity. This goal is achieved through the process of working on a specific research paper within the duration of the program, which is 9 months, and interact with the GLO VirtYS cohort and advisors.

Under the leadership of GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova, the participants have virtually met with GLO officials and advisors on November 12 for a warm welcome and first interactions. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann and GLO Director Matloob Piracha made introductory remarks. GLO VirtYS Program Assistant Yannis Galanakis reported from his experience as a member of the GLO VirtYS 2010/2020 cohort.

The following program participants have been appointed GLO Affiliate:

Shweta Bahl, Muchin Isabel Bazan Ruiz, Jie Chen, Femke Cnossen, María Celeste Gómez, Jun Hyung Kim, Odmaa Narantungalag, and Soumya Pal.

GLO VirtYS Advisors are: Almas Heshmati, Francesco Pastore, Matloob Piracha, Eva Sierminska, Kompal Sinha, and Jan van Ours.

Snapshot from the first meeting:

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Report on the ‘Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference’, June 5-7, on COVID-19. With links to videos of the keynote lectures of Acemoglu & Manski.

Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) were jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

Speakers of June 7

Lamis Kattan, Jianan Lu, Stefan Pichler, Domenico Depalo, Robin Kaiji Gong & Sergio Scicchitano

Organizers

Wei Shi, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu

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GLO Fellows met on June 5 at the CEU in Budapest to discuss the future of Europe after the recent elections

Quo Vadis Europe after the European elections? Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann (both Budapest) debated on June 5, 2019 with Elsa Fornero (Turin) and Jonathan Portes (London) the consequences and perspectives for Europe in front of a larger audience assembled at the Central European University in Budapest. Zimmermann, President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), was chairing and moderating the event; Fornero, Kahanec and Portes are GLO Fellows.

The common economic and political development in Europe, in particular labor mobility, labor market reforms, evidence-based policy making and the role of scientists have been key elements of the public debate about the future of Europe. EU-pessimism has become stronger and stronger, and the recent EU elections provide guidance about the potentials for a recovery of the European idea in the face of Brexit and a possible dismantling of European institutions. The panel brought together experienced academic exponents combing research with policy for debate at this critical point of European history.

Klaus F. Zimmermann, George Soros Chair Professor, School of Public Policy, Central European University (CEU), President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), frequent advisor to the EU Commission and European governments and Former President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); Chair & Panelist

  • Populism and anti-globalism is on the rise.
  • Evidence-based policymaking is losing weight.
  • The value of migration and international institutions is questioned.
  • The freedom of academic institutions gets under threat.
  • Scientist are challenged to analyze and to respond to this development when also their insights are ignored.
  • Voters move away from centrist parties, who lose majority.
  • Pro-European liberals and greens become stronger and are now a third force.
  • Anti-parties (anti-Europe, anti-migration) are stronger, but not dramatically.
  • This is all a vote for a revival of the European idea.
  • Facing strong global challenges from Asia, Africa and the USA, Europe needs to stick together and develop from its strength.
  • More Europe not less is needed in the interest of the European nations and its people.
  • This implies re-inventing the European idea and export some of its great institutions: social institutions, education and training and labor mobility.

Elsa Fornero, Professor of Economics, University of Turin, Department of Business and Economics, Scientific Coordinator of CeRP – Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies and Former Minister of Labor, Social Policies and Gender Equality in Italy; Panelist

  • Reforms must live in society with the people – workers, politicians, pensioners, etc. It is not a purely technical problem.
  • We, technocrats, believed in reforms but the society did not accept them. The society misunderstood the policies as austerity measures.
  • Economic models are dealing with prosperity, but real policymaking is about elections, which are always around the corner.
  • The populists saw the weak points of reformists and the discontent of people and exploited them.
  • Labor mobility and work in Europe should be reestablished as a right of the individuals and this should be in the center of the new Europe.
  • We should strengthen the civil society – politicians and the elites should go out and talk to the people.

Martin Kahanec, Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy, Central European University (CEU), Budapest, and frequent advisor to the EU Commission; Panelist

  • These elections showed the discontent between East and West, South and North, globalists and localists
  • In the 90s the region had a dream – get rid of the Soviets, which unified the societies. And move back to Europe – Schengen, EU, Eurozone, etc. However, after they joined the EU there is a vacuum of dreams. What is our next mission?
  • Although the lowest election participation was in Slovakia, it is a EU positive country.
  • Elites and workers feared migration from outside of Europe. But not internal labor mobility.
  • Internal mobility helps build bridges over the old cleavages, but is also beneficial economically.
  • Europe should have a policy for external migration which tackles the aging population challenge. The EU needs a migration framework, which is economically profitable, but also needs to have control and be predictable.

Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe, Department of Political Economy, King’s College London, Former Chief Economist of the UK government, Former Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research; Panelist

  • The long term forces behind Brexit were not migration, but that the EU is not only an economic but also a political project. And the British felt that their positions in the world were threatened. Sentiments in this direction grew after the world economic crisis.
  • The British attitude towards migration has changed after the referendum, becoming more positive. It has to do with a drop in the migration from the EU, and an increase from the outside. The gaps created were filled with workers from outside of the EU, and the need was better understood.
  • The lack of control scared people because they wanted the “right” immigration
  • If one provides a sense of control and of the existing trade-offs, the situation will approve.
  • Thanks to the failure of May we are likely to have a hard Brexit or to reverse the results and stay in the EU. There is no middle ground anymore. Even if in a second vote the result would be “remain” – the issue would not be settled.
  • People thought that Brexit would be easy and not painful; they now realize how wrong they were.
  • If Germany turns into success its refugee immigration, then Germans would send to Europe a tremendously positive example. 

From the left during the panel: Klaus F. Zimmermann, Chair, Budapest and Bonn; Jonathan Portes, London; Elsa Fornero, Turin; and Martin Kahanec, Budapest and Vienna.

After the panel during a joint dinner from the left: The Honorable Tanya Cook, USA; CEU Professor Anil Duman and GLO Fellow; Turin Professor and Former Labor Minister Elsa Fornero; CEU Dean and Professor Martin Kahanec; and Klaus F. Zimmermann, George Soros Chair, CEU, and GLO President.

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Climate Change and Human Responses: More impressions from the KAS-FOM-GLO conference in Hong Kong co-organized by the Global Labor Organization (GLO), FOM University of Applied Sciences and Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS)

The joint FOM-GLO-KAS Conference about “Climate Change and Human Responses” co-organized by the Global Labor Organization (GLO), FOM University of Applied Sciences and Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) took place on October 31 – November 2 in Hong Kong. (See for detailed reports: DAY ONE, DAY TWO, DAY THREE ) Here are some further impressions (courtesy of KAS):

Conference participants at Day 2 after lunch.


Conference organizers (from the left): GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann, Peter Hefele, Director of the Hong Kong branch of the German Konrad-Adenauer Foundation and Andreas Oberheitmann (FOM, RWI and GLO).

RECENT GLO Discussion Papers on the issue of the conference (freely downloadable):

DP 266 Smog, Cognition and Real-World Decision MakingDownload PDF
by Chen, Xi
DP 221 Gender and climate change: Do female parliamentarians make a difference?Download PDF
by Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar
DP 86 Do Environmental Regulations Effect FDI decisions? The Pollution Haven Hypothesis Revisited – Download PDF
by Yoon, Haeyeon & Heshmati, Almas
DP 78 Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico – Download PDF
by Chort, Isabelle & de la Rupelle, Maëlys
DP 56 Happiness in the Air: How Does a Dirty Sky Affect Mental Health and Subjective Well-being? – Download PDF
by Zhang, Xin & Zhang, Xiaobo & Chen, Xi
DP 32 Smog in Our Brains: Gender Differences in the Impact of Exposure to Air Pollution on Cognitive Performance  – Download PDF
by Chen, Xi & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Xin

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