A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states.This leads to a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of (typically native) employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar migrant workers.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62qv
Author Abstract: The common European labor market enhances allocative efficiency, but certain institutional features may also trigger inefficient migration. As a job in a high-income country entails generous welfare and social insurance entitlements, migrants’ reservation wages may lie below their opportunity cost of labor. We show that this gives rise to an externality when employers and migrant workers can pass some of their remuneration costs onto taxpayers. Once welfare benefit entitlement is secured, the reservation wage of the migrant rises, giving the firm an incentive to replace the worker with a similar migrant willing to accept lower pay. This leads to excess churn—a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar workers. Based on Norwegian data, we present evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for China that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1 FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62py
GLO Fellows Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou
Xiaoyu Wu
Yi Zhou
Author Abstract: This research sheds light on the link between social norms and economic development. It explores the determinants of inheriting the mother’s surname in China and its implications for children’s health status and education outcomes. It establishes that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother. Moreover, these children have superior health and education outcomes, reflecting predominantly the impact of women’s higher bargaining power on children’s human capital accumulation.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada shows that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children.
Hendrik Jürges, Luca Stella, Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34 PDF OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of households’ exposure to violent conflict on children’s educational attainment in primary school, studying cognitive and non-cognitive skills as possible causal channels. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-level variation in the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2005). We show that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children as measured by grade point averages. We find that non-cognitive rather than cognitive skills are the channels through which exposure affects children’s educational achievement.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics examines whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. The study finds a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability than has been found in prior studies.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellows Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton
Gigi Foster
Leslie S. Stratton
Author Abstract: Social norms can have a persistent influence on outcomes. Since the end of World War II, men have been the primary breadwinner in most households in the developed world, and US data from the late twentieth century suggests violation of this norm stresses partnerships. Is this still true? We examine whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. We find a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability in OLS models for mixed-gender couples than has been found in prior studies. Transitions into female breadwinning are problematic mainly for cohabiting couples and especially so for younger people and less-educated men. These results suggest that social norms may be weakening, but mating market dynamics may also play a role. We find some evidence that cohabiting women in Australia who out-earn their partners subsequently re-partner with men who have higher earnings relative to themselves.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates for the Italian case how to identify the pandemic early in “dirty” data and how to measure the success of lockdowns.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca
Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible. Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 534, 2020
GLO Fellow Fabrizio Patriarca
Author Abstract: Identifying structural breaks in the dynamics of COVID-19 contagion is crucial to promptly assess policies and evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures. However, official data record infections after a critical and unpredictable delay. Moreover, people react to the health risks of the virus and also anticipate lockdowns. All of this makes it complex to quickly and accurately detect changing patterns in the virus’s infection dynamic. We propose a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in the time series of COVID-19 cases. We consider the case of Italy, an early-affected country that was unprepared for the situation, and detect the dates of structural breaks induced by three national lockdowns so as to evaluate their effects and identify some related policy issues. The strong but significantly delayed effect of the first lockdown suggests a relevant announcement effect. In contrast, the last lockdown had significantly less impact. The proposed methodology is robust as a real-time procedure for early detection of the structural breaks: the impact of the first two lockdowns could have been correctly identified just the day after they actually occurred.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
ANOTHER COVID-19 ARTICLE JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible. Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease, but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about Coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior.
Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible. GLO Discussion Paper No. 626, 2020
Author Abstract: This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connections across country borders. I show that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior. In the early phases of the pandemic, perceptions of coronavirus risk in most countries are affected by pandemic shocks originating in Italy. Later, the USA, Spain, and the UK play sizable roles. Social distancing responses to domestic and global health shocks are heterogeneous; however, they almost always exhibit delays and sluggish adjustments. Unemployment responses vary widely across countries. Unemployment is particularly responsive to health shocks in the USA and Spain, while unemployment fluctuations are attenuated almost everywhere else.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that the share of students in a class who are low achievers has a significant negative impact on the academic achievement of regular students.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1343-1380 FREE READLINK
Author Abstract: This paper examines the causal effects of the proportion of low-ability students in the classroom on the academic performance of regular students, exploiting random assignment of students to classes within middle schools in China. We show that the share of students in a class who are low achievers has a significant negative impact on the academic achievement of regular students in the seventh grade. The peer effects are heterogeneous along their achievement distribution, with the strongest adverse impact at the bottom end but no discernable impact at the top end. In contrast, there is no evidence that low-ability students influence any part of the achievement distribution of regular students in the ninth grade. Therefore, peer effects in academic outcomes can vary with the length of regular students’ exposure to the same group of low-ability classmates. We further show that the differences in peer effects of low-ability students in seventh and ninth grades are driven by the adjustments of students’ friendship formation and learning environment when approaching the completion of middle school.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds for the USA thatethnic attrition biases conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants.
Francisca M. Antman, Brian Duncan & Stephen J. Trejo
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1499-1522 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellow Francisca M. Antman
Author Abstract: The literature on immigrant assimilation and intergenerational progress has sometimes reached surprising conclusions, such as the puzzle of immigrant advantage which finds that Hispanic immigrants sometimes have better health than US-born Hispanics. While numerous studies have attempted to explain these patterns, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic self-identification to identify immigrants’ descendants. This can lead to bias due to “ethnic attrition,” which occurs whenever a US-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. In this paper, we exploit information on parents’ and grandparents’ place of birth to show that Mexican ethnic attrition, operating through intermarriage, is sizable and positively selected on health, making subsequent generations of Mexican immigrants appear less healthy than they actually are. Consequently, conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants have been significantly overstated.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper just published in the Journal of Population Economics attributes the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities, not to socio-demographics or so-called “tiger parenting” styles.
Ha Trong Nguyen, Luke B. Connelly, Huong Thu Le, Francis Mitrou, Catherine L. Taylor & Stephen R. Zubrick
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1381–1418 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellows Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly
Ha Nguyen
Luke Connelly
Author Abstract: In most English-speaking countries, the children of Asian immigrants have better academic outcomes than other children, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are unclear. Using decade-long time use diaries on two cohorts of children, we present new evidence that children of Asian immigrants spend more time than their peers on educational activities beginning at school entry and that the ethnicity gap in the time allocated to educational activities increases as children age. We can attribute the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities, not to socio-demographics or so-called “tiger parenting” styles. Furthermore, our results show substantial heterogeneity in the contributions of initial cognitive abilities and time allocations by test subjects, children’s ages, and points of the test score distribution.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warnings but are more likely to stay when very intense storms occur or are forecasted.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1419-1461 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellow Marjorie C. Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño A. Vasquez
Author Abstract: The environmental migration literature presents conflicting results: While some research finds that natural disasters induce international migration, other work discovers a dampening effect. We construct an innovative longitudinal provincial dataset for the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. Using a comprehensive list of weather shocks, it is possible to identify major channels behind those conflicting findings. Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warnings but are more likely to stay when very intense storms occur or are forecasted.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds substantial heterogeneity in the effects of extreme temperature exposure on birth outcomes. In particular, prenatal exposure to heat waves has stronger negative effects than exposure to cold spells on surviving births.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1263-1302 FREE READLINK
GLO FellowXi Chen
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of prenatal exposure to extreme temperatures on birth outcomes—specifically, the log of birth weight and an indicator for low birth weight—using a nationally representative dataset on rural China. During the time period we examine (1991–2000), indoor air conditioning was not widely available and migration was limited, allowing us to address identification issues endemic in the climate change literature related to adaptation and location sorting. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of extreme temperature exposure on birth outcomes. In particular, prenatal exposure to heat waves has stronger negative effects than exposure to cold spells on surviving births.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics indicates that the decrease in public sector employment, which is particularly appealing to women, may have contributed to the recent rise in fertility in Egypt.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1173-1218 FREE READLINK
GLO FellowCaroline Krafft
Author Abstract: Can declining employment opportunities for women reverse the fertility transition? This paper presents evidence that the demographic transition has not just stalled but in fact reversed in Egypt. After falling for decades, fertility rates increased. The paper examines the drivers of rising fertility rates, with a particular focus on the role of declining public sector employment opportunities for women. Estimates show the effect of public sector employment on the spacing and occurrence of births using discrete-time hazard models. The paper then uses the results to simulate total fertility rates. The models address the potential endogeneity of employment by incorporating woman-specific fixed effects, incorporating local employment opportunities rather than women’s own employment, and using local employment opportunities as an instrument. Results indicate that the decrease in public sector employment, which is particularly appealing to women, may have contributed to the rise in fertility but is unlikely to be its main cause.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1303-1341 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellow Weiguang Deng and GLO Affiliate Dayang Li
Author Abstract: This study uses a field experiment to resolve the difficulties of quantifying personal appearance and identify a direct causal relationship between appearance and employment in China. The experiment reveals that taste-based pure appearance discrimination exists at the pre-interview stage. There are significant gender-specific heterogeneous effects of education on appearance discrimination: having better educational credentials reduces appearance discrimination among men but not among women. Moreover, attributes of the labor market, companies, and vacancies matter. Beauty premiums are larger in big cities with higher concentrations of women and in male-focused research positions. Similarly, the beauty premium is larger for vacancies with higher remuneration.
The paper has beenGLO Discussion Paper No. 369, 2020.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that raising the school leaving age can be effective in reducing the incidence of teenage pregnancy among socially excluded women, even if it does not affect the general population. An important policy implication is the potentially heterogeneous impact of educational interventions across different ethnic groups.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1219-1261 OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4–26.0% and delayed motherhood by 2 years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births and contains information on the time of conception. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.
The paper has beenGLO Discussion Paper No. 474, 2020.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that risk aversion has a robust and statistically significant negative impact on willingness to migrate within countries as well as abroad.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 4: 1463-1498 OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: This paper uses individual-level data covering 30 transition countries that account for over one-quarter of the worldwide immigrant stock to assess the impact of risk aversion on willingness to migrate. It extends the previous literature by allowing the effect of risk aversion to depend on the level of risk in the sending country. Consistent with theories of individual-level migration decisions, we find that risk aversion has a robust and statistically significant negative impact on willingness to migrate within countries as well as abroad. As predicted by theory, this impact is robustly less negative in riskier sending countries. Furthermore, this negative impact is significantly larger for willingness to migrate abroad than willingness to migrate internally. We also find that, even after controlling for an extensive set of control variables, willingness to migrate internally and abroad are highly correlated. This suggests that internal and international mobility decisions are closely linked.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
In GLO Discussion Paper No. 450, GLO FellowsStepan Jurajda and Dejan Kovač have recently provided research evidence revealing that given first names of leaders from World War II can predict behavior in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and beyond in society including voting. It provides hard evidence for intergenerational transmission of nationalism. This research work has found already much interest in the scientific community and beyond. It is now published online first in the Journal of Population Economics (see details and access link below). Recently, the authors were interviewed by GLO about the background and context of this research.
Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and Behavior in a War, GLO Discussion Paper 450, 2020. Online First: Journal of Population Economics. Click to read: READLINK!
Abstract
We implement a novel empirical strategy for measuring and studying a strong form of nationalism—the willingness to fight and die in a war for national independence—using name choices corresponding to a previous war leader. Based on data on almost half a million soldiers, we first show that having been given a first name that is synonymous with the leader(s) of the Croatian state during World War II predicts volunteering for service in the 1991–1995 Croatian war of independence and dying during the conflict. Next, we use the universe of Croatian birth certificates and the information about nationalism conveyed by first names to suggests that in ex-Yugoslav Croatia, nationalism rose continuously starting in the 1970s and that its rise was curbed in areas where concentration camps were located during WWII. Our evidence on intergenerational transmission of nationalism is consistent with nationalist fathers purposefully reflecting the trade-off between within-family and society-wide transmission channels of political values. We also link the nationalist values we proxy using first name choices to right-wing voting behavior in 2015, 20 years after the war.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.
OPEN ACCESS – Published Online. Forthcoming in print version: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34.
Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
GLO Policy Brief No. 3 – Special theme: COVID-19 and policy implications
COVID-19 and the Consequences for Free Trade
by Ewa Björling, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Magnus Lodefalk & Fredrik Sjöholm
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global trade, investment and value chains. There is a risk that newly imposed barriers to international trade and mobility will become permanent. Research shows that veiled protectionism in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic would be associated with greater risks and impede the economic recovery needed to avoid a new economic depression. We argue that failing to reboot free trade and to restore global value chains could aggravate an already difficult and delicate situation in regard to global economic development and poverty reduction. In order to reboot globalization, however, there needs to be a new approach. Simply going over old ground would be insufficient. ____________________
Ewa Björling
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou
Magnus Lodefalk
Fredrik Sjöholm
Ewa Björling, MD, Associate Professor of Virology, Sweden’s Minister for Trade 2007-2014.
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, PhD, CEO of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.
Magnus Lodefalk, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics, Örebro University; Ratio Institute, Sweden; and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization.
Fredrik Sjöholm, PhD, Professor of International Economics, Lund University, and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden.
What we should know
Restrictions and lockdowns to address the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted international markets and global value chains. The travel and trade restrictions imposed by many countries are extreme and unusual both in nature and their implementation, wreaking havoc on global trade and investment flows. These restrictions have been adopted despite lack of evidence of their effectiveness. Some measures go against the guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Protectionism and anti-globalization tides have been rising already before the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brexit and the China-U.S. trade war, as two examples. The policy response to the pandemic now risks to make the situation worse and constitutes a major disruption to global trade, investment and value chains. Early economic indicators suggest that this disruption is severely hurting growth and employment (Gopinath 2020).
Global poverty and inequality are grounds for justifiable concerns. Research suggests that failing to ensure free and predictable markets would be associated with significant risks to poverty and inequality.
Many policies to combat the coronavirus pandemic are actually causing both short-term problems for fighting the pandemic, as well as risks in regard to economic recovery, employment, development and poverty reduction over the medium and long term (Evenett 2020, Hoekman et al 2020, Zimmermann et al. 2020).
Difficulties in getting supplies of medical equipment have triggered an increased interest in de-globalizing value chains (Miroudot 2020). Already before the pandemic, companies and countries were considering a regionalization or even a nationalization of global value chains. This due to a more adverse trade policy environment, rising wages in manufacturing strongholds and technological advances, e.g., in automation.
The state of free trade in the wake of COVID-19
Unilaterally imposing high travel and trade barriers creates uncertainty for exporters and importers of goods and services, as well as for foreign investors. Research indicates that uncertainty about the stability of the rules of the game has a major negative impact on trade and investment, beyond the barriers imposed by the rules themselves (see, e.g., Handley and Limao 2013).
Temporary policies risk becoming permanent. They could become precedents for trade barriers and unilateralism in the future.
Asymmetric timing for when countries reopen and assymetric epidemiological strategies, pose real risks of triggering protectionism (Bown 2020). For example, when one country is back to full production and shipping, countries that still have not reopened their economies will likely face rising pressure to ‘protect’ domestic businesses.
Less-developed countries are more exposed to the risks associated with a failure to reboot and revitalize international trade, investment and value chains. They often face additional difficulties in handling the pandemic itself because of their relatively weaker health care systems. Existing and new trade barriers, such as export restrictions on medical products and food, will exacerbate this situation (Hoekman et al. 2020). Moreover, capital is now fleeing from poor to richer countries. The poorest and most debt-ridden countries can thus be hit twice in the form of the pandemic, and globalization in reverse.
A reboot and a new approach to globalization is needed
In the short term, a coordinated approach among the major economies on measures to address both the pandemic and its economic consequences are needed. A first step should be to tear down the border and trade barriers put up in the wake of the pandemic (Stellinger et al 2020).
In the short to medium term, it is necessary to formulate a strategy to reduce the risks from asymmetric timing in reopening and from differences in the fight against the pandemic.
A head-on measure would be to introduce a new free trade and investment agreement that abolish all tariffs and other barriers to trade and investment in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other equipment used to prevent or combat pandemics (Bown 2020b, Stellinger et al 2020).
Business leaders should act to encourage more resilient and sustainable global value chains, for example by having more suppliers, warehouses and using modern technology to monitor the chains and their resilience in real time (Miroudot 2020). This would be a win-win for the climate and for economic growth.
Governments must refrain from top-down attempts to address current and future difficulties of getting supplies by reshoring production of various goods and services (Stellinger et al. 2020). There is ample research on the harmfulness of import-substitution policies.
In the longer term, countries need to safeguard both global health and prosperity through common strategies and commitments, concrete measures for future crises and mechanisms for consultations. New and even more serious pandemics cannot be excluded. Countries will have to be able to act quickly, in a coordinated fashion and in a transparent way.
A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism.
Mechanisms for applying and enforcing stringent requirements on countries to live up to standards and obligations put in place to minimize the risk of pandemics should be evaluated.
The concept of sustainability within the global trading system could be extended to encompass not only environmental and social aspects, but also aspects that more clearly impact public health and epidemiological risks. Increased cross-institutional links between bodies such as the WHO and the WTO should also be created to promote knowledge exchange and technical assistance.
The policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted international markets. However, simply restoring free trade would mean ignoring massive human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism. Leaders and policymakers must make concerted efforts to: carefully lift restrictions on travel and trade while protecting health; commit to liberalize essential trade for fighting pandemics; address how to deal with calls for protecting domestic industries in the presence of asymmetric economic reopening; and sustain international yet resilient value chains. The aim should be to develop the international trading system to both reduce the risks of pandemics and protectionism. __________________
References
Bown, C. (2020a). “COVID-19 could bring down the trading system: How to stop protectionism from running amok.”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.
Hoekman, B.M., Fiorini, M. and A. Yildirim (2020). “Export restrictions: a negative-sum policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.”, EUI RSCAS Working Paper 2020/23.
May 28, 2020: Don DeVoretz (*May 28, 1942; + March 14, 2020), a prominent migration researcher, GLO Fellow and long-term collaborator of the GLO President, Klaus F. Zimmermann, would have been 78 today. We bemoan and remember a great scientist and friend.
Don DeVoretz obtained his doctorate in Economics from the University of Wisconsin (Madison) in 1968. He was the co-director of the Centre of Excellence for the Study of Immigration (1996-2007) and Professor of Economics at Simon Fraser University (since 1968) and Professor Emeritus (since 2010).
Don DeVoretz has held visiting positions at Duke University, University of Ibadan (Nigeria), University of the Philippines, University of Wisconsin, and the Norwegian School of Economics.
Don DeVoretz was named the Willy Brandt Professor in 2004 at IMER, Malmö University.
Don DeVoretz, a friend of the late Julian Simon, gave the first Julian Simon Lecture at IZA in 2004.
Selective Publications
Don DeVoretz, Nahikari Irastorza. Economic Theories of Citizenship Ascension. In: Ayelet Shachar, Rainer Bauböck, Irene Bloemraad, Maarten Vink (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Citizenship. Oxford 2017.
Don J. DeVoretz. The Economics of Immigrant Citizenship Ascension. In: Amelie Constant, Klaus F. Zimmermann, International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, Edward Elgar 2013.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Martin Kahanec, Amelie F. Constant, Don J. DeVoretz, Liliya Gataullina, Anzelika Zaiceva. Study on the Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities. Report for the High Level Advisory Group on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities and the European Commission, Bonn 2008, IZA Research Report No. 16.
Don J. DeVoretz. Immigration Policy: Methods of Economic Assessment. International Migration Review, 2006, 40 (2), 390-418. (Based on the Julian Simon Lecture 2004.)
Don J. DeVoretz, Samuel A. Laryea. Canadian Immigration Experience: Any Lessons for Europe? In: : K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
Don J. DeVoretz (Ed.). Diminishing Returns: The Economics of Canada’s Recent Immigration Policy. C. D. Howe Institute 1995.
Ather Akbari, Don J. DeVoretz. The Substitutability of Foreign Born Labour in Canadian Production: Circa 1980. Canadian Journal of Economics, 25(3): 604-614. 1992.
Interviews with Associates
Below are two interviews with close associates of Don DeVoretz:
GLO Fellow Ather Akbari is Professor of Economics at Saint Mary’s University in Canada and Chair of the Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity. He is a former PhD student of Devoretz.
GLO Fellow Pieter Bevelander is a Professor at Malmö University and Director of the Malmö Institute for Studies of Migration, Diversity and Welfare. He is a former research partner of Devoretz.
Ather Akbari
Pieter Bevelander
Interview with Ather Akbari
GLO: How was Don as a teacher and PhD supervisor?
Ather Akbari: I wrote my doctoral thesis, entitled “Some Economic Impacts of Immigrant Population in Canada” under Don’s supervision. At that time (1980s), there was a paucity of empirical research on Canadian immigration, but interest in impact of immigration was growing in public policy circles, as well as in general public. Under Don’s supervision, I really learned to communicate results of an academic research for both academic and nonacademic audience. Results of my thesis attracted a lot of attention in news media and in public policy circles and I owe it a lot to my training under Don.
GLO: What was your joint prominent paper in the Canadian Journal of Economics about?
Ather Akbari: This paper entitled “Substitutability of Immigrants in Canadian Production Circa 1980” (not a part of my thesis) was the first in Canada to assess if immigrants displaced Canadian born workers in Canadian industries. Using data from Canadian census, we estimated a translog production function and found that although there was displacement in some industrial sectors, overall there was no displacement effect.
GLO: Migration research was his focus, can you outline an example from his work?
Ather Akbari: I think Don’s most important contribution to migration research are his many contributions to the economics of citizenship. He has published conceptual and empirical research in this area. He also co-edited a book on the issue with Pieter Bevelander (Malmö University) with a preface written by Irene Bloemraad (Berkley University). This volume had contributions from Europe and North America. Main focus of the book was to present evidence on the impact of citizenship status on economic performance and contributions of immigrants in the host country. Very important policy implications as rights for citizenship ascension vary much across countries.
GLO: What was his contribution to policy advice, in particular to Canadian migration policy?
Ather Akbari: In the late 1980s, the Canadian government undertook a demographic review of Canadian population. All forecasts based on the demographics of the time indicated that Canada was moving towards a population distribution which will be more heavily skewed towards the elderly. This could could cause economic and labor market challenges. Don was very passionate in recommending to the Canadian government that it should liberalize its immigration policy as one important tool to meet these challenges. He was also in favor of attracting international students and for liberalizing rules for their permanent residency. Over time, Canadian immigration policy became more liberal. He was also very much in favor of immigration policy based on evidence-based research. He promoted an increased availability of data for researchers and was among the proponents of the use of administrative data in connection with survey data (especially the Longitudinal Immigration Database, IMDB).
GLO: Don was increasingly worried about the future of migration, what do you think are the major challenges ahead?
Ather Akbari: Globalization has resulted in greater movement of goods and people around the world and has resulted in great benefits. However, many have also been hurt, economically and politically, by unequal distribution of these benefits. In the West, this has led to the current wave of nationalism which threatens free movements of goods and of people. World leaders, academic researchers and news media need to address this seriously.
Interview with Pieter Bevelander
GLO: How did you get connected with Don?
Pieter Bevelander: I met Don DeVoretz in Spring 2004. He had just taken up the Willy Brandt Guest Professorshipat the Department of International Migration and Ethnic Relations at Malmö University. He felt a bit lost among all non-economists that were working there. I was myself just on a post doc visit at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, and met him when I was on a visit. During his first weeks in Malmö he had read my dissertation on the employment integration of immigrants in Sweden and showed especially large interest into the citizenship analysis. Further that Spring, he organized in Malmö a multidisciplinary workshop on the consequences of citizenship ascension in different countries and from different disciplinary angles.
GLO: You published together the edited volume The Economics of Citizenship. How did this project evolve?
Pieter Bevelander: Since the workshop in 2004 and his time in Malmö we slowly started to have conversations on a volume on the economic effects of citizenship in different countries. Don was a Research Fellow at IZA and met often its Director in Bonn. Through this network it was possible to meet either in Bonn or on his way into Europe in Malmö. We presented our ideas and papers at conferences and started to screen possible researchers for being part of the volume. We published then the book in 2008.
GLO: How has this project affected your both careers and the profession?
Pieter Bevelander: For us both, Don and me, this volume has been very valuable. It was followed by subsequent articles, handbook chapters, policy papers for think tanks and government institutions, all analyzing why immigrants take up the citizenship of another country and whether this leads to increased economic integration in new environment. Don, for instance, was involved in policy recommendations through the think tank Center for American Progress in 2014 about how to find a way for allowing undocumented migrants to become full citizens in the US. Today, I am an advisor for the Swedish government’s investigation about changing citizenship regulations.
NOTE *********** With Ather Akbari & Pieter Bevelander spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
Klaus F. Zimmermann: Don DeVoretz has been a academic companion for most parts of my life as a migration researcher.
We met 1992 when we both participated at the famous migration workshop, Herbert Giersch organized in Vancouver for the Egon-Sohmen-Foundation. (Herbert Giersch, Ed., Economic Aspects of International Migration, Springer Berlin. Heidelberg, 1994.)
He visited me during my tenure as Professor of Economics at the University of Munich and was part of the migration network I had created at the time as Programme Director Migration for the Centre of Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London. A CEPR conference on “European Migration – What Do We Know?”, which I organized 1997 at the University of Munich mobilized the network which enabled the publication of K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
After I created IZA, the Institute for the Study of Labor, as the Founding Director in 1998 in Bonn, Don DeVoretz and the migration network moved with me, and I appreciated his experienced support for two decades. Within this period, he was instrumental in large research projects for the Volkswagen Foundation (“The Economics and Persistence of Migrant Ethnicity”, 2005 – 2008) and the European Commission (“Study on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities”, 2006 – 2007). He helped building up and developing the IZA migration network together with Amelie Constant and Barry Chiswick. He started the prominent IZA Julian Simon Lecture series in 2004, and was a regular visitor throughout the period.
Don DeVoretz stayed in contact with email exchange and ambitious research projects until earlier this year. We all miss his friendship, sharp thinking and helpful advice.
2007 Washington DC Don DeVoretz next to Sol Polachek (right) Upper part above left: Pieter Bevelander
2005 Ethnicity Meeting Bonn Don DeVoretz with Klaus F. Zimmermann
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that information and communications technology (ICT) significantly increases students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and higher wages. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1101-1126 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on college students’ labor market performance. Using a large, representative survey of college students in China, we examine outcomes before and after students were exposed to technology-aided instruction, compared with students who were not exposed to such instruction. The results indicate that the ICT program significantly increased students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and the wage they were offered. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search. While most previous studies of the use of technology in education focus only on students’ academic achievement and find zero or negative effects, our study demonstrates that technology may be an effective tool for improving college students’ labor market performance, and that the potential benefits of technology might be underestimated if we focus only on test scores and ignore students’ career development.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides a model that can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1025-1068 FREE READ LINK
GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner
Author Abstract: To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that housing or real estate improves the man’s status in the marriage market of Taiwan.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1005-1023 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: In theory, people who own real estate should have advantage finding a partner in the marriage market. Empirical analyses along this line, however, face three issues. First, it is difficult to identify any causality for whether housing facilitates marriage or expected marriage facilitates a housing purchase. Second, survey samples usually do not cover very wealthy people, and so the observations are top coding in the wealth dimension. Third, getting married is a dynamic life cycle decision, and rich life-history data are rarely available. This paper uses registry data from Taiwan to estimate the impact of males’ housing wealth on their first-marriage duration, taking into account all three issues mentioned above. We find that a 10% increase in real estate wealth increases probability of a man getting married in any particular year by 3.92%. Our finding suggests that housing or real estate is a status good in the marriage market.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics highlights that fathers in Australia play a pivotal role in the skill production process of their kidsover the lifecourse.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 957-1004 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: We examine the role that parental engagement with child’s education plays in the lifecourse dynamics of locus of control (LOC), one of the most widely studied non-cognitive skills related to economic decision-making. We focus on parental engagement as previous studies have shown that it is malleable, easy to measure, and often available for fathers, whose inputs are notably understudied in the received literature. We estimate a standard skill production function using rich British cohort data. Parental engagement is measured with information provided at age 10 by the teacher on whether the father or the mother is very interested in the child’s education. We deal with the potential endogeneity in parental engagement by employing an added-value model, using lagged measures of LOC as a proxy for innate endowments and unmeasured inputs. We find that fathers’, but not mothers’, engagement leads to internality, a belief associated with positive lifetime outcomes, in both young adulthood and middle age for female and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort members. Fathers’ engagement also increases the probability of lifelong internality and fully protects against lifelong externality. Our findings highlight that fathers play a pivotal role in the skill production process over the lifecourse.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that an early-life social safety net program has a sizeable impact on child health outcomes at birth.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 883-956 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: We study the acting mechanism of an early-life social safety net program and quantify its impact on child health outcomes at birth. We consider both the equity and efficiency implications of program impacts and provide a metric to compare such programs around the world. In particular, we estimate the impact of participation in Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC), Chile’s flagship early-life health and social welfare program, using a difference-in-differences style model based on variation in program intensity and administrative birth data matched to social benefits usage. We find that this targeted social program had significant effects on birth weight (approximately 10 grams) and other early-life human capital measures. These benefits are largest among the most socially vulnerable groups but shift outcomes toward the middle of the distribution of health at birth. We show that the program is efficient when compared to other successful neonatal health programs around the world and find some evidence to suggest that maternal nutrition components and increased links to the social safety net are important action mechanisms.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides causal evidence that children increase mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness in a large sample of women from 35 developing countries.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 839-882 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: This article presents causal evidence on the impact of fertility on women’s subjective well-being using quasi-experimental variation due to preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition (having at least one child of each sex). Based on a large sample of women from 35 developing countries, I find that having children increases mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness. I further establish that the positive impact of fertility on subjective well-being can be explained by related increases in mothers’ satisfaction with family life, friendship, and treatment by others.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows that Vietnam’s two-child policy decreased the average number of living children per woman, decreased also the proportion of sons in each family and increased maternal employment.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 751-794 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: In 1988, facing a total fertility rate of over four births per woman, the Vietnamese government introduced a new policy that required parents to have no more than two children. Using data from the Vietnam Population and Housing Censuses from 1989, 1999, and 2009, I apply a differences-in-differences framework to assess the effects of this policy on family size, son preference, and maternal employment. I find that the policy decreased the probability that a woman has more than two children by 15 percentage points for younger women and by 7 percentage points for middle-aged women. The policy reduced the average number of living children by 0.2 births per woman. Low-education women and women in rural areas were more affected by the policy. The policy had no effects on mothers’ age at first birth and gender of mothers’ last birth. The reduction in fertility caused by the policy was associated with a 1.2 percentage point decrease in the proportion of sons in each family. The policy increased maternal employment by 1.3 percentage points. Instrumental variables estimates of the effects of fertility on maternal employment and child education suggest a negative relationship between the number of children and female labor supply and a trade-off between child quantity and child quality in Vietnam.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
by Lucio Esposito, Sunil Mitra Kumar, Adrián Villaseñor
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3:1069–1099 PDF of the article OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: We study the effect of birth order on educational outcomes in Mexico using 2 million observations from the 2010 Census. We find that the effect of birth order is negative, and a variety of endogeneity and robustness checks suggest a causal interpretation of this finding. We then examine whether these effects vary across households’ economic status, and we find significant heterogeneity across absolute as well as relative standards of living, operationalized as household wealth and relative deprivation. Finally, we find that firstborns’ advantage is amplified when they are male, and in particular when other siblings are female.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A substantially revised version of a recent GLO Discussion Paper (also the GLO Discussion Paper of the Month March) on the Coronacrisis in China has been accepted after rigorous peer review for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.The responsible Editor (and Editor-in-Chief, E-i-C) of the Journal, GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann, has given an interview to IESR, the Institute for Economic and Social Research of Jinan University, which has been published online today. It is documented below. Authors Yun Qiu & Wei Shi are Professors at IESR, Xi Chen is Professor at Yale University.
“Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China”byQiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020. PDF of the prepublication revised draft.
Major Findings
Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate.
Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions.
Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided according to the estimates based on the analysis.
Most effective was found to be “city lockdown” first followed by “closed management of communities” and “family outdoor restrictions”.
IESR: From your perspective, what is the most important contribution of this paper? And what kind of impact would you like to see this paper to have?
E-i-C: To my knowledge this is the first published paper in an economics journal dealing with the coronavirus challenge. We learn a lot about how it happened and what the reactions of public authorities and Chinese people were. It is indeed the objective of this rigorous study to separate the epidemiological process from those responses and to quantify them in the face of a difficult data situation. On this way, the paper defines methodological standards and provides conclusions that will serve as a reference for may studies to come for China and all parts of the world.
IESR: Why do you think this paper is a good fit with the Journal of Population Economics? How does this paper distinguish itself from other related work appeared on scientific and medical journals?
E-i-C: The virus crucially affects human risky behavior, wellbeing and mortality, which is at the core of population economics. The specific economic focus is the weight the paper gives to the analysis of individual and government behavior and counterfactual investigations.
IESR: The editorial process was exceptionally fast for this paper. Why do you think it is very important to have a fast track for this research? And how did the Journal make this expedited process possible?
E-i-C: It typically takes years to get a paper accepted in a top economics journal as a matter of principle. The standard is slow refereeing and substantial revisions of submitted papers and a tough process to access the highest-ranked possible outlet. The Journal of Population Economics is the leader in its field. Authors and Journal have seen the perfect match for this article early on, but the paper nevertheless went through the standard, high-quality anonymous peer refereeing. Three referees provided detailed reports with substantial requests for revision within a week, while a normal response time would be about six weeks. The authors responded within two weeks convincingly and very detailed to all suggestions to reach the best possible output at this time. We kept all administrative procedures at the minimum. All parties were very supportive due to the particular importance of this research for the current global debate.
IESR: Different countries have been taking different actions toward fighting COVID-19. We would like to hear your thoughts on the effectiveness of China’s strategies and actions, and if there are lessons can be learned by other countries.
E-i-C: It is well-known from previous pandemics that social distancing and the tracing of networks of infections are crucial for containing the disease. The lockdown measure of the Chinese strategy has been shown as very important. It has been followed by very many countries, although sometimes with some delay. However, since the challenge without proper medicine and with missing herd immunity is long-term, one should be cautious to pretend that the best detailed strategy is already obvious. The fear about a second wave of infections is present world-wide. We indeed hope to learn also from the differentiated strategies across countries to handle the crisis and to search and test for hard empirical evidence.
IESR: Do you have any other thoughts related to this research that you’d like to share with us?
E-i-C: The core of the best policy advice is good data to understand, follow and influence the process of the disease. The data which is world-wide in use has many difficulties, e.g. even when it comes to understand the basis issues who is infected or recovered, and to separate who died with or because of the virus. We need better statistics and instruments for ad hoc-surveys. We further need to study the global institutional flexibility to better react to pandemics.
********* IESR is the Institute for Economic and Social Research of Jinan University; E-i-C is the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann, who was the acting responsible Editor of the paper.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics updates research on son preferences in the United States. In contrast to previous research, any apparent son preference in fertility decisions have disappeared among natively born Americans, while some evidence for son preference in fertility persists among immigrants.
Read more in:
Francine D. Blau, Lawrence M. Kahn, Peter Brummund, Jason Cook & Miriam Larson-Koester Is there still son preference in the United States? See READLINK. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2020), Vol. 33, Issue 3. LEAD ARTICLE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
Author Abstract: In this paper, we use 2008–2013 American Community Survey data to update and further probe evidence on son preference in the USA. In light of the substantial increase in immigration, we examine this question separately for natives and immigrants. Dahl and Moretti (Review of Economic Studies 75, 1085-1120, 2008) found earlier evidence consistent with son preference in that having a female first child raised fertility and increased the probability that the family was living without a father. We find that for our more recent period, having a female first child still raises the likelihood of living without a father, but is instead associated with lower fertility, particularly for natives. Thus, by the 2008–2013 period, any apparent son preference in fertility decisions appears to have been outweighed by factors such as cost concerns in raising girls or increased female bargaining power. In contrast, some evidence for son preference in fertility persists among immigrants. Immigrant families that have a female first child have significantly higher fertility and are more likely to be living without a father (though not significantly so). Further, gender inequity in source countries is associated with son preference in fertility among immigrants. For both first- and second-generation immigrants, the impact of a female first-born child on fertility is more pronounced for immigrants from source countries with less gender equity. Finally, we find no evidence of sex selection for the general population of natives and immigrants, suggesting that it does not provide an alternative mechanism to account for the disappearance of a positive fertility effect for natives.
Related recent papers from the GLO network on son preferences:
A recent GLO Discussion Paper (also the GLO Discussion Paper of the Month March) had documented that the public health measures adopted in China have effectively contained the virus outbreak there already around February 15. Now a substantially revised version of the paper based on rigorous peer review has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate.
Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions.
Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided according to the estimates based on the analysis.
Most effective was found to be “city lockdown” first followed by “closed management of communities” and “family outdoor restrictions”.
GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March
GLO Discussion Paper No. 494, 2020: GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March
Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei PDF of the GLO Discussion Paper
Yun Qiu & Wei Shi are Professors at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University, China
Xi Chen is a Professor at Yale University & President of the China Health Policy and Management Society
Yun Qiu
Xi Chen
Wei Shi
Revised Abstract: This paper models the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29 in 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics two weeks ago are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.
Will happiness levels return to normal before the end of 2020? Talita Greyling and Stephanié Rossouw of GLO analyze the situation, as it happens – real-time happiness levels and emotions (www.gnh.today) during the evolution of the Coronavirus Crisis. The Gross National Happiness data set used (a real-time Happiness Index) is an ongoing project, the two researchers launched in April 2019 in South-Africa, New-Zealand and Australia.
The project is presented below and documents the development of real-time happiness in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa in the periods of the outbreak of the Coronacrisis in those countries.
The authors
Talita Greyling:School of Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, and GLO; email: talitag@uj.ac.za Stephanié Rossouw:Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand,and GLO; email: stephanie.rossouw@aut.ac.nz
Stephanie Rossouw
Talita Greyling
The analysis
Traditionally, economists measured the well-being of people or a nation by using objective economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP). We know that these indicators do not measure well-being per se, but merely specific conditions, which is believed to lead to a good life. What we should be measuring is whether people’s lives are getting better? In general, when people are happy and satisfied with their life, it signals that they have a higher level of well-being.
Gross National Happiness (GNH) refers to the level of happiness for a group of citizens or nations and the best-known surveys that captures cross country data are the Gallup World Poll Survey data and World Value Survey data. In these surveys we find measures of subjective-wellbeing, thus evaluative happiness, which if averaged across a country gives the mean subjective well-being of a specific country. Although these measures of subjective well-being are very useful and informative there are significant time-lags between real-time events and the reporting of this evaluative happiness levels. What is needed is a real-time measure of happiness.
Using social media and the voluntary information sharing structure of Twitter, Greyling and Rossouw (in collaboration with AFSTEREO) have been determining the happiness in real-time (mood) of citizens in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa since April 2019 (http://gnh.today/), and lately also been analyzing the specific emotions of Tweets, distinguishing between eight emotions, anger, anticipation, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, trust and surprise.
They analyze extracted Tweets using sophisticated software to determine the sentiment and the emotions of the Tweets. Sentiment analysis is used to label a ‘live’ stream of tweets of these countries as having either a positive, neutral or negative sentiment after which a sentiment balance algorithm is applied to derive a happiness score. The scale of the happiness scores is between 0 (not happy) and 10 (very happy), with 5 being neutral, thus neither happy nor unhappy. In this manner, they have been tracking the ‘mood’ of these nations and analyzed the impact of various economic (industrial actions), political (national elections), social (death of Kobe Bryant and COVID-19, xenophobia, music concerts) and sport events on happiness levels, as early as one hour after it happened. See Figures 1-3 for a peek into what the happiness index can ascertain.
As can be seen from Figure 1, on 25 January when Australia confirmed its first COVID-19 case, there was very little reaction. Happiness even increased somewhat after the announcement, though the higher levels of happiness were related to sport events. The dip in the happiness on 27 January was due to the death of the American basketball player, Kobe Bryant. On 17 March when Prime Minister Scott Morrison banned gatherings larger than 100 people, we for the first time saw a significant decrease in the happiness levels. The Australians are not on complete lockdown, but it seems that their happiness levels continue to stay below pre-Corona times. We will be tracking these changes in the coming weeks, to see if the happiness levels return to pre-Corona levels as time goes by.
Coincidentally, until the outbreak of COVID-19, the lowest happiness level in New Zealand was on 27 January (6.43), also signalling New Zealanders’ empathy with Kobe Bryant’s death. As can be seen from the Figure 2, on 28 February when New Zealand confirmed its first COVID-19 case, there was very little reaction. On 4 March, New Zealand experienced the ‘Toilet paper apocalypse’, but it wasn’t until 13 March that the lowest level of happiness (6.37) was recorded. People were devastated by all the concert and festival cancellations, because of COVID-19. The first day of complete lockdown was on 26 March. We will be monitoring whether New Zealanders adjust to their new normal over the coming weeks.
As can be seen from Figure 3, on 6 March when South Africa confirmed its first COVID-19 case, the happiness level was above the average for the period preceding the outbreak, as well as the total average. It wasn’t until 16 March when reality set in for most South Africans after President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national state of disaster, that we saw a decrease in happiness levels. When the announcement came on 23 March, that a complete lockdown of South Africa will commence on 27 March, the index fell to its lowest level yet (5.35). We will be monitoring whether South Africans adjust to their new normal over the coming weeks.
Technical Support by AFSTEREO
Reference Greyling T. & Rossouw S. 2020. Gross National Happiness Project. Afstereo (IT partner). University of Johannesburg (funding agency). Pretoria, South Africa. www.gnh.today.
Does life satisfaction affect your career? The results of a new study demonstrate it does. The study, published in Kyklos by GLO Fellow Kelsey J. O’Connor, finds more satisfied people are less likely to lose their jobs and if unemployed, more likely to become reemployed within a year. These benefits can be explained in part through noncognitive skills. For instance, more satisfied people are also more optimistic, conscientious, extraverted, and emotionally stable, factors that are, unsurprisingly, useful in the labor force.
You may have suspected that happy people perform better at
work. Indeed, happier people are healthier and earn higher incomes, based on observational
and experimental
evidence. Happiness also contributes positively to countries’ production.
These represent just a few of the findings. For more evidence, see the chapter dedicated
to the benefits of happiness in the United Nations World Happiness Report 2013.
O’Connor (2020) differs by demonstrating greater life satisfaction today reduces the likelihood of being unemployed a year from now. The reverse, that unemployment brings unhappiness, is well known, see in particular the study of GLO Fellows Winkelmann and Winkelmann (1998) with over 2000 Google Scholarcites. Analyses are based on the German Socio-Economic Panel and include separate dynamic and fixed-effects regressions, and two instrumental variable approaches. Regressions include a rich set of controls, especially relevant are unemployment history, and perceptions of both job security and reemployment opportunities.
The impact of life satisfaction on unemployment is not negligible.
Increasing life satisfaction from approximately a 7 to an 8 on a scale from 0
to 10, reduces the likelihood of unemployment by approximately five percent.
To be precise, the focus of O’Connor (2020) is self-reported
life satisfaction, which is distinct but closely related to happiness. See the OECD
Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-Being for further details.
For responses to recent criticisms of subjective well-being measures like
happiness and life satisfaction, see Kaiser and Vendrik or
Chen
et al. (2019).
As suggested, noncognitive skills help to explain how life satisfaction affects unemployment. O’Connor (2020) offers evidence that noncognitive skills and life satisfaction are positively correlated in fixed effects regressions with complete socio-economic controls. A significant portion of life satisfaction is derived from noncognitive skills, and there are now quite a few studies that show noncognitive skills are important for workplace outcomes. In formal economic theory, they represent capabilities that are important for different outcomes, just like physical ability or intelligence. Similarly, in other work authored by O’Connor and GLO Fellow Carol Graham, the authors demonstrate that optimistic people live longer, based on nearly 50 years of longitudinal data. Indeed, they find an optimistic belief structure is more important for life expectancy than income or cognitive ability.
Happiness is important. Philosophers throughout time and
around the world have stated it. Yet many policy makers are reluctant to invest
explicitly in happiness. The findings of O’Connor (2020) give them
another reason. Policies that target noncognitive skills and life satisfaction,
in schools for example, should not only improve life satisfaction, but also labor
market performance.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics shows thatpapal visits lead to increased church attendance and a decline in abortions that is greater when the Pope mentions abortion in his speeches.
Author Abstract: We investigate the impact of papal visits to Italian provinces on abortions from 1979 to 2012. Using administrative data, we find a 10–20% decrease in the number of abortions that commences in the 3rd month and persists until the 14th month after the visits. However, we find no significant change in the number of live births. A decline in unintended pregnancies best explains our results. Papal visits generate intense local media coverage, and likely make salient the Catholic Church’s stance against abortions. We show that papal visits lead to increased church attendance, and that the decline in abortions is greater when the Pope mentions abortion in his speeches.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33: 461–482. In China, social networks play an important role in risk sharing. The paper shows that the main channel through which siblings affect household investment is risk sharing.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33: 441-460.The paper shows that the optimality of authority (leadership) delegation for the sequential-action game played by rotten kids and a parent depends crucially on the degree of heterogeneity in the kids’ preferences. The findings contribute to the debate about the social desirability of the authoritative parenting style.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33: 413-440.The paper documents that children higher in the birth order are much more likely to be unwanted, and this is associated with negative life cycle outcomes.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33: 395–411. The paper provides a growth-theoretic analysis of the effects of intellectual property rights on the take-off of an economy from an era of stagnation to a state of sustained economic growth. Strengthening patent protection leads to an earlier take-off but also reduces economic growth in the long run.
Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley), Chandan Kumar Jha (Le Moyne College, Madden School of Business), and Sudipta Sarangi (Virginia Tech) will receive the 2020 Kuznets Prize for their article (please click title for FREE READ LINK)
which was published in the Journal of Population Economics (2019), 32(4), pp. 1101-1123. The annual prize honors the best article published in the Journal of Population Economics.
The award will be given to the authors during the ASSA 2020 meeting in San Diego, USA, at a reception on Friday, Jan. 3, 2020, 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM, at the Marriott Marquis San Diego, Coronado Room, hosted by the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) of Jinan University.
Biographical Abstracts
Gautam Hazarika is presently Associate Professor of Economics at
The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, the newest branch of the University
of Texas system. He completed his undergraduate education at the University of
Delhi’s St. Stephen’s College, and his Ph.D. at the University of Rochester. His
research has spanned labor and development economics. He is presently conducting
research in economic anthropology. Dr. Hazarika’s research has appeared in such
journals as American Journal of
Agricultural Economics, Review of
Income and Wealth, the Journal of
Development Studies, and, recently, the Journal
of Population Economics.
Chandan Kumar Jha is an Assistant Professor of
Finance at the Madden School of Business, Le Moyne College. He holds a Ph.D.
and an M.S. from Louisiana State University. His research interests lie in the
areas of economic growth and development, political economy, and finance and
development. His current research topics include corruption, gender inequality,
financial risk, and economic and financial reforms. He has published several
research articles in many reputed journals such as the Journal of Economic Behavior &
Organization, the Journal of Population Economics, International Review of
Finance, and Information
Economics and Policy.
Sudipta Sarangi is currently
Department Head and Professor of Economics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute
and State University. His research interests range from network theory to
development economics. He studies how gender differences affect economic
activity, as well as the origins of gender inequality. His work on networks
focuses on the strategic formation of social and economic networks and how
participation in multiple networks affects social outcomes. He is a research
associate of DIW Berlin, GATE, University of Lyon-St. Etienne and the Lima
School of Economics. He serves on the editorial boards of Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Public Economic Theory
and Studies in Microeconomics.
Hazarika
Jha
Sarangi
Abstract of the Winning Paper
“This paper examines the relationship between
ecological endowments in antiquity and contemporary female to male sex ratios
in the population. It is found that there are proportionately more missing
women in countries whose ancestral ecological endowments were poorer. This
relationship is shown to be strong even after ancestral plough use, the timing
of the Neolithic Transition, and many other potentially confounding factors are
controlled for. Similar results are also obtained using district-level data
from India.”
About the Kuznets Prize
The Journal of Population Economics awards the ‘Kuznets Prize’ for the best paper published in the Journal of Population Economicsin the previous year. Starting from 2014 the Prize has been awarded annually. Papers are judged by the Editors of the Journal.
Simon Kuznets, a pioneer in population economics, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University and the 1971 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, died on July 10, 1985. Professor Kuznets was born 1901 in Pinsk, Belarus, and came to the United States in 1922. He earned his Bachelor of Science in 1923, a Master of Arts degree in 1924 and his doctorate in 1926, all from Columbia University. During World War II he was Associate Director of the Bureau of Planning and Statistics on the War Production Board, and he served on the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1927 to 1960. Mr. Kuznets was a faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania for 24 years and Professor of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University from 1954 until he joined Harvard University in 1960. He retired in 1971 and was given the title of George F. Baker Professor Emeritus of Economics. He was a former president of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association.
Previous Winners
The Kuznets Prize (please click titles for READ LINKS FOR FREE) has previously been awarded to:
2016: Loren Brandt (University of Toronto), Aloysius Siow (University of Toronto), and Hui Wang (Peking University) for their article “Compensating for unequal parental investments in schooling,” Journal of Population Economics 28: 423-462.
Period 2010-2012: Richard W. Evans (Brigham Young University), Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University) and Zhong Zhao (Renmin University) for their article “The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births“, Journal of Population Economics 23: 1-36.
An article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicsreveals that former residents of the German Democratic Republic have a smaller present bias than former residents of the Federal Republic of Germany.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 349–387 GLO Discussion PaperNo. 306, 2019.
GLO FellowMarkus Pannenberg
Author Abstract: We use the separation and later reunification of Germany after World War II to show that a political regime shapes time preferences of its residents. Using two identification strategies, we find that former residents of the German Democratic Republic exhibit a significantly less pronounced present bias when compared with former residents of the Federal Republic of Germany, whereas measures of patience are statistically indistinguishable. Interpreting the years spent under the regime as a proxy for treatment intensity yields consistent results. Moreover, we present evidence showing that present bias predicts choices in the domains of health, finance, and education, thereby illustrating lasting repercussions of a regime’s influence on time preferences.
An article published in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicsfinds that assortative mating in education has become stronger in the United States, which has contributed to the observed rise in inequality.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 307–347
Author Abstract: In this paper, we describe mating patterns in the USA from 1964 to 2017 and measure the impact of changes in marital preferences on between-household income inequality. We rely on the recent literature on the econometrics of matching models to estimate complementarity parameters of the household production function. Our structural approach allows us to measure sorting along multiple dimensions and to effectively disentangle changes in marital preferences and in demographics, addressing concerns that affect results from existing literature. We answer the following questions: Has assortativeness increased over time? Along which dimensions? To what extent can the shifts in marital preferences explain inequality trends? We find that, after controlling for other observables, assortative mating in education has become stronger. Moreover, if mating patterns had not changed since 1971, the 2017 Gini coefficient between married households would be 6% lower. We conclude that about 25% of the increase in between-household inequality is due to changes in marital preferences. Increased assortativeness in education positively contributes to the rise in inequality, but only modestly.
Despite a measured strong cross-sectional relationship between income and health, a new article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicsfinds no necessary connection between changes in income inequality and changes in health inequality.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 197–231
GLO FellowHannes Schwandt
Author Abstract: We develop a method for comparing levels and trends in inequality in mortality in the United States and France between 1990 and 2010 in a similar framework. The comparison shows that while income inequality has increased in both the United States and France, inequality in mortality in France remained remarkably low and stable. In the United States, inequality in mortality increased for older groups (especially women) while it decreased for children and young adults. These patterns highlight the fact that despite the strong cross-sectional relationship between income and health, there is no necessary connection between changes in income inequality and changes in health inequality.
A new article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicssuggests that migrant social networks in host cities mitigate adverse mental health challenges of Chinese rural-urban migrant workers.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 155–195 GLO Discussion PaperNo. 370, 2019.
GLO FellowsXin Meng & Sen Xue
Author Abstract: Over the past two decades, more than 160 million Chinese rural workers have migrated to cities to work. They are separated from their familiar rural networks to work in an unfamiliar, and often hostile, environment. Many of them thus face significant mental health challenges. This paper is the first to investigate the extent to which migrant social networks in host cities can mitigate these adverse mental health effects. Using unique longitudinal survey data from Rural-to-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC), we find that network size matters significantly for migrant workers. Our preferred instrumental variable estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in migrant city networks, on average, reduces the measure of mental health problems by 0.47 to 0.66 of a standard deviation. Similar effects are found among the less educated, those working longer hours, and those without access to social insurance. The main channel of the network effect is through boosting migrants’ confidence and reducing their anxiety.
A new article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicssuggests that intergenerational altruism explains between 24 and 42% of the African American northward migration.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 115–154
GLO FellowJohn Gardner
Author Abstract: It is widely believed that many migrations are undertaken at least in part for the benefit of future generations. To provide evidence on the effect of intergenerational altruism on migration, I estimate a dynamic residential location choice model of the African American Great Migration in which individuals take the welfare of future generations into account when deciding to remain in the Southern USA or migrate to the North. I measure the influence of altruism on the migration decision as the implied difference between the migration probabilities of altruistic individuals and myopic ones who consider only current-generation utility when making their location decisions. My preferred estimates suggest that intergenerational altruism explains between 24 and 42% of the Northward migration that took place during the period that I study, depending on the generation.
A new article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economicssuggests that foreign aid may reduce asylum inflows from poor countries in the short run, but inflows from less poor economies show a positive but weak relation with aid. Aid is not an effective instrument to avoid migration flows.
Journal of Population Economics 33 (2020), 79–114 GLO Discussion PaperNo. 378, 2019.
GLO FellowMarina Murat
Author Abstract: This paper measures the links between aid from 14 rich to 113 developing economies and bilateral asylum applications during the years 1993 to 2013. Results show that asylum applications are related to aid in a U-shaped fashion with respect to the level of development of origin countries, although only the downward segment proves to be robust to all specifications. Asylum inflows from poor countries are significantly and negatively associated with aid in the short run, with mixed evidence of more lasting effects, while inflows from less poor economies show a positive but non-robust relationship to aid. Moreover, aid leads to negative cross-donor spillovers. Applications linearly decrease with humanitarian aid. Voluntary immigration is not related to aid. Overall, the reduction in asylum inflows is stronger when aid disbursements are conditional on economic, institutional and political improvements in the recipient economy.
Are new immigrants causing persistent voting effects? The lead article in the January 2020 issue of the Journal of Population Economics suggests that the voting effects are short-term only.
Read more in:
Read free the Lead Article of issue 1 (2020) of the Journal of Population Economics :
Author Abstract: In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the causal effect of immigrant presence on anti-immigrant votes is a short-run effect. For this purpose, we consider a distributed lag model and adapt the standard instrumental variable approach proposed by Altonji and Card (1991) to a dynamic framework. The evidence from our case study, votes for the UK Independent Party (Ukip) in recent European elections, supports our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find that this effect is robust to differences across areas in terms of population density and socioeconomic characteristics, and it is only partly explained by integration issues.
The paper studies the migrant-native differences in wealth among older households in Europe which is significant and to the advantage of the natives. The importance of origin country, age at migration, and citizenship status in reducing the gap is shown.
Author Abstract: This study uses a matching method to provide an estimate of the nativity wealth gap among older households in Europe. This approach does not require imposing any functional form on wealth and avoids validity-out-of-the-support assumptions; furthermore, it allows estimation not only of the mean of the wealth gap but also of its distribution for the common-support sub-population. The results show that on average there is a positive and significant wealth gap between natives and migrants. However, the average gap may be misleading as the distribution of the gap reveals that immigrant households in the upper part of the wealth distribution are better off, and those in the lower part of the wealth distribution are worse off, than comparable native households. A heterogeneity analysis shows the importance of origin, age at migration, and citizenship status in reducing the gap. Indeed, households who migrated within Europe, those who moved at younger ages rather than as adults, and those who are citizens of the destination country display a wealth gap that is consistently smaller over the entire distribution.
The article finds thatparents compensate disadvantaged children with greater cognitive resources using data fromprimary school-aged Ethiopian siblings.
Author Abstract: A small but increasing body of literature finds that parents invest in their children unequally. However, the evidence is contradictory, and providing convincing causal evidence of the effect of child ability on parental investment in a low-income context is challenging. This paper examines how parents respond to the differing abilities of primary school-aged Ethiopian siblings, using rainfall shocks during the critical developmental period between pregnancy and the first 3 years of a child’s life to isolate exogenous variations in child ability within the household, observed at a later stage than birth. The results show that on average parents attempt to compensate dis-advantaged children through increased cognitive investment. The effect is significant,but small in magnitude: parents provide about 3.9% of a standard deviation more in educational fees to the lower-ability child in the observed pair. We provide suggestive evidence that families with educated mothers, smaller household size and higher wealth compensate with greater cognitive resources for a lower-ability child.
Gender pay gaps are still of much concern, in particular in the United States. A paper published in the Journal of Population Economics adds to our understanding how the gender gap is shaped by multiple different forces such as parenthood, gender segregation, part-time work and unionization.
GLO Fellows Francesco Pastore & Allan Webster The paper is also GLO Discussion Paper No. 363, 2019.
Author Abstract: This study examines the gender wage gap in the USA using two separate cross-sections from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The extensive literature on this subject includes wage decompositions that divide the gender wage gap into “explained” and “unexplained” components. One of the problems with this approach is the heterogeneity of the sample data. In order to address the difficulties of comparing like with like, this study uses a number of different matching techniques to obtain estimates of the gap. By controlling for a wide range of other influences, in effect, we estimate the direct effect of simply being female on wages. However, a number of other factors, such as parenthood, gender segregation, part-time working, and unionization, contribute to the gender wage gap. This means that it is not just the core “like for like” comparison between male and female wages that matters but also how gender wage differences interact with other influences. The literature has noted the existence of these interactions, but precise or systematic estimates of such effects remain scarce. The most innovative contribution of this study is to do that. Our findings imply that the idea of a single uniform gender pay gap is perhaps less useful than an understanding of how gender wages are shaped by multiple different forces.
