A new GLO Discussion Paper studiesthe role of the population sex ratio, the ratio of men to women, in global sodomy law reform in the post-WWII era. A high sex ratio makes sodomy law less likely to be repealed.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper studies the role of population sex ratio, i.e. ratio of men to women, in the global wave of sodomy law reform in the post-WWII era. Using a global survey, this paper first finds that men are more homophobic than women and such pattern has persisted across countries and time. With a newly constructed panel data of 183 countries, this paper then finds that high sex ratio causally makes sodomy law less likely to be repealed. The result is robust to numerous checks, including using temperature as an instrumental variable for sex ratio.
In GLO Discussion Paper No. 450, GLO FellowsStepan Jurajda and Dejan Kovač have recently provided research evidence revealing that given first names of leaders from World War II can predict behavior in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and beyond in society including voting. It provides hard evidence for intergenerational transmission of nationalism. This research work has found already much interest in the scientific community and beyond. It was reviewed by anonymous referees of the Journal of Population Economics and finally accepted for a forthcoming publication in a 2020 journal issue. Below, the authors are interviewed about the background and context of this research.
Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and Behavior in a War, GLO Discussion Paper 450, 2020. Forthcoming Journal of Population Economics.
Interview
GLO: Scientists across various disciplines have found in recent studies that names of individuals reflect important information about norms, preferences and behavior. What is your innovative approach?
Stepan Jurajda: Our analysis implies that having a ‘nationalist’ first name, one that is synonymous with previous war leader(s), predicts costly patriotic behavior in a current war, presumably due to values transmitted from parents. In our analysis, name choices thus act as an indirect proxy for a strong form of nationalism — the willingness to fight and die in a war for national independence.
Dejan Kovač: Such values are in principle difficult to elicit in surveys, which, together with the war context, sets our analysis apart from other research based on names.
GLO: Other researchers show that history, culture and personal experiences long time ago have a strong impact on current behavior. How does this contribute to our understanding of challenging issues of our time?
Dejan Kovač: Our study of the active engagement in the delivery of an extremely costly public good suggests that the living memory of a previous war allows nations to deal with the collective action problem of participation in a current war.
Stepan Jurajda: We also provide evidence on the nature of inter-generational transmission of political values, an issue that is receiving more and more attention in recent research.
GLO: How did you come to this topic of research, names and behavior in a war?
Dejan Kovač: We were aware of previous research on how names affect individual outcomes on the labor market and in many other settings, and we were wondering whether this strategy can help us understand the massive volunteering for the 1991-1995 Croatian War of Independence. After realizing that indeed it can, we also studied how the values we approximate using name choices relate to current political values in the country.
GLO: What can the world learn from your study?
Stepan Jurajda: Our measurement approach for values that are difficult to elicit in surveys and for values that affected historical events is applicable in other countries that feature a sharply divided ethnic mix and in settings where leaders’ names are notoriously associated with their political beliefs. Given the widespread availability of birth certificate records, the approach is available in many historical settings and it naturally lends itself to the study of inter-generational transmission of values within families, which can help us understand why the effects that wars have on political values and on in-group cooperative behavior are so long-lived.
GLO: Dejan, the paper raised a lot of controversy during your recent campaign for President, why?
Dejan Kovač: Unfortunately, in Croatia we have not yet dealt with many important historical debates and there is still a great division today in the society related to the WWII Croatian history. In fact, one of the reasons of my candidacy was to promote not only civic freedoms, but also scientific freedoms to explore “untested” hypotheses. I would say the paper was used to misinform the general public in order to discredit my political candidacy. The paper does not claim that the values related to the names we study are the same as the values of the WWII leadership of Croatia; we simply have a proxy for nationalistic/patriotic values as of 1991-1995 that allows us to study several important questions. The attacks did not relate to the methodology and made little scientific sense; they were purely political and came from individuals who are politically active, either on the far right or the far left part of the political spectrum. Since some of my other research is on political networks and corruption, I guess I should not be surprised to be attacked through misrepresentation of my work. My agenda is purely scientific and I am a firm believer in a well functioning democracy, where we have institutions, which battle corruption. That being said – the research as well as my political activism mission goes on! (Note: See also the recent GLO interview with Dejan Kovač about his Presidential Race in Croatia.)
*** With Stepan Jurajda & Dejan Kovač spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
About the authors
Stepan Jurajda: CERGE-EI; Professor at Charles University Prague and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Dejan Kovač: Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs and Economics Department at Princeton University.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that air pollution accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of mental disorders in China.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study aims to fill the gap in our understanding about exposure to particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and attributable risks and economic costs of mental disorders (MDs). We identify the relationship between PM2.5 and risk of hospital admissions (HAs) for MDs in Beijing and measure the attributable risk and economic cost. We apply a generalized additive model (GAM) with controls for time trend, meteorological conditions, holidays and day of the week. Stratified analyses are performed by age, gender and season. We further estimate health and economic burden of HAs for MDs attributable to PM2.5. A total of 17,252 HAs for MDs are collected. We show that PM2.5 accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of MDs. Specifically, a 10 μg/m3 daily increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 3.55% increase in the risk of HAs for MDs, and the effect is more pronounced for older males in colder weather. According to the WHO’s air quality guidelines, 15.12 percent of HAs and 16.19 percent of related medical expenses for MDs are respectively attributable to PM2.5.
Interested researchers are cordially invited to submit their abstracts or papers for presentation consideration. The 32. EBES Conference – Istanbul will take place on July 1-3, 2020 hosted by the Kadir Has University, Istanbul/Turkey, with the support of the Istanbul Economic Research Association.
This is aGLO supported conference.EBESis theEurasia Business and Economics Society, a strategic partner and institutional supporter of GLO. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES.
Invited Speakers
Dr. Asli Demirguc-Kunt is the Chief Economist of Europe and Central Asia Region of the World
Bank. Over her 30-year career in the World Bank, she has also served as the Director
of Research, Director of Development Policy, and the Chief Economist of the
Finance and Private Sector Development Network, conducting research and
advising on financial and private sector development issues. She has published
articles in many of the leading economics and finance journals such as Journal
of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, The Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Banking and
Finance, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Journal of Economic Perspectives etc. and is among the most-cited researchers
in the world (Google Scholar = 76K). Her research has focused on the links
between financial development, firm performance, and economic development. Banking
and financial crises, financial regulation, access to financial services and
inclusion, as well as SME finance and entrepreneurship are among her areas of
research. She has also created the Global Financial Development Report series
and the Global Findex financial inclusion database. She was the President of
the International Atlantic Economic Society (2013-14) and Director of the
Western Economic Association (2015-18) and serves on the editorial boards of
professional journals. Prior to her position in the World Bank, she was an
Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She holds a Ph.D. and M.A.
in economics from Ohio State University.
Klaus
F. Zimmermann is President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO);
Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT; Full Professor of Economics at Bonn University
(em.); Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Free University of Berlin and
Renmin University of China; Member, German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina,
Regional Science Academy, and Academia Europaea (Chair of its Section for
Economics, Business and Management Sciences). Among others, he has worked at
Macquarie University, the Universities of Melbourne, Princeton, Harvard,
Munich, Kyoto, Mannheim, Dartmouth College and the University of Pennsylvania.
Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and Fellow of
the European Economic Association (EEA). Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of
Population Economics. Editorial Board of International Journal of Manpower,
Research in Labor Economics and Comparative Economic Studies, among others.
Founding Director, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Past-President,
German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). Distinguished John G. Diefenbaker
Award 1998 of the Canada Council for the Arts; Outstanding Contribution Award
2013 of the European Investment Bank. Rockefeller Foundation Policy Fellow
2017; Eminent Research Scholar Award 2017, Australia; EBES Fellow Award 2018.
He has published in many top journals including Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of the European Economic
Association, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Applied Econometrics,
Public Choice, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Population
Economics and Journal of Public Economics. His research fields are population,
labor, development, and migration.
Marco
Vivarelli is a full professor at the Catholic University of
Milano, where he is also Director of the Institute of Economic Policy. He is
Professorial Fellow at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht; Research Fellow at IZA, Bonn;
Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). He is member of the Scientific
Executive Board of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES); member of
the Scientific Advisory Board of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research
(WIFO, Vienna) and has been scientific consultant for the International Labour
Office (ILO), World Bank (WB), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the European Commission.
He is Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Business Review, Editor of Small Business
Economics, Associate Editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, Associate
Editor of Economics E-Journal, member of the Editorial Board of Sustainability
and he has served as a referee for more than 70 international journals. He is
author/editor of various books and his papers have been published in journals
such as Cambridge Journal of Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics,
Economics Letters, Industrial and Corporate Change, International Journal of
Industrial Organization, Journal of Economics, Journal of Evolutionary
Economics, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Labour Economics, Oxford Bulletin
of Economics and Statistics, Regional Studies, Research Policy, Small Business
Economics, Southern Economic Journal, World Bank Research Observer, and World
Development. His current research interests include the relationship between
innovation, employment, and skills; the labor market and income distribution
impacts of globalization; the entry and post-entry performance of newborn
firms.
Dorothea
Schäfer is the Research Director of Financial Markets at the
German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and Adjunct Professor of
Jönköping International Business School, Jönköping University. She has also
worked as an evaluator for the European Commission, the Federal Ministry of
Education and Research and Chairwoman of Evaluation Committee for LOEWE
(Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz des
Bundeslandes Hessen). She managed various research projects supported by the
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), the EU Commission, the Fritz Thyssen
Foundation and the Stiftung Geld und Währung. Her researches were published in
various journals such as Journal of Financial Stability; German Economic
Review; International Journal of Money and Finance; Small Business Economics;
and Economic Modelling. She is regularly invited as an expert in parliamentary
committees, including the Finance Committee of the Bundestag and gives lectures
on financial market issues in Germany and abroad. She is also a member of the
Editorial Board and Editor-in-Chief of the policy-oriented journal
“Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung” (Quarterly Journal for
Economic Research) and Editor-in-Chief of Eurasian Economic Review. Her
research topics include financial crisis, financial market regulation,
financing constraints, gender, and financial markets, financial transaction
tax.
Board Prof. Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, The Netherlands, & GLO. Prof. Jonathan Batten, University Utara Malaysia, Malaysia & GLO Prof. Iftekhar Hasan, Fordham University, U.S.A. Prof. Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Prof. John Rust, Georgetown University, U.S.A., & GLO Prof. Dorothea Schäfer, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Germany, and GLO Prof. Marco Vivarelli, Università Cattolica Del Sacro Cuore, Italy, & GLO
Abstract/Paper Submission
Authors are invited to submit their abstracts or papers no later than April 12, 2020.
Qualified papers can be published in EBES journals
(Eurasian Business Review and Eurasian Economic Review) or EBES Proceedings
books after a peer-review process without any submission or publication fees.
In this regard, qualified papers from the 32nd EBES Conference will be
published in the special issues of EABR and EAER. However, if there are not
enough qualified papers submitted for the special issues, there will be no
special issues and qualified papers will be published in the regular issues of
the journals.
EBES journals (EABR and EAER) are published by
Springer and both are indexed in the SCOPUS, EBSCO EconLit with Full Text,
Google Scholar, ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide, CNKI, EBSCO Business
Source, EBSCO Discovery Service, EBSCO TOC Premier, International Bibliography
of the Social Sciences (IBSS), OCLC WorldCat Discovery Service, ProQuest
ABI/INFORM, ProQuest Business Premium Collection, ProQuest Central, ProQuest
Turkey Database, ProQuest-ExLibris Primo, ProQuest-ExLibris Summon, Research
Papers in Economics (RePEc), Cabell’s Directory, and Ulrich’s Periodicals
Directory. In addition, while EAER is indexed in the Emerging Sources Citation
Index (Clarivate Analytics), EABR is indexed in the Social Science Citation
Index (SSCI) and Current Contents / Social & Behavioral Sciences.
Also, all accepted abstracts will be published
electronically in the Conference Program and the Abstract Book (with an ISBN
number). It will be distributed to all conference participants at the
conference via USB. Although submitting full papers are not required, all the
submitted full papers will also be included in the conference proceedings in a
USB. After the conference, participants will also have the opportunity to send
their paper to be published (after a refereeing process managed by EBES) in the
Springer’s series Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics (no submission and
publication fees).
This will also be sent to Clarivate Analytics in order
to be reviewed for coverage in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index –
Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Please note that the 10th, 11th,
12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th (Vol. 2), and 24th EBES
Conference Proceedings are accepted for inclusion in the Conference Proceedings
Citation Index – Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Other conference
proceedings are in progress.
Important Dates
Abstract Submission Start Date: January 15, 2020 Abstract Submission Deadline: April 12, 2020 Reply-by: April 17 , 2020* Registration Deadline: May 29, 2020 Announcement of the Program: March 17, 2020 Paper Submission Deadline (Optional): June 4, 2020** Paper Submission for the EBES journals: September 15, 2020
* The decision regarding the acceptance/rejection of each abstract/paper will be communicated with the corresponding author within a week of submission. ** Completed paper submission is optional. If you want to be considered for the Best Paper Award or your full paper to be included in the conference proceedings in the USB, after submitting your abstract before April 12, 2020, you must also submit your completed (full) paper by May 29, 2020.
Contact Ugur Can, Director of EBES (ebes@ebesweb.org); EBES & GLO Dr. Ender Demir, Conferene Coordinator of EBES (demir@ebesweb.org); EBES & GLO
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on teenage fertility of Roma women in Hungary. Schooling decreases fertility, but not in summer and Christmas breaks suggesting incapacitation and not the education channel is dominant.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4-26.0% and delayed motherhood by two years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions and still births, and contains information on the time of conception precise to the week. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The types of workers recruited into teaching and their allocation across classrooms can greatly influence a country’s stock of human capital. This paper considers how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries. Schools are a major source of employment in developing countries, particularly for women and professionals. Teacher compensation is also a large share of public budgets. Teacher labor markets in developing countries are likely to grow further as teacher quality becomes a greater focus of education policy, including under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Theoretical approaches to teacher labor markets have emphasized the role of non-market institutions, such as government and unions, and other frictions in teacher employment and wages. The evidence supports the existence and importance of such frictions in how teacher labor markets function. In many countries, large gaps in pay and quality exist between teachers and other professionals; teachers in public and private schools; teachers on permanent and temporary contracts; and teachers in urban and rural areas. Teacher supply increases with wages, though teacher quality does not necessarily increase. However, most evidence comes from studies of short-term effects among existing teachers. Evidence on effects in the long-term, on the supply of new teachers, or on changes in non-pecuniary compensation is scarcer.
A new GLO Discussion Paper findswellbeing gender gaps in South Africa are explained mainly by gender differences in endowments.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates whether there is co-movement in subjective wellbeing (swb) gender gaps and objective wellbeing (owb) gender gaps over time and whether swb gender gaps are caused by gender differences in endowments or by the different ways men and women value the pre-mentioned. This is important, as global goals and national policy focus on the improvement of owb gender equality, ignoring the importance of swb gender equality. We use the NIDS dataset, comparing 2008 and 2017 data, and employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method in the analysis. We find i) the trends in owband swb gender gaps are unrelated and ii) the swb gender gaps are explained mainly by gender differences in endowments, but in 2017, due to women’s “optimism”, notwithstanding their lower levels of endowments, the swb between genders was equalised. These results indicate the need for a swb gender equality policy.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Fabio Montobbio, Maria Enrica Virgillito & Marco Vivarelli
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of explicit labour-saving heuristics within robotic patents. It analyses innovative actors engaged in robotic technology and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies the technological fields particularly exposed to labour-saving innovations. It exploits advanced natural language processing and probabilistic topic modelling techniques on the universe of patent applications at the USPTO between 2009 and 2018, matched with ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) firm-level dataset. The results show that labour-saving patent holders comprise not only robots producers, but also adopters. Consequently, labour-saving robotic patents appear along the entire supply chain. The paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).
Youth Transitions to the labor market and society: A Global Interdisciplinary Policy Research Conference discussed the challenges in Geneva/Switzerland on February 20-21, 2020 under the leadership of GLO Policy Director Azita Berar. A number of GLO Fellows were participating, including Mohamed Ali Marouani, Ruttiya Bhulaor, Francesco Pastore and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann.
The initiative correspondence to the GLO Research Cluster on School-to-Work-Transitionslead by Francesco Pastore, which had recently organized and published two 2019 special issues in the International Journal of Manpower (details).
GLO was supporting the Global Interdisciplinary Policy Research Conference on Youth Transitions, which was organized at the Center for Finance and Development of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. The event brought together researchers from academia across disciplines with policy practitioners across public and private stakeholders, to review the state of policy research and debate on youth transitions.
Multiple dimensions of youth transitions were discussed: the crises in school to work transition and future of work prospects for young people; youth transitions in situations of conflict and peace-building; and youth participation in civic and political spheres. Detailed program of the event.
The Conference also launched the Global Network of Policy Research on Youth Transitions that will promote and partner for expanded policy and research interface on priority issues. For partnerships and contributions to the debate and to the Global Network, please contact GLO Policy Director Azita Berar.
Some selective pictures from the first conference day below.
Azita Berar
Francesco Pastore
Sukti Dasgupta (ILO), Paula Herrera-Idarraga (Columbia), Diego Sanchez Ancochea (Oxford University) & Francesco Pastore (GLO)
Emma Murphy (Durham University), Anamitra Roychowdhury (India), Robert MacDonald (UK) & Ruttiya Bhulaor (Thailand & GLO)
Anthony Mann (OECD), Mohamed Ali Marouani (IRD & GLO), Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO), Irina Burak (Moscow) & Dominic Richardson (UNICEF INNOCENTI)
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for the USA thatethnic attrition biases conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The literature on immigrant assimilation and intergenerational progress has sometimes reached surprising conclusions, such as the puzzle of immigrant advantage which finds that Hispanic immigrants sometimes have better health than U.S.-born Hispanics. While numerous studies have attempted to explain these patterns, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic selfidentification to identify immigrants’ descendants. This can lead to bias due to “ethnic attrition,” which occurs whenever a U.S.-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. In this paper, we exploit information on parents’ and grandparents’ place of birth to show that Mexican ethnic attrition, operating through intermarriage, is sizable and selective on health, making subsequent generations of Mexican immigrants appear less healthy than they actually are. Consequently, conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants have been significantly overstated.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that an oil price boom may trigger dissatisfaction with one’s income, and that this dissatisfaction is independent of the effect of the boom on real economic conditions. Using data from Kazakhstan, it seems that the oil price boom creates a gap between people’s expectations of the benefits from the boom and the observed economic conditions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We document that an oil price boom triggers dissatisfaction with one’s income, and that this dissatisfaction is independent of the effect of the boom on real economic conditions. Unique data from Kazakhstan allows us to exploit time, sectoral and spatial variation to identify the impact of the recent oil boom on reported satisfaction with income. Oil related households { whose heads are employed in the private sector of the oil rich districts { report a decrease in satisfaction with their income during the boom compared to other households (whose heads work in other sectors and/or districts). The estimated drop in satisfaction is statistically and economically significant: a 20% increase in the price of oil decreases satisfaction with income by 1/3 of a standard deviation. We discuss different interpretations of this drop in satisfaction. The only interpretation consistent with our results is that an oil price boom creates a gap between people’s expectations of the benefits from the boom and the observed economic conditions. Our results call for devoting more attention to the dynamic of satisfaction, not only during resource busts, but also during resource booms.
The Association of African Young Economists (AAYE), established in 2013, is a public not-for-profit organization. It aims to facilitate scientific collaboration to generate and disseminate knowledge for the development of the African continent.
A new GLO Discussion Paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty using alternative objective functions and stochastic dominance analysis based on coverage curves. It finds that the choice of an optimal model largely depends on the distribution of incomes and the poverty line. Comparing the performance of different econometric and machine learning models is therefore an important step in the process of optimizing poverty predictions and targeting ratios.
Do gender-based board quotas lead to a higher share of women in top management positions? A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds supporting evidence that affirmative action has induced sizable increases in South Africa.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Gender-based board quotas do not always lead to higher share of women in top management positions. We study the consequences of an affirmative action policy that stipulates gender- and race-based targets in top management positions, beyond boards. We focus on the representation of intersectional group identities, such as race and gender, at the top. We find sizable increase in the likelihood of Black women employment in top positions in the post-policy period relative to Black men, White women and White men in South Africa. We extend our analysis and estimate policy spillovers for years of schooling, earnings gaps and self-employment.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the effects of product, process, and organizational innovations on firm labor productivity in Pakistan.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine the determinants of product, process, and organizational innovation, and their impact on firm labor productivity using data from a unique innovation survey of firms in Pakistan. We find significant heterogeneity in the impact of different innovations on labor productivity: Organizational innovation has the largest effect followed by process innovation. But unlike much of the literature, we found a negative impact of product innovation suggesting a disruption effect of new products; however, this is mitigated if new products are paired with process or organizational innovations. We find a strong impact of engaging in knowledge creation on product and process innovation. We found that external knowledge networks and innovation cooperation play no significant role in firms’ decision to perform R&D and its intensity, though vertical linkages with suppliers (clients) promote product (process) innovations. Foreign competition has a negative effect on product innovation and a positive effect on organizational innovation.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Italian data that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this article, we investigate the role of several types of educational mismatch in explaining labour market transitions of workers with secondary and higher education. We focus on transitions from employment to unemployment and on job changes, to assess whether mismatch is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. In the first case, as suggested by matching models, mismatch will be eliminated through job-to-job transitions. In the second case, it might be permanent and caused by employment discontinuity and deskilling processes. By using information from the Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) and the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (PLUS), we calculate three measures of vertical mismatch. This allows comparing the outcomes from self-reported and revealed match measures in order to assess the robustness of the results. In addition, we use a measure of horizontal mismatch and evaluated the effect of Routine Bias Technical change (RBTC) in terms of unemployment risk, through a Routine Task Index (RTI) calculated on Italian data. Results indicate that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment. More specifically, among workers with higher education, the risk is due to mismatches in the field of studies whereas for secondary educated workers, over-education is the main cause of unemployment risk. The effect of the RTI is often not significant. This adds evidence to the problem of skill gap in Italy, as educational choices are not aligned to market needs. In this respect, both demand side and supply side policies are needed to allow firms to better use this human capital.
Professor Niaz Asadullah gave a talk at the Department of Economics of East West University in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on “Labor Economics for Southeast Asia“. He is the Lead of the GLO Southeast Asia Cluster. The session was moderated by Assistant Professor Dr. Iftekharul Huq. The session is part of GLO supported activities in the region to promote the study and practice of labor economics. Topics discussed included the low participation of women in Southeast Asian labor markets, the linkages between labor and marriage market, the dynamics of wage returns to education and the risk of job automation and technological unemployment. A large number of students attended the event and actively took part in the Q&A session.
The World Bank and HSE University welcome applications for the upcoming Annual International Summer School“Education and Development”, July 6–10, 2020, in Moscow. The topic for 2020 is “Exploring innovative ways to tackle poverty and inequity through education”. GLO Fellow Harry Patrinos, Practice Manager at the World Bank, is one of the invited speakers.
The Call of World Bank and HSE University
Annual International Summer School“Education and Development”, July 6–10, 2020, in Moscow, Russia. The topic for 2020:
“Exploring innovative ways to tackle poverty and inequity through education”
We encourage applications from students and early-career researchers from Russia, the CIS, Eastern Europe, Asia and other regions, who pursue various perspectives in the Economics, and Economic Sociology of Education, as well as Education Policy, and seek to understand how to contribute to social and economic development through education.
The main goal of Summer School, organized jointly by the World Bank and HSE Institute of Education, is to increase the knowledge
and skills of students and early-career researchers from various parts of the world
about the most urgent issues in education research and practice. The
Summer School will demonstrate recent advances in research and policy
expertise concerning the possible
role of education in dealing with major issues of global and national
socio-economic development such as economic stagnation, poverty,
inequity, increasing social tensions, etc.
During the Summer School, students and young researchers will also have the opportunity to discuss their individual research and
applied projects with leading experts in the field and during special sessions of group work.
The School Agenda will focus on:
The core challenges for education policy in the 21st century
Innovative tools in responding to challenges of social and economic development through education
New trends in the labor market and the key challenges for the education system
How to design, conduct and present research and applied research projects
The Summer School includes the following major
types of activities:
Keynote speeches by leading experts followed by discussion
Presentations by participants of their work followed by discussion
Group work, including brainstorming on various issues connected with research and practice in the areas related to participants’
projects
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the child tax credit reform in Austria reduces inequality, lowers the poverty rate in general, but by definition only for households with children.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2019, not only on micro, but also on macro level by using a dynamic scoring methodology. First, we assess the fiscal and distributional impact of this reform using the microsimulation model EUROMOD. Second, we estimate labour supply impacts of the reform based on a structural discrete choice framework. Third, we evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of the reform, by calibrating and shocking QUEST, the DSGE model of the European Commission, with the micro-based results for the implicit tax rate, the non-participation and the labour supply elasticities. We show that the child tax credit reform in Austria reduces inequality, lowers the poverty rate in general, but by definition only for households with children. Overall the reform has a positive impact on labour supply, both on the extensive and on the intensive margin, especially for women. On the macro-level (and in the long-run), our model suggests a positive impact on employment. Additionally, we find that parts of the tax decrease can be potentially captured by the employer, meaning that gross wages would fall slightly. However, we find small but positive effects on GDP, investment and consumption, although the long-run macroeconomic effects depend crucially on how the government compensates the missing tax revenues after the reform. Accounting for these feedback effects at the micro level with a new methodology, we show that the second round effects are important to take into account, because they provide insights into the medium-term distributional impact of the reform.
The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of January shows that promoting access to credit and improving the property rights framework are vital for removing barriers to productive female entrepreneurship at a larger scale in countries such as Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe. The paper makes a significant contribution to policy debates, suggesting that policy interventions aimed at removing obstacles to female land tenure and ownership could greatly benefit Southern African countries.
Author Abstract:Limited access to finance is one of the major barriers for women entrepreneurs in Africa. This
paper presents a model of start-ups in which firms’ sales and profits depend on their productivity
and access to credit. However, due to the lack of collateral assets such as land, female
entrepreneurs have more constrained access to credit than do men. Testing the model on data
from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, we find land
ownership to be important for female entrepreneurial performance in terms of sales levels. This
finding suggests that the small Southern African economies would benefit from removing
obstacles to women’s land tenure and enabling financial institutions to lend against movable
collateral. While land ownership is linked with higher sales levels, it seems less critical for sales
growth and innovation where access to short term loans for working capital seems to be key.
GLO DP Team Senior
Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F.
Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that retirement increases the probability of migration strongly.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine whether and how retirement affects migration decisions in China. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design approach combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 adults aged between 40 and 75, we find that retirement increases the probability of migration by 12.9 percentage points. Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to inter-temporal substitution (delayed migration). Retirement-induced migrants are lower-educated and have restricted access to social security. Household-level migration decisions can reconcile different migration responses across gender. Retirees migrate for risk sharing and family protection mechnisms, reducing market production of their families in the receiving households.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the long-run growth effects of rising longevity and an increasing retirement age.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We assess the long-run growth effects of rising longevity and increasing the retirement age when growth is driven by purposeful research and development. In contrast to economies in which growth depends on learning-by-doing spillovers, raising the retirement age fosters economic growth. How economic growth changes in response to rising life expectancy depends on the retirement response. Employing numerical analysis we find that the requirement for experiencing a growth stimulus from rising longevity is fulfilled for the United States, nearly met for the average OECD economy, but missed by the EU and by Japan.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that the impact of exports on economic growth has been small but positive in 1850-2017 Spain.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyse in this paper the relationship between international trade and economic growth from the point of view of one of the most traditional hypotheses within this field, namely, the export-led growth hypothesis, for the case of Spain in a long-term perspective of almost 170 years. Exports seem to have played a positive, though modest, role in promoting economic growth in the Spanish economy over the whole period, mostly due to the higher productivity associated with the export sector. The contribution of exports to growth, however, seems to have been stronger in the final years of the 19th century, unlike the rest of the period, where it proved to be very small.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals and investigates the channels of international migration from thePhilippines caused byweather shocks.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The growing literature on environmental migration presents conflicting results. While some find that natural disasters induce international migration, others discover a dampening effect. We aim to reconcile these differences by using a comprehensive list of weather shocks from the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. We constructed a longitudinal provincial dataset (2005–2015) from an assemblage of administrative and survey datasets and tested linear, quadratic, and lagged models. Our fixed-effects results are consistent with both strands in the literature with caveats. First, Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warning signal but are more likely to stay with a more damaging storm warning signal. Second, differential effects of weather shocks on international migration contingent on agriculture exists. Third, non-environmental factors such as economic (unemployment rate) and infrastructure (number of high schools) also push Filipinos abroad.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the effectiveness of a government program to strengthen the public supply of early childhood educational services in Italy.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In 2007 the Italian central government started a program by transferring funds to regional governments to develop both private and public early childcare services. Exploiting the different timing of program implementation across regions, we evaluate its effectiveness in boosting the public supply of early childhood educational services. We find that the ratio between the available slots in public early childhood education and the population of those aged 0-2 increased by 17.2% three years after the start of the program, with respect to the pre-program level. The program impact was however limited in the South and mostly driven by the Center-North.
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the effects of dismissals of local governments in Italy suspected of Mafia infiltration.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Local governments suspected of Mafia infiltration can be dismissed in Italy through an administrative act not increasing formal deterrence but potentially signaling improved law enforcement among local communities. This paper finds that dismissals are associated to a persistent fall of petty crimes (e.g. thefts) but have no consequences on offenses more closely related to the activity of organized crime, as homicide, extortion, drug-trafficking or usury. Petty crimes are estimated to fall by around 10%, on average, a result that seems driven by the perception of enhanced deterrence (through media pressure, the signaling role of the policy, and other forms of social control) rather than induced by organized crime itself.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals thatland ownership is important for female entrepreneurial performance in Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Limited access to finance is one of the major barriers for women entrepreneurs in Africa. This paper presents a model of start-ups in which firms’ sales and profits depend on their productivity and access to credit. However, due to the lack of collateral assets such as land, female entrepreneurs have more constrained access to credit than do men. Testing the model on data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, we find land ownership to be important for female entrepreneurial performance in terms of sales levels. This finding suggests that the small Southern African economies would benefit from removing obstacles to women’s land tenure and enabling financial institutions to lend against movable collateral. While land ownership is linked with higher sales levels, it seems less critical for sales growth and innovation where access to short term loans for working capital seems to be key.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals thatthe provision of extension services increases agricultural technology take-up in Uganda.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Why adoption rate of potentially profitable agricultural technologies in Africa remains low is still puzzling. This paper uses a randomized control trial to study Ugandan subsistence smallholders’ decisions to adopt cash crops. A unique way of eliciting farmers price and yield expectations allows us to investigate the role of farmers’ ex-ante beliefs about crop profitability on adoption decisions. We find that the provision of extension services increases oilseeds adoption by 15%, and farmers who under-estimate oilseeds price at baseline are the most likely to adopt the new crops. The results suggest that changes in expectations drive agricultural technology take-up.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals thatyounger and older workers in Egypt were less likely to be employed than their middle age peers after the reforms in the 1990s than before. Those seeking formal jobs were more likely to remain unemployed or inactive.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper aims to study the evolution in the age composition of males’ employment in the aftermath of the public sector downsizing in the 1990s -during the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Policies – and the new labor law in 2003. This answers the question of whether young (15-29) and older (50-59) male workers were the most likely to bear the brunt of the 1990s reforms and the new labor law in 2003. Employment, formality and hours-of-work are simultaneously estimated by maximum likelihood to control for the self-selection, using three repeated cross sectional samples from Egyptian Datasets conducted in 1988, 1998 and 2006. Results show that men aged (15-29) and those aged (50-59) were less likely, as compared to their peers in middle age (30-49), to be employed in 1998 than in 1988 (before the first reform). While informality has affected all age groups, the 30 to 49 years old were the category that experienced the most rapid increase in informality as compared to the other two age groups. Findings also show evidence of negative correlation between the probability of employment and the probability of having a formal job, indicating that those who have more incidence to work in formal jobs are more likely to remain unemployed or inactive.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that poor health conditions in childhood and unfavorable childhood and adolescent socioeconomic status as measured by educational attainment and neighborhood quality may increase the risk of late-life frailty among Chinese older adults .
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Exposures in childhood and adolescence may impact the development of diseases and symptoms in late life. However, evidence from low- and middle- income countries is scarce. In this study, we examined the association of early life risk factors with frailty among older adults using a large, nationally representative cohort of community-dwelling Chinese sample. 6,806 participants aged ≥60 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were included. We measured 13 risk factors in childhood or adolescence through self-reports, encompassing six dimensions (education, family economic status, nutritional status, domestic violence, neighborhood, and health). We used multinomial regression models to examine the association between risk factors and frailty and further calculated the absolute risk difference for the statistically significant factors. Results show that worse health condition in childhood and unfavorable childhood and adolescent socioeconomic status as measured by educational attainment and neighborhood quality may increase the risk of late-life frailty among Chinese older adults. Severe starvation in childhood was associated with higher risk of prefrailty. The risk differences of being frail were 5.7% lower for persons with a high school or above education, 1.5% lower for those whose fathers were literate, 4.8% lower for the highest neighborhood quality, and 2.9% higher for worse childhood health status compared to their counterparts.
A new GLO Discussion Paperrevealsthat receiving a pension only slightly reduces collective recreational activities while significantly crowding out altruistic activities in the Chinese communities.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Grants and services provided by the government may crowd out informal arrangements, thus weakening informal caring relations and networks. In this paper, we examine the impact of social security expansion on neighborhood cohesion of elders using China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), one of the largest existing pension program in the world. Since its launch in 2009, more than 400 million Chinese have enrolled in NRPS. We use two waves of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to examine the effect of pension receipt on two dimensions of neighborhood cohesion among older adults, i.e. participation in collective recreational activities (e.g., socializing and organizational activities) and altruistic activities (e.g., helping those in need in the community), and the frequencies of these activities. Employing an instrumental variable approach, our empirical strategy addresses the endogeneity of pension receipt via exploiting geographic variation in pension program roll-out. We find evidence that receiving pension only slightly reduces collective recreational activities while significantly crowding out altruistic activities in the communities.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a nonlinear (but positive) relationship between the length of sunlight and birth outcomes in China.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper is one of the first to examine the associations between prenatal sunshine exposure and birth outcomes, specifically the incidence of low birth weight (LBW) and small for gestational age (SGA), based on a nationally representative birth record dataset in China. During the sample period in the 1990s, migration was limited in rural China, allowing us to address the identification challenges, like residential sorting and avoidance behaviors. We found a nonlinear relationship between the length of sunlight and birth outcomes. In particular, prenatal exposure to increasing sunshine was associated with a reduction in the incidence of LBW and SGA, especially in the second trimester during pregnancy. This finding was consistent with the clinical evidence suggesting positive effects of sunshine on birth outcomes via obtaining vitamin D or relieving maternal stress.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals a significant dependence of health inequality in old age of Chinese adults on childhood circumstances and identifies particular patterns.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which childhood circumstances contribute to health inequality in old age and how the contributions may vary across key dimensions of health. We link the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2013 and 2015 with its Life History Survey in 2014 to quantify health inequality due to childhood circumstances for which they have little control. We evaluate comprehensive dimensions of health ranging from cognitive health, mental health, physical health, self-rated health to mortality. Our analytic sample includes about 8,000 Chinese persons age above 60. Using the Shapley value decomposition approach, we first show that childhood circumstances may explain 1-23 percent of health inequality in old age across multiple health outcomes. Second, while both direct health-related circumstances and indirect health-related circumstances contribute significantly to health inequality, the latter tends to be more sizable. Our findings support the value of a life course approach in identifying the key determinants of health in old age.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that given first names of leaders from World War II can predict behavior in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and beyond.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We implement a novel empirical strategy for measuring and studying a strong form of nationalism – the willingness to fight and die in a war for national independence – using name choices corresponding to previous war leaders. Based on data on almost half a million soldiers, we first show that having been given a first name that is synonymous with the leader(s) of the Croatian state during World War II predicts volunteering for service in the 1991-1995 Croatian war of independence and dying during the conflict. Next, we use the universe of Croatian birth certificates and the information about nationalism conveyed by first names to suggests that in ex-Yugoslav Croatia, nationalism was on a continuous rise starting in the 1970s and that its rise was curbed in areas where concentration camps were located during WWII. Our evidence on intergenerational transmission of nationalism is consistent with nationalist fathers purposefully reflecting the trade-o¤ between within-family and society-wide transmission channels of political values. We also link the nationalist values we proxy using first name choices to right-wing voting behavior in 2015, 20 years after the war.
A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that, among other insights, R&D has overall negligible effects on the probability of workers to become self-employed; it increases the probability of moving from unemployment to paid employment, especially in routinized areas, and reduces the permeability between routinized and non-routinized workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The paper adds to the literature on innovation and employment by looking at the relationship between R&D investments and the rise of alternative work arrangements, particularly self-employment (SE). A literature review on the determinants of the emergence of non-standard work, alternative work arrangements and self-employment if offered first. The contributions that have looked at SE in relation to innovation strategies is surprisingly limited. General trends of SE in Europe are considered. The empirical contribution is focused on the analysis of local labor markets in the UK (Travel-To-Work-Areas, TTWAs), where their initial concentration of routinized and non-routinized jobs is considered. The probability that an individual shifts from paid employment to either unemployment or self-employment over the period 2001-13, as linked to changes in R&D investments in the TTWA is empirically accounted for. Results show that overall R&D has negligible effects on the probability of workers to become self-employed. R&D increases the probability of moving from unemployment to paid employment, especially in routinized areas, and reduces the permeability between routinized and non-routinized workers. Also, a non-negligible increase in the probability that a routinized worker becomes SE as a result of R&D increase is found in low routinized local labor markets, but not in highly routinized areas. The paper sheds new lights on the effect of R&D on employment and self-employment in areas with different degrees of routinization, and adds to the discussion on the more general raise of alternative work arrangements in Europe by disentangling the characteristics of self-employment as resulting from R&D investments.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that firms in China share rents with their workers, although at a smaller level than in developed economies.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Do firms in China share rents with their workers? We address this question by examining firm-level panel data covering virtually all manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2007, representing an average of 52 million workers per year. We find evidence of rent sharing (RS), with wage-profit elasticities of between 4% and 6%. These results are based on multiple instrumental variables, including firm-specific international trade shocks. We also present a number of complementary findings to understand better the nature of RS in the country: it involves an element of risk sharing, as wages also decrease when profits fall; RS is lower in regions with more latent competition from rural workers; higher minimum wages tend to reduce RS; and, while employer labor market power reduces wages, it increases RS. Overall, despite its importance, RS in China is smaller and more symmetric than in developed economies, which reflects the weaker bargaining power of its workers and the different nature of its labor market institutions.
A new GLO Discussion Paper simulates an increase of public spending in health care and social assistance in the Chinese economy and examines the effects on seven regions of the world economy: China, Japan, the United States, the European Union, Latin America, Asia‐Pacific and the Rest of the World.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we simulate the effects of an increase in the levels of public spending in health care and social assistance in the Chinese economy, and examine its global effects, i.e., the effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy, namely, China, Japan, United States, European Union, Latin America, Asia‐Pacific and Rest of the World. Three different rules to finance the increase in public expenditure are considered. The empirical methodology makes use of a computable general equilibrium model, through an extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project model. The policy measure simulated led to either expansionary or contractionary effects on China’s activity levels, depending on whether the government deficit is left to increase, or if taxes are raised instead in order to offset it. While no sector seemed to be particularly hurt by this measure, trade flows were negatively affected, but this did not seem to have a strong influence on the rest of the world.
A new GLO Discussion Paperprovides a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration; it reveals the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlines the importance of non-economic reasons for return.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This chapter undertook the monumental task of providing a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration by bringing together the perspectives of the host and the home country. In this endeavor, it reviewed and evaluated all theories about why people move, when they circulate, where they go, who are the people who migrate, who are the people who return, and how they change the economic and social structures in the home country. In the process, it revealed the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlined the importance of non-economic reasons for return. The chapter further provided a state-of-the-art literature review about empirical evidence regarding the disparate phenomena of return, circular and onward migration. It emphasized commonalities and compared differences in findings, while connecting them to the theories, policies and institutions. Return, repeat, and circular migrants are self-selected and extremely heterogeneous people and cannot conform under one theory or empirical study. Their de facto migration comportment can be understood by several different theories and, in the absence of good data, it can be explained by a variety of studies. The chapter ends with a critical conclusion and hope to inspire new avenues of research on the topic.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals thatRussia has similar migration flows than the US and the EU, but they imply rather divergence than convergence across regions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper aims to assess the role of migration as an adjustment mechanism device to favor convergence across states and regions of Russia. In contrast to previous studies, we use variations in the population of a region as a proxy of its net migration rate and apply spatial econometric methodology in order to distinguish the effect from the neighbouring regions. We provide descriptive statistical evidence showing that Russia has more/less/the same intense migration flows than the USA and EU. The econometric analysis shows that migration flows are sensitive to both regional income and regional unemployment differentials. Nonetheless, we find that internal migration is sensitive to regional unemployment and income differentials of neighbouring regions. Dependent on the welfare, pre- or after-crisis period, income in neighbouring regions can create out- or in-migration flows. The relatively high degree of internal mobility coupled with the low sensitivity of migration flows to the local unemployment rate of distant regions might explain why migration flows tends not to generate convergence, but rather divergence across Russian regions.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals a significant dependence of current financial institutions in Africa on the legal origin and the colonization type.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper links banking systems development to the colonial and legal history of African countries. Specifically, we investigate the impact of differing legal traditions on the development of existing investor and creditor protection, and on African banking systems. Based on a sample of 40 African countries from 2000 to 2016, our empirical findings show a significant dependence of current financial institutions on the legal origin and the colonization type. Findings also reveal that current legal financial institutions are not the major determinants of banking system development, whereas institutional and regulatory quality significantly matter for banking system development in both common and civil law countries. Strong creditor rights reduce the cost of banking in African countries.
A new GLO Discussion Paperpresentsevidence that reshoring in the age of automationis positively associated with wages and employment for high-skilled labor but not for low-skilled labor.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We propose a theoretical framework to analyze the offshoring and reshoring decisions of firms in the age of automation. Our theory suggests that increasing productivity in automation leads to a relocation of previously offshored production back to the home economy but without improving low-skilled wages and without creating jobs for low-skilled workers. Since it leads also to increasing wages for high-skilled workers, automation-induced reshoring is associated with an increasing skill premium and increasing inequality. We develop a measure for reshoring activity at the macro-level and, using data from the world input output table, we provide evidence for automation-driven reshoring. On average, within manufacturing sectors, an increase by one robot per 1000 workers is associated with a 3.5% increase of reshoring activity. Using robots in countries with similar sectoral structure as an instrument, we find that an increase by one robot per 1000 workers causes a 2.5% increase of reshoring activity. We also provide the first cross-country evidence that reshoring is positively associated with wages and employment for high-skilled labor but not for low-skilled labor and that tariffs increase the degree of reshoring.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the demand-pull effect on firms’ growth is heterogeneous across different types of demand sources and that success depends on firms’ specific knowledge profiles.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The present paper explores the demand-pull effect of distinct demand sources (i.e. households and retailers, other firms and public sector) on Italian companies’ growth patterns. Data relies on the PEC (Indagine sulle Professioni e le Competenze) survey carried out by the Institute for Public Policy Analysis (INAPP), which provides a rich set of information on a representative sample of Italian companies (~32.000) observed during the years 2012, 2014 and 2017. In particular, we investigate if and to what extent firm-level growth profiles are linked to the prevalent source of the demand flows that such firms face. The analysis contextually accounts for the role played by technological and knowledge-related heterogeneities in shaping the growth pattern-demand type relationship. The empirical analysis shows that the demand-pull effect on firms’ growth is heterogeneous across different types of demand sources and that the ability to seize the growth-related chances provided by distinct demand conditions is contingent on firms’ specific knowledge profiles.
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the evolution of livelihood diversification in Egypt with a particular focus on wealth and urban-rural divides.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Livelihood diversification is attracting considerable interest as a tool to cope with economic shocks and resist vulnerability. This paper investigates the evolution of livelihood diversification in Egypt with a particular focus on wealth and urban-rural divides. Using Egypt Labor Market Panel data from 2006 to 2018, I find that rural households have a more diversified livelihood portfolio, yet they diversified away from farming over time. Poor rural households remained dependent on informal livelihood strategies due to the high entry barriers to formal employment. Urban households had significantly less livelihood diversification than rural households. Wealthy households in urban areas tended to depend on relatively more specialized livelihood clusters which were stable over time. These findings imply that distress is a potential reason for diversification in urban areas.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that benefits do not necessarily reach the poor and vulnerable households at the regional level.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Tunisian social programs provide direct transfers and free or reduced rate access to public health care for families selected by local and regional commissions. In some areas, poor and vulnerable families are excluded from these programs whose places are occupied by other households. The center is often ill-informed about the performance of different regions in reaching the poor and about the exclusion and inclusion errors sources. This lack of information can severely limit the options for designing reforms that will improve targeting performance. In a nutshell : Two components of social safety nets in Tunisia: one covers more, and the other is more generous. The regional commissions often select households headed by women widowed and elderly as beneficiaries. At the regional level, some beneficiaries are not eligible, and the eligible are not beneficiaries. The inclusion of the non-poor and the exclusion of the poor at the regional level are due to disagreement between eligibility criteria and a person’s poverty status.
A new GLO Discussion Paperpresents cross-country evidence that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We present cross-country evidence suggesting that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. In particular, we find that doubling agricultural credits generates around 4-5 percent increase in agricultural productivity. We use two different agricultural production measures: (i) the agricultural component of GDP and (ii) agricultural labor productivity. Employing a combination of panel-data and instrumental- variable methods, we show that agricultural credits operate mostly on the agricultural component of GDP in developing countries and agricultural labor productivity in developed countries. This suggests that the nature of the relationship between agricultural finance and agricultural output changes along the development path. We conjecture that development of the agricultural finance system generates entry into the agricultural labor market, which pushes up the agricultural component of GDP and keeps down agricultural labor productivity in developing countries; while, in developed countries, it leads to labor-augmenting increase in agricultural production. We argue that replacement of the informal credit channel with formal and advanced agricultural credit markets along the development path is the main force driving the labor market response.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that smartphone use reduces student success.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: To study the causal impact of smartphone use on academic performance, we collected—for the first time worldwide—longitudinal data on students’ smartphone use and educational performance. For three consecutive years we surveyed all students attending classes in eleven different study programs at two Belgian universities on general smartphone use and other drivers of academic achievement. These survey data were merged with the exam scores of these students. We analyzed the resulting data by means of panel data random effects estimation controlling for unobserved individual characteristics. A one standard deviation increase in overall smartphone use results in a decrease of 0.349 points (out of 20) and a decrease of 2.616 percentage points in the fraction of exams passed.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that employees with a temporary contract experience more loneliness at work as opposed to employees with a permanent contract. It also reveals that loneliness at work mediates the association between working temporarily and job satisfaction.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This research contributes to the limited literature concerning the determinants of loneliness at work, as well as to the literature on psychological outcomes associated with temporary work. More specifically, we are adding to the literature by exploring whether there is an association between working temporarily and loneliness at work and whether loneliness at work partly explains the association between working temporarily and job satisfaction. To this end, we analyze—by means of a mediation model—a unique sample of Flemish employees in the private sector. We find that employees with a temporary contract experience more loneliness at work as opposed to employees with a permanent contract. In addition, we discover that loneliness at work mediates the association between working temporarily and job satisfaction.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the return rate to the labor market is between 50% and two thirds whereas survivors are experiencing lower work abilities and discrimination.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Objectives: To synthesise the existing reviews conducted on the labour market outcomes of cancer survivors by focusing on (i) the convergences and divergences on the overall work-related outcomes, (ii) the moderating factors studied to date, and (iii) an identification of areas where more research is needed in the future. Methods: A systematic review of the existing reviews on labour market outcomes for cancer survivors was performed. Bibliographic search for eligible studies published before January 2019 involved the following three core concepts: (i) cancer survivors, (ii) work, and (iii) review. The quality of the included reviews was assessed based on the Johns Hopkins Hospital Evidence Level and Quality Guide. Following this, a narrative synthesis of the findings was completed. Results: In total, 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. The average return to work (RTW) rate varied between 54% and 66%. The self-reported work ability was consistently lower following cancer. This review also found strong converging evidence of self-reported discrimination after cancer. The effects on work performance showed several inconsistencies, possibly due to the use of different definitions of work performance. Most moderating factors for successful work outcomes showed converging evidence, except for age, marital status, cancer type, and country. We provide several possible explanations and linkages for these divergencies. Conclusions: Further investigation of causal relationships by (i) using matched control groups and by (ii) gathering longitudinal data, and the use of more standardised definitions of the outcome variables are the two main future research recommendations. Furthermore, no studies have succeeded in measuring the work outcomes objectively. We provide specific recommendations from an interdisciplinary context to solve this.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that same-sex marriage legalization permanently increased the migration flow of homosexuals moving to more tolerant states in the United States.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of marriage regulation on the migratory behavior of individuals using the history of the liberalization of same-sex marriage across the United States. Because the approval of same-sex marriage allows homosexuals access to legal rights and social benefits, marriage becomes more attractive relative to singlehood or other forms of partnership. The differences in the value of other forms of relationship status relative to marriage can affect the migration decisions of individuals, to the extent that those states approving same-sex marriage can be considered less discriminatory. Results show that that legal reform permanently increased the migration flow of homosexuals moving to tolerant states (i.e., those that have legalized same-sex marriage). The physical distance among states does not appear to be driving our estimates since the migration flow of homosexuals is not limited to border or close states. Supplemental analysis, developed to explore whether the migration flow is translated to a significant effect to the stock of homosexuals by state, suggests that that stock increased after the approval of same-sex marriage but that it was transitory, pointing to a ‘no effect’ on the spatial distribution of homosexuals as times went by. The liberalization of marriage for homosexuals also has an effect on the migration behavior of those individuals originating from countries in which same-sex sexual activity is illegal, for whom we observe an outflow migration from those states with same sex marriage, pointing to dissimilarities in cultural aspects related to homosexuality as important factors in migration decisions.
