A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the labour market effects of removing surgical requirements to change legal gender.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper uses data from the BRFSS over the period 2014-2019 to analyse the impact of removing surgical requirements to change legal gender. In many states transgender people are forced to undergo surgical procedures if they wish to change their gender on ID documents, which can be invasive, expensive, and is not always desired. In the present work state variation in the timing of the removal of surgical requirements is exploited within a triple difference framework to analyse the causal impact of these removals on the labour force participation and employment of transgender people. The findings highlight the detrimental economic impact of surgical requirements for transgender people to be able to reassign gender on birth certificates, especially for those individuals that are least likely to be able to afford surgical treatment.
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Zhiling Wang, Assistant Professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam and GLO Fellow Do International Study Programmes Pay off for Native Students? (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Ömer Tuğsal Doruk, Assistant Professor at Adana Alparslan Türkeş Science and Technology University and GLO Fellow School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Francesco Pastore)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the public sector in the UK exhibits a high magnitude of mismatch and is an attractive waiting room for highly-qualified graduates.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper looks at the extent of labor market mismatch of public-sector female employees. It contributes to earlier findings for the British labor market by taking into account the endogenous self-selection into jobs. Estimates are based on data from the British Household Panel Study and the ’Understanding Society’ covering the years 1991-2016. The analysis verifies that the public sector offers a few low skilled jobs and employs, mostly, high-educated (female) workers. Regarding the market flows, findings show the greater mobility of the female workforce, which moves proportionately between sectors. Greater in-/out-flows to/from private sector are observed regardless the gender of the employee. Once comparing women to the median employee, a sizeable incidence of mismatch arises due to negative selection. Specifications using the selection model for the public sector illustrate a systematically higher magnitude of mismatch. Pooled results seem to dominate when women seen in the male labor market or in a restricted subsample. Finally, the map of occupations in mismatch supports that the public sector is more attractive as a waiting room for highly-qualified graduates. They queue less time until they find a good job. Hence, policy implications regarding the allocation of jobs for women may arise.
EBES & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has opened the event together with EBES Vice President Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin. The event was warmly welcomed by the Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business, UNED, Madrid, Spain, Alberto A. Alvarez Lopez. (See below, Alvarez right, Zimmermann, left.)
The opening was followed by a plenary session on publishing in research journals with Marco Vivarelli, Jonathan Batten and Klaus F. Zimmermann.
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: School closures during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 forced countries to swiftly adopt distance learning, with uncertain effects on education inequalities. Using PISA 2018 data from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, we find that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses that, everything else equal, range from 70 percent of a school year in the United Kingdom to 50 percent in Italy. Similar results are found by considering days of absence from school. In both approaches, the distribution of cognitive losses is associated with countries’ educational systems. In the longer run, students who cannot learn remotely are more likely to end their education early and repeat grades. The two outcomes strongly reinforce each other in Spain, Germany and Italy. Results – robust to different specifications and the imputation of missing data – imply that countries must enhance e-learning and support disadvantaged students, but tune these measures to the characteristics of their educational systems.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that for immigrants to Australia self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labor force participation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Zhiming Cheng, Ben Wang, Lucy Taksa & Max Tani
Author Abstract: We use the panel data from the Building a New Life in Australia survey to examine the relationships between proficiency in English and labour market outcomes among humanitarian migrants. Having better general or speaking skills in English is certainly associated with a higher propensity for participation in the labour force and getting a job. However, we also find that, compared to other domains of English proficiency, such as listening, reading and writing, proficiency in English speaking skills has been the least improved domain for humanitarian migrants’ who have participated in an English training program. Our paper explores the channels leading to these outcomes, finding that self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labour force participation. We also find that self-efficacy, general health and indicative serious mental illness partially mediate the relationship between better English proficiency and the chance of getting a job.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds growing financial concerns among university students in Turkey about social and economic welfare.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Despite little to no academic attention, widespread perception of the welfare state policies is a critical aspect of its evaluation, existence and the validity processes; especially that amongst youth and the new generations. This paper discusses welfare or the quality of life perceptions in Turkey and in particular the university students’ economic and social welfare concerns. The paper is based upon survey outcomes from two different cities’ university students, across Turkey; and analyzes the Turkish university students’ current welfare, happiness, contentment with life and the future financial wellness perceptions. We employ the standard chi-square test of independence to test our hypotheses. The research aims to contribute to the efforts towards a roadmap regarding the socio-economic policies to be implemented for the future of Turkey. The paper finds growing financial concerns among university students in terms of social and economic welfare. This is despite the recent economic, social and cultural transformation in modern Turkey. Meanwhile, the latest pandemic is likely to have deteriorated these perceptions. This research, meanwhile, is a worthy analysis to understand contentment regarding the current economic outlook, as well as the concerns and confidence in terms of financial future and wellness. Understanding these perceptions may potentially help in carving the middle and long-term national social and economic policies.
EBES and GLO are partner organizations. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES. EBES & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann will open the event together with EBES Vice President Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin. Zimmermann will also chair a panel session on publishing in research journals.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics suggests that children may cause unhappiness because of challenging family finances.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7Z4b GLO Discussion Paper No. 561 – freeDownload PDF
GLO Fellows David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark
Danny Blanchflower
Andrew Clark
Author Abstract: The common finding of a zero or negative correlation between the presence of children and parental well-being continues to generate research interest. We consider international data, including well over one million observations on Europeans from 11 years of Eurobarometer surveys. We first replicate this negative finding, both in the overall data and then for most different marital statuses. Children are expensive: controlling for financial difficulties turns our estimated child coefficients positive. We argue that difficulties paying the bills explain the pattern of existing results by parental education and income and by country income and social support. Last, we underline that not all children are the same, with stepchildren commonly having a more negative correlation with well-being than children from the current relationship.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 25K journal downloads & over 70 Google Scholar cites as of October 10, 2020.
A new GLO Discussion Paperanalyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers in Portugal.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Exploring a rich matched employer-employee data set over the 1998-2012 period and a novel measure of educational mismatch, this study analyses the short and medium-term effects of over- and undereducation on the wages of newly hired workers. The data show that more than 50 percent of the employed in the private sector in Portugal experienced a job mismatch at the moment of being hired. According to the statistical measure based on the flows of newly hired workers, in the period under scrutiny overeducation is decreasing and undereducation is increasing, indicating that labour market demand is keeping pace with the rise in educational attainment of the Portuguese population. The results reveal that the wage differential between adequately matched workers and mismatched workers decreases considerably once worker and firm unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. In fact, worker permanent heterogeneity explains two-thirds of the overducated wage penalty and three-fourths of the undereducated wage premium, indicating that the undereducated seem to correspond to a higher-ability group of employees, while the overeducated seem to correspond to a lower-ability group of workers. Heterogeneity in firm paying policies also play an important role in explaining the wage gap of newly hired mismatched workers. Finally, the results also indicate that the wages of individuals in the beginning of their labour market career are the most affected by a job mismatch.
TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on October 1, 2020 by Alfonso Flores-Lagunes on The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans. Below find a report, the video of the seminar and the presentation slides.
Announcement/forthcoming seminar: November 5, 2020:London/UKat 1-2 pm Ira Gang, Rutgers University and GLO Topic: To be announced. Registration details will be provided in time.
Report
The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans
GLO Virtual Seminar on October 1, 2020 Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Syracuse University and GLO Presentation slides and video of the seminar.
Study finds significant and relevant long-term effects for volunteers.
Based on a joint paper with Xintong Wang and Carlos A. Flores on “The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis”, forthcoming.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsdemonstrates how to use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, a hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 1/2020. Free Readlink – Download PDF GLO Discussion Paper No. 630, 2020
GLO Fellow Domenico Depalo
Author Abstract: In this paper I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information is relevant for the policy maker, to make decisions, and for the public, to adopt appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias I use partial identification to derive these quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values, or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions, but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than before 2020. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from Covid-19 are between 0.1% and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed for long time. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4. PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00800-7 PDF free accessible.
A new GLO Discussion Paperdevelops and applies a new econometric identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization with problematic findings for the reform.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in- discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that access to finance affects employment growth in small and medium-sized enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In the past decade inclusive growth, that is job-rich growth, has topped the policy agenda in developing countries. This paper investigates how the access to finance affects employment in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. It first presents a model where firm creation requires entrepreneurial search and paying the start-up costs, while the firm’s size in terms of employment depends on the access to credit. Under the financial market imperfections, access to credit can be a binding constraint on firm entry and employment even when the banks have sufficient liquidity. Using an impact evaluation-based approach on firm-level data from 42 African countries, we show that SMEs with access to formal financing create more jobs than firms without access, with employment in firms having access to more affordable and larger loans growing the fastest. The impact of access to finance is stronger for firms in manufacturing than in services, pointing to sectoral targeting of finance as a possible policy supporting industrialization.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows for Turkey that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile, but no such results are obtained for men.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The paper aims to identify the effect of non-standard employment on wages in the Turkish labor market across gender and decompose the gap to understand the role of endowments and returns in generating the earning differences. Our findings show that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile but no such results are obtained for men. Besides, females with standard jobs in Turkey earn more than men, however, the opposite holds for females in non-standard positions. Also, a big part of the gender pay gap is attributable to returns, especially at the lower end of the distribution. Women in low-paid and atypical jobs face larger pay gaps, and the role of unexplained component suggests they are discriminated. The distinct impact of non-standard employment on men and women suggest that policies geared towards labor market flexibility should take gender perspective into account.
A new GLO Discussion Papercontributes to the rising literature on the impact of natural light on economic behavior. Using Daylight Saving Time as a natural experiment it finds that the increase of light has reduced crime in Montevideo strongly.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde
Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Jacob Arendt
Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up the entry into regular jobs for males, but that they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. The long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We show that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough, even after they emigrate to a modern industrial economy where individual productivity depends on education rather than physical characteristics. The result rests on the argument that, if efficiency requires the more productive spouse to specialize in raising income, and the less productive one in raising children, irrespective of gender, an efficient domestic equilibrium will be implemented by a costlessly enforceable pre-marital contract stipulating that the husband should do the former and the wife the latter. A contract may not be needed, however, if time spent with children gives direct utility, because an efficient equilibrium may then be characterized by little or no division of labor.
Featured image: georg-arthur-pflueger-0PL-g-9fxgs-unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Sweden a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020; forthcoming 2021 in the Journal of Population Economics.
Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age eighteen. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
Featured image: Photo-by-Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the hypothesis that trade can be an engine of growth using data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. It finds that export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought any effects on growth.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper empirically tests the hypothesis that trade can act as an engine of growth using panel data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional integration agreement (RIA) organization, the central objective of whose formation was the need to accelerate, foster, and encourage the region’s growth. Our results indicate that during the period covered by this study (2005-2017), export expansion stimulated growth, more openness to trade reduced it, and that the formation of SADC had not yet brought about any effects on growth perhaps because of lack of full establishment of the primary instruments for achieving its central objective. These results lead to three conclusions. Firstly, trade through export expansion seems to be a better solution for SADC for achieving the central objective of its formation. Secondly, more openness to trade seems to jeopardize growth. Finally, the formation of SADC has not yet brought about the expected gains from a RIA. In this context, we recommend that policymakers should consider adopting measures aimed at supporting increased trade through promoting export expansion, achieving strong absorption of negative chocks that usually result from trade, and exploring the possibility of establishing all the planned primary instruments for achieving SADC’s central objective.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the direct and indirect impacts the extractive industries have on economic growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are rich in natural resources and in most of them their extractive industries extract and export natural resources with little industrial processing. This study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts that the extractive industries in the SADC countries have on their economic growth. The study also examines the hypothesis of economic convergence. Its empirical results are based on data from the 11 founding SADC countries covering the period 2004-17. The results show that despite the process of integration, the SADC economies do not converge in terms of per capita incomes. The extractive industries have direct negative impacts on the countries’ economic growth thus providing evidence of a resource curse. Extractive industries in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have positive direct impacts on their economic growth. However, in terms of indirect impacts, the extractive industries do not have any impact on GDP because their impact on manufacturing, human capital, public expenditure, economic openness, exchange rate, and inflation is insignificant. The study also shows that GDP, the colonial path followed by these countries, and inflation have a negative but insignificant impact on extractive industries, while manufacturing, government expenditure, and economic openness have positive but insignificant impacts in all SADC countries. Human capital and exchange rate are the only factors that have both significant positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively.
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the optimal policy response to Covid-19 depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We address the problem of finding the optimal lockdown and reopening policy during a pandemic like COVID-19 for a social planner who prioritizes health over the economy. Agents are connected through a fuzzy network of contacts, and the planner’s objective is to determine the policy that contains the spread of infection below a tolerable incidence level, and that maximizes the present discounted value of real income, in that order of priority. We show theoretically that the planner’s problem has a unique solution. The optimal policy depends both on the configuration of the contact network and the tolerated infection incidence. Using simulations, we apply these theoretical findings to: (i) quantify the trade-off between the economic cost of the pandemic and the infection incidence allowed by the social planner, and show how this trade-off depends on network configuration; (ii) understand the correlation between different measures of network centrality and individual lockdown probability, and derive implications for the optimal design of surveys on social distancing behavior and network structure; and (iii) analyze how segregation induces differential health and economic dynamics in minority and majority populations, also illustrating the crucial role of patient zero in these dynamics.
A new GLO Discussion Paper indicates that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distributionsuggesting significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using an online survey of Australian residents, we elicit the potential impacts of COVID-19 related labour market shocks on a validated measure of financial wellbeing. Experiencing a reduction in hours and earnings, entering into unemployment or having to file for unemployment benefits during the pandemic are strongly and significantly associated with decreases in financial wellbeing of 29% or 18 points on the financial wellbeing scale of 0-100, despite various government measures to reduce such effects. Unconditional quantile regression analyses indicate that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution. Counterfactual distribution regressions indicate a shifting of the financial wellbeing distribution leftwards brought on by those suffering any of the above-mentioned labour market shocks, indicating potential significant increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality.
2021 Kuznets Prize Awarded to Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, & Wei Shias announced by the office of the Journal of Population Economics.
Yun Qiu (Jinan University), Xi Chen (Yale University), and Wei Shi (Jinan University) will receive the 2021 Kuznets Prize for their article (please click title below for OPEN ACCESS)
which was published in the Journal of Population Economics (2020), 33(4), pp. 1127–1172. The annual prize honors the best article published in the Journal of Population Economics in the previous year.
The award will be given to the authors during a special public journal event in the Fall of 2020.
Biographical Abstracts
Yun Qiu is an assistant professor at Institute for Economic and Social Research at Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). She obtained a Ph.D. in Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics from the Ohio State University. She is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Yun uses applied econometric techniques to conduct research in areas focused on (1) understanding the health and productivity impacts of extreme weather and air pollution in China; (2) characterizing the influencing factors of the spread of COVID-19 and its socioeconomic impacts; (3) valuing coastal adaptation strategies and urban amenities.
Xi Chen is an associate professor of Health Policy and Economics at Yale University. He obtained a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Cornell University. His research endeavors focus on improving public policies on population aging, life course health, and global health systems. Dr. Chen is a consultant at the United Nations Institutions, Fellow at the Global Labor Organization (GLO), former President of the China Health Policy and Management Society, and Butler-Williams Scholar at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Dr. Chen’s work has been published in prestigious economics, science and medical journals, recognized through numerous awards, and widely covered in media.
Wei Shi is an associate professor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University (Guangzhou, China). His research interests include topics in econometrics, real estate economics, and applied microeconomics. His current research focuses on panel data models with spatial interactions and multidimensional heterogeneities, peer effects models, and applications of spatial econometric models. He is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the Ohio State University.
Yun Qiu
Xi Chen
Wei Shi
Abstract of the Winning Paper
“This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.”
About the Kuznets Prize
The Journal of Population Economics awards the ‘Kuznets Prize’ for the best paper published in the Journal of Population Economicsin the previous year. Starting from 2014 the Prize has been awarded annually. Papers are judged by the Editors of the Journal.
Simon Kuznets, a pioneer in population economics, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University and the 1971 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, died on July 10, 1985. Professor Kuznets was born 1901 in Pinsk, Belarus, and came to the United States in 1922. He earned his Bachelor of Science in 1923, a Master of Arts degree in 1924 and his doctorate in 1926, all from Columbia University. During World War II he was Associate Director of the Bureau of Planning and Statistics on the War Production Board, and he served on the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1927 to 1960. Mr. Kuznets was a faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania for 24 years and Professor of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University from 1954 until he joined Harvard University in 1960. He retired in 1971 and was given the title of George F. Baker Professor Emeritus of Economics. He was a former president of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association.
Previous Winners
The Kuznets Prize (please click titles for READ LINKS FOR FREE) has previously been awarded to:
2020: Gautam Hazarika (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley), Chandan Kumar Jha (Le Moyne College, Madden School of Business), and Sudipta Sarangi (Virginia Tech) for their article “Ancestral ecological endowments and missing women,“ Journal of Population Economics (2019), 32(4): pp. 1101-1123.
2016: Loren Brandt (University of Toronto), Aloysius Siow (University of Toronto), and Hui Wang (Peking University) for their article “Compensating for unequal parental investments in schooling,” Journal of Population Economics 28: 423-462.
Period 2010-2012: Richard W. Evans (Brigham Young University), Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University) and Zhong Zhao (Renmin University) for their article “The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births“, Journal of Population Economics 23: 1-36.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics challenges the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b7sJK
Author Abstract: This study estimates the causal effect of paid vacation on health. Using register data on the universe of central government employees in Sweden, I exploit an age-based rule stipulated in the collective agreement covering these employees. I achieve identification by combining a regression discontinuity with a difference-in-differences design to control for time-invariant differences between consecutive birth cohorts and isolate the true effect at two separate discontinuities at ages 30 and 40. The main results indicate that an increase of three paid vacation days at age 30 and four days at age 40 do not cause significant changes in health, as proxied by visits to specialized outpatient care, inpatient admissions, and long-term sick leaves. These findings challenge the anecdotal view of additional paid vacation days as an adequate means to improve workers’ health.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics investigates for the Italian case the effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19 and the implications for the future.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano
Journal of Population Economics (2020), published ONLINE FIRST. PDF free accessible. Based on GLO Discussion Paper No. 541, 2020
GLO Fellows Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano and GLO Affiliate Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini
Author Abstract: In the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home (WFH) became of great importance for a large share of employees since it represents the only option to both continue working and minimise the risk of virus exposure. Uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and future contagion waves even led companies to view WFH as a ‘new normal’ way of working. Based on influence function regression methods, this paper explores the potential consequences in the labour income distribution related to a long-lasting increase in WFH feasibility among Italian employees. Results show that a positive shift in WFH feasibility would be associated with an increase in average labour income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in the opportunity to WFH would favour male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. However, this ‘forced innovation’ would benefit more employees living in provinces have been more affected by the novel coronavirus. WFH thus risks exacerbating pre-existing inequalities in the labour market, especially if it will not be adequately regulated. As a consequence, this study suggests that policies aimed at alleviating inequality, like income support measures (in the short run) and human capital interventions (in the long run), should play a more important compensating role in the future.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS
OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4. PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.
All the presentation in this series are based on the projects that GLO-VirtYS program scholars completed as part of their program participation.
September 17th Program
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Satyendra Kumar Gupta, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy and GLO Affiliate Irrigation and Culture: Gender Roles and Women’s Rights (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Almas Heshmati)
Kelly Hyde, University of Pittsburgh and GLO Affiliate The Regressive Costs of Drinking Water Contaminant Avoidance (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Anurag Sharma)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova. Full video of the event. For more information about both speakers and their paper abstracts.
Watch also his related GLO Virtual Seminar presentation on Despair, Unhappiness and Age. Video of seminar.
GLO Fellow David G. Blanchflower & Research Director GLO
Author Abstract: A large empirical literature has debated the existence of a U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in 145 countries, including 109 developing countries, controlling for education and marital and labor force status, among others, on samples of individuals under the age of 70. The U-shape of the curve is forcefully confirmed, with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50 in separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the findings using such data largely confirm the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the age of the minima has risen over time in Europe and the USA.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the wage gap between formal and informal sector workers in Turkey confirming that an informal wage penalty is persistent even after unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Many empirical studies found wage gaps between formal and informal sector workers even after controlling for a number of individual and firm level characteristics. While there is limited amount of research considering the same question in the Turkish labor market, wage gap between formal and informal employees generally do not take unobserved characteristics into account. In our paper, we carry this analysis for Turkey and estimate the wage gap between formal and informal sector workers utilizing panel data from Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) for the period of 2014 and 2017. Mincer wage equations across quantiles are estimated considering observable and unobservable characteristics with a fixed effect model, and for sensitivity tests we regard the possibility of nonlinearity in covariate effects and estimate a variant of matching models. Our results show that informal wage penalty is persistent even after unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, however, the penalty is not statistically significant at the upper end of the wage distribution. Moreover, we show that there are important differences between informal workers who have permanent contracts versus informal workers that have relatively more irregular work arrangements. Not only the latter is subject to earnings reductions, but they also have slightly lower probability of moving out of informal employment. We also demonstrate that the mobility of lower and upper tier informal workers is affected by different variables.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the role of long-term vacancies in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides style search and matching model calibrated to the US economy and identifies a vacancy depletion channel.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We reassess the role of vacancies in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides style search and matching model. In the absence of free entry long lived vacancies and endogenous separations give rise to a vacancy depletion channel which we identify via joint unemployment and vacancy dynamics. We show conditions for constrained efficiency and discuss important implications of vacancy longevity for modeling and calibration, in particular regarding match cyclicality and wages. When calibrated to the postwar US economy, the model explains not only standard deviations and autocorrelations of labor market variables, but also their dynamic correlations with only one shock.
Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effects of unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper examines how economic insecurity and cultural anxiety have triggered different dimensions of the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit two quasi-natural experiments, the Great Recession and the 2014 Northern Triangle immigrant influx, to investigate the effects of unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. I discover that recent unemployment during the Great Recession, rather than existing unemployment from before the recession, increased the probability of attitudes forming against wealthy elites by 15 percentage points. Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic unfairness as a mechanism through which recent unemployment drove left-wing populism. However, cultural anxiety rather than economic insecurity more likely led to the over 10 percentage points rise in the probability of anti-immigration attitudes developing. These attitudes are related to right-wing populism. Furthermore, I obtain evidence that cohorts economically suffering the aftermath of the Great Recession were associated with 40 percentage points higher likelihood of supporting left-wing populist Bernie Sanders, while cohorts residing in regions most intensely impacted by the immigrant in ux were associated with 10 percentage points higher possibility to vote for right-wing populist Donald Trump. This study attempts to link distinct economic and cultural driving forces to different types of populism and to contribute to the understanding on the potential interactions of the economic and cultural triggers of the currently surging populism.
A new GLO Discussion Paper quantifies the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households’ experience of food insecurity by 13 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 11 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.
Sydney (10pm), Beijing (8pm), Istanbul (3pm), Berlin (2pm), London (1pm), Cape Town (2pm), Washington DC (8am), Santiago de Chile (8am)
Satyendra Kumar Gupta, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy and GLO affiliate Irrigation and Culture: Gender Roles and Women’s Rights (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Almas Heshmati)
Kelly Hyde, University of Pittsburgh and GLO affiliate The Regressive Costs of Drinking Water Contaminant Avoidance (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Anurag Sharma)
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova.
Satyendra Kumar Gupta
Satyendra Kumar Gupta is working as assistant professor at Jindal School of Government and Public Policy. He received PhD in economics from NTU Singapore in 2017. His research interest are in long-run economic growth and development economics. His research interplays between the natural endowment, natural experiments and contemporary economic development. His work is published at JEEM, Land Econ, and Econ Letters.
GLO VirtYS Project
Irrigation and Culture: Gender Roles and Women’s Rights
This paper proposes the hypothesis that the historical use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labor force participation and female property rights. We test the hypothesis using an exogenous measure of irrigation and data from pre-industrial societies (Ethnographic Atlas; Standard Cross-Cultural Sample), the Afrobarometer, cross-country data, the European Social Survey, the American Community Survey, and the India Demographic and Household Survey. Our hypothesis receives considerable empirical support. First, in pre-industrial societies, irrigation was associated with reduced female relative participation in agriculture and subsistence activities. Second, we find negative associations between ancestral irrigation and female labor force participation and related attitudes in the contemporary African and Indian populations, 2nd generation European immigrants, 1.5 and 2nd generation US immigrants, and in cross-country data. Third, in Africa and across countries, ancestral irrigation is negatively associated with female property rights. Our estimates are robust to a host of control variables and alternative specifications. We find some support for four potential partial mechanisms. First, due to the common pool nature of irrigation water, pre-industrial societies had more frequent conflicts and warfare. This raised the social status of males and restricted women’s movements away from home. Second, in premodern societies irrigation activities favored males, which caused females to gravitate toward the home. Over time, these two mechanisms have produced a cultural preference against female participation in the formal labor market. Third, irrigation historically produced autocracy, which tends to weaken property rights. Fourth, historical irrigation has yielded collectivism, which is associated with weaker female property rights.
Kelly Hyde
Kelly Hyde is a PhD candidate in economics at University of Pittsburgh, with concentrations in health, environmental, and behavioral economics. His research broadly focuses on the environmental and behavioral determinants of health disparities in both developed and developing economic contexts. Kelly’s recent work studies the relationship between drinking water contamination, extreme temperatures, and dimensions of poverty in the United States, including food security and risks of adverse health outcomes. He contributes to the existing literature on adaptation to and avoidance of environmental shocks by considering their distributional implications, since the cost of avoidance looms larger for budget-constrained households. This research agenda is supported by a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant from the National Science Foundation.
GLO VirtYS Project
The Regressive Costs of Drinking Water Contaminant Avoidance
Up to 45 million Americans in a given year are potentially exposed to contaminated drinking water, increasing their risk of a wide range of adverse health outcomes. Existing literature has demonstrated that individuals respond to drinking water quality violations by increasing their purchases of bottled water and filtration avoidance, thereby avoiding exposure to contaminants. This paper demonstrates that poorer households, for whom the costs of avoidance comprise a greater share of disposable income, bear disproportionate costs of water quality violations in the United States. Following a health-based water quality violation reported to the Environmental Protection Agency, poor households’ expenditure on nutritious grocery products in a nationally representative panel differentially decreases by approximately $7 per month. This is associated with a decrease of about 1,500 calories per household member per day, placing these individuals at a higher risk of food insecurity. This finding suggests that the indirect costs of drinking water contamination through economic channels exacerbate health disparities associated with poverty.
Samuel Mann, Wales Institute of Social & Economic Research, Data & Methods and GLO affiliate Gender Identity, Employment, Self-Employment and Trans Legislation (GLO VirtYS program advisor Professor Nick Drydakis). VIDEO of this presentation.
Chaired by GLO VirtYS Program Director Olena Nizalova. Full video of the event. For more information about both speakers and their paper abstract.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds that the extra schooling induced by the compulsory schooling reform from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law in China leads to more egalitarian gender role attitudes.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1 FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b68hg
GLO Fellow Liqiu Zhao
Author Abstract: This paper examines whether education plays an important role in shaping individuals’ gender role attitudes. We exploit exogenous variation in temporal and geographical impacts of the 1986 Compulsory Education Law in China, which reduced inequality in compulsory school attendance across regions. Using the data from the China General Social Survey, we find that the extra schooling induced by the compulsory schooling reform leads to more egalitarian gender role attitudes. Education’s liberalizing effect is concentrated among females and urban residents. However, education’s impacts on gender-equal behavior are much weaker than impacts on attitudes. Finally, we discuss the potential channels through which education shapes individuals’ gender-role attitudes.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 22K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 13, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states.This leads to a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of (typically native) employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar migrant workers.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34. FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62qv
Author Abstract: The common European labor market enhances allocative efficiency, but certain institutional features may also trigger inefficient migration. As a job in a high-income country entails generous welfare and social insurance entitlements, migrants’ reservation wages may lie below their opportunity cost of labor. We show that this gives rise to an externality when employers and migrant workers can pass some of their remuneration costs onto taxpayers. Once welfare benefit entitlement is secured, the reservation wage of the migrant rises, giving the firm an incentive to replace the worker with a similar migrant willing to accept lower pay. This leads to excess churn—a reallocation of labor within firms that simultaneously involves a flow of employees to unemployment benefits and the hiring of similar workers. Based on Norwegian data, we present evidence of high excess churn rates in firms with many workers from the new EU member states.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics finds for China that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1 FREEREADLINK: https://rdcu.be/b62py
GLO Fellows Xiaoyu Wu & Yi Zhou
Xiaoyu Wu
Yi Zhou
Author Abstract: This research sheds light on the link between social norms and economic development. It explores the determinants of inheriting the mother’s surname in China and its implications for children’s health status and education outcomes. It establishes that children whose mothers are younger, more educated, and from regions with a lower sex ratio are more likely to be named after their mother. Moreover, these children have superior health and education outcomes, reflecting predominantly the impact of women’s higher bargaining power on children’s human capital accumulation.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST & OPEN ACCESS in the Journal of Population Economics using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada shows that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children.
Hendrik Jürges, Luca Stella, Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34 PDF OPEN ACCESS
Author Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of households’ exposure to violent conflict on children’s educational attainment in primary school, studying cognitive and non-cognitive skills as possible causal channels. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-level variation in the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2005). We show that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children as measured by grade point averages. We find that non-cognitive rather than cognitive skills are the channels through which exposure affects children’s educational achievement.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics examines whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. The study finds a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability than has been found in prior studies.
Published ONLINE FIRST. Forthcoming: Journal of Population Economics (2021) 34, Issue 1 FREE READLINK
GLO Fellows Gigi Foster & Leslie S. Stratton
Gigi Foster
Leslie S. Stratton
Author Abstract: Social norms can have a persistent influence on outcomes. Since the end of World War II, men have been the primary breadwinner in most households in the developed world, and US data from the late twentieth century suggests violation of this norm stresses partnerships. Is this still true? We examine whether female breadwinning makes partnerships less healthy or less stable using more recent US and Australian data. We find a much more modest association in both countries between female breadwinning and measures of relationship health or stability in OLS models for mixed-gender couples than has been found in prior studies. Transitions into female breadwinning are problematic mainly for cohabiting couples and especially so for younger people and less-educated men. These results suggest that social norms may be weakening, but mating market dynamics may also play a role. We find some evidence that cohabiting women in Australia who out-earn their partners subsequently re-partner with men who have higher earnings relative to themselves.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Canada large decreases in the number of small business owners, the number of employed, and in hours worked, from February to July 2020.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Canadian employers are largely small businesses. Their relevance for job creation and labor demand is integral for policymakers concerned with adverse labor market outcomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Canadian Labor Force Survey (LFS) we document how the self-employed, which we interpret as small business owners, and employees of small businesses are being affected by COVID-19. We find large decreases in the number of small business owners, the number of employed, and in hours worked, from February to July 2020. We also find large labor market impact on small business employees. Our research confirms increasing employment, hours worked, and small business ownership as provinces began reopening their economies in May to July 2020. Still, these improvements are often below pre-March 2020 trends with some demographic groups, such as female and immigrant small business owners, having considerably worse outcomes than their respective counterparts.
A new GLO Discussion Paper reviews the literature that investigates the effects of innovation on firm survival and firm productivity, the two main channels through which innovation drives growth.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We review the theoretical underpinnings and the empirical findings of the literature that investigates the effects of innovation on firm survival and firm productivity, which constitute the two main channels through which innovation drives growth. We aim to contribute to the ongoing debate along three paths. First, we discuss the extent to which the theoretical perspectives that inform the empirical models allow for heterogeneity in the effects of R&D/innovation on firm survival and productivity. Secondly, we draw attention to recent modeling and estimation effort that reveals novel sources of heterogeneity, non-linearity and volatility in the gains from R&D/innovation, particularly in terms of its effects on firm survival and productivity. Our third contribution is to link our findings with those from prior reviews to demonstrate how the state of the art is evolving and with what implications for future research.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies mismatch of workers in the Indian labor market: overeducated workers suffer a wage penalty and undereducated workers do not receive a wage reward as compared to their adequately educated counterparts.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using a national level sample survey on the labor market in India, we analyze the role of education-occupation (mis-)match (EOM) in explaining within-group dispersion in returns to education. Applying a double sample selection bias correction and Mincerian quantile wage regression estimation, the analysis reveals interesting findings. First, on average, overeducated workers suffer a wage penalty of seven percent and undereducated workers do not receive a wage reward as compared to their adequately educated counterparts. Second, the inclusion of match status reduces within-education group dispersion in returns. The finding highlights that ignoring EOM and thus, adopting a restrictive view of similarity across workers may lead to overestimation of the within-education group dispersion in returns. This study argues for focusing on EOM to increase both pecuniary and social benefits of education in terms of productivity gains and wages as well as to reduce wage dispersion.
A new GLO Discussion Paper document stronger shocks for truly innovative companies and effects on long-run growth operating through the disruption of preexisting R&D plans.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper contributes to the policy discussion on Covid-19 by presenting real-time evidence on the magnitude of the shock for Italian firms. We take advantage of unique panel data on 7,800 companies between January 2020 (right before the pandemic) and March of the same year (in the midst of lockdown policies). We then exploit the revision in expectation within this short time window to capture the impact of firms’ idiosyncratic shock. Our analysis shows disproportionate effects for internationalized companies and provide some evidence on supply chain contagion. We also document stronger shocks for truly innovative companies and effects on long-run growth operating through the disruption of preexisting R&D plans.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that lockdowns improve air quality, but the effects appear to dissipate after ten weeks.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Little evidence currently exists on the effects of COVID-19 on air quality in poorer countries, where most air pollution-linked deaths occur. We offer the first study that examines the pandemic’s impacts on improving air quality in Vietnam, a lower-middle income country with worsening air pollution. Employing the Regression Discontinuity Design method to analyze a rich database that we compile from satellite air pollution data and data from various other sources, we find the concentration of NO2 to decrease by 24 to 32 percent two weeks after the COVID-19 lockdown. While this finding is robust to different measures of air quality and model specifications, the positive effects of the lockdown appear to dissipate after ten weeks. We also find that mobility restrictions are a potential channel for improved air quality. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that two weeks after the lockdown, the economic gains from better air quality are roughly $0.6 billion US dollars.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds large negative effects on welfare receipts for an Australian reform that imposed job search requirements as a condition of unemployment benefit receipt with expected large labor supply consequences.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Many countries impose job search requirements as a condition of unemployment benefit receipt, but there is relatively little evidence on the efficacy of these requirements. Australian reforms in 1995 and 2003 saw groups of welfare recipients newly subjected to job search requirements, providing an opportunity to identify their effects on welfare receipt. Using this quasi-experimental design and administrative data, we find negative effects on welfare receipt for the mature-age partnered women targeted by the reforms. We also find large negative effects on welfare receipt of their partners, suggesting family labor supply decisions were considerably affected.
The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of August demonstrates how to use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe.
Author Abstract: In this paper I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information is relevant for the policy maker, to make decisions, and for the public, to adopt appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias I use partial identification to derive these quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values, or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions, but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than before 2020. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from Covid-19 are between 0.1% and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed for long time. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.
GLO DP Team Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
A new GLO Discussion Paperusing data for Germany finds that negative emotions are statistically and significantly associated with the respondent’s immigration concerns.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Despite being a regular suspect, a causal role of residents’ emotions in predicting their opposition to international immigration has not been investigated. Using the individual-level panel data from Germany, we study the impact of the individual’s experience of negative emotions (sadness, fear, and anger) on immigration concerns and bridge this gap in the literature. After controlling for person fixed effects and a battery of individual-level and macroeconomic controls, we find that negative emotions are statistically and significantly associated with the respondent’s immigration concerns. The association holds for male as well as female respondents. To estimate the causal effects of negative emotions, we exploit the exogenous variation in negative emotions induced by the death of a parent or the change in averages of daily temperature and employ IV fixed effects regressions. Our findings suggest that, while within-person changes in the respondent’s feelings of anger affect immigration concerns among all respondents, the feelings of sadness and fear affect immigration concerns only among females. The impact of sadness and fear is more forceful among females who are not always-working during the sample period, older in age, and rarely use online social media.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Portugal that workers’ earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China’s competition, but only through the indirect ’market-stealing’ channel. In contrast to earlier evidence, the direct effects of Chinese imports are mostly non-significant.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The increasing range and quality of China’s exports is a major development internationally with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct labor market effects of imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer-employee data of Portugal covering the 1991-2008 period, indicate that workers’ earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China’s competition, but only through the indirect ’market-stealing’ channel. In contrast to earlier evidence, the direct effects of Chinese imports are mostly non-significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in larger, older and domestic firms.
The successful candidate will undertake econometric analysis to explore regional inequalities in health in the UK using detailed biomarker data available in a large national representative social science datasets. Contact: GLO Fellow Apostolos Davillas.
DP of the Month August
