A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. It reveals that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its in uence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any in uence of African cultural traditions.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) were jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
The conference was held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar. Full Program.Over 300 participants worldwide.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). Links lead to the videos of the keynote lectures. – June 5, 2020. Daron Acemoglu (MIT): A Multi-risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown Large gains from targeted policy! – June 6, 2020. Charles Manski (Northwestern University): Coping with COVID Uncertainties We must take care when performing!
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using Italian data finds that workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks (such as workers employed in service occupations as cashiers or call-center operators) are exposed to a relatively higher risk of becoming unemployed.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Featured image: Photo by Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez on Unsplash
Author Abstract: Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011-2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor, 2011) do not display – on average – higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. However, on distinguishing between cognitive and manual tasks, it turns out that workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks (such as workers employed in service occupations as cashiers or call-center operators) are in fact exposed to a relatively higher risk of becoming unemployed. By contrast, a rather lower risk seems to be faced by workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine-manual tasks. Finally, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors – with higher risk in manufacturing and construction – confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using unique Swedish employer-employee data shows that the observed wage gap between established refugees and comparable natives is mainly caused by occupational sorting into cognitive and manual tasks. Within occupations, it can be largely explained by differences in work experience.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO FellowsChristopher F. Baum, Hans Lööf & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann
Hans Lööf
Featured image: Photo by James Beheshti on Unsplash
Author Abstract: Refugee workers start low and adjust slowly to the wages of comparable natives. The innovative approach in this study using unique Swedish employer – employee data shows that the observed wage gap between established refugees and comparable natives is mainly caused by occupational sorting into cognitive and manual tasks. Within occupations, it can be largely explained by differences in work experience. The identification strategy relies on a control group of matched natives with the same characteristics as the refugees, using panel data for 2003–2013 to capture unobserved heterogeneity.
A new GLO Discussion Paper confirms that children cause unhappiness because of challenging family finances.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The common finding of a zero or negative correlation between the presence of children and parental well-being continues to generate research interest. We here consider international data, including well over one million observations on Europeans from eleven years of Eurobarometer surveys, and in the first instance replicate this negative finding, both in the overall data and then for most different marital statuses. Children are expensive: controlling for financial difficulties turns our estimated child coefficients positive. We argue that difficulties paying the bills explains the pattern of existing results by parental education and income, and country income and social support. Last, we underline that not all children are the same, with stepchildren commonly having a more negative correlation than children from the current relationship.
A new GLO Discussion Paper confirms that cooking fuel choice has a statistically significant impact on under-five and neonatal mortality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Indoor air pollution (IAP)–predominantly from the use of solid fuel for cooking– is a global health threat, particularly for women and young children, and one of the leading causes of infant deaths worldwide in developing countries. We estimate the causal effect of cooking fuel choice on infant mortality in India, focusing on children under five years of age using pooled cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) over the period 1992–2016. To address the potential endogeneity in the relationship between fuel choice and mortality, we instrument for cooking fuel choice using a speed of change in forest cover and ownership status of agricultural land, which induce significant variations in fuel type. We find that cooking fuel choice has a statistically significant impact on under-five and neonatal mortality, raising the mortality risk by 4.9 percent. We also find that the past literature has overestimated the association between under-five mortality and polluting fuel use by about 0.6 percentage points or equivalently, 152,000 deaths per year nationally. Our result is robust to a set of alternative specifications with the inclusion of various controls and different estimation strategies.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds a positive effect of preschool on the cognitive development of children in Algeria.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of attending early childcare on the quality of parent–child interactions and children’s cognitive outcomes. My identification strategy exploits geographical differences in terms of exposure to the program, controlling for the period when the program is implemented across Algerian municipalities as an instrument for individual early childcare attendance. I estimate 2SLS regression analysis and employ a difference-in-difference strategy. I use two Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys conducted in 2006 and 2012. I find a positive effect of preschool on the cognitive development of children. In turn, the effect is only significant for mother with negative effect on the interaction between mother and children, which means that there is a substitution effect, mother use this time to do something else. These findings call for future research on parents’, especially mother’s, time use when their children attend early childcare.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in the United States and their consequences for infections, deaths, employment, wages, tax revenues and hospital costs.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID-19 and evaluate the impacts of stay-at-home orders on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document that COVID-19 increased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation, especially for younger workers, non-white, not married and less-educated workers. We built four indexes (exposure to disease, proximity to coworkers, work remotely and critical workers) to study the impact of COVID-19. We find that workers that can work remotely are significantly less likely to have their labor market outcomes affected, while workers working in proximity to coworkers are more affected. The unemployment effects are significantly larger for states that implemented stay-at-home orders. Our estimates suggest that, as of early May, these policies increased unemployment by nearly 4 percentage points, but reduced COVID-19 cases by 186,600-311,000, and deaths by 17,851-23,325. We apply our estimates to compute lost income ($18.6-$21.4 billion), reduced government income tax revenues ($3.4-$5.5 billion), increased unemployment insurance benefit payments ($5-$5.8 billion) and reduced hospital costs ($0.7-$1.2 billion). Despite the jobs lost, age adjusted value of statistical life suggests that stay-at-home orders are cost effective.
Featured image: Photo-by-Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference is held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
Day 2; Saturday. June 6, 2020. Keynote: Charles Manski (Northwestern University) Introduced by Session Chair Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University)
A selection of panelists: Bruce A. Weinberg, Sen Ma, Osea Giuntella, Jubo Jan, and Yubo Yan
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper analyzes the impact of both Covid-19 and the lockdown on happiness in South Africa which is significant.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Amidst the rapid global spread of Covid-19, many governments enforced country-wide lockdowns, with likely severe well-being consequences. The actions by governments triggered a debate on whether the well-being and economic costs of a lockdown surpass the benefits perceived from a lower infection rate. In this regard, South Africa is an extreme case: enforcing very stringent lockdown regulations, while amid an economic crisis. We analyze the impact of both Covid-19 and the lockdown on happiness. We use the Gross National Happiness Index to compare the determinants of happiness before and after the Covid-19 lockdown regulations. Further, we estimate the likelihood of happiness levels in 2020, reaching the average levels in 2019 using two models; one predicting the likelihood after the lockdown was enforced and the other if no lockdown regulations were in place. The results shed light on happiness outcomes in a scenario of lockdown versus no lockdown.
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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that in China institutional trust has been an important factor influencing adequate preventive behavior and seeking formal medical care during the COVID-19 outbreak.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the associations between institution trust and public response to the COVID-19 outbreak. An Internet-based, cross-sectional survey was administered on January 29, 2020 to the epicenter Hubei province, China. A total of 4,393 adults who ≥18 years of age and residing or working in the province of Hubei were included in the study. The majority of the participants expressed a higher level of trust in the information and preventive instructions provided by the central government than by the local government. Being under quarantine (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80–3.08) and having a high institutional trust score (OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.96–2.53) were both strong and significant determinants of higher preventive behavior scores. The majority of study participants (85.7%, n = 3,640) reported that they would seek hospital treatment if they suspected themselves to have been infected with COVID-19. Few of the participants from Wuhan (16.6%, n = 475) and those participants who were under quarantine (13.8%, n = 550) expressed an unwillingness to seek hospital treatment. Institutional trust is an important factor influencing adequate preventive behavior and seeking formal medical care during an outbreak.
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds a U-shaped relationship between recession and financial developmentusing panel data of 129 countries for 1990-2010.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented “Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing”, “Local Linear” and “Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares” regression methods along with a Sasabuchi test to verify the inverse U-shape to estimate the extreme point for the non-linear specification. We mainly found a nonlinear and thus U-shaped relationship between recession and financial development with a threshold effect of 1.1528, which validate financial development recessive and expansionary real impacts. The financial development process presents an expansionary impact for countries with financial performance less than 1.1528, and countries with financial performance above the threshold of 1.1528 present a recessionary impact of financial development. Moreover, we found that trade openness contributes to increasing recession independently to the estimation method. Thus during economic crises of recession, policymakers should hold-on regional integration along with globalization doctrines. On the contrary, fuels for South Asia (SASIA) and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries and financial openness for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries impact negatively recessions; countries who manage their oil production in a good manner will also reduce the probability and impact of recessions, and appear to have an expansionary real impact only. Thus, to fight against recession, SASIA and LAC countries should well manage oil production and usage while SSA countries may manage their financial openness. Verifying the robustness permit us to confirm the baseline and extended model specification findings in terms of coefficients sign and significance; furthermore, to highlight SSA, SASIA and LAC as the order of continental/regional importance in increasing magnitude. Finally, the semiparametric regression shows that the results of the parametric part converge with the previous results in general, and bear out with illustration the functional form of the nonlinear relation between recession and financial development.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference is held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the employment losses in April 2020 across various groups using the U.S. Current Population Survey.Individuals with less education and lower family income experienced much larger employment losses than their more educated and higher income counterparts. Hispanics and blacks were more adversely affected than whites.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: COVID-19 substantially decreased employment, but the effects vary among demographic and socioeconomic groups. We document the employment losses in April 2020 across various groups using the U.S. Current Population Survey. The unemployment rate understates employment losses. We focus on the percentage of the civilian population that is employed and at work. Young persons experienced the largest employment losses. Individuals with less education and lower family income experienced much larger employment losses than their more educated and higher income counterparts. Hispanics and blacks were more adversely affected than whites.
Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders’ compliance in the U.S. using cell phone data.Stay-at-home orders reduce mobility by about 8-10 percentage points; high-trust counties decrease their mobility significantly more than low-trust counties post-lockdown.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Better understanding whether and how communities respond to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders’ compliance in the U.S. Using cell phone data measuring changes in average distance traveled and non- essential visitation, we find that: stay-at-home orders reduce mobility by about 8-10 percentage points; high-trust counties decrease their mobility significantly more than low-trust counties post-lockdown; and counties with relatively more self-declared democrats decrease significantly more their mobility. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on compliance post-lockdown is especially large for trust in the press, and relatively smaller for trust in science, medicine or government.
Featured image: Photo-by-The-Coherent-Team-on-Unsplash
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that people’s mental health may have been severely affected by the lockdowns executed during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led many governments to implement lockdowns. While lockdowns may help to contain the spread of the virus, they may result in substantial damage to population well-being. We use Google Trends data to test whether the lockdowns implemented in Europe and America led to changes in well-being related topic search terms. Using differences-in-differences and a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the causal effects of lockdown, we find a substantial increase in the search intensity for boredom in Europe and the US. We also found a significant increase in searches for loneliness, worry and sadness, while searches for stress, suicide and divorce on the contrary fell. Our results suggest that people’s mental health may have been severely affected by the lockdown.
A related paper using Google Trends has studied the health and wellbeing consequences of the Great Recession:
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the causal impact of maternal domestic violence on the nutritional status of young children.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we empirically estimate the causal impact of maternal domestic violence on the nutritional status of her children aged below five years. Using detailed dataset from the current and fourth round of the National Family Health Survey, we find robust evidence that violence experienced by mothers at the hands of her husband significantly increases the likelihood of her children being malnourished. When we focus on identifying the pathways through which domestic violence affect child health outcomes, we find that while domestic violence primarily affects child health via deterioration in maternal health, neglect of children in terms of inadequate provision of essential child care also seem to matter. The results from the heterogeneity analysis finally suggest that the detrimental effect of such violence is significantly less pronounced for children born to mothers who are currently working and are thus empowered.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We provide a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers.
We are pleased to announce that the conference will feature keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference will be held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
GLO Policy Brief No. 3 – Special theme: COVID-19 and policy implications
COVID-19 and the Consequences for Free Trade
by Ewa Björling, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Magnus Lodefalk & Fredrik Sjöholm
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global trade, investment and value chains. There is a risk that newly imposed barriers to international trade and mobility will become permanent. Research shows that veiled protectionism in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic would be associated with greater risks and impede the economic recovery needed to avoid a new economic depression. We argue that failing to reboot free trade and to restore global value chains could aggravate an already difficult and delicate situation in regard to global economic development and poverty reduction. In order to reboot globalization, however, there needs to be a new approach. Simply going over old ground would be insufficient. ____________________
Ewa Björling
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou
Magnus Lodefalk
Fredrik Sjöholm
Ewa Björling, MD, Associate Professor of Virology, Sweden’s Minister for Trade 2007-2014.
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, PhD, CEO of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.
Magnus Lodefalk, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics, Örebro University; Ratio Institute, Sweden; and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization.
Fredrik Sjöholm, PhD, Professor of International Economics, Lund University, and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden.
What we should know
Restrictions and lockdowns to address the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted international markets and global value chains. The travel and trade restrictions imposed by many countries are extreme and unusual both in nature and their implementation, wreaking havoc on global trade and investment flows. These restrictions have been adopted despite lack of evidence of their effectiveness. Some measures go against the guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Protectionism and anti-globalization tides have been rising already before the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brexit and the China-U.S. trade war, as two examples. The policy response to the pandemic now risks to make the situation worse and constitutes a major disruption to global trade, investment and value chains. Early economic indicators suggest that this disruption is severely hurting growth and employment (Gopinath 2020).
Global poverty and inequality are grounds for justifiable concerns. Research suggests that failing to ensure free and predictable markets would be associated with significant risks to poverty and inequality.
Many policies to combat the coronavirus pandemic are actually causing both short-term problems for fighting the pandemic, as well as risks in regard to economic recovery, employment, development and poverty reduction over the medium and long term (Evenett 2020, Hoekman et al 2020, Zimmermann et al. 2020).
Difficulties in getting supplies of medical equipment have triggered an increased interest in de-globalizing value chains (Miroudot 2020). Already before the pandemic, companies and countries were considering a regionalization or even a nationalization of global value chains. This due to a more adverse trade policy environment, rising wages in manufacturing strongholds and technological advances, e.g., in automation.
The state of free trade in the wake of COVID-19
Unilaterally imposing high travel and trade barriers creates uncertainty for exporters and importers of goods and services, as well as for foreign investors. Research indicates that uncertainty about the stability of the rules of the game has a major negative impact on trade and investment, beyond the barriers imposed by the rules themselves (see, e.g., Handley and Limao 2013).
Temporary policies risk becoming permanent. They could become precedents for trade barriers and unilateralism in the future.
Asymmetric timing for when countries reopen and assymetric epidemiological strategies, pose real risks of triggering protectionism (Bown 2020). For example, when one country is back to full production and shipping, countries that still have not reopened their economies will likely face rising pressure to ‘protect’ domestic businesses.
Less-developed countries are more exposed to the risks associated with a failure to reboot and revitalize international trade, investment and value chains. They often face additional difficulties in handling the pandemic itself because of their relatively weaker health care systems. Existing and new trade barriers, such as export restrictions on medical products and food, will exacerbate this situation (Hoekman et al. 2020). Moreover, capital is now fleeing from poor to richer countries. The poorest and most debt-ridden countries can thus be hit twice in the form of the pandemic, and globalization in reverse.
A reboot and a new approach to globalization is needed
In the short term, a coordinated approach among the major economies on measures to address both the pandemic and its economic consequences are needed. A first step should be to tear down the border and trade barriers put up in the wake of the pandemic (Stellinger et al 2020).
In the short to medium term, it is necessary to formulate a strategy to reduce the risks from asymmetric timing in reopening and from differences in the fight against the pandemic.
A head-on measure would be to introduce a new free trade and investment agreement that abolish all tariffs and other barriers to trade and investment in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other equipment used to prevent or combat pandemics (Bown 2020b, Stellinger et al 2020).
Business leaders should act to encourage more resilient and sustainable global value chains, for example by having more suppliers, warehouses and using modern technology to monitor the chains and their resilience in real time (Miroudot 2020). This would be a win-win for the climate and for economic growth.
Governments must refrain from top-down attempts to address current and future difficulties of getting supplies by reshoring production of various goods and services (Stellinger et al. 2020). There is ample research on the harmfulness of import-substitution policies.
In the longer term, countries need to safeguard both global health and prosperity through common strategies and commitments, concrete measures for future crises and mechanisms for consultations. New and even more serious pandemics cannot be excluded. Countries will have to be able to act quickly, in a coordinated fashion and in a transparent way.
A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism.
Mechanisms for applying and enforcing stringent requirements on countries to live up to standards and obligations put in place to minimize the risk of pandemics should be evaluated.
The concept of sustainability within the global trading system could be extended to encompass not only environmental and social aspects, but also aspects that more clearly impact public health and epidemiological risks. Increased cross-institutional links between bodies such as the WHO and the WTO should also be created to promote knowledge exchange and technical assistance.
The policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted international markets. However, simply restoring free trade would mean ignoring massive human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism. Leaders and policymakers must make concerted efforts to: carefully lift restrictions on travel and trade while protecting health; commit to liberalize essential trade for fighting pandemics; address how to deal with calls for protecting domestic industries in the presence of asymmetric economic reopening; and sustain international yet resilient value chains. The aim should be to develop the international trading system to both reduce the risks of pandemics and protectionism. __________________
References
Bown, C. (2020a). “COVID-19 could bring down the trading system: How to stop protectionism from running amok.”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.
Hoekman, B.M., Fiorini, M. and A. Yildirim (2020). “Export restrictions: a negative-sum policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.”, EUI RSCAS Working Paper 2020/23.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that individuals who sleep for at least 6 hours have improved mental health and are less likely to have suicidal thoughts.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: One in every six U.S. adults suffers from mental health problems. Mental illnesses, as measured in disability-adjusted life years, account for nearly 6.2% of the total disease burden worldwide and are considered to be one of the leading causes of death by injury, second only to road accidents. For the year 2010 alone, the estimated global direct and indirect economic cost of mental illnesses was reported to be US$2.5 trillion and this is expected to double by 2030. With a “20% increase in service coverage for severe mental disorder”, suggested by the World Health Assembly by the year 2020 for the WHO Member states, examining alternative behavioral changes to reduce mental health problems are worth examining. Using the detailed National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health dataset and applying a wide range of econometric techniques we study the causal impact of sleeping pattern on various subjective wellbeing indicators among young U.S. adults. We find robust evidence that individuals who sleep for at least 6 hours have improved mental health and are less likely to have suicidal thoughts. Additionally, our estimates highlight that those who sleep early have better mental health and reduced probability of having suicidal thoughts or going to a counselor. Waking up early is also found to result in better physical health and lower probability of having suicidal thoughts.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that intergroup contact reduces the prejudice of both Hindu and Muslim participants toward members of the other religion, but most of the effects disappear after six months.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We study the potential for pleasant and cooperative contact to reduce preconceived prejudice between religious groups in the context of India. We randomly assign Hindus and Muslims into groups, in which they interact over the course of a week-long vocational training program. We find that intergroup contact reduces the prejudice of both Hindu and Muslim participants toward members of the other religion one week after the training program finished. While we find that most of the positive effect of intergroup contact on reducing prejudice dissipates after six months, the baseline results for Hindu attitudes toward Muslims are persistent.
Social distancing requirements associated with COVID-19 have led to school closures affecting more than 90 percent of the world’s learners: 1.5 billion children and young people. A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the expected earnings loss resulting from this is equivalent to 15 percent of future gross domestic product.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Social distancing requirements associated with COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to school closures. In mid-April, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization reported that 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting more than 90 percent of the world’s learners: 1.5 billion children and young people. The closures are expected to reduce learning and will lead to future losses in earnings and labor productivity. Schooling attainment leads to increased earnings. What is not known is how much earnings will decline due to the school closures. Starting with the fact that every year of schooling equates to 8-9 percent in additional future earnings, this paper uses the number of months of education closures to estimate the loss in marginal future earnings. The findings show that the school closures reduce future earnings, and this loss is equivalent to 15 percent of future gross domestic product. The school closures will have a large and long-lasting impact on the earnings of future workers. It is also likely that students from low-income countries will be affected most. These estimates are conservative, assuming that the closures will end after four months and school quality will not suffer.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
Why has Slovakia, a small open economy, done so well with low mortality rates in response to the crisis? And what to do now in face of an expected huge recession? Some insights from an interview with top policy advisor Martin Kahanec.
Some core messages of the interview:
Slovakia has done a tremendous job stopping the spreading of the virus, for instance the low mortality rate put the country at the very last place in the ranking in Europe.
The success can be traced back not so much to a rigorous, but to a fast and effective response.
But the Slovak economy is paying a huge price for the shutdowns in the country and among the trade partners.
Income maintenance schemes to strengthen the demand side and measures to preserve liquidity to grease the wheels of the economy are essential for a fast recovery.
My role in the advisory body of the Slovak government is to evaluate crisis management procedures and risks and assess possible measures and their effects.
GLO Fellow and GLO Cluster Lead “Labor Mobility” Martin Kahanec (Central European University and Bruegel) is also the Director of the Slovak Think Tank CELSI. He was just appointed by his government to the Slovak COVID-19 Economic Crisis Council. He reports on the Slovak experiences and the way to recovery.
Middle photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
Interview
GLO:How well did Slovakia get through the COVID-19 crisis in terms of infections and death cases?
Martin Kahanec: Slovakia has done a tremendous job stopping the spreading of the virus. After more than 11 weeks since its first case of COVID-19, recorded on March 6, 2020, as of 25 May 2020 Slovakia had only 1,513 cases (of which only 163 active). Its 5 deaths per million inhabitants (28 in total) put Slovakia at the distant last place in the ranking of European countries by this mortality measure. For comparison, during the same period (eleven weeks into the pandemic) similarly-sized Ireland recorded more than 16 times as many cases and more than 55 times as many deaths and Denmark more than 7 times as many cases and nearly 20 times as many deaths. In spite of local outbursts in care homes and marginalized Roma settlements, the “first wave” of the pandemic in Slovakia was only a wavelet, as the country has to date recorded only 6 days with more than 50 new cases.
For the record, this result is not an issue of (the lack of) testing or isolation of the country: per million of inhabitants Slovakia has done fewer tests than Denmark, but more than Sweden, France, or the Netherlands, and just about as many as Finland. Slovakia is a small open economy with a very busy international transportation system, and the share of cross-border workers is the highest in Europe, at about 5.2% of its labor force – many of whom work in care homes and touristic resorts in Austria and northern Italy. Slovaks spend on average more nights abroad than Czechs, Italians, or Spaniards. Bratislava and Vienna are among the closest national capitals in the world, just about 65 km apart, Czechia is about the same distance from Bratislava, and Hungary, just like Austria, share borders with Bratislava city.
GLO: Is this success the result of a more rigorous Slovak response strategy?
Martin Kahanec: Perhaps not as much rigorous as enacted early on. Within ten days since the first case, Slovakia had shut down schools (in Bratislava within less than a week), introduced mandatory face masks in public transportation (first in Europe), closed non-essential shops, introduced border controls and mandatory quarantine for people returning from abroad (within a week), and shut down international air as well as bus and train passenger services. An important factor has been the impressive compliance of the general public, with face masks becoming the norm immediately, with politicians and television celebrities as well as news anchors leading by example and wearing facemasks on all occasions. Several mistakes have been made, but overall the system of measures has worked effectively.
GLO: What were the consequences in terms of GDP losses?
Martin Kahanec: Slovakia is paying a hefty price for the shutdowns in the country and among our trade partners. Primarily due to weakened foreign demand, in Q1 2020 Slovak GDP shrank by 3.9% y-o-y, which was one of the largest drops in Europe. Fitch has downgraded Slovakia from A+ to A on May 8. In April 2020 the unemployment rate increased by 1.38 percentage points y-o-y. On the other hand, the government is now gradually removing the restrictions, and the automotive sector, one of the backbones of the Slovak economy, is rebounding, with the four large car making plants in Slovakia (VW, PSA, Kia, Land Rover) gradually returning to their capacity.
GLO: What can be done to foster a fast recovery?
Martin Kahanec: During the trough of the crisis the government should help those who have been hit the hardest and lost their livelihoods. This moral obligation is strengthened by the fact that keeping especially the workers with the highest risks of spreading the virus at home reduces the negative externality their continued activity would inflict on the rest of the society and that, for this reason, some sectors were shut down directly by the government. For a swift recovery, as soon as the epidemiological situation permits, workers should be allowed to return to jobs and children to schools. Effective testing, tracing, and isolating of the cases is needed to avoid a possible second wave.
Income maintenance schemes to strengthen the demand side and measures to preserve liquidity to grease the wheels of the economy are essential. For Slovakia, as a small open economy, coordination with its key trading partners and, especially, at the European level is of key importance.
But it is important to understand that the crisis will make some products, services, or even sectors obsolete, and it will open new opportunities and avenues for innovative economic activities at the same time. Therefore, what will matter in the long run is how the measures adopted will facilitate the reallocation of resources to the most promising economic endeavors, rather than cementing them in those, which have no economic future.
GLO: You have been just appointed to the Slovak COVID-19 Economic Crisis Council; what is the role of this council?
Martin Kahanec: The Economic Crisis Council is a temporary advisory and coordinating body at the Ministry of Finance during the COVID-19 crisis. Its purpose is to evaluate crisis management procedures and risks for the development of the Slovak economy and assess possible measures and their effects. We elaborate on specific proposals in response to the economic crisis caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic in Slovakia.
************* With Martin Kahanec spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the stronger the employment protection for regular contracts, the smaller is earnings mobility, although the effect is stronger among women of high reproductive age.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Elena Bárcena-Martín & Salvador Pérez-Moreno
Author Abstract: This paper explores potential gendered effects of employment protection on earnings mobility, differentiating between upward and downward movements. We conduct a micro-macro mobility analysis for 23 European countries over the economic downturn period 2008–2014. The results confirm that, overall, the higher the protection for regular contracts, the lower the earnings mobility (either upwards or downwards) although the effect is stronger among women of high reproductive age. Nevertheless, protection for temporary employment seems to be only associated with reduced downward earnings mobility when considering transitions into and out of employment, with no gender differential effect.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that some teleworkers earn a wage premium; they also spend less time on commuting and grooming activities but more time on leisure and household production activities and more time with family on work-at-home days.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Remote work is rapidly increasing in the United States. Using data on full-time wage and salary workers from the 2017–2018 American Time Use Survey Leave and Job Flexibilities Module, this paper examines the characteristics of teleworkers, the effects of teleworking on wages, and differences in time-use patterns between office and work-at-home workdays. We find that some teleworkers earn a wage premium, but it varies by occupation, gender, parental status, and teleworking intensity. Teleworkers also spend less time on commuting and grooming activities but more time on leisure and household production activities and more time with family on work-at-home days.
May 28, 2020: Don DeVoretz (*May 28, 1942; + March 14, 2020), a prominent migration researcher, GLO Fellow and long-term collaborator of the GLO President, Klaus F. Zimmermann, would have been 78 today. We bemoan and remember a great scientist and friend.
Don DeVoretz obtained his doctorate in Economics from the University of Wisconsin (Madison) in 1968. He was the co-director of the Centre of Excellence for the Study of Immigration (1996-2007) and Professor of Economics at Simon Fraser University (since 1968) and Professor Emeritus (since 2010).
Don DeVoretz has held visiting positions at Duke University, University of Ibadan (Nigeria), University of the Philippines, University of Wisconsin, and the Norwegian School of Economics.
Don DeVoretz was named the Willy Brandt Professor in 2004 at IMER, Malmö University.
Don DeVoretz, a friend of the late Julian Simon, gave the first Julian Simon Lecture at IZA in 2004.
Selective Publications
Don DeVoretz, Nahikari Irastorza. Economic Theories of Citizenship Ascension. In: Ayelet Shachar, Rainer Bauböck, Irene Bloemraad, Maarten Vink (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Citizenship. Oxford 2017.
Don J. DeVoretz. The Economics of Immigrant Citizenship Ascension. In: Amelie Constant, Klaus F. Zimmermann, International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, Edward Elgar 2013.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Martin Kahanec, Amelie F. Constant, Don J. DeVoretz, Liliya Gataullina, Anzelika Zaiceva. Study on the Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities. Report for the High Level Advisory Group on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities and the European Commission, Bonn 2008, IZA Research Report No. 16.
Don J. DeVoretz. Immigration Policy: Methods of Economic Assessment. International Migration Review, 2006, 40 (2), 390-418. (Based on the Julian Simon Lecture 2004.)
Don J. DeVoretz, Samuel A. Laryea. Canadian Immigration Experience: Any Lessons for Europe? In: : K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
Don J. DeVoretz (Ed.). Diminishing Returns: The Economics of Canada’s Recent Immigration Policy. C. D. Howe Institute 1995.
Ather Akbari, Don J. DeVoretz. The Substitutability of Foreign Born Labour in Canadian Production: Circa 1980. Canadian Journal of Economics, 25(3): 604-614. 1992.
Interviews with Associates
Below are two interviews with close associates of Don DeVoretz:
GLO Fellow Ather Akbari is Professor of Economics at Saint Mary’s University in Canada and Chair of the Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity. He is a former PhD student of Devoretz.
GLO Fellow Pieter Bevelander is a Professor at Malmö University and Director of the Malmö Institute for Studies of Migration, Diversity and Welfare. He is a former research partner of Devoretz.
Ather Akbari
Pieter Bevelander
Interview with Ather Akbari
GLO: How was Don as a teacher and PhD supervisor?
Ather Akbari: I wrote my doctoral thesis, entitled “Some Economic Impacts of Immigrant Population in Canada” under Don’s supervision. At that time (1980s), there was a paucity of empirical research on Canadian immigration, but interest in impact of immigration was growing in public policy circles, as well as in general public. Under Don’s supervision, I really learned to communicate results of an academic research for both academic and nonacademic audience. Results of my thesis attracted a lot of attention in news media and in public policy circles and I owe it a lot to my training under Don.
GLO: What was your joint prominent paper in the Canadian Journal of Economics about?
Ather Akbari: This paper entitled “Substitutability of Immigrants in Canadian Production Circa 1980” (not a part of my thesis) was the first in Canada to assess if immigrants displaced Canadian born workers in Canadian industries. Using data from Canadian census, we estimated a translog production function and found that although there was displacement in some industrial sectors, overall there was no displacement effect.
GLO: Migration research was his focus, can you outline an example from his work?
Ather Akbari: I think Don’s most important contribution to migration research are his many contributions to the economics of citizenship. He has published conceptual and empirical research in this area. He also co-edited a book on the issue with Pieter Bevelander (Malmö University) with a preface written by Irene Bloemraad (Berkley University). This volume had contributions from Europe and North America. Main focus of the book was to present evidence on the impact of citizenship status on economic performance and contributions of immigrants in the host country. Very important policy implications as rights for citizenship ascension vary much across countries.
GLO: What was his contribution to policy advice, in particular to Canadian migration policy?
Ather Akbari: In the late 1980s, the Canadian government undertook a demographic review of Canadian population. All forecasts based on the demographics of the time indicated that Canada was moving towards a population distribution which will be more heavily skewed towards the elderly. This could could cause economic and labor market challenges. Don was very passionate in recommending to the Canadian government that it should liberalize its immigration policy as one important tool to meet these challenges. He was also in favor of attracting international students and for liberalizing rules for their permanent residency. Over time, Canadian immigration policy became more liberal. He was also very much in favor of immigration policy based on evidence-based research. He promoted an increased availability of data for researchers and was among the proponents of the use of administrative data in connection with survey data (especially the Longitudinal Immigration Database, IMDB).
GLO: Don was increasingly worried about the future of migration, what do you think are the major challenges ahead?
Ather Akbari: Globalization has resulted in greater movement of goods and people around the world and has resulted in great benefits. However, many have also been hurt, economically and politically, by unequal distribution of these benefits. In the West, this has led to the current wave of nationalism which threatens free movements of goods and of people. World leaders, academic researchers and news media need to address this seriously.
Interview with Pieter Bevelander
GLO: How did you get connected with Don?
Pieter Bevelander: I met Don DeVoretz in Spring 2004. He had just taken up the Willy Brandt Guest Professorshipat the Department of International Migration and Ethnic Relations at Malmö University. He felt a bit lost among all non-economists that were working there. I was myself just on a post doc visit at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, and met him when I was on a visit. During his first weeks in Malmö he had read my dissertation on the employment integration of immigrants in Sweden and showed especially large interest into the citizenship analysis. Further that Spring, he organized in Malmö a multidisciplinary workshop on the consequences of citizenship ascension in different countries and from different disciplinary angles.
GLO: You published together the edited volume The Economics of Citizenship. How did this project evolve?
Pieter Bevelander: Since the workshop in 2004 and his time in Malmö we slowly started to have conversations on a volume on the economic effects of citizenship in different countries. Don was a Research Fellow at IZA and met often its Director in Bonn. Through this network it was possible to meet either in Bonn or on his way into Europe in Malmö. We presented our ideas and papers at conferences and started to screen possible researchers for being part of the volume. We published then the book in 2008.
GLO: How has this project affected your both careers and the profession?
Pieter Bevelander: For us both, Don and me, this volume has been very valuable. It was followed by subsequent articles, handbook chapters, policy papers for think tanks and government institutions, all analyzing why immigrants take up the citizenship of another country and whether this leads to increased economic integration in new environment. Don, for instance, was involved in policy recommendations through the think tank Center for American Progress in 2014 about how to find a way for allowing undocumented migrants to become full citizens in the US. Today, I am an advisor for the Swedish government’s investigation about changing citizenship regulations.
NOTE *********** With Ather Akbari & Pieter Bevelander spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
Klaus F. Zimmermann: Don DeVoretz has been a academic companion for most parts of my life as a migration researcher.
We met 1992 when we both participated at the famous migration workshop, Herbert Giersch organized in Vancouver for the Egon-Sohmen-Foundation. (Herbert Giersch, Ed., Economic Aspects of International Migration, Springer Berlin. Heidelberg, 1994.)
He visited me during my tenure as Professor of Economics at the University of Munich and was part of the migration network I had created at the time as Programme Director Migration for the Centre of Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London. A CEPR conference on “European Migration – What Do We Know?”, which I organized 1997 at the University of Munich mobilized the network which enabled the publication of K.F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration – What Do We Know? Oxford University Press, 2005.
After I created IZA, the Institute for the Study of Labor, as the Founding Director in 1998 in Bonn, Don DeVoretz and the migration network moved with me, and I appreciated his experienced support for two decades. Within this period, he was instrumental in large research projects for the Volkswagen Foundation (“The Economics and Persistence of Migrant Ethnicity”, 2005 – 2008) and the European Commission (“Study on Social and Labour Market Integration of Ethnic Minorities”, 2006 – 2007). He helped building up and developing the IZA migration network together with Amelie Constant and Barry Chiswick. He started the prominent IZA Julian Simon Lecture series in 2004, and was a regular visitor throughout the period.
Don DeVoretz stayed in contact with email exchange and ambitious research projects until earlier this year. We all miss his friendship, sharp thinking and helpful advice.
2007 Washington DC Don DeVoretz next to Sol Polachek (right) Upper part above left: Pieter Bevelander
2005 Ethnicity Meeting Bonn Don DeVoretz with Klaus F. Zimmermann
Recently, the WageIndicator Foundation had announced the Continuous Global Online Survey ‘Living and Working in Corona Times’. (See also the report in the GLO NEWS on March 29.) Two months later, the team has already collected 14,000 valid observations from 72 countries, with much more to come. The WageIndicator Foundation is led by GLO Fellow Paulien Osse as the Director, is a long-term partner of the GLO. (For more information about Director Osse, see our 2019 interview.) The right moment to interview Paulien Osse about the new venture, to give a progress report, and outline difficulties, challenges and the huge potentials.
The Continuous Global Online Survey ‘Living and Working in Corona Times’
GLO: Any global crisis needs short-term data for nowcasting. How can WageIndicator help?
Paulien Osse:WageIndicator tries to help in two ways. First, we started a special Corona – Work Life Survey on March 23. Two months later it already collected 14,000 valid observations from 72 countries. Each day the state of affairs as covered by this living & working survey in corona-times is updated and shown in refreshed infographics, global, regional and country-specific. The survey is ongoing, 24/7, and will last as long as the pandemic is raging. Results show increased anxiety and dissatisfaction across the board, also in countries which remained almost untouched by the coronavirus, but with lockdowns in force.
Asecond global survey (which we run since 2014), mapping cost of living-levels, may become more and more relevant. Face-to-face data collection on streets and market places is not everywhere possible, but we do as we always do online and now also include web-based food shops. We understand that during the pandemic there are more online food shops, and people get more digitalised, EVERYWHERE. We want to show price levels as per July first world-wide in an attempt to picture the corona-impact on the cost of living and living wage-levels. As far as we can see now we will cover 120 countries with prices and living wages. 12 interns from FLAME University help us out!
These are our nowcasting contributions.
GLO: You execute a special Covid work life survey for “everybody” and one for HR. What do you want to achieve, what is the focus? Paulien Osse: Generally speaking, we want to provide insight into the impact of the coronacrisis on the work/life balance of working individuals and their families. We assume there will be a long lasting aftermath, with less jobs, increased job insecurity, and a great variety in the consequences for different occupational groups, male/female, formal/informal employment etc. How will this work out for each of us? To be precise: in the survey you can select different contract types (for employees, workers, informals, and employers). You may choose from 1,700 occupations.
Our HR-survey is directed at (big) companies that have already participated in earlier compliance research, in Indonesia, Ethiopia and Uganda, both in the garment and flower industry. We now combine it with questions regarding health & safety and company policies to survive the coronacrisis. This data is shared each fortnight with trade union partners in these countries, as input for bipartite and tripartite negotiations and consultations. Highly in demand, since precise.
GLO: You have many country teams, how do they work and what problems do they face?
Paulien Osse: Like everybody else, our team members have to comply with lockdown regulations. Practically this has meant that, to varying degrees, all stayed at home much of the time, starting at the end of March beginning of April. For some this was a slight inconvenience. I personally work from home already for many years, so my routine did not change much. Others, like in India, lost help in the household or food delivery that they were used to. Now they shop and cook and clean and work and look after the kids all at once Some are not even allowed to leave the house (45 degrees), or get medication for their ailing mother in an emergency. Another colleague saw her boy friend confined to the oil rig where he works. Forever it seems. There are many stories like these and worse, like in Mozambique where corona is for Rogerio, our Portuguese content manager, just another nuisance on top of terrorist acts and civil war. Very unnerving, all this.
But as teams used to working and communicating online, we thrive. We are not beginners online, like many others have become just now. We have meetings more frequently, shorter, more efficient. And we Zoom-socialize on Fridays at a fixed time, sharing fun, frustrations and small victories, and the Italians serve Prosecco.
But, as already mentioned, the face-to-face data collection unfortunately has to be shelved for another few weeks, like in Bangladesh. This blocks progress, where we were about to embark on a nationwide wage and cost of living survey.
GLO: How do you judge the productivity of your teams in comparison to normal times?
Paulien Osse: Team members travel less – I mean NOT. So there are many more hours for productive work. Also, we see each other more frequently for online consultations. Thanks to the growing quality of Zoom, I must say. Because of all this practice we have faster, shorter meetings, more to the point. So, result: a nice set of new projects! After 2 months however, I notice that this higher gear holds the risk of exhaustion. But when WageIndicator offers an escape from depressing living conditions under severe restrictions of movement, ‘take a rest’ is easier said than done. Some of us haven’t seen sunshine for many weeks.
GLO: Can the surveys identify losers and winners of the crisis, and what can we learn?
Paulien Osse: Our first scientific report from Pablo Pedraza, Martin Guzi and Kea Tijdens (see GLO DP # 544) covers the data collected in the first 6 weeks since the launch of the corona-survey. We must be very cautious given the paucity of data. Yet, on the most general level of outcomes we can say that there are no winners of the crisis, just losers. Working people do not feel less, but more anxious as a result of state-imposed emergency measures. Having to stay home and wear protective gear when going out, makes people not just more anxious but also more dissatisfied.
Not surprisingly, reduced income or prospects also increases anxiousness and dissatisfaction. Changes in the workload and/or routine have the same effect: an increase of tasks, but a decrease of the workload too, makes people more anxious and dissatisfied.
Our researchers conclude that their findings are relevant for policy-makers who design paths to recovery. They endorse the pursued maintenance of employment for as many people as possible: ‘protecting jobs implies the protection of citizen’s well-being’. They say this applies to the lockdown period studied, but also to the much needed recovery.
GLO: Covid-19 has affected first the developed world, but now reaches the developing economies: can you trace differences in the major challenges?
Paulien Osse: The global lockdown was initiated to protect the infected, more developed parts of the world, first and fast. Several months into the pandemic it now becomes clear that the less developed and least-infected countries are paying a heavy economic price just the same. In Mozambique for instance, with very low corona-infection and zero death rates – but people report that they have lost their job last month. In Madagascar, also almost corona-free and no corona deaths reported, even 1 in 5 respondents say they lost their job already. A similar situation can be seen in Vietnam, where close to 1 in 10 respondents report to have lost their job as a consequence of the corona lockdown. Yet, corona-related death rates are zero in Vietnam. The figures are from the first week of May.
Keep in mind that working from home is an option for the higher educated. Working from home might be cool, but no fun with bad connections, and/or small children around. So in general for developing countries, hardly any corona, yet; but they suffer just the same, if not more.
GLO: Is working from home different between the sexes, e.g. is the burden on females larger and rising?
Paulien Osse: Women report anxiety more often than men, living with a partner makes people more satisfied and less anxious, but having children in the household makes no difference in this respect. But if prevailing gender pay gaps, prejudice and role divisions in the household are anything to go by, one may assume that women are hit harder than men. Also, they usually earn less and have smaller or less protected jobs. Therefore, prospects are not bright and single mothers in particular will need additional support in the recovery period.
By the end of April most respondents in our survey had reported to believe that they will still have their job next month, however 1 in 3 was afraid to lose income in May. There might be a relation with the fact that more respondents around the world report that they got less, instead of more work. But it is too early to measure the real and lasting gender-specific impact, or for female dominated occupations.
GLO: Are older people more lonely and unhappy?
Paulien Osse: More lonely, we cannot say. But surprisingly, 50 plus respondents, though more vulnerable, report lower dissatisfaction and anxiety than the average from our survey.
GLO:How do you provide access for researchers to use country level and individual data?
Paulien Osse: The normal channels may be used, they are open to researchers. Daily update of data, check the project page. Daily fresh maps. Daily fresh graphs.
GLO:How satisfying is it for you to see the project prospering?
Paulien Osse: Fun! So far, we are there to stay. However: The reason for our corona-survey does not make one happy. Neither do the economic prospects for the near future, also and maybe more so in the developing world. Now the return of massive poverty threatens.
Our WageIndicator teams, also and especially from developing countries, are not so easily shocked. We are an experienced lot. For us the joy is to show how fast, lean and precise we can be, working remote. Believing also helps: our data may contribute! We try and keep our spirits high. As one out of 25 recently recruited interns from FLAME university noticed: “WageIndiators are hard working people from all around the world, very inspiring”.
Does the the forced removal of undocumented immigrants from the United States increases violent crime in Mexican municipalities?A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that municipalities with greater geographic exposure to deportation flows have indeed higher violent crime.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We study whether the forced removal of undocumented immigrants from the United States increases violent crime in Mexican municipalities. Using municipal panel data on homicide rates matched with annual deportation flows from the United States to Mexico, we assess whether municipalities with repatriation points experience higher violent crime with surges in deportation flows. We consistently find that municipalities with greater geographic exposure to deportation flows have higher violent crime. The effects are mostly driven by increments in homicide rates of young males and minors.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public in response to the coronavirus crisis increases dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increases feelings of anxiety.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Pablo de Pedraza, Martin Guzi & Kea Tijdens
Pablo de Pedraza
Martin Guzi
Kea Tijdens
Author Abstract: The rising numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, prolonged lockdowns, substantial restrictions on public life and an economic downturn negatively affect personal well-being. In this paper, we explore COVID- 19-related determinants of life dissatisfaction and feelings of anxiety using data collected from March 23 to April 30 2020 in 25 advanced and developing countries from four continents. We find that persons with better general health, with a paid job, living with a partner, daily exercising and those avoiding loneliness report less dissatisfaction and less anxiety. The presence of children and a pet in the household has no effect. Women report anxiety feelings more often than men. Older people report lower dissatisfaction and anxiety, remarkable given that the older population is among the most vulnerable in the current pandemic. Jobrelated changes due to COVID-19 such as income reduction and increase or decrease of workload are associated with more dissatisfaction and more anxiety. In reaction to the pandemic governments have adopted a range of measures. We show that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public increase dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increase feelings of anxiety. We find that a growing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increases dissatisfaction and anxiety but that this effect levels off with a higher number of cases. Our findings support targeted government policies to preserve economic security, and increase stability of employment.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that the rising trend in female labor force participation in Australia largely depends on changes in real wages, population composition changes, and changes in labor supply preference parameters.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Female labor force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labor force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labor supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labor force participation.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes in Canada, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. Reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour mar- ket outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
T. Paul Schultz is the Malcolm K Brachman Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University. With a BA (1961) from Swarthmore College and a PhD (1966) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he spent most of his academic life at Yale University (since 1974).
He is one of the most outstanding population and development economists of our time. His empirical work has had a huge impact on the profession, in particular he helped to establish economic demography. His research has covered fertility and family planning in developing countries and the fertility transition, household models dealing with health and mortality issues, inequality, migration and gender.
At Yale University, he directed the Economic Growth Center from 1983 – 1996.
T. Paul Schultz is a GLO Fellow since the beginning.
He was a keynote speaker at Yale University on May 11-13, 2018 for the second biennial conference of the China Health Policy and Management Society (CHPAMS), focusing on advances in health policy and health care in China and the United States, an event which was supported by the GLO and organized by GLO Cluster Lead Xi Chen.
For a decade (1991 – 2001), he acted as an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and (since 2002) still provides his advice and support as an Associate Editor of this journal.
On May 24, 2020, T. Paul Schultz is celebrating his 80th birthday; the GLO and the Journal of Population Economics express their respect for his immense lifelong achievements and their huge gratitude for the tremendous support received.
Congratulations and best wishes for a healthy, enjoyable and productive future!
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the impact of Covid-19 on working from home and the consequences in Italy: working from home tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The recent global COVID-19 pandemic forced most of governments in developed countries to introduce severe measures limiting people mobility freedom in order to contain the infection spread. Consequently, working from home (WFH) procedures became of great importance for a large part of employees, since they represent the only option to both continue working and keep staying home. Based on influence function regression methods, our paper explores the role of WFH attitude across labour income distribution in Italy. Results show that increasing WFH attitudes of occupations would lead to a rise of wage inequality among Italian employees. The opportunity of WFH tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for welfarestate channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. It argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, contribute to this.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. This comes as a surprise: many scholars have anticipated an upsurge in entrepreneurship, and expected an “entrepreneurial economy” to replace the post-WW2 “managed” economy. Instead of the “entrepreneurial economy” what has come into being may perhaps better be labelled the “ossified economy.” This paper starts by document the decline. It then critically presents the current explanations offered in the literature. While having merit, these explanations are proximate and supply-side oriented. Given these shortcomings, this paper contributes a new perspective: it argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, are also responsible. Implications for entrepreneurship scholarship are drawn.
A new GLO Discussion Paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Household consumption surveys do not typically cover refugee populations, and poverty estimates for refugees are rare. This paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad, by combining United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees survey and administrative data. The proposed method offers poverty estimates based on administrative data that fall within a 95 percent margin of poverty estimates based on survey consumption data. This result is robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error term. The method outperforms common targeting methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method currently used by humanitarian organizations in Chad.
A new GLO Discussion Paper replicates two published articles by seven independent research teams each to document the huge variety of different research strategies chosen and their large differences in outcomes.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Researchers make hundreds of decisions about data collection, preparation, and analysis in their research. We use a many-analysts approach to measure the extent and impact of these decisions. Two published causal empirical results are replicated by seven replicators each. We find large differences in data preparation and analysis decisions, many of which would not likely be reported in a publication. No two replicators reported the same sample size. Statistical significance varied across replications, and for one of the studies the effect’s sign varied as well. The standard deviation of estimates across replications was 3-4 times the typical reported standard error.
Like in the financial market crisis, the world struggles again in the #coronavirus crisiswith data needs to proper respond to the challenges. Why are data so important, and why are social media data not a simple solution? Some insights from an interview with data scientist Pablo de Pedraza.
Some core messages of the interview:
Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. The data flow in a data economyis semicircular – from households and firms to data holders, but not back.
If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount.
Many agents that could generate valuable knowledge do not have enough access to data.
The more citizens are responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus.
In a data economy, the race for innovation is a race for data.
A related new research paper of Pablo de Pedraza on the topic is:
The first use of social media data for policy analysis in response to data needs in a huge crisis has been made in the context of the 2009 financial market crisis:
GLO FellowPablo de Pedraza (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre) is an Economist interested in the use of web data for economic research. His research interests are web data, life satisfaction and the semicircular flow of the data economy. The scientific output expressed does not imply a European Commission policy position. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.
Middle photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
Interview
GLO:What is the “data economy” and its “semicircular flow”?
Pablo de Pedraza: The “Data economy” is an economy where data plays a crucial role. From a consumption perspective, personal data is similar to money; citizens pay online services with their data. From a production point of view, data is like oil; a raw material to produce digital services. Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. Theoretical economic concepts also apply to the “data economy” which has its own market failures. The “semicircular” flow is a theoretical model that aims to simplify the complex reality of the “data economy.” It facilitates discussion about the why and how of data policy. The general idea is that the data flow is semicircular; from households and firms to data holders, but not in the other direction. Households and firms receive data-driven services that are the result of knowledge extracted from data. If citizens would receive data, they would not have the capacity to process nor extract knowledge from that data. One of the objectives of data policy is to empower the individual.
GLO:Why is the level of knowledge below the socially desirable amount?
Pablo de Pedraza: The question is whether the process of extracting knowledge from data is a natural monopoly, which is an empirical question for which we have no answer yet. We can observe how data holders like large technology companies behave. They are data hungry, in the search for the perfect marketing tool. In econometric terms, they are in a race towards N=All and X=everything. If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, and data holders are profit maximization agents and monopoly theory holds, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount. Therefore, public intervention should focus on increasing knowledge generation. What kind of knowledge? Data is a different type of good depending on the kind of knowledge generated. Using data to generate market power is a demerit good. Data is a merit good if used: to deliver nimbler public policy, to protect competitive markets, to forecast economic cycles, to protect consumer’s rights, and study a pandemic.
GLO:Some people say, we have enough data, but not the right one….
Pablo de Pedraza: The data economy has its own sources of access inequalities similar to income inequalities. Many agents that could generate merit knowledge, such as the scientific community, central banks or anti-trust authorities, do not have enough access to data. For example, research literature shows how online searches can improve forecasting models. One of the main conclusions from that literature is that better understanding of results needs the disclosure of more data. More accurate forecasting is an example of merit knowledge that benefits the whole society, including data holders.
GLO:Can your theory help us to understand the data challenge in the coronavirus crisis?
Pablo de Pedraza: Yes. Think about mobile apps to track Covid-19. The more citizens responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus. The semicircular flow of the economy defines the data sharing Laffer curve. It explains the theoretical determinants of optimum data sharing as the point where society generates the maximum amount of data and merit knowledge. Principles that define the curve, such as trust, apply to the covid-19 data challenge. When citizens understand the data dimension of the economy and trust the rule of law, they are more willing to contribute to a solution, install the app, and give consent to share their data. If they do not understand what they are giving their consent for, they will be hesitant to install the app and therefore; data generated will be lower and knowledge will be below the socially desirable amount.
GLO: What are the conclusions for data sharing policies?
Pablo de Pedraza: In a data economy, the race for innovation is the race for data. Leaving data policy only in the hands of data holders will not solve antitrust concerns. The lack of competition stifles innovation although it may initially attract investment. However, excessive intervention discourages investment from data holders and generate surveillance concerns. Countries able to empower well-informed citizens by developing their data literacy, fostering user centric approaches, building strong public data infrastructures and institutions will win the race. Citizens operating in a secure environment will generate more data and increase innovation. In my opinion, data sharing policies are just as vital and important as fiscal and monetary policies. The semicircular flow of the economy is a data sharing theoretical framework. The data dimension of the covid-19 crisis is an illustrative example of that framework.
************* With Pablo de Pedraza spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President. Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) intensify their collaborations, as IESR DirectorShuaizhang Feng and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann have declared.
IESR Director Shuaizhang Feng has been appointed GLO Country Lead China. IESR provides institutional support as a GLO-related institution and serves as a local host for GLO activities.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference.IESR and GLO are jointly organizing a virtual conference on the economic issues of Covid-19. The event is a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers. Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). The Virtual Conference takes place on June 5-7, 2020. Deadline for paper submission is May 24. MORE INFO.
Journal of Population Economics: Klaus F. Zimmermann is Editor-in-Chief; Shuaizhang Feng one of the Editors.
IESR-GLO Conferences 2018 – 2020.
2020 June 5-7: Guangzhou, Jinan University, China.Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference on “The Economics of Covit-19”. Virtual event. MORE INFO.
2019, March 21-22: Guangzhou, China. Jinan University.IESR-GLO Conference on “Belt and Road” Labor Markets. Organizers: Shuaizhang Feng and Klaus F. Zimmermann. A focus was China, South Asia and South East Asia. GLO News Report. IESR Report LINK WEBSITE.
2018, March 11-20: Guangzhou/China; Jinan University; Research and contact visit of the GLO President. Career seminar provided by the GLO President. First GLO-IESR Conference on “Labor Economics” and various paper presentations by GLO Fellows. Public Policy Lecture of the GLO President on European Migration. Debate with Editor of “Social Science in China” by the GLO President and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics. Debate with Dean & GLO Fellow Shuaizhang Feng by the GLO President on unemployment.
A new GLO Discussion Paper contains robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper presents robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction which is subsequently explained by improvements in satisfaction with one’s financial situation, free time, health, and participation in local community activities. Furthermore, while the positive wellbeing impact of retirement is sizable initially, it fades after the first 3 years. We find that the improvements in financial satisfaction upon retirement are only observed for low-income individuals. However, the wellbeing impact of retirement does not differ by gender, educational, occupational, economic or marital backgrounds. We also explore several potential explanations for our findings. This paper employs a fixed effect instrumental variable model, which exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension to construct an instrument for retirement, and 18 waves of high-quality Australian panel data. The results also suggest that failing to adequately account for the endogeneity of retirement would result in a downward-biased estimate of a positive wellbeing impact of retirement.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that information and communications technology (ICT) significantly increases students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and higher wages. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1101-1126 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on college students’ labor market performance. Using a large, representative survey of college students in China, we examine outcomes before and after students were exposed to technology-aided instruction, compared with students who were not exposed to such instruction. The results indicate that the ICT program significantly increased students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and the wage they were offered. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search. While most previous studies of the use of technology in education focus only on students’ academic achievement and find zero or negative effects, our study demonstrates that technology may be an effective tool for improving college students’ labor market performance, and that the potential benefits of technology might be underestimated if we focus only on test scores and ignore students’ career development.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new GLO Discussion Paperuncovers patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution in India over a quarter century.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyze the Indian National Sample Survey data spanning 1987/88–2011/12 to uncover patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution. At the aggregate level, income growth has accelerated, accompanied by accelerating poverty decline. Underlying these trends is a process of mobility, with 40–60 percent of the population transitioning between consumption classes and increasing mobility over time. Yet, the majority of those who escape poverty remain vulnerable. Most of those who are poor were also poor in the preceding period and, thus, are likely to be chronically poor. The characteristics of upwardly mobile households contrast with those of the poor; these households are also far less likely to experience downward mobility. We also find that states exhibit heterogenous mobility patterns.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides a model that can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1025-1068 FREE READ LINK
GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner
Author Abstract: To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates Covid-19 infection detection by using a machine learning procedure for hardly reliable data to identify structural breaks. It finds successfully forItaly three structural breaks that can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Feedback control-based mitigation strategies for COVID-19 are threatened by the time span occurring before an infection is detected in official data. Such a delay also depends on behavioral, technological and procedural issues other than the incubation period. We provide a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in detected positive cases dynamics using territorial level panel data. In our case study, Italy, three structural breaks are found and they can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities. This allows assessing the detection delays and their relevant variability among the different measures adopted and the relative effectiveness of each of them. Accordingly we draw some policy suggestions to support feedback control based mitigation policies as to decrease their risk of failure, including the further role that wide swap campaigns may play in reducing the detection delay. Finally, by exploiting the huge heterogeneity among Italian provinces features, we stress some drawbacks of the restrictive measures specific features and of their sequence of adoption, among which, the side effects of the main lockdown on social and economic inequalities.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that housing or real estate improves the man’s status in the marriage market of Taiwan.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1005-1023 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: In theory, people who own real estate should have advantage finding a partner in the marriage market. Empirical analyses along this line, however, face three issues. First, it is difficult to identify any causality for whether housing facilitates marriage or expected marriage facilitates a housing purchase. Second, survey samples usually do not cover very wealthy people, and so the observations are top coding in the wealth dimension. Third, getting married is a dynamic life cycle decision, and rich life-history data are rarely available. This paper uses registry data from Taiwan to estimate the impact of males’ housing wealth on their first-marriage duration, taking into account all three issues mentioned above. We find that a 10% increase in real estate wealth increases probability of a man getting married in any particular year by 3.92%. Our finding suggests that housing or real estate is a status good in the marriage market.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the total productivity of their respective networks among all nobel prize winners identifies Deaton, Tirole, Arrow and Stiglitz as global leaders in economics.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyse the production and networks of Nobel laureates in Economics, employing the Normalized Impact Factor (NIF) of their publications in the Journal of Citation Report (Economics), to identify the academic leaders among those laureates awarded between 1969 and 2016. Our results indicate that direct collaborations among laureates are, in general, rare, but when we add all the co-authors of the laureates, there appears a very large component containing 70% of the nodes, so that more than two thirds of the laureates can be connected through only two steps. Deaton, Tirole, Arrow, and Stiglitz are identified as leaders according to the total production of their respective networks.
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics highlights that fathers in Australia play a pivotal role in the skill production process of their kidsover the lifecourse.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 957-1004 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: We examine the role that parental engagement with child’s education plays in the lifecourse dynamics of locus of control (LOC), one of the most widely studied non-cognitive skills related to economic decision-making. We focus on parental engagement as previous studies have shown that it is malleable, easy to measure, and often available for fathers, whose inputs are notably understudied in the received literature. We estimate a standard skill production function using rich British cohort data. Parental engagement is measured with information provided at age 10 by the teacher on whether the father or the mother is very interested in the child’s education. We deal with the potential endogeneity in parental engagement by employing an added-value model, using lagged measures of LOC as a proxy for innate endowments and unmeasured inputs. We find that fathers’, but not mothers’, engagement leads to internality, a belief associated with positive lifetime outcomes, in both young adulthood and middle age for female and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort members. Fathers’ engagement also increases the probability of lifelong internality and fully protects against lifelong externality. Our findings highlight that fathers play a pivotal role in the skill production process over the lifecourse.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new GLO Discussion Papersuggests that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking and digital conferencing will continue after the coronacrisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: While a considerable number of employees across the globe are being forced to work from home due to the COVID-19 crisis, it is a guessing game as to how they are experiencing this current surge in telework. Therefore, we examined employee perceptions of telework on various life and career aspects, distinguishing between typical and extended telework during the COVID-19 crisis. To this end, we conducted a state-of-the-art web survey among Flemish employees. Notwithstanding this exceptional time of sudden, obligatory and high-intensity telework, our respondents mainly attribute positive characteristics to teleworking, such as increased efficiency and a lower risk of burnout. The results also suggest that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking (85%) and digital conferencing (81%) are here to stay. In contrast, some fear that telework diminishes their promotion opportunities and weakens ties with their colleagues and employer.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that an early-life social safety net program has a sizeable impact on child health outcomes at birth.
Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 883-956 FREE READ LINK
Author Abstract: We study the acting mechanism of an early-life social safety net program and quantify its impact on child health outcomes at birth. We consider both the equity and efficiency implications of program impacts and provide a metric to compare such programs around the world. In particular, we estimate the impact of participation in Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC), Chile’s flagship early-life health and social welfare program, using a difference-in-differences style model based on variation in program intensity and administrative birth data matched to social benefits usage. We find that this targeted social program had significant effects on birth weight (approximately 10 grams) and other early-life human capital measures. These benefits are largest among the most socially vulnerable groups but shift outcomes toward the middle of the distribution of health at birth. We show that the program is efficient when compared to other successful neonatal health programs around the world and find some evidence to suggest that maternal nutrition components and increased links to the social safety net are important action mechanisms.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3: Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?. Journal of Population Economics33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7
A new GLO Discussion Paperfindsthat peer depression in adolescence affects own depression in adulthood, but family can function as a buffer.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We provide first evidence that peer depression in adolescence affects own depression in adulthood. We use data from Add Health and an identification strategy that relies on within-school and across-cohort idiosyncratic variation in the share of own-gender peers who are depressed. We find a significant peer effect for females but not for males. An increase of one standard deviation of the share of own-gender peers (schoolmates) who are depressed increases the probability of depression in adulthood by 2.6 percentage points for females (or 11.5% of mean depression). We also find that the peer effect is already present in the short term when girls are still in school and provide evidence for why it persists over time. Further analysis reveals that individuals from families with a lower socioeconomic background are more susceptible to peer influence, thereby suggesting that family can function as a buffer. Our findings underscore the importance of peer relationships in adolescence with regard to the development of long-lasting depression in women.
