The Global Labor Organization (GLO) recommends a Course in Microeconometrics by Professor Jeffrey M. Wooldridge of Michigan State University. GLO Fellow Wooldridge is one of the most distinguished econometricians of our time. Venue is the University of Kent on 16-17 May 2019.
The course will cover several topics of interest to empirical researchers working primarily on micro-level data sets. There are a limited number of places available in the course for academics and research students working on micro-level data sets.
GLO Fellow Olena Nizalova of the University of Kent is one of the organizers of the event. GLO Fellows and Affiliates are invited to nominate potential participants, please contact Olena Nizalova before the end of April about your interest.
The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month in March finds that girls living in localities with return migrants in Mali are less likely to be circumcised. This effect is driven mainly by the returnees from Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting that, in addition to punitive action against those who practice Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) or information campaigns, having lived in an African country where FGM practice is not customary is equally influential. This is evidence for the relevance of social remittances through return migration here by improving social norms.
GLO Fellow Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Paris School of Economics.
Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
Abstract:In this paper, we investigate the power of migration as a mechanism in the transmission of
social norms, taking Mali and Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) as a case study. Mali has a strong
FGM culture and a long-standing history of migration. We use an original household-level
database coupled with census data to analyze the extent to which girls living in localities with
high rates of return migrants are less prone to FGM. Malians migrate predominantly to other
African countries where female circumcision is uncommon (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire) and to countries
where FGM is totally banned (France and other developed countries) and where anti-FGM
information campaigns frequently target African migrants. Taking a two-step instrumental
variable approach to control for the endogeneity of migration and return decisions, we show
that return migrants have a negative and significant influence on FGM practices. More precisely,
we show that this result is primarily driven by the flow of returnees from Cote d’Ivoire. We also
show that adults living in localities with return migrants are more informed about FGM and in
favor of legislation. The impact of returnees may occur through several channels, including
compositional effects, changes in return migrants’ attitudes toward FGM, and return migrants
convincing stayers to change their FGM practices.
GLO DP Team Senior
Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F.
Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
“What problems are today’s populists seeking to address? Are followers of populist leaders driven by economic insecurity at a time of rising economic inequality and subpar growth, or by a reaction against progressive values, or both?” The International Economy magazine.
In its Winter 2019 issue of “The International Economy”, the Washington DC based magazine of international economic policy, has featured a prominent symposium of views on “Why is Populism on the Rise and What Do the Populists Want?”. Klaus F. Zimmermann, the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Bonn University Professor and UNU-MERIT/Maastricht affiliated economist, who is currently the George Soros Chair Professor at the School of Public Policy of the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, had been asked to contribute to this debate. The link to the full text of the symposium is here. Please find the contribution of Zimmermann also below.
Related to the interactions between media, populism and migration is a new Oxford University book also free access online, to which GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has contributed a chapter. See:
Martin Ruhs, Kristof Tamas, & Joakim Palme (Eds.): Bridging the Gaps. Linking Research to Public Debates and Policy Making on Migration and Integration. Oxford University Press. Published online March 28, 2019.
Chapter 8: Klaus F. Zimmermann: Gaps and Challenges of Migration Policy Advice: The German Experience
Place: 31 May-June 1: Brasov, Romania, at the Transilvania University of Brasov.
Organizers: Transilvania University of Brasov; Romanian Academy, Institute of Economic Forecasting; Global Labor Organization (GLO)
Invited Speakers are Filomena Maggino and Klaus F. Zimmermann.
To participate: Register until April 26 through the conference website and send an abstract asap. CONTACT.
GLO is interested in research papers for a special session related to the Labor Markets of Countries in South East Europe; GLO members who wish to contribute to this are invited to send an abstract by April 20 to Klaus F. Zimmermann. (klaus.f.zimmermann@gmail.com)
Francesco Pastore is Associate Professor of Political Economy at the University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli & Fellow and Country Lead for Italy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
Marco Pompiliis Researcher at Ismeri Europa and GLO Fellow.
GLO Research for Policy Note No. 1 – Theme 4. Population dynamics: youth employment and participation
What works for youth employment? An evaluation of an Italian regional integrated program of active labour market policies
by Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili
In a recent GLO Discussion Paper, we have studied the effect of PIPOL (Piano integrato di politiche per l’occupazione e il lavoro), an integrated programme of active labour market policies, launched by the Italian Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia in 2014, to facilitate the increasingly difficult school to work transitions for young people. The programme grouped different funding sources, including those originating from the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI), (an initiative supporting young people in European Union countries, living in regions with high young unemployment rate). The Programme provided employment and training services to increase the employability of participants. ____________________
What we should know
PIPOL is targeted at different groups of people with different needs: Group 1 includes young people aged 15-19 years at risk of dropping out of school; Group 2 includes young NEETs (Not-in-Education-Employment-or-Training) under the age of 30; Group 3 includes under-30 youngsters with a high-school diploma or a professional qualification attained within the last 12 months; Group 4 includes young people under-30 with a university degree obtained at least 12 months earlier; Group 5 includes unemployed people or at risk of unemployment.
The participation in PIPOL is structured in three phases. Phase one is registration: young participants who think to be eligible can register on-line or go to a Public Employment Service (PES) or other institutions for specific groups. In phase two, orientation services are provided and participants are profiled according to their needs band; this service has to be offered to people within 60 days from the registration to the PESs. An individual action plan is established, showing the type of active policies to be administered. Phase three is the implementation of active measures, such as on-the-job training, classroom traineeship, labour incentives, support to business creation.
Our evaluation focussed on the first stage of PIPOL, in particular on the interventions of off-the-job and on-the-job training completed by the end of 2016.
Our analysis focused on 4,962 off-the-job training courses and 3,361 internships, that were completed by the end of 2016. In terms of participants, the study covered 7,175 young people, of which 4,059 women. Overall, 3,911 attended off-the-job training; 2,945 attended on-the-job training; and 319 both types of intervention.
To assess the impact, we have resorted to a counterfactual approach: a control group is extracted by means of PSM or Mahalanobis matching among those who registered in the program over the years 2014-16, but have never benefited of the program. In other words, the econometric procedure is organized in two steps. In step one, we draw a random sample of individuals from the group of those who registered in the program but did not attend because of the lack of suitable financial resources. The selection is done in such a way that the target and control group have exactly the same characteristics.
The Mahanobis matching is more accurate since it implies that only individuals with exactly the same characteristics are selected. In step two, we compare the probability to find a job by the program participants and the control group to see whether the former has a higher probability of employment than the latter. This allowed us controlling for observed heterogeneity through a battery of control variables (age, gender, citizenship, education, province of residence and also pre-program work experience) and for unobserved heterogeneity, by extracting the control group using the same pool of individuals registered in the program.
We used data from two main sources: 1) different data banks from the administration of the program and 2) information on outcome variables obtained from compulsory communications that employers have to make to employment services whenever any labour contract is signed or completed/ended.
What works? On-the-job training has the greatest impact!
We found that the net impact of PIPOL is equal to 5 percentage point (pp) on average, meaning that people who benefited from the Programme have an average probability to be employed 5 percentage points higher than people who did not.
The greatest impact was found for on-the-job training, and no significant impact was observed for in-room training. On-the Job training also increased the probability of finding permanent work (+3pp). This is consistent with the view of a youth labour market where young people have excellent theoretical competences, but very little work experience and work-related competences (Pastore, 2015; 2018).
The off-the-job training programs did not show statistically significant impact on employment, but did affect the probability to experience at least one labour contract after 2016.
These results are partly due to a lock-in effect, namely the tendency of those who attend training programs to put off their effort in job search.
Interestingly, we found that the program has a different impact for different typologies of recipients and different types of intervention. The scheme seems to have a greater net impact in the case of women, foreigners and young people with lower education.
Some forms of off-the-job training still have a positive net impact on employment chances (training to gain a qualification).
Internships in manufacturing and construction show a greater impact than in the service sector, although the service sector is experiencing a larger expansion overall.
____________________ This study represents an important addition to the Italian and global literature on programme evaluation regarding school to work transitions, considering the small number of such studies, noted also in the recent review of the literature by Card et al. (2010). It is one of the first analysis of the effect of interventions implemented within the YEI. To our knowledge, there is only a previous paper assessing the impact of YEI in Latvia (Bratti M. et al. 2018) and the evaluation of the Italian YEI (Isfol, 2016), the latter focusing on the very short-term effects. Our findings suggest that active labour market policies for youth are more effective in Italy when they are directly related to the production of work-related competences.
References Angrist, D. & J. Pischke (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press, Princeton. Bratti, M. & al. (2018). Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design, IZA Discussion Paper No. 1187. Card, D., J. Kluwe and A. Weber (2010). Active Labor Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis. Economic Journal, 120 (548): F452-F477. Card, D., & al. (2018). What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations. Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3): 894-931. Isfol. (2016). Primo Rapporto di valutazione del Piano italiano Garanzia Giovani. Roma: Ministero del Lavoro. Pastore, F. (2018). Why So Slow? The School-to-Work Transition in Italy. Forthcoming in Studies in Higher Education. Pastore, F. (2015). The Youth Experience Gap. Explaining National Differences in the School-to-Work Transition, Springer Briefs in Economics, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg. Patore, F. & M. Pompili (2019). Assessing the Impact of Off- and On-the-job Training on Employment Outcomes. A Counterfactual Evaluation of the PIPOL Program, GLO Discussion Paper No. 333.
NOTE: Opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
GLO Fellow Adrian Cantemir Calin of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, organizes the 5th International Conference on Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research on May 23-24, 2019 at the Romanian Academy in Bucharest. See below for more details.
The conference takes great pride in offering young researcher an opportunity to discuss their work in the current economic context. In this line, the organizers are continuing the tradition of the “young talent” section, aiming to provide a vehicle for scientific dissemination for an even younger audience. Under this section they welcome papers from PhD students, master students and even bachelor students that aim at a career in academic research.
GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has visited the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University in Guangzhou, China, at IESR, Jinan University during 17 – 24 March, 2019. On March 21 – 22, he had organized IESR-GLO Workshop on ‘Belt and Road’ Labor Markets together with GLO FellowShuaizhang Feng, the Dean of IESR. The focus of the workshop was China, South Asia and South East Asia. For the workshop program see below. IESR Report LINK WEBSITE.
Shuaizhang Feng, Dean of IESR
March 21st, 2019 9:30-9:40 Welcome remarks by Shuaizhang Feng and Klaus F. Zimmermann 9:40-10:40 Michele Bruni: China and the BRI Countries at a Demographic Crossroad: Labour Market Implications, Challenges and Opportunities 10:40-11:10 Group Picture and Coffee Break 11:10-11:50 Asad Islam: Can Referral Improve Targeting? Evidence from a Training Experiment 11:50-13:50 Lunch 13:50-14:30 Jinseong Park: Parental Wealth, Time to First Job, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Housing Wealth Shocks in South Korea 14:30-14:50 Coffee Break 14:50-15:30 M Niaz Asadullah: Female Seclusion from Paid Work: A Social Norm or Cultural Preference? 15:30-16:10 Shuaizhang Feng: The Challenge of Internal Migration on China’s Long Term Sustainable Growth
Bruni
Islam
Xue
Park, Ouch, AsadullahDinner with Associate Dean and GLO Fellow Sisi Zhang (second from right) GLO Fellows (from left) Xue, Park, Assadullah, Bruni, Ouch, and Islam with Zimmermann
March 22nd, 2019 9:00-9:40 Chandarany Ouch: China’s BRI and Challenges and Opportunities for Cambodia’s Labour Market 9:40-10:20 Sen Xue: Institutional Restrictions on Migration and Migrant Consumption and Savings Response 10:20-10:40 Coffee Break 10:40-11:20 Klaus F. Zimmermann: Arsenic Contamination of Drinking Water in Bangladesh: Knowledge and Response 11:20-12:00 Round Table Discussion 12:00-14:00 Lunch
Zimmermann, Ouch & Feng
List of GLO Participants Michele Bruni: Professor at Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies, University of Modena, Team Leader of EU-China Social Protection Reform Project Shuaizhang Feng: Professor and Dean of IESR, Jinan University Asad Islam: Associate Professor of Department of Economics, Monash University M Niaz Asadullah: Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Univ of Malaya Chandarany Ouch: Research Fellow, Head of Economics Unit, Cambodia Development Resource Institute Jinseong Park: Assistant Professor of IESR, Jinan University Sen Xue: Assistant Professor of IESR, Jinan University Klaus F. Zimmermann: Professor of Bonn University and UNU-MERIT, President of the Global Labor Organization
Arriving from Kuala Lumpur, where he had spent time as a Visiting Professor at the University of Malaya, GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann arrived on March 17 in Guangzhou, China, to work a full week at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University.
Jinan University (JNU) was founded in 1906 by the Qing government in Nanjing as the first university in China to enroll overseas Chinese students. Now, it is the top university in mainland China for international students and it has fully devoted itself to creating a culture of openness, diversity and creativity among its faculty and students.
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) was created in December 2015 by appointing Yangtze River Scholar ProfessorShuaizhang Feng appointed as the first Dean. The mission of IESR is to advance policy-oriented economic and social research addressing the most relevant challenges of the modern China. Within a short time, IESR has gained a strong faculty of significant researchers and a global reputation of excellence.
IESR has been an early supporter and collaborator of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Dean and ProfessorShuaizhang Feng is a GLO Fellow of the first hour. During his second visit to IESR, Klaus F. Zimmermann met again with many IESR researchers to discuss their latest research.
Shuaizhang Feng was also recently appointed Editor of the Journal of Population Economicspublished by Springer Nature. The Journal, the leader of the academic field of Population Economics, is directed by Zimmermann, who is the Editor-in-Chief. Both Feng and Zimmermann had various talks about the further collaborations to strenghten IESR, GLO and the Journal of Population Economics.
Shuaizhang Feng
At IESR, Zimmermann was working in the Jim Heckman room….
After discussions with visitor Wenkai Sun, Professor & Labor Economist of the Renmin University of China, Beijing, and GLO Fellow. As an Honorary Professor of Beijing University, Zimmermann has frequently visited Beijing.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Professor Emeritus of Bonn University, Co-Director POP at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, and Honorary Professor Maastricht University, has been appointed Visiting Professor at the Faculty of Economics & Administration of the University of Malaya (UM) for his March visit to Malaysia. He provided academic lectures and debated research issues with colleagues and students. Zimmermann, who is also the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), introduced this large academic network and promoted the Journal of Population Economics, which he is directing as the Editor-in-Chief. He also discussed research initiatives with GLO Fellow M. Niaz Asadullah, (UM), who is also the GLO South -East Asia Research Cluster Lead.
THE PROGRAM AT UM
March 10-17, 2019: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Klaus F. Zimmermann has been Visiting Professor at UM. See for the warm welcome with the Dean. The detailed program in Malaysia was as follows:
March 12: Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS). Klaus F. Zimmermann provided the public University Silver Jubilee Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” and a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. See for details.
March 13: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Joint GLO -UM public Seminar on “Introducing GLO – Pushing the Research Frontier on Labor and Human Resources Issues”. See for more details.
March 14: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Joint GU- World BankResearch Seminar of Klaus F. Zimmermann on “Economic Preferences Across Generations“. See for more details.
March 15: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM). Klaus F. Zimmermann provides a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. See for more details.
Arrived at the University of MalayaUniversity of MalayaIn front of the office Zimmermann with Dean & Prof. Rohana Binti Jani and his host, GLO Fellow and Prof. M. Niaz Asadullah (left)
Lecturing
Zimmermann Lecture at the Joint UN – World Bank Seminar UM Faculty and Word Bank Researchers from the left: Nai Peng Tey, Young Eun Kim, M. Niaz Asadullah, Noor Azina Ismail, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Ong Sheue Li, Vijayendra Rao and Lim Kian Ping. After lunch following the UM – World Bank Research Seminar. UM Faculty of Economics and Administration, ‘his’ Visitor’s Committee. From the left: Pui Kiew Ling, Santha A/P Chenayah @ Ramu (Head of the Department of Economics), Lim Kian Ping, Klaus F. Zimmermann, M. Niaz Asadullah and Ong Sheue Li. After lunch in a great local Malaysian Restaurant celebrating the end of a very successful visit with the team.
March 11 -12, 2019. Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Island of Borneo, Malaysia.GLO PresidentKlaus F. Zimmermann was visiting the Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) and the Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy to celebrate its 25th anniversary. On March 12, he provided the public University Silver Jubilee Lecture on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” and gave a public Seminar on “Publishing in Good Journals”. He was welcomed by a committee consisting of Dean & Associate Prof. Raman Noordin, GLO Fellow Dr. Beatrice Lim and GLO Affiliate & Lecturer Dr. Borhan Abdullah. Beatrice Lim is also a Senior Lecturer and Head of the Human Resource Economics Program of the Faculty. Zimmermann also used the possibility to discuss research and strategic university issues with key officials of UMS and the faculty.
Event banner from the street
About 400 people attended the festive ceremony around the Silver Jubilee Lecture and around 40 stayed to learn and discuss about the art of publishing in good academic journals. The two events were part of a day-long seminar (see below) of the Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy on “Global Labor Economics: Challenges and Benefits” with a series of paper presentations of local scholars in the afternoon.
The event was opened and chaired by Professor Dr. Rasid Mail, Deputy Vice Chancelor (Academic & International), and the introductory speech was delivered by Professor Datuk Dr. Kasim Mansur. The session on publishing was chaired by Senior Lecturer Dr. James Eng. A large number of academic staff, including those of other faculties of the university were attending the event and the discussions in the break.
THE PROGRAM
BROAD MEDIA COVERAGE
Welcome by Prof. Dr. Rasid Mail, Deputy Vice Chancelor (Academic & International) Internal discussion with top faculty and university official
About 400 registered participants.
Dean Noordin, Zimmermann, Deputy Vice Chancellor Mail & Beatrice Lim Ready to travel: With Dean & Associate Prof. Raman Noordin
Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Bonn University and Maastricht University) is the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the President of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES). EBES and GLO are academic partner organizations with a number of joint activities.
Zimmermann in his role as EBES President is the recent successor of Jonathan A. Batten, currently a distinguished Professor of University Utara Malaysia, who was serving in this function for many years. Batten is also a GLO Fellow.
Noor Azina Ismail, a Professor of Applied Statistics of the University of Malaya, is the local contact for the 30th EBES congress, which will take place on January 8-10, 2020 at the University of Malaya, Faculty of Economics and Administration.
Zimmermann used his visit at UM to meet with Jonathan A. Batten for dinner and with Noor Azina Ismail for lunch to discuss EBES business issues.
Noor Azina Ismail & Klaus F. Zimmermann after lunch.Klaus F. Zimmermann & Jonathan A.Batten after dinner.
Morocco, a North-African country that has become a major emigration hub to Europe, has seen many calls for political change over the last few years. The Discussion Paper of the Month of February is using micro data from that country to confirm that social remittances induced by international migrants are driversof social and political change in the context of Morocco.
GLO Fellows Bachir Hamdouch, Michele Tuccio and Jackie Wahba.
Abstract:This paper focuses on the impact of international migration on the transfer
of political and social norms. Exploiting recent and unique data on Morocco, it
explores whether households with return and current migrants bear different political
preferences and behaviours than non-migrant families. Once controlling for the
double selection into emigration and return migration, findings suggest that having a
returnee in the household increases the demand for political and social change, driven
by returnees mostly from Western European countries, who have been exposed to
more democratic norms at destination. However, we find a negative impact of having
a current migrant on the willingness to change of the left-behind household, driven by
migrants to non-West countries, where the quality of political and social institutions
is lower. Our results are robust to also controlling for destination selectivity.
GLO DP Team Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
Deadline for the submission of abstracts is 30 June 2019.
New Economic & Statistical Perspectives on Urban & Territorial Themes (NESPUTT 2019)
The Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology and Social Sciences (CISEPS) and the Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) at the University of Milan-Bicocca in collaboration with the Regional Economic Modelling Team (REMO) of the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) are organizing an international workshop entitled New Economic & Statistical Perspectives on Urban and Territorial Themes (NESPUTT), which will take place in Milan on the 21st and 22nd of November 2019.
The workshop aims at fostering an interdisciplinary debate involving economists, statisticians, modellers and other social scientists towards a better understanding of contemporary regions and cities, viewed as complex socio-economic systems. The NESPUTT Workshop encourages contributions about new theoretical/methodological approaches and applied research from regional economics, behavioral economics, environmental economics, experimental economics, statistics and other quantitative disciplines.
The following list illustrates, but does not exhaust, possible topics applied to regional and urban themes:
Behavioral economics
Digital transformation
Environmental economics
Experimental economics
Inequality
Innovation and competitiveness
Migration
Nudging
Regional divide
Regional economic adjustment and development
Small areas
Social exclusion
Social mobility
Spatial modelling/statistics/econometric
Submissions of papers based on the application of behavioral, experimental and computational economics approaches to urban studies are also welcome. Special sessions devoted to particularly innovative approaches may be organized.
Participation of interested researchers and policy makers from all countries is welcome.
Proceedings: The NESPUTT2019 workshop will publish an electronic “Papers and Proceedings” edition with ISBN highlighting selected short papers (maximum 4 pages) from the meeting. You must indicate that your paper is to be included in the proceedings.
Location of the conference: University of Milan-Bicocca, Piazza dell’Ateneo Nuovo 1, Milan.
Scientific Committee: Riccardo Borgoni (UnimiB), Andrea Caragliu (PoliMi), Andrea Conte (European Commission JRC), André De Palma (ENS Paris Saclays), Giacomo Degli Antoni (University of Parma), Marco Faillo (University of Trento), Patrizio Lecca (European Commission, JRC), Alessandra Michelangeli (UnimiB), Nathalie Picard (University of Cergy-Pontoise).
Azita Berar is Director Policy of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Senior Fellow, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.
GLO Policy Brief No. 1 – Theme 3. Future of Work
Automation, jobs and inequality
by Azita Berar
There is growing apprehension about new waves of technological development in particular about the implications of increasing automation and use of robotics displacing human labour. To date, research and policy debate have mostly focused on the estimation of potential job losses that such technologies will entail sometimes with alarmist conclusions. We argue for considering a broader frame of analysis for research and policy that takes account of wider economic and societal implications, including the distributional issues and the need for policy to re-engineer new and evolving social institutions. ____________________
What we should know
Recent empirical studies (see selected references
below) have focused mostly on the job destruction and substitution impact in the
US, other advanced countries and in a few emerging economies. Through different
methodologies applied and assumptions made to project potential job losses, they
reach very different conclusions about the number of jobs and/or the types of
jobs that will be substituted. Their estimates vary greatly – by no less than 5
times amongst the most alarmist and the lowest band – even when focusing on the
same economy and/ or sector.
The new job creation impact of automation within the
same sector or the broader economy is usually underestimated. There are examples
of automation technology widely used
today that clearly show the positive net job creation and economic expansion.
The most cited example is the ATM innovation in the banking sector dispensing
human tellers. There has been massive redeployment and upgrading of jobs of
former tellers to offer different and higher quality banking products and
services. Productivity gains have been invested in the expansion of the sector,
in turn leading to new jobs and incomes within and outside the sector.
Another fast-evolving technological innovation is
“co-bots”, where robots “co- work” along with (or assist) human workers. Used
in the automotive and the health industry for example, these have contributed
to reducing the drudgery and improving the quality of jobs for humans. And potentially
leading to as many new jobs for humans as the use of this type of automation
spreads.
It is also important to distinguish between the availability of technology that could
replace or displace a certain job/task – a starting premise of recent
projections on automation induced job losses – and the probability that the technology will be adopted on a large scale replacing all such jobs/ tasks. There
are gaps, sometimes very significant, between the two. This gap is larger in
developing countries and amongst them, where as noted, there has been
relatively little research. And where the diffusion and impact of automation
can not be deducted from current estimates focusing on a limited set of
countries and sectors.
An interplay of multiple factors pushing in different
directions determines the pace and scale of adoption of automation innovation
that goes beyond a simple comparison of relative cost among robots and human
labour.
Understanding the decision-making process of managers
and investors in the spread and large-scale adoption of automation is also key.
Rarely, automation alone, in the absence of a broader firm strategy, provides the competitive edge for increased
profitability and productivity.
There are also wide sectoral variations in the nature
of automation innovation and the dynamics of job, income and productivity gains
and losses that could incur. A sector/industry focus would shed more light into
specific dynamics. Another
under-researched area is the dissemination of technology within sectors and
across borders including through global supply chains in highly globalized
industries.
From a societal perspective, the key issue
is how the productivity gains will be invested and/or distributed and through
which mechanisms and institutions. This is highly important not from the angle
of equity but for sustaining demand in the medium to long term.
Throughout previous waves of industrial
revolutions and technological disruptions, starting with the mechanization of
spinning and weaving in Britain’s textile industry the mid-18th century,
there has been apprehension with regard to destruction of jobs and distribution
of wealth and well-being. Then and now, there has been a sharp divide between
optimists and pessimists! Looking back the reality has overtaken all projected
scenarios in very different directions but it has also led to social
engineering, policy innovations and the creation of new institutions to tackle
wider societal implications.
Will it be different this time? Context and policy matter.
Automation in unequal
and polarized environment
This new round of rapid automation innovations is taking place amidst a highly polarized environment.
Labour markets remain tight: globally 192 million people are unemployed of which over 70 million are young women and men. In many instances, the youth unemployment rate is three times higher than adult unemployment and female unemployment twice that of male unemployment. And these figures do not take into account the “discouraged workers”, those who have given up looking for a job. Quality of jobs is a concern. About 1.4 billion people are working in “vulnerable forms” of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) and this number is on the rise. Informality is widespread particularly in developing and emerging countries, where it reaches more than 60 per cent of total employment. There are large segments of population affected by “working poverty”, those who work but are trapped in poverty.
Rising inequality and polarization: in the last two decades, most regions have experienced an increase in income inequality. During the same period, there has been a decline in the share of income that goes to labour relative to capital. And this pattern has persisted while labour productivity has increased. Concerns with hollowing out of the middle class and income polarization along different groups of population galvanizes headlines regularly and feed into social unrest. These trends left unattended, automation is likely to exacerbate the inequalities and vulnerabilities and entail more apprehension, whether founded or not on evidence, and more resistance to change.
A broader policy and
research agenda
For a more positive outlook into the future of automation and work in this environment, there is a need for a broader value-driven policy and research agenda that engages multiple actors, spans to other geographies and provides a more integrated perspective. Beyond net job destruction and creation counts, induced by automation, distribution of jobs and skills, productivity and income gains should be the focus of research and policy.
Space for dialogues. There are examples of how more acceptable and equitable outcomes can be negotiated through social dialogue. The highly automated Hamburg Port is a case in point. Advanced automation has been accompanied by internal redeployment of employees to other jobs and tasks, their re-skilling and up-skilling packages, and redistribution of productivity gains through new working time arrangements and wage compensations.
Another innovative form of dialogue to explore, is dialogue among scientists and technology innovators with the research community in economic and social sciences.
Transition policies should become permanent features of public policy action and enterprise strategies, facilitating redeployment within firm, sector or economy. Use of fiscal policies as well as private sector financing can support active transitions in particular for those made vulnerable to automation, and who are in structural disadvantage in the labour markets.
Expansion and distribution of learning and re-skilling opportunities as automation and other technological innovations require different and continuously evolving set of skills. Their accessibility to those who need them most can be powerful means to reduce inequalities.
The challenges of disruption in labour markets as a result of new waves of automation are real but more complex than a narrow focus on the potential job displacement and job creation impact. While this time too, the future may evolve in unpredictable ways, there is a need for a broader policy and research agenda and actions that accompany these transformations. In the polarized environment of today and the rapid pace of technological innovation, the time is now and the time span is limited to invest in new social engineering and cooperative mechanisms that create more equitable and sustainable outcomes.
__________________
Arntz, Melanie; Gregory; Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich. 2016. “The risk of automation for jobs in OECD Countries: A comparative analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 189. Paris, OECD Publishing.
Frey, Carl Benedikt; Osborne, Michael. 2013. “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”, Oxford, Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a revised version of which was published in 2017 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 114.
ILO, Employment Policy Brief 2017. New automation technologies and job creation and destruction dynamics.
McKinsey Global Institute. 2017. A future that works: automation, employment, and productivity.
World Economic Forum. 2018. The Future of Jobs Report 2018.
World Bank. 2016. World development report 2016: Digital dividend. Washington DC, World Bank.
NOTE: The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of the GLO, which has no institutional position.
Theme: “Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation” June 12-14, 2019, College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, Kigali
NOTE: Deadline for paper submissions is APRIL 30!
June 12-14: Kigali, Rwanda.College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda. 4th EABEW Conference (International Conference of Eastern Africa Business and Economic Watch) on “Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation” with GLO support. GLO Fellows Manfred Fischedick, Almas Heshmati and GLO PresidentKlaus F. Zimmermann are among the invited speakers. Call for Papers with deadline April 30, 2019. Almas Heshmati is the academic Lead of the GLO Research Cluster on “Labor Markets in Africa”. GLO Fellow Rama B. Rao is the Chair of the Organizing Committee of the conference.
Call for Papers. Original evidence based theoretical, methodological, empirical research, policy or practice oriented research papers on the theme are invited from researchers, academicians, industry practitioners for presentation at the conference. Submitted papers should be in the areas of economics and business management and any other interdisciplinary fields that contribute to socio-economic transformation that may fall in any of the tracks defined in the call.
Deadlines of Forthcoming Scientific Conferences supported by the GLO:
May 29-31: Coventry, UK. 28thEBES conference.Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES). With GLO sessions.Call for papers. Deadline for Abstract Submission is February 28. GLO internal meeting is scheduled for the late afternoon of May 28. GLO Fellows and Affiliates interested to participate in GLO activities in Coventry are invited to contact Matloob Piracha. Invited Speakers are David B. Audretsch, Dorothea Schäfer, Marco Vivarelli and Klaus F. Zimmermann. See for more conference details.
Journal of Population Economics. Volume 32 Number 2 is now available online.
Ten new articles in Population Economics are published, see listing and access below. Ten new Associate Editors have been appointed. Their names and pictures are below.
In this issue: TABLE OF CONTENT and article access
The discussion paper of the month explores the vote on the Swiss minaret initiative in 2009 as a natural experiment to identify the effect of newly revealed reservations towards immigrants on their location choices. The research finds that the probability of immigrants to relocate to a municipality that unexpectedly revealed stronger negative attitudes towards them is significantly reduced in the time after the vote. The effect seems to apply to all immigrant groups – Muslim, non-European and European -, and to be stronger for high-skilled immigrants.
Abstract: In a national ballot in 2009, Swiss citizens surprisingly approved an amendment to the Swiss constitution to ban the further construction of minarets. The ballot outcome manifested reservations and anti-immigrant attitudes in regions of Switzerland which had previously been hidden. We exploit this fact as a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of negative attitudes towards immigrants on foreigners’ location choices and thus indirectly on their utility. Based on a regression discontinuity design with unknown discontinuity points and administrative data on the population of foreigners, we find that the probability of their moving to a municipality which unexpectedly expressed stronger reservations decreases initially by about 40 percent. The effect is accompanied by a drop of housing prices in these municipalities and levels off over a period of about 5 months. Moreover, foreigners in high-skill occupations react relatively more strongly highlighting a tension when countries try to attract well-educated professionals from abroad.
GLO DP Team Senior Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
On 8 February 2019, M Niaz Asadullah, Professor at the University of Malaya, Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and GLO Lead for South-East Asia, gives the
GLO-MSUIIT Public Lecture on “Education 4.0: Technology, Teachers and Learners”.
The event takes place on 8.00 am to 12:00 pm at the Amphitheatre, College of Education, Mindanao State University, Iligan Institute of Technology (MSUIIT), Philippines.
Abstract
This lecture provides an overview of the challenges that developing country education systems face to prepare youths for Industry 4.0. I start with a critical overview of the global “learning crisis” and summarize the evidence on automation risks. I then discuss how teachers are responding to these two challenges by adopting new technologies to re-design the learning space in order to impart 21st Century skills and future-proof the labor force. The discussion also highlights some of the factors that limit the potential positive impact of technology on learners in developing countries. I conclude by discussing the importance of system-wide reforms and early interventions to deliver New Economy skills and achieve the SDG 4 target of quality education for all.
Marco Leonardi, economic advisor to two prime ministers in the Italian government from 2014 to 2018, has just published a new book on his experience in office during the Italian labor market reforms and the threatened future perspectives of those changes:
The hijacked reforms: why there is no coming back from labor and pension reform.Le Riforme Dimezzate, EGEA 2018 (in Italian).
Italy has passed three important reforms in the past four years—of the labor market, of the pension system and the introduction of a universal measure against poverty. All these reforms are already being undone, and yet this book explains, from the perspective of someone who worked within the Prime Minister’s policy unit, why there should not be any coming back from the main changes in the labor market and in the pension system.
Former
Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of the Italian Government and Full
Professor of Economics at the University of Milan, Italy. He received his PhD
from the London School of Economics and spent visiting periods at MIT,
Georgetown and Berkeley. His research interests are in labor economics,
inequality and education.
“In this book I describe the birth of labor market reform from within the policy unit of the Prime Minister’s Office. In addition, I discuss two other major reforms undertaken in the past four years: the pension reform and the introduction of a universal measure against poverty. I approach these topics from both the political (how and why certain policy decisions were taken) and the technical perspective. I refer to the many (at times difficult) relations between the government and other administrations, as well as the unions, and the lengthy political and administrative process required to enact a law, from the first parliamentary draft up to the implementation of the software to request the new subsidy online (in the case of the new subsidy for the poor). No law produces real effects until the moment it is “online,” and several steps are required to reach that point. Very often the laws are ineffective because their implementation is flawed, and a policy unit’s job is to drive the laws through their implementation process.
The most important reform has been the labor market reform (called the “Jobs
Act”). This reform is recognized internationally because it was adopted amid the
international debate on “flexsecurity” and the increasing protection of the
open-ended contract (or single contract).
During the 1990s there was considerable continuity in the employment
protection legislation of OECD countries, with one major exception: the
deregulation of fixed-term contracts and other non-standard labor relationships.
Particularly in Southern Europe, changes in labor market policy consisted
mainly of measures aimed at introducing “flexibility at the margin,” that is,
making the utilization of non-permanent contracts more loosely regulated while
leaving the discipline of permanent employment unchanged. Flexibility at the
margin, however, amplified the two-tier nature of labor markets, raising
concerns over the risk of labor market “dualism” or “segmentation.” Triggered
by these concerns, public opinion and policy-makers have repeatedly stressed
the importance of searching for “an appropriate balance between flexibility and
security” (the so-called “flexsecurity,” as pointed to by the European
Commission in multiple documents).
The Jobs
Act marks a stark change with respect to the approach to flexibility at the
margin by reducing firing costs for permanent employment and by making them
both (a) predictable ex ante and (b) increasing
according to the worker’s tenure within the firm. By doing so, the Jobs Act
aims at reducing dualism in the labor market, fostering human capital
accumulation, increasing job mobility to cope with structural adjustment, and
favoring workers’ protection “in the market.”
The most controversial aspect of the reform has
certainly been the abolition of the possibility of a worker’s reinstatement (“reintegro”) after illegitimate dismissal
for economic motives. This provision is limited to contracts signed after the
reform (March 7, 2015) and entails a drastic limitation to the possibility of
reinstatement, even in case of disciplinary dismissal. This substantial
uniformity of firing costs for both disciplinary and economic cases is
necessary to curb the incentive to surreptitiously justify dismissals so that
they allow for reinstatement, an outcome that would have certainly increased
the number of cases litigated in court. For consistency, the ability to
reinstate workers has also been excluded for collective dismissals, as they
have in essence an economic motivation. The abolition of the possibility of
reinstatement has certainly given birth to a clear-cut reform, a fact that has
been welcomed by international investors. Besides the new rules on firing
costs, generous employment subsidies were introduced to incentivize the use of
open-ended contracts.
Another qualifying aspect of the reform scheme is the
introduction of a fast track for the settlement of dismissals (“conciliazione rapida”). The aim is to
promote consensual resolution of disputed terminations (as well as other
possible disputes). Contrary to other proposals for a “single contract” with
increasing firing costs, which would have introduced non-appealable
compensation, the reform scheme embraces the fast-track settlement model
introduced by the German and French employment protection legislations. The
latter, though, are different from the solution adopted in the Italian Jobs Act
as they don’t bind the court to award compensation according to a predetermined
schedule (which in the Jobs Act amounts to two months for each year of contract
tenure, up to a maximum of 24 months).
Unfortunately, this feature of the reform was declared illegitimate after
three years, in spring 2018, by the Italian Constitutional Court, and therefore
today the reforms are “dimezzate” (or
“hijacked”: the title of the book refers to the reversal of many reforms under the
new government, of which this case is
among the most serious).
The success of the reform is measured by the reduction
of court litigation in cases of dismissal (which was reduced by 80%, but
unfortunately began to rise again after the decision of the Constitutional
Court), and by the shortening of the amount of time young workers spend in
temporary contracts (that is, the average length of the initial part of one’s
career regulated by fixed-term contracts) and the resulting share of permanent
hiring among total hires. The expected substitution of fixed-term contracts
unfortunately has not happened: in 2014, roughly 70% of hiring was through
fixed-term contracts, and only 17% open-ended; in 2015 and 2016, the share of
open-ended contracts increased considerably, but in 2018, when the generous
employment subsidies ended, the share of new hiring in open-ended contracts
went back to the 2014 levels.
We made a mistake in allowing the coexistence of a
very liberal regime for fixed-term contracts and of the new open-ended contract
with increasing protection. Employers are reluctant to hire on open-ended
contracts, and if left with the easy outlet of fixed-term contracts, they will
not change their preferences. Furthermore, after having established a national
system of active labor market policies to favor the reallocation of workers
(after 20 years of debate, Italy finally has a national agency and a common
measure to manage active labor market policies across 20 regions), we were too slow
in the implementation process; as a result, public opinion has become aware of the
more liberal regime on firings but not the new policy of support through active
labor market policies.
While much of the reform process is now in reversal, when these very
incisive labor market reforms were introduced they faced no opposition and
Italy enjoyed four continuous years of employment growth (which has now been interrupted
under the new government).
Further details of the labor market reforms and my suggestions regarding future action can be found in the interview below. Additional information on some of the other reforms, including pensions, wage bargaining and measures against poverty, can be found in the book, only available currently in Italian.”
The interview
GLO: What were the essential elements of the Italian labor market reforms?
Marco Leonardi: The main policy tools of the
Jobs Act (and the main reversals under the new government since June 2018) can
be summarized as follows:
First, “Contratto a tutele crescenti,” i.e., the open-ended contract for new hires (from March 7, 2015), which eliminates the possibility of a worker’s reinstatement after illegitimate dismissal for economic motives (the so-called “article 18”) and embeds increasing monetary compensation in the case of separation. In this respect the Jobs Act marks a stark change with respect to the approach of flexibility at the margin (i.e., the tendency to liberalize the use of fixed-term contracts and leave open-ended contracts untouched by reforms) by reducing firing costs for permanent employment and by making them both predictable ex ante and increasing according to the worker’s tenure within the firm (two months for every month of tenure, starting from a minimum of four months and up to a maximum of 24 months). The Jobs Act is an example of “flexsecurity” in practice: it reduces dualism in the labor market and favors workers’ protection “in the market.”
Recently (in June 2018) the Constitutional Court declared illegitimate the rigid link between tenure and months of compensation in case of illegitimate firing, thus restoring the full discretion of judges in determining the amount of compensation (this will make firing costs uncertain again and the hiring permanent workers less convenient).
Recently (in June 2018) the Constitutional Court declared illegitimate the rigid link between tenure and months of compensation in case of illegitimate firing, thus restoring the full discretion of judges in determining the amount of compensation (this will make firing costs uncertain again and the hiring permanent workers less convenient).
Second, restrictions on self-employment arrangements (“co.co.co.,” “co.co.pro.,” etc.) used in the past to hire dependent workers while saving on both firing costs and social security contributions. In the three years during which the reforms were applied (2015–2018) we witnessed an increase in dependent employment and a decrease in the number of self-employed workers (from a record share of 25% of total employment): most of them took up a fixed-term contract but some of them transitioned to an open-ended contract, exploiting the very generous tax break for open-ended contracts activated in 2015 and 2016. Under the new government this trend has been reversed by a combination of three factors: the limits set by the new government on fixed-term contracts; the sentence of the Constitutional Court which has rendered dependent permanent employment contracts less convenient; and new tax breaks exclusively for the self-employed, which will soon cause the composition of employment to revert to a large share of self-employed.
Third, the reform of unemployment benefits, which have been extended both in terms of eligibility criteria and maximum coverage length, and the concurrent reduction of the short-time work compensation scheme that subsidizes employers that reduce hours of work during a temporary period of falling demand. The unemployment benefit reform aims to make benefits more generous and long-lasting and to include those with discontinuous or uneven employment histories. The reform of 2015 extended the benefits period to exactly half the number of weeks of contribution, up to 24 months. Employees can activate their individual right to a benefit if they have contributed for at least 13 weeks over the previous four years; this criterion has significantly relaxed the contributions requirement and has increased the number of potential beneficiaries to more than 95% of the employed population. The current government has not touched the benefits reform, but it has gone back to a generous regime of subsidies for firms that reduce hours of work. A generous short-time work scheme with loose rules on contributions risks keeping “zombie” firms alive for too long and keeping workers attached to them with little incentive to search for a new job.
Finally, fourth: Reform of active labor market policies, with the establishment of a national agency to coordinate the work of the regions (which have the competence over active labor market policies) and of a “re-training and placement voucher” (i.e., a voucher for placement services provided by both public and private operators), which introduces a quasi-market approach in active labor market policies. Unfortunately, the reform of active labor market policies never actually took off. The popular referendum, which should have moved the competence from the regions to the central state, failed, and the regions are jealous of their autonomy, with the result that the performance of the services is very patchy across Italy.
GLO: What are your recommendations for effective and successful labor reform policies?
Marco Leonardi: Use your political capital fast on your priorities, compensate unpopular reforms with popular ones and spend money to make reforms effective.
First, when you win an election, you may want to use your political capital immediately on your priorities before it is depleted. I think that the absence of strikes during the reform of the labor market was due to the “surprise” effect. Unions were prudent and waited to see what a young new leader of the center-left would bring about. If you aim at important issues (such as removing article 18) you may hope the reforms will endure, but you should expect that the next government will at least want to change the names of things in order to get credit for them.
Second, compensate for unpopular reforms with popular ones. We compensated for firing cost reforms with more unemployment benefits and active labor market policies. Unfortunately, we did not do enough on active labor market policies and we got the timing wrong: active labor market policies should have come prior to firing cost reform, because first you offer the carrot and then the stick and because active labor market policies require a long implementation period and the interaction of various actors: public employment services, the regional governments and private employment agencies.
Third, spend money to make reforms effective. We accompanied the abolition of article 18 with two dedicated measures in the 2015 budget law: (a) a three-year tax break for social security contributions, and (b) a corporate tax (IRAP) cut on labor costs applicable only to permanent contracts. This meant creating a cost wedge between permanent and temporary contracts. Conventional wisdom has it that one of the best ways to make the former more appealing is to make it cheaper than the latter. A generous tax break made a difference by incentivizing the use of permanent contracts and encouraged the perception that the reform was working.
GLO: What is your advice for the current phase of anti-reform sentiments?
Marco Leonardi: There could be two reasons why people seem to be adverse to reforms in many countries. The first might be because the reforms did not work or because they did not work for all in the same way. To make reforms work we need to focus on implementation: you may do less, but what you do must affect people’s lives in a simple way. Politicians often forget that somebody must take care of all the details of the implementation. Let’s take the example of a new measure against poverty for which the beneficiaries must fill in a new request module. Somebody must follow all the administrative processes that bring the law into effect, from the first parliamentary draft up to the implementation of the software to request the new subsidy online. No law produces real effects until the moment it is “online,” and there are several steps that must be taken to achieve this, including the involvement of the many administrations that have to do with the measure at various steps. Very often the laws are ineffective because their implementation is flawed, and a policy unit’s job is to watch over the laws until their implementation is complete.
The second issue regards the distribution of benefits. Many reforms are perceived as targeted at a few people rather than at everyone. In our time, when information is available to everybody through many of the same channels (TV and social media), it is important to stress the redistributive characteristics of all policy measures. In our case, the reform of the labor market occurred concurrently with a significant increase in the number of employed people (probably in part due to the reform itself), and yet people perceived the precariousness of the new jobs that had been created rather than their number. We should have highlighted more the redistributive feature of the reform (more people having a chance to find a job) rather than merely the increase in the number of those employed.
GLO: Thank you very much. (Questions by Klaus F. Zimmermann)
This year, the WageIndicator movement, Pauline Osseand the WageIndicator Foundation with all the teams in so many participating countries, can celebrate 20 years of successful activities around the globe. We take this opportunity to congratulate a great volunteer institution that has contributed to global transparency, understanding and well-being. We have asked the Director a few question about her organization and its work.
The Interview
Pauline Osse
Director Pauline Osse has been a journalist for all her life. She worked for various magazines, the Dutch trade union and as a freelancer before she created the WageIndicator movement.
Now, the WageIndicator Foundation is a global player producing an international trademark.
In 2017, Pauline Osse and her organization were supporters of the newly created Global Labor Organization (GLO) from the first hour.
GLO: To collect wage microdata through the internet was quite innovative two decades ago. What was the origin of your initiative?
The first trigger was
the insight that working people everywhere lacked access to adequate wage information. This became clear to me back in 1999 when I set up
the website for the Dutch trade unions. People wanted to know ‘what should I
earn, what can I ask, what is the going market rate for someone like me,
trucker, cleaning lady?’ And the unions could not give that information. What
the Collective Agreement said, yes, maybe, but not the real wage the market
would pay. For the real wages one needed large scale research. And nobody did
this for a lower level then CEO’s.
The second trigger was a
small benchmark tool available online at the time for the Dutch highly educated
white male employee. But what about me, a working women? And what about all the
other working women, taking care for our children, houses, family? Why only
information for the rich and highly educated? What about vulnerable groups at
the lower end of the labor market? And indeed, what about labor markets in
poorer countries? Why wasn’t there such a benchmark tool for everyone?
So I got in touch with Kea Tijdens, a specialist in gender studies at the University of Amsterdam and we sat together. Kea is great at designing surveys and knows how to structure data sets and handle microdata. I knew a bit about the internet already. We put 2 and 2 together and came up with our first online survey. It was 2000, the internet was still young. But it worked. The data we collected was enough to build a salary check, reflecting the real wages for specific occupations. We put our salary check online as a benchmark on a dedicated website and promoted it. This worked too. Ever since we have been refining and extending the salary check, the occupations covered, and the number of national websites. After 20 years – and over 100 countries – the salary check is still very much at the core of our activities.
GLO: You are about to become a truly global player. What brought the breakthrough and what are the major products?
We did not stop at
collecting microdata on real wages and – later – cost of living. Our websites
today have much more to offer than just microdata. We offer statutory minimum
wages, we have living wages for countries and regions within, we have a full
text – and coded Collective Agreement-database and sample Collective Agreements
to draw on, we have built and keep extending a country specific labor law
database with tailor-made information on social security and the like, now
covering 100 countries. Every step, every extension has been a response to what
our web visitors told us they needed. The pressing problems of people we met in
the field while doing offline research were also key in directing our work.
Our work essentially is
piecemeal engineering, really. So it is difficult to pinpoint breakthroughs.
But, as I remember it, a few moments stand out. Take for instance our first
extension abroad. In 2004 we rolled out national WageIndicator websites in 9
European countries. All had a salary check, our prime product. That first
extension abroad may be called a breakthrough: our idea worked there too!
By then we had already
decided that every next step, every extension should be designed and
constructed in such a way that all data was internally consistent and
compatible. Right from the start every tool we use has been of our own making
to make sure that all data and all information we elaborate adds up and is
internationally comparable. All data is coded, all clauses are annotated. As a
result of this early decision, today, as we speak, we run similar operations in
over 100 countries. And we hope to serve people in 150 countries in 2020.
I also remember vividly
Paraguay 2006. We met trade union members there, very poor people, and
explained what we were doing. Their reaction was: what is this talk about
minimum wage, maximum wage. The maximum here is the minimum wage, if we get it
at all. And we don’t even know what the minimum is! If there ever was an eye
opener, it was this one. So we started our collection of minimum wages and we
started it in India, with its highly complex patchwork of minimum wages. Today,
as a result, we offer the largest minimum wage database in the world within
easy reach of everyone, anywhere, including Paraguay. On average each month
50,000 people consult our website there: in Paraguay alone! And a majority
visit the minimum wage page first.
Around 2010 it became
clear that living wage data was in great demand too. But how to come by living
wages? What is a living wage? I thought that the best reference would have been
the wages from Collective Agreements. If anything, that wage level should be
enough to guarantee a decent living. If one supposed that the legal minimum
wage was too low, then one might use the Collective Agreement-wages as a
benchmark to eventually arrive at living wages. We should therefore offer a
simple negotiating tool, based on existing Collective Agreements. This internal
discussion resulted in two databases that we added to our salary check, minimum
wages and labor law database: a living wage concept of our own design and a
Collective Agreement-database from which we derive sample Collective Agreements.
Which brings me to our
Decent Work Check. It is based on labor law and has been inspired by people’s
pressing needs. During 2007 and 2008 in a dozen or so countries in Latin
America, East and West Africa we organized fact finding sessions in remote
rural areas. In order to structure the debate we handed out a small
questionnaire. It took participants a few minutes to fill out by ticking
multiple choice boxes. The answers added up to a score. This score told them
right away where they stood in terms of compliance with working conditions as
in their national labor law. Ten years later this tried and tested tool has
been used to create a factory-level survey for both Indonesia and Ethiopia,
where it has been applied to conduct face-to-face interviews with workers and
hr-staff in the garment sector. After consultation with factory owners the
compliance-with-the-law-results are published as factory pages on our national
websites in those two countries. The factory pages are seen as so called Worker Driven Social
Responsibility.
GLO: Nowadays, WageIndicator is a trademark. But it is not protected, so how do you survive?
Well, I don’t know about
the trademark, I couldn’t tell. But in Holland, after 20 years, we surely are a
household-name. And we know that our data is widely drawn upon and used by
policy makers, many small employers, multinationals, journalists and academics.
Even after 20 years, we stick to our policy of putting all our data online as
soon as we have double checked that it is accurate, factual and up to date. We
just have to offer more than others, be faster, better and transparent.
We always try to come up
with creative answers to people’s questions, even like: if you can do this, can
you also do that? Such questions also come from governments and multinationals,
but these don’t pay always. They simply assume that the data we publish is for
free, since it is published. Doing projects together is one way to raise
income. Selling data another.
GLO: Your venture has limited funds. So one does not get rich working for WageIndicator. How do you keep the spirit alive?
We want our data to
reach as many people as possible. We are motivated by the urge to liberate the
ordinary working women and men through empowerment by providing them with clear
cut information that helps them in taking their own decisions. To never take no
for an answer. So that they no longer depend on their parents, the trade union,
the government or any other authority to tell them what is possible and what
not.
This questioning reflex
surely comes from journalism, my trade. Why don’t workers automatically get the
information from the Collective Agreements concluded on their behalf, why do we
have to unearth legal minimum wage information and decipher labor law? Why is
is not made accessible in understandable language in the first place? This
information belongs to the people, by definition. It is unfair to keep it from
them. The way we present it makes them say: ah, now I understand what is in the
law for me, finally. And: I feel respected, thank you for that. This certainly
motivates our team.
We are an internet-based
micro multinational. Our team spirit is highly entrepreneurial. We are
builders. The gender angle that has been with us from the beginning is
reflected in the composition of our global team. Most have children. We make
our own creative flow. If we have the money, we invest in improvement and
extension. If we have less money we continue building and updating anyhow. You
can also look at us as a family enterprise. Even when some cherished team
members leave us, because of an attractive job offer elsewhere, they keep in
touch with the family, and continue with us by offering coaching and mentorship
for free, for ever. They stay with us in the same spirit. We are all about
diversity and inclusion. And the fact that in our daily work we do something
meaningful to liberate simple working people by giving them the information
they need, is a binding force as well.
GLO: What next innovations may we expect?
Perfect websites, perfect databases in 150
countries, many countries with good Collective Agreement databases, factory
pages giving overviews of compliance with the labor law. And a platform with
social protection tools for the platform workers.
The interview partner from GLO has been Klaus F. Zimmermann.
Stability in a dramatic phase of instability: Theresa May remains Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote the day after she has experienced “the largest defeat for a sitting government in history” on her Brexit deal with the EU in the British Parliament on Tuesday night (January 15, 2019). The country is deeply divided, the political system looks like a lame duck. What are the consequences for continental Europe?
Some people argue that the Brexit situation and the uncertainty will also harm the countries on the European continent. But there are also chances to develop Europe better. Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann have written broadly on European integration and the role of migration. Next to many scientific contributions and policy studies, they have also written some books together on the topic. Their views on the situation are below.
A recent survey among 1,693 adults in the UK has investigated the
options for the situation after a rejection of May’s Brexit deal. The
“no-deal”, cold Brexit is expected by 35%, while a “second referendum”
ranks only third with 21% behind 23% for “don’t know”.
Martin Kahanecis a Professor and Head of the School of Public Policy at the Central European University in Budapest. He is Founder and Scientific Director of CELSI, Bratislava, a Chairperson of the Slovak Economic Association and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
Klaus F. Zimmermann is Professor Emeritus of Bonn University, Honorary Professor of Maastricht University, the Free University of Berlin and Renmin University of China, Beijing. He is Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, and President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
The Views
GLO: Are you surprised about the large rejection of the Brexit deal?
Martin Kahanec: The landslide is perhaps a bit surprising, but there are several well-defined groups who had every reason to vote against the Brexit deal. One group are those, mainly from the Labor camp, who oppose May, or saw a “nay” as the only way to have a second referendum, or both. Among those who wish for a second referendum are probably a good number of conservatives, too. The other group is composed of those, primarily conservatives, who consider it a bad deal, not protecting the UK’s interests adequately. And then there is the DUP, who oppose the Northern Ireland backstop. It is hard to imagine a deal that would be accepted by some majority in the House of Commons and by the 27 EU member states as well, and with May investing very little in cross-party consensus building, the “nay” result was to be expected.
Klaus F. Zimmermann: Yes, this is kind of a Kamikaze behavior, untypical for a Parliament at fairly normal times. It has been know that the British MPs are quite critical about the EU, and the UK was never a friend of a political union in Europe. An acceptance of the May deal with the EU would have finalized the move out on March 29, at least on paper. Once out, one could have acted more radical. Now those responsible have to fear that the potentially large damage of a cold Brexit generates a stronger desire for a second referendum.
GLO: What do you expect to happen now, general elections, a new referendum, a cold Brexit, or else?
Martin Kahanec: I have no crystal ball. I hope for a new referendum, resulting in the UK remaining in the EU. With Corbyn as a staunch Brexiter at the helm of Labor, one important question is what is needed for him to reflect on the preferences of the majority of his party’s constituency, and turn Labor determinedly in favor of Remain. Whereas postponing Brexit by several months can give some time for what I see as forces of reason to take their effects, I am also afraid that a prolonged agony may further deepen the cleavages and sharpen the tensions in the British society, furthering its polarization, and leaving little space for consensus building. But a cross-party consensus, and strong leadership of the Speaker of the House, are very much needed to avoid a crash-Brexit and explore the options for a new deal or a second, possibly binding referendum.
Klaus F. Zimmermann:Now Theresa May wants to speak with all sides among the MPs. This seems a bit too late. Everybody in the Parliament fears general elections, not even the labor party can be sure to win in such a divided situation. The country is split in two nearly equal blocks with opposite positions. It is not even obvious that a second referendum will bring a strong majority for one side. Hence, my best guess is that the outcome is a cold Brexit. However, I think that this would be really a big problem. With such an important decision with very long-term consequences for the well – being of the people it is not a shame to think twice and to correct a mistake.
GLO: What are the consequences for Europe?
Martin Kahanec: On the one hand, the rejection of the deal is a lifeline for Remain hopes. On the other hand, the ultimate outcome is as unclear as ever. This uncertainty is very unhelpful for the European economy. If the UK leaves the EU, the economic consequences for the EU (and even more so for the UK) will be very much on the negative side. In particular, it will be a major challenge for the eastern member states of the EU. Hundreds of thousands of eastern Europeans work in the UK. Some of them will consider returning to their home countries. As they are primarily young, and have acquired many hard and soft skills in the UK, their return would help the labor markets and public budgets back home. However, they would likely be less productive in their home countries than in the UK, and so their incomes would go down. This and the reduced interstate mobility would also decrease productivity in Europe and hurt its capacity to absorb economic shocks. An abrupt return of large numbers of workers to the sending countries could exceed the capacity of their labor markets, social security and health care systems, and social services to absorb them, creating temporary congestion and resulting in tensions between returnees and their compatriots. The UK will also be hurt: it will lose many thousands of skilled, hard working men and women and talented students from eastern Europe. The UK is also a major trading partner and source of investment for the eastern member states. Brexit would significantly reduce the gains from that trade and investment for both parties.
Klaus F. Zimmermann: Never waste a crisis! Europe has better things to do, but forced to adjust there are two potentials: First, in the likely case of a cold Brexit, the damage for the UK will be substantial, and also the remaining EU will suffer. At least Scotland will try to leave the UK and seek to join the EU. This will signal to the 27 member states that it does not pay to leave. Further, it increases the incentives to develop the EU stronger and faster, in particular since the UK was always hesitant about a stronger political and economic integration and can no longer object. Second, if a cold Brexit does not happen because the British MPs fear the consequences, another referendum is likely. It can lead to a “Remain” and start a cultural change in the UK, where the British people better understand the benefits of the larger European Union. The EU could then be more dynamic than it otherwise would have been.
Martin Kahanec at CEU Budapest
Klaus F. Zimmermann at Renmin University Beijing
A recent survey among 1,693 adults in the UK has investigated the options for the situation after a rejection of May’s Brexit deal. The “no-deal”, cold Brexit is expected by 35%, while a “second referendum” ranks only third with 21% behind 23% for “don’t know”.
28th EBES Conference. May 29-31, 2019 in Coventry, United Kingdom Hosted by the Centre for Financial and Corporate Integrity (CFCI), Coventry University
Interested researchers are cordially invited to submit abstracts or papers for presentation consideration at the 28th EBES Conference in Coventry. It will take place on May 29th, 30th, and 31st, 2019 atCoventry University in Coventry, United Kingdom. The conference will be organized with the support of the Istanbul Economic Research Association and will be hosted by the Centre for Financial and Corporate Integrity (CFCI) in collaboration with the Coventry Business School Trading Floor.
To support the event, the Global Labor Organization (GLO) will organize three invited paper sessions. If you are a GLO Fellow or Affiliate and interested to be be included, please submit the title of a potential contribution to office@glabor.org until February 20, 2019.
Invited Speakers are David B. Audretsch, Marco Vivarelli and Klaus F. Zimmermann.
David B. Audretsch is a Distinguished Professor
at Indiana University, where he also serves as Director of the Institute
for Development Strategies. He is an Honorary Professor of Industrial
Economics and Entrepreneurship at the WHU-Otto Beisheim School of
Management in Germany and a Research Fellow of the CEPR in London. He
has also worked as a consultant to the UN, World Bank, OECD, EU
Commission, and U.S. Federal Trade Commission. Prof. Audretsch’s
research has focused on the links between entrepreneurship, government
policy, innovation, economic development, and global competitiveness. He
is co-author of The Seven Secrets of Germany (Oxford University Press)
along with several other books. He is co-founder and Editor-in-Chief
of Small Business Economics: An Entrepreneurship Journal and many other
journals. He was awarded the Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research
by the Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum (Entreprenörskapsforum). He has
received honorary doctorate degrees from the University of Augsburg in
Germany and Jonköping University in Sweden. Prof. Audretsch was also
awarded the Schumpeter Prize from the University of Wuppertal in
Germany. He has served as an advisory board member to a number of
international research and policy institutes, including Chair of
the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin(German Institute
for Economic Analysis Berlin), Chair of the Stifterverband für die
Deutsche Wissenschaft (Foundation for the Promotion of German Science)
in Berlin, Germany, and the Center for European Economic
Research (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) in Mannheim,
Germany etc. He has authored numerous papers which were published in
prestigious journals such as American Economic Review, European Economic
Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of
Management and his researches have been cited more than 77,000 (Google
Scholar). He holds a PhD in economics from University of Wisconsin,
Madison in U.S.A.
Marco Vivarelli, Ph.D. in Economics and Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy, is full professor at the Catholic University of Milano, where he is also Director of the Institute of Economic Policy. He is Professorial Fellow at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht; Research Fellow at IZA, Bonn; Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). He is member of the Scientific Executive Board of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES, Istanbul); member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO, Vienna) and has been scientific consultant for the International Labour Office (ILO), World Bank (WB), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the European Commission. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Business Review, Editor of Small Business Economics, Associate Editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, Associate Editor of Economics E-Journal, member of the Editorial Board of Sustainability and he has served as referee for more than 70 international journals. He is author/editor of various books and his papers have been published in journals such as Cambridge Journal of Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economics Letters, Industrial and Corporate Change, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Economics, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Labour Economics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Regional Studies, Research Policy, Small Business Economics, Southern Economic Journal, World Bank Research Observer, World Development. His current research interests include the relationship between innovation, employment and skills; the labor market and income distribution impacts of globalization; the entry and post-entry performance of newborn firms.
Publication Opportunities: Qualified papers can be
published (after refereeing) in the EBES journals (no submission and
publication fees). EBES journals (Eurasian Business Review and Eurasian
Economic Review) are published by Springer Nature and indexed by SCOPUS,
EBSCO EconLit with Full Text, Google Scholar, ABI/INFORM, ABS Academic
Journal Quality Guide, CNKI, EBSCO Business Source, EBSCO Discovery
Service, EBSCO TOC Premier, Emerging Sources Citation Index (Clarivate
Analytics), International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS),
OCLC, ProQuest Business Premium Collection, ProQuest Central, ProQuest
Turkey Database, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Summon by
ProQuest, Cabell’s Directory, and Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory.
Furthermore, qualified papers after review will be recommended to be
considered for publication in regular issues of the Journal of Corporate
Finance after a review process. However, presentation at the EBES
Conference does not guarantee publication in the Journal of Corporate
Finance.
Also all accepted abstracts will be published electronically in
the Conference Program and the Abstract Book (with an ISBN number). It
will be distributed to all conference participants at the conference via
USB. Although submitting full papers are not required, all the
submitted full papers will also be included in the conference
proceedings in the USB. After the conference, participants will also
have the opportunity to send their paper to be published in the
Springer’s series Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics (no
submission and publication fees).
This will also be sent to Clarivate Analytics in order to be reviewed
for coverage in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Social
Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). Please note that the 10th, 11th,
12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 19th EBES Conference Proceedings
were accepted for inclusion in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index
– Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH). 18th, 20th and subsequent
conference proceedings are in progress.
Important Dates Abstract Submission Deadline: February 28, 2019 Decision Communicated by: March 8, 2019* Registration Deadline: April 19, 2019 Announcement of the Program: April 30, 2019 Paper Submission Deadline (Optional): April 19, 2019** Paper Submission for the EBES journals: July 31, 2019 * The decision regarding the acceptance/rejection of each abstract/paper will be communicated with the corresponding author within a week of submission. ** Full paper submission is optional. If you want to be considered for the Best Paper Award or your full paper to be included in the conference proceedings in the USB, after submitting your abstract before February 28, 2018, you must also submit your completed (full) paper by April 19, 2019.
Contact: Ugur Can (ebes@ebesweb.org); Dr. Ender Demir (demir@ebesweb.org)
The Faculty of Economic Sciences and Business Administration within Transilvania University of Brasov, in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy cordially invites you to submit research papers for presentation and discussions at the third edition of the International Conference„Inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Challenges, measures and solutions” (ISEG 2019). The 2019 event is supported by the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
The conference will be hosted by Transilvania University of Brasov and will be held 31 May-1 June 2019 in the Transilvania University Hall, Street Iuliu Maniu no. 47A, Brasov.
The keynote speakers of the 2019 ISEG
conference are:
Klaus F. Zimmermann, President of the Global Labor
Organization (GLO); Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT; Full Professor of Economics
at Bonn University; Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Free University
of Berlin and Renmin University of China, Beijing.
Filomena Maggino, Full Professor at Sapienza University of Rome;
Editor-in-Chief of Social Indicators Research (Springer); Counsellor – Prime
Minister Office – Italian Government (Conte’s cabinet); Editor-in-Chief of
Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-being Research; Past-President of the
International Society for Quality Of Life Studies; President of the Italian
Association for Quality of Life Studies.
The meeting will be an excellent
opportunity for academics, researchers and doctoral students to present new
research results and to discuss challenging issues on the topics of conference.
The aim of this new series of conferences is to gather research interests and
to stimulate collaborative research around actual macro- and microeconomic
topics (as suggested below).
Topics:
We are inviting submissions of both empirical
and theoretical work that fits into the conference topics. Being a multi- and
interdisciplinary conference, we encourage submission of papers in the following
broad research areas: economics, finance, marketing and management. Examples of
suitable topics:
Economic
growth and convergence perspectives in the European Union: Measurement methods
and new empirical evidence
Public
and Private Finance Sustainability in the Context of Current Economic
Challenges
Issues
and challenges in the Romanian higher education
Challenges
and prospects of economic growth in South Eastern Europe
New
inequalities, multidimensionality and
growth pro-poorness
Business for sustainable development
New
approaches in marketing and management
Submission
Deadline for abstract submission is 1st of March, 2019, and for full paper submission is May 15th, 2019. Authors of accepted abstracts will be informed by the 1st of April, 2019.
Please submit your abstracts and full papers through the conference website!
Publication opportunities
All papers must be written and
presented in English. A blind review process apply to all submissions. During
the conference, one discussant will be assigned to each paper.
Accepted papers will be included
in the conference proceedings volume, which will be sent for being indexed by ISI Proceedings volume (CPCI –
Conference Proceedings Citation Index) under Clarivate Analytics (or former
Thomson Reuters).
Selected papers from the
conference may be subsequently published in one of the following journals, subject
to the agreement and decision of editors:
Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
Journal of Smart Economic Growth
Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov
Registration
The conference fee is 100 euro
for each paper. The conference fee must be paid until the 26th of
April by bank transfer, according to the indications which will be posted on
the conference website. The fee covers the book of abstracts, the attendance
certificate, as well as the access to all conference sessions, coffee breaks,
lunch and festive dinner.
Best paper award
The “Best Paper Award” is granted to the best paper in the
conference. Junior researchers are particularly encouraged to submit papers.
Updated information about the conference program, the organizing and scientific committees, and other related information will be posted on the conference website: http://unitbv.ro/iseg/
With a majority of 230 votes, the British Parliament has rejected the Brexit deal of Theresa May with the EUlate evening of Tuesday (January 15, 2019). This has been called by BBC as“the largest defeat for a sitting government in history”. This has caused two-sided hopes; while some now expect a hard Brexit without a transition phase, others still push for a second referendum to reverse the Brexit vote.
Most scientific observers of the ongoing spectacle over the last years typically see the facts different than the critics of the European Union and the migration flows, namely largely positive. They expect huge damage for the UK as for Europe in general. Such damage is already visible, although often ignored.
Immediately after the decison, GLO has contacted some of its prominent GLO Fellows, who have done serious research on the Brexit situation, including Nauro Campos and Jonathan Portes.
Nauro Campos, Professor of Economics at Brunel University London, Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and Research Professor at ETH-Zürich, is a also the Editor of the influential research journal Comparative Economic Studies.
Jonathan Portes is Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe, King’s College, London, and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
Jonathan Portes
Nauro Campos
The Interview
GLO: Are you surprised about the large rejection of the Brexit deal?
Nauro Campos: The most surprising thing in UK politics this week is how everything (so far) has occurred as predicted. Before the vote, there was certainty about the defeat but questions about its extent. At the lower-end, the estimated margin was about 160 votes (which would already make it a “historic defeat.”) SkyNews I believe held the upper-end with a defeat by about 225 votes. Thus 230 votes would be shocking only to those that don’t follow the debate closely (and it has been such a repetitive, shallow and infuriating debate that there are indeed many good reasons not to follow it.)
Jonathan Portes:Yes. Few expected quite such a heavy defeat – more than half of Conservative backbenchers rejected it as did almost the entire Parliamentary Labour Party. But the key is that while there was a huge majority against the deal, there is no majority for any particular alternative. Most Conservatives who voted against did so because they prefer No Deal, or think the EU27 will agree under the threat of No Deal to remove the so-called backstop. But most Labour MPs voted against because they want a permanent customs union, Single Market membership, or to remain in the EU.
GLO: What do you expect to happen now, general elections, a new referendum, a cold Brexit, or else?
Jonathan Portes: Nobody knows. The vote clearly increases the probability of No Deal – it also increases the probability of a second referendum. The key is whether the majority in Parliament that rejects No Deal will be able to decide on a single way forward, whether that’s Single Market membership/the “Norway option” or a second referendum. And that will depend on whether enough Conservative MPs are prepared to defy the strong views of their own membership and the obstinacy of Theresa May, who so far has proved entirely unwilling to seek a cross-party compromise.
Nauro Campos: I am writing this less than two hours after the result from the vote so, if predictability will rule this week in Westminster (for a change), than the prime minister will win the vote of no confidence tomorrow closing down a main avenue for a general election. Immediately after voting down the piece of legislation that gives May’s government the reason to be, the DUP (and one should soon expect the rest of the Conservative rebels to come along) said that tomorrow they will show themselves confident, instead. Clearly, it doesn’t matter confident in what. This is the stuff of populism and has been so for the last three years. A hard Brexit seems less likely this week but which of the other options may prevail (second referendum, revocation or extension of A50) should be easier to gauge this time on Monday (after the Prime Minister goes back to parliament with details of her proposed Plan B.)
GLO: What are the consequences for Europe?
Nauro Campos: I guess Europe will continue to do what it has been doing in the last few months regarding Brexit, namely, (1) to wait for Westminster to come to terms with the agreements it signed in December 2017 at the end of phase 1 of the negotiations and (2) continue to prepare for the worse case scenario (a no deal) but confidently showing that it is much better prepared for it than the UK currently is.
Jonathan Portes: The EU27 can do little except wait for the UK to sort itself out. There is little point in making minor changes to the deal on the table when the UK is so divided. We simply are not currently in a position to negotiate in a credible way. The sensible thing for the EU to do is to continue to prepare for No Deal, while being prepared to response positively when the UK – perhaps under a different Prime Minister or government – actually demonstrates that there is a Parliamentary majority for a specific way forward, particularly if it involves extending Article 50 to allow a second referendum, a general election, or some other process.
GLO: Gentlemen, thank you very much! And good night.
Note:GLO here is Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and President of the Global Labor Organization.
As of January 2019, the Eurasian Economic Review (EAER) has a new Editor-in-Chief, Dorothea Schäfer. EAER is one of the flagship journals of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES), which partners with the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Under the leadership of Schäfer, the EAER, while focusing on macro analysis and financial markets, also seeks to attract high quality research papers in macro labor and on the interrelationships between financial and labor markets. Klaus F. Zimmermann (GLO) spoke with Schäfer about her plans.
GLO: In your new role as Editor-in-Chief, where do you see the focus of the EAER under your leadership?
Dorothea Schäfer: The focus of EAER will be on financial markets and applied macro research. The journal has a broad scope in both focus areas. Finance topics may address such issues as financial systems and regulation, corporate and start-up finance, macro and sustainable finance, finance and innovations, consumer finance, public policies within local, regional, national and international contexts towards financial markets, money and banking and the interface of labor and financial economics. Macro economic research includes topics from monetary economics, labor economics, international economics and development economics, preferably but not exclusively, with a link to finance. Typically, the articles published in EAER highlight the economic, political and societal relevance of research results.
GLO: The challenges for the well-being of the world are not smaller today, than after the Great Recession. What can a journal like the EAER contribute to deal with those challenges?
Dorothea Schäfer: Asian countries were exposed to a deep financial crisis 10 years before the Lehman insolvency and had a long way to go before they recovered. Severe deficiencies in financial markets and financial regulations triggered the Lehman failure and the subsequent Great Recession. Many countries have still not fully recovered and new macro risks from trade wars, Brexit and a general loss of trust have evolved. Financial markets are part of those problems, but will also be part of the solutions. Therefore, understanding financial markets is of ever increasing importance for the well-being of the world. The EAER aims to support building the crucial knowledge by publishing rigorous, high-quality research.
GLO: What kind of papers do you wish to attract for EAER from researcher dealing with human resources issues?
Dorothea Schäfer: Papers dealing with the interaction between labor and financial markets are particularly welcome. But since the Journal has a macro focus in addition to finance articles on labor market issues in general are of interest for the journal.
Short Bio
Dorothea Schäfer, Dr. in Economics and habilitation in Business Economics, Research Director Financial Markets at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Adjunct Professor of Jönköping International Business School, Jönköping University (Sweden); Research Fellow of the Center for Relationship Banking and Economics CERBE, Roma, Italy. She is the Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasian Economics Review and a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
Dorothea Schäfer
Head of various research projects, inter alia, funded by the Leibniz Research Alliance Crises in a Globalised World, the Research Foundation of the German Savings banks, German Science Foundation, the EU Commission, the Fritz Thyssen Stiftung and the Stiftung Geld und Währung; Evaluator/reviewer of research programs/proposals for the German Science Foundation (DFG), EU Commission (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the LOEWE (Initiative for the Development of Scientific and Economic Excellence, State of Hesse).
She has published in Finance Research Letters, European Journal of Finance, Small Business Economics, Journal of Financial Stability, International Journal of Money and Finance, German Economic Review, Economics of Transition, the Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics and many other journals. Schäfer gave expert testimonies for the Commission to Review the Financing for the phase-out of nuclear energy in 2015, for the Finance Committee of the German Parliament (Deutsche Bundestag) (2010, 2011, 2012, 2018) and for the Committee on Social Affairs, Health and Sustainable Development, Parliamentary Assembly, The Council of Europe (2012). In 2012, she was also advisor to the Sub-Committee “Policy for a Sustainable Political and Economic Governance” (Nachhaltige Ordnungspolitik) of the Enquete Committee of the German Parliament, “Growth – Prosperity – Quality of Life” (Wachstum Wohlstand Lebensqualität).
In 2001 Schäfer and her co-author Franz Hubert received the Best Paper Award of the German Finance Association and 2002 the Best Paper Award of DIW Berlin. Main research interests are: financial and banking markets, systems and regulation, financial crisis, financial constraints, start-up finance and innovation, finance and labor, sovereign debt and Euro Area, gender and financial markets, household finance, green finance, crowd financing. Schäfer ranks in the European Union among the top 6% of researcher according to the RePEc ranking analysis in January 2019.
“We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the cultural assimilation of second-generation migrants. In our theoretical model, when mobility is free, individuals with a stronger taste for their native culture migrate temporarily. When immigration is restricted, however, these individuals are incentivized to relocate permanently. Permanent emigrants procreate in the destination country and convey their cultural traits to the second generation, who will therefore find assimilation harder. We test this prediction by using the 1973 immigration ban in Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a quasi-experiment. Since the ban only concerned immigrants from countries outside the European Economic Community, they act as a treatment group. According to our estimates, the Anwerbestopp has reduced the cultural assimilation of the second generation. This result demonstrated robustness to several checks. We conclude that restrictive immigration policies may have the unintended consequence of delaying the intergenerational process of cultural assimilation. “
Read further open access for a short period:
Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.
Kuznets Prize Winner 2019. The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.
Authors: Julia Jauer, Thomas Liebig, John P. Martin, Patrick A. Puhani
Abstract
” We estimate whether migration can be an equilibrating force in the labour market by comparing pre- and post-crisis migration movements at the regional level in both Europe and the United States, and their association with asymmetric labour market shocks. Based on fixed-effects regressions using regional panel data, we find that Europe’s migratory response to unemployment shocks was almost identical to that recorded in the United States after the crisis. Our estimates suggest that, if all measured population changes in Europe were due to migration for employment purposes—i.e. an upper-bound estimate—up to about a quarter of the asymmetric labour market shock would be absorbed by migration within a year. However, in Europe and especially in the Eurozone, the reaction to a very large extent stems from migration of recent EU accession country citizens as well as of third-country nationals.”
Read also open access for a short period:
Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.
Kuznets Prize Winner 2019. The paper is freely downloadable for a short period. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications.
The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics was announced and given at the #ASSA2019 meeting in Atlanta. The Award Study shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children, a finding which has important policy implications. In every year, the Prize is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. List of Kuznets Prize winners.
Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.
Yoo-Mi Chin
Interview with Author Yoo-Mi Chin, Professor of Economics at Baylor University
GLO: Is a rise of fertility after a disaster not the expected proper Malthusian response?
Yoo-Mi Chin: It is ambiguous whether we can clearly expect a Malthusian response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. It is true that population might recover from a positive check like diseases by increasing fertility. But after all, HIV is a sexually transmitted disease, and proliferation of HIV may lower fertility by inducing the use of contraception for safe sex. Further, HIV takes a heavy toll on working age adults. Like we see in the case of Black Death, as large-scale mortality causes labor shortages and subsequent higher wages, more women participate in labor market, which would lead to lower fertility. On the other hand, it is also possible that higher wages generate an income effect on the number of children. A lower life expectancy may increase fertility through lower returns to education and the child quantity-quality trade-off. Given such theoretical ambiguity, we find that an empirical examination of the issue is warranted.
GLO: How is fertility affected by a rise in the disease risk?
Yoo-Mi Chin: We find that a doubling of HIV prevalence increased total fertility rate by approximately 1.37 births and increased surviving children by approximately 0.38 children, using distance to the origin of the pandemic as an instrument for HIV prevalence. Although HIV/AIDS likely has increased child mortality, our findings suggest that the increase in births exceeded the increase in child mortality.
GLO: What are the policy implications?
Yoo-Mi Chin: The rise of the HIV/AIDS pandemic appears to have increased total fertility and the number of surviving children. Although the net effect of the pandemic on GDP per capita needs to be more thoroughly examined in future research, the increases in total fertility and the number of surviving children coupled with high mortality of working age adults could potentially lead to increases in dependency ratios and decreases in GDP per capita. Our results suggest that positive externalities generated by HIV prevention efforts might be larger than previously thought in that they contribute not only to reductions in HIV prevalence but also to reductions in total fertility, which could potentially enhance future welfare. Therefore, more resources for HIV prevention efforts are warranted.
The Story
Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.
Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.
The Author
Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.
YOO-Mi Chin and Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann during the award ceremony in Atlanta
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) announces a new Research Cluster on Development, Health, Inequality and Behavior and a new Country Lead for Switzerland.
The GLO Research Cluster Lead for Development, Health, Inequality and Behavior is Kompal Sinha. She is a Senior Lecturer and HDR Director at the Department of Economics of Macquarie University, Australia. Sinha is also an Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics. Her research deals with economic effects of consumer behavior, particularly in the area of health economics and development economics and the impacts on the design of economic policy.
Rainer Winkelmann is the GLO Country Lead Switzerland. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. He is a prominent researcher in the areas of count data econometrics and the economics of wellbeing. His research paper “Why Are the Unemployed So Unhappy?” (with Liliana Winkelmann) has received nearly 1,900 Google cites; his textbook Econometric analysis of count data many more than 1,500 Google cites. He also joins the Editorial Board of the Journal of Population Economics as an Associate Editor.
There are some changes in the editorial staff of the Journal of Population Economics. As of January 2019, Madeline Zavodny moved from the position of Associate Editor to Managing Editor joining Michaella Vanore in this role. Last summer, Oded Galor had changed roles from Associate Editor to Editor. The two free positions of Associate Editors are now filled by Shuaizhang Feng of Jinan University and Kompal Sinha of Macquarie University. All those are also GLO Fellows.
Madeline Zavodny is a Professor of Economics at the University of North Florida. Her research concentrates on economic issues related to immigration and the economic and demographic effects of immigration policies. She is a member of the editorial board of the International Migration Review and has served as co-editor of the Southern Economic Journal and a board member of the American Economic Association’s Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession. She received a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.A. in economics from Claremont McKenna College. She has frequently published in journals like the American Economic Review, Demography, Journal of Labor Economics, Health Economics, Journal of Health Economics, International Migration Review, Journal of Population Economics and Journal of Development Economics. See her personal website for further information.
Shuaizhang Feng is a Professor of Economics, and the Dean of the Institute of Economic and Social Research at the Jinan University. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from Cornell University. Before, he was a Professor at the School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His research interest is focused on labor economics and the Chinese economy, including issues relating to human capital, income inequality, migration and the labor market. He has frequently published in journals like the American Economic Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of Population Economics
Kompal Sinha is a Senior Lecturer and HDR Director at the Department of Economics of Macquarie University. She has worked before at the Center for Health Economics, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and Department of Economics at Monash University. She has received her Ph.D. from the Australian National University. Her research deals with economic effects of consumer behavior, particularly in the area of health economics and development economics and the impacts on the design of economic policy. She has frequently published in journals like Health Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, American Journal for Agricultural Economics, Social Science and Medicine, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Review of Income and Wealth and Journal of Biosocial Sciences.
The awarded study receiving the Kuznets Prize shows that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.
The Kuznets Prize Paper of the Journal of Population Economics in a particular year is selected by the Editors of the Journal among the papers published in the previous year. Then the winners will be presented in a prize ceremony. This time, the winners remained confidential until January 4, 2019. The prize committee for the 2019 award consisted out of Alessandro Cigno, Erdal Tekin, Junsen Zhang and Klaus F. Zimmermann selecting from the 2018 published articles they were in charge of as acting Editors.
Dean Shuaizhang Feng, Head of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) of Jinan University, had invited the members of the Global Labor Organizations (GLO) and the Kuznets Prize Ceremony of the Journal of Population Economics as other ASSA 2019 participants to join the reception of the Institute. IESR and GLO are collaborating organizations, and Shuaizhang Feng is a GLO Fellow and Associate Editor of the Journal.
GLO President Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal had visited Jinan University and IESR in March 2018 for a longer period and a GLO-IESR workshop. He had also presented the Journal in 2018 to various academic events in Beijing, Xiamen and Hongkong to strengthen the already strong contacts to the Chinese research community. A larger number of economists participated, including many Editorial Board Members of the Journal of Population Economics and Kuznets Prize winners of previous years.
Shuaizhang Feng reported about the activities of IESR and the hiring interviews at the ASSA job market and explained the attractive research climate at the Institute. He also warmly welcomed the affiliates of GLO and the Journal of Population Economics. Klaus F. Zimmermann congratulated Feng for the successful development of IESR and the strong research climate and the attractive working conditions he had observed while visiting the Institute in 2018 and met with the very many strong and ambitious researchers.
Zimmermann also welcomed the 2018 Kuznets Prize Winner, Le Wang (University of Oklahoma), who received the award together with Chunbei Wang (University of Oklahoma) for their article:
Both authors had studied and graduated at Jinan University before they came to the United States. Le Wang expressed his gratitude for receiving the Kuznets Prize and explained how it created visibility for his work.
Then the 2019 Kuznets Prize paper was announced. Studying the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries, it suggests that a rise in the disease risk increases the total fertility rate and the number of surviving children. This has important policy implications.
Abstract:
A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility
responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household
fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the
response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the
fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household
survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable
(IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest
that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the
number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about
the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS
pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic
has reduced GDP per capita.
Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.
Nicholas Wilson is a Fellow with the Office of Evaluation Sciences, an Associate Professor of Economics at Reed College and the Chair of the Department of Economics. He is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). His research focuses on fundamental puzzles about human behavior in the context of health, development, and behavioral economics. Prior to joining Reed College, he was a Visiting Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley and an Assistant Professor of Economics at Williams College. He has published a larger number of papers in journals including the American Economic Review, Demography, Economics & Human Biology, Journal of Development Economics and Journal of Health Economics.
Yoo-Mi Chin was present at the ceremony and happily took the prize. The large crowd of participants congratulated the prize winners and networked intensively within the remaining reception time.
Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson Yoo-Mi Chin & Klaus F. ZimmermannKlaus F. Zimmermann & Shuaizhang Feng
The School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China (Beijing) and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) had organized their First Joint Conference on the Chinese labor market on 20 and 21 October 2018 at Renmin University of China, Beijing. The conference series provides a platform for researchers working on topics related to the Chinese labor market, including migration, discrimination, health and well-being, education, environment and labor market policies. The event is part of the Chinese Labor Market Cluster of GLO headed by GLO Cluster LeadCorrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO), who is also a GLO Research Director.
GLO Cluster LeadCorrado Giulietti
Keynote speakers were Xin Meng (Australian National University & GLO) Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO ) Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University & GLO )
Xin Meng
Junsen Zhang
Klaus F. Zimmermann
The Program Committee consisted of Sylvie Démurger (French National Centre for Scientific Research & GLO ) Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University & GLO ) Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO ) Jun Han (Renmin University of China & GLO)
Sylvie Démurger
Shuaizhang Feng
Jun Han
The Organizers were: Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton & GLO ) Jun Han (Renmin University of China& GLO
The well organized event brought a larger number of labor economists interested in the Chinese labor market together for intensive two days of high quality academic exchange and social interactions to foster future research. All participants were very satisfied with the outcomes and are grateful for the work of the local organizing team led by Jun Han and the strong support of GLO FellowDean Weiguo Yang of Remin University of China.
Day 1: 20 October 2018
Zhong Zhao, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Corrado Giulietti
Corrado Giulietti, Jun Han
Corrado Giulietti
Zimmermann, Meng
Jun Han
Keynote: Intergenerational Behavioural Consequences of a Socio-Political Upheaval Xin Meng (Australian National University & GLO)
Session: “Labor Demand”Chair : Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China & GLO)
Workers’ Valuation of Workplace Flexibility: A Field Experiment Haoran He (Beijing Normal University), David Neumark (University of California at Irvine), Qian Weng (Renmin University of China)
A Curse or a Blessing: Long-term Effects of the Soviet Union Aid Plants to China Jingxuan Du (Renmin University of China), Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China & GLO)
To Upgrade or To Relocate? Explaining Heterogeneous Responses of Chinese Light Manufacturing Firms to Rising Labor Costs Fei Wang (Renmin University of China & GLO), Junjie Xia (Peking University), Jiajun Xu (Peking University)
Qian Weng
Fei Wang
Jingxuan Du
Zhong Zhao
Keynote: China’s One-Child Policy and Its Relaxation Effects on Fertility Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO)
Session: “Family Economics”Chair : Rufei Guo(Wuhan University & GLO)
The Effects of Children’s Gender Composition on Filial Piety and Old-Age Support Rufei Guo (Wuhan University & GLO), Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong & GLO)
Son Preference and Human Capital Investment Among China’s Rural-Urban Migrant Households Carl Lin (Bucknell University & GLO), Yan Sun (Beijing Normal University), Chunbing Xing (Beijing Normal University & GLO)
Rufei Guo
Chunbing Xing
Liqiu Zhao & Corrado Giulietti
Session: “Productivity and Innovation”Chair : Teng Li(National University of Singapore)
From Tradition to Modern: The Impact of Knowledge Diffusion on Idea Liu Xuke (Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences)
Non-linear Incentives and Worker Productivity: Evidence from a Quasi-experiment Richard Freeman (Harvard University), Wei Huang (National University of Singapore), Teng Li (National University of Singapore)
The Wage-productivity Nexus in the World Factory Economy Giovanni Dosi (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna & GLO), Maria Enrica Virgillito (Catholic University of Milan & GLO), Xiaodan Yu (University of Nottingham Ningbo China & GLO)
Teng Li
Xiaodan Yu
Liu Xuke
Day 2: 21 October 2018
Session: “Education”Chair : Haoran He (Beijing Normal University)
Labor Market Discrimination against Family Responsibilities: A Correspondence Study with Policy Change in China Haoran He (Beijing Normal University), Sherry Xin Li (University of Texas at Dallas), Yuling Han (Beijing Normal University)
Dynamics of Returns to Elite University Education: Evidence from Chinese Labor Market Sylvie Démurger (French National Center for Scientific Research & GLO), Eric A. Hanushek (Stanford University), Lei Zhang (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
Elite School Designation and House Prices: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Beijing, China Bin Huang (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics), Xiaoyan He (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics), Lei Xu (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Yu Zhu (University of Dundee & GLO)
Air Pollution, Student Health, and School Absences: Evidence from China Siyu Chen (National University of Singapore), Chongshan Guo (Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention), Xinfei Huang (International School of Business and Finance)
Haoran He
Lei Zhang
Yu Zhu
Siyu Chen
Fei Wang
Chongshan Guo
Keynote: Recent Labor Market Research on China Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Renmin University of China & GLO)
Conclusions and Farewell : The intention is to organize the next joint workshop in October 2019.
