Category Archives: Discussion Paper

How effective is community quarantine in the Philippines? A quasi-experimental analysis in a new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Marjorie Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño Vasquez.

February 19, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies whether the different types of lockdown measures imposed at different periods and areas in the Philippines were effective in mitigating the pernicious effects of COVID-19.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 782, 2021

How effective is community quarantine in the Philippines? A quasi-experimental analysis – Download PDF
by Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A

GLO Fellow Marjorie Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño Vasquez

Author Abstract: As the world races to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as voluntary social distancing and community quarantine (CQ) have been the first line of defense in breaking the chains of transmission in most countries. The efficacy of a public health measure, however, depends on a myriad of factors including its timing and optimal implementation, the proclivity of individuals in following protocols and information dissemination. We examine whether the different types of CQ imposed at different periods and areas in the Philippines are effective in mitigating the pernicious effects of COVID-19 while controlling for other confounding factors. Our natural experiment (difference-in-differences fixed effects) using panel data that we constructed results in the following. First, a lockdown is effective only in reducing COVID-19 incidence and mortality when combined with health capacity and sociodemographic characteristics that could potentially capture preferences to comply. Second, the efficacy of a CQ persists over time but it is somewhat reduced. Third, heterogeneity in the effectiveness of a quarantine exists across the different types of CQ, with a stricter CQ apparently more effective. Fourth, the number of nurses and other health care workers, urbanity and population matter in improving the health outcomes of areas under quarantine.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

How Does the Dramatic Rise of CPS Non-Response Impact Labor Market Indicators? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow David Munro and colleagues.

February 18, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the non-response rise in the important US CPS data set is caused largely by partially-responding households. The rising refusals artificially suppressed the measured labor force participation rate, among other effects.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 781, 2021

How Does the Dramatic Rise of CPS Non-Response Impact Labor Market Indicators? – Download PDF
by Bernhardt, Robert & Munro, David & Wolcott, Erin

GLO Fellow David Munro

Author Abstract: Since 2010 and before the pandemic hit, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show that partially-responding households – households that respond to some but not all of the survey’s eight panels – account for most of the rise. Leveraging the labor force status of partially-responding households in the months surrounding their non-response, we find that rising refusals artificially suppressed the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio but had little discernible effect on the unemployment rate. Factors robustly correlated with state-level refusal rates include a larger urban population, a smaller Democratic vote share (our proxy for sentiment towards government), and the economic and social changes brought about by manufacturing decline.

Featured image: Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Job Training, Remote Working, and Self-Employment: Displaced Workers Beyond Employment Hysteresis. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Enrico Santarelli and Chiara Natalie Focacci.

February 17, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that employees who are under a dual condition of stress, the coronavirus pandemic and the risk of job loss, respond with training efforts.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 780, 2021

Job Training, Remote Working, and Self-Employment: Displaced Workers Beyond Employment Hysteresis – Download PDF
by Focacci, Chiara Natalie & Santarelli, Enrico

GLO Fellow Enrico Santarelli

Author Abstract: The recent SARS-Cov-2 pandemic has contributed to several corporate crises. As a result, many Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Italy have filed for bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2020. In addition to a gigantic macroeconomic effect, the lockdown has impacted individuals to a large extent. In this article, we investigate the behavioral response of employees who are under a dual condition of stress; namely, the pandemic and the risk of job loss. The hypothesis of employment hysteresis is challenged by looking at the tendency of individuals who are employed in firms facing a crisis, or in difficulty, to participate in training measures for: a similar job, remote working, and self-employment. Findings from a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model show a significant increase in the likelihood to participate in standard or high-commitment training measures for similar jobs and remote working for employees who: i) positively value their professional social capital, i.e. their membership in a trade union (+24.4 and +25.2 percentage points, respectively); ii) have some displaced colleagues (+29.6 and +40.7 percentage points, respectively). Finally, we find that employees with a lower educational background are less likely to consider the possibility of switching between occupations.

Featured image: Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Pandemics and Intergenerational Mobility of Education: Evidence from the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Epidemic in China. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Sen Xue and Wenquan Liang.

February 16, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for China that the SARS epidemic in 2003 significantly increased the intergenerational transmission of education, and hence inequality.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 779, 2021

Pandemics and Intergenerational Mobility of Education: Evidence from the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Epidemic in China – Download PDF
by Liang, Wenquan & Xue, Sen

GLO Fellow Sen Xue

Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2003 on intergenerational mobility in China. Using large cross-city variation in SARS cases, our triple difference-in-differences estimates suggest that the SARS epidemic significantly increases the intergenerational transmission of education. Our results show that a one percent increase in the number of SARS cases leads to a 9.3 percent increase in the maternal intergeneration transmission coefficient. The effect of the SARS epidemic is stronger for admission to 4-year bachelor programmes and more concentrated in female students and students in large cities. This paper also investigates the potential mechanisms and finds that more highly educated mothers tend to be more engaged in children’s studies during the epidemic period when teachers are absent. These results convey the warning message that pandemics may reduce intergenerational mobility of education.

Featured image: Kimberly-Farmer-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Differences in African Banking Systems: Causes and Consequences. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer & GLO Affiliate Samuel Mutarindwa and Andreas Stephan.

February 15, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper links the African banking system development to the colonial and legal history of the respective countries.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 778, 2021

Differences in African Banking Systems: Causes and Consequences – Download PDF
by Mutarindwa, Samuel & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas

GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer & GLO Affiliate Samuel Mutarindwa

Author Abstract: This paper links banking system development to the colonial and legal history of African countries. Based on a sample of 40 African countries from 2000 to 2018, our empirical findings show a significant dependence of current financial institutions on the inherited legal origin and the colonization type. Findings also reveal that current financial legal institutions are not major determinants of banking system development, and that institutional development and governance quality are more important. A high share of government spending relative to GDP also positively affects banking system development in African countries.

Ends;

Cognitive Impairment and Prevalence of Memory-Related Diagnoses among U.S. Older Adults. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Xi Chen & colleagues.

February 14, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the relationship between incident cognitive impairment and receipt of diagnosis among American older adults. It calls for targeted interventions to improve the rate of early diagnosis, especially among vulnerable populations.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 777, 2021

Cognitive Impairment and Prevalence of Memory-Related Diagnoses among U.S. Older Adults – Download PDF
by Qian, Yuting & Chen, Xi & Tang, Diwen & Kelley, Amy S. & Li, Jing

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Author Abstract: Cognitive impairment creates significant challenges to health and well-being of the fast-growing aging population. Early recognition of cognitive impairment may confer important advantages, allowing for diagnosis and appropriate treatment, education, psychosocial support, and improved decision-making regarding life planning, health care, and financial matters. Yet the prevalence of memory-related diagnoses among older adults with early symptoms of cognitive impairment is unknown. Using 2000-2014 Health and Retirement Survey – Medicare linked data, we leveraged within-individual variation in a longitudinal cohort design to examine the relationship between incident cognitive impairment and receipt of diagnosis among American older adults. Receipt of a memory-related diagnosis was determined by ICD-9-CM codes. Incident cognitive impairment was assessed using the modified Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status (TICS). We found overall low prevalence of early memory-related diagnosis, or high rate of underdiagnosis, among older adults showing symptoms of cognitive impairment, especially among non-whites and socioeconomically disadvantaged subgroups. Our findings call for targeted interventions to improve the rate of early diagnosis, especially among vulnerable populations.

Featured image: Mark-Timberlake-on-Unsplash

Ends;

The impact of harmonizing Australia’s workplace health and safety laws on workers compensation. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Anam Bilgrami & Kompal Sinha, and Henry Cutler.

February 13, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that harmonization reduced the probability of receiving workers compensation in treated states by 0.9 percentage points.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 773, 2021

The impact of harmonising Australia’s workplace health and safety laws on workers compensation – Download PDF
by Bilgrami, Anam & Cutler, Henry & Sinha, Kompal

GLO Fellows Anam Bilgrami & Kompal Sinha

Author Abstract: We analyse the impact of harmonising workplace health and safety laws in Australia on workplace injury and disease by estimating effects on the probability of receiving workers compensation in the past year. The introduction of the reform in all but two Australian states created a unique, region-based natural experiment. We exploit this regional variation to perform difference-in-difference estimation on a panel data sample of workers from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, accounting for a diverse range of individuallevel covariates associated with workers compensation claiming. We find harmonisation reduced the probability of receiving workers compensation in treated states by 0.9 percentage points (p=0.047). This is likely to have resulted from increased enforcement activity by state governments and increased managerial focus on improving workplace health and safety. Subgroup analysis suggests the high-risk construction industry had a larger and more significant reduction of 2.9-3.6 percentage points (p=0.030). We suggest the construction industry had a greater potential for achieving reductions in workplace injury and disease due to a higher level of underlying workplace risk and the introduction of construction specific legislative requirements imposed by harmonisation.

Featured image: Jordan-Whitt-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Citizens’ Opinions of and Experiences with Government Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Cuong Nguyen and colleagues.

February 12, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides findings of a population survey in Vietnam confirming an overall positive feedback from citizens with the government’s response and support package in spite of drastic economic damages.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 776, 2021

Citizens’ Opinions of and Experiences with Government Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam – Download PDF
by Do, Huyen Thanh & Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Long Thanh & Nguyen, Phuong Minh & Ngo, Quyen Ha & Phung, Quyen Ha

GLO Fellow Cuong Nguyen

Author Abstract: The study aims to understand the impact of COVID-19 on citizens’ livelihoods, the accessibility and effectiveness of the Government’s relief packages, and public confidence and trust in the government responses to the pandemic. The study reveals several important findings as follows. First, the government responses to contain the COVID-19 outbreak have proved to be swift and effective, according to citizens surveyed. This is evident in the respondents’ high consensus of strong support for government policy and actions to contain the pandemic. Importantly, people who have positive experiences with their provincial performance in governance and public administration were more supportive of the government’s responses during the pandemic. Second, despite such government and citizen responses, the COVID-19 pandemic has generated negative impacts on the Vietnamese citizens and the national economy as a whole. The survey findings reveal that 24 percent of the respondents reported job losses because of the pandemic. These are also 65 percent of the respondents reporting income loss. Third, the findings of the survey reaffirm an overall positive feedback from citizens of and experience with the government’s support package. People who received supports from the package were more likely to support the government’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ends;

The Impact of Mass Antigen Testing for COVID-19 on the Prevalence of the Disease. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Martin Kahanec and colleagues.

February 11, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. A new GLO Discussion Paper has shown that this had reduced infections substantially.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 775, 2021

The Impact of Mass Antigen Testing for COVID-19 on the Prevalence of the Disease – Download PDF
by Kahanec, Martin & Lafférs, Lukáš & Schmidpeter, Bernhard

GLO Fellow Martin Kahanec

Author Abstract: More than a year since the first outbreak in China in December 2019, most countries are still struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Mass antigen testing has been proposed as an instrument to mitigate the spread of the disease and allow the economy to re-open. We investigate the potential benefits of mass antigen testing for the mitigation of the pandemic, using data from a uniquely designed testing that took place in Slovakia in autumn 2020. As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. After the first round of nation-wide testing, only districts above an ex-ante unknown prevalence threshold were re-tested. Comparing districts in the neighborhood above and below the threshold using a quasi-experimental design, we find that repeated mass antigen testing reduces infections by about 25-30% and results in a decrease in R0 of 0.3 two weeks after the testing. These effects peaked about 15 days after the second round of testing and gradually dissipated afterward. These results suggest that mass testing could be an effective tool in curbing the spread of COVID-19, but for lasting effects it would need to be conducted regularly in relatively short intervals.

Featured image: Mufid-Majnun-on-Unsplash

Ends;

On the Effects of COVID-19 Safer-At-Home Policies on Social Distancing, Car Crashes and Pollution. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur and colleagues.

February 10, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the impacts of COVID-19 safer-at-home polices on collisions and pollution to find that both are substantially reduced.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 774, 2021

On the Effects of COVID-19 Safer-At-Home Policies on Social Distancing, Car Crashes and Pollution – Download PDF
by Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor

GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of COVID-19 safer-at-home polices on collisions and pollution. We find that statewide safer-at-home policies lead to a 20% reduction in vehicular collisions and that the effect is entirely driven by less severe collisions. For pollution, we find particulate matter concentration levels approximately 1.5µg/m3 lower during the period of a safer-at-home order, representing a 25% reduction. We document a similar reduction in air pollution following the implementation of similar policies in Europe. We calculate that as of the end of June 2020, the benefits from avoided car collisions in the U.S. were approximately $16 billion while the benefits from reduced air pollution could be as high as $13 billion.

Featured image: Ella-Ivanescu-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Will it be a shecession? The unintended influence of working from home on the gender wage gap related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo and Sergio Scicchitano.

February 9, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the influence of the working from home attitude of occupations on the gender wage gap in Italy to find that the gap is greater among females working in an occupation with a high level of the home attitude.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 771, 2021

Will it be a shecession? The unintended influence of working from home on the gender wage gap related to the COVID-19 pandemic – Download PDF
by Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellows Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo and Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: Working from home (WFH) has become a key factor during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in countries that have implemented severe social distancing measures. This paper investigates the potential influence of the working from home attitude of occupations on the gender wage gap (GWG) reported by Italian employees, on average and along the distribution. Based on Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions and unconditional quantile regressions, our results show that the GWG is greater among females working in an occupation with a high level of WFH attitude, thus among those more likely to be affected by a (probably) persistent spread of WFH procedures after the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, we find evidence of both sticky floor and glass ceiling effects for employees with a high WFH attitude and only a sticky floor effect for the group with a low WFH attitude. The positive association revealed between the level of WFH attitude and the GWG appears particularly strong among older and married female employees, as well as among those working in the private sector. Finally, this study confirms that allocating adequate resources to programmes and instruments that aim to achieve genderrelated goals is strongly recommended.

Featured image: Photo-by-Charles-Deluvio-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Democracy and COVID-19 Outcomes. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Gokhan Karabulut, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin and Asli Cansin Doker & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann.

February 8, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that while the infection rates of Covid-19 do indeed appear to be higher for more democratic countries so far, their observed case fatality rates are lower.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 770, 2021

Democracy and COVID-19 Outcomes – Download PDF
by Karabulut, Gokhan & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin

GLO Fellows Gokhan Karabulut, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, Asli Cansin Doker & GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann

Author Abstract: More democratic countries are often expected to fail at providing a fast, strong, and effective response when facing a crisis such as COVID-19. This could result in higher infections and more negative health effects, but hard evidence to prove this claim is missing for the new disease. Studying the association with five different democracy measures, this study shows that while the infection rates of the disease do indeed appear to be higher for more democratic countries so far, their observed case fatality rates are lower. There is also a negative association between case fatality rates and government attempts to censormedia. However, such censorship relates positively to the infection rate.

Featured image: fusion-medical-animation-rnr8D3FNUNY-unsplash

Ends;

Microchip Bags and Waste Sorting. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Matteo Picchio.

February 7, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Italy that placing microchips on the bags for the curbside collection to reduce the unsorted urban solid waste and increase the fraction recycled is indeed effective.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 772, 2021

Microchip Bags and Waste Sorting – Download PDF
by Picchio, Matteo

GLO Fellow Matteo Picchio

Author Abstract: We evaluate the effectiveness of placing microchips on the bags for the curbside collection in reducing the unsorted urban solid waste and increasing the fraction recycled. The microchip allows the waste collection company to identify the users that left the bags on the curb and check whether they properly sorted the waste. Our study is carried out in the Italian province of Macerata (Marche, Italy), where the bag microchips were introduced only in some municipalities in 2013. Exploiting monthly information on waste collection and natural experiment methods, we find that, two years after the programme start, the bag microchip increased the fraction recycled by 3-4:5 percentage points and decreased the monthly unsorted waste by 1-2 kilograms per capita.

Ends;

Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: Lessons from Portugal. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Hugo Reis, Joop Hartog and Pedro S. Raposo.

February 6, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education in Portugal to find no support for the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles and no support either for the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 769, 2021

Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: lessons from Portugal – Download PDF
by Hartog, Joop & Raposo, Pedro S. & Reis, Hugo

GLO Fellow Hugo Reis

Author Abstract: We document and analyze the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education in Portugal between 1994 and 2013. As Portuguese workers have been educated in different school systems, we have to distinguish birth cohorts. Analyzing the wage gaps within cohorts, we find no support for the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles and no support either for the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career. We discover that the lifecycle wage profiles have shifted over time. We link the pattern of shifting cohort profiles to changes in the school system and in the structure of labor demand. We conclude that assessing the relative value of vocational education requires to assess how the vocational curriculum responds to changes in economic structure and technology. We show that the decline in assortative matching between workers and firms has benefited vocationally educated workers.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mikael-Kristenson-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Australia: Ethnic identity and immigrants’ labour market outcomes. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Director Matloob Piracha, and GLO Fellows Massimiliano Tani, Zhiming Cheng, and Ben Wang.

February 5, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Australia that ethnic identity is strongly associated with employment and wages as well as with a number of job satisfaction measures.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 767, 2021

Ethnic identity and immigrants’ labour market outcomes – Download PDF
by Piracha, Matloob & Tani, Massimiliano & Cheng, Zhiming & Wang, Ben Zhe

GLO Director Matloob Piracha
GLO Fellows Massimiliano Tani, Zhiming Cheng, and Ben Wang

Author Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyse how immigrants’ ethnic identity correlates with their labour market outcomes. More precisely, we estimate the role of ethnic identity in employment, wages, under-employment (i.e., they would prefer to work more hours but are not given the opportunity), three measures of job satisfaction, overeducation and wages. We further explore whether economic downturn has a differentiated impact on our measures. Using Australian longitudinal data, we find that ethnic identity strongly is associated with employment and wages as well a number of job satisfaction measures. We then split our data and repeat the estimations for before and after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09. We find important differences in the way ethnic identity is associated with different measures of labour market outcomes under different economic conditions. Finally, we explore the mechanisms through which some of results could be explained.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jordan-Whitt-on-Unsplash

Ends;

The role of Great Recession on income polarization by population groups. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Chiara Assunta Ricci and GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano.

February 4, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Italy that young people and especially foreigners have suffered the most from the Great Recession.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 766, 2021

The role of Great Recession on income polarization by population groups – Download PDF
by Ricci, Chiara Assunta & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: In this paper we use two different non-parametric methods to disentangle the role of Great Recession on income polarization in Italy by population groups (gender, occupational status, education, age, residential area and state of birth). By using data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy, first, we decompose the Duclos, Esteban and Ray polarization index by population groups. Second, we employ the Relative Distribution Approach by groups. Our results show a general downgrading, particularly of lower incomes, where low-educated, young, southern and foreign head of household are located out of the crisis. Young people and especially foreigners have suffered the most from the crisis. The lowest (highest) homogeneity within groups and the lowest (highest) heterogeneity between groups is observed when groups are formed on the basis of the state of birth (residential area).Thus, the decomposition of the polarization indices by population groups is able to provide specific useful policy indications, tailored to groups’ needs.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

Ends;

The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis in a new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes.

February 3, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper analyzes the effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans’ health outcomes and finds for volunteers statistically significant detrimental health effects that appeared 20 years after the end of the conflict.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 764, 2021

The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis – Download PDF
by Wang, Xintong & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso

GLO Fellows Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Author Abstract: We analyze the short- and long-term effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans’ health outcomes using a restricted version of the National Health Interview Survey 1974-2013 and employing the draft lotteries as an instrumental variable (IV). We start by assessing whether the draft lotteries, which have been used as an IV in prior literature, satisfy the exclusion restriction by placing bounds on its net or direct effect on the health outcomes of individuals who are nonveterans regardless of their draft eligibility (the “never takers”). Since we do not find evidence against the validity of the IV, we assume its validity in conducting inference on the health effects of military service for individuals who comply with the draft-lotteries assignment (the “compliers”), as well as for those who volunteer for enlistment (the “always takers”). The causal analysis for volunteers, who represent over 75% of veterans, is novel in this literature that typically focuses on the compliers. Since the effect for volunteers is not point-identified, we employ bounds that rely on a mild mean weak monotonicity assumption. We examine a large array of health outcomes and behaviors, including mortality, up to 40 years after the end of the Vietnam War. We do not find consistent evidence of detrimental health effects on compliers, in line with prior literature. For volunteers, however, we document that their estimated bounds show statistically significant detrimental health effects that appear 20 years after the end of the conflict. As a group, veterans experience similar statistically significant detrimental health effects from military service. These findings have implications for policies regarding compensation and health care of veterans after service.

Featured image: Photo-by-Stijn-Swinnen-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Routine biased technological change and wage inequality: do workers’ perceptions matter? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano and colleagues.

February 2, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows for Italy that non-routine workers earn always significantly more than routine workers.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 763, 2021

Routine biased technological change and wage inequality: do workers’ perceptions matter? – Download PDF
by Vannutelli, Silvia & Scicchitano, Sergio & Biagetti, Marco

GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: The Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC) has been called as a relatively novel technology-based explanation of social changes like job and wage polarization. In this paper we investigate the wage inequality between routine and non-routine workers along the wage distribution in Italy. Thanks to unique survey data, we can estimate the wage differential using both actual and perceived level of routine intensity of jobs to classify workers. We adopt semi-parametric decomposition techniques to quantify the importance of characteristics of workers in explaining the gaps. We also employ non-parametric techniques to account for self-selection bias. We find evidence of a significant U-shaped pattern of the wage gap, according to both definitions, with non-routine workers earning always significantly more than routine workers. Results show that workers’ characteristics fully explain the gap in the case of perceived routine, while they account for no more than 50% of the gap across the distribution in the case of actual routine. Thus, results highlight the importance of taking into account workers’ perceptions when analyzing determinants of wage inequality. Overall, we confirm that, after leading to job polarization, RBTC induced a similar polarizing effects on wages in Italy.

Featured image: Photo-by-Alex-Knight-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Age Effects in Education: A Double Disadvantage for Second-Generation Immigrant Children. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Giuseppe Russo and colleagues.

February 1, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper shows for Italy that immigrant children face a double disadvantage reducing school performance in Italian and Math substantially.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 761, 2021

Age Effects in Education: A Double Disadvantage for Second-Generation Immigrant Children– Download PDF
by Abatemarco, Antonio & Cavallo, Mariagrazia & Marino, Immacolata & Russo, Giuseppe

GLO Fellow Giuseppe Russo

Author Abstract: A double disadvantage occurs when the interaction of two disadvantages generates an additional disadvantage. We show that second-generation immigrant children in the Italian primary school experience a double disadvantage that, relative to the average native, reduces scores in Italian by 17% and in Math by 20%. The double disadvantage stems from the interaction of the immigration background with age effects (namely, Absolute Age Effect and Relative Age Effect). In a policy perspective, we show that controlling for age effects in class composition criteria pursues integration because it delivers extra benefits to second-generation immigrant children. Besides, we point out the possibility of exploiting the larger impact of the relative age on second-generation children in order to support their performance and reduce the large penalization associated to the immigration background.

Featured image: Photo-by-Element5-Digital-on-Unsplash-

Ends;

Calling Older Workers Back to Work. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli and colleagues.

January 31, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper relates the rising share of older workers in advanced countries to gains in educational attainment, changes in labor market policies (such as the tax benefit system, and pension reforms), as well as (although moderated by automation) to urbanization and the increasing role of services.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 762, 2021

Calling Older Workers Back to Work – Download PDF
by Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia

GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli

Author Abstract: Population aging in advanced economies could have significant macroeconomic implications, unless more individuals choose to participate in labor markets. In this context, the steep increase in the share of older workers who remain economically active since the mid- 1990s is an overlooked yet encouraging trend. We identify the drivers of the rise in participation of the elderly relying on cross-country and individual-level data from advanced economies over the past three decades. Our findings suggest that the bulk of the increase in their participation is driven by gains in educational attainment and changes in labor market policies, such as the tax benefit system, and pension reforms. Urbanization and the increasing role of services also contributed, while automation weighed on their participation.

Featured image: Mark Timberlake on Unsplash

Ends;

Unemployment and subjective well-being. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Nicolai Suppa.

January 30, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper summarizes the latest state of the art in economic research on unemployment and subjective well-being.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 760, 2021

Unemployment and subjective well-being – Download PDF
by Suppa, Nicolai

GLO Fellow Nicolai Suppa

Author Abstract: This chapter summarizes the latest state of the art in economic research on unemployment and subjective well-being. Outcomes covered are general life satisfaction, affective well-being, and mental health. Special attention is paid to empirical evidence as obtained from popular panel data sets. Both prominent methodological issues and substantive themes are introduced. Topics covered include the estimation of non-pecuniary costs of unemployment, unemployment over time, the role of others’ unemployment, spill-over effects, and re-employment, among others.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Temporary International Migration, Shocks and Informal Insurance: Analysis Using Panel Data. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Tanika Chakraborty and Manish Pandey.

January 29, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that international migration of households in Kyrgyzstan increases with a drought shock but declines with winter and earthquake shocks.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 759, 2021

Temporary International Migration, Shocks and Informal Insurance: Analysis using panel data – Download PDF
by Chakraborty, Tanika & Pandey, Manish

GLO Fellow Tanika Chakraborty

Author Abstract: We use panel data for rural Kyrgyzstan to examine households’ international migration response when faced with shocks. Using a household fixed effects regression model, we find that while a drought shock increases the likelihood of migration, winter and earthquake shocks reduce the likelihood of migration. We use a simple theoretical framework to illustrate the trade-off between two effects of a shock for a household: loss of income and increase in the need of labor services. We show that migration increases when the former effect of a shock dominates, it reduces when the latter effect dominates. We explore these mechanisms by examining how the migration-response to shocks changes in the presence of alternate coping mechanisms and by evaluating the effect of shocks on a household’s decision to send and recall a migrant member. We find that when households have easier access to informal finance the migration-response is muted only for shocks for which the adverse income effect dominates. Our findings also suggest that while shocks for which the loss of income effect dominates have a greater effect on the decision to send a migrant, shocks for which the need of labor services effect dominates only affect the decision to recall a migrant. These findings provide evidence in favor of the proposed mechanisms through which shocks affect temporary migration.

Featured image: Photo-by-Wesley-Tingey-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Fiscal Position of Immigrants in Europe: A Quantile Regression Approach in a new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Majlinda Joxhe and colleagues.

January 28, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that European and non-European migrants have a different fiscal position from natives only on the extreme tails of the net fiscal position distribution.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 758, 2021

Fiscal Position of Immigrants in Europe: A Quantile Regression Approach – Download PDF
by Joxhe, Majlinda & Scaramozzino, Pasquale & Zanaj, Skerdilajda

GLO Fellow Majlinda Joxhe

Author Abstract: This paper compares the net fiscal position (NFP) of immigrants versus natives using data from the European Survey on Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the period 2007-2015. By employing a quantile regression approach, we find that European and non-European migrants have a different fiscal position from natives only on the extreme tails of the NFP distribution. Non-EU migrants contribute more than natives in the top quantile of the NFP, whereas they are more fiscally depend in the bottom quantile. We also examine the relationship between our calculated migrants’ fiscal position and the fiscal perception of European citizens versus migrants as measured in European Social Survey (ESS) data. The negative perception in some European countries may be entirely driven by the fiscal position of migrants in the lowest quantile. Our results highlight the critical need to better understand the fiscal contribution of migrants in the destination countries for a fair and constructive migration policy.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano and Francesco Carbonero.

January 27, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

Using Italian data combining information on advancements of AI at the occupational level with measures of the required proximity in the job-place and administrative employer-employee data on job flows, a new GLO Discussion Paper finds that AI and proximity exhibit an inverse U-shape relationship at the sectoral level, with high advancements in AI that are negatively associated with proximity.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 765, 2021

Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity? – Download PDF
by Carbonero, Francesco & Scicchitano, Sergio

GLO Fellow Sergio Scicchitano

Author Abstract: Social distancing has become worldwide the key public policy to be implemented during the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the degree of proximity among workers turned out to be an important dimension. An emerging literature looks at the role of automation in supporting the work of humans but the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to influence the need for physical proximity on the workplace has been left largely unexplored. By using a unique and innovative dataset that combines data on advancements of AI at the occupational level with information on the required proximity in the job-place and administrative employer-employee data on job flows, our results show that AI and proximity stand in an inverse U-shape relationship at the sectoral level, with high advancements in AI that are negatively associated with proximity. We detect this pattern among sectors that were closed due to the lockdown measures as well as among sectors that remained open. We argue that, apart from the expected gains in productivity and competitiveness, preserving jobs and economic activities in a situation of high contagion may be the additional benefits of a policy favouring digitization.

Featured image: Photo-by-Alex-Knight-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause People to Be Unhappy? Evidence from a Six-Country Survey. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Cuong Nguyen.

January 26, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the pandemic makes people unhappy in general, but more disadvantaged people including those poor, rural, female and older are more likely to suffer.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 768, 2021

Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause People to Be Unhappy? Evidence from a Six-Country Survey – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Cuong Viet

GLO Fellow Cuong Nguyen

Author Abstract: Does the COVID-19 pandemic cause people unhappy? In this study, we use a recent survey from China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States to explore this question. We find a relatively large effect: a one per-mille point increase in the incidence of the COVID-19 cases increases the probability of unhappiness by 0.002. Possibly channels through which the COVID-19 pandemic causes unhappiness are negative effects on economic outcomes and social interactions of people. We also find that more disadvantaged people including poor, rural, female and older people are more likely to be affected by the pandemic.

Ends;

Europe’s migration experience and its effects on economic inequality. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Martin Guzi, Martin Kahanec & Magdalena Ulceluse.

January 24, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that immigration has contributed to reducing inequality within the 25 EU countries over the 2003-2017 period.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 757, 2021

Europe’s migration experience and its effects on economic inequality – Download PDF
by Guzi, Martin & Kahanec, Martin & Ulceluse, Magdalena M.

GLO Fellows Martin Guzi, Martin Kahanec & Magdalena Ulceluse

Author Abstract: This chapter provides the historical context for the past half-century in Europe focusing specifically on the link between migration and economic development and inequality. The literature review suggests that there are several channels through which migration affects economic inequality between countries in one or the other direction. The net effects are an open empirical question and are likely to depend on the economic, demographic and institutional and policy contexts; sources, types and selectivity of migration, as well as responses of the receiving societies as well as migrants themselves. We undertake an empirical analysis and find that immigration has contributed to reducing inequality within the 25 EU countries over the 2003-2017 period. As the EU attracted relatively highly qualified immigrants throughout this period, our results are consistent with the ameliorating effect of skilled migration on within-country inequality, as predicted by theory.

Featured image: joshua-hoehne-on-unsplash

Ends;

Endogamous Marriage among Immigrant Groups: The Impact of Deportations under Secure Communities. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Cynthia Bansak & Sarah Pearlman.

January 23, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for the USA that deportations increase overall marriage rates and increase the likelihood of endogamous marriages.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 756, 2021

Endogamous Marriage among Immigrant Groups: The Impact of Deportations under Secure Communities – Download PDF
by Bansak, Cynthia & Pearlman, Sarah

GLO Fellow Cynthia Bansak

Author Abstract: We investigate the impact of removals under the Secure Communities (SC) program on the marriage patterns of immigrant women living in the U.S. where endogamous marriage is the dominant form of partnership. We focus on enforcement by MSA and country of origin and find evidence that deportations increase overall marriage rates, increase the likelihood of endogamous marriage, decrease rates of exogamous marriage to immigrants from other countries and have indeterminate effects on marriage to natives. When examining channels for behavioral responses, we find evidence pointing towards the desire to mitigate the risk of deportation through the increased importance of networks.

REPORT & VIDEO OF A PAPER PRESENTATION IN THE GLO VIRTUAL SEMINAR SERIES.

Ends;

Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur and colleagues.

January 22, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that terrorism had less of an influence on voters than is usually thought.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 755, 2021

Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States – Download PDF
by Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Nossek, Sean & Shor, Eran

GLO Fellow Abel Brodeur

Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the political impacts of terrorism. We first confirm that the success of terror attacks is plausibly random by showing that it is orthogonal to potential confounders. We then show that on average successful attacks have no effect on presidential and non-presidential elections. As a benchmark, we also rely on a more naïve identification strategy using all the counties not targeted by terrorists as a comparison group. We show that using this naïve identification strategy leads to strikingly different results overestimating the effect of terror attacks on voting behavior. Overall, our results indicate that terrorism has less of an influence on voters than is usually thought.

Featured image: anthony-fomin-on-unsplash

Ends;

Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Ali Fakih & Colleagues.

January 21, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds ethnicity not to be the crucial factor behind both the civil and ethnic conflict in Syria in 2011.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 754, 2021

Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria– Download PDF
by Abosedra, Salah & Fakih, Ali & Haimoun, Nathir

GLO Fellow Ali Fakih

Author Abstract: While most civil wars seem to have an economic basis, they are generally pushed by political, ethnic, and religious differences. This paper attempts to identify the drivers of the Syrian civil war of 2011 by investigating the role of ethnic divisions in starting a conflict. We integrate a variety of variables such as excluded population, power-sharing, anocracy, ethnic groups in addition to a number of economic factors. The main results indicate that ethnicity does not seem to be a very important factor in starting both the civil and ethnic conflict in Syria, but it shows that the lack of power-sharing to be the most significant factor. Therefore, where power in Syria was not inclusive and shared among different demographic segments, such as religious or urban groups, it created upheavals between different groups, as some groups dis-identify with the state, paving the way to causing the conflict. Economic factors also provide an explanation of the onset of conflicts in Syria. The paper offers detailed policy suggestions that could serve as a recovery mechanism for the Syrian crisis and a preventive measurement for its re-occurrence.

Featured image: Stijn-Swinnen-on-unsplash

Ends;

Conscription and Military Service: Do They Result in Future Violent and Non-Violent Incarcerations and Recidivism? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Xintong Wang and Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

January 18, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the effect of USA military service in Vietnam on incarceration outcomes, with effects among white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 751, 2021

Conscription and Military Service: Do They Result in Future Violent and Non-Violent Incarcerations and Recidivism? – Download PDF
by Wang, Xintong & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso

GLO Fellows Xintong Wang & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Author Abstract: Employing nonparametric bounds, we examine the effect of military service on incarceration outcomes using the Vietnam draft lotteries as a possibly invalid instrumental variable for military service. The draft is allowed to have a direct effect on the outcomes independently of military service, disposing of the exclusion restriction. We find: (i) suggestive but not strong statistical evidence that the direct effect of the draft increases the incarceration rate for violent offenses for a particular cohort of draft avoiders, and (ii) military service increases the incarceration rate for violent and nonviolent crimes of white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts.

Featured image: Stijn-Swinnen-on-unsplash

Ends;

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli and colleagues.

January 17, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 753, 2021

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age– Download PDF
by Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Sandri, Damiano & Spilimbergo, Antonio

GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli

Author Abstract: Overall mobility declined during the COVID-19 pandemic because of government lockdowns and voluntary social distancing. Yet, aggregate data mask important heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality.

Ends;

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli and colleagues.

January 16, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides an assessment of the targeted approach to COVID-19 containment. Under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 752, 2021

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19 – Download PDF
by Checo, Ariadne & Grigoli, Francesco & Mota, Jose M.

GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli

Author Abstract: The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.

Ends;

Consequences of War: Japan’s Demographic Transition and the Marriage Market. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Kota Ogasawara and GLO Fellow Mizuki Komura.

January 14, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 750, 2021

Consequences of War: Japan’s Demographic Transition and the Marriage Market – Download PDF

by Ogasawara, Kota & Komura, Mizuki

GLO Fellow Mizuki Komura

Author Abstract: This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio, and their impact on intra-household bargaining, on both the quantity and the quality of children. We first present the theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of conflicting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male to female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children, but a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio, as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970, in the absence of the decrease in the sex ratio.

Featured image: Stijn-Swinnen-on-unsplash

Ends;

Identity and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Maria Rosaria Carillo and GLO Fellows Vincenzo Lombardo & Tiziana Venittelli.

January 13, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for Italy that immigrants with stronger feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country have higher employment rates, while those who exclusively identify with the host country culture do not have a net occupational advantage.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 749, 2021

Identity and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants – Download PDF
by Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Lombardo, Vincenzo & Venittelli, Tiziana

GLO Fellows Vincenzo Lombardo & Tiziana Venittelli

Author Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between social identity and labor market outcomes of immigrants. Using survey data from Italy, we provide robust evidence that immigrants with stronger feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country have higher employment rates, while those who exclusively identify with the host country culture do not have a net occupational advantage. Analysis of the potential mechanisms suggests that, although simultaneous identification with host and home country groups can be costly, the positive effect of multiple social identities is especially triggered by the enlarged information transmission and in-group favoritism that identification with, and membership of, extended communities ensure.

Featured image: dawid-zawila-on-unsplash

Ends;

Do research universities boost regional economic development? Evidence from China. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Affiliate Shuai Chu and Xiangbo Liu.

January 12, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for China that research universities can have negative effects on local economic development.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 748, 2021

Do research universities boost regional economic development? – Evidence from China – Download PDF
by Chu, Shuai & Liu, Xiangbo

GLO Affiliate Shuai Chu

Author Abstract: This paper studies whether research universities can boost regional economic development through an exogenous shock of a forced relocation of a research university in China. We analyze the development in the treated regions compared with a set of control regions that are created using the synthetic control method and find that research universities can have negative effects on local economic development. We then perform a series of robustness checks. Our main results carry through. By employing a more exogenous shock and more reliable identification strategies, our study provides evidence that research universities do not necessarily promote regional economic development.

Featured image: Photo-by-j-zamora-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Emigration and development. What are the links? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Marina Murat.

January 11, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that policies supporting development in low-income countries are associated with less emigration to all destinations, including the rich economies.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 747, 2021

Emigration and development. What are the links? – Download PDF
by Murat, Marina

GLO Fellow Marina Murat

Author Abstract: The ‘mobility transition’ hypothesis – with emigration first increasing and then decreasing as a country develops – (Zelinsky, 1971) is often interpreted as a stylised fact, which bears the implication that immigration into rich countries will grow as low-income countries develop. This paper tests the relationships between development and emigration from 130 developing countries during 25 years. Results, robust to different semiparametric and parametric specifications, show that emigration from low to middle-income countries declines as income increases, education improves or population growth slows down. The stage of development at home also affects the main destinations of emigration. Immigration into rich economies increases from countries at intermediate levels of development. Hence, policies supporting development in low-income countries are associated with less emigration to all destinations, including that to rich economies.

Featured image: Photo-by-joshua-hoehne-on-unsplash

Ends;

Kicking You When You’re Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Corrado Giulietti and Brendon McConnell.

January 10, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms of UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 at the heart of the government’s austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 746, 2021

Kicking You When You’re Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime – Download PDF
by Giulietti, Corrado & McConnell, Brendon

GLO Fellow Corrado Giulietti

Author Abstract: The UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 imposed a series of welfare cuts, which disproportionately impacted ex-ante poorer areas. In this paper, we consider the impact of these austerity measures on two different but complementary elements of crime – the crime rate and the less-studied concentration of crime – over the period 2011-2015 in England and Wales, and document four new facts. First, areas more exposed to the welfare reforms experience increased levels of crime, an effect driven by a rise in violent crime. Second, both violent and property crime become more concentrated within an area due to the welfare reforms. Third, it is ex-ante more deprived neighborhoods that bear the brunt of the crime increases over this period. Fourth, we find no evidence that the welfare reforms increased recidivism, suggesting that the changes in crime we find are likely driven by new criminals. Combining these results, we document unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms at the heart of the UK government’s austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program. More deprived districts are more exposed to the welfare reforms, and it is these districts that then experience the further negative consequences of the reforms via increased crime. Our findings underscore the importance of considering both multiple dimensions of crime as well as considering different levels of spatial aggregation of crime data. Given that it is violent crime that responds to the (economicallybased) welfare cuts, our work also highlights the need to develop better economic models of non-rational crime.

Featured image: Photo-by-Jose-Antonio-Gallego-Vázquez-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Immigrant Supply of Marketable Child Care and Native Fertility in Italy: A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Rama Dasi Mariani and Furio Camillo Rosati.

January 9, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the recent increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility in Italy.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 745, 2021

Immigrant Supply of Marketable Child Care and Native Fertility in Italy – Download PDF
by Mariani, R. D. & Rosati, F. C.

GLO Fellows Rama Dasi Mariani and Furio Camillo Rosati

Author Abstract: The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of low-skilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if the flow of immigrants as actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants – many of them specialized in the supply of child care – arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that newly arrived immigrant female workers have increased the number of native births by roughly 2 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility choice.

Ends;

Self-employment and Subjective Well-Being. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Martin Binder & Ann-Kathrin Blankenberg.

January 8, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 744, 2021

Self-employment and Subjective Well-Being – Download PDF
by Binder, Martin & Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin

GLO Fellows Martin Binder & Ann-Kathrin Blankenberg

Author Abstract: Self-employment contributes to employment growth and innovativeness and many individuals want to become self-employed due to the autonomy and exibility it brings. Using “subjective well-being” as a broad summary measure that evaluates an individual’s experience of being self-employed, the chapter discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction, even though the self-employed often earn less than their employed peers, work longer hours and experience more stress and higher job demands. Despite being more satisfied with their jobs, the self-employed do not necessarily enjoy higher overall life satisfaction, which is due to heterogeneity of types of self-employment, as well as motivational factors, work characteristics and institutional setups across countries.

Featured image: Photo-by-Elijah-Hail-on-Unsplash

Ends;

GLO Fellows Richard A. Easterlin and Kelsey J. O’Connor debate the famous Easterlin Paradox in a new GLO Discussion Paper.

January 7, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper debates the famous Easterlin Paradox that states that at a point in time happiness varies directly with income, both among and within nations, but over time the long-term growth rates of happiness and income are not significantly related.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 743, 2020

The Easterlin Paradox – Download PDF
by Easterlin, Richard A. & O’Connor, Kelsey J.

GLO Fellows Richard A. Easterlin & Kelsey J. O’Connor

Author Abstract: The Easterlin Paradox states that at a point in time happiness varies directly with income, both among and within nations, but over time the long-term growth rates of happiness and income are not significantly related. The principal reason for the contradiction is social comparison. At a point in time those with higher income are happier because they are comparing their income to that of others who are less fortunate, and conversely for those with lower income. Over time, however, as incomes rise throughout the population, the incomes of one’s comparison group rise along with one’s own income and vitiates the otherwise positive effect of own-income growth on happiness. Critics of the Paradox mistakenly present the positive relation of happiness to income in cross-section data or in short-term time fluctuations as contradicting the nil relation of long-term trends.

Featured image: Photo-by-Elijah-Hail-on-Unsplash

Ends;

The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Michael Poyker and colleagues.

January 6, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper documents a harming effect of the Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 742, 2020

The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News – Download PDF
by Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael & Tian, Yuan

GLO Fellow Michael Poyker

Author Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.

Featured image: Photo-by-Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment Outcomes in Vietnam. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang & Cuong Nguyen.

January 5, 2021Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-21GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the successful lockdown in Vietnam kept mortality amazingly low, but had negative effects on unemployment, the temporary layoff rate, and the quality of employment. It also reduced workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 741, 2020

Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment outcomes in Vietnam – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet

GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang & Cuong Nguyen

Author Abstract: Vietnam is widely praised for its successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has had an extremely low mortality rate of 35 deaths to date (out of a population of approximately 100 million) and currently has no community transmission. We offer the first study that examines the effects of the COVID-19-induced lockdown on various employment outcomes for Vietnam. We employ difference-in-differences econometric models to estimate the causal effects of the lockdown, using rich individual-level data from the quarterly Labor Force Surveys. We find that the lockdown increases the unemployment rate, the temporary layoff rate, and decreases the quality of employment. It also reduces workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages. Our estimation results remain robust to different model specifications and estimation samples. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects vary across education levels and occupation sectors but are similar across regions or provinces with different lockdown durations.

Featured image: Photo-by-Adli-Wahid-on-Unsplash

Ends;

Gender Inequality in Nutrition Intake: Evidence from a Large Assistance Program. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Shiying Zhang and Qing Wang.

December 23, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the effect of one of the largest nutrition assistance programs in early life covering poor rural China. Nutrition supplements effectively increase boys’ weight and reduce their probability of being underweight, while no effect is observed for girls of similar age.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 740, 2020

Gender Inequality in Nutrition Intake: Evidence from a Large Assistance Program – Download PDF
by Wang, Qing & Zhang, Shiying

GLO Fellow Shiying Zhang

Author Abstract: This paper examines the growth effect of one of the largest nutrition assistance programs in early life. The program covers 5.8 million children in poor rural China and provides 6-24-month old children with a free nutrition supplement that contains nine essential micronutrients. We utilize a phase-in procedure by county for identification and estimate its impact on several early-life health indicators. Robust evidence shows that such nutrition supplements effectively increase boys’ weight and reduce their probability of being underweight. No effect is observed on girls of similar age. These health indicators are related to long-term human capital development. The gender differences in policy impact that are identified in this paper have important implications for nutrition subsidy in the early years of life in developing countries.

Ends;

Productivity outcomes in online labor markets and within-task complexity and difficultly. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Nicholas Giannakopoulos and colleagues.

December 22, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the productivity measures used of workers are negatively related to the difficulty and complexity of a specific sub-task.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 739, 2020

Productivity outcomes in online labor markets and within-task complexity and difficultly – Download PDF
by Mourelatos, Evaggelos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Tzagarakis, Manolis

GLO Fellow Nicholas Giannakopoulos

Author Abstract: We analyze the impact of within-task difficulty and complexity on workers’ productivity in online labor markets. Using a randomized control quasi-experiment in AMT we are able to define the difficulty and complexity embodied in requested sub-tasks within a problem-solved task. We find that our productivity measures are negatively related to the difficulty and complexity of a specific sub-task. This finding is robust to several sources of workers’ heterogeneity and to different pay schemes.

Ends;

Identity and Learning: a study on the effect of student-teacher gender matching on learning outcomes. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Anirban Mukherjee and colleagues.

December 21, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper examines whether students’ and teachers’ identity play any role in the learning outcome of students.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 738, 2020

Identity and Learning: a study on the effect of student-teacher gender matching on learning outcomes – Download PDF
by Bhattacharya, Sukanta & Dasgupta, Aparajita & Mandal, Kumarjit & Mukherjee, Anirban

GLO Fellow Aparajita Dasgupta & Anirban Mukherjee

Author Abstract: In this paper we examine whether students’ and teachers’ identity play any role in the learning outcome of students. Specifically, we ask if a student benefits by learning from a teacher of her same gender. Unlike the existing literature which explains such interaction through role model effect or Pygmalion effect, we explain such interaction in terms of gender based sorting behaviour across private and public schools. Our results are driven by two critical differences between male and female individuals. For male and female teachers, the difference comes from their differential transaction costs of traveling to schools at remote locations. For students, the difference between male and female members comes from the differential returns to education accrued to their parents; for girl students, a lower fraction of the return comes to their parental families as they start living with their husband’s family after their marriages. These factors create a sorting pattern which makes the female teachers and students of the highest quality attend private schools in urban location. This creates a positive gender matching effect only for urban, private schools. We find support for our theoretical predictions when we test them using Young Lives Survey (YLS) data collected from Andhra Pradesh.

Ends;

Price, sales, and the business cycle: a time series principal component analysis. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Fernando Borraz and colleagues.

December 20, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment, and performs a time series principal component analysis to study the relationship.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 735, 2020

Price, sales, and the business cycle: a time series principal component analysis – Download PDF
by Borraz, Fernando & Livan, Giacomo & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Ricardo, Pablo

GLO Fellow Fernando Borraz

Author Abstract: The main contribution of this work consist on studying sales behaviour and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators through a time series principal component analysis. We study the correlation structure of a large database on prices and found that all product sectors share a common correlation structure and the highest correlation and significance is achieved between employment variation and the first principal component, mostly in the second week of the following month. Sales or promotions, are a channel for price flexibility because firms can use them to change effective prices keeping sticky reference prices. We use a rich database of retail prices from Uruguay to characterize prices’ flexibility, the behavior of sales, and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators. Finally, we find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component analysis to study these relationships.

Ends;

Mobile applications aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration and overall level of integration, health and mental health. Does artificial intelligence enhance outcomes? A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Nick Drydakis.

December 19, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

Using panel data on immigrant populations from Europe, Asia and Africa, a new GLO Discussion Paper finds positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health and mental health.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 734, 2020

Mobile applications aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration and overall level of integration, health and mental health. Does artificial intelligence enhance outcomes? – Download PDF
by Drydakis, Nick

GLO Fellow Nick Drydakis

Author Abstract: Using panel data on immigrant populations from European, Asian and African countries the study estimates positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health (EQ-VAS) and mental health (CESD-20). It is estimated that the patterns are gender sensitive. In addition, it is found that m-Integration applications in relation to translation and voice assistants, public services, and medical services provide the highest returns on immigrants’ level of integration, health/mental health status. For instance, translation and voice assistant applications are associated with a 4% increase in integration and a 0.8% increase in good overall health. Moreover, m-Integration applications aided by artificial intelligence (AI) are associated with increased health/mental health and integration levels among immigrants. We indicate that AI by providing customized search results, peer reviewed e-learning, professional coaching on pronunciation, real-time translations, and virtual communication for finding possible explanations for health conditions might bring better quality services facilitating immigrants’ needs. This is the first known study to introduce the term ‘m-Integration’, quantify associations between applications, health/mental health and integration for immigrants, and assess AI’s role in enhancing the aforementioned outcomes.

Ends;

Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: Evidence from UK Prolific participants. A new GLO Discussion Paper by Sonia Oreffice and GLO Fellow Climent Quintana-Domeque.

December 18, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies gender differences across multiple dimensions in individual responses to Covid-19 for the UK and attempts to model the various determinants.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 737, 2020

Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: Evidence from UK Prolific participants – Download PDF
by Oreffice, Sonia & Quintana-Domeque, Climent

GLO Fellow Climent Quintana-Domeque

Author Abstract: We investigate gender differences across multiple dimensions after three months of the first UK lockdown of March 2020, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 Prolific respondents residents in the UK. We find that women’s mental health was worse than men’s along the four metrics we collected data on, that women were more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceived the virus as more prevalent and lethal than men did. Women were also more likely to expect a new lockdown or virus outbreak by the end of 2020, and were more pessimistic about the contemporaneous and future state of the UK economy, as measured by their forecasted contemporaneous and future unemployment rates. We also show that, between earlier in 2020 before the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and June 2020, women had increased childcare and housework more than men. Neither the gender gaps in COVID-19-related health and economic concerns nor the gender gaps in the increase in hours of childcare and housework can be accounted for by a rich set of control variables. Instead, we find that the gender gap in mental health can be partially accounted for by the difference in COVID-19-related health concerns between men and women.

Ends;

Unequal effects of the economic cycle on human capital investment. Evidence from Italian panel data. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellow Luca Bonacini.

December 17, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper for Italy suggests that measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrollment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 733, 2020

Unequal effects of the economic cycle on human capital investment. Evidence from Italian panel data – Download PDF
by Bonacini, Luca

GLO Fellows Luca Bonacini

Author Abstract: Human Capital Theory considers individuals’ education as an investment in terms of money, time, effort, and the renouncement of income opportunities that they expect will be compensated during their working life. While these benefits are mainly in the long run, direct and indirect costs are conditioned by the present circumstances, and in particular, by the macroeconomic conditions. The literature investigating the influence of the business cycle on enrolment decisions often suggests a counter-cyclical relationship without considering that economic fluctuations can produce heterogeneous effects among households facing different economic situations. Through a fixed effects regression based on panel data from the Italian component of the EU-SILC survey, I find the existence of a counter-cyclical propensity to enrol that is symmetric to the stages of the economic cycle. However, after disaggregating the analysis by household income quartiles, results show that a 1% increase in GDP reduces the probability of the poorest individuals being enrolled in non-compulsory education by 1.2%, while the wealthier portion of the population shows an a-cyclical relationship. The policy implications of these results are particularly important as they suggest that measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrolment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.

Featured image: Photo-by-j-zamora-on-Unsplash

Ends;

The Impact of a Reentry and Aftercare Program on Recidivism. A new GLO Discussion Paper by GLO Fellows Colin Cannonier & Monica Galloway Burke and Ed Mitchell.

December 16, 2020Discussion Paper, News, Post, Post-20GLO Admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the significant impact of a reentry and aftercare service program in the US on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders which is found to be successful.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 732, 2020

The Impact of a Reentry and Aftercare Program on Recidivism – Download PDF
by Cannonier, Colin & Galloway Burke, Monica & Mitchell, Ed

GLO Fellows Colin Cannonier & Monica Galloway Burke

Author Abstract: In this paper, we explore the impact of a reentry and aftercare service program on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders. Using administrative data within a difference-in-differences design, we find that this social program is associated with a reduction in recidivism rates. Benchmark estimates show that the program was associated with estimated reductions in the probability of recidivating of 6.0 to 8.7 percentage points. The estimate appears to be economically significant as it implies an estimated treated effect in the 15.8 to 19.2 percent range. We consider the heterogeneous effects of the program on reducing recidivism according to race, age group and program type. The program helped to reduce recidivism among Whites but not Blacks; older participants were the main beneficiaries while the effectiveness of the program was observed amongst older participants. Back-of-the-envelope cost-savings analysis is incorporated to estimate the potential savings to the state arising from the reduction in recidivism rates likely attributable to the program. The findings are robust to sample selection bias, alternative specifications and estimation techniques. Our results offer some implications for the role of faith-based social programs within the context of criminal justice reform to combat reentry of former inmates. They also provide a cautionary tale about the need to evaluate programs not just based on their overall effect.

Ends;

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: